Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has the Saints passing game humming
along at the right time. New Orleans is two games behind the Falcons
for the division lead and will need their quarterback to continue
to put up strong numbers to keep the pressure on in the NFC South.
Brees was able to surpass 300 passing yards against the Broncos
stingy defense and I’m expecting an early Thanksgiving Day
feast on the Panthers less than stellar pass defense. The trio
of Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Willie Snead cannot be contained.
Cooks and Thomas have been more consistent producers over the
past month but Snead remains a quality flex option in this offense
(two scores on five receptions vs DEN in Wk 10). In lesser offenses,
the sheer number of quality targets would present a headache for
fantasy owners but the Saints are pacing all NFL passing attacks
with 322 passing yards per game to pair with 24 touchdowns (tied
for first). Coby Fleener’s second best outing of the year
came in Week 6 against the Panthers. Give him the nod in what
should be another high scoring affair this week.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Much like the passing game, the timeshare
situation between Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower is preventing
one player from being an elite fantasy option on a week-to-week
basis. Nevertheless, both running backs have been useful starters
in 12-plus team leagues and the same will be true this week. Over
the first six games of the year Ingram failed to achieve a 4.0
YPC four times. He’s surpassed that mark in two consecutive
weeks and I think you can count on him being a low end RB2 in
good match ups and a RB3/Flex against tougher opponents. Carolina
falls into the latter category but he should do enough in the
passing game to make him a worthy flex. The scoreboard and the
opposing defense are probably going to limit Hightower’s
touches in this game. He’s been effective when given the
volume but Ingram got more carries last week and I think they
will continue to mix it up in the backfield. How many other players
on your roster are going to get 12-15 touches in a high scoring
offense?
Passing
Game Thoughts: Where have Kelvin Benjamin’s touchdowns
gone? This offense should forget about what worked last year and
start understanding that they need to bank on their two studs
in the passing game to overcome their defensive woes. If and when
they do that, Cam Newton and the passing game should come up big
for fantasy owners. Luckily, the Saints present the type of opponent
that will force the Panthers to throw the ball. Back in October,
Newton surpassed 300 yards passing in an overtime shootout. These
teams have tightened up their defenses since then but they aren’t
going to stop points from being scored in this match up. The Panthers
are giving Benjamin plenty of opportunity so it’s only a
matter of time before he busts out with a multiple touchdown performance.
Sign me up for Greg Olsen in a potential shootout against a division
rival. The Saints have been the seventh friendliest defense to
opposing fantasy tight ends. The rest of the receivers offer fantasy
owners a roulette wheel with low payouts.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart will finally find some
room to run Thursday night after facing tough rushing opponents
over the past month. New Orleans has not been as awful against
the run as year’s past but compared to what Carolina has
been facing this should be considered a favorable match up. If
the Panthers can keep this game close or force a few turnovers
then Stewart has a chance to post RB1 numbers. Chances are he
falls just shy with the team turning to the air by the second
half and helps you out as a solid RB2 this week. The only other
“rusher” on this team with fantasy value is the quarterback.
For the first time since Week 1, Newton rushed the ball more than
ten times last week. He did that six times during the 2015 regular
season. Cam will need to win this game with his arm but anything
he adds on the ground is gravy for his fantasy stats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota is still looking for his
first win against Indianapolis and I don’t think it’s
going to come this week. Mariota’s four passing touchdowns
last week give him 14 in his past five games. He’s as hot
as anyone in the NFL and he is doing it on a team without an elite
wide receiver that has run the ball 300 times this season (second
only to Dallas with 303 rushing attempts). Delanie Walker has
been a trusted fantasy option for a while now but are we ready
to anoint Rishard Mathews as a viable weekly starter for our fantasy
teams? Whatever got into Ted Ginn Jr. last year has made its way
to Nashville because Matthews has been on the receiving end of
a touchdown throw in five of the past six weeks. The secondary
stats don’t back up the recent production. He has more than
five receptions in only one game this year and has only had one
game with at least 80 receiving yards. If you are fighting for
a playoff spot I wouldn’t take a chance of staying on this
ride one week too long. Kendall Wright and Tajae Sharpe are pretty
similar to Matthews only with less playing time and touchdowns.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray is making a push to be
the league’s MVP if he can somehow stay healthy enough and
get the Titans into the post-season. The team kept Murray out
of practice on Wednesday this week as a precautionary move to
keep their running back as healthy as possible. There is no reason
to expect the script to change this week. Another twenty plus
touches against the Colts should translate into another premium
outing for Murray’s owners. Understudy Derrick Henry remains
an injury away from being thrust into an enviable position to
help fantasy owners down the stretch. Unless your league has an
abbreviated bench, Henry deserves to be owned as a high upside
handcuff in all formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Donte Moncrief has played in four games
this season and he has three touchdowns. There was a clear void
opposite T.Y. Hilton when Moncrief was out and now Andrew Luck
has had a bye week to fine tune a passing attack that hasn’t
been quite as potent thus far in 2016. Tennessee’s defense
has given up at least two touchdowns in six of their past seven
games so the matchup is plenty favorable for Indy’s pass
catchers. T.Y. Hilton has cooled off considerably with subpar
outings in three of the past four weeks but that one good outing
was versus the Titans in Week 7 (seven receptions for 133 receiving
yards and a touchdown). He’s one of eight receivers in the
NFL averaging 10 targets per game coming into Week 11 and a must
start fantasy option. The return of Dwayne Allen in Week 9 didn’t
cut into Jack Doyle’s stat line too much but things could
be different with the team getting an extra week of rest. You
know what you are getting into by trying to pick the right tight
end in Indy. If you can’t find a better option like Kyle
Rudolph or Zach Ertz then give Doyle a try and go find your lucky
rabbit’s foot.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Indianapolis is running the ball slightly
less than they did last year but they have one of the most consistent
fantasy running backs in Frank Gore. In an era with so many fantasy
owners needing to roster part time running backs Gore offers fantasy
owners quality depth that is vital through the bye weeks. He has
had moderate success against the Titans in the past and shouldn’t
have much of an issue putting up typical Frank Gore numbers which
is about 75 total yards with a 50/50 percent shot at finding pay
dirt. Plugging Gore into your RB2 slot is never sexy but he has
fallen short of 10 standard fantasy points only twice this season.
Robert Turbin and Josh Ferguson continue to see minimal work in
this offense and are not on the fantasy radar this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers travel
into Cleveland this week to face their long time division “rivals”,
the Browns. While the Steelers average about 11 points less per
game on the road than they do at home, the Steelers passing game
still looks attractive facing a team that has allowed at least
2 passing touchdowns nine times this season and at least 3 passing
touchdowns six times this season. All in all the Browns have allowed
a league worst 25 passing touchdowns. The Steelers downfield passing
attack should present major problems for the beleaguered Browns.
Big Ben and Antonio Brown are obvious starts for fantasy owners
but those in deeper leagues should look at Eli Rogers as well
who has finished in the top 30 the last two weeks and faces a
Browns team that cannot stop slot receivers. Ladarius Green may
finally see extended playing time this week, but at best should
still be splitting reps with Jesse James making each a risky start
even in this nice matchup.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell finally found the endzone
last week – once on the ground and once through the air
- which added to a monster week by the league’s best back.
Bell is averaging 132.2 yards per game from scrimmage and even
when he’s shut down as a runner he’s still a fantasy
force because of his receiving prowess. Bell’s 9.3 targets
per game would remarkably land him 14th on the list of wide receiver
targets. Against a Browns team that is allowing 143.7 yards per
game on the ground and has given up 12 rushing touchdowns, another
monster game for Bell is in sight.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie Cody Kessler is not a fantasy option
outside of deep 2QB leagues, but he’s at least made a fantasy
star out of Terrell Pryor (51-647-4). Pryor’s best games
have come with Kessler under center. Pryor could see double digit
targets this week with the Browns expected to be in serious catch-up
mode all game. Corey Coleman’s return from a broken hand
has been quiet so far - he hasn’t cracked the top 50 in
his two games back, but he should also see a good amount of targets
this week. Gary Barnidge’s 2015 season (79-1043-9) is looking
like one of the league’s all time outliers, as the big tight
end had totaled 44 receptions with 3 touchdowns in his first six
seasons in the league and has only 37 receptions this season with
no touchdowns. At this point there’s no reason to trust
him in your lineup.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns constantly fall behind quickly
which deflates their running game. Isaiah Crowell got off to a
great start to the season but now has a total of 157 yards on
the ground in his last six games. He does manage to find the endzone
once every two games on average so that would be the only hope
for any owner that has to start him this week out of desperation.
The game script should not be in his favor, but third-down back
Duke Johnson should benefit from the Browns trying to claw their
way back into the game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer has disappointed this season
after a career renaissance last year in Arizona. He’s thrown
for only 11 touchdowns and has been picked off 8 times in his
eight games this season. His passing yards have been on the uptick
over his last three starts, clearing 300 yards in each of them,
but he has only 4 touchdowns in those games with three of them
coming in one game. While the Vikings have been on a downward
spiral, their passing defense has remained one of the best in
the league allowing only one quarterback to finish as a QB1 (in
12 team leagues). Larry Fitzgerald is having his typical productive
season but a knee injury that briefly knocked him out of last
week’s game threatens his Week 11 status. Should he miss,
Michael Floyd, J.J. Nelson and John Brown will need to pick up
the slack, but Floyd and Brown have mostly disappointed this season.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: David Johnson has a nine game streak of
at least 100 yards from scrimmage. Like Le’Veon Bell, Johnson
has shown to be matchup proof even against tough run defenses
given his versatility and high volume in the passing game. His
weekly floor is extremely high based and his 10 total touchdowns
make his ceiling arguably as high as anyone in the league. The
Vikings are allowing only 97 yards per game and have yielded 4
rushing touchdowns, but Arizona should be able to at least try
and move the ball on the ground in what should be a close game.
When all is said and done Johnson should keep his 100-plus yards
streak going and a trip to the endzone is probable as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Stefon Diggs has been on fire recently seeing
back-to-back double digit reception totals, and he is the first
Minnesota wide receiver to exceed 150 receiving yards multiple
times in a season since Sidney Rice was playing with Brett Favre.
The Cardinals feature one of the better corner backs in the league
in Patrick Peterson and overall are the top rated passing defense,
allowing only 195.2 yards per game and 6 scores through the air,
but slot wide receivers have found success against them all season.
While the talk this week is that Peterson will shadow Diggs, the
reality is that Diggs spends most of his time in the slot and
Peterson does not. Still the mere threat does dampen expectations
a bit. Sam Bradford has put up decent fantasy numbers in recent
games but the Cardinals have been able to completely shut down
opposing passing games. Diggs’ recent volume makes his floor
high and him hard to bench, but otherwise it’s difficult
to recommend any other Viking players.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: This section really writes itself this
week, but can be summed up rather easily and succinctly by stating
that: This game features the league’s worst rushing attack
going against the toughest matchup for fantasy running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Detroit Lions are allowing a fairly
respectable 259.3 passing yards per game, but they have allowed
the third most passing touchdowns in the league with 20 on the
season. They are also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete
nearly 75% of their passes. This all sets up well for Blake Bortles,
but unfortunately he has played so poorly this season that he
is hard to trust. The “King of Garbage Time” is still
reigning however as the Jaguars have trailed on 75% of their offensive
possessions so passing volume is seldom an issue and he is often
able to pad his stats. Allen Robinson has picked up his production
after a slow start, in part as a result of the aforementioned
passing game volume, as he’s seen double digit targets in
three straight games. Although corner Darius Slay should return
this week, Robinson can still be trusted due to an expected healthy
volume of targets.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: The running game volume, however, has
not been there this season for the Jaguars and that combined with
Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon’s timeshare has made this a
backfield to avoid. Yeldon, at least, has been part of the team’s
passing game giving him some value in PPR leagues, but with Ivory
seeing the goal-line work Yeldon’s ceiling is limited. For
those needing to start one or the other Yeldon is likely the way
to go with Detroit expected to be able to move the ball and with
the Lions having only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: During the first five weeks of the season,
Marvin Jones out-targeted Golden Tate 41 to 31, but that has flipped
around in Tate’s favor, 43-23, during the last four games.
Throwing to Tate has become the Lions “running game”
for the most part as the athletic Tate is thrown to near the line
of scrimmage and expected to gain yards with his elusiveness.
That game plan should continue this week against a Jaguars team
that has struggled with slowing down the short passing game. Matthew
Stafford has been up and down from a fantasy standpoint, but has
his team atop the NFC North and has run the offense masterfully
while limiting turnovers. This has some potential to be a down
week for fantasy as the Jaguars are only allowing 203.7 passing
yards per game, but they have given up 14 passing touchdowns,
so a couple of touchdown passes could salvage his fantasy day.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Theo Riddick has grabbed hold of the Lions’
starting running back job, but he has shown little ability to
gain yards on the ground. As with Golden Tate, Riddick is peppered
with short passes in lieu of a running game. Zach Zenner, is the
preferred “big back” option for the team but his usage
has been minimal. The Jaguars are yielding big yardage on the
ground (124 ypg) and have allowed 9 rushing touchdowns on the
season, but it’s hard to imagine Detroit establishing a
running game. Riddick’s value comes in the passing game
however so don’t be afraid to get him in your lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor has performed adequately as
a fantasy and NFL quarterback this season, showing a relatively
high floor in fantasy and as a guy that can do enough to win games
for the Bills. However, there are better options for you fantasy
team and Taylor likely is capped as a middle of the road NFL field
general. His running ability knocks his fantasy numbers up enough
that you’ll very likely never see single digit points if
you need a one week flier, but his lack of accuracy and field
vision keeps his ceiling fairly low most weeks. Of course it doesn’t
help that once Sammy Watkins went down he was left with less than
stellar receiving options. The fact that Robert Woods is seeing
heavy targets for the Bills tells you all you really need to know.
Percy Harvin is expected to see more action in this game. He’s
a name to keep your eye on but it’s unlikely his fantasy
value rises to any significant level. The Bengals defense has
been a tremendous disappointment. The Bengals have allowed 19
passing touchdowns on the season and are giving up the third most
fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so Matt Ryan
or Philip Rivers’ owners may want to look and see if Taylor
is available.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals have been fairly stout against
the run allowing 116 rushing yards per game and just one runner
to reach 100 yards on his own, but they do allow 19.2 points per
game to opposing running backs. A versatile back like LeSean McCoy
should have little trouble in racking up yards given the volume
he should see. While Mike Gillislee has been worked into the offense
in order to spell McCoy, it is hard to imagine McCoy seeing less
than 20 touches this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton leads his team in a must win
game against a Buffalo team that has allowed their opponent to
find the endzone frequently over the last three weeks. Tyler Eifert
should play a major role against a team that struggles to stop
opposing tight ends. He has looked like himself over the last
two weeks after being worked in slowly his first week back from
ankle and back injuries. The Bengals have run their passing game
through Eifert and A.J. Green and while the wins haven’t
been coming, the passing game has been clicking. The Bills have
allowed each of the quarterbacks they have faced the last two
weeks to finish as a QB1, and with the Bengals supporting cast
at full strength, that streak should continue.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Just like last season Jeremy Hill has
had an up and down season, and his fantasy value from week to
week is contingent on him finding the endzone. Hill owners can
therefore find some hope that the last four power backs the Bills
have faced (Christine Michael, LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and
Todd Gurley) have done just that and the Bills have allowed 11
rushing touchdowns overall on the season. In what should be a
close game from start to finish Hill should not disappear in favor
of passing down back Giovani Bernard, as he has from time to time.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston is becoming a weekly QB1
option. Winston has passed for at least two touchdowns in each
of his past four games, including surpassing for over 300 yards
this past week for the first time since Week 3. While Mike Evans
has struggled in a couple of games lately, he continues to be
one of the most highly-targeted players in all of fantasy football
and will continue to be a WR1 no matter the matchup. Another player
on the rise is tight end Cameron Brate who has now scored a touchdown
in three straight contests. The Bucs will be up against a middle-of-the-road
Kansas City defense that has done a great job of forcing turnovers,
but have been susceptible to the pass. In fact, they’ve
given up at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in six straight
contests. Justin Houston, the Chiefs’ best pass rusher,
could be back this week. If he does get back on the field, that
could be a huge boost to their pass defense as a whole.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Doug Martin returned this
past week, taking back his starting role in the Tampa Bay offense,
but still splitting carries with the young back Peyton Barber.
It wasn’t a great game for the returning star tailback as
he rushed for just 33 yards on 16 carries. Martin is expected
to get back to his role as the team’s feature back, but
that still won’t likely mean a full workload this week.
Still, with the high number of injuries at the position and the
bye week forcing a few top backs to sit, Martin is a solid RB2
with a solid floor and RB1 upside in this matchup against the
Chiefs. Kansas City hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since
Week 4, but they’re still just a middle-of-the-road defense
that can be beaten up by opposing running games if the team opts
to commit to running the football.
Passing
Game Thoughts: We’ve known for a long time that Alex
Smith is not an every week starter in fantasy football, but the
lack of production that we’ve seen from him in recent weeks
has been disappointing even knowing his history. Sure, he missed
Week 9 due to injury, but he’s now thrown just three total
touchdown passes in his past four starts combined. With Travis
Kelce failing to eclipse even five fantasy points (standard scoring)
in four of his past five games and Jeremy Maclin dealing with
a groin injury that could lead to him missing another game, the
only player in the Kansas City passing game is the newly emerged
Tyreek Hill. Hill caught 10 passes this past week against the
Panthers with Maclin on the sidelines and is in line for another
good matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has given up the
second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
We won’t expect the Chiefs’ depleted receivers to
come close to the 237 yards that the Bucs have given up on average
to the position over their past three games, but Hill is still
an intriguing play in a great matchup.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Don’t let the recency bias keep
you from getting Spencer Ware into your lineup in Week 11 as the
Chiefs’ lead back could be in line for a huge game in what
could very well be a blowout win. The Buccaneers have been absolutely
horrible against opposing running back this season, including
having given up at least 113 rushing yards to the position in
each of their past three games. They’ve also been quite
exploitable by running backs in the passing game, having given
up the seventh-most receiving yards to the position so far this
season. This is important to note specifically for Ware because
he’s quietly been quite productive as a pass catcher this
season. In fact, he ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards
per game at the running back position. Ware’s struggles
as of late will likely cause some owners to bench him, but this
is as about as good of a matchup as can be asked for when you
own a back like Ware.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been an extremely disappointing
start to the season for Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing
game, but it’s at least somewhat inspiring to see that they
were able to get some production going this past week against
the Chargers. Tannehill threw for multiple touchdowns for the
first time since Week 3. Unfortunately, that increased production
didn’t lead to much from top receiver Jarvis Landry. Landry
has now failed to surpass 100 receiving yards or score a touchdown
since he did both in Week 3. Landry is still a WR2 with a high
floor in PPR formats, but he’s about the only player in
this passing game who fantasy owners should be at all interested
in. Unfortunately, this isn’t a great matchup for Landry
or Tannehill, as they’ll be up against a Rams defense that
ranks in the top 10 in fewest fantasy points per game to both
wide receivers and quarterbacks.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: He failed to run for 100 yards for the
first time since Week 5, but Jay Ajayi continues to get plenty
of work in this much improved Miami offense that has been centered
around the running game. Ajayi has touched the ball at least 20
times in each of his past four contests, which makes him one of
the highest ceilings of all fantasy options at the running back
position. In Week 11, he’ll be running against an underrated
Los Angeles defense that has given up an average of just 71 rushing
yards per game over their past four. On the surface, though, this
seems like a game that could easily turn into a big day for Ajayi.
The Rams are quite good against the pass and their own offense
isn’t good enough to really pull away from teams, so this
should be another game where Ajayi touches the ball 20 or more
times, which should be enough to make him an RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The pressure from the media and fans might
be finally getting to Los Angeles head coach Jeff Fisher who is
reportedly now strongly considering giving No. 1 overall draft
pick, Jared Goff, the first start of his career. Case Keenum has
failed to throw multiple touchdowns in four of his past five contests
and while Goff might give new life to the offense, the chances
of him drastically improving on those numbers are pretty low.
Fisher and the Rams won’t likely give him the full reigns
of the offense until he’s proven himself, which won’t
likely happen anytime soon. Whoever starts will be against a Miami
defense who was beaten up by Philip Rivers and the Chargers this
past week but had held their three previous opponents to three
total passing touchdowns. Kenny Britt has been quietly productive
recently and he’ll be the one to watch in this matchup,
but he’s still only a Flex option.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley’s 2016 season is living
proof that simply getting carries does not necessarily translate
into fantasy production. Gurley has touched the ball an average
of 19 times per game, but he’s exceeded eight fantasy points
(standard scoring) in just two contests. He also hasn’t
scored since Week 5. The Dolphins have only been average against
the run this season, but Gurley remains an RB2 until he starts
giving his fantasy owners some more production.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz started the season off as one
of the hottest young passers in the league, but a recent lack
of success has brought a cloud of doubt over the entire Philadelphia
passing game. Wentz has thrown for a total of just two touchdowns
over his past five games while also failing to exceed even 250
passing yards in four of those five contests. While he’s
been efficient and his mediocre production hasn’t been a
huge drain on the team as a whole, a matchup against the Seahawks
isn’t likely to turn things around. Seattle continues to
be a dominant defense, having given up just two passing touchdowns
over their past four games – and that includes games against
the likes of Carson Palmer, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Jordan Matthews
has been solid recently, but it’s tough to trust him or
anyone in the Eagles passing game in such a difficult matchup.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: After being almost completely forgotten
about in recent weeks, Ryan Mathews exploded with his first 100-yard
rushing game of the season this past week against the Falcons.
Mathews also added a pair of touchdowns on the ground, making
it four total in his past three games. Darren Sproles continues
to produce primarily as the Eagles’ passing down back, but
Mathews seems to be re-staking his claim as the team’s main
back. The Eagles backs will be running against a Seattle defense
that sounds a lot more punishing than they really have been this
season. In fact, Seattle ranks just 16th in fantasy points given
up opposing running backs after giving up three touchdowns to
LeGarrette Blount this past week. It’s never ideal to be
up against the Seahawks defense in Seattle, but if there’s
a time to do it, it might be now with defensive end Michael Bennett
still sidelined with an injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Much like he did in 2015, Russell Wilson
seems to be starting a second half surge that could help propel
him to the top of the quarterback leaderboards for the year. Wilson’s
348 yards against the Patriots in Week 10 were a season high and
his three passing touchdowns also tied a season high. He’s
still not running the ball much, but his overall mobility appears
to be improving so there’s a real possibility that some
nice rushing yardage days are on the way. Wide receiver Doug Baldwin,
who had not scored since Week 3, caught all three of Wilson’s
touchdowns this past week -- a number that he isn’t likely
to produce again, but that certainly proved his status as the
team’s top pass catcher going forward. Tight end Jimmy Graham
continues to produce at a high level given the relative lack of
production from other players at the position throughout the league.
This whole unit has a tough matchup against a Philadelphia defense
that has been excellent against the pass so far this season. They
were beaten up by Eli Manning and the Giants in Week 9, but they’ve
held opposing quarterbacks to two or fewer touchdowns in all but
two games. All three players are still likely must-starts despite
the tough matchup, but do understand that their upside is a bit
capped in this game.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: After surprisingly cutting their leading
rusher for the season, Christine Michael, the Seahawks appear
ready to move forward with rookie runner C.J. Prosise. Prosise
is expected to be joined by the returning Thomas Rawls who has
been practicing fully this week for the first time since his injury
in Week 2. While Rawls was the team’s starter at the position
when he went down, most believe that Prosise will continue with
his role as the team’s passing down back while likely also
taking the majority of the early down work, at least until Rawls
is fully back up to speed. Either way, these backs might have
a tough day producing much as they go up against a Philadelphia
defense that has only given up one rushing touchdown to a running
back since Week 2. They’ve been playing very well as of
late, having given up an average of just 75.5 rushing yards per
game over their past four contests. We don’t know for sure
what the breakdown of carries will be which makes both Prosise
and Rawls a bit risky, but they could be worth a shot depending
on your situation.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners of Patriots quarterback Tom
Brady have been a bit spoiled since the former NFL MVP returned
from his four game suspension, but even the best quarterbacks
are not immune to having a bad game against great defenses like
Seattle’s. Brady threw for an impressive 316 yards in the
loss, but failed to throw a touchdown for the first time this
season. He also threw his first interception of the season. He
should have a much easier time against the 49ers here in Week
11, though, as the Patriots head to San Francisco to face the
49ers. San Francisco has been awful all season as they’ve
given up at least 12 points to every quarterback they’ve
faced since Week 1. Brady may be without his top target, tight
end Rob Gronkowski, who is dealing with a lung injury that he
suffered in the Week 10 loss. If Gronkowski does not play, tight
end Martellus Bennett instantly becomes an elite option at the
position. Either way, though, both tight ends are playable as
TE1’s if they’re on the field. Wide receiver Julian
Edelman has continued to struggle to put up big games, but his
overall usage appears to be increasing enough to make him a solid
WR2 in PPR formats. Chris Hogan is the only other player in this
passing game who should be considered for fantasy, but he continues
to be a boom-or-bust type player who has busted much more often
than he’s boomed.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: After he ran over and through the Seattle
defense for three touchdowns a week ago, it would be hard to not
be excited about the prospects of LeGarrette Blount facing the
league’s worst fantasy run defense here in Week 11. Blount
has to be considered one of the top options in the entire league
this week. The 49ers held David Johnson in check on the ground
in Week 10, but they’ve still given up at least one rushing
touchdown in every game since Week 2 and a total of 13 rushing
touchdowns over their past seven contests. With the Patriots likely
to get out to a lead in this game, it could be a huge usage day
for Blount, which will give him huge upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you look beyond the media scrutiny that
he’s faced for his off-field decisions, Colin Kaepernick
has actually been a solid fantasy quarterback since taking over
the 49ers’ starting job in Week 6. Kaepernick has rushed
for an average of 57 yards per game -- by far the best of any
quarterback in the league this season -- which has given him a
very high floor even in games where the 49ers have been blown
out. No one else in the passing game is producing with any sort
of consistency whatsoever, but Kaepernick himself is a viable
option against a Patriots defense that just gave up nearly 350
yards passing and three touchdowns to Russell Wilson this past
week.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Having Carlos Hyde back on the field is
certainly a good thing, but it didn’t do much this past
week as Hyde rushed for an embarrassing 14 total yards on 13 carries
against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are certainly an elite rushing
defense, but the Patriots -- who Hyde will face this week -- aren’t
much worse. New England hasn’t allowed a team’s group
of running backs to rush for more than 103 yards against them
this season and they’ve only given up two total rushing
touchdowns to the position since Week 2. Hyde’s high usage
does make him a useful option as an RB2, but his upside is likely
capped in this game as Patriots are likely to get out to a significant
lead, which would mean far less opportunities for Hyde.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The hugely disappointing season continued
this past week for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins who has now failed
to produce high-end numbers in back to back games in what should
have been two good matchups against the Lions and Jaguars. Hopkins’
status as a WR1 is now off the table and the question is starting
to become the question. Hopkins has produced double digit fantasy
points (standard scoring) in just once since Week 2. Quarterback
Brock Osweiler doesn’t seem to be improving as he threw
for just 99 yards in Week 10. That marks four out of his past
five games that Osweiler hasn’t even thrown for 200 yards.
That type of downside, and a lack of real upside, has made Osweiler
a terrible fantasy option all year and it’s really affecting
everyone in this passing game. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz is the
only other player in the passing game who should be even considered
as a fantasy option, but he’s been inconsistent and hasn’t
really had any huge games so far this season. The Raiders have
given up four receiving touchdowns to tight ends over their past
five games, though, so there is a decent chance that he or Ryan
Griffin gets into the end zone.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Lamar Miller is dealing with
an ankle injury which has him listed as questionable heading into
Monday night’s game against the Raiders. Miller is expected
to play, but wise fantasy owners should keep an additional roster
spot open to pick up Alfred Blue should Miller not be able to
go. Miller has been by far the most exciting and consistent fantasy
option in this Houston offense so far this season and the majority
of that has come from the high number of touches that he’s
getting. Miller has already touched the ball 190 times this season
in just nine games -- an average of over 21 touches per game.
This usage gives him one of the highest floors in the entire league
at the position even in tough matchups. The Raiders have been
decent as of late against the run, but they’ve been beaten
up by teams like Kansas City, Baltimore and Tennessee who’ve
committed to running the ball against them. If the Houston defense
can play well enough to keep the offense in the game for the majority
of the day, Miller should again approach 20 touches which should
give him a good opportunity to near 100 total yards with a good
possibility of a touchdown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Oakland quarterback Derek Carr is a legitimate
candidate to win NFL MVP this season and he’s been a huge
asset for fantasy owners as well. Carr failed to throw a touchdown
in their last game as he went up against an elite passing defense
-- the Broncos. This, of course, led to some poor production from
the team’s top wide receivers, Amari Cooper and Michael
Crabtree. Unfortunately, the Raiders will be up against another
high-end pass defense here in Week 11 as they head to Mexico City
to face the Texans at a neutral field. Houston has given up the
fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season
and they’ve yet to allow a single quarterback to give up
more than two passing touchdowns or throw for 300 yards so far.
Still, Carr is a low-end QB1 and the duo of Cooper and Crabtree
are low-end WR1’s or high-end WR2’s given that they
are practically the only players who touch the ball in the Oakland
passing game.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Earlier this season it appeared that Latavius
Murray’s grasp on the Oakland running back job was slipping
away, but he has certainly begun to re-establish himself as the
team’s primary back as of late. Since returning from injury
three games ago, Murray has now touched the ball 57 times, which
has led to five rushing touchdowns over those three contests.
Coming off a bye, Murray will now be up against a Houston run
defense that has given up an average of over 100 rushing yards
per game this season with nine total touchdowns to the position.
Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington will still likely get between
five to 10 touches each, but Murray should get the majority of
the goal line touches, which gives him upside as an RB1 in this
contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Do you know who is terrible at football?
Jay Cutler. If someone ever asks you what it looks like when a
player completely does not care at all, just direct them to last
week’s game against the Bucs. There is a better shot the
Browns win the Super Bowl than Jay Cutler throwing a pass for
the Bears in 2017. His only touchdown was a miracle hail mary
at the end of the first half to Cameron Meredith. Other than that,
Meredith didn’t catch another pass. This is normally the
part where I tell you to go ahead and drop Meredith if you haven’t
already. Instead, you need to go grab him because, as you all
know by now, Alshon Jeffery has been suspended four games for
violating the substance abuse policy. The good news, if you’re
an Alshon owner, is now you don’t have to decide whether
you should bench him, the decision is made for you. Barely a WR3,
losing him is not as big of a deal as you might think. Cutler
will make another start because the alternative is Matt Barkley,
but only two teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than
the Giants. You want no part of Cutler and no part of the Bears
passing attack.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard had a great game last week,
rushing for 100 yards on just 15 carries. The Giants only allow
3.6 yards per carry, but Howard is capable of producing in a less
than ideal matchup, especially given how poor the passing game
is. The problem is he left last week’s game with an ankle
or Achilles injury…or did he? John Fox said he did, but
when asked about the injury, Howard said, “Nah, I ain’t
suffer nothing?” Given how the Bears treat injury news like
CIA missions, do not expect much clarity on the matter. We do
know that Howard practiced in full on Wednesday, so it appears
there’s nothing to worry about. He may still be listed as
questionable on Friday, though. Ka’Deem Carey and Jeremy
Langford would split carries if Howard cannot go, but neither
of them should be of any interest unless you are really strapped
by injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For the second consecutive week, Eli Manning
was gift wrapped the game. For the second consecutive week, Eli
Manning threw a backbreaking interception. For the second consecutive
week, Eli Manning got away with it. Manning has been a turnover
machine and Monday night ensured that 2016 would not end Manning’s
career long streak of double digit interceptions every season
(excluding his rookie season where he only started nine games).
From a fantasy perspective, you can deal with the turnovers when
he’s throwing multiple touchdowns. Manning now has seven
touchdown passes over his last two games. On Monday, he finally
got Odell Beckham Jr. his first double digit reception game. Beckham
now has scored a touchdown in four of his last five after avoiding
the end zone for the first four weeks. Sterling Shepard also scored
last week and is reemerging as a flex option. Manning still does
not look good and is still rarely progressing beyond his first
read, whom he throws it to regardless of whether he’s open.
But Manning is doing enough for Beckham and the Bears are just
bad enough to allow Manning to be considered as a streaming option
this week.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Please, just make it stop. Not just the
awful runs on 2nd and 10 that consistently go nowhere. The running
altogether. Make it stop. Rashad Jennings managed 87 yards on
15 carries, but most of those came with the Giants running out
the clock. He actually should’ve had more, but either Marvin
Lewis is a terrible coach or his players are actively trying to
lose football games because those are the only explanations for
why the Bengals would’ve tried to tackle Jennings on the
game’s final run after he was 20 yards past the first down
marker. But I digress. Jennings is not a reliable option and Paul
Perkins was even worse, managing 31 yards on nine carries. The
Bears allow 3.7 yards per carry and have given up the fourth-fewest
fantasy points to running backs. Jennings and Perkins should be
off your radar.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week, Joe Flacco had his first three-touchdown
game since November 15, 2015, almost a full year to the day. Flacco
has had 15 three-touchdown games in his career. Given the sample
size of his nine year career, we can reasonably speculate he has
just one more of those performances left in him this season. I
doubt it comes this week against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed
15 passing touchdowns on the season, but only two teams have fewer
interceptions than the Cowboys (4). The Cowboys are still without
Barry Church and Mo Claibourne, but Orlando Scandrick should play
and Byron Jones is playing extremely well. Flacco really spread
the ball around last week with nine different players catching
passes. Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta are the most reliable options
in terms of targets, but only has two touchdowns on the season
and Pitta not only has none, but does nothing with his catches.
Mike Wallace has been a WR2 this season, but he is still too boom
or bust for my liking. If I had to choose, I’d go with him,
but I don’t like any Ravens pass catchers this week. Flacco
projects as a high floor, low ceiling option.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens really want Kenneth Dixon to
be the guy. He is getting every opportunity and last week was
the first time he started to make something of it. Dixon amassed
38 yards on his six carries, but did his real damage in the passing
game with five catches for 42 yards. Dixon had one bad drop, but
overall looks comfortable catching passes out of the backfield
and looks poised to continue in that role going forward. Terrance
West is serviceable, but 3.1 yards per carry against the Browns
is not what you’re looking for. If I had to choose one,
it would be Dixon as I expect the Cowboys to jump ahead early
and force the Ravens to throw to keep up, which means more Dixon
than West.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a bittersweet Tuesday for me, as
the world received confirmation of two things. 1. My fears about
what would happen to the Cowboys post Romo have been assuaged.
2. The Tony Romo era is over. I’m thrilled that my team
won’t mire in QB oblivion like the Jets or Browns have for
years, searching for the next guy, but it’s sad to see a
guy like Romo go out like that. I expect he will continue playing
next year, but I really wanted to see him win in Dallas. But life
goes on, and so does the brilliant play of guy who won’t
win rookie of the year or MVP, but probably deserves both, Dak
Prescott.
Prescott had his first career 300-yard game last week in 2016’s
game of the year thus far against the Steelers. A large chunk
of Prescott’s yards came on a slip screen to Ezekiel Elliott
that went 83 yards to the house and on a 50-yard bomb to Dez Bryant.
The most impressive part of Prescott’s performance is that
for the first time all season, he did nothing on the ground (literally,
he had zero rushes). Prescott has accounted for multiple touchdowns
in every game since Week 3 and should be treated as an elite QB1.
Dez Bryant had an elite WR1 performance, but I still need to see
more consistent usage to treat him like the guy we know he can
be. Cole Beasley’s streak of 50 yards in every game came
to an end, but he still caught 5 balls for 33 yards, again showcasing
his high PPR floor. Outside of PPR leagues, however, you don’t
need Beasley starting for you every week. The Ravens allow the
fifth lowest passing yards per game at 210.2 and they’ve
forced 11 interceptions this season. Prescott does not turn the
ball over and while I don’t see him surpassing the Ravens’
average by much, the Ravens’ pass rush might result in some
lofty numbers on the ground. The Ravens do not scare Dak and they
do not scare me.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott is going to win rookie
of the year. He shouldn’t. But he will. Young Zeke is going
to break 2,000 yards from scrimmage in an all-time rookie season.
Against the Steelers, he had 114 yards on the ground and 95 yards
in the air. He can’t be stopped. The reason I’m anti-Zeke
for rookie of the year is because despite my proclamations about
Prescott, the real MVP of the NFL in 2016 is the Dallas Cowboys
offensive line that is going to go down as potentially the greatest
line of all time. Elliott has gaping holes to run through. Prescott
has all day tp throw. On Zeke’s 83-yard touchdown, I don’t
think he was touched. The Ravens have the best rushing defense
in the league, allowing a league low 3.3 yards per carry and 71.3
yards per game. Unfortunately for them, Zeke is completely matchup
proof. Debating Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel
Elliott as the No.1 overall pick in 2017 drafts is going to be
a lot of fun next year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I never thought I’d see the day where
Aaron Rodgers has to “Blake Bortles” his way to stats.
Last week, that’s exactly what happened. The Packers never
had a chance against a vastly superior Titans team, but garbage
time began in the second quarter for Rodgers & Co., which
resulted in 371 yards and two touchdowns to go along with two
picks. Rodgers added a third touchdown on the ground. It was Rodgers’
fourth consecutive game with at least three touchdowns. Jordy
Nelson saw an Antonio Brown-esque eighteen targets, reeling in
twelve of them for 126 yards and a score. Jordy has reestablished
himself as Rodgers’ go-to target. The next guy on the totem
pole is clearly Davante Adams (6-156 on nine targets). He has
passed Randall Cobb, who continues to play his way into irrelevancy.
Cobb will surely have some strong games, but he is a far cry from
the reliable floor option of years past. The Redskins have allowed
a mere ten passing touchdowns on the season, but this one should
be high scoring enough for Rodgers to be fine.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Well, the Ty Montgomery experiment was
fun while it lasted. I have to say this surprises me zero. Montgomery
is not a running back so the moment a real running back was healthy
enough to play, the Packers went right back to him. That man is
James Starks and despite him being terrible at football, he is
going to be fantasy useful because he is a starting running back
on a good offense. Starks only handled seven carries last week,
mostly because the Packers were losing by a lot immediately, but
he was on the field for about 70 percent of the offensive snaps.
He is the clear lead back and can be a volume RB2 on a good day.
Only the Chargers have allowed more rushing touchdowns (14) than
the Redskins (13). If there are goal line carries to be had, Starks
will be the one taking them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the most consistent QBs this season
has been Kirk Cousins. While last week was his first turnover
free game since Week 2, it was also his sixth game with multiple
scores. I hesitate to applaud his efforts being against a quality
defense because nothing about the Vikings has been quality over
the past month or so, but Cousins has proven trustworthy and matchups
don’t get much easier than the Packers, who just got eviscerated
by Marcus Mariota for 295 yards and four touchdowns on just 19
completions. The biggest beneficiary of Mariota’s outburst
last week was Delanie Walker, which bodes very well for Jordan
Reed this week. Look for a big game out of Reed and Jamison Crowder
as the Packers struggle to contain them over the middle. DeSean
Jackson looks poised to return, but that will only hurt Pierre
Garcon, who you weren’t starting anyway. Crowder’s
two game 100-yard streak came to an end, but he found the end
zone to salvage his line. He is not a weekly WR2, but this is
a matchup where I’d trust him to be one. The Packers have
allowed 19 touchdown passes this season. I think Cousins is good
for at least two.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: I’ve spent many of these write-ups
lambasting Matt Jones. I can’t do that this week because
Jones didn’t even play. He’s not hurt. He’s
just not good at football. Rob Kelley, on the other hand, has
been playing well. He’s a complete zero in the passing game
and isn’t flashy on the ground, but he will get what’s
blocked and is not afraid of contact. He reminds me a bit of LeGarrette
Blount. If Kelley continues to see 20 carries, he will be a low
end RB2 with high end RB2 upside when he scores. He is the only
back receiving goal line carries. Chris Thomspon reminds a floor
option, good for a couple receptions and 20-30 yards on the ground.
If he scores, consider yourself extremely lucky. His ceiling is
about ten points. The Packers only allow 84.4 rushing yards per
game. This one should be an air force battle as opposed to the
army, but Kelley is probably a safe RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
