Passing
Game Thoughts: The news surrounding Jordy Nelson (ribs)
early this week gave the wideout “a shot” to play
this weekend. Nelson’s ribs were confirmed to be broken
but he has been able to practice on a limited basis throughout
the week. If we were to play with this painful injury it is likely
that he will be used very selectively throughout the game, limiting
his chances to produce for fantasy owners. That should equate
to more time in the spotlight for Davante Adams. The 2014 second
rounder has racked up 22 targets in Green Bay’s two playoff
games thus far but his status is also in limbo due to a sore ankle.
He won’t practice until Saturday when the coaching staff
will evaluate him and make a call on his playing status. This
sounds like a sprain with swelling being the major threat and
a tender hoof being the best case prognosis. Anyone tempted to
consider Nelson or Adams will need to assess the situations on
Saturday. Injuries aside, Randall Cobb adds a dimension to the
offense that I believe will be a difference in this game. He has
more than quickness, he has elusiveness. The Falcons will struggle
to get their hands on him once he catches the football. The YAC
potential pushes his ceiling a little higher this week making
him one of my preferred choices at the position. Knowing that
the team may not have its full complement of receivers healthy
will make Cobb a popular choice this weekend. Geronimo Allison
would be expected to see more playing time with Nelson sidelined
if he can overcome a sore hamstring. Same protocol applies to
Allen as the other injured Packer receivers; check back later
in the week and place your bets accordingly.
Jared Cook’s key reception at the end of last week’s
divisional game set up the game winning score. He’s had
stretches of very useful fantasy lines (see Weeks 5 through 7)
but hasn’t been all that consistent over the 2016 season.
There is no doubt that the Packers have made him a bigger part
of their post season plans than they did during the season and
he doesn’t come with a huge price tag in short term formats.
Considering the state of the receiving corps and other TE options
this week he will be a nice value play at the TE position that
should yield a quality return on investment. Do you really need
advice on Aaron Rodgers? He’s coming off four straight 300-yard
passing games, has already has six post season touchdowns and
will be playing in a shootout. We did see him struggle through
the 2015 season when he didn’t have his receivers so keep
that in mind if the worst case scenario unfolds leading up to
game time.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Green Bay’s rushing attack finished
the regular season ranked 20th in yards per game as they struggled
to find consistency due to injuries and a preference to let their
quarterback throw the team to victory. Ty Montgomery has been
the team’s best fantasy running back and he’s having
a good run in the post season. Despite rushing for two touchdowns
last week, that was only the third game he has found pay dirt
this season. He doesn’t get many carries (only one game
with more than 11 carries in 2016) and is completely reliant on
bolstering his stats in the passing game. Nevertheless, there
is some hope to be optimistic for anyone looking for cheaper running
back options this week. Atlanta’s front seven ranks 24 of
32 according Pro Football Focus (link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-defensive-front-sevens-this-season/)
so expect Green Bay to be effective when they do choose to run
the ball. Aaron Ripkowski has been an effective short yardage
specialist but without the security of more touches he remains
a risky fantasy play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Atlanta might be the most impressive offense
remaining in the playoffs but they feel like the biggest underdog.
A lack of a Super Bowl ring will serve as added motivation for
Matt Ryan. Seattle may have been playing on the road and at less
than full health on defense but the league’s top passing
offense during the regular season proved that it is a force to
be reckoned with in these playoffs.
Green Bay did accumulate the sixth most quarterback sacks over
the first 16 games of the year, but they tied for allowing the
second most passing yards per game and gave up 58 passing plays
of over 20 yards (tied for fourth most in the NFL). That’s
even more worrisome when considering the fact that Green Bay was
in the middle of the league in defensive passing attempts faced
(571 ranks 17th). Pro Bowler Julio Jones leads the way for the
passing attack. Matt Ryan knows he won’t be able to force
the ball into Jones but he will still garner his fair share of
targets which should translate into plenty of scoring opportunities
for fantasy owners. In fact, you can argue that he has the highest
ceiling amongst all fantasy receivers this week considering the
number of big plays this defense has allowed on the year. Beyond
Jones, Matt Ryan simply mixes in the rest of the supporting cast
which usually yields mixed results for fantasy purposes. Taylor
Gabriel gets the nod over Mohamed Sanu as the second best receiving
option due to his ability to make plays downfield and a higher
chance at cashing in on his opportunities yet both should be flex
options. Levine Toilolo has not done much of anything despite
receiving the lion’s share of the snaps at tight end for
the Falcons over the past two weeks so leave him off the roster
again this week.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The chicken and waffles of Atlanta’s
success are the running backs and offensive line. If you are hungry
for fantasy success, check out Devonta Freeman. This guy rushed
for a first down on 26.9 percent of his carries during the regular
season behind a solid offensive line led by Pro Bowl Center Alex
Mack. Although Tevin Coleman’s touchdown tallies have kept
his fantasy usefulness higher than most backups, Freeman continues
to secure about 55 percent of the workload in the backfield. In
most offenses he would be a middling RB2, but on the NFL’s
highest scoring team he offers fantasy owners far more consistency
and upside than your typical RBBC running back. 100 total yards
and a touchdown seem to be the floor for him these days making
him one of the most attractive options at the position this weekend.
Green Bay has improved against the run throughout the year but
they will be facing one of the league’s most balanced top
offensive units. Not only will the Packers be forced to defend
both sides of the ball, but they will need to keep Coleman surrounded
when he gets the balls in his hands. Atlanta’s other RB
should keep the Packers’ linebackers busy in key situations
forcing some mismatches in the passing game and plenty of game
breaking potential when he finds some room to run. The path to
victory lies behind the running game keeping Aaron Rodgers off
the field as much as possible. If you like their chances then
invest in Atlanta’s “dirty birds.”
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger is arguably the best
quarterback the Patriots will have faced all season long, with
only Russell Wilson (who beat the Patriots) able to make a case
for being better. I’m sure most have seen the internet memes
identifying the dregs of the league that the Patriots have beaten
this season. Ben missed the first meeting between these teams
with a knee injury, and Landry Jones was able to keep the game
closer than expected. That was at Heinz Field however. The Steelers,
as well as the Patriots, are far different beasts when playing
at Gillette Stadium. Big Ben has struggled in recent weeks and
is hardly peaking at the right time heading into this contest.
Roethlisberger has thrown six touchdown passes to eight interceptions
over his past five games. Roethlisberger’s struggles away
from home are well documented and while he didn’t play all
that poorly last week at Arrowhead, the Steelers failed to score
a touchdown. The Steelers will not be able to beat the Patriots
by kicking field goals. Bill Belichick is well known for his strategy
of attempting to eliminate the opposing team’s best weapons,
and letting the supporting cast try and beat him. The Steelers
two best weapons, of course, are Le’Veon Bell and Antonio
Brown. However, in the past two meetings Belichick has let Malcom
Butler shadow Brown without any help, with less than stellar results
for New England. In those games, Brown caught 16 passes for 239
yards and a touchdown with most of that coming against Butler.
It will be interesting to see if Belichick adjusts this strategy
this weekend.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The Steelers have shifted the emphasis
of the offense Le’Veon Bell’s way during the second
half of the season which coincided with their eight consecutive
wins. Over the past eight games, the Steelers have run the ball
on 49.6 percent of their offensive snaps, up from 35.7 percent
in the prior games – three of which were played with Bell
serving his suspension. The Steelers will need to lean heavily
on Bell this week as well, in order to help ease Ben’s road
struggles as well as to keep Tom Brady in his big winter jacket
on the sideline. The Patriots were the league’s fourth best
defense against the run this season and as mentioned above, Belichick
will obviously try and scheme to limit Bell’s impact on
the game, but with a back as versatile as Bell that’s no
easy task.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While Tom Brady has looked a little more
mortal since Rob Gronkowski was lost for the season, he is, by
any standard, still playing at an extremely high level. In the
AFC Championship game, he will get to face a pass defense that
he has a history of success against. In six career games against
the Steelers under Mike Tomlin, Brady has thrown 19 touchdowns,
without being intercepted, while averaging 315 passing yards per
game. Martellus Bennett is not Rob Gronkowski, but is one of the
more talented tight ends in the league in his own right. However,
whether it’s been due to injury or being kept in to block,
he just hasn’t been involved in the passing game, even with
Gronk sidelined. Bennett has totaled just 18 receptions for 201
yards on 30 targets over the past eight games with no more than
five targets in any of those games. Julian Edelman who struggled
earlier in the season was the one to step up in Gronk’s
absence. Over the final seven weeks, Edelman led the league in
targets (88) and receptions (50) while posting the third most
receiving yards (649) after Gronk was no longer in the line-up.
Edelman has contributed 9 and 11 receptions in the past two meetings
with the Steelers, and is a safe bet to lead the team in catches
this week against a young Steeler secondary.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis has been the lead back for
the Patriots over the past month, out-touching LeGarrette Blount
40 to 22 in the first half of games during that span. Last week
against the Texans it was even more apparent as Blount was virtually
non-existent. Lewis was even used in the red zone as he scored
two offensive touchdowns (and one on a kickoff return) after having
just six career touchdowns coming into that game. Lewis should
lead the backfield production once again, as the Steelers have
been good against the run, but they have struggled against backs
catching passes from out of the backfield. Should the Patriots
get out to a big lead after halftime, do expect to see more of
a shift to the battering ram like Blount though as has been the
case all season.
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