Passing
Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay and Atlanta rank seventh and eighth
respectively in defensive yards allowed per game so there should
be plenty of scoring opportunities for fantasy owners to exploit
in this contest. Matt Ryan has not scored fewer than 17 fantasy
points (standard scoring) in a single game this year. He heads
into Thursday’s divisional match up coming off his second
game of the year with at least 28 completions as a result of the
pass-heavy play-calling by the Falcons’ coaching staff.
Julio Jones is the best fantasy receiver through seven weeks and
scored a touchdown when he faced Tampa earlier this year. Matt
Ryan has started to rely more on Mohamed Sanu with defenses focusing
on Jones. Over the past three weeks Sanu has accrued 24 targets
and the Falcons will be without Jacob Tamme. There is always a
chance that Sanu disappoints but I like his chances as a flex
option given the match up. Justin Hardy has received the next
most snaps amongst wide receivers in this offense but he can’t
be recommended for fantasy purposes. Austin Hooper and Levin Toilolo
will split the fantasy value at tight end while filling in for
Tamme.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman remains a must start fantasy
option with Tevin Coleman (hamstring) being declared out this
week. He didn’t fare too well against the Packers last week
and was on the injury report with a hip injury but still managed
to put together a useful fantasy line with his added work in the
passing game. Freeman’s dual threat capabilities should
translate into a big night going up against a defense that has
yielded the fifth most fantasy points to fantasy running backs
this season. If he needs to take a series off, Terron Ward will
be given a few carries but not enough to put him on the fantasy
map this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay is dealing with some injuries
in the backfield so don’t be surprised if the Bucs turn
to the air to compensate. That should help Jameis Winston see
his pass attempts rise over the 35 mark for the first time since
Week 3. Getting those added opportunities against the Falcons
secondary (19 passing touchdowns allowed) pushes Winston into
QB1 territory this week. Russell Shepard has caught touchdown
passes in each of the past two games. He hasn’t been a high
volume receiver but Vincent Jackson saw seven balls thrown to
him versus the Bucs in Week 1. The fact that Winston has targeted
him in the red zone recently gives him the edge against Adam Humphries
for anyone in deeper leagues needing a wide receiver for Week
9. The last time Cecil Shorts put together a decent fantasy outing
it was against the Falcons in Week 4 last year (six receptions
for 87 yards and a score). That doesn’t replace the fact
that he has only one reception since joining Tampa Bay this year.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: This would
have been a great match up for Jacquizz Rodgers owners but a foot
injury suffered last week against the Raiders will sideline him
for Thursday night’s game. That leaves Antone Smith and
Peyton Barber as the two most viable fantasy options with Mike
James - resigned this week - to provide the team with depth. Smith
has had three weeks to reacquaint himself with the offense and
should be motivated to perform against his former team. I’d
tab him as the best bet to lead this RBBC but Barber should get
mixed in as well. It’s tough to ignore a defense that has
been friendly to opposing running backs in a week with so many
teams on bye so Smith plays up to a low end RB2 this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars have been one of the most disappointing
passing games so far this season, but after a disastrous first
half in Week 8, Blake Bortles and his receivers finally got things
going in the second half. Bortles finished the game with 337 yards
and three touchdowns with no interceptions in what was by far
his best performance of the season. In Week 9, he’ll have
the difficult task of passing against a Kansas City defense that
held Andrew Luck to just 210 yards through the air this past week.
Both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have some appeal in this game,
but given the target totals, Robinson is still the better option
despite the likelihood that he’ll see more attention from
cornerback Marcus Peters. Tight end Julius Thomas has also scored
in back-to-back weeks and makes for an interesting TE option with
high-end upside given the unusually high number of top tight ends
on byes this week. Kansas City has only conceded one tight end
to an opposing tight end so far this season, but Thomas is still
one of the Jaguars’ main go-to weapons in the red zone.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars continue to fall behind early
in many games which has led them to be one of the league’s
least effective running games. Both T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory
have fallen out of favor with fantasy owners – and for good
reason. Only Yeldon, who rushed for 71 yards in Week 4, has surpassed
50 yards rushing in a game and they’ve each only scored
one touchdown this season. Kansas City has held two of their past
three opponents to fewer than 60 total rushing yards and they
seem like a good bet to do that again. Yeldon does have some low-end
appeal in PPR formats due to his usage in the passing game, but
the three or four points that fantasy owners would get from catches
doesn’t seem to justify his usage in fantasy. If you’re
looking for a silver lining, it’s worth considering that
the Chiefs’ offense is missing major contributors including
quarterback Alex Smith, so it’s very possible that this
could remain a close contest. That would seem to play more to
Ivory’s strengths, but it’s difficult to predict what
they’d do should they keep the game close or even get out
to a lead.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the biggest stories in fantasy football
for Week 9 is the status of Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith,
who will miss Sunday’s game against the Jaguars. Smith has
long been one of the league’s biggest examples of a “game
manager,” which is nicer way of saying, “guy who doesn’t
put up great numbers” for fantasy owners. His backup, Nick
Foles, has some of those same skills, but he’s been a bit
more willing to sling the ball than Smith typically has. The drop
off from Smith to Foles might not be all that dramatic as he has
a great connection with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin who had a
career year for the Eagles in 2014 with Foles at the helm. Unfortunately,
Maclin will likely be matched up against one of the league’s
budding shutdown cornerbacks, Jalen Ramsey, who has been excellent
thus far in his season. Maclin is also dealing with a groin injury
which has held him out of practice early in the week and may hamper
his ability to create separation. Foles also may have been developing
chemistry with WR Tyreek Hill, as both have been practicing with
the second string unit for most of the season. Tight end Travis
Kelce doesn’t have much chemistry with Foles, but his pure
talent and the lack of viable options at the position this week
makes him an easy TE1 start even against a Jaguars defense that
has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
TE’s so far this season.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: While the Chiefs will be without their
starting quarterback, they’ll also be without running back
Jamaal Charles who was placed on IR earlier this week. Spencer
Ware has been an RB1 in replacement of Charles, but he too is
dealing with an injury – in this case a concussion, which
could very well keep him out this week. If their top two backs
are out, Charcandrick West seems likely to get a large workload
against a Jacksonville defense that has given up six rushing touchdowns
and an average of 106 rushing yards over their past four contests.
West’s skill set makes him a better play in PPR formats,
but his potential usage makes a solid RB2 in either format with
RB1 upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners who selected Cam Newton as
the first quarterback off the board in drafts have been extremely
disappointed with what they’ve gotten from the 2015 NFL
MVP. Eight passing touchdowns in six starts just isn’t enough,
even for a QB who can run the ball like Newton. Unfortunately,
things don’t get a whole lot easier as he and the Panthers
head to Los Angeles to face the Rams. The Rams have held opposing
quarterbacks to one or zero touchdown passes in four of their
seven contests and they’ve only allowed two passers to eclipse
270 yards through the air. Still, Newton’s upside makes
him extremely difficult to bench. Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin
has been solid as of late, having accumulated at least 70 receiving
yards in each of his past three games, but after a monstrous start
to the season, he’s scored just one touchdown over his past
five games. Benjamin is a high-end WR2 in this matchup with WR1
upside if he can get into the end zone. Tight end Greg Olsen continues
to be one of the best tight ends in all of football, especially
fantasy football where he currently ranks as the No. 1 player
at his position. He was held to just one catch for 11 yards against
the Cardinals in Week 8, but Olsen has caught at least five passes
in every other contest so far in 2016.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Panthers
running back Jonathan Stewart was given what is being described
as a “veteran’s day off” from practice this
Thursday, leading to some speculation that the runner had sustained
some sort of setback in his recovery from the hamstring injury
that hampered him earlier this season. The Panthers coaches insist
that it was just an effort to keep him healthy going forward,
however, and that will be important as Stewart has been very good
when he’s been healthy. Stewart has scored a pair of touchdowns
in each of his past two games, including 205 total yards since
returning from his injury. The Rams have been good against the
run in each of their past two games, but they were going up against
two of the league’s least-effective running games (Lions
and Giants), so look for the Panthers to give plenty of work to
Stewart in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite grumblings from fans and NFL pundits
alike, Los Angeles head coach Jeff Fisher appears to be set in
his belief that Case Keenum – not 2016 No. 1 overall draft
pick Jared Goff – should be starting for the Rams. While
Keenum will start for the Rams on Sunday, it does remain possible
that Goff could step in and take over late in a game if the Rams
fall far enough behind on the scoreboard. That’s just one
of many reasons to not trust Keenum, even in what is considered
to be one of the best fantasy matchups for quarterbacks, against
the Panthers. The Panthers have given up the third-most fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks, but Keenum has been so up and
down that it’s hard to justify starting him in anything
other than deep two-QB formats. It continues to be difficult to
predict who the Rams will key in on in the passing game, as well.
This past week it was Tavon Austin who led the team with 10 receptions,
but the depth of target was so low that Austin only accumulated
57 total yards with all of those catches. Brian Quick and even
Kenny Britt continue to make catches at wide receiver as well,
but with Los Angeles being one of the lowest-scoring offenses
in the league, the upside for any of these receivers isn’t
great and their floor is also very low. One player who could be
considered for fantasy purposes this week is tight end Lance Kendricks.
Kendricks has the same issues that the other Los Angeles pass
catchers do, but given the number of top tight ends on byes this
week, many owners will be scouring the waiver wire for a one-week
replacement at the position. Kendricks has caught 12 passes over
his past two games and could be in for another nice day.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley continues to disappoint given
his first round ADP in fantasy drafts, but the one nice thing
is that his floor has been pretty high despite being on one of
the league’s worst overall offenses. Gurley has scored at
least seven fantasy points (standard scoring) in five straight
contests and while he hasn’t even hit 90 yards rushing in
a single game so far this season, he is suddenly seeing a lot
more attention in the passing game. Gurley has made 18 receptions
over his past four contests and should touch the ball 15 or more
times in every game as long as he is healthy, thus making him
an RB1 especially given the number of teams on byes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ol’ reliable, Drew Brees continues
to produce huge fantasy numbers and is once again a top three
fantasy quarterback here in 2016. Brees’ numbers continue
to be substantially better at home than on the road as he and
the Saints will be in Week 9, but even a “down” game
for Brees is more like a great game for most fantasy quarterbacks.
Brees continues to spread the ball around the field, but the primary
beneficiaries have been wide receivers Brandin Cooks and rookie
Michael Thomas. Cooks has now caught a touchdown in each of his
past three games while Thomas has caught at least four passes
in every game so far this season. Willie Snead struggles for a
couple of weeks, but has been getting back into his groove as
of late, including hauling in 15 passes over his past two games.
All three receivers are worth a look in fantasy this week as they’ll
be up against a San Francisco defense that has given up multiple
scores to wide receivers in all but two games so far in 2016.
Tight end Coby Fleener is also a TE1 in this contest given the
Saints’ pass-happy offense, but it’s worth noting
that the 49ers have only allowed 12 total fantasy points (standard
scoring) against tight ends in their past four contests combined.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram gave his owners what might
be the worst fantasy day that any player provides all year as
he lost a fumble after just three carries and was subsequently
benched for the rest of the game against the Seahawks this past
week. It was veteran back Tim Hightower – not Travaris Cadet
– who took over for Ingram and produced 102 yards on 26
carries. While it is believed that the benching of Ingram was
just a warning shot from the Saints coaching staff, it’s
worth noting that Hightower looked fairly good and the Saints
obviously have no problem trusting him if Ingram isn’t getting
the job done. It’s unfortunate that this situation is happening
right now as the Saints will be up against one of the league’s
worst run defenses in Week 9, the 49ers, who at 1,137 yards, have
already given up more 100-yard rushing games than any other team
in the league this season. Ingram could be worth the risk, but
Hightower will almost certainly see some time, which could mean
that neither player ends the game with a truly huge performance
even if the totals between the two are great.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There’s not a lot to love about the
49ers right now, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be so quick
to disregard what quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been doing
and is capable of doing on a weekly basis. Kaepernick’s
187 and 143 passing yards with one touchdown in each contest are
nothing special at all, but his 150 rushing yards are elite. In
fact, he’s already seventh among quarterbacks in rushing
yards despite playing in only two games. Kaepernick’s ability
to run gives him a unique fantasy situation. His receivers have
practically no value, but Kaepernick himself is capable of being
a QB1 against almost any matchup and unless the opposing defense
completely focuses on shutting down his running attack, it’s
almost a guarantee that he’s going to produce at least a
handful of points in that department. Don’t think of him
as a lock as an every week starter, but Kaepernick is certainly
a capable bye week fill-in.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: 49ers running back Carlos Hyde is the
top fantasy player on the roster, but a shoulder injury held him
out in Week 7 prior to the team’s bye and has left major
questions as to his availability for this weekend’s contest.
Hyde is still not practicing in full as of Thursday and it seems
unlikely that he’d get a full workload even if he is active
in this game. It seems likely that the 49ers are headed for a
dreaded “by committee” approach at the position in
this game, which essentially makes all of the players limited.
If Hyde does play, expect him to see the most work, but Mike Davis,
Shaun Draughn and even DuJuan Harris could all see touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There’s been a lot of hype around
other young quarterbacks this season, but few have been performing
better as of late than Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota. Mariota
has thrown multiple touchdowns in each of his past four games
and he’s averaging 237 yards passing per game over that
stretch. Mariota’s receivers have been difficult to predict,
but he seems to be trusting Kendall Wright the most lately despite
Wright playing far fewer snaps than either Tajae Sharpe or Rishard
Matthews. Look for Wright to continue to work his way back into
the lineup as he gets healthier. Mariota’s top target, however,
is actually tight end Delanie Walker, who has had his ups and
downs this season, but is still tied for the lead on the team
with 28 receptions. San Diego ranks about middle-of-the-pack against
opposing passing games so far this season, but they’ve been
excellent as of late, having allowed just two passing touchdowns
over their past three games, including just one score to the league’s
top-scoring fantasy quarterback Matt Ryan. This isn’t an
excellent matchup, but Mariota is playing well enough that he
deserves to be listed as a QB1 especially with all of the teams
on byes here in Week 9.
SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: It’s hard to find anything negative
to say about DeMarco Murray and the Tennessee running game so
far in 2016. The back currently sits behind only David Johnson
in total fantasy points (standard scoring) at his position and
he is tied for the Titans lead with 28 receptions. Murray would
be an obvious RB1 in most contests, but an injured toe knocked
him out of the team’s Week 8 victory over the Jaguars and
has limited him in practice throughout the week. While it’s
believed that Murray will be good to go, it’s also very
possible – if not probable – that rookie Derrick Henry
will play additional snaps in this Week 9 matchup against the
Chargers. San Diego has not been good at stopping opposing running
backs from scoring fantasy points against them so far this season.
While they’ve only allowed one team to eclipse 100 yards
on the ground against them, the Chargers have given up a whopping
12 touchdowns to the position on the year – second-most
in the league. If Murray does play, lock him in as an RB1 with
Henry still having some Flex appeal. If Murray sits, Henry himself
moves up to an RB1 and he could have the first truly big game
of his young career.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers started the 2016 season on
fire, but has struggled a bit in recent weeks, largely due to
having two matchups against the league’s best pass defense,
the Denver Broncos. Rivers tossed three interceptions in the Chargers’
loss to the Broncos in Week 8, but he has still scored double-digit
fantasy points (standard scoring) in every game this season, thus
allowing him to hold onto his status as a low-end QB1 for the
year. His receivers have once again been decimated this season
and now three of his top targets – Travis Benjamin, Tyrell
Williams and Hunter Henry – are all banged up and listed
as questionable for this contest against the Titans. While all
three are expected to play, it’s becoming increasingly difficult
to predict which player, if any, is going to perform for the Chargers’
passing game on a weekly basis. This is a great matchup against
a Tennessee secondary that has given up multiple passing touchdowns
and at least 336 passing yards in each of their past three contests,
but only Rivers himself is a reliable and obvious starter in this
game.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: San Diego has been a pass-first offense
since the days of LaDainian Tomlinson, but they might have finally
found their new franchise back in Melvin Gordon. Even if it doesn’t
turn out that way, fantasy owners will certainly remember the
tremendous first half of the season that he has provided to them
so far in 2016. Gordon rushed for a season-high 111 yards in Week
8 against a tough Denver defense and while he failed to score
a touchdown for the first time this season, he still leads all
running backs with 10 total touchdowns on the year. Gordon’s
usage, particularly at the goal line, makes him an elite back
in almost any contest, but it’s worth pointing out that
the Titans have been excellent against the run, having conceded
the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running
backs. Still, Gordon is too hot to even consider benching at this
point and given all the injuries to the San Diego pass catchers,
it seems likely that the Chargers will give him a heavy workload
again in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Trevor Siemian has not been good for fantasy
purposes and now it’s beginning to affect his receivers,
more specifically Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. While
both continue to catch four or more passes each week, their upside
has been extremely limited as they’ve caught just one touchdown
between the two of them over their past three games. On a positive
note, the Raiders have given up the fourth-most yards per game
to opposing wide receivers so far this season. With Denver’s
targets condensed so much into their top two wide receivers, it’s
hard to not be at least a bit excited for what could be their
best fantasy matchup for quite some time.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back Devontae Booker made
the first start of his NFL career this past week, rushing for
54 yards and a touchdown while adding 30 yards on five receptions
in the passing game. It wasn’t a huge performance, but it
was enough to prove that he’s good enough to keep the job
for now and that’s what we really need out of Booker going
forward. Denver is not built to keep up with the high-powered
Oakland passing game, so their best bet might be to slow things
down with their running game here in Week 9. A heavy dose of Booker
could mean 20-plus touches against the Raiders’ 22nd-ranked
fantasy defense against opposing running backs. That should be
enough to make Booker a solid RB1 option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: On the short list for NFL MVP for the first
half of the season, Oakland quarterback Derek Carr continues to
improve and his top two receivers, Michael Crabtree and Amari
Cooper, continue to put up huge numbers. Their Week 9 matchup
against the Broncos, though, is as tough as it gets. Denver has
been incredible against opposing passing games, having allowed
just one team to throw for multiple touchdown passes against them
so far this season. Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points
per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year and while the Oakland
passing game has been as hot as any in the league, this is far
from a great matchup. Carr threw for just 384 yards against the
Broncos in the two games he played against them in 2015, so understand
that while Carr, Crabtree and Cooper will probably have to be
in most lineups, their upside is limited in this game.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: A “three-headed monster” backfield
is rarely great for fantasy production and the situation that’s
playing out in Oakland has certainly been far from great. Veteran
Latavius Murray continues to get about half of the touches out
of the backfield while youngsters DeAndre Washington and Jalen
Richard split the remaining touches between the two of them. What
has ended up happening – and what will likely continue to
happen – is decent overall production but a lack of fantasy
production for any one player. Murray did get two touchdowns in
the team’s Week 7 victory over the Jaguars, but that’s
too small of a sample size for us to really draw much of a conclusion.
The Broncos are actually able to be run on, so Murray is worth
the risk as an RB2, but Richard and Washington should remain on
benches for now.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Buffalo’s lack of high-end talent
at the wide receiver position has been a problem since Sammy Watkins
went down. Fantasy owners have pretty much given up on all of
the Bills pass-catchers , but now it’s starting to affect
Tyrod Taylor’s ability to produce fantasy numbers through
the air. Taylor has averaged just under 177 passing yards per
game over his past four contests and he’s only thrown five
touchdown passes over that span. Thankfully, Taylor’s fantasy
production has been saved due to the fact that he has avoided
turning the ball over and that he’s among the best –
if not the best runner in the league at the quarterback position.
Taylor’s 319 rushing yards leads all quarterbacks and he
has added three rushing scores. This has allowed him to score
at least 14 fantasy points (standard scoring) in every game since
Week 1. Still, due to the team’s lack of weapons out wide,
his upside is limited, especially in Seattle against one of the
league’s best defenses. The Bills did sign the previously
retired Percy Harvin, but he should remain on fantasy waiver wires
until we at least see him on the field.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills continue to be cryptic in regards
to whether or not their star running back, LeSean McCoy, will
be back on the field in Week 9. McCoy had been one of the league’s
top fantasy producers at the position prior to suffering a hamstring
injury in Week 7. If McCoy is unable to play, the Bills will likely
again turn to Mike Gillislee to shoulder the majority of the workload
as he did in Week 8 when McCoy was sidelined. Gillislee performed
well against the Patriots, rushing for 85 yards on 12 carries
while adding three catches for nine yards. He’ll be up against
an even tougher run defense here in Week 9 as he and the Bills
head to Seattle, though, so don’t expect too much. Jonathan
Williams would likely touch the ball a handful of times again
if McCoy is out, but not enough to be fantasy relevant himself.
If McCoy does play, there’s a good chance that he’ll
still split carries with Gillislee, thus making both players difficult
to trust for fantasy purposes. Because this game is on Monday
night and the decision on McCoy isn’t likely to be made
until Monday, it would be wise to sit both players unless you
own both and can make the decision prior to game time.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Unlike the quarterback who will be opposite
him in Week 9, Seattle QB Russell Wilson has been extremely disappointing
from a fantasy standpoint so far this season. Wilson’s passing
yardage numbers have been fine, but his rushing has been practically
non-existent due to a knee injury that he sustained earlier in
the year. Wilson has also now failed to throw for a single passing
touchdown in three straight contests. In fact, he’s only
thrown for more than one touchdown pass in one game this season.
Wilson’s lack of production has, of course, greatly affected
his top wide receiver, Doug Baldwin, who has just two touchdown
receptions on the season and hasn’t scored or eclipsed 70
yards in a game since Week 3. Right now, the only player in this
passing game who is playing well is tight end Jimmy Graham who
struggled a bit in Week 8, but had previously caught five or more
passes in four straight contests. This passing game is struggling
greatly right now and it’s tough to do because of where
he was drafted, but wise fantasy owners might look for other options
against a Buffalo defense that has held every quarterback not
named “Tom Brady” to one or zero touchdowns so far
this season.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: With Wilson and the passing game struggling
the fantasy stud in this Seattle offense has surprisingly been
running back Christine Michael. Michael only touched the ball
11 times in Seattle’s Week 8 loss to the Saints, but he
was able to salvage an otherwise disappointing day with a touchdown.
Michael has now scored six total touchdowns on the season and
while the return of Thomas Rawls looms, Michael should remain
the lead back in Seattle. With the Bills playing as well as they
have against the pass and Wilson struggling, this looks like it
could be a heavy workload day for Michael. Buffalo has given up
three rushing touchdowns and nearly 300 yards total rushing yards
– including a monster day to Jay Ajayi – over their
past two contests. Seattle would be wise to lean on their running
game in what should be a low scoring, hard hitting Monday night
contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick laid claim to the starting
job for at least one more week with a hard earned victory in Cleveland
last week. There was not Fitzmagic, however, as he was erratic
and incredibly inefficient. Fitzpatrick completed less than half
his passes for just 228 yards The good news is he targeted Quincy
Enunwa (11) and Brandon Marshall (9) a total of twenty times.
The bad news is they only caught four balls each. Marshall continues
to be treated as a WR1 in the fantasy community despite only having
been a WR1 three times this season and not since Week 5. Enunwa
has scored in back to back games now, but he hasn’t seen
any consistent volume all season. The Dolphins are actually top
ten in passing yards against and have allowed a respectable ten
passing touchdowns on the season. While I certainly wouldn’t
view this as a poor matchup for the Jets, it’s not as great
as one would think – and neither is Brandon Marshall.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: I’m not quite sure what Todd Bowles
is doing with Matt Forte. He touched the ball 59 times over the
first two games. Then he touched the ball 57 times over the next
four games. Now, over the last two games, Forte has touched the
ball 61 times. It’s like a roller coaster of usage with
no real way to predict when we’re going up or down. Still
averaging a career low 3.5 yards per carry, Forte is clearly not
the runner he once was, but as long as the volume is there, Forte
is an RB1. The Dolphins allow 135.6 rushing yards per game so
the situation can’t be much better for Forte this week.
Bilal Powell had a useful game as well last week, but he still
only saw seven touches and is not reliable when Forte is seeing
this much work.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jets have the worst passing defense
in the NFL, allowing a league high 289.1 passing yards per game.
Darrelle Revis is done. He is so incredibly done that he basically
admitted it himself. Ryan Tannehill has proven to be capable of
taking advantage of good matchups and situations (Cleveland in
Week 3 and lighting up New England in garbage time Week 2). With
Dalton, Brady, Cousins, and Palmer having the week off, Tannehill
is a nice streaming option. He will continue to focus on Jarvis
Landry, who has had at least seven catches or 78 yards in all
but one game this season. Who knows, maybe Landry will even find
the end zone for the second time. Kenny Stills is the other guy
in this passing attack, firmly ahead of DeVante Parker. Stills
is not a strong option, but again, with the bye weeks, you could
do worse.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Did Ricky Williams come out of retirement
and morph into Jay Ajayi? That’s really the only explanation
I have for how Ajayi suddenly went from “guy we believe
in so little that we signed Arian Foster” to “fourth
player in NFL history to rush for 200 yards in consecutive games.”
On the list of things I did not see coming, this would rank right
up top with Russell Wilson being droppable even in 2-QB leagues.
Okay Jay, you have my attention now. Ajayi has been so good his
last two games he literally sent Arian Foster into retirement.
Things do not get much more difficult than the top rushing defense
in the NFL. The Jets allow just 74 rushing yards per game, which
is usually what Ajayi does in a quarter. Isaiah Crowell is averaging
4.9 yards per carry on the season but he managed a mere 29 yards
on 11 carries against the Jets last week. If Ajayi comes out of
Week 9 with another big game, he might very well be a first round
pick in 2017. But that’s a big “if.” I’m
having a difficult time completely reversing field on on Ajayi
after just two incredible performances. This matchup is difficult
and you cannot bench Ajayi at this point if you own him, but don’t
be surprised if he puts up a dud.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week, another subpar performance
from Carson Wentz. At least he cracked 200 yards in this one.
Wentz threw 43 passes against the Cowboys and completed an impressive
32 of them, yet somehow only managed 202 yards. Wentz is completely
off the fantasy radar. But we have some great news from last week:
Jordan Matthews has awoken. The Eagles treated their best receiver
by far like he deserves with 14 targets and Matthews answered
the call, catching 11 of them for 65 yards and a score. If JMatt
is going to continue to be used this way, he will push WR1 value
in PPR formats. The last time we saw the Giants play, they were
getting eaten alive underneath by Tavon Austin. The Giants are
vulnerable to slot receivers, which is where Matthews primarily
lines up. I love Matthews’ rest of season schedule and think
he continues trending upwards this week.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Darren Sproles completely dominated the
Eagles backfield last week, but I don’t want to get overly
excited. Doug Pederson’s use of his running backs has been
wildly unpredictable. With that being said, Ryan Mathews played
just eight snaps. There have been games where Sproles didn’t
touch the ball often, but he was never on the field that little.
Sproles’ fifteen carries are more than his previous four
games combined. For the first time all season, there was an intent
to get the ball to Sproles. The running game plan was Sproles.
While Mathews still managed a touchdown, you cannot trust a guy
seeing just eight snaps. You might as well start John Kuhn because
all you’re hoping for is a short touchdown. The Giants have
been strong defending the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry,
but Sproles is not a true running back and the Eagles, apparently,
will find ways to get him the ball. My belief in Sproles has been
renewed.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I truly believe that Eli Manning is the
fifth best quarterback in his own division. I still see him owned
in far too many of my fantasy leagues and I can’t figure
out why. Manning has had two games with fewer than 200 yards passing
and three games with no touchdown passes. He has eight touchdown
passes on the season, with six of them coming in two games. He
also has turned the ball over eight times. He looked dreadful
against the Rams and now has had two weeks to sit in the corner
and think about what he’s done to Odell Beckham. Beckham’s
talent has gone anywhere and even at far less than 100%, he looked
mostly like himself in London. But the reality is Beckham has
been a major bust. He has 40 receptions for 630 yards on the season,
but over half of those yards came in two games. Beckham has yet
to record a double digit reception game and only topped 100 yards
twice. The two-week break should help him get healthy, but the
real problem is his quarterback. Watching Manning against the
Rams was like watching a high school quarterback in his first
start – he rarely ever went past his first read and looked
incapable of actually moving through progressions. He would just
look at the primary read on a play and throw it. For some reason,
that was rarely Beckham. It wasn’t working as Victor Cruz
has been fantasy useless all season and there’s nothing
“Sterling” about Shepard’s 101 yards total over
his last four games. The Eagles allow the fifth lowest passing
yards against per game at 214.1. If Manning can’t get his
act together, Beckham might be calling for his love, the kicking
net, to replace Manning under center.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game is the worst in
the NFL. It’s been that way for a while – since Shane
Vereen went down. Rashad Jennings should not be in the NFL anymore
(13 carries for 25 yards last game, 2.7 ypc this season). Bobby
Rainey cannot be a feature back. There is some hope here with
Paul Perkins. Perkins is not an amazing talent, but is far superior
than the Giants’ other options. However, the Giants have
not shown to be very good at evaluating talent at the RB position
for years, consistently using their lesser backs far more than
they should. Perkins is the only Giants’ running back you
want and only because of the possibility he sees more work going
forward. It’s hands off the Giants backfield this week even
against an Eagles team that’s vulnerable on the ground to
the tune of 4.7 yards per carry allowed.
Value Meter:
WR1: Odell Beckham Jr. (mid-range)
Bench: All other Giants
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cleveland Browns are allowing 285 passing
yards per game and have allowed a league worst 19 passing touchdowns
this season. While Dak Prescott is a rookie quarterback, which
is usually not a recipe for fantasy success, he has been a fantasy
QB1 more often than not this season. Facing the Browns with a
healthy Dez Bryant it’s conceivable that he’s the
top fantasy quarterback this week. Dez played in 88 percemt of
the team’s snaps last week in his first game back and naturally
scored a touchdown. Dez is a scoring machine with 45 touchdowns
in 59 career games. The return of Bryant will continue to take
some targets away from Cole Beasley, who was Prescott’s
favorite target while Bryant was out. However, the diminutive
slot man has gained over 50 yards in every game so far this season
and should have little trouble in this matchup as Cleveland has
not been able to contain opposing slot receivers. They did acquire
line-backer Jamie Collins from the Patriots this week, which should
help their defense pressure opposing quarterbacks and also help
in coverage, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll make
an immediate major impact.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: What will happen when the irresistible
force meets…..absolutely no resistance? The Cowboys come
into the game with a five game streak of rushing for at least
175 yards, and will meet a Browns team that is one of the worst
in the league against the run (allowing 143.8 yards per game with
10 touchdowns). Rookie Ezekiel Elliott is largely responsible
for most of those rushing yards and is on pace to set the all
time rookie rushing record. Running behind one of the best offensive
lines in recent years and with the power, agility and balance
that Elliott posses, opposing defenses have little hope of slowing
the rookie down. The Browns have even less hope.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Browns rotating quarterback position
(the team has used six players at the position already) will either
give another start to veteran Josh McCown or land back on rookie
Cody Kessler if he makes it out of the concussion protocol. McCown
gives the team a better chance to win, but the 0-8 Browns are
better off seeing if Kessler has any kind of future with the team
than trying to win games. Kessler has actually played much better
than expected, which makes the decision that much easier for Hue
Jackson. Converted quarterback Terrelle Pryor has been outstanding
in his new position but a hamstring injury has kept him out of
practice this week and he could miss this week’s game. Dallas
has done a good job containing outside wide receivers this season
but could be without Morris Clairborne this week which would surely
benefit Pryor if he’s able to play. Cleveland should get
rookie Corey Coleman back from his broken hand to help in the
passing game. Coleman was having a nice start to his career early
in the season, but his owners may wish to wait a week before inserting
him into line-ups, after his long layoff.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell was second in the league
in rushing after the first four weeks, but the Browns being in
catch up mode in most games has limited his volume in subsequent
weeks and his production has dropped off considerably. Against
a Cowboys team that is limiting opposing rushing offenses to 92.9
yards per game while yielding only three rushing touchdowns, it
could be tough for Crowell to get on track this week. On the positive
side, Hue Jackson will likely want to establish the run especially
if the rookie Kessler is under center, so the volume could be
there as long as the Browns somehow keep from falling too far
behind.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has not had any time in the
pocket the last two weeks and with the way this offense has looked,
he has no business in fantasy lineups, outside of two quarterback
leagues, even in this plus matchup (Detroit is giving up the third
most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks). Stefon Diggs, especially
if Darius Slay remains out, is a good option coming off a big
game last Monday Night (8-76-1) as the team’s only true
playmaker on offense. Tight end Kyle Rudolph has seen his targets
drop considerably from where they were earlier in the season,
but will get an early Christmas present this week when facing
the top matchup for opposing tight ends with Detroit coming to
town. The Lions have allowed touchdowns to Jack Doyle (2), Dwayne
Allen, Delanie Walker, Richard Rodgers, Zach Miller, Lance Kendricks
and C.J. Fiedorowicz so far this season – not exactly a
murderer’s row of tight end talent.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: To say the Minnesota running game has
been nonexistent is an understatement. It’s been downright
terrible. The team has only six carries this season that have
gone for more than 10 yards. With Jerick McKinnon banged up, the
plodding Matt Asiata saw most of the carries last week. If McKinnon
misses another game, Asiata’s volume gives him a decent
floor and he’s at least shown a nose for the endzone in
the past, although he struggled in that capacity last week. While
the Lions have only allowed three rushing touchdowns on the season,
it would be tough to call this a difficult matchup since they
do allow 110 yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry. If McKinnon
does suit up, and it’s starting to look like he may, he
could be in for a decent day. Keep an eye on the news.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has been very up and down
this season. He has thrown for at least three touchdown passes
in four games this season, but he has combined for only three
in his other four games. This week is lining up as a down week
against the top ranked Minnesota defense that has not allowed
a quarterback to finish any higher than QB15 this season. Marvin
Jones has fallen off after a blistering start to the season and
will now line up against top corner Xavier Rhodes. It would be
very tough to trust him in this matchup. Golden Tate, on the other
hand, has seen his role increase and with a league high 73 percent
of his receiving yards coming after the catch, he could just find
some success after the catch in a game where passing yards will
be hard to come by.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Theo Riddick had his best game of the
season last week and should be another useful weapon for the Lions
against a defense that’s only real weakness has been defending
running backs in the passing game. He’s not likely to gain
many yards on the ground however, and neither is Zach Zenner,
who currently seems to be the preferred “big back”
option. The Vikings have allowed only four rushing touchdowns
on the season and just 92.6 yards per game on the ground. Riddick’s
value comes in the passing game however so don’t be afraid
of this matchup for him.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck has spent a lot of time either
on his back or running for his life behind a terrible Colts’
offensive line. He’s the only quarterback that has been
sacked more than once in every game so far this season. He’s
still been highly productive, but one has to wonder how long that
(or he) can last at this pace. He gets a soft matchup this week
as the Packers have allowed 13 passing touchdowns and are banged
up in the secondary. They are however a better than average pass
rushing team with 19 sacks on the season which could make for
a long day if the line continues to falter. Luck did get one of
his better weapons back last week, and Donte Moncrief played in
89 percent of the snaps in his first game back. While T.Y. Hilton
(hamstring) is the biggest threat on the team, Moncrief offers
the most complete package of size and speed. He’s another
weapon in the red-zone for Luck to take advantage of.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore at 33 years old has continued
to be productive but his lack of usage in the passing game has
limited his fantasy upside on a team that prefers to move the
ball through the air. Gore received only 9 carries last week,
and while OC Rob Chudzinski has stated he would like to get Gore
more carries, the Colts may have little choice but to rely on
Luck once again, as the Packers have been the best rush defense
in the league. The Packers allow only 74.4 yards per game on the
ground and have allowed only 2 rushing scores.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers is averaging a career high
39.3 passing attempts per game. This is due in large part to the
fact that the team has no running game to speak of after losing
Eddie Lacy and James Starks to injury. The team has been using
wide receivers Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb in the backfield
and the short passing game has been used as a pseudo run game.
Jordy Nelson has been scoring touchdowns at an incredible rate
but has lacked the explosiveness of past seasons while recovering
from his ACL tear suffered last season. The Packers passing game
should continue to hum against a porous Colts defense that is
only behind the Browns and Lions in allowing fantasy points to
opposing quarterbacks.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: The Packer running game, or lack thereof,
was addressed above, and even with Montgomery and Cobb missing
last week’s game things did not change much. It was fullback
type Aaron Ripkowski that saw most of the team’s limited
carries, and he could continue to see carries as a “better”
version of John Kuhn going forward. Montgomery should be back
this week and would likely see the most snaps of the “running
backs” which will lead to heavy targets out if the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers may get Ben Roethlisberger
back this week, as the veteran has been practicing in a limited
fashion. While fantasy owners will be glad to get him back into
their line-ups, Ben has traditionally struggled on the road against
this week’s opponent. Ben has thrown for only 7 touchdowns
against 11 interceptions in eight career games in Baltimore and
his high in passing yards is 280 yards in those games. Does that
mean that his owners should bench him? While he’s also struggled
in his first game back from past injuries and he’s likely
to be a bit hobbled, that’s a tough call. It’s certainly
not a given that he even returns this week, so obviously his owners
will need to stay on top of the situation. Off-season acquisition
Ladarius Green may make his Steeler debut this week, but in his
first game back and in a likely time-share with Jesse James, he
should not be rushed into any fantasy lineups. Antonio Brown has
topped 100 yards in both of Landry Jones’ career starts,
so Ben’s availability isn’t a major concern for him
necessarily, but whether or not you want to take a chance on Sammie
Coates or Eli Rogers should come down to Roethlisberger’s
status.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell has yet to find the
endzone, but he has still managed to finish as a RB1 in every
game since returning. He’s had over 100 yards from scrimmage
in all of those games and is obviously a major part of what the
team does on the ground and through the air. DeAngelo Williams
is likely still out with injury, leaving Fitzgerald Toussaint
as the backup running back once again this week. The Ravens have
played the run exceptionally well this season allowing only 81.9
yards per game and 3 rushing scores, but that’s not going
to matter much to an all purpose back like Bell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Steve Smith looks to be out again this week
which will not help the Ravens struggling passing game. Joe Flacco
has not taken his usual shots downfield and has not been a fantasy
factor thus far. A lack of weapons and a reliance on a short passing
attack has not done him any favors from a statistical viewpoint.
Mike Wallace has been the lone bright spot in this passing game.
The speedy veteran has seen a career renaissance, but he alone
is not enough to strike fear into opposing defenses.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Just when Terrance West was gaining some
traction as the Ravens’ feature back, he ran into the Jets
buzzsaw run defense gaining only 10 yards in the team’s
last game before the bye week. The bye week may also have given
the team more time to get rookie Kenneth Dixon, more acclimated
into the offense. John Harbaugh has stated that he would like
to see Dixon more involved, so that could complicate this backfield
a bit. It should be noted however, that the Steeler defense was
gashed by two power backs similar to West in LeGarrette Blount
and Jay Ajayi in their last two games - a fact not likely lost
on the Ravens. Dixon may have to wait one more week before he’s
incorporated more into the game plan.