Notes:
- FPTs Allowed data from 2017 season
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Falcons at Eagles
- (Katz) Line: ATL -1.0 Total: 44.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The defending Super Bowl champions project
to have one of the better defenses in the NFL this season, making
this a less than ideal opening salvo for the 2016 MVP. The Eagles
ranked in the middle of the pack in FPts Allowed to QBs despite
seeing the second-most pass attempts (601) in the regular season.
Matt Ryan is coming off an extremely disappointing 2017 campaign
(QB14, 20 TDs) where we saw the Falcons offense regress considerably
following the departure of Kyle Shanahan. While Shanahan isn’t
returning, the offense is due to rebound, which bodes well for
the elite Julio Jones. The perennial all pro somehow scored just
three touchdowns last year despite 19 red zone targets. The arrival
of Alabama rookie, Calvin Ridley, should do nothing to detract
from Julio’s targets and is projected to play roughly half
the snaps on offense. Mohamed Sanu and TE Austin Hooper (Ranked
17th in targets among TEs last season) round out the receiving
group but won’t garner enough attention to be viable options.
In a tough road matchup, though, Julio is the only member of the
Falcons passing attack you can reliably start.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Another victim of the
great 2017 regression was Devonta Freeman. Drafted as a mid RB1,
he finished as the PPR RB13 last year by fantasy points per game
totaling 51 percent of Atlanta’s running back touches. While
Tevin Coleman (41 percent share) still exists, Freeman remains
the primary back in Atlanta and is obviously a must start even
in a difficult matchup. Coleman presents a much trickier decision
as his workload isn’t as secure. We can reasonably assume
10-12 touches and Coleman is always a big play threat, finishing
seventh in breakaway run rate in 2017. If he’s your RB2
or in your flex this week, you can certainly do worse. This is
not a ceiling week for either of the Falcons backs, but you can
confidently deploy Freeman and safely deploy Coleman as normal.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It should come as no surprise that Super
Bowl MVP Nick Foles will open the season as the Eagles starting
quarterback. I expect Foles to start at least the first two or
three games and perhaps at that point we’ll a glimpse of
Carson Wentz. Foles is coming off a phenomenal postseason run
where he didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard with touchdowns
(6), but he protected the football, throwing just one interception,
and completed 72.64% of his passes. Hid previous matchup against
the Falcons landed him a 246-0-0 line. Foles has proven capable
when called upon, but I don’t expect him to be called upon
this week given the receiving corps will be led by Nelson Agholor
and Mike Wallace. The Eagles will try and win this game with ball
control and defense. As the de facto No.1 receiver with Alshon
Jeffery still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, Agholor
is a worthy start based on volume. Wallace, on the other hand,
is very hard to trust as the passing game will funnel through
Zach Ertz. Last year’s TE3 is certainly due for some negative
regression this season, but that doesn’t mean he’s
any less of a top five option. It wouldn’t be a shock to
rookie TE Dallas Goedert to see an increase in expected to targets
given Jeffery’s absence but the rookie also comes with a
low floor.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles had one of
the league’s best rushing attacks in 2017, finishing third
with 132.2 rushing yards per game. Most of that can be attributed
to their elite offensive line. Jay Ajayi was just as mediocre
on the Eagles as he was on the Dolphins – the only difference
being the Eagles offensive line propelled his stats higher. Ajayi
will open the season as the Eagles starting running back, but
what does that really mean? Doug Pederson has always rotated his
backfield and I expect to see plenty of Corey Clement and some
Darren Sproles missed in as well. For the record, LeGarrette Blount
led the Eagles with a 44% market share of RB carries last season
and Ryan Mathews led the club in 2016 with a 41% share - not the
kind of volume based numbers fantasy owners are looking for out
of their RB2. Unless we see a shift in usage, Ajayi should be
good for 10-12 carries and a target or two, but Clement projects
to be the goal line back and primary passing down back, making
Ajayi a very shaky start unless he establishes himself as more
of a workhorse. Ajayi also did not see a single goal line carry
with the Eagles last season and the Falcons gave up a grand total
of 6 rushing TDs and the 6th fewest rushing yards to running backs
last season.
Bills @ Ravens -
(Swanson) Line: BAL -7.5 Total: 40.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Josh Allen era of Buffalo Bills will
have to wait for another week as second-year player Nathan Peterman
was named as the starting quarterback for the Bills against the
Ravens Week 1. Although Allen flashed the big arm and gunslinger
mentality that made him a first-round pick, head coach Sean McDermott
opted to go with Peterman instead of the rookie.
Bills fans hope that Peterman’s first start of the season
goes better than his first career start against the Rams last
season that included five interceptions and only six competitions
in a lopsided defeat.
A lack of receiving options outside of Kelvin Benjamin and Charles
Clay will limit Peterman’s ability to move the ball against
Baltimore, especially if the decimated Bills offensive line is
unable to provide much time to throw. Benjamin looks poised to
a high volume season and should garner a sizable target share
against a Ravens team that will be without starting cornerback
Jimmy Smith, who at 6-foot-2, and 205 pounds, processes the size
to be able to match up against 6-foot-5 Benjamin.
Even without Smith, the Ravens boast a formidable defensive unit
that allowed only six receiving touchdowns all last season while
allowing the second-fewest points to opposing wide receivers.
Like McCoy, Benjamin’s value could be found in garbage time
as the result of a negative game script.
It remains to be seen if the Ravens will continue to struggle
against tight ends, one of the few areas in which teams found
success last year. Baltimore allowed eight receiving touchdowns
to tight ends, compared to just six for wideouts, including a
three-touchdown game by Marcedes Lewis.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy enters the 2018 season with
numerous off and on-field questions that depressed his value from
a consensus second-round pick to a high-risk/high-reward player
often taken as late as the fourth round in 12-team leagues. Domestic
abuse allegations brought forth by a former girlfriend raised
concerns that McCoy may be suspended by the NFL, while concerns
regarding McCoy's age and mileage have made many owners shy away
from Shady.
In addition, McCoy has been limited by a groin injury that forced
the veteran running back to miss game three of the preseason against
Cincinnati and multiple practices. Despite sneaking into the playoffs
last season, the Bills traded quarterback Tyrod Taylor to the
Browns for a third-round pick and three starting offensive linemen,
including left tackle Cordy Glenn, are no longer on the team.
There are more questions than answers with the Bills entering
Week 1 against the Ravens, but there is little doubt that if healthy
and on the roster, McCoy will be a fantasy asset worth starting
based on the massive volume he will receive both the passing and
running game.
Defensively, the Ravens finished 2017 as the No.6 ranked team
against the run after a slow start to the season in which Leonard
Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray, and Jordan Howard
all managed 100 yards and/or a touchdown against the defensive
unit. When back to full health after the midway point of the season
no running back posted a 100-yard game against the Ravens.
A negative game script will likely limit the ability for McCoy
to reach more than 20 carries in the game, as the Baltimore secondary
and defensive line will take advantage of a below-average Buffalo
offensive line and the rookie quarterback. McCoy should make up
for the loss of volume on the ground with more action in the passing
game during garbage time.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Baltimore front office conducted a
full-scale line change of the receiving corps after a disappointing
season in which the Ravens finished 27th in total yards and 29th
in passing offense. Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are gone, former
first-round bust Breshad Perriman lost any chance of starting,
and veteran tight end Ben Watson returned to New Orleans to presumably
close out his career with Drew Brees and the Saints.
As a parting move in his final draft as General Manager, Ozzie
Newsome added tight end Hayden Hurst and quarterback Lamar Jackson
to add some youth to a veteran unit. Michael Crabtree, John Brown
and Willie Snead each signed free-agent deals, giving quarterback
Joe Flacco arguably his best receiving group since the 2012 Super
Bowl winning team.
Crabtree appears primed to be the volume and red zone target
in the unit with Brown acting as the field-stretching big play
option. Snead is a hybrid mix of the two, with an ability to get
behind defenders deep while also working the middle of the field.
The matchup of Brown against veteran Vontae Davis on the outside
is one that could make Brown a sneaky start week one, as Davis
has looked to have lost a step against speedsters. Former Bengal
first-round pick John Ross made Davis and the Buffalo secondary
look silly Week 3 of the preseason and Brown is one of the more
talented deep threats in the AFC.
After finishing 2017 with the fourth-worst defense in the NFL
Buffalo GM Brandon Beane addressed deficiencies on the defensive
line by adding Star Lotulelei and Trent Murphy in free agency
while focusing on linebacker with the selection of Virginia Tech’s
Tremaine Edmunds with the 16th overall pick of the 2018 draft.
Despite these additions, the Bills have looked spotty on defense
in the preseason, allowing the 27th most yards and the ninth-most
points.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: The additions of Lotulelei and Murphy
on the defensive line will be a considerable improvement for a
defensive unit that allowed the most points to opposing running
backs in 2017. With Lotulelei joining Kyle Williams in the middle,
teams will not be able to exploit Buffalo on the ground quite
as much as they did last year, and speedy rookie linebacker Edmunds
should help limit stretch runs outside the tackles.
Alex Collins appears to have a firm grip on the starting running
back job for the Ravens as we enter the season with Buck Allen
working in as a change of pace and receiving back. Collins looks
to build off an impressive stretch run in which he carries the
ball 83 times for 343 yards and three touchdowns in December,
with 14 catches for an additional 135 yards. The Ravens appear
to be the beneficiary of the incompetence of a Seattle Seahawk
front office that failed to realize the talent of Collins when
he was on their roster.
The one trend that continues to be a cause for concern for Collins
owners is red zone usage. Nearly 40% of Allen’s carries
came inside the 20, as head coach John Harbaugh appeared to have
more confidence in Allen in critical game situations. This may
not continue in 2018, but it is something that must be monitored
by Collins owners.
Bengals at Colts
- (Bales) Line: IND -2.5 Total: 48.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton (QB16) struggled a bit last
season, but the addition of left tackle Cordy Glenn and first
round pick Billy Price on the offensive line should help him right
the ship. The matchup against the Indianapolis Colts this week
looks juicy as Indy ranked in the bottom-10 against quarterbacks
last season while allowing the most big plays (20+ yards) in the
league. His top option, AJ Green, as solidified his role as a
WR1 over the last few years. He’ll continue to be peppered
with targets, especially in the red zone, against a weak Indianapolis
secondary.
Tyler Boyd and John Ross are the other two receiving options.
Ross comes with tremendous upside as a deep threat. This is an
interesting matchup for him, as no one in the Colts secondary
has flashed the speed to keep up with Ross. Boyd should play plenty
of snaps in the slot, but it’s difficult to trust him outside
of a dart throw. Tyler Eifert is finally healthy, and he makes
an elite option at tight end. His only struggles throughout his
career have come via injury, but now is the time to take advantage
of his talent until he finds himself on the sideline once again.
He’s expected to play mostly on third downs and in the redzone
which may cap his yardage totals.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon is seemingly the clear-cut number
one option at running back for the Bengals and I expect him to
see the bulk of the backfield touches in Week 1. Gio Bernard played
a major role in the Bengals offense last season, recording double-digit
carries in each of the last five games last season. However, Bernard
is likely nothing more than a third-down back early in 2018. With
that being said, Mixon has also played in the slot during the
preseason, suggesting both of these players will play a major
role in the passing game. The Colts were a decent option to target
in the running game last season (7th most FPts allowed to RBs)
but held Mixon in check on the ground (11-18-0) during a Week
8 meeting in Cincinnati.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck will return to the Colts after
missing last season with a shoulder injury. He gets a tough matchup,
but if he returns to his pre-injury form, Luck will immediately
be a QB1. T.Y. Hilton was a WR1 during Luck’s last healthy
season and most importantly, Hilton is expected to play the majority
of this game against Dre Kirkpatrick, while Ryan Grant matches
up with William Jackson. While Grant loses nearly all of his value
in this matchup, Hilton enters the WR1 fray against Kirkpatrick.
The Colts will be utilizing their tight ends as wide receivers
this season. Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron are both going to play
a major role in the offense. It’s tough to know which tight
end will be more valuable on a week-to-week basis, but Doyle played
significantly more snaps with Luck in the preseason. With that
being said, Ebron was a red zone threat in the preseason and this
offense should be able to support two tight ends due to their
lack of credible outside options.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: It looks as if Marlon Mack (hamstring)
is going to be ruled out this week. If that’s the case,
Jordan Wilkins will draw the start. He’s a bit more of a
power running back, while Nyheim Hines is more of a speedy pass-catching
option but has demonstrated trouble holding onto the ball during
the pre-season. Assuming Mack is out, Wilkins, Hines, and Christine
Michael will all split snaps making it extremely difficult for
fantasy owners. Of the group, Wilkins is the top option, but this
is not a great matchup regardless. This is a situation that likely
should be avoided, as Mack and Robert Turbin (suspended) appear
to be their two best runners but won’t be suiting up.
Texans at Patriots
- (Katz) Line: NE -6.0 Total: 51.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson had a very shaky start
to his career from a real life perspective with his accuracy issues
(64% true completion percentage, 32nd in the league) and ball
security problems (13 interceptable passes in less than half a
season), but from a fantasy perspective, the kid was lightning.
Watson actually threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns against
the Patriots in a shootout last season. While we know Watson has
no hope of repeating his 9.3% touchdown rate, he still possesses
a high floor due to his running ability - averaging just under
40 rushing yards a game last season. He should be in line for
a volume heavy game against the high scoring Patriots which bodes
well not just for Watson, but also for his top target, elite WR
DeAndre Hopkins.
2017’s league leader in touchdowns is poised for another
strong season where Hopkins should once again be amongst the league
leaders in targets. Hopkins will benefit from a full training
camp to work with Watson and is an elite option whenever he takes
the field. Opposite Hopkins is the much more volatile Will Fuller.
Obviously there’s no way Fuller will catch a touchdown on
more than half his receptions from Watson this season, but he’s
always a big play threat and the opponent doesn’t really
matter. If you start Fuller, you are hoping for a splash play.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller has no business still being
a starting running back in the NFL, but when D’Onta Foreman
tore his Achilles, the Texans weren’t left with much of
a choice. Foreman is going to open the season on the PUP list,
which means Miller is locked into considerable volume. As we know,
the single most important factor in fantasy production is volume
and in a projected high scoring affair, Miller should easily surpass
20 touches and likely have an opportunity to score a touchdown.
The only real concern is that the Texans might have the league’s
worst offensive line, but in what will likely be a theme this
season, Miller is a safe, if unspectacular option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Excluding Watson due to an insufficient
sample size, Tom Brady finished as the QB5 last season by FPts/G.
He tailed off considerably down the stretch, but was still a weekly
QB1 option. His best performance of 2017 came against the Texans,
where he threw for 378 yards and five touchdowns. The problem
in 2018 is Brady is another year older and he won’t have
Julian Edelman or Brandin Cooks. Instead, his top options will
be Rob Gronkowski, the most dominant TE of all time, and Chris
Hogan, who has been thrust into the top wide receiver role. Hogan
was well on his way to a breakout season last year until it was
derailed by a shoulder injury. With Edelman suspended, Hogan will
have every opportunity to be a fantasy factor. Brady can typically
support multiple pass catchers, but the guy lining up opposite
Hogan is a bit of an unknown right now. Phillip Dorsett appears
to be the favorite, but perhaps Cordarrelle Patterson emerges
as the second most valuable Patriots receiver however the most
likely scenario is that the running backs pick up the receiving
slack.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Rex Burkhead is going to be the primary
running back for at least the first week of the season. Burkhead
finally got a chance to shine last season and did not disappoint,
rushing for five scores while adding three more through the air
in just 10 games. Burkhead also has to be considered the favorite
for goal line carries. The Patriots did uncharacteristically spend
a first round pick on Sony Michel, but he’s currently recovering
from a knee injury and is unlikely to play. That leaves Burkhead
setup for considerable volume but he won’t be the only back
as James White is going to see the field plenty on passing downs
either in place of Burkhead, or in tandem with him as the pseudo-slot
receiver. White is actually the guy I think benefits most from
the Edelman suspension and it would not shock me to see the Patriots
roll with 22 personnel with Hogan, Gronk, Dwayne Allen, Burkhead,
and White. But, as always, the Patriots remain a bit of an enigma
until we see it.
Jaguars at Giants
- (Katz) Line: JAX -3.0 Total: 42.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Giants do not possess an imposing
pass defense, but that really doesn’t matter much when facing
the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. It simply does not
get worse than Blake Bortles, who has no business being a backup,
let alone a starter. Don’t let the deceptive 21 touchdown
13 interception final line deceive you – Bortles was dreadful
last year. He was 28th in the league with just 3.5 air yards per
attempt. had some of the best receiver play in the league with
Jaguars pass catchers posting the ninth best target separation,
yet Bortles barely completed 60% of his passes. There are only
32 starting QBs, but Bortles managed to finish 33rd in deep ball
completion percentage.
The good news is that even though Bortles is terrible, he can
still support a viable pass catcher or two. The Jaguars top receiver
should be Keelan Cole, who posted 748 receiving yards as a rookie
last season. Cole also could man the slot now that Marqise Lee
(ACL) is done for the season. There was a lot of preseason hype
around Dede Westbrook last season, but he’s best handled
with a wait and see approach this year. Westbrook’s best
ability is stretching the field, which doesn’t fit Bortles’
capabilities.
Another interesting name is offseason signee, Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
The Jaguars lack a true red zone presence and at 6’6, 260
lbs, ASJ could be a touchdown or bust fantasy option. Unfortunately,
he’s dealing with a core injury, but if he plays, he’s
definitely someone worth considering this week as the Giants are
laughably bad at covering the TE giving up the most fantasy points
to the position a year ago.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Even though passing is significantly more
efficient than running, when your quarterback is Blake Bortles,
the best offensive plan is Leonard Fournette. He’s already
established himself as an elite running back and is as good of
a bet for 25-30 touches. If Fournette can stay healthy, he’s
a lock to finish top three in carries and the Jaguars will feed
him the ball as much as he can handle this week. Fournette may
lose some passing down work to T.J. Yeldon, but not all of it
– Fournette is not a pure two-down back. He’s a capable
pass catcher and should be good for a couple of receptions per
game as well as goal line carries. He is locked into starting
lineups everywhere.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You are probably not benching Odell Beckham
Jr., but you can’t be thrilled about starting him against
the best cornerback duo in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye.
Ramsey and Bouye ranked fifth and first in passer rating allowed,
respectively, as well as fourth and seventh in fantasy points
allowed per target last season. Whichever one finds himself facing
off with Beckham, its advantage Jaguar. The Jaguars were the league’s
best defense in 2017 and enter 2018 with that mantle intact.
Eli Manning will have his work cut out for him following a disappointing
year in which he threw for under 3,500 yards and fewer than 20
touchdowns. Obviously the entire Giants offense gets a downgrade
due to matchup, including second year TE, Evan Engram, who is
coming off the second greatest rookie TE season of all time (behind
former Giant, Jeremy Shockey). I am a big Engram fan and think
he’s poised to improve upon his rookie campaign even though
most fantasy analysts are projecting regression due to the return
of a healthy Beckham. Regardless of anyone’s opinion on
Engram, he’s certainly a talented player, but will have
his work cut out for him against the Jaguars. The good news is
that Engram might have to be featured a bit more in this game
as he’s a mismatch against any linebacker with Ramsey and
Bouye locking down Beckham and Sterling Shepard.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: This is my fourth year writing this weekly
column and the first time I get the privilege of saying something
nice about the Giants running game. Saquon Barkley is going to
be a star and if there was one area where the Jaguars struggled
last season, it was against the run. If throwing against Ramsey
and Bouye is a bad idea, the Giants will have no choice but to
try and run the ball and they will do so with Barkley. After spending
the second overall pick on a running back, it is safe to assume
he is locked into a feature role. Barkley didn’t play much
in the preseason due to a hamstring injury, but he’s been
healthy for weeks now and was just held out as a precaution. It
was probably a blessing in disguise. The expected struggles of
the Giants passing game may cap Barkley’s ceiling as scoring
opportunities could be minimal, but Barkley should touch the ball
a minimum of 20 times and will not be coming off the field on
third downs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers appeared to light a fire
under quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with the selection of likely
heir apparent Mason Rudolph in the NFL draft this summer. Instead
of Big Ben embracing Rudolph as his eventual successor, the 15-year
vet appeared to take offense by questioning how the selection
helps the team win now and that Rudolph won’t play for “a
while.”
Big Ben finished last season as the No.9 quarterback in fantasy
points per game based on FFtoday standard scoring, with 28 passing
touchdowns and 14 interceptions to go along with 4251 yards. Although
he technically finished as a QB1, Big Ben proved to be a boom
or bust quarterback as the No.21 ranked QB on our consistency
ranking tool. His ability to produce monster 30-point games, like
his 506-yard, two touchdown game against Baltimore Week 14 makes
him a difference-making player in lineups. But he also failed
to score more than one passing touchdown in a third of his regular
season starts.
Antonio Brown continues to be an elite option after edging out
DeAndre Hopkins for the most fantasy points per game for a wide
receiver (14.8) in 2017. Brown is the closest you can get to a
sure thing, with double-digit performances in nine of 14 games
last year, including 11 catches for 182 against the Browns. In
12 career games against Cleveland, Brown has an astounding 86
catches for 1312 yards and seven touchdowns, the most touchdowns
scored by Brown against any opponent.
JuJu Smith-Schuster proved to be a league-winning late round
pick in his rookie season after finishing 2017 as the No.7 wide
receiver at 10.3 points per game. Although a significant chunk
of his points came when Brown was sidelined, he developed a rapport
with Roethlisberger that should carry over into 2018, making Smith-Schuster
a high-end No.2 wide receiver.
It may surprise some readers to know that despite finishing winless
last year, the Browns actually possessed a decent defensive unit
under Greg Williams. Although Cleveland allowed the sixth-most
points to opposing quarterbacks, they ranked 14th in total yards
allowed and appear to be getting better with the selection of
cornerback Denzel Ward out of Ohio State and with former first
overall pick Miles Garrett healthy.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: For the second consecutive season Le’Veon
Bell did not participate in training camp or the preseason as
Bell and the Steelers front office failed to reach an accord on
a long-term deal. Missing training camp and the preseason for
an elite talent like Bell is not much of a concern, with Bell
proving last season that reps in training camp are not required
to deliver a stud fantasy year. But it did appear that Bell needed
a few weeks in the regular season to get up to game shape, as
evident to his 3.2 yard per carry average over the first two weeks
of the 2017 season.
Unfortunately it appears Bell will need more time to get into
rhythm this season as he has yet to report to the team as of this
writing. In his absence, James Conner is expected to start and
receive the bulk of the workload with Stevan Ridley (yes, he’s
still in the league) working in a backup role. Usage alone makes
Conner a good bet for RB2 value with the potential for more if
he’s able to find the endzone.
As the No. 20 ranked team last season in fantasy points allowed
per game to running backs compared to the No.6 ranked team for
points allowed to wide receivers, the blueprint last season for
opponents was clearly to attack the Browns in the air. Even with
the addition of first-round pick Ward to the secondary, look for
the Steelers to exploit the Browns in the air, especially with
the unproven Conner staring in the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Browns used the first overall pick
in the 2018 NFL draft to select quarterback Baker Mayfield from
the University of Oklahoma. Mayfield is clearly the future of
the franchise and the player who will eventually take over the
starting role from veteran Tyrod Taylor, who was acquired via
trade with the Bills to be the starting QB until Mayfield is ready.
Taylor gives the Cleveland passing offense a calming presence
and an air of confidence after the disappointing rookie season
of DeShone Kizer in 2017. Where Kizer struggled with reading defenses
and limiting mistakes, Taylor takes what the defense gives him
and excels and not making self-inflicted wounds.
Joining Taylor is prized free agent wide receiver Jarvis Landry,
who signed a lucrative long-term deal after four years with the
Dolphins. Although Landry worked primarily in the slot for the
Dolphins and was limited by a reduced route tree in the Adam Gase
offense, Browns offensive coordinator Todd Haley appears to want
Landry to move all around the offense, including outside as the
flanker.
Lining up opposite of Landry is Josh Gordon, an immensely talented
player who missed most training camp due to mental health reasons.
When right, Gordon is one of the most physically gifted receivers
in the league and creates a mismatch will all cornerbacks. The
problem is Gordon has played in only 10 games dating back to his
2013 breakout, with one touchdown and 638 yards in those contests.
It remains to be seen how many targets Gordon will receive as
the likely No.2 target behind Landry, as Gordon was the top dog
during his breakout sophomore campaign.
Second-year tight end David Njoku projects to garner a much larger
target share than the 60 looks he received last year as a rookie.
Like Gordon, Njoku possesses a size and speed combination that
presents a difficult matchup for opposing linebackers, and his
leaping ability will likely be utilized in the red zone.
The Steelers allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards to opposing
quarterbacks last season and appear once again primed to be a
difficult matchup for QBs looking to move the ball in the air.
Although ProFootballFocus ranked the Steeler secondary as the
No.23 unit heading into the season, the pass rush provided by
T.J. Watt, Stephon Tuitt, and Bud Dupree is formidable and could
cause issues for the Browns.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Like Taylor, veteran running back Carlos
Hyde joined the team this offseason to be the starter until his
heir apparent, Nick Chubb, takes over the starting role at tailback.
Numerous injuries and a subpar offensive unit handicapped Hyde
in his four seasons with the 49ers, limiting the former Ohio State
Buckeye to 21 rushing touchdowns in 655 attempts. Not only did
Hyde fail to reach double-digit scores in any of his four seasons
in San Francisco, but he also failed to reach 1000 yards and averaged
a paltry 3.9 yards per carry in 2017.
Hyde appears to be locked and loaded for a heavy first and second
down role to start the season, with Duke Johnson once again working
in as the passing and third down back. Johnson ended last season
on a high note in a Week 16 game against Pittsburgh, with 90 total
yards and a rushing touchdown.
Although the Steelers ranked 6th overall in total defense last
year, running backs found success reaching the end zone down the
stretch, with six rushing touchdowns allowed in the final four
games of the regular season. A healthy Cam Heyward, Tuitt, and
nose tackle Javon Hargrave could spell difficulty for Hyde to
find room up the middle, but an aggressive pass rush from Dupree
and Watt outside could open running lanes on counters and mis-directions.
49ers vs. Vikings
- (Swanson) Line: MIN -6.5 Total: 46.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jimmy Garoppolo has been nothing short
of amazing in his short time as the starting quarterback for the
49ers, winning his first five games as a starter since joining
the team via trade with the Patriots. Garoppolo completed 67%
of his passes for 1560 yards and seven passing touchdowns. Although
he finished as only the 21st ranked quarterback in fantasy points
per game, he should improve on his numbers with a full offseason
to learn Kyle Shanahan’s system and with the return of Pierre
Garcon as a second weapon at the wide receiver position. Jerick
McKinnon looked poised to be a 70-catch running back out of the
backfield for Garoppolo, but an ACL tear during practice this
week will cost the former Viking and high priced free agent acquisition
the entire season.
Unfortunately for those owners who drafted Garoppolo as their
starter, the Week 1 matchup on the road against the Vikings will
prove to be difficult and may result in subpar fantasy numbers
for all 49er offensive weapons. Mike Zimmer’s defense allowed
the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks last season, with no
QB topping more than two passing touchdowns in any game last year.
The Vikings return nearly every starter from the team that ended
2017 as the No.1 ranked unit in fewest yards and points allowed
while improving an already potent defensive line with the addition
of Sheldon Richardson.
Shanahan and Garoppolo will be tested with elaborate blitzes
from both safeties, and the defensive front led by Everson Griffen
will be a formidable task for rookie right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
Finding a weakness in the armor to exploit is not an easy task,
as the Vikings allowed the fewest points to opposing tight ends,
and only one running back managed to score a touchdown via the
air last season. In short, starting a streaming quarterback over
Garoppolo may be a wise move and tempering exceptions for both
Garcon and Goodwin is recommended.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Second-year back Matt Breida is listed
as the starting running back on the team’s official depth
chart with veteran Alfred Morris working in as the change of pace
and power/short yardage back. Breida averaged 5.2 fantasy points
per game as the No. 70 ranked running back last season, working
primarily as Carlos Hyde’s backup and breather back. Although
Breida is listed as the starter, Morris projects to receive a
sizable share of carries on Sunday, making both players marginal
starts in what could be a challenging game for all 49er skill
position players.
The Vikings allowed the fewest points to opposing running backs
last season, with only Jonathan Stewart managing to top 100 yards
and multiple scores. If you take away that flukey game against
the Panthers only five opposing running backs managed to reach
double-digit points in any game last year.
To make matters worse for San Francisco, the Vikings added Sheldon
Richardson via free agency this summer to pair alongside Linval
Joseph in the middle of the defensive line. Running between the
tackles will be difficult for Breida and Morris, and the run support
provided by pro bowl safeties Andrew Sendejo and Harrison Smith
will make it difficult to run outside. In short, it may be a smart
move avoiding all San Francisco running back options this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to a lucrative
offseason free-agent contract to help an already talented offensive
team get over the hump and make a run for a Lombardi Trophy. Minnesota
ranked 11th in the NFL in passing yards and 10th in passing touchdowns
last year with Case Keenum under center and project to be an even
more potent passing attack with Cousins.
The tandem of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen propelled the Viking
wide receiving corps to a 13th place finish among average points
scored by a wide receiving group. Diggs finished .a tenth of a
point per game behind Michael Thomas and A.J. Green for the 12th
spot based on FFToday Standard scoring parameters, while Thielen
finished as the No.15 ranked WR with 91 catches for 1277 years
and four receiving touchdowns.
The distribution of targets will undoubtedly be different with
Cousins running the offense and Pat Shurmur no longer calling
plays in Minnesota. Cousins has a history of heavily targeting
tight ends, which could hurt Theilen’s overall value and
improve the fantasy stock of Kyle Rudolph. Based on the impressive
preseason stat line of seven catches for 86 lads and a score that
Diggs received in limited action with Cousins, it appears that
Diggs will be peppered with targets to start the season.
Regardless of who receives the most targets on Sunday, it is
safe to say that Cousins and the skill position players for the
Vikings are licking their chops for their matchup against a 49ers
secondary and linebacking corps that allowed the 5th most points
to opposing quarterbacks last year. Although John Lynch and the
49er front office made a splash with the addition of veteran cornerback
Richard Sherman, the San Francisco secondary is very young outside
of Sherman, and lack playmaking defensive backs. Cousins and the
Vikings should find little issues moving the ball against the
49ers, especially if the Minnesota defense is able to provide
short fields off of turnovers.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: This matchup
is a tale of two defenses in what could be a lopsided win for
the Vikings. Unlike the Vikings who rank near the top in allowing
the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers, and
running backs, the 49ers gave up points by the buckets last season
across the board. 12 different tailbacks managed to post double-digit
performances against Robert Saleh’s defensive front, highlighted
by Ezekiel Elliott’s monster 40-point game Week 7 at Levi
Stadium.
The young San Francisco defensive front of Arik Armstead, DeForest
Buckner, and Solomon Thomas projects to be an impressive unit
in the next few seasons. But as it stands the trio is still young
and developing, and the linebacking corps led by middle linebacker
Brock Coyle is less than impressive.
Second-year back Dalvin Cook and veteran bruiser Latavius Murray
should find little trouble moving the ball vs. San Francisco.
Cook will make his first regular season start after sustaining
an ACL Week 4 against Detroit. Prior to the devastating knee injury,
Cook was on pace to finish as the No.9 running back with 14.1
points per game, just behind Melvin Gordon and Alvin Kamara.
Owners who used a first or second-round pick on Cook will no
doubt start the former Florida State Seminole, but expectations
should be tempered somewhat as a negative game script with the
Vikings blowing out the 49ers could limit his workload. And it
is possible that Mike Zimmer and the coaching staff will ease
their star RB back into action over the first few games of the
season.
Bucs at Saints
- (Bales) Line: NO -9.5 Total: 49.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston has been suspended to start
the season, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will draw the start at quarterback.
Fitzpatrick’s top option, Mike Evans, gets a tough matchup
against Marshon Lattimore this week. In two matchups against Lattimore
last season, Evans totaled only six receptions for 68 yards. He’s
an inefficient player that dominates with his target share (22.8%)
and red zone presence. Overall, his matchup knocks him down a
peg, but his nearly guaranteed 8+ targets adds to his value.
DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are in a bit of an odd position,
as they are seen as co-starters, although neither generally plays
the slot. They are expected to split snaps, although both come
with quite a bit of upside. Of the two, Godwin’s appears
to have the higher ceiling after receiving rave reviews throughout
the offseason, although Jackson’s speed could help him take
the top off of the defense. With all three receivers referred
to as “starters” during the off-season it’s
difficult to project how usage will shake out.
Tight ends Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard are also splitting snaps.
Howard is more of the blocking tight end, while Brate is the receiving
option, although Howard has proven plenty of big play ability.
New Orleans allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to tight ends
last season making this an un favorable matchup for Howard and
Brate.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: There is only one running back to truly
consider from the Buccaneers at this point in the season - Peyton
Barber. Barber averaged 18 touches per game over the last five
games last season and has been named the clear-cut number one
option for Tampa Bay this season. Ronald Jones, who was an early
second round pick for the Bucs, struggled in preseason and is
listed as the third string running back for the opener. The only
running back that may steal touches from Barber is Jacquizz Rodgers,
although it’s highly unlikely he plays more than a handful
of snaps.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been an elite fantasy option
for years and despite a down statistical season in 2017, he has
shown no signs of deteriorating skills. There are a lot of mouths
to feed in New Orleans, and without Mark Ingram in the backfield,
Brees could see a few extra pass attempts this week. New Orleans
will have 71 targets to replace with Mark Ingram suspended. Michael
Thomas has been his WR1 since entering the league, and he should
be locked into 8+ targets. Alvin Kamara is the only other player
to return with 100+ targets from last season, but we’ll
discuss him below.
Ted Ginn Jr (WR34) quietly posted solid numbers last season,
but will see competition from Cam Meredith, rookie Tre’Quan
Smith, and tight end Ben Watson. Ginn is the most likely player
to repeat his success, although Meredith is tentatively expected
to slide into a starting role once he’s fully recovered
from his ACL injury. Smith is on the outside looking in, but has
looked outstanding during the preseason. Overall, Ginn is a high
upside option, while Watson features a relatively high floor.
These wide receivers should find plenty of success against Tampa
Bay’s bottom-five ranked defense against receivers.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints are only carrying two running
backs on their roster at the moment. As mentioned above, Mark
Ingram is suspended, leaving Alvin Kamara and Mike Gillislee to
handle the rushing duties. Gillislee was recently signed, suggesting
he could see somewhat of a limited role this week. Kamara, on
the other hand, featured elite efficiency last season (12.6 touches
per game, 1554 combined yards, 13 TDs) and will see a significantly
bigger role this week. The Saints could find themselves up early
in this game, giving Kamara and Gillislee plenty of carries against
the Bucs, who featured one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL
last season allowing the 6th most fantasy points to running backs.
Titans at Dolphins
- (Katz) Line: TEN -1.0 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Titans passing attack can’t
be worse than it was last season with Mike Mularkey’s awful
“exotic smash mouth” game plan. Marcus Mariota excels
when the defense is spread out and he can get rid of the ball
quickly. The Titans literally did the exact opposite with him
last year. Mariota was better than the numbers indicate. He made
his fair share of inaccurate throws and bad decisions, but he
was the unluckiest quarterback in the league.
He enters 2018 with a healthy Corey Davis, who has every opportunity
to breakout this season. I’m not entirely sure he will,
but if he doesn’t, it will likely be his own fault. He doesn’t
have the easiest opening matchup against Xavien Howard so Rishard
Matthews might once again be the most valuable Titans WR. Matthews
played in 14 games last season and saw at least seven targets
in six of them. He’s a floor play, but he won’t get
you zero. Taywan Taylor projects to be the primary slot receiver,
but you shouldn’t need to dig that deep in Week 1.
Mariota’s primary target, however, will remain Delanie
Walker. The veteran TE has been nursing a toe injury, but has
declared himself ready to go and I believe the man. I am a bit
concerned Walker may start to break down this season, but this
week, Walker will be his usual self.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: The Titans backfield is going to be a
near even split between Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. The better
weekly play will depend a lot on game script. Lewis comes with
a higher floor because he’s a satellite back that has proven
capable of running between the tackles and handling goal line
carries. While Henry can certainly do both of those things, he
cannot catch passes like Lewis. The good news for Henry owners
is this game should trend to his game script allowing him to lead
this backfield in snaps and is a good bet for a touchdown. Lewis
is still going to see the field plenty in what should be a competitive
contest, making both backs worthy Week 1 starts.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After missing all of last season with
a torn ACL, Ryan Tannehill is back under center for the Dolphins
and being treated as somewhat of a savior. The Dolphins got rid
of QB Jay Cutler and their leading receiver, Jarvis Landry, replacing
the wideout with Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. Currently,
Amendola is the favorite for slot duties with Kenny Stills lining
up out wide. That other flanker spot would’ve gone to DeVante
Parker, but he’s out with a hand injury. Adam Gase has mentioned
the possibility of putting Wilson out wide but any way you slice
it, the Dolphins WR situation is very much in flux at the moment,
making all of them risky fantasy options. Rookie TE Mike Gesicki
has looked great in shorts and a t-shirt, but it hasn’t
translated into production with the pads on. There may be value
in this passing game, but right now, we have no idea where it
is.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake was a revelation last season,
but it was a bit of an accident that we even got to see it. Jay
Ajayi entered the year as the starter, but the Dolphins smartly
rid themselves of the worst RB on their roster. Damien Williams
took over as the starter, but he got hurt, paving the way for
Drake to stake his claim to the starting job.
Drake is the clear starter entering this season, but is not without
his set of concerns. Drake was never a primary back in college
and did not project as one in the NFL. He certainly played well
last year as evidenced by his 6.8% breakaway run rate, fifth in
the league, and 30.9% juke rate, seventh in the league, and I
believe the talent is real, but with 87 year-old Frank Gore around
and rookie Kalen Ballage also in the mix for touches, it remains
to be seen what level of volume Drake is looking at. I am certainly
more bullish than bearish on Drake though.
Chiefs at Chargers
- (Caron) Line: LAC -3.5 Total: 48.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The new-look Chiefs offense under quarterback
Patrick Mahomes makes its debut in Week 1 on the road in what
looks like a very tough matchup against an excellent Chargers
defense. Los Angeles possesses one of the best secondaries in
the league along with some of the league’s top pass rushers,
which could spell trouble for a gunslinger like Mahomes who is
known to let the ball rip even in bad situations. Wide receiver
Tyreek Hill is one of the few players in the league who is capable
of beating this secondary deep, which is how he scored in each
of his two games against the Chargers in 2017. Banking on a deep
touchdown is always a risky proposition, but Hill is the best
bet to do that of any player in the NFL. Sammy Watkins is a player
who should probably be on fantasy benches as he’ll have
tough matchups no matter where he’s lined up on the field
and will be the second or third option on most plays anyway. Tight
end Travis Kelce is a must-start in seasonal leagues in any matchup
but it’s worth noting that the Chargers did keep him in
check in 2017 (7-47-0).
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: While the Los Angeles
defense is a great unit overall, one player who they simply could
not contain in 2017 was Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt.
Hunt punished the Chargers with two monster performances that
including 327 total rushing yards, 62 receiving yards and three
total touchdowns. Certainly we shouldn’t be expecting that
type of output again, but Hunt is a better option than the on-paper
matchup indicates.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Quiet and consistent, Philip Rivers continues
to be a borderline QB1 for fantasy purposes, but his individual
upside remains limited due to his immobility. While he’s
done well in most matchups, he has actually struggled against
the Chiefs recently, including throwing for just two total touchdowns
in his past three games, along with three interceptions. That’s
not a large enough sample size to completely dissuade us from
starting Rivers, but it’s certainly possible that the Chiefs
defense simply has him figured out.
The Chiefs defensive unit is depleted from where it was at a season
ago, however, and now safety Eric Berry is dealing with a foot
injury that could keep him out of the game. That would be ideal
for tight ends Virgil Green and the newly re-signed Antonio Gates,
but there’s a good chance that Gates will play primarily
in the red zone, thus limiting the true upside of both tight ends
even in what should be a good matchup. Wide receiver Keenan Allen
remains a strong play and while he struggled against Kansas City
a season ago, we should expect him to continue to be peppered
with targets. Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams are both potential
deep fantasy starters, but neither should be started in normal
leagues until we see how the Los Angeles offense will utilize
them.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers did not perform
well offensively against the Chiefs a season ago, but fantasy
owners of Melvin Gordon don’t care as their bellcow running
back produced three touchdowns in those two games, including 70-or-more
rushing yards in both contests as well as a 91-yard receiving
day. Gordon also scored a pair of touchdowns when these teams
played back in Week 1 of the 2016 season, so there’s a track
record of him getting into the end zone against this defense.
Gordon is in line to see a high number of touches in Week 1 and
should be a solid RB1 for fantasy.
Cowboys at Panthers
- (Bales) Line: CAR -3.0 Total: 42.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott gets a great matchup against
Carolina, who struggled against quarterbacks last season. With
that being said, he has very few viable receiving options. Allen
Hurns is arguably the most talented wide receiver for the Cowboys,
while Cole Beasley, Michael Gallup, and Terrance Williams will
all see snaps. Hurns and Beasley are the safest options, while
Gallup comes with some upside if he’s used around the goaline
as projected. Generally, these wide receivers shouldn’t
be considered.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott gets a tough matchup against
Carolina, who featured one of the best run defenses in the NFL
last season, allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to RBs. With
that being said, Elliott will see more than enough touches to
be an elite option. He’s also expected to contribute in
the passing game more this season. The only concern here is both
teams tend to play at a slow pace which could cap the upside of
all skill players involved. Rod Smith is the backup to Zeke and
should see an expanded role this season but not enough to knock
Zeke off his three-down workhorse role. It would be shocking to
see anyone outside of Elliott and Prescott contributes in a major
way in the rushing game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton and company get a matchup against
an average Dallas pass defense this week. He makes a QB1 option
on a weekly basis because of his rushing potential but lacks the
passing skills to routinely post high yardage totals. Newton last
faced the Cowboys in 2015 posting a below average 16-27, 183-0-0
passing line but did rush 12 times for 45 yards and a score.
His top option throughout his career has been Greg Olsen, who
is finally healthy and has a decent matchup against a Cowboys
defense that likes to funnel targets to the middle of the field.
Olsen (toe) only played a handful of games as a healthy body last
season, and he’ll return to a high-end TE1.
Devin Funchess is the clear-cut top receiver for Carolina. Dallas
struggled against wide receivers last season, ranking as a bottom-10
defense in fantasy points allowed to the position. Funchess has
flashed upside, and that should continue into the beginning of
2018. D.J. Moore and Torrey Smith are two more options that could
command targets, although they are not likely to play prominent
roles in this game. Smith will take over the deep threat role
left by Ted Ginn Jr while Moore will be rotating snaps with slot
man Jarius Wright.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey played nearly every
first-team snap in the preseason and appears locked into a workhorse
role, even with C.J. Anderson on the team. The biggest surprise
for CMC is that he was taking goal line carries instead of Cam
Newton during the preseason. While protecting Newton is a smart
team move, it’s something Newton owners should keep an eye
one. McCaffrey also adds plenty of receiving potential to his
game (80-651-5 last season) and should be a PPR monster in 2018.
The Cowboys allowed the fourth most receptions to running backs
last season making it difficult not to be excited about his Week
1 matchup. It’s impossible to trust Anderson in this game
after seeing him play almost exclusively with the third string
in preseason. Newton and McCaffrey are the two players that should
account for the majority of Carolina’s rushing stats.
Seahawks at Broncos
- (Caron) Line: DEN -3.0 Total: 42.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The top fantasy quarterback in 2017, Russell
Wilson returns in what is likely a worse situation than he had
a season ago, but still one that he should produce fantasy points
within. Wilson’s ability to make plays with his legs gives
him a floor that few fantasy players can provide, and it’s
why we shouldn’t be overly concerned that Doug Baldwin (knee)
might be limited in the early parts of the season. We do expect
Baldwin to play, but how much he’ll play and how effective
he’ll be is the question. The Broncos secondary is a tough
one to begin with and being limited only makes Baldwin even more
risky. One player to look at in deep leagues is Tyler Lockett,
who could end up leading the team in targets in Week 1, depending
on Baldwin’s health. Lockett is a speedster who can go deep
on any play, so taking a shot on him in DFS might not be the worst
option. Brandon Marshall is the only other fantasy-relevant receiver
in this offense at the moment, but let’s see how much he
plays before we put him in our fantasy lineups.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The Seattle running game
is simply not an ideal situation for fantasy. With the team naming
Chris Carson as the starter after drafting Rashaad Penny in the
first round of this year’s NFL Draft, it doesn’t appear
Seattle has a great grip on their own talent. Not to mention the
Seattle offensive line has been notoriously terrible for a few
seasons now and that didn’t change over the offseason as
they’re still expected to be one of the worst units in the
league. The other concern is that C.J. Prosise is likely to be
involved to some extent as a pass catcher, which again limits
an already low upside in the Seattle backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Broncos have been searching for their
Peyton Manning replacement and while Case Keenum isn’t the
answer, but it’s also pretty tough for him to be worse than
what the Broncos have been trotting onto the field over the past
few seasons. Keenum comes from Minnesota where he did a great
job getting the ball to his top two receivers, Adam Thielen and
Stefon Diggs, and will likely key in on his top two options in
Denver - Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders - which is great
news for fantasy owners. The Broncos don’t have much to
speak of at tight end at the moment and rookie Courtland Sutton
still needs time to develop, so the Broncos’ target hogs
should continue to feast early this season, especially in what
is now a surprisingly good matchup against a weakened Seahawks
secondary.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: After months of coachspeak,
the Broncos finally made it official that rookie running back
Royce Freeman will start in Week 1 over Devontae Booker. Freeman
was one of the top prospects at the position in the draft and
landed in a running back-needy offense where he should see plenty
of work. C.J. Anderson was quietly productive in Denver a season
ago and Freeman should be in line to pick up where Anderson left
off, and then some. The Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks is
historically a tough one, but it might not be nearly as difficult
now that the defense has seen so many top talents leave. Freeman
is a solid RB2 with upside in Week 1.
Redskins at Cardinals
- (Caron) Line: ARI -1.5 Total: 43.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: New Redskins quarterback Alex Smith might
not have the huge contract of Kirk Cousins, but there’s
no guarantee that he’ll be a worse QB for this Washington
offense either. In fact, Smith’s safe-but-steady passing
game might actually benefit an offense that features Jamison Crowder
in the slot. Crowder was one of the hottest fantasy names in recent
years but he’s cooled off significantly after a disappointing
2017 season, but we’re already hearing reports that he’s
clicking with Smith, which should be of no surprise to those who
know how Smith operates.
Outside receivers Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson might not be
as lucky, however, as Smith will likely take fewer shots downfield
than Cousins did, especially in Week 1 with Patrick Peterson at
cornerback. We don’t yet know which receiver - if any -
Peterson will be shadowing, but it almost certainly won’t
be Crowder. That, combined with his likely high target share,
makes him a viable low-end WR2 in PPR formats. Tight end Jordan
Reed has been limited in practice but is expected to play and
could do some serious damage against in any matchup. He’s
a TE1 as long as he’s on the field.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: The injury to Derrius
Guice was a crippling one for many fantasy owners, but it was
horrifying for the Redskins offense who are now left with the
likes of Samaje Perine, Rob Kelley and the ghost of Adrian Peterson
as their primary ball carriers. Peterson is expected to get the
biggest share of the touches in Week 1, but who really knows how
productive he’ll be? He’s been awful on a per-touch
basis for the past two seasons and if he’s not getting 20-or-more
carries, it’s hard to believe that he’ll even have
a chance of sniffing 100 yards on the ground. The player to target
in this backfield is Chris Thompson (leg), who is himself banged
up, but provides the upside to potentially be an RB1 in PPR formats.
Thompson is an elite pass catcher and playmaker and could end
up leading the backfield in snaps this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford will start for the Cardinals
in Week 1 and while he is not a great fantasy option for a multitude
of reasons, including his high potential to be knocked out of
games, he does bring some consistency in what could be a tough
offensive situation. The Cardinals offensive line is still struggling
which means the team will almost certainly need to get the ball
in and out of their quarterback’s hand quickly. That plays
right into Bradford’s skill set, and particularly benefits
wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald who is coming off of three straight
100-reception seasons and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Fitzgerald is a PPR monster out of the slot and is almost certainly
a must-start in all formats, but the other options in Arizona
are a huge question mark. Rookie wide receiver Christian Kirk
is likely the next most-likely wide receiver to have a big game,
but he is unlikely to play a high enough number of snaps to warrant
a large target share. Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones is an interesting
option in Week 1 for those desperate at the position as he’s
expected to start and play significant snaps, but he’s also
a risky play as we haven’t seen him perform at any sort
of a consistent basis yet in his career.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: We never like to see players
miss significant playing time with injuries, but there are actually
some positives for fantasy purposes regarding David Johnson’s
2017 wrist injury. Johnson has had almost an entire calendar year
to recover from an injury that he probably could have come back
from within three months, but it’s also an injury that doesn’t
really affect running backs all that much. As such, Johnson essentially
saved himself from taking any wear and tear for an entire season
and is now fully rejuvenated heading into 2018. Johnson is obviously
an elite talent, so he’s someone who you’re not going
to want to bench really in any matchup, but the offensive line
concerns have to be something to consider in DFS. Still, Johnson
offers enough upside in the passing game to make up for poor rushing
performances, so he’s about as safe as you can get at the
position.
Chicago @ Green
Bay - (Swanson) Line: GB -7.0 Total: 47.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chicago front office made a big splash
this offseason by replacing old school coach John Fox with a brilliant,
offensive-minded coach in Matt Nagy. A former offensive coordinator
under Andy Reid, Nagy will likely transform the Bears offense
from a simplistic run-first unit to a multi-dimensional offense
based on creating and exploiting matchups.
In addition to the hiring of Nagy, the Bears signed Allen Robinson
and Trey Burton to lucrative long-term deals, while adding talented
rookie wide receiver Anthony Miller in the draft. Those three
additions, along with free agent WR Taylor Gabriel, give second-year
quarterback Mitchell Trubisky more than enough firepower to compete
for the NFC North title.
The question facing Chicago is will Trubisky take that next step
in his development and build upon an up and down rookie campaign.
The former first round pick out of the University of North Carolina
threw for 2193 yards, with seven interceptions and seven touchdowns
in 12 starts in 2017. Trubkisy has the physical tools to be a
star in the league, but time will tell how he fits into Nagy’s
complex offensive scheme.
Making things difficult for Trubisky will be a Packers defense
that reloaded with four defensive players in the first five rounds
of the draft, including cornerback Jaire Alexander from Louisville,
widely considered one of the most talented defensive backs in
the 2018 draft class. The Packers also selected linebacker Oren
Burks from Vanderbilt, who will likely start in the place of injured
starter Jake Ryan.
Veteran cornerback Tramon Williams is set to start at corner
opposite of Kevin King, but Alexander and Josh Jackson continue
to impress and could see the field sooner rather than later.
An interesting matchup to watch in this game will be Burks matched
up against Burton. Nagy’s offense in the past has relied
heavily on the tight end, and I anticipate that he will look to
take advantage of a rookie playing in his first game.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Rumors floated around the fantasy community
this summer speculating that running back Jordan Howard was a
poor fit in Matt Nagy’s system and that the team may look
to trade or even cut their starting tailback. Those rumors proved
to be nothing more than echo chamber nonsense, and Howard has
repeatedly been given the support by Nagy and the coaching staff.
The former fifth-round pick out of the University of Indiana
followed up his stellar rookie season with a solid sophomore campaign
with 1120 rushing yards and nine touchdowns to finish as the No.13
ranked RB in fantasy points per game. Although he was not the
most consistent player for fantasy owners with half of his games
resulting in fewer than 10 fantasy points, the new offense under
Matt Nagy should reduce the number of stacked boxes and will give
Howard more running room between the tackles.
Takin Cohen projects to once again work in as the passing down
back in the offense, but don’t be surprised to see Howard
receive more targets than last season. Look for Cohen to be lined
up all over the field as Nagy uses Cohen’s speed and elusiveness
similar to how Tyreek Hill was used in 2017. But the primary back
to own in Chicago is Howard regardless of format, with the high
probability of Howard ending the season as an RB1.
Despite to favorable season outlook, both Cohen and Howard will
likely find it difficult to move the ball Week 1 against a Green
Bay defense that was surprisingly strong against the run last
season. Led by talent run stopper Mike Daniels, Green Bay allowed
only three rushing touchdowns in the final seven weeks of the
season. The addition of Muhammad Wilkerson to the starting line
will improve the unit’s run stopping ability. However, the
loss of starting linebacker Jake Ryan to a season-ending knee
injury was a big knock to the Packer linebacking corps.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Once again Aaron Rodgers enters the season
as the consensus No.1 ranked quarterback. Although favorite target
Jordy Nelson was released this past offseason and signed with
Oakland, the Packers gave Rodgers a deadly red zone weapon in
tight end Jimmy Graham to go along wide top wide receiver Davante
Adams.
No other quarterback over the past five seasons targets wide
receivers more in the red zone than Rodgers, and Graham and Adams
finished 2017 as the two most targeted red zone players in the
league. It is safe to assume that both players will once again
be heavily targeted by Rodgers within the 20, especially if the
Green Bay ground game struggles again this year.
The opening week matchup against the Bears changed drastically
for Rodgers and the Packers with the shocking trade of elite pass
rush linebacker Khalil Mack by the Bears and Raiders. The No.7
ranked Bears defense was already a formidable unit prior to the
addition of Mack, but now Chicago could compete with Jacksonville,
Philadelphia, and Los Angeles for the top front seven in football.
The matchup of Mack against left tackle David Bakhtiari will
be critical for the success of the Packer passing attack, as Bakhtiari
is one of the highest rated tackles according to ProFootballFocus
and Mack is arguably the most feared pass rusher in the league.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Williams
gets the first crack as the starting tailback for the Packers
after Aaron Jones was handed a two-game suspension for violating
the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Williams rushed for 556
years and four touchdowns in 14 games last season, adding 262
yards and a pair of scores through the air. The former BYU standout
proved to be a valuable fantasy asset down the stretch of the
2017 regular season with four double-digit fantasy performances
in the final six games.
Versatile former wide receiver Ty Montgomery will also be in
the mix at tailback, as his superior pass-catching skills make
him a trusted option for Rodgers out of the backfield. Montgomery
suffered a foot injury against the Raiders in the preseason but
appears ready to contribute Week 1.
The Bears allowed the seventh-fewest points to opposing running
backs last season, with only Latavius Murray managing to reach
the century mark on the ground Week 17. Although the Bears surrendered
10 rushing touchdowns on the year, only four tailbacks reached
double-digit fantasy points against Vic Fangio’s unit. Williams
owners should not expect a massive yardage game against the Bears
on Sunday night, but a receiving touchdown from Rodgers could
be in the mix.
New York Jets
@ Lions - (Swanson) Line: DET -6.5 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The future is now for Sam Darnold and
the Jets, as head coach Todd Bowles announced that the first round
selection from USC proved enough in the preseason to earn a starting
nod against the Lions. Darnold completed 64% of his passes this
summer, with two touchdowns and one interception for a QB rating
of 83.9. At times the rookie looked his age with a few questionable
throws and decisions, but overall he looked poised in the pocket
and ready to assume the starting gig.
Robby Anderson will be the No.1 receiver outside for Darnold
after a breakout sophomore season in which the former Temple Owl
catch 63 passes for 941 yards and seven touchdowns. Assuming Anderson
does not miss too much time from a pending investigation by the
NFL for personal conduct violations, a similar stat line in 2018
is well within the realm of possible outcomes. Anderson’s
matchup against cornerback Darius Slay, especially on deep routes,
will be a critical aspect of the game for the Jets.
An abdominal injury will most likely keep veteran Jermaine Kearse
from playing opposite of Anderson on Monday night, opening the
door for Quincy Enunwa and Terrelle Pryor to see action. Enunwa
returns to the field after missing 2017 with a neck injury, while
Pryor signed a one-year “show me” deal with the Jets
with the hope of returning to his 1k season with the Browns in
2016.
The addition of former Patriot defensive coordinator Matt Patricia
as the new head coach of the Lions should help improved a team
that finished last season as the 27th ranked defense in yards
per game. The Lions allowed the 12th most points despite forcing
the fourth-most interceptions (19). A key to the Lions defense
will be the run stopping ability of Ricky Jean-Francois and Sylvester
Williams in the middle of the defensive line, and the development
of second-year linebacker Jarrad Davis.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: The Jets signed free Isaiah Crowell to
a three-year $12 million contract over the offseason to presumably
take over the starting tailback role. The contract was somewhat
of a head-scratcher based on the fact that Crowell never reached
1000 yards or double-digit touchdowns in his four seasons with
the Browns, while incumbent veteran Bilal Powell continues to
produce at a high level.
Look for Crowell to get the first crack at early down work on
Monday against the Lions with Powell getting passing down and
change of pace. Although Crow is listed as the starter on the
unofficial team depth chart, Powell will be more active than Crowell
owners will like and could marginalize both players to nothing
more than flex plays.
Based on last year’s stats, beating the Lions on the ground
proved to be the best course of action for opposing offenses.
Detroit allowed the third-most points on the ground to running
backs, with only the Bills and the Rams allowing more fantasy
points to RBs. It would also make sense for Bowles and the Jets
coaching staff to try to lean on the run to help limit the exposure
in the passing game to their rookie quarterback while keeping
the ball out of the hand of Matthew Stafford.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford threw for 4,446 yards
as the No.10 ranked fantasy quarterback in 2017, with 29 touchdowns
and 10 interceptions. Not only did Stafford finish as a QB1, he
provided a solid floor with 16 games of at least 10 fantasy points
while managing to throw at least one touchdown in all but two
games. As evidence to a shift in the offensive scheme and their
desire to run the ball more, the former first overall pick in
the 2009 NFL draft threw for a career-low 565 attempts in 2017
and failed to score a rushing touchdown for only the second season
of his nine-year NFL career.
Although he is no longer the flashy player that stormed only
to the scene with 41 passing touchdowns in 2011, Stafford is a
more than adequate QB1, and he will not burn you with excessive
turnovers and poor decisions. Stafford also is the beneficiary
of a wide receiving corps filled with a collection of field-stretching
studs and a possession receiver he can count on. The wide receiving
group of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay scored
the second most fantasy points last season, second only to Antonio
Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster in Pittsburgh.
The Jets defense ranked 10th in points allowed to both wide receivers
and running backs last season and should be a unit that Stafford
and the receiving weapons in Detroit can exploit on Monday Night.
It should also be noted that New York was terrible against pass-catching
running backs by allowing the second-most receiving touchdowns
in 2017 to RBs. Look for offensive coordinator JimBob Cooter to
design plays in the passing game for Theo Riddick to exploit this
weakness of the Jets, making Riddick a sneaky flex play in deep
leagues.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Of the many running back by committee
backfields littering the NFL in 2018, the LeGarrette Blount, Ameer
Abdullah, Theo Riddick, and Kerryon Johnson logjam in Detroit
may be the most difficult to project. The Lions signed Blount
to a one-year $2 million contract to be the bruising back in the
offense, only to then trade up in the second round to select Auburn
RB Johnson. To make matters worse, the team opted to keep Abdullah
on the roster to the chagrin of many Johnson owners, further clouding
the outlook for RB carry distribution.
Although we don’t have a clear idea of how carries will
be distributed, we do know that a home matchup against a Jets
team that allowed the 8th most points to opposing running backs
last season, including big games to Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara,
and Dion Lewis in the final three games of the year.
Look for Blount to get the start and work with on the first few
series as the first and second down back, while Riddick works
in on third and passing downs. If the Lions pull ahead, don’t
be surprised to see Johnson get more work that Blount in the second
half as the team will take advantage of the opportunity to give
their prized rookie touches.
Rams at Raiders
- (Caron) Line: LAR -4.0 Total: 48.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Sean McVay offense turned Jared Goff
from being a laughing stock to a viable fantasy quarterback in
2017, and there’s little reason to believe that it won’t
continue to be successful in 2018. Goff finds himself having mostly
the same weapons, with the exception of a big of an upgrade at
wide receiver as Brandin Cooks has replaced Sammy Watkins. Cooks
brings big play upside as a complement to possession style receivers
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, but all three players have fantasy
viability on a weekly basis. The Raiders secondary is rather weak,
so there should be plenty of opportunities for Goff to make them
pay.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: The 2017 fantasy MVP returns
this season in what is expected to be another great offensive
situation. Todd Gurley silenced the haters in punishing fashion
last year on his way to be being a top 4 selection in most fantasy
drafts this summer. Gurley’s touchdown total (19) will be
almost impossible to replicate, but his overall usage makes him
an extremely safe option with extraordinary upside. Gurley is
perhaps the best play on the entire board here in Week 1 as he
matches up against a depleted Oakland defense that will now be
without Khalil Mack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: New head coach Jon Gruden has had nothing
but praise for Derek Carr this offseason, which is good to hear
considering that Carr was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments
of the 2017 season. Carr will also now be without one of his favorite
targets, Michael Crabtree, who has been replaced by an aging Jordy
Nelson who was unsuccessful without Aaron Rodgers last season.
The one constant in this offense seems to be Amari Cooper who
is expected to be a huge target hog this season despite a poor
showing in 2017. Cooper was injured, however, so there’s
still reason to believe that he could potentially finish as a
WR1 this season. Unfortunately, Cooper will likely see plenty
of attention from this improved Los Angeles secondary that now
features Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Sam Shields at cornerback.
While he’s not likely to have one of the huge games that
we’ve seen from him on occasion in the past, Cooper should
see enough targets in this game to at least be a low-end WR2.
The only other pass catcher in this offense that fantasy owners
should be eyeing this week is tight end Jared Cook who hasn’t
been all that spectacular during his time in Oakland, but is the
only other receiver in this offense that Carr has much rapport
with.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: It’s easy to look
at Marshawn Lynch’s 2017 season-ending statistics and see
a player who is past his prime, worn out, and simply not very
good anymore. But a closer look at the actual film would tell
you that Lynch simply didn’t have much to work with and
it’s actually shocking that he performed even as well as
he did. The Raiders offense isn’t expected to be great this
season but if there’s one thing that we should expect, it’s
that Jon Gruden will want to pound the rock. Who better to do
that with than Beast Mode? Lynch isn’t much of a contributor
in the passing game so he doesn’t have the high floor that
others do in PPR formats, but he’s still likely to see enough
carries that he produces decent fantasy numbers with the upside
of a touchdown, so I like him as an RB2 even in what could be
a tough matchup against a much improved Los Angeles defensive
line.