Passing
Game Thoughts: Raise your hand if you thought Blake Bortles
and Keelan Cole would be quality fantasy plays in Week 17? The
Jaguars are locked into the No.3 seed in the AFC so the possibility
of the team resting some of its starters should be on the minds
of fantasy owners. However, HC Doug Marrone has stated his intentions
are to keep the foot on the gas pedal heading into the post season.
That is good news for anyone riding Jacksonville’s coattails.
Tennessee is surrendering the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks
over the past three weeks and Bortles has averaged the most fantasy
points amongst all other quarterbacks in the NFL during that same
stretch. Jacksonville’s hot passing game has been fueled
by post season fantasy darling, Keelan Cole. The beneficiary of
Marqise Lee being saddled with an ankle injury, Cole has stepped
into more playing time and he’s not blinking. Dede Westbrook
has not been able to carve out much room with Cole stealing the
spotlight and Jayden Mickens caught only one ball a week ago.
The Jags may be playing their starters but they are not likely
to play anyone nursing an injury. That means another week without
Lee and Allen Hurns would keep Cole relevant in the final week
of the regular season.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette has a three-game scoring
streak coming into the season finale and the Titans have allowed
only one of those in the past five weeks. The rookie may have
a tough time reaching the end zone, but he is a near lock to gain
29 yards to push him over the 1,000-yard plateau for the season.
For the first time since Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags have a running
back fantasy owners will fight to own coming into 2018. Fournette’s
been holding on as a RB2 since returning from injury and a similar
output is likely this week. The upside isn’t quite as high
as you’d like for DFS purposes, but the team wants him to
reach the same milestones so continue to ride him into the sunset.
Marrone’s comments regarding playing his starters make everyone
else in the backfield a wasted fantasy play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota has taken a step backwards
in 2017 and turnovers have made a bad season uglier. His 12 touchdown
passes this season are tied with Trevor Siemian (11 games played)
and Jacoby Brissett. Yet the Titans somehow remain in playoff
contention. The “win or go home” mentality will be
threaded into the game plan this week; subsequently creating an
illusion that Mariota may have the opportunity to somehow revert
to being the efficient, mobile quarterback that played in 2016.
The Chargers, Ravens and Bills are certainly hoping the Titans
come up short but stranger things have happened. Rishard Matthews
and Corey Davis are not a bad one-two combo for the Titans. One
of them will post WR3/Flex numbers and the other will likely flop.
Davis is all potential and upside, while Matthews is the grinder.
Tennessee will stay stubbornly consistent with the running game,
thereby limiting the upside of the entire passing offense. Eventually,
the Titans will take their shots downfield and Davis is the likelier
of the two to rise to the occasion with a big catch. Tight end
Delanie Walker hasn’t gone over 50 yards in the past three
games and will probably see a slight dip in targets considering
the opponent. Consider him a touchdown or bust fantasy tight end
in deeper pools.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: It took an untimely injury to a team hoping
for a playoff berth, but Derrick Henry is in line to receive a
huge workload in Week 17. DeMarco Murray’s leg injuries
finally caught up to him last week when he left with a knee injury
that will likely prevent him from playing in the season finale.
He has missed practice this week and his best-case scenario looks
like a game-time decision but check back for updates. The Titans
have a perfectly capable guy to take on a full workload so I wouldn’t
expect them to force the issue with a player who has been perennially
hurt throughout the 2017 campaign. That should leave the door
wide open for Henry to obtain unsung hero status. The Titans need
to win the ground game to have any shot in this matchup and Henry
has the talent to perform in a must win situation. How long will
the Jags defense continue to play hard in a game that won’t
impact their post season one iota? They are young and hungry for
sure, but who wants to keep tackling a six-foot three-inch, 247-pound
wrecking ball as the second half wears on? I’m not sure
the Titans will come out on top in this game but it won’t
be due to Henry’s lack of effort. The script simply needs
to be written for the former Vol to lead Tennessee into the post
season in front of the home crowd. With or without Murray, I’d
deploy Henry as a RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If Houston continues to chuck up 16 passes
a game with a quarterback struggling to complete half of them
fantasy managers need to simply move on. The truth is, T.J. Yates
has never completed more than 16 passes in a single game during
his brief career as a backup. DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t had
much luck in the quarterback department and he’s probably
going to watch this game from sidelines (calf) than limp through
a meaningless game. Will Fuller can be electric but as long as
the guy getting him the ball is bad, it’s going to be a
painful ride. Fuller will get the lion’s share of the whatever
targets are available in the passing game. Against the Colts defense,
that might be enough to give him a nod in three receiver lineups.
He’s might be the only player in the offense with a chance
to score double-digit fantasy points and might absorb some of
the touchdown fortune that has kept Hopkins from being a fantasy
bust over the past couple of weeks. Braxton Miller is the favorite
to step in for Hopkins. Injuries have plagued him throughout the
year but he should see a handful of targets in this contest. There
isn’t much upside to take a flier on him even in deep leagues.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller remains the starter and the
lead back but there isn’t anything to get excited about.
He has now had back-to-back games with limited rushing attempts
and is barely getting work in the passing game. Furthermore, Alfred
Blue has been giving a great effort in recent weeks. The matchup
isn’t horrible but the mere fact that the offense has produced
a whopping 13 total points in two games paints Miller into a state
of fantasy Claustrophobia. Fewer touches for a sub 4.0 YPC running
back, splitting carries in a low scoring offense makes for a low
floor and even lower ceiling. Blue offer more hope to the gullible
fantasy owner but he too finds himself in an unenviable position
for fantasy promise. The split workload and low scoring opportunities
make both players risky fantasy plays but Blue has been the better
option of late so stick with him if you are desperate.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As tough as it is to watch the Texans offense,
the unit trotting out there for the Colts isn’t much better.
Jacoby Brissett is looking like a backup quarterback more every
week. Three passing scores in five outings isn’t going to
strike much fear into the Houston secondary. Unlike the Texans,
Indy doesn’t simply throw the ball to T.Y. Hilton half the
time. As a result, he’s a riskier version of DeAndre Hopkins
despite the wonderful matchup. Chester Rogers or Kamar Aiken are
far too inconsistent to trust and TE Jack Doyle has suffered from
the same quarterback deficiencies as Hilton. It is tough to envision
a high scoring affair from either offense but both defenses are
certainly amenable to letting the other team score more than they
probably should. There is just enough target upside for Hilton
and Doyle to entertain starting them but that means believing
in the same quarterback that hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass
at home in his last two outings.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: It’s just another week for Frank
Gore and his owners. Nothing to feel too good about considering
he hasn’t been finding pay dirt on an offense struggling
to pick up first downs. Nothing to feel too bad about either without
any competition for carries in the backfield. The old man in Indy’s
backfield still needs over 100 yards to hit the 1,000-yard marker
for the year. It could also be Gore’s final home game as
a Colt. I would not be surprised if he gets his number called
a few extra times this weekend with little else for this coaching
staff to play for this week. Combine that opportunity against
the fifth friendliest foe for opposing running backs since Week
14 and you’ve got yourself a low-end RB2 or Flex in deeper
leagues. That may be wishful thinking, but what else are these
two teams bringing to the table?
Passing
Game Thoughts: Atlanta and Julio Jones could use a week
of rest but that won’t be the case with the team clinging
to the No.6 seed. Jones is nursing hand and ankle injuries so
he will likely miss practice throughout the week. He will be in
the lineup and showed that he’s still a tough matchup even
when playing hurt. Atlanta’s top wideout has averaged thirteen
fantasy points per game against the Panthers in ten career games
and maintains WR2 status this week. I can’t figure out why
Matt Ryan doesn’t get Mohamed Sanu more involved. He’s
certainly not going to get more targets than #11 but he has only
seen more than six targets twice in the last eight weeks. Given
the amount of attention on the opposite side of the field, lack
of a consistent tight end and it baffles me to think Sanu can’t
be better than three or four catches a game - which is what he
did the last time these teams met in November. No need to risk
further underachievement by starting him this week. Same applies
to the touchdown or bust Justin Hardy and the forgotten Taylor
Gabriel. That’s what happens when your quarterback throws
three touchdowns against four interceptions over your past three
games. These are definitely not last year’s Falcons and
I’m predicting more heartbreak for Atlanta.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: 56 total yards on 13 touches left many
Devonta Freeman owners hanging last week. Opponents are making
the running game their number one priority and as long as the
Falcons fizzle with the pass, there will be less room to run for
Freeman. Carolina has been the best against the run over the past
three weeks so this might be the time to safely place your Falcons
running backs on the bench. Then again, if the Panthers rest some
guys, there is hope Freeman will run a bit more freely so keep
him locked in as your RB2 and expect a bumpy ride. Tevin Coleman
found the end zone last week. Like many others on this roster,
he has become a touchdown or bust fantasy player. He’s a
flex option in deeper PPR leagues but there’s plenty of
risk since he won’t be the first option in the ground game
or the passing attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Panthers have clinched a playoff spot
and will certainly give a few guys rest this week. Devin Funchess
is already dealing with a shoulder injury so he’s a prime
candidate to see less practice and perhaps less work if he does
play. I wouldn’t remove him from Flex consideration but
be sure to monitor the chatter out of Carolina this week to get
a better idea if the team is planning on giving him his regular
reps. Cam Newton’s shoulder continues to keep him out of
practice but he doesn’t appear to be in any danger of missing
this game. Damiere Byrd has been placed on IR with a leg injury
meaning Brenton Bersin figures to see a few more snaps this week.
Just keep in mind that the coaching staff is likely preaching
caution to Cam Newton. I expect the Panthers passing game will
feature plenty of simple, quick reads on shallow routes. For this
reason, I’d avoid using anyone other than Olsen outside
of PPR leagues. Carolina’s TE was a huge miss for me last
week and he’s at risk of getting more rest heading into
the playoffs. Still, I think the team will want to get him and
Newton to head into the playoffs on a high note so don’t
be surprised if he rebounds by leading the team in receiving for
Week 17.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Jonathan Stewart is getting extra
rest this week and could be in for a reduced workload. He hasn’t
exactly been a force for fantasy owners but his presence continues
to take a few touches away from Christian McCaffery. The Panthers
have progressively gotten better at utilizing McCaffery throughout
the year and could use this game to gain more insight into how
things might look in the near future. The rookie has a good shot
to go over ten carries in this game which should give him a better
than average shot to go over 100 total yards as well. The Falcons
won’t overlook McCaffrey in their preparations but anytime
a true playmaker is likely to receive a boost in touches, fantasy
value goes up. The playoffs may be locked up, but the team would
certainly love to bring home a division title. Look for McCaffrey
to deliver as a top 25 RB across all formats for Week 17.
Passing
Game Thoughts: No need to be alarmed about Michael Thomas
(hamstring) missing practice early in the week. He is expected
to play and be one of the best fantasy plays in Week 17 as the
Saints get their turn against the lowly Buccaneers. Though the
running game has been tremendous this season, Thomas is the hottest
receiver not named Keelan Cole these days. He’s going to
be a popular DFS pick and must start for re-drafters still vying
for a Championship. Drew Brees also gets a bump up the rankings
to close out 2017. Like most of his better weeks, he might not
hit the 300-yard mark but he stands a great shot at scoring multiple
touchdowns and posting over 20 fantasy points for the third time
in the last four games. I expect the Bucs will be able to move
the ball just enough to keep the Saints actively passing the ball
into the fourth quarter and allowing a secondary receiver like
Ted Ginn Jr. to get just enough targets to have a solid outing
this week. He’s been a volatile flex option most of the
year, but the light turns green in this matchup.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram hasn’t played as well
in his last two road games and failed to score double digit fantasy
points against Tampa Bay earlier this season. That isn’t
enough to keep him benched but it does cast a cloud on his Week
17 forecast where he’s probably an average RB2. Alvin Kamara
just keeps producing. He’s found ways to produce for his
owners despite sharing carries with Ingram and would only benefit
from the Bucs hanging around in this game. New Orleans is locked
into the playoffs but can lock up the division with a win so I
don’t expect them to let up until this game is firmly in
hand. As a result, both running backs remain must starts.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay came up three points short of
upsetting the Panthers last week and could be a thorny opponent
against the Saints in Week 17. Tampa’s offense rests on
the arm of Jameis Winston these days. He is starting to settle
in after a turbulent year and I expect him to air it out in a
“nothing to lose” mentality. If the Bucs are going
to avoid another drubbing (Tampa lost by 20 in their last meeting
with the Saints) Mike Evans will need to lead the charge. He’s
been one of the top 15 fantasy receivers of late despite ranking
27th in targets over the past three weeks. Winston needs Evans
to take him from being a low-end starter to one of the top five
or six choices at the position for Week 17. If the Saints are
able to keep Evans in check, Tampa will really need to throw the
ball around in the second half. Both scenarios lead to fantasy
success for Winston. Adam Humphries is the only other receiver
getting regular targets in the offense but without much touchdown
potential he falls short for fantasy purposes. Cameron Brate didn’t
take advantage of his freedom after O.J. Howard was placed on
IR. The Saints have been solid against opposing tight ends all
year making it even more important for Mike Evans to step up.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints are coming off a week in which
they held the Falcons running game to only 48 yards so don’t
get too excited about Tampa’s new RBBC having success this
weekend. On the bright side, Peyton Barber has been solid but
unspectacular as the lead horse in Tampa’s committee. The
23-year-old running back from Auburn has carried a 4.3 YPC since
getting more playing time in Week 13. Unfortunately, he needs
more touches to be a useful fantasy starter and the scoring chances
are too limited to make him a viable flex option. Doug Martin
has fallen from the top of the fantasy ranks to become the second
man in Tampa’s backfield. He has little to no fantasy value
but will continue to steal enough carries to prevent Barber from
becoming a late season fantasy asset.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brett Hundley leads the Packers into Detroit
for a meaningless game between two teams eliminated from playoff
contention. Hundley’s season as an injury replacement for
Aaron Rodgers has been a mixed bag of impressive performances
and underwhelming games, with the former UCLA Bruin not making
the most of the situation to build his possible trade value with
other teams.
Hundley enters the final week of the season as the 34th ranked
quarterback in points scored per game (15.3), behind less than
stellar players like DeShone Kizer, Trevor Siemian, Jacoby Brissett,
and Smokin’ Jay Cutler. Although he impressed with a couple
of three-touchdown performances on the road against the Steelers
and Browns, he has been dreadful at home with zero touchdown passes
at Lambeau Field in 162 pass attempts.
Fortuneatley for Hundley’s fantasy owners (Hopefully not
many readers are stuck playing him in anything other than two
quarterback leagues), this game will take place on the road at
Ford Field against a Lions team that has allowed the seventh-most
points to opposing quarterbacks over the past five games.
Leading receiver Davante Adams missed last week’s game
against the Vikings with a concussion suffered against the Panthers
Week 15 and will likely sit once again in this meaningless final
game of the year. Jordy Nelson missed practice on Thursday after
missing the second half of the Vikings game with a minor shoulder
injury. His return to the field seems unlikely but doesn’t
matter anyway considering the fact that Hundley and Nelson have
yet to build a rapport in Rodgers’ absence. For owners in
deep leagues, Randall Cobb may be worthy of a start with the hope
of a random touchdown reception against a beatable Lions secondary.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: After a streak of three games with 25.5,
18.3, and 23.8 points between weeks 12 and 14, rookie Jamaal Williams
struggled with three and 5.8 points over the past two games against
stout run defenses of the Panthers and Vikings. Minnesota stacked
the box repeatedly against Hundley, daring the Pack to throw against
a single high safety, while shutting down the run. Hundley was
unable to do anything in the passing game and the strategy to
stack against the run worked out well.
With the Lions struggling against the pass and the run over the
last month of the season, the likelihood of Williams delivering
a third consecutive dud is not likely and the rookie from BYU
should be considered a strong start for those owners still playing
fantasy Week 17.
Only the Bills have allowed more fantasy points to opposing running
backs this season than the Lions, with Detroit giving up 17 total
touchdowns, including 168 total yards and a rushing touchdown
to Gio Bernard in a disappointing 26-17 loss to the hapless Bengals
last week. With this being a divisional game between two teams
that hate each other I expect the Lions to be more motivated to
stop Williams, but there is no denying the fact that the Detroit
struggles with the run and Williams should find success.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford quietly finished the standard
16-week fantasy season as the number 10 quarterback in fantasy
points per game. His average of 21.3 points puts him ahead of
Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees, and he was only 1.5
points behind Tom Brady for seventh place.
From Weeks six through 12 Stafford was one of the most consistent
fantasy performers at the quarterback position, with six consecutive
games of at least 20 fantasy points, highlighted by a 28 point
performance in a shootout loss to New Orleans in Week 6. Owners
thinking of starting Stafford at home against the Packers should
feel confident in their decision, as the former Georgia Bulldog
has scored at least 20 points against the Pack in every contest
against Green Bay dating back to 2014.
No team has allowed more point to opposing quarterbacks over
the past five weeks than the Packers, with Cam Newton and Ben
Roethlisberger each topping the 30-point plateau over the past
month vs. Green Bay.
The resting of star players is always a concern in meaningless
Week 17 games, especially for teams like the Packers who have
numerous star players on both sides of the ball dealing with ailments.
Resting players does not appear to be an issue for Detroit, as
head coach Jim Caldwell has already stated that he intends on
starting his full roster on Sunday. Whether or not Stafford, Marvin
Jones and Golden Tate play the entire game is another story.
Although the Packers rank near the bottom of the league in points
allowed to tight ends, the recent trend of targets and production
for Eric Ebron should not be ignored. The former first round pick
has nine or more points in each of his last three games, with
touchdowns against Chicago and Cincinnati. Staying in the fire
with Ebron is not the worst play this week, especially against
an injury-depleted Packer linebacking group.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions ground attack continues to be
one of the worst in the National Football League as the franchises’
inability to produce a 100-yard rusher extended to four seasons.
The selection of Ameer Abdullah in the second round of the 2015
NFL draft has proven to be a mistake, as the former Nebraska Cornhusker
lacks the size needed to break tackles behind a subpar offensive
line.
Theo Riddick is one of the most talented pass catching running
backs out of the backfield, but he too lacks the size to be an
every down back in the NFL. Rookie Tion Green has earned some
carries late in the season after Abdullah was demoted and has
shown some spark, yet it appears clear that addressing the running
back position via free agency and the draft will be a focus for
Detroit in 2018.
For fantasy purposes, a matchup at home against a Packers team
that ranks 14th in points allowed to running backs over the past
five games is attractive to say the least. The problem, is guessing
which Lions running back will be the one to have fantasy value.
Abdullah may luck out and find the end zone, while Riddick could
be active catching passes out of the backfield and reach pay dirt
on a screen.
The best course of action for owners still alive in the playoffs
is to avoid this backfield altogether in favor of a player with
a more certain level of usage.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky just passed Aaron Rodgers
in total fantasy points scored on the season with his 20.1 point
performance at home against the Browns, which included his second
rushing touchdown in three weeks. Unfortunately, for the former
second overall pick from North Carolina, it took 11 games as a
pro to do what Rodgers managed in just six games (not counting
the injury game against the Vikings), and Rodgers threw an uncharacteristically
high six interceptions over that span.
Of course I kid, and comparing a rookie to Aaron Rodgers is a
silly thing to do at this point in Trubisky’s young career.
But there are a few interesting trends late in the season that
should give Bears fans hope heading into the offseason. First,
after starting off with seven games completing 60% or less of
his passes, Trubisky has been much more efficient in the last
month of action. He completed just under 80% of his passes against
the 49ers and Bengals, while scoring at least 20 fantasy points
in each of his last three games.
That streak will not likely continue this week against a Vikings
team that allows the second-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks.
Only four quarterbacks have reached the 20-point threshold against
Mike Zimmer’s team and the Vikings have allowed only one
passing touchdown in the last five games.
Under no circumstances should Trubsiky be started against the
Vikings, even in the deepest of two quarterback leagues. But there
are some positive signs as of late from the rookie, including
his ability to create fantasy points with his legs. Just don’t
make the mistake of starting him in a matchup where single digit
returns are a likely result.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard avoided a sophomore slump
with 1,111 years and nine rushing touchdowns on 267 carries. A
pretty impressive accomplishment when you consider the tough division
he plays in and the lack of a supporting cast on the Bears to
help take away pressure on the running game. If Mitchell Trubisky
is able to progress and give Chicago a viable passing threat the
sky is the limit for Howard and his fantasy owners.
One reason for Howard’s success over the past month is
the fact that he has been fortunate to play against three bottom
tier run defenses down the stretch, including an injury-depleted
Bengals unit Week 14 and a Lions squad that allows the second
most points in the league to opposing running backs.
Howard faces the opposite end of the spectrum this week against
a Vikings team that allowed the fewest points this year to tailbacks,
making Howard a less than attractive play for those still playing
fantasy Week 17.
If you take out a somewhat fluky thee-touchdown game against
the Vikings by Jonathan Stewart of the Panthers Week 14, Minnesota
allowed just four rushing touchdowns in just under 300 attempts
this year. Howard actually delivered one of the better rushing
performances against the Vikes when he ran for 76 yards on 19
carries Week 5, but expecting a repeat performance on the road
against a Minnesota team looking to secure a first round bye is
not likely in the cards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Unlike other playoff bound teams that cannot
change their seating with a win, the Vikings have very much to
play for with a first round bye up for grabs with a win over the
Bears.
Although he will get very little consideration for MVP, journeyman
quarterback Case Keenum has been the most valuable player for
the Vikings in guiding the team to a 12-3 record after injuries
to Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford. Keenum set career highs
in every single statistical category, including attempts (452),
completions (304), completion percentage (67.3), passing yards
(3,358), and passing touchdowns (21). Keenum was also one of the
most efficient quarterbacks in limiting turnovers, with seven
interceptions in 452 pass attempts.
From a fantasy perspective, Keenum finished outside of QB1 consideration
as the 19th overall in points per game, but he did perform better
that other more highly touted players like Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota,
Derek Carr, and Tyrod Taylor, and he average less than one point
per game fewer than No.12 ranked Dak Prescott.
The Bears present a fairly difficult challenge for Keenum and
the Vikings passing offense as a secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest
points to opposing quarterbacks. Only four quarterbacks managed
to throw for multiple touchdowns against the Bears, and only Matt
Ryan in Week 1 managed to top more than 300 passing yards. Keenum
finished with a modest 13.2 fantasy points on 17 of 21 attempts
for 140 yards and a score when the two teams faced off at Soldier
Field Week 5. A similar level of production can be expected on
Sunday, although playing at home as opposed to on the road should
boost Keenum’s production closer to 20 fantasy points.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: The trio of Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray,
and Jerick McKinnon collectively rank sixth overall in fantasy
points per game at 20.9, just a half point behind Melvin Gordon
and the Chargers running backs.
Murray and McKinnon took over the starting duties after Cook
sustained an ACL tear against Detroit in Week 4. McKinnon appeared
to be the more valuable of the two backs in the middle of the
season with consecutive 20-point performances against the Bears
and the Packers in Weeks 5 and 6, only to fade into fantasy oblivion
until reemerging Week 13 with a receiving touchdown against the
Falcons.
Although McKinnon’s first big game of the season came against
the Bears in Chicago, Vic Fangio’s defense has been one
of the best units against the run over since Week 10 of the regular
season. No opposing back has scored a rushing touchdown against
the Bears since Ty Montgomery of the Packers in Week 10 and no
opposing back has reached triple digits in rushing yards.
Of the two, McKinnon has the best chance for a big game as the
primary passing tailback out of the backfield. If there is one
weakness in the Chicago defense it is covering pass catching running
backs on screens and passes in the flat. Look for Keenum and the
Vikings to take advantage of this weakness with multiple screens
to McKinnon on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: We may never know what type of player DeShone
Kizer could have been in the NFL, as it is clear that the poor
handling of Kizer by head coach Hue Jackson has likely mentally
scarred the former Norte Dame star. Instead of nurturing his young
player and building up his confidence, Jackson took the opposite
route with questionable comments to the press about his young
quarterback and a string of bizarre benchings throughout the season.
Hopefully Kizer will be able to work past the unfortunate situation
in Cleveland and resurrect his career with another organization
after his likely release this offseason.
For fantasy purposes, Kizer should not be considered a viable
start this week on the road against a Steelers team that has much
to play for with home field advantage on the line. The Steelers
allow the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season and
only three opposing QBs managed to score 20 or more points at
Heinz Field in 2017.
One of Kizer’s biggest problems has been interceptions,
particularly in the red zone and on third down when he is trying
to force the ball into tight coverage. The Steelers are tied for
8th in interceptions forced, and Keith Butler’s defense
is capable of getting pressure on Kizer even in the absence of
star linebacker Ryan Shazier.
Josh Gordon’s return to the Browns passing game has been
somewhat anticlimactic, with the former fantasy star averaging
just seven fantasy points per game over the past four contests.
Gordon flashed his unique gift of size and speed with 154 yards
and a touchdown in his first two games after retuning from suspension,
only to burn owners in the fantasy playoffs with 6.5 combined
points over the past two weeks. The upside of Gordon scoring a
touchdown is too great to bench him, but owners should not be
surprised if Gordon and Kizer continue with their struggles.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The loss of Ryan Shazier is noticeable
in the rush defense of the Steelers - a unit that has allowed
the third-most points to opposing tailbacks since Shazier went
down with a spinal injury. An opposing running back has scored
a touchdown and/or reached 100 yards in each of the last four
games, including Alfred Blue of the Texans rushing for 108 yards
on 16 carries in a blowout win for Pittsburgh against Houston
Week 16.
Both Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson will benefit from Pittsburgh’s
recent struggles against the run and both should be considered
flex plays this week. A negative game script will likely keep
Crow’s touches to between 10 and 15 for the game, but his
recent success with limited volume suggests he should be able
to once again rush for nearly 75 yards on just 15 carries. The
question is will he be able to reach the end zone, something he
has not been able to due since Week 10 against the Lions.
Johnson has three consecutive games of at least 10 fantasy points
in FFtoday standard scoring, and should continue his streak as
the pass catching back with the Browns chasing points in the second
half.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In a bid to avoid becoming only the second
team to ever finish 0-16, the Browns face a difficult opponent
in the Steelers on Sunday. Although the Steelers have secured
a first round bye in the Wild Card round, they still have much
to play for as a Pittsburgh win and New England loss would give
the Steelers home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
After a dreadful start to the season that included a five interception
game against the Jaguars in front of the home crowd at Heinz Field,
Ben Roethlisberger bounced back in the second half of the season
to finish the standard 16-week fantasy season as the No. 6 QB
in total points scored and the No.9 QB in average points.
Big Ben led all quarterbacks in the final five weeks of the season
with 135 fantasy points on 143 of 210 passing for 1654 yards and
12 touchdowns. Fantasy owners who added Ben after the Steeler’s
bye were treated to a top 3 quarterback and a difference making
player for the fantasy playoffs.
Despite the opportunity to win home field advantage throughout
the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Patriots to the Jets,
Mike Tomlin is reportedly going to sit both Ben Roethlisberger
and Le’Veon Bell to ensure they are fresh for the divisional
round.
Landry Jones will likely start for the Steelers with Joshua Dobbs
working as the No.2 quarterback against the Browns. The absence
of Big Ben and Bell hurts all skill position players across the
board, especially wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis
Bryant.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: With Le’Veon
Bell likely to sit out this game, Fitzgerald Toussaint will likely
carry the load for the Steelers, with recently signed Stevan Ridley
working in sporadically. Toussaint is an interesting addition
in deep leagues as a flex play, and his ownership levels in daily
fantasy will likely approach the 20% level.
The fourth-round player out of Michigan rushed for 58 yards on
14 carries in limited work last season after losing his job as
the primary backup of Bell to James Connor. Toussaint will likely
be motivated to play well in what will likely be a job interview
for 31 other teams who might sign him as a possible backup over
the offseason.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Quarterback Andy Dalton is on pace to tie
a career-low in fantasy points scored per game (16.9) as the Bengals
rap up a disappointing 2017 season against divisional rival Baltimore.
In what is likely the final game for head coach Marvin Lewis,
the Bengals will look to play spoiler as a win by the Ravens will
clinch a wildcard berth for Baltimore.
Upsetting the Ravens at M&T Bank stadium will be a tough
task for Dalton, A.J. Green, and the rest of the Cincinnati passing
game skill position players. Baltimore handed the Bengals their
worst loss of the year with a 20-0 loss in Week 1, with Dalton
committing five turnovers, including four interceptions on a dreadful
16 of 31 passing day for 170 yards and zero touchdowns.
On a positive note, this Baltimore team is a shell of the unit
Dalton faced earlier, with injuries to the secondary and linebacking
corps. Although the Ravens allowed the third-fewest points to
quarterbacks on the season, they have been a bit leaky over the
past five games, allowing 506 passing yards and two scores to
Ben Roethlisberger and nearly 300 yards to Matthew Stafford in
Week 13.
But against subpar quarterbacks the Ravens have been one of the
stingiest defenses all year, making Andy Dalton a subpar play
at best Week 17. Volume and touchdown upside makes A.J. Green
a worthy start each week, especially with cornerback Jimmy Smith
out with the ruptured Achilles tendon.
Perhaps the most valuable fantasy asset in the passing game is
also the most valuable asset in the running game, as Giovani Bernard
has been a fantasy stud in both aspects over the past three weeks.
With Joe Mixon likely out one again due to an injury, Bernard
should be the primary ball carrier on both early and passing downs.
The veteran back has 16 catches over his last three games to go
along with over 200 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners should expect a heavy dose
of Bernard against the Ravens on Sunday, as the most effective
way to move the ball against Baltimore this season has been on
the ground and not the air. The Ravens allow the 12th-most points
to running backs this year and are tied with the Chiefs, Rams,
and Seahawks for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns given up (12).
Five running backs over the past four weeks have managed to reach
double digit fantasy points vs. the Ravens, including Frank Gore
last week with 14.6 points on 86 total yards and a touchdown.
Although Baltimore’s points allowed average is somewhat
skewed by two monster games by Le’Veon Bell, they are still
more susceptible to the run than the pass, and Marvin Lewis will
not shy away from trying to run the ball over and over again in
his final game a the helm of the Bengals.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a dreadful start to the season in
which he managed to throw just six passing touchdowns in his first
eight games, Joe Flacco has finished strong as the No.10 fantasy
quarterback over the last five weeks of the season. Although he
has yet to top 300 yards or three passing touchdowns in a contest
this year, he is averaging just over 20 points per game in the
month of December, including 24.7 points against the Browns Week
15.
Flacco’s slow start to the season can be attributed him
missing most of the preseason with a back injury. When the Bengals
and Ravens faced off in Week 1, Flacco was not asked to do much
as the Ravens forced five turnovers of Andy Dalton in a lopsided
20-0 victory.
With a playoff berth on the line for the Ravens, look for Flacco
to have another 20-point performance against an injury riddled
Cincinnati defense that has allowed the 8th-most points over the
past month of action. Middle linebacker Vontaze Burfict missed
practice on Thursday with a shoulder injury that will likely keep
him out for the season finale, while cornerback Darqueze Denard
was limited with a knee injury.
It appeared as though the Bengal defensive unit quit on head
coach Marvin Lewis after an embarrassing 34-7 loss at home to
the Vikings Week 15. Perhaps inspired by the opportunity to knock
the Lions out of playoff contention, the Bengals bounced back
with an inspired 26-17 win over Detroit last week. With the chance
of possibly keeping Baltimore out of the playoffs (the Titans
and Bills must lose as well), the likelihood of the Bengals not
playing their hardest against a division foe like Baltimore is
slim.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens finished the 16-game standard
fantasy season at the No.7 ranked fantasy backfield, less than
a point behind Melvin Gordon and the Chargers for fifth place.
An impressive accomplishment considering the fact that pricey
free agent acquisition Danny Woodhead missed two-thirds of the
season with severe hamstring injury and Alex Collins entered the
year as an unproven second-year player from Arkansas. Collins
needs 105 yards to reach 1000 on the year, and his 9.7 fantasy
points per game places him tied with Christian McCaffrey for 19th
overall among running backs.
Reaching the century mark is not out of the question for Collins,
as the Bengals have been the second worst team in fantasy points
allowed over the past five weeks, and no team has allowed more
rushing yards during that span.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The once-prolific Oakland passing game has
continued to struggle down the stretch and most of these players
can be safely benched without much worry in what is an essentially
meaningless game for the Raiders. Quarterback Derek Carr has failed
to throw for multiple touchdowns three of his past four games
and has barely averaged 200 passing yards over that span. This,
of course, has contributed to the pathetic returns from receivers
Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Crabtree did snag a pair of
touchdowns in Week 15 against the Cowboys on just 39 receiving
yards but he was held catchless in Week 16 against the Eagles.
This week he’ll be against a Chargers secondary that he
did score against back in Week 6 but these teams are going in
opposite directions and it wouldn’t be surprising to see
Casey Hayward locked up on him for much of the afternoon. Cooper
has been scoring some fluky touchdowns but his production has
been astonishingly inconsistent and trusting him to produce fantasy
numbers in your championship week is probably not the best option.
Even tight end Jared Cook, who was once looking like he’d
have a chance to finish as a top five tight end this season, has
become a ghost in the passing game, catching just 12 total passes
with only one touchdown over his past six contests. Stay away
from this passing game if at all possible but Crabtree, Cooper
and Cook could all be deep options depending on your level of
desperation given the number of teams who are likely to rest their
starters this weekend.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: While the Oakland passing game has almost
completely fallen apart, Marshawn Lynch and the running game seem
to be getting better down the stretch. Lynch has produced at least
90 total yards and/or scored a touchdown in five straight contests
leading into this weekend’s game against the Chargers. Los
Angeles held Lynch out of the end zone and to just 63 rushing
yards when these teams squared off back in Week 6 but it was on
only 13 carries, giving Lynch nearly a five yards per carry average
on the day. The real concern here is not that Lynch isn’t
good enough, but rather that the Raiders could fall behind enough
on the scoreboard that running the ball becomes difficult. Still,
given the number of backs who are going to be held out this weekend,
Lynch is probably still an RB2 with RB1 upside if he can get into
the end zone. His value is better, as usual, in standard scoring
formats as opposed to PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Having thrown just one touchdown pass in
three of his past four games, Philip Rivers’ hot streak
seems to have come to an end at the worst possible time for his
fantasy owners. Perhaps a game against a Raiders secondary that
has forced a league-fewest five total interceptions on the season
can revive this struggling passing game but the loss of tight
end Hunter Henry, who is now on season-ending IR, is certainly
a concern. Veteran Antonio Gates is dealing with an illness that
has held him out of practice for much of the week but most believe
he will be ready to play on Sunday, which could make him an intriguing
fantasy option now that he isn’t splitting snaps with Henry.
Gates has scored in back-to-back contests and might be playing
in his final NFL game, so look for the Chargers to target him
at least a couple of times if they get near the end zone. The
other fantasy option in this passing game is Keenan Allen, who
has fallen back to reality a bit over the past couple of games
after a monumental stretch from Weeks 11 through 14, but he has
still been targeted heavily. Allen is one of the top receiving
options on the board this week against a bad Oakland secondary
in game the Chargers must win. It’s almost inconceivable
that he would not get targeted at least 10 times this week as
long as he remains healthy, so slot him in as a WR1 in all formats.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Another late-season injury is threatening
Melvin Gordon’s Week 17 status for the third season in a
row but most believe that the running back will be ready to suit
up on Sunday. The Chargers running back is getting nearly unmatched
volume in a good offense and he’ll be up against an Oakland
defense that he absolutely crushed back in Week 6, to the tune
of 150 total yards and three touchdowns. Most interestingly, Gordon
caught a career-high nine passes in that game, including two touchdowns
through the air, and the Raiders have nothing to play for other
than pride at this point in the season. If he’s ready to
play, Gordon will almost certainly see at least 20 touches with
the outside possibility of 30 touches depending on how the game
plays out. Backup Austin Ekeler, who had been breaking into Gordon’s
workload a bit due to his pass catching ability, has been playing
exclusively on special teams lately due to a hand injury that
has made it difficult for him to grip the football. Look for that
to continue and for Gordon to be the bell cow back that fantasy
owners have grown to know and love all season. If Gordon is unable
to suit up, it will likely be Branden Oliver – not Ekeler
– who steps in and takes over the primary ball carrier role
in this backfield. Oliver has been quiet most of this season but
he does have a history of late-season heroics and could be an
interesting plug-and-play option, especially given his low DFS
prices, if Gordon doesn’t play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was back to Drew Stanton in Week 16 for
the Cardinals and he’ll be behind center again this week
as Arizona heads to Seattle. Stanton himself isn’t a great
fantasy option in really any matchup but he did exactly what fantasy
owners wanted him to do in Week 16 when he peppered veteran receiver
Larry Fitzgerald with targets – 15 to be exact, in a blowout
win over the Giants. Fitzgerald caught nine of those passes for
119 yards and a touchdown and has now caught at least three passes
in every game this season on his way to his third-straight 100-catch
season. The other members of this passing game are simply not
worth looking at for fantasy purposes as their target shares are
far too low but Fitzgerald remains a mid-to-low-end WR1 depending
on your league’s scoring format and is at least capable
of putting up WR2 numbers against the Seahawks who are perhaps
the most injury-depleted secondary in the entire league. Fitzgerald
caught 10 passes for 113 yards against Seattle when these teams
faced off in Week 10, and that was prior to even more injuries
to the Seattle defense, so look for him to again be the focal
point of the passing game.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: While the Arizona passing game outside
of Larry Fitzgerald has been almost impossible to predict this
season, their running game has actually been one of the more clear
pictures in the league. They’ve suffered countless injuries
to the position at this point but each week we typically know
who is going to be the lead horse in the stable, and that player
is typically given enough of a workload to at least produce serviceable
fantasy numbers. Right now the backfield looks to be Kerwynn Williams’,
who has carried the ball at least 16 times in four straight contests
since Adrian Peterson was placed on IR. Williams has been dealing
with some bumps and bruises but is expected to play this weekend
and will likely serve as the team’s top runner. Unfortunately,
the Seahawks continue to be one of the league’s best run
defenses. Their recent numbers don’t look good at first
glance but further examination will show that the Seahawks have
faced Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette in their
past three contests. Needless to say, a matchup against Kerwynn
Williams sounds like a walk in the park in comparison to the aforementioned
superstar backs. It’s tough to trust Williams because of
the matchup here and his relative lack of overall talent but he
should get enough of a workload to give him a chance of at least
being a decent Flex play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Needing a win and some help to make the
playoffs, Seattle will almost certainly be relying heavily on
quarterback Russell Wilson and the passing game to carry them
to victory in Week 17. Wilson was surprisingly ineffective as
a passer against an average-at-best Dallas defense in Week 16
but his two passing touchdowns and 29 rushing yards were enough
to still allow him to produce avoid a disastrous fantasy day.
Things haven’t been smooth for Wilson down the stretch this
season but he’s simply one of those players who seems to
perform at his best when his back is against the wall –
and that’s certainly the case this week.
Wilson threw for a decent-enough 238 yards and two touchdowns
in a six-point road victory when these teams played back in Week
10 so expect more of that type of production in this contest which
will take place in Seattle. The player we need to be most worried
about right now is wide receiver Doug Baldwin who has been shockingly
bad over the past month of the season, catching just 17 passes
over his past six games combined. While he does have three touchdown
receptions over that stretch, which has helped to prop up his
otherwise ugly fantasy production, his lack of catches have to
be a major concern heading into Week 17. I still like Baldwin
as a high-end WR2 because of his “boom” potential
but there’s also a real risk of a bust here. Proceed with
caution. Tight end Jimmy Graham is also amidst a major drought
in fantasy production. Graham has just three total receptions
– combining for just two total yards – over his past
three contests. While injuries have played a part in him not getting
the separation that he normally does, Graham has also stone-handed
a few big passes down the stretch this season and there’s
a real chance that this will be his final game in a Seahawks uniform.
Graham does have a great matchup here against a defense that he
exploited for six receptions, including two touchdowns, back in
Week 10, but he, like Baldwin, is also fairly risky.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks seem to finally be sticking
with a back which is something we haven’t seen them do much
this season, but Mike Davis looks like the guy heading into Week
17. Unfortunately, being “the guy” in this offense
doesn’t necessarily mean much as Davis has only been able
to muster a measly 3.3 yards per carry on 52 carries over his
past four contests, and he isn’t contributing a whole lot
in the passing game either. Davis hasn’t yet scored a touchdown
but that’s mostly opportunity based rather than production
based, so he could certainly hit paydirt if the situation arises.
Still, this running game has been pathetic all season and it’s
hard to trust any of these players as more than a Flex play, especially
against an Arizona defense that continues to be elite against
the run, having given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing
running backs so far this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s a very small sample size but
as of right now, it looks like the 49ers might have pulled off
the trade of the decade earlier this season when they acquired
Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots. Garoppolo and the 49ers shocked
the world and absolutely wrecked the playoff-bound Jaguars this
past week as the young QB threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns
and one INT against arguably the league’s best secondary.
He also rushed for an additional touchdown. San Francisco is getting
a look at potentially the future of their franchise and they’ll
be looking to knock off another top team this week as they head
to Los Angeles to face the Rams, who have already locked up the
NFC West.
Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin was held in check this past week
by the pair of elite cornerbacks in Jacksonville but things won’t
be quite as difficult against the Rams this week. While Los Angeles
ranks in the top 10 in fewest points given up to opposing wide
receivers, they’re not necessarily a lock down secondary
and they’re liable to get beat deep on occasion. One player
to keep an eye on in this matchup, though, is slot receiver Trent
Taylor. Taylor has been coming on a bit over the final month of
the season and he’ll face a Rams defense that has had trouble
slowing down slot receivers as of late, including having given
up a 10-catch game to Larry Fitzgerald, an eight-catch game to
Nelson Agholor and a six-catch game to Eric Decker. Taylor isn’t
a guarantee by any means but he could be a sneaky DFS play or
even seasonal play in PPR formats for those in a tough situation
who are looking for someone to pick up off of waivers.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: While it’s mostly been the Jimmy
Garoppolo show in San Francisco for the past month, the truth
is that Carlos Hyde’s workload really isn’t going
anywhere. In fact, he’s carried the ball 68 times over the
past four contests - more than any other four-game stretch this
season. Unfortunately, the yardage just hasn’t been there
as he’s only been able to accumulate a 3.1 yards per carry
average over that stretch. One thing that has happened since Garoppolo’s
insertion into the lineup, however, is that Hyde has not been
nearly as impactful in the passing game, which is what helped
propel him into being a top-10 PPR back for the first three months
of the season. We’re also seeing more of backup Matt Breida
down the stretch, which does make some sense as the 49ers will
have to make some roster decisions regarding the running back
position this offseason which could result in Hyde’s departure
from the team. Breida has carried the ball at least 11 times in
three of the past four games, including scoring a touchdown this
past week with 74 yards on the ground. Hyde is still likely to
get the majority of the snaps and touches out of the backfield
but Brieda could be an interesting dart throw for DFS players
looking for a cheap option at running back. The Rams defense has
been awful against opposing running backs this season and conceded
a two-touchdown day to Hyde when these teams played back in Week
3.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Jared Goff and the majority of the
Rams offense already listed as resting for this Sunday’s
game, there’s not much to love out of this Los Angeles offense
heading into Week 17. Sean Mannion will fill in at quarterback
this week but the former third round pick has just 16 total regular
season pass attempts and he’s never thrown a touchdown.
Head coach Sean McVay has said that wide receivers Robert Woods
and Sammy Watkins won’t see much playing time, which could
very well mean none at all, and it’s also unlikely that
Cooper Kupp will play much. This means that we’ll likely
see some combination of Tavon Austin, Josh Reynolds and Pharoh
Cooper playing snaps at wide receiver. All three players have
some sort of pedigree to them but none have been particularly
effective even when given opportunities earlier in the season
with Goff behind center, so don’t trust any of them in your
fantasy lineup.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: The fantasy MVP this season has almost
unquestionably been Todd Gurley whose return to excellence propelled
many fantasy owners to a championship already. Those who are still
playing in Week 17, however, will be without Gurley who has been
listed as out already as the team has nothing to play for and
is looking forward to the playoffs. With Gurley out, look for
the Rams to turn to backup Malcolm Brown, who actually carried
the ball 10 times in Week 15 in the Rams’ blowout victory
over the Seahawks, and has carried the ball 49 times on the season
for 192 yards and one touchdown. Gurley exploited this San Francisco
defense for a monsterous 149 total yard, three total touchdown
day back in Week 3, so there is some hope that Brown could provide
fantasy value even playing in an offense without the regular starters
playing beside him. Brown is still only a Flex play but his price
on DFS sites will be cheap and he’ll probably be fairly
low-owned, so taking a chance on him and potentially getting 20-plus
carries looks like a nice potential outcome for fantasy purposes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Chiefs have opted to bench most
of their offensive starters in Week 17, having already locked
up the No.4 seed for the playoffs. The most notable change, perhaps,
is that we’ll get our first regular season glimpse of the
potential long-term quarterback in Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes,
who was among the most impressive rookies in the preseason. Mahomes
has a huge arm and above-average mobility but it remains to be
seen how he’ll be utilized in this matchup, especially given
that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce could see reduced playing time
or not play at all this Sunday, making both of them extremely
risky fantasy plays. Andy Reid has kept his cards close to his
chest regarding Kelce and Hill so fantasy owners will need to
pay close attention to what he says leading up to Sunday’s
game. Based on what we know now, fantasy owners should be looking
elsewhere for fantasy production, but unfortunately that won’t
likely come from the Kansas City roster itself. The Chiefs are
extremely thin at both receiver and tight end so it’s best
to avoid this situation altogether, especially given that this
is a road game against an elite pass defense like the one in Denver.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Potential rookie of the year Kareem Hunt
will also likely rest this weekend as the Chiefs turn to other
options in the backfield for Week 17. Charcandrick West looks
like the most obvious option to take over the majority of the
snaps but he’s dealing with an illness that has kept him
out of practice through Thursday. If he’s unable to practice
on Friday, there’s a real possibility that Akeem Hunt -
a third-year back and former Houston Texan - could end up getting
some significant playing time here. West’s illness could
be something simple as a contagious cold that will be fine by
Sunday but this is certainly a situation to keep an eye on. West
would be an interesting Flex play if he’s active and Kareem
Hunt is ruled out prior to Sunday’s game. Akeem Hunt could
be a sneaky minimum salary DFS play if both Kareem Hunt and West
are out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Broncos completely outside of the
playoff picture, the team will likely look to see what they have
in some of their young players. Most importantly, that’ll
mean taking another look at quarterback Paxton Lynch who has thus
far been a major disappointment in his short career. Lynch has
a cannon of an arm but seems to lack the mental capacity to grasp
the game, as demonstrated by his score of 18 on the Wonderlic
test. The fact that the Broncos took this long to give Lynch a
chance should tell fantasy owners that even they have very little
confidence in his ability to do anything on the field. That should
be a major red flag for fantasy owners of Demaryius Thomas. Thomas
will likely see coverage from Marcus Peters who has done a fairly
good job at containing him in the past even when there was decent
quarterback play. Emmanuel Sanders is unlikely to play yet again
so the Chiefs will be able to key in on Thomas, which will certainly
limit his opportunity to have a big game. That said, Thomas is
really the only show in town when it comes to catching the football
so a heavy target share might still allow him to produce decent
enough numbers to finish as a WR2. It can be tempting to try to
find a place in your lineup for depth receivers when you see a
defense as bad as Kansas City’s on the matchup sheet but
it’s smart to avoid the rest of this passing game like the
plague.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: It looked for a while like Devontae Booker
was set to take over as the lead back in Denver but C.J. Anderson
has been slamming that door shut down the stretch, having touched
the ball a whopping 96 times over his past four contests. That
includes a huge Week 15 rushing day against the Colts when he
ran the ball 30 times for 158 yards and another big Week 16 day
when he rushed for an additional 88 yards with a touchdown while
contributing 45 yards on seven catches in the passing game. Anderson
isn’t the most talented back in the league and he lacks
high-end speed and agility but what he has is something more important
-- touches. Anderson should be in line for another big workload
on Sunday with an inexperienced QB behind center. Normally that’d
be a recipe for disaster as his team could fall behind on the
scoreboard and end up passing more than usual, but with the Chiefs
likely benching many of their starters, the Broncos are actually
the favorite to win this game. Anderson has high-end RB1 potential
in this game due to his total volume.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The last thing you want is a Bryce Petty
led team traveling to New England to play the Patriots in a game
they need to win to secure the top seed in the AFC. Other than
Matt Forte’s one target, Petty only threw passes towards
Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
He has just 308 yards over his two starts. Anderson’s performance
with Petty has been the same across both games. He went 5-40 two
weeks ago and 5-51 last week. That’s about what you can
expect this week as well. ASJ’s eight targets were encouraging,
but he’s done nothing with his targets all season. Outside
of his 67-yard game in Week 10, his next high is 46 yards. He
has a very low ceiling along with the rest of this passing attack
while Petty is under center. Additionally, he has yet to practice
as of Thursday. Avoid all Jets in Week 17.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Bilal Powell
exploded for 145 yards and a touchdown last week. He ripped off
multiple big runs as the ground is the one area where the Chargers
have struggled. Powell was the clear lead back, but his success
cannot be something we expect to repeat against the Patriots.
Matt Forte only carried the ball eight times. While it looks like
it has finally become Powell’s backfield, it would hardly
be a surprise if Forte led the team in touches this week. Powell
is the safest option, but he comes with plenty of risk as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady extended his interception streak
to five games last week against the Bills while throwing for a
season low 224 yards. He did throw for two touchdowns, which was
his first multi-score game since November 26 against Miami. Brady’s
final numbers will look just fine, but he simply hasn’t
been a QB1 over the past month. He was barely a low end QB1 the
last time he played the Jets. That’s what he was last week
and it’s all we can really expect from him this week. Brady’s
decline has taken Brandin Cooks with him. He started the season
with a strong floor, but that’s completely fallen out over
the past month as well. After a four-game stretch of at least
five receptions, Cooks has caught 2-1-4-2 in his last four. He
is nothing more than a WR3 at this point. Rob Gronkowski, however,
is a man. His last four games have been monstrous. He’s
either caught nine passes for at least 147 yards or he’s
scored a touchdown. Gronk is immune to Brady’s decline.
Chris Hogan is not healthy and cannot be used even if he plays
and Danny Amendola just doesn’t have a big enough role to
be considered for fantasy lineups.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: With Rex Burkhead and James White out,
Mike Gillislee fell into the end zone, but the story was not about
Gillislee. It was the reemergence of Dion Lewis, as an elite RB1.
Lewis reminded everyone of what he can do when given the opportunity.
He handled a season high 24 carries for 129 yards and scored both
on the ground and in the air. With Burkhead out again this week
and Gillislee (knee) also unlikely to play, Lewis will once again
see a full workload. It took 16 weeks, but the Patriots backfield
finally has one clear guy and everyone else can be ignored.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For the second consecutive year, Dak Prescott
is staring down a meaningless Week 17 game. The difference this
year is that it is not because the Cowboys have clinched everything.
Regardless, there is no reason to expect the Cowboys to not play
to win. This once great offense has completely fallen apart. The
Cowboys failed to score a single touchdown last week as Prescott
yet again threw for under 200 yards with no touchdowns. Dez Bryant
dropped multiple passes, including one that led to an interception.
He also managed to fumble away one of his three receptions. I
can only hope Bryant is gone next year and with the team no longer
in contention, he will be merely going through the motions on
Sunday. No one on Dallas is capable of getting open and Bryant
can no longer win in one on situations like he used to. Jason
Witten should present a decent PPR floor as he did see nine targets
last week, but this entire offense has a low ceiling. Even against
the Eagles backups, I am not optimistic about a strong finish
for the Cowboys offense.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: That’s not to say I don’t
think the Cowboys win this game. Ezekiel Elliott still has something
to play for personally. Given what he’s had to deal with
this season being suspended and unsuspended numerous times, for
him to still have a shot at a 1,000-yard season and to finish
the season as a fantasy RB1 by total points would be mighty impressive
and the former is certainly on his mind. Elliott returned to a
full workload last week, touching the ball 28 times for a total
of 118 yards. This week should be more of the same and while I
don’t expect Tyron Smith to play, the Cowboys offensive
line should be able to handle the Eagles defensive backups. This
week projects to be very heavy on Zeke to close out the season.
Value Meter:
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (high end)
Bench: All other Cowboys
Passing
Game Thoughts: Doug Pederson hasn’t openly stated
he is going to rest his starters, but…he’s going to
rest his starters. The first unit will likely play the opening
series or two before giving way to the backups. That makes Nick
Foles, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor all unstartable.
Given the uncertainty regarding playing time, gambling on specific
backups like Torrey Smith or Mack Hollins is simply not something
you can do. The only player on this passing attack you can confidently
start is actually Trey Burton. He is a high level talent that
has thrived in a starting role at every opportunity. Burton will
be starting for someone in 2018 and will receive one last chance
to showcase his skills in this glorified exhibition.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles running game couldn’t
be relied on when we knew who was playing and how much. With a
three headed monster, the Eagles can’t rest all of Jay Ajayi,
LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement. Will Wendell Smallwood be
active? Kenjon Barner? It’s hard to say. If they are active,
do we have any interest in them running behind a backup offensive
line against a Cowboys defense that has a healthy Sean Lee? Avoid
all Eagles running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Could this be Kirk Cousins’ last game
as a Redskin? It’s entirely possible. Coming off his best
performance in weeks where he threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns,
Cousins looks to finish the season strong against a division rival
on the road. With so many starters resting for other teams, guys
like Josh Doctson are much more in play this week. On the one
hand, Doctson saw a very encouraging 13 targets last week. Typically,
you want to start receivers that see double digit targets. However,
Doctson somehow only caught two of them. One was in the end zone
so he ended up with a good fantasy line, but a 15% catch rate
is almost unfathomable. Jamison Crowder is probably still the
most reliable option even if he isn’t used as much as fantasy
owners would like. Crowder only saw four targets last week, but
he caught all of them including a touchdown. Vernon Davis is still
the starting TE for this team, but he is useless unless he falls
in the end zone. I would not trust Ryan Grant.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Samaje Perine must lead the NFL in minor
injuries this season. He’s missed snaps with a hand injury,
a concussion scare, and an Achilles injury, but returned each
time. Perine should be good to go this week, but will likely cede
more work to Kapri Bibbs because this game does not matter. The
Redskins seem intent upon having a pass catching back who is not
the same guy they use on first and second downs. So to do that,
they arbitrarily decided that Byron Marshall was that guy before
he got hurt and now it is Bibbs. Neither Perine nor Bibbs will
see enough work or have the touchdown upside to be worth starting.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning is going to start this game.
How much he plays is hard to say. He shouldn’t play much
because it’s pretty obvious Manning has little to nothing
left in the tank. Regardless, it is the job of the Giants front
office to put the best possible team on the field. It is prudent
to see what Davis Webb has to offer as the Giants enter another
offseason with legitimate QB concerns. After scoring zero points
last week, what exactly do they have to gain by watching more
of Eli Manning? The receivers should all play a normal complement
of snaps. Roger Lewis led the team in targets last week with 11,
but Sterling Shepard’s 5-45 line on his eight targets was
the best final line. He is the best WR on this team and the only
one you can trust. He’s missed practice this week due to
neck injury so make sure he’s active before setting your
lineup. Evan Engram bruised his ribs last week and did not return.
I find it hard to believe he plays this week. The Giants have
seen plenty of Engram to know that he is a future elite TE in
this league. They have nothing to gain by forcing him out there
for a meaningless game. Rhett Ellison will takeover as the primary
TE, but will split some time with Jerell Adams. I can’t
imagine you wanting to start either of them.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Despite a lack of a running game for the
Giants, Wayne Gallman does have PPR value, especially if Manning
does play more than he should as all Manning is capable of at
this point in his career is checking it down, which he does often.
Gallman caught six of eight targets last week for 44 yards. He
now has 19 receptions over his past three games. His ceiling is
low, but he’s established quite the PPR floor. He still
loses too many snaps to Orleans Darkwa to be trustworthy, but
Gallman is a legitimate option in a week 17 that will be without
Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell and Kareem Hunt.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor and the Bills have everything
to play for this week with a playoff berth on the line. Taylor
has played two poor games against the Patriots, but otherwise
has had a solid season. He scored both via the air and ground
when the Bills last played the Dolphins two weeks ago. Kelvin
Benjamin will once again serve as the top receiver and is coming
off a solid outing against the Patriots where he caught five of
seven targets for 70 yards. Deonte Thompson has taken over the
number two role, but was not seen at practice Thursday, placing
his status for this Sunday’s game in serious doubt. Charles
Clay actually led the Bills with 10 targets last week, but he
only caught four of them and is nothing more than a warm body
at the TE position. This is a must win for Bills and in week 17,
finding motivated players is almost as important as finding good
players to put in your lineup. You could do worse than some of
these Bills.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: One player
you don’t have to worry about is LeSean McCoy, who is poised
to start all 16 games for just the third time in his career. For
a guy many consider prone to soft tissue injuries, he’s
actually never missed more than four games in a season. Shady
was inefficient, but fantasy successful against the Dolphins two
weeks ago, totaling 96 yards on 25 touches with a score both ways.
His involvement in the passing game has increased over the past
couple weeks, coinciding with the Bills push towards the playoffs.
They need to use all the Shady they can so a monster workload
is to be expected. With multiple top backs not playing this week
or at risk for exiting early, McCoy is one of the best options
at RB in Week 17 with a good matchup playing for a team with every
reason to try hard.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Dolphins have nothing to play for except
to ruin the playoff aspirations of a division rival. Jay Cutler
completely unraveled against the Bills the last time out, throwing
49 times while completing 28 passes to his own team and three
to the other team with no touchdowns. He is not a fantasy option,
but his number one receiver Jarvis Landry always is. If Landry
catches another five balls this week, that will complete a full
season of at least five receptions in every game. Although he’s
been inefficient, he’s been a PPR WR1 this year. He needs
105 yards to reach 1,000 on the year, but he’s already secured
his second career 100-catch season. Landry has yet to top 100
yards in a game, but his season high of 99 came against the Bills.
DeVante Parker saw 10 targets last week, but only caught five
because he is not good at football. Parker is not a fantasy option
and is unlikely to ever be one. Kenny Stills is too inconsistent
to be trusted. I do like Jakeem Grant’s athletic profile,
but his 4-107-1 performance last week is likely just temporary.
The Dolphins should use him more, specifically this week in a
meaningless Week 17 game for them just to see what he can do.
Grant could be like a Tyreek Hill-lite for them. But they probably
won’t so he can be left on the bench.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake no-showed in the fantasy championship
last week with 57 empty yards on the ground and nothing in the
passing game. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t shy away from trusting
Drake’s volume this week. Before last week, he had topped
100 total yards in three straight games, which included the previous
contest against the Bills. Drake’s 13 touches last week
were a season low since Damien Williams went down. Expect that
number to be back over 20 this week.
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