Passing
Game Thoughts: Paxton Lynch got the start in Week 5, but
it appears that the Broncos will move back to Trevor Siemian (shoulder)
as they head to San Diego in Week 6. Siemian has had his struggles,
but he has also shown that he can put up decent numbers in the
right matchup. Siemian is a fringe QB2, especially given the Broncos’
struggles along the offensive line, but his receivers –
Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas – remain very fantasy
relevant. The roles have been a bit reversed this year from what
they were in 2015 with Sanders getting a much larger share of
the targets, which has led to 32 receptions through five contests
for Sanders. While Thomas has not seen nearly as many targets
come his way, he has been efficient enough to remain a viable
weekly starter. While the Broncos don’t pass all that much
to begin with, the fact that such a high share of the targets
go to their top two receivers gives both players a high floor,
especially in matchups like the one they face here in Week 6.
The Chargers have conceded an average of 174 yards per game to
opposing wide receivers.
SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Those who
invested in C.J. Anderson early in the season have started to
see some concerning developments in the past few weeks. Anderson
touched the ball a total of 47 times in the first two weeks of
the season, but has since touched it just 49 total times in his
past three games combined. The downtick in touches has certainly
been affected by gameflow as the Broncos fell behind the Falcons
in Week 5. However, the increased playing time going to rookie
Devontae Booker is becoming much more of a problem than we assumed
it would be at this point. Booker hasn’t been particularly
explosive with his touches which should help Anderson keep his
job, but even giving up five to seven touches per game is a major
blow to Anderson’s fantasy value. Nevertheless, Anderson
is in a great situation this week as he’ll be running against
the league’s second-worst fantasy defense against opposing
running backs. The Chargers have already conceded nine total touchdowns
to opposing running backs and while no back has eclipsed 100 yards
rushing against them, Anderson is probably the best back they’ve
faced so far this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers hot start continued this past
week and the veteran has now thrown for 320-plus yards in three
straight contests. Of course, he’s certainly benefited from
playing against some of the league’s worst pass defenses
(IND, NO, OAK), but the fact that he continues to produce big
numbers even though he’s working with a group of receivers
that he’s hardly played with should give fantasy owners
some hope even in this tough matchup against the Broncos. Denver
has held opposing QB’s to just three passing touchdowns
in their five games and their pass rush continues to be fearsome
as they are tied for the league lead in sacks. The merry-go-round
of wide receiver production continues to make playing any of the
receivers a big risk, but at least one of the group of Travis
Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman has had a big game
in each of the Chargers most recent games. Benjamin seems to be
the most consistent producer so he should be the only one of the
group who is in fantasy lineups as anything better than a low-end
flex. At tight end, Both Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry got into
the end zone this past week, but there are only so many tight
end targets to go around. Unless we see one player pull away in
targets, both Henry and Gates should probably be on most fantasy
benches in this tough matchup.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon’s
end zone drought from 2015 is now a thing of history as the second-year
back has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season.
The yardage hasn’t always been there, which is a concern,
but the fantasy points continue to be there as the Chargers offense
remains extremely productive. A matchup against Denver might sound
daunting on paper, but the Broncos have actually been quite giving
to opposing backs this season. They’ve conceded over 600
total yards and a total of six touchdowns to the position in five
games. Gordon has been used much more in the passing game since
the injury to Danny Woodhead and with Dexter McCluster listed
as questionable with a hamstring injury, there’s good reason
to believe that Gordon will be on the field quite a bit on Thursday
night, even on passing downs. Look for a heavy share of touches
for Gordon in this game which should lead to some solid yardage
and a good chance at a touchdown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He hasn’t yet thrown for more than
two touchdowns in a game this season, but aside from one poor
performance, Alex Smith has been his usual self so far in 2016.
Smith is an ideal, consistent QB2 for those in two quarterback
leagues, but his lack of upside limits him in most contests. His
Week 6 matchup against the Raiders might be the exception as the
Raiders have been one of the league’s worst fantasy pass
defenses, having already conceded 12 passing touchdowns and an
average of a whopping 338 yards through the air. It’s also
worth noting that Smith tossed a pair of touchdowns in each of
his two games against this defense in 2015. The only wide receiver
from this offense who should be in fantasy lineups is Jeremy Maclin
who has been a bit disappointing catching just one touchdown so
far, but he’s averaging five receptions per game and should
be in line for plenty of targets against the Raiders. Tight end
Travis Kelce is the top fantasy option in the Kansas City offense
at the moment as he’s practically being force-fed the ball
in the red zone. His 22 receptions leads the team through four
games and Kelce has real potential to be the top-scoring fantasy
tight end this week as he goes up against an Oakland defense that
has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position so
far this season, including over 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns
to the Chargers’ tight ends this past week.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Coming out of their bye week, all eyes
are on Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles who has been telling
the media that the “training wheels” are coming off
and that he feels as fast as ever. It’s hard to believe
that Charles will be given a full workload this early in the season,
especially given that Spencer Ware has been playing extremely
well, but all signs seem to point to Charles regaining his status
as the team’s primary ball carrier as early as this week.
Trusting Charles or Ware might be a bit risky right now due to
the lack of certainty, but if you’re looking for a defense
that this duo could exploit, Oakland is a good place to start.
The Raiders are giving up an average of 156 total yards per game
to opposing running backs and they’ve already been exploited
for five total touchdowns by the position this season. Charles
may be worth a flier in your Flex position or even as an RB2 for
those in trouble, but understand that putting he or Ware in your
lineup comes with a considerable risk.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Oakland quarterback Derek Carr continues
to impress and he now ranks as the No. 3 quarterback in standard
scoring formats. The improved Raiders offensive line continues
to protect him as they’ve given up the fewest sacks in the
league, which has allowed Carr to get the ball to his top two
targets, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. The two wide receivers
have been targeted almost an identical amount so far this season
with Cooper getting the slight edge with 47 targets to Crabtree’s
44, but Crabtree’s usage in the red zone has made him the
far better fantasy play as he’s hauled in five touchdown
receptions to Cooper’s one. The only other Oakland wide
receiver to have over 10 targets on the season is Seth Roberts
with 22. But despite his three touchdowns, Roberts is only worthy
of a stash in deep formats for now. Tight end Clive Walford should
also be on fantasy benches for now until we see his targets increase,
particularly in the red zone. One thing to watch in this matchup
is that the Chiefs did an excellent job of limiting Cooper to
just six catches for 89 yards in their two matchups in 2015. Crabtree
also struggled to get much going, but was able to supplement his
79 total receiving yards in two games with a touchdown in each
contest. Don’t expect the Chiefs to line top cornerback
Marcus Peters up against either Crabtree or Cooper on every play,
which should mean that both players will have opportunities to
make big plays.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: The Oakland running game seems to be a
complete crapshoot at the moment, which is never ideal for fantasy
purposes. Original starter Latavius Murray (toe) missed this past
week’s contest, leading to a two-headed attack from rookies
DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. The two backs were used
almost completely evenly as they both touched the ball 14 times.
Richard was slightly more effective, mostly due to his work in
the receiving game, but neither player did much to separate himself
as the better player. To make matters worse, it was Jamize Olawale
– a fullback – who got the goal line touchdown. Murray
has missed practice throughout the week, leading to speculation
that he will again be a gametime decision at best. Even if he
does play, we could see the Raiders implement a three or even
four-man backfield, which certainly does not make for a great
situation, even against a Kansas City defense that is giving up
the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. There
is production to be had here, but the Raiders coaching staff talking
about how they will feed the “hot hand” doesn’t
give us much of an indication as to who will get the touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan currently sits as the top-scoring
overall player in standard scoring formats with a surprising 1,740
yards and 12 touchdowns with only two interceptions. His production
has been consistent practically every game, even while his top
receiver, Julio Jones, has been held to under 30 yards in two
of his five games. Ryan has utilized other pass-catchers in the
offense, particularly running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin
Coleman, to check-down opposing defenses to death. Tight end Jacob
Tamme started the season off strong but has been battling nagging
injuries in recent weeks and has since fallen back to reality,
making just six total catches over his past three contests. The
matchup that everyone will be looking forward to is of course
the battle between Jones and cornerback Richard Sherman. Jones
struggled to find much separation against an excellent Denver
secondary this past weekend and while Sherman is certainly capable
of holding him in check, it’s worth noting that Sherman
typically does not follow opposing teams’ top receivers
around the formation. Look for the Falcons to try some different
things, including lining Jones up in the slot, to get him some
separation. This might be one of the toughest matchups he’ll
face all season, but Jones remains a WR1 due to his incredible
upside.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: It’s not often that a team has the
top-scoring fantasy quarterback and still has a running back worthy
of weekly fantasy consideration, but the Falcons have been able
to take that even a step further by providing not one but two
fantasy-relevant running backs. Both Devonta Freeman and Tevin
Coleman have had excellent games this season and while they’ve
also been held in check in other contests, they’re doing
enough to be considered RB2’s on a weekly basis. Coleman’s
usage has been much lower so far this season than Freeman’s,
but he’s averaging nearly 20 yards per reception which has
made him an incredible asset, particularly in PPR formats. That
number will certainly fall back to reality at some point, so be
careful of regression, especially in a tough matchup like the
one he’ll face in Week 6 against the Seahawks. Only the
49ers and Carlos Hyde have broken through against this defense
for more than 60 yards in a game on the ground and the Seahawks
have allowed the second-fewest number of receptions (16) to opposing
running backs so far this season. Freeman and Coleman have both
produced well against the odds so far this season, but understand
that it’s unlikely that both of them will produce RB2 numbers
in this matchup. If you’re choosing between the two, Freeman
is likely the better option simply because of his higher usage
at the moment.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a terrible start to the season, Russell
Wilson finally broke out in Week 4 with an impressive 300-plus
yard, three touchdown performance against the Jets. Wilson and
the Seahawks have since had a full week to rest and prepare for
an important Week 6 matchup against the Falcons. While Atlanta’s
offense has allowed them to overcome their poor defensive performances
and still walk away with wins in most of their games, fantasy
owners of Wilson and members of the Seahawks passing game should
be salivating as they head into this game. The Falcons have already
given up 14 passing touchdowns and over 1,500 yards through the
air in their first five games, including four games where they’ve
given up three or more touchdown passes. Wilson seems to be getting
into a groove with tight end Jimmy Graham which could spell disaster
for the Falcons defense that has given five scores to the position
on the year. Meanwhile, wide receiver Doug Baldwin should be in
line for a nice share of targets, making him a very nice WR2 with
WR1 upside. Unfortunately, other members of the Seattle passing
game including Tyler Lockett have not yet been able to provide
any sort of consistency, thus making them benchable even in this
great matchup.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The breakout season for running back Christine
Michael could very well continue here in Week 6 as he will be
up against an Atlanta defense that hasn’t been particularly
good against opposing running backs, giving up an average of 4.3
yards per carry on the ground. While Atlanta has certainly proven
to be a worse pass defense, there still should be plenty of touches
for Michael, especially if Seattle chooses to implement a more
ball control style of offense, which they’ve typically done
in the past against high-powered offenses, versus trying to match
them blow for blow in a shootout. With Thomas Rawls still expected
to be out another month or so, the only other back in the offense
to be worried about is the newly-acquired C.J. Spiller who did
score a touchdown as a receiver in the Seahawks’ most recent
game, but does not pose much of a threat to Michael for standard
carries out of the backfield. He’s been disappointing in
the past, but the lack of quality players at the running back
position this season has made Michael a borderline RB1 in matchups
like this.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Perhaps the biggest fantasy news of the
week comes from the Jets offense where wide receiver Eric Decker
will be placed on IR and will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery.
Decker’s absence should mean increased playing time and
more targets for wide receiver Quincy Enunwa, but he was already
playing quite a bit even when Decker was healthy. Brandon Marshall’s
role shouldn’t change much as he’s the clear top target
in the offense. The player who is most affected, unfortunately,
is quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick’s value definitely
takes a dip with Decker out, as the Jets really don’t have
another player who can step in and fill Decker’s shoes in
the offense. Newly-acquired tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins
might also get a bit more playing time with the Decker injury,
but he’s going to need to prove that he can stay healthy
before he’s on the fantasy radar. The big concern this week
is that one of the league’s best cornerbacks, Patrick Peterson,
might be able to keep Marshall in check while Tyrann Mathieu will
likely be lined up against Enunwa for much of the day. Mathieu
is still not fully back to where he was in 2015 prior to his season-ending
injury, but he is the kind of player who could give fits to Enunwa.
As such, Fitzpatrick shouldn’t be used this week even in
two-QB leagues and Enunwa should only be a Flex in PPR formats.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Preseason hype saw Bilal Powell getting
a lot of love right before fantasy drafts took place, but veteran
free agency acquisition Matt Forte was certainly the lead dog
early in the season. Now five games into the season, we’re
beginning to see why Powell was getting attention from savvy fantasy
owners. Powell is still only getting a handful of carries per
week, but his usage in the passing game should be as exciting
for his owners as it is alarming for Forte owners. Forte’s
touches have decreased every game since Week 2 and while he’s
still touching the ball a decent amount, he’s also conceding
a lot more to Powell, particularly in games where the Jets fall
behind by multiple scores. That could happen again here in Week
6 as the Jets head to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Arizona ranks
about middle-of-the-pack against the run, but if their own offense
is able to put points on the board early, it could lead to New
York being forced to pass the ball much more than they’d
otherwise like to. While Forte has shown the skillset throughout
his career to make plays in the passing game, there’s no
question that he’s lost a step in that area and Powell is
beginning to make a case that he should be the team’s primary
back on passing downs. While this doesn’t make Powell a
superstar even in PPR formats, it does make him a viable flex
option and it certainly hurts Forte’s value enough that
he’s more of a mid-to-low-end RB2 in matchups like this.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Arizona fans that were upset with what they’d
been getting from Carson Palmer early in the season are likely
to be excited to have the veteran passer back this week as his
replacement, Drew Stanton, went just 16-of-43 for 124 yards in
the team’s Week 5 victory over San Francisco. While Stanton
did also throw a pair of touchdowns, the offense was a shell of
itself without Palmer who is expected to be back after missing
this past week’s game due to a concussion. Wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald continues to be the stud producer in all formats
as he’s caught at least five passes in each game this season,
but John Brown and Michael Floyd have been so incredibly inconsistent
that it’s becoming tough to even trust them as Flex options
at this point. The Jets defense has been awful against opposing
passing games so far this season, so there’s a real opportunity
for production in this game, but it’s still very risky to
go with either Brown or Floyd. Fitzgerald can be considered a
low-end WR1. He’ll likely see a lot of attention from Darrelle
Revis, but Revis has struggled early in the season – enough
so that we shouldn’t consider this a particularly difficult
matchup.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: In a sea of first round picks that have
had disappointing starts, one player stands out as having produced
solid numbers in every game so far this season. That player is
second-year Arizona running back David Johnson. Johnson has been
getting the job done on the ground, but his added usage in the
passing game makes him perhaps the best running back in all of
fantasy football, and maybe even the most valuable player in the
entire league due to the relative position scarcity. Johnson’s
Week 6 matchup isn’t particularly great on paper, however,
as he’ll be running against a New York defense that has
conceded the second-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing
running backs so far this season. They’ve also given up
just one rushing touchdown on the year. There is hope, however,
even in this difficult matchup as the Jets have actually been
quite giving to opposing running backs in the passing game, which
is certainly an area where Johnson can do some damage. They’ve
given up three receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs
already and with the Cardinals likely to pass the ball quite often
in this game, Johnson looks like a good bet to get five or more
catches, thus making him an even better PPR asset than he normally
is. He might not be as strong of a play as he has been in recent
weeks, but Johnson is still a rock solid RB1 who has the potential
to put up huge numbers in any matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There isn’t much positive news on
the Browns passing game these days. Cody Kessler is looking like
he will play coming off a rib injury that forced him to leave
the team’s Week 5 game. Charlie Whitehurst was released
and Kevin Hogan was promoted from the practice squad. Kessler
hasn’t topped 250 passing yards or thrown for multiple touchdown
passes in any game this season and the Titans boast one of the
better all around defenses. This is definitely a “they have
to throw it to someone” situation where somebody in the
passing game will end up being a useful fantasy option. Terrelle
Pryor would seem to have the most opportunity as he is being used
as a runner and passer to go along with 29 targets over the past
three games. Gary Barnidge has been a steady of late but he still
plays on a team that ranks in the bottom ten for passing yards
and touchdowns so it’s hard to get too excited. Taking a
chance on any of these guys, including Andrew Hawkins, isn’t
recommended. I’d rather roll the dice on a lower tier guy
with more upside this week such as Cameron Meredith (vs. Jax),
Kenny Britt (at DET) or Tyler Lockett (vs. ATL).
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: As the quarterback situation continues
to evolve, the Browns will continue to live and die by the effectiveness
of the ground attack. Luckily for them, Isaiah Crowell has been
up to the task by leading this unit to a solid 5.0 YPC over the
first five games. Nonetheless, he faces a pretty tough opponent
this week. The Titans are in the top third when it comes to fewest
fantasy points allowed to running backs but Crowell was able to
find pay dirt the last time these two teams squared off. The sputtering
passing game leaves the Browns with little choice but to run the
ball and that means Crowell should see enough carries to get him
into RB3 territory. Duke Johnson isn’t an option outside
of PPR leagues and even then his value is limited to a flex role.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota is coming off his best outing
of the year after notching four touchdowns, including one via
the run. Most of his damage was done on shorter, high percentage
throws as the team only amassed 169 passing yards in Week 5. He’s
a borderline starter in twelve team leagues going up against a
Cleveland defense that has been the fifth most generous to fantasy
quarterbacks on the year. I’d go ahead and give Mariota
a long look due to the Browns’ struggles with the tight
end position. The Patriots plotted out a perfect blueprint on
how to use playmaking tight ends to beat this defense so expect
Tennessee to do a copy and paste with Delanie Walker. After missing
Week 4, Walker figures to pace the pass-catchers once again in
this match up and give Mariota just enough production to warrant
a start in deeper formats. After a huge preseason rise in fantasy
value that carried over to seven receptions in Week 1, Tajae Sharpe
has seen his stats steadily decline over the past month. He’s
right on the roster bubble in deep formats but I would try to
hold onto him. Tennessee is set to play a few teams that can score
but have average to below average pass defenses over the next
month starting with Cleveland this week.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: I’m not sure if the running game
is the bread or the butter to the defense, but it has sure been
effective with DeMarco Murray leading the way. The Titans rank
fourth in rushing attempts on the year and only the Cowboys have
accumulated more rushing yards to date. One of the best rebound
stories of the year, Murray now has at least 19 touches in every
game. More of the same in a favorable match up makes the former
Cowboy and Eagle a candidate to finish to be the top performer
at the running back position in Week 6. Derrick Henry has been
forced into a handcuff role for fantasy purposes. He should see
his value increase over the course of the year as the carries
start to mount and the weather gets colder but isn’t getting
enough work to crack a fantasy lineup this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: All of the talk about the Colts this week
stems from the amount of pressure team’s are putting on
Andrew Luck and the staggering amount of sacks the Colts have
allowed (a league worst 20 and rising). Is this really a surprise
for a team that went into the year with Frank Gore leading the
running game? Opposing defenses know the Colts are going to run
the ball about 20 times and spend the rest of the game throwing
so teams with a good pass rush will get to Luck. Such is the case
with Texans. I know J.J. Watt is sidelined but Houston’s
13 sacks on the year place them seventh in the league and figure
to be a big factor in this weekend’s game. Perhaps this
explains why Luck has thrown for over 200 yards just twice in
six career games against their division rival.
Houston is giving up the fifth fewest points to receivers but
T.Y. Hilton has already gone over 170 yards receiving twice this
year and has yet to be held to single digit targets. Hilton can
flat out get open regardless of the competition and is a no-brainer
to be in your lineup this week. The same can’t be said for
the other pass catchers in this offense. Donte Moncrief is week-to-week
with a shoulder injury but doesn’t look like an option for
fantasy owners in Week 6. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t done anything
since Moncrief went down and Andrew Luck has relied more on his
tight ends to move the chains. Dwayne Allen scored last week and
has been more productive than Jack Doyle in recent weeks. Both
of these players are touchdown dependent fantasy options going
up against a team that has yet to give up a touchdown to a tight
end.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: The best way to slow down a pass rush
is to run the ball. Frank Gore is more than capable of grinding
away this game on the ground but Indy’s defense will likely
undermine the running game. So long as the Colts are giving up
nearly 30 points a game - they are tied for the second most in
the NFL with 29.6 points per game - the offense will have a hard
time making Frank Gore anything more than a low end RB2. That’s
pretty much what you drafted him to do and Houston’s defense
hasn’t been a brick wall by allowing six rushing touchdowns
over five weeks. Keep him locked into the lineup for Week 6. The
Texans front seven has allowed only twelve receptions to running
backs on the year so this might not be the best week to take a
gamble on Josh Ferguson.
Passing
Game Thoughts: DeAndre Hopkins had 42 receptions and 578
yards through the first five games last year; about double of
what he has posted this season. To be blunt, this offense is sucking
the upside out of one of the most dynamic receivers in the league.
If not for his touchdowns, Hopkins would already be tagged with
the bust label. Most teams have chosen to beat up the Colts on
the ground and I expect Houston to follow that blueprint in Week
6. Hopkins will get his fair share of targets and is certainly
worth a start but the prospects of him “going off”
remain low. Will Fuller is coming off his worst game of the year
but should be line for a modest rebound this week with the Colts
defense trying to find an answer to Hilton. Jaelen Strong played
in 72-percent of Houston’s offensive plays last week (seeing
9 targets) and appears to be ahead of Braxton Miller on the depth
chart. He remains a player to monitor and could become a waiver
wire pickup if this offense starts to improve. After seeing 10
targets against the Patriots, Ryan Griffin has tallied 11 in his
past two games combined. That is significant for a team that barely
threw to the tight end in 2015 but not enough to garner much fanfare
in the fantasy realm.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Houston is struggling to get the running
game going despite plenty of effort to do so. After running into
a buzz saw versus the Vikings, Lamar Miller squares off against
a defense that has given up the fourth most fantasy points to
running backs with a chunk of that ranking due to giving up three
passing touchdowns. All of this bodes well for Houston getting
its first rushing touchdown of the year and invigorating an offense
that has failed to score 20 points in three of its past four outings.
The Colts just let a rookie playing behind a less than stellar
Chicago offensive line rush for 118 yards on only 16 carries.
All signs point to Lamar Miller finally having a performance worthy
of a running back taken in the first round of drafts. Tyler Ervin,
Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes continue to jockey for position
on the depth chart. Blue has done well in relief work over the
past couple of weeks but he isn’t a threat to Miller’s
carries.
Passing
Game Thoughts: All eyes are on Cam Newton and his concussion
protocol this week. He was limited Wednesday and practiced in
full on Thursday so it’s starting to look more realistic
that he will indeed suit up in Week 6. One of Newton’s best
fantasy games last season came on the road against the Saints
so his owners should be ready for a huge return to the lineup.
Greg Olsen didn’t disappoint a week ago against the Bucs
and I would expect him to carry that momentum over into this week’s
clash versus the Saints. In his last three games against New Orleans,
Greg Olsen has averaged 9 catches, 111 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
so keep riding this wave. Owners in deeper leagues needing a “Hail
Mary” play may want to consider Ted Ginn Jr., Devin Funchess
or Philly Brown. This trio is overdue as a group but Brown’s
arrow is pointing in the right direction heading into this contest.
He not only started last week, but saw only four fewer offensive
snaps than Ginn, and had three more than Funchess.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Cameron Artis-Payne’s run as the
starter is ending with the return of Jonathan Stewart. I do think
the former Nittany Lion has earned some carries moving forward
but his fantasy stock rapidly diminishes with a return to a backup
role. Meanwhile, Stewart’s return transforms the running
game from a weakness over the past month, into a strength. I’m
banking on low-end RB2 output despite a little rust in his first
game back and the potential for Newton to steal some red zone
carries. Don’t expect the Panthers to tell their MVP not
to run after missing some time with a concussion, but the certainly
could decrease the number of read-options they run. The combination
of Stewart, Cam and Cappy should easily surpass the current game
average of 121.5 rushing yards allowed by the Saints.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Willie Snead (toe) should be back after
missing a few games giving Drew Brees yet another weapon to dissect
the Panthers defense. Snead was performing quite well in a complementary
role prior to his injury. However, fellow wideout Michael Thomas
has carved out a larger role in the offense during Snead’s
absence, leading all receivers in offensive snaps during the team’s
Week 4 contest before the bye. The Saints use enough three wide
receiver formations to get both Thomas and Snead plenty of snaps
so it could simply come down to which defensive back Drew Brees
and Sean Payton decide to pick on the most. Both have been given
red zone targets and deserve flex consideration for Week 6. Brandin
Cooks’ buy low window might slam shut this week if the Panthers
shaky pass defense doesn’t figure it out on the road. Cooks
saw a season-low six targets in Week 4 (he had only four such
games in 2015). If this game becomes a shootout, Cooks will be
right in the middle of it burning past defenders in route to a
great fantasy day.
Drew Brees should be one of the better quarterback plays this
week coming off a bye week. Carolina has given up nine passing
touchdowns (tied for eighth most in the NFL) and was exploited
several times by the Bucs on MNF. The last time I wrote about
Coby Fleener not getting the job done and keeping him on the fantasy
bench he blew up for over 100 yards and a score. I’m still
not confident in his ability to be a consistent contributor in
this offense (He followed up his Week 3 break out with a dud in
Week 4) but the Panthers have allowed four touchdowns to tight
ends boosting the outlook for Fleener this week.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram started to find his way in
the two weeks leading up to the Saints’ bye. In those two
games, Ingram had at least 15 carries and six targets giving him
RB1 upside. I don’t see this pattern changing against the
Panthers this weekend. Ingram’s dual threat capabilities
should push him over 100 total yards in a high scoring affair
with a good shot at reaching the end zone in front of the home
crowd. Travaris Cadet is being used as a receiver more than a
running back which keeps him relevant in deep PPR leagues but
has minimal upside as long as Ingram is being worked into the
passing attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie Dak Prescott has finished as a top
12 quarterback in each of the last three weeks, and has yet to
throw an interception. Prescott has started to take more chances
downfield with each week of experience, but is still heavily relying
on underneath routes. Slot receiver Cole Beasley has the biggest
beneficiary and has finished with double digit fantasy points
in all five games this season. Dez Bryant has returned to practice
this week, but could still be a week away from returning –
a decision will be made on Friday on his playing status for Week
6. If Bryant does not play, outside of Beasley it would be difficult
to trust any other Cowboy pass catcher as Jason Witten hasn’t
aged well and Brice Butler and Terrance Williams have not show
much consistency. This should not be a terribly difficult matchup,
however, for Prescott as the Packers are allowing 274.5 passing
yards per game and have yielded 7 passing scores in only four
games.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott has been everything pundits
and fantasy football owners expected him to be through five weeks.
He has gained 627 total yards and is finding the end zone with
regularity, with five scores on the season. The Packers have only
allowed 171 rushing yards on the season (42.8 per game) and have
given up just one rushing touchdown. They are allowing a paltry
2.0 yards per carry. On first glance this is a tough matchup for
Elliott, but a closer look shows four teams that have struggled
to run the ball (Jacksonville, Minnesota, Detroit and New York
Giants) on Green Bay’s schedule thus far. This will be by
far the biggest challenge the Packers have faced on the ground,
and let’s face it – if you have Elliott on your team
you are going to play him no matter what.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers has the worst completion percentage
in the league (56.1). Let that sink in for a minute. 2015 looked
like an anomaly season, but outside of one half of football against
the Detroit Lions, the Packers’ passing game struggles have
carried over into 2016. The one bright spot has been Jordy Nelson,
who has found the end zone in every game so far, but he’ll
face a team that held Odell Beckham Jr., Alshon Jeffrey and A.J.
Green in check during the early season. Randall Cobb returned
from the dead last week (9-108) and could follow that up with
another big week against a Cowboy team that has struggled to contain
slot wide receivers, despite shutting down their opposition’s
top outside options.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy continues to run hard and gain
yards, but his lack of usage in the passing game and his inability
to enter the endzone has frustrated fantasy owners. To make matters
worse, he sprained his ankle last week and could miss a favorable
matchup against a Dallas team allowing 4.6 yards per carry. If
Lacy can’t go, veteran James Starks should carry the load,
but the 30-year-old hasn’t looked very good while gaining
only 42 yards on his 24 carries and is also battling a knee injury.
He’s also taken a leave of absence due to a death in the
family and won’t return until Saturday. The Packers running
game is covered in a cloud of uncertainty. We should get some
clarity by Sunday morning.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles is coming off a his best game
of the season (207-2, 36-1) plus a bye week as the Jaguars head
into Soldier Field to face a solid Bears’ pass defense.
The Bears are allowing just 227.6 passing yards per game and have
only given up six passing touchdowns in five games. In recent
weeks they have allowed both Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott to finish
as top 10 QBs however, and Bortles fits the mold as a big, strong
armed and mobile quarterback like those two. The Bears have also
struggled against the deep ball, which should benefit Allen Robinson
and Allen Hurns. Surprisingly, after spending big money in free
agency last offseason on Julius Thomas, the Jaguars are not using
their big tight end much. He’s been in the bottom third
of target percentage at his position in games where he’s
been healthy. Coming off yet another injury (elbow) and with said
lack of targets he shouldn’t be anywhere near your line-up
this week.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Another
big money free agent acquisition, Chris Ivory, is also seeing
little work with the Jaguars this season. With Ivory now further
removed from a mystery illness that hospitalized him earlier in
the season, that may change soon but for now fantasy owners need
to think of T.J. Yeldon as the main ball carrier in this backfield.
Yeldon has been decent so far and the Bears have been below average
against the run through five weeks, allowing 118.4 rushing yards
per game and 5 touchdowns on the season. They have stepped it
up the last two weeks, allowing only 164 combined rushing yards
against Indianapolis and Detroit, but those teams aren’t
exactly known for their strong running games. Expect Jacksonville
to come out looking to establish the run, making this a solid
start for Yeldon, who is also used in the passing game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer is only the second Bears’
quarterback ever to throw for over 300 yards in three straight
games. Oddly enough it was another journeyman, Josh McCown, that
accomplished the task the first time, but we digress. That streak
could come to an end this week as he’ll face a Jaguars defense
allowing only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and only 198.8 yards
passing per game. The Jags are averaging 4 sacks per game and
could cause trouble for Hoyer behind a makeshift Bears’
offensive line. Cameron Meredith came out of nowhere last week,
playing on nearly every offensive snap to finish with 9 catches
for 130 yards and a touchdown while starting in place of Kevin
White who was sent to IR. It stands to reason that the second
year player should be a big part of this week’s game plan
also with teams keying on Alshon Jeffery.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard has made the most of the
opportunity created when Jeremy Langford suffered a knee injury,
averaging 5.8 yards per carry and showing he can handle a large
workload (45 touches in two weeks). He’ll face a better
defense this week than he has the last two, but Jacksonville isn’t
especially tough against the run (105.8 rushing yards per game)
and Howard should see another heavy volume day in a game that
should remain close throughout. The waiver wire darling should
make it three games in a row as a fantasy RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions are one of the best matchups for
quarterbacks in fantasy football, so let all the Case Keenum owners
rejoice! I can’t hear you. Of course outside of two quarterback
leagues, Keenum isn’t likely anywhere near your roster but
with Detroit allowing a league worst 14 passing touchdowns on
the season perhaps he may find his way into the line-ups of those
that like to stream QBs. Keenum’s main target has been Tavon
Austin who is starting to emerge as a legit WR2 in most leagues.
Beyond Austin, none of the Rams’ pass catchers have been
consistent enough to garner much line-up consideration and with
only two NFL teams on a bye this week, there’s no need for
that to change.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley has been a disappointment
after his outstanding rookie season. He hasn’t been able
to break out with big plays like he was able to do last season.
Gurley is a victim of the Rams poor offensive line and passing
game, but to be honest he was able to overcome similar circumstances
last season. He does see a large volume of carries and the team
has stated they want to get him more involved in the passing game.
The Lions have not allowed a rushing touchdown through five weeks,
but that may just be an anomaly as they have otherwise struggled
against the run allowing 114.8 yards per game on the ground at
4.9 yards per carry. The Rams’ defense should keep the team
in the game, allowing Gurley to remain a significant enough part
of the game plan to potentially allow for the big day his owners
have been waiting for.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has been very up and down
this season, but has thrown 3 touchdown passes in three out of
five games. On the downside, he has thrown for only 1 touchdown
combined in the team’s other two games. The Lions biggest
weapon in the passing game has been Marvin Jones who accounts
for nearly 38% of the team’s receiving yards, the highest
percentage in the league. With the Rams top corner, Trumaine Johnson,
out this week Jones should bounce back from two down weeks. Golden
Tate on the other hand has seen his role diminish since last season,
and set his season high yardage in Week 1 with a paltry 41 yards.
He’s likely finding his way to waiver wires in all but deep
leagues. Tight end Eric Ebron (ankle) will likely miss another
game, leaving Cole Wick as the starter once again. Wick failed
to catch a pass last week starting in place of Ebron. Ebron owners
should look elsewhere.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Theo Riddick has been thrust into the
feature back role by default with Ameer Abdullah on IR and rookie
DeWayne Washington (ankle) on the shelf last week. Riddick has
been valuable in PPR leagues due to his pass catching skills,
but has struggled running the ball. He has failed to gain positive
yards on 32 percent of his carries and has not surpassed 50 rushing
yards in any game this season. Washington could be back this week
and the team also added Justin Forsett so Riddick’s days
as a bellcow could be coming to an end. However, it’s hard
to imagine Forsett seeing much action this week, and with Washington
perhaps not completely healthy Riddick may get one last reprieve.
Keep an eye on Riddick’s playing status as he’s missed
practice time with an ankle injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz has spearheaded this rookie
QB renaissance of 2016, but his first career interception was
a costly one. That shouldn’t damper what was otherwise a
strong performance last week. Wentz completed 75 percent of his
throws for 238 yards and two touchdowns. For some reason, Nelson
Agholor led the team in targets with seven. Unsurprisingly, he
was only able to haul in two of them. Jordan Matthews only saw
four targets, catching all of them for 65 yards because he is
unquestionably the best receiver on this team and needs to be
getting more opportunities. The Redskins are coming off a week
where they gave up nothing through the air, but given the 30 mph
winds in that game and the fact that Baltimore’s performance
resulted in them firing their offensive coordinator, it’s
hard to put too much stock into the Redskins’ pass defense.
Zach Ertz also returned from injury last week, but wasn’t
heavily involved (3 targets). Given the state of tight ends this
season, he remains a fine option. The Redskins rank in the middle
of the pack in yards allowed and Josh Norman doesn’t venture
to the slot, where JMatt lives, so there’s not much to fear
here with your Eagles.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Despite the final box score, the most valuable
and most reliable Eagles running back continues to be Darren Sproles.
Talks of a Wendell Smallwood takeover should be halted. He barely
saw the field. Sproles led the backfield in snaps at 56 percent
with Ryan Mathews second at 41 percent. Mathews scored, but Sproles
averaged nine yards on his five carries (compared to 3.8 for Mathews).
Both were involved in the passing game, catching four and five
passes respectively. The Redskins appeared vulnerable to the dink
and dunk offense against Baltimore – something the Eagles
can execute far better. Assuming Mathews doesn’t take too
much heat for his late fourth quarter fumble that essentially
cost the Eagles the game, he and Sproles should both be safe to
deploy this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins had a below average day under
center last week. It was like watching the bizarro Cousins. He
didn’t have a great fantasy day, but he played well enough
for his team to win. Matt Stafford threw two touchdowns against
the Eagles last week and those were the first two passing touchdowns
the Eagles allowed all season. The only consistent force in the
Redskins passing attack is Jordan Reed, who continues to be a
targets monster with eleven last week. Reed’s floor is quite
high and his bottom line looks that much better when he gets in.
Unfortunately, Reed showed up to practice Tuesday with concussion
symptoms and is currently in the concussion protocol. Concussions
are always scary with Reed given his extensive history of them
and sad reality is that every concussion he suffers could potentially
end his career. He is not going to play Sunday. DeSean Jackson
has been busting far more than booming this season and belongs
on benches until further notice. Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon
are desperation bye week fillers as it’s possible one of
them picks up the targets vacated by Reed.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Jones tried to fool you all two weeks
ago. But you’re too smart for that and didn’t fall
for it. Credit to my colleague Sal Marcoccio, who writes about
far fewer Redskins games than me, for being on top of things and
recommending you bench Jones last week despite his strong performance
Week 4. Jones returned to being Matt Jones last week with just
31 yards on 14 carries (2-25 receiving as well). This week, he
faces an Eagles defense allowing just 73.2 rushing yards per game,
which is third lowest in the league. Jones is still dominating
carries so if you have injury and bye week troubles compounded
upon each other, he’s good for a couple points. Chris Thompson
simply isn’t getting enough work (two carries, four targets)
to be relevant. He doesn’t even need to be owned in 10 or
12-team leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers continue to prove that their
flop against the Eagles was nothing more than a fluke. This is
without question one of the best offenses in the league. Ben Roethlisberger
hogged all the touchdowns last week with four and now is up to
fifteen on the season. Antonio Brown had a quiet game by his standards
(9-78-1). Jesse James also found the end zone. But the star of
this game was Sammie Coates. He simultaneously had one of the
best and one of the worst receiving games of 2016. Coates caught
six of eleven targets for a whopping 139 yards and two touchdowns.
He dropped the other five, two of which would’ve gone for
some of the easiest scores you’ll ever see. Nevertheless,
he’s firmly entrenched as the “other guy” in
the Steelers passing game and needs to be owned and started in
all leagues if he suits up (laceration on his hand). The Dolphins
are an absolute mess and their middle of the road ranking in pass
defense is not indicative of how poorly they’ve played.
Big Ben’s home/road splits are not overly concerning as
the Dolphins should give him little trouble this week.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: It’s not just the numbers Le’Veon
Bell puts up, it’s how effortlessly he does it. Watching
this game in its entirety, it never really looked like Bell was
doing anything. But the stats just rack up and when it was all
said and done, he had 66 rushing yards, 88 receiving yards, and
over 20 fantasy points in PPr leagues. He’s just a machine.
He runs with such patience, it’s like he’s floating
on his feet. He also has an astounding fourteen receptions in
just two games. He hasn’t missed a beat. The Dolphins just
gave a 100-yard rushing day to DeMarco Murray and while Murray
is really good, he’s not Le’Veon Bell. The Dolphins
are last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 150.8.
If Big Ben can find it in his heart to share a touchdown or two
with his running game, we’re looking at 30-plus PPR points
from Bell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I think at this point it would be a mild
upset if Ryan Tannehill is the Dolphins starting QB in 2017. Despite
what Adam Gase says, there’s a greater than zero chance
he doesn’t make it through the season with his job. Last
week marked his fourth consecutive game with multiple turnovers
and is now up to nine on the season. He’s thrown just six
touchdowns (and rushed for another). His disastrous performance
last week dragged Jarvis Landry down with him. Landry had his
worst game of the season, snapping his streak of seven receptions
or more in every game in 2016. I would love to hear Tannehill
justify Landry seeing just three targets in a full game. The Steelers
are one of five teams allowing an average of 300 yards passing
to opposing QBs. I’m not saying Tannehill will help that
average, but the Steelers are vulnerable through the air so Landry
is setup to bounce back nicely. No one else in this passing attack
matters.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: There was no timeshare last week. Jay
Ajayi led the backfield with thirteen carries while Kenyan Drake
and Damien Williams combined for just three. However, Ajayi amassed
just 42 yards. He did find the end zone so if you started him
in a bind, you weren’t too disappointed (although it’s
kind of impossible to be disappointed by Jay Ajayi). While the
Steelers are bottom five in passing yards allowed per game, they’re
top five in rushing yards allowed per game. Bottom of the barrel
rushing attack + top of the barrel rush defense = continue to
not start any Dolphins running backs. Arian Foster has been limited
in practice this week and expected to return, but isn’t
anything more than a dart throw given the state of the Dolphins
run game.
Value Meter:
WR2: Jarvis Landry (high end – I’m buying a bounce
back performance)
Bench: all other Dolphins
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cowboys completely shut down the Bengals
last week, the two garbage time fourth quarter scores notwithstanding.
A.J. Green is viewed as an elite WR1, but he does have a bit of
a boom or bust history. That has been on full display in 2016.
In Weeks 1 and 4, Green totaled 22 catches for 353 yards and two
touchdowns. In his other three games combined, Green totaled 14
catches for 165 yards and no touchdowns. The Patriots fall right
in the middle in pass defense rankings, but Belichick is famous
for erasing the opponent’s top weapon. Green is a threat
to break out any week given his immense talent, but it could be
another lackluster day from the consensus first round pick. Brandon
LaFell’s eleven-target, two-score day is probably a fluke,
unless it happens again. Tyler Eifert is likely going to miss
yet another game and it’s a legitimate question whether
he plays at all this season. Andy Dalton will likely need garbage
time if he wants to reach QB1 numbers this week.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill (chest,shoulder) practiced
in full Thursday and is expected to play although the matchup
and expected game script isn’t appetizing for the Bengals
big back. The Patriots allow just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing
rushers. The Bengals should opt for a short passing game in lieu
of a running game and utilize Giovani Bernard more often. Gio
will be the “feature” back this week in the sense
that he will see more snaps and more touches. The Bengals actually
started Bernard last week, evidently coming to grips with the
fact that Hill is not an NFL caliber starting running back. This
matchup isn’t great for Bernard, but he could be a volume
RB2 or at the very least a PPR flex play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You can hear the chants reverberating through
the church of Belichick: “Our Tom is an angry Tom.”
The Browns were helpless to stop Angry Tom Brady last week as
he ripped them apart for 406 yards and three touchdowns. Rust?
Nope. And just as everyone expected, Brady found the guy he had
never played a regular season down with before, Martellus Bennett,
for three touchdowns. Oh no? You didn’t see that coming.
Yeah, me neither. I wouldn’t look too much into that. Rob
Gronkowski looked to be in full Gronk mode. It just so happened
the Browns forgot to cover Marty B a couple times. Brady spread
the ball around nicely, but the biggest positive for me, other
than Gronk’s health, was Julian Edelman’s involvement.
He only had five catches for 35 yards, but he led the team with
ten targets. He is a great buy low option and is going to be his
usual high end WR2 self with Brady more often than not. Chris
Hogan had a nice game despite being in and out multiple times
with injuries. He’s not a reliable weekly option, but is
a reminder that Brady + anything = potentially gold. The Bengals
couldn’t stop Dak Prescott last week. Good luck with Angry
Tom Brady.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: If we strictly count designed running
plays to actual running backs, the Patriots ran the ball 29 times
last week. LeGarrette Blount grindws away tough yards to the tune
of 2.1 yards per carry. And, of course, he fell into the end zone.
The prolific Patriots offense will always keep Blount a touchdown
away from RB2 value. James White and D.J. Foster mixed in as well,
but only White is relevant for now and only as a PPR flex option.
The Bengals were roasted by Ezekiel Elliott last week and allow
4.4 yards per carry on the season to opposing rushers, but the
Patriots probably don’t care. They will throw more than
they run and if you start Blount, you’re hoping for a touchdown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Here’s the short version: you should
not own any member of the 49ers passing game. Here’s the
longer version: Jeremy Kerley had a nice game last week, but do
not expect that to continue, especially now that Colin Kaepernick
has taken over at QB. Kaepernick is not an upgrade on Blaine Gabbert.
The most important change is that whatever Gabbert had with Kerley
is now gone. Christian Ponder is going to make starts for the
49ers this season. The Bills have given up the fifth fewest fantasy
to quarterbacks and only two passing touchdowns on the season.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde is one of the best running
backs in the league and would be an elite RB1 on a better offense.
The fact that he’s even an RB1 now is a testament to his
immense talent. The Bills are tied for the fifth fewest yards
per carry allowed with 3.5. They’ve also only allowed three
rushing touchdowns all season. This is a very good defense. Hyde
will not have it easy, but with the lack of talent around him,
it’s never easy. Hyde is averaging four yards per carry,
which is impressive all things considered. He’s touched
the ball at least 16 times in every game and scored in every game
except Week 2. He is the only 49er you actually want.
Value Meter:
RB1: Carlos Hyde (low end)
Bench: all other 49ers
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to truly judge Tyrod Taylor’s
performance when he has Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin as his
top two receivers. Taylor is still mostly a game manager with
his best skill being protecting the football. His job is to not
lose. He’s averaging a measly 179.4 passing yards per game
and has thrown just six touchdowns on the season, with three of
them coming in one game against the Jets. The 49ers have allowed
ten passing touchdowns this season and are a great spot for Taylor
to have a big game, but it’s going to be the LeSean McCoy
show this week with the defense bearing most of the weight. Despite
being the number one option, Robert Woods does not belong in fantasy
lineups. Charles Clay makes for a nice TE streaming option if
you have bye issues or need to replace Jordan Reed.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy is really good at football.
His workload is remarkably consistent with somewhere between 19
and 26 touches in every game. He has accumulated 90 yards of offense
or a touchdown in every game and is the unquestioned focal point
of the offense. The 49ers just got shredded by David Johnson and
the week before, they were shredded by Ezekiel Elliott. The week
before that, they were shredded by Christine Michael. In Week
2, they were shredded by Fozzy Whitaker. The 49ers have allowed
a 100 yard rusher each of the last four weeks. Shady is a virtual
lock to make it five straight and should contend for top RB honors
in Week 6.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco is averaging 43 pass attempts
per game. One would think that type of volume would force him
to push QB1 numbers. Instead, Flacco has eclipsed 300 yards passing
just once this season and accounted for multiple touchdowns just
twice. The Ravens, as a team, just aren’t scoring many points.
Steve Smith looks doubtful to play this week after injuring his
ankle last week. Mike Wallace would serve as the team’s
No.1 receiver, but he’s still nothing more than a boom or
bust flex option. Dennis Pitta is the safest member of this pass
catching group, but he’s all floor and no ceiling. The potential
lies in Breshad Perriman. The de facto rookie (he missed all of
2015) is far and away the team’s most talented receiver,
but he’s also the most green. If he could translate his
athleticism into tangible results, he could be a factor down the
stretch. With that being said, he’s not yet a fantasy option.
Avoid Ravens wide receivers this week.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Terrance West looked pretty good in the
first half of action last week. How’d he look in the second
half? We’ll never know as Marc Trestman decided to stop
giving him the ball. The last time the Ravens fired their offensive
coordinator mid-season, they won the super bowl. I’m not
predicting a repeat of that level of success, but I do expect
the coordinator change to ignite the offense a bit. West will
remain the lead back as it appears the Ravens intend to bring
rookie Kenneth Dixon on very slowly. I do believe Dixon is the
future lead back, but that time is probably farther in the future
than I’d like it to be. West is fine for now and a solid
option even against a Giants run defense allowing just 3.5 yards
per carry.
Passing
Game Thoughts: On the list of things that give me tremendous
joy, Eli Manning turning the ball over is quite close to the top.
I can’t say I’m too upset that Manning has more turnovers
(six) than touchdowns (five) or that his team keeps losing. While
I doubt many are relying on Manning himself, his inability to
function well as a quarterback has been a huge problem for Odell
Beckham Jr.. It took five weeks and a superb toe tap in the back
of the end zone for Beckham to finally score this season. He’s
surpassed 100 yards receiving once and has yet to reach double
digit receptions in a single game. Beckham now has three games
with a catch percentage well under 50 percent. He was the second
or third receiver off the board in 99 percent of drafts but is
performing like a low end WR2. I really want to say better days
are ahead for him, but he can’t throw the ball to himself.
I’ve watched a lot of the Giants this year and many of this
passes are completely uncatchable. Manning is the guilty party
here. The Ravens allow just 190.8 passing yards per game, but
have allowed nine passing touchdowns. There’s opportunity
here but it’s up to Manning to get the ball to his weapons
at receiver.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers have been the top run defense
in the league through the first quarter of the season so it’s
no surprise that the Giants struggled on the ground last week.
The Ravens allow 3.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs,
but it really doesn’t matter who the defense is, the Giants
cannot run the ball. For as bad as people think their offensive
line has been, it’s graded out as the third best offensive
line thus far. The real problem is no matter how hard Ben McAdoo
tries, none of these replacement level backs are Shane Vereen.
Even if Rashad Jennings (thumb) returns this week, there’s
nothing to even get remotely excited about.
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