Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Jaguars @ Titans
- (Bales) Line: TEN -4.5 Total: 37.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars passing game was virtually
non-existent last week with Cody Kessler drawing his first start.
Kessler threw for 150 yards without any touchdowns or interceptions
on 24 pass attempts. He also ran for 28 yards, but makes an awful
option due to lack of upside. He also gets a tough matchup against
the Titans, who are allowing only 221.0 passing yards per game
this season. They have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, while recording
only seven interceptions and allow the 4th fewest fantasy points
to quarterbacks .
Kessler’s inability to take shots down the field limit
the upside of any Jaguars receiver or tight end. Donte Moncrief
comes with some upside because of his big play ability, while
Dede Westbrook should continue to command the most targets. Neither
make great options though, and D.J. Chark (if healthy) and Keelan
Cole can also be avoided. At tight end, James O’Shaughnessy
only saw two targets last week, and is also a poor option in this
matchup.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee has struggled at times against
the run this season, allowing 119.8 rushing yards per game. They
have also allowed eight rushing touchdowns. Leonard Fournette
was suspended last week, allowing T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde
to combine for 21 carries and eight receptions (nine targets).
Fournette will likely give way to Yeldon at times in this game,
but he’s still the featured back. Since returning from injury,
Fournette is averaging 119.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns on 26.7
touches (3.3 targets) per game. Tennessee doesn’t have the
offense to blowout the Jaguars, meaning Fournette could see decent
game script for the majority of the game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars have featured one of the best
passing defenses in the NFL this season, holding Andrew Luck and
the Colts to a goose egg last week. On the season, they are allowing
207.0 passing yards per game and have allowed only 15 passing
touchdowns, while recording nine interceptions. Marcus Mariota
has been heating up recently, throwing two touchdowns in four
of his last five games. He was injured in his first matchup against
the Jaguars and threw for only 100 yards on 18 attempts but added
51 yards on the ground. This is a terrible matchup for Mariota
and he should be avoided unless you’re in a terrible spot
this week.
Corey Davis has been far and away the best receiver for the Titans
this season, averaging 4.3 receptions for 62.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns
on 7.6 targets per game. He’s been playing at a higher level
recently, scoring touchdowns in three of his last four games.
Taywan Taylor needed only five targets to record three receptions
for 104 yards last week, but he has been far too inconsistent
to consider on this slate. Jonnu Smith is an athletic tight end,
scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Jacksonville has also struggled against the tight end this season,
making Smith a high upside option. Surprisingly, Anthony Firkser
has recorded three or more receptions in each of his last three
games. He’s a tight end that can be considered if you’re
in a tough spot, but he doesn’t make a great option.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville is another team that has
struggled a bit against the run this season, allowing 108.4 rushing
yards per game this season. They have also allowed 10 rushing
touchdowns. Derrick Henry has found some success, but has been
an extremely touchdown dependent player. He totaled only 57 rushing
yards on 18 carries in his first matchup against Jacksonville,
and he’ll likely see fewer carries this week. Dion Lewis
has featured plenty of ups and downs, but he has been the running
back to own in Tennessee. Through 12 games, he’s averaging
64.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on 15.0 touches (3.8 receptions)
per game. He certainly comes with upside, but again, this is a
bad matchup for the entire Tennessee offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens passing game has taken a hit
since Lamar Jackson took over as the quarterback, but the fantasy
production from the quarterback position has been great. Jackson
brings a unique skill that has almost never been in the NFL. Yes,
he still has plenty to work on as a pure passer, particularly
with his footwork and throwing mechanics, but what he is capable
of doing with his legs is simply incredible - and it’s why
he’s a serious contender to be a top 12 quarterback each
and every week, regardless of matchup. Jackson has thrown for
just 453 yards and one touchdown with three interceptions in his
three starts, but he’s added 265 yards and two touchdowns
as a runner in those games. That translates to over 15 fantasy
points per game - and remember that this is about his floor as
a passer. We truly haven’t seen his ceiling. Receivers John
Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead are all players who should
probably be on your bench until we see Jackson lock in on one
of them, but Jackson himself has a great matchup against a Kansas
City defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to
opposing quarterbacks so far this season.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens offense has predictably changed
almost entirely since Jackson became quarterback and that also
includes the running game. While he’s not exposing defenses
with his arm, what Jackson is capable of doing with his legs is
working to hold defenders’ attention long enough to open
up running lanes for his running backs. Gus Edwards has benefited
from this, rushing for a total of 315 yards in the three starts
Jackson has made. He hasn’t contributed much in the passing
game, however, and that is a bit of a concern as the Ravens will
be facing a Kansas City team that is capable of lighting up the
scoreboard. If the Ravens do find themselves behind, we might
see more of running back/former wide receiver Ty Montgomery who
has caught eight passes over his past two games. Montgomery has
also been given 11 carries over those two games, so there’s
some upside for him to be used both as a runner and a pass catcher
in this contest. Edwards is a bit of a risk, especially in PPR
formats, but he does present some upside if the Ravens are able
to stay relatively close in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s easy to look at the Chiefs’
matchup against the Ravens and be worried, but it’s important
to not over-emphasize the opposition when talking about elite
offenses. The Chiefs have been on a historic pace this season,
led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes who should again be considered
a strong QB1 play this week even though the Ravens have given
up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
this season. Tight end Travis Kelce, who scored twice this past
week, is again one of the top two or three options on the board
at the position and should be deployed without concern. Tyreek
Hill, who was held to just one catch for 13 yards against the
Raiders, is the player who is probably most concerning heading
into this matchup due to his lack of production this past week.
Hill has shown incredible upside at times this season, but these
types of games are part of what you have to deal with sometimes
when you own a big time down-field playmaker like Hill. There
will be a lot of big games, but sometimes it just doesn’t
happen. Hill might get benched by over-reactionary fantasy owners,
but don’t fall into that trap. Yes, this is a difficult
matchup, but Hill still saw plenty of deep targets last week and
should be in line for more of that this week.
The other starting wide receiver position is one to pay attention
to, as well. Sammy Watkins (foot) continues to be banged up and
is again on the injury report this week, which leads us to believe
that Chris Conley will likely get another start here in Week 13.
Conley was held to just three catches for 25 yards in Week 13
with Watkins out of the lineup, but he did score a touchdown to
return value for those who took a chance on him. We shouldn’t
expect a high touchdown rate for Conley, but he has scored three
times over his past two games and could be an important part of
the offense this week if the Ravens choose to shade coverage toward
Hill.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Spencer Ware got his first chance to start
this season in Week 13 and while he got into the end zone, it’s
hard not to be concerned that he was quite inefficient with his
14 carries, turning them into just 47 rushing yards against a
bad Oakland defense. This week Ware will see a Baltimore defense
that has only allowed two running backs to eclipse 65 rushing
yards so far this season. Not only that, but they’ve only
given up five total rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs
so far in 2018. Their league-best fantasy defense is something
we do have to be worried about because Ware simply isn’t
an elite talent and he’s not getting all of the touches
out of the backfield either, as Damien Williams carried the ball
five times in the Chiefs’ win over the Raiders while adding
two catches. With Ware splitting time, at least to some extent,
and the Chiefs being a much more pass-happy offense so far this
season, Ware should be considered more of a low-end RB2 this week
than the high-end RB2 he was in Week 13.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Darnold is back this week and it’s
just in time to face the league’s top ranked pass defense.
The Bills allow a league low 187 yards per game through the air.
Darnold missed the debacle that was the Jets last contest with
the Bills where they lost 41-10. Darnold has completed an uninspiring
55% of his throws this season and when we last saw him in Week
9, he was throwing four picks and no touchdowns. Darnold will
have Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson available this week, but
neither is a reliable fantasy option. Chris Herndon has emerged
into a worthwhile TE streamer, but the Bills are second in the
league in covering the TE. This is a bad spot on the road and
one in which you should avoid all Jets.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell (toe) missed
practice Thursday, but I still expect him to be out there this
weekend. The Bills allow 4.1 yards per carry and their 12 rushing
touchdowns allowed are more a product of the negative game script
they’ve faced than a poor run defense. If there’s
any area this defense struggles, it’s in defending pass
catching RBs. The Bills are slightly below average in that area,
but you are not even thinking about using Elijah McGuire unless
Crowell is inactive.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As much as I’d like to tell you
how terrible of a quarterback Josh Allen is, for fantasy purposes,
all we care about is production. Allen can’t throw a football,
but he’s rushed for 135 and 99 yards in each of his last
two games. It seems absurd that a QB with more interceptions (7)
than touchdowns (5) is somehow fantasy viable, but rushing numbers
are a cheat code. From a passing department, the Bills receiving
corps actually got a slight boost heading into this week via addition
by the subtraction of Kelvin Benjamin. Zay Jones is a sneaky streaming
option for the desperate. The Jets are about average against opposing
WR1s, but volume is always a concern with Bills pass catchers
as Sean McDermott would prefer to have Allen throw as little as
possible.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy has had one really good game
this season and it was against the Jets. You can bank on history
repeating itself, but I can’t endorse a guy with two touchdowns
all season. With Allen opting to run so often, McCoy’s passing
game usage has gone down, averaging fewer than four targets per
game. The Jets are one of the weaker run defenses, allowing 4.5
yards per carry and we’ve already seen McCoy torch them,
but if you somehow made the playoffs with McCoy on your team,
you didn’t do so by starting him. Keep it that way.
Panthers @ Browns
- (Swanson) Line: CAR -1.5 Total: 47.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton enters Sunday’s fantasy
playoff game against the Browns as the No.3 ranked quarterback
with 26.2 fantasy points per game. Newton has just two games of
fewer than 20 fantasy points and four games, including his three-touchdown
game against the Lions Week 11, of over 30 fantasy points.
Although his rushing yards and touchdowns are not what they were
in previous seasons, he still leads all quarterbacks in rushing
yards this season (450), and he is tied with Josh Allen for second
in rushing touchdowns with (4).
The Browns present a solid matchup for Newton owners as the No.11
ranked team in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Seven
opposing quarterbacks reached at least 20 fantasy points against
Cleveland this season, including three 30-point games by Derek
Carr, Jameis Winston, and Patrick Mahomes. In the games in which
the Browns limited opposing quarterbacks to fewer than 20 points,
it was often due to the fact that the opposing running back on
the opposition posted a monster game.
Newton should be considered an elite play this week in all formats,
especially in four-point per passing touchdown leagues. Look for
him to continue to lean heavily on running back Christian McCaffrey
in the passing game. Teams with excellent pass-catching backs
like CMC have found decent success in passing out of the backfield,
and no running back in the league has more receptions than McCaffrey.
With at least one touchdown or 80 receiving yards in four of
his last five games and a career-high 11 targets last week against
the Bucs, Curtis Samuel has developed into a reliable target for
Newton and a viable flex option for fantasy owners. Although Devin
Funchess returned last week and will continue to be part of the
offense, the loss of tight end Greg Olsen to a season-ending foot
injury should keep Samuels an active part of the passing game.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey is an elite start
this week in all fantasy formats and should be quite active against
a Browns team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points on
the season to opposing running backs.
Blue chip fantasy running backs like McCaffrey have had a field
day against Gregg Williams’ defense. Kareem Hunt, Melvin
Gordon, and James Conner (twice) each posted multi-touchdown games
this season vs. the Browns, giving hope to CMC owners that he
too will come through in his critical Week 14 matchup.
Defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi is listed as questionable with
a biceps injury. Although he is slated to play, he will likely
be at less than 100%, making CMC’s prospects for an excellent
game even more promising.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Baker Mayfield looks to be well worth
the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft after posting the
eighth-most fantasy points over the past five weeks, including
a four-touchdown day against the Bengals Week 12.
Since Week 9, Mayfield has more fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers,
Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and even Mr.
three touchdowns per game himself, Andrew Luck. Last week’s
three-interception debacle was sort of a head-scratcher considering
the way Mayfield played in his previous three games, but he did
still finish with 23.9 fantasy points and nearly 400 passing yards.
Like all good quarterbacks, Mayfield has taken advantage of prime
matchups against subpar defenses like the Falcons and Bengals.
This week’s home matchup against a Panthers defense that
allows the sixth-most points to opposing quarterback certainly
constitutes a prime matchup for Mayfield and the Browns passing
offense.
After four weeks of 50 or fewer receiving yards and zero touchdowns,
Jarvis Landry came through with 103 yards and six receptions on
nine targets against the Texans. One of the negatives that came
from the change at offensive coordinator from Todd Haley to Freddie
Kitchens has been the volume for Landry in the passing game. Landry
has not reached double figures in targets since Week 9 as Mayfield
continues to spread the ball around and the Browns continue to
focus more on the run with Nick Chubb.
An interesting matchup to watch will be tight end David Njoku
against the linebackers and nickel corners of the Panthers. Carolina
is surprisingly terrible against tight ends this season, with
a league-leading nine touchdowns allowed in 12 games. Ten different
tight ends going against Carolina in 2018 have either scored a
touchdown or topped 50 yards. If Njoku can play through a knee
injury that limited him in practice on Wednesday and play in this
game, he could be a top-five tight end play with the upside of
a touchdown or two.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Nick Chubb continues to be a dominant
fantasy asset since taking over as the lead running back for the
Browns Week 7. The rookie from Georgia trails only Christian McCaffrey,
Leonard Fournette, and Ezekiel Elliott in fantasy points per game
dating back to Week 9.
Chubb has been the model of consistency during that span with
a rushing touchdown in five of his last six games and multi-touchdown
performances in two of his previous three. When the Browns are
ahead and the game script does not force Kitchens to use Duke
Johnson more than usual, Chubb averages around 70% of the offensive
snaps. Assuming that the Browns do not get down early against
the Panthers and can keep pace with their base offense of Chubb
as the primary back, a 70% snap count should be in line once again
for the first-year tailback.
Conversely, Duke Johnson’s value appears only to be realized
in game situations like the Kansas City and Atlanta when the Browns
are playing against teams that struggle on defense to stop receiving
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck is coming off of a tough matchup
against the Jaguars, but he had thrown at least three touchdowns
in each of his last eight games prior to that. On the season,
he’s averaging 280.0 yards and 2.7 touchdowns on 40.1 pass
attempts per game. He’ll likely be forced to throw the ball
40+ in a competitive game this weekend, as well. He gets a much
better matchup against the Texans, who are allowing 250.0 passing
yards per game. They have allowed 20 passing touchdowns with 12
interceptions in 2018, as well.
T.Y. Hilton (shoulder) has been his top receiving option all
season, and he has been playing at an extremely high level over
the last three weeks. Over that span, he’s averaging 8.0
receptions for 119.0 yards and 0.7 touchdowns on 10.7 targets
per game. Dontrelle Inman (shoulder) has been playing a larger
role recently, totaling four or more targets in each of his last
five games. With that being said, he hasn’t produced well
enough to be considered. Jack Doyle was recently injured, and
Eric Ebron has taken over at tight end once again. Over the last
two weeks, he’s averaging 7.5 receptions for 63.0 yards
and 1.0 touchdown on 11.5 targets per game. He’s an elite
tight end option, and the only other player that should truly
be considered in this receiving group.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Marlon Mack has been a featured part of
the offense for the majority of the season, but that wasn’t
the case last week. On the season, he’s averaging 84.2 yards
and 0.6 touchdowns on 16.1 touches per game. Nyheim Hines hasn’t
been a big part of the offense recently, but he did see nine targets
last week. That may have been a bit of an outlier, and he’s
best suited for the bench for the time being. Houston has featured
one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing only 91.3 rushing
yards per game this season. They have also allowed only six rushing
touchdowns in 2018. The Colts could be playing from behind a bit
in this game, making Mack a risky option, as he tends to give
way to Hines on passing downs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson has looked outstanding
this season, averaging 252.6 yards and 1.8 touchdowns on 30.3
pass attempts per game. He has also totaled 375 yards and two
touchdowns on the ground through 12 games. He gets somewhat of
a tough matchup against the Colts, who have quietly featured a
solid pass defense. On the season, they are allowing only 244.0
passing yards per game. They have also held their opponents to
only 18 touchdowns, while recording 11 interceptions. With that
being said, Watson threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns, while
adding 41 yards and one touchdown on the ground against the Colts
in their only matchup this season.
DeAndre Hopkins has cooled off recently, but he’s still
averaging 6.7 receptions for 92.9 yards and 0.7 touchdowns on
9.5 targets per game. He has only seen double-digit targets in
two of his last seven games after seeing 10+ targets in each of
his first five this season. Keke Coutee was ruled out last week
with an injury, but he could potentially return this week. With
that being said, he hasn’t been playing a large enough role
to safely be considered. Demaryius Thomas flashed against the
Titans, posting a 4/38/2 line on five targets, but he has been
wildly unsuccessful with his new team in his other games. He’s
a player that can safely stay on benches at this point in the
season. The Texans tight ends are splitting snaps with each other,
and they can all be avoided at this point as well.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Surprisingly, the Colts have featured
an above average run defense, allowing only 104.1 rushing yards
per game. They have also held their opponents to only eight rushing
touchdowns in 2018. Lamar Miller has been playing at a high level
recently, averaging 111.7 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 18.5 touches
over his last six games. He has run for 100+ yards in four of
those games, as well. Alfred Blue has seen 13+ carries in four
of his last five games, but he hasn’t produced well enough
to be considered. Houston could be leading this game, though,
which could lead to a few more carries for Miller.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After his 281-yard, two touchdown performance
this past week against the Chargers, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
now ranks second in the league in fantasy points, trailing only
behind Patrick Mahomes. 26 touchdown passes with 13 interceptions
doesn’t sound overly impressive, but Roethlisberger is also
on pace for 5,260 yards passing, which would be the third-most
passing yards in a single season in NFL history. It all starts
with wide receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster who
are both solid fantasy WR1’s this season and should be again
this week against a bad Raiders defense that has given up 28 passing
touchdowns this season. Oakland has actually been bad enough that
some opposing teams have ended up passing less than they normally
would due to game script, but Roethlisberger and his pass catching
weapons. Tight end Vance McDonald is also a player to keep an
eye on as he’ll be against a Raiders defense that has given
up more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any team this
season. McDonald has caught at least three passes in seven straight
games and makes for a high-floor option in this game.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: James Conner has been one of the league-winners
this season, but with him already listed as out for this week’s
game, the Steelers will have to turn to other options out of the
backfield. The most interesting player is rookie Jaylen Samuels
who hasn’t seen much work yet this season but has scored
twice as a pass catcher already here in 2018. Other than the matchup
and the high-powered offense, the thing that actually makes Samuels
particularly interesting is his positional eligibility on the
Yahoo! fantasy format. Yahoo! lists Samuels not only as a running
back, but also as a tight end. That means you can put Samuels
in as your starting running back OR starting tight end this week.
The reason that’s particularly valuable is because the tight
end position is typically touchdown-or-bust for most players and
finding a player who is likely to touch the ball 10-or-more times
in a game is extraordinarily rare. Samuels is a low-level RB2,
but a mid-level TE1 on Yahoo! The other running back to pay attention
to is Stevan Ridley who hasn’t seen a touch since Week 10
but has substantially more NFL experience as a running back than
Samuels does. Ridley himself isn’t a start-worthy player
until we see how this situation plays out, but it’s something
to pay attention to.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Very few expected that the Raiders would
even have a chance against the Chiefs, but Derek Carr put the
team on his back and really put together an impressive second
half, but ultimately fell short. Still, Carr threw for 285 yards
and three scores while avoiding turning the ball over. The biggest
beneficiary of Carr’s nice fantasy day was tight end Jared
Cook, who again led the team with 100 receiving yards on seven
catches with a touchdown. It was Cook’s third 100-yard day
of the season as he continues to produce solid TE1 numbers in
a season where the position has been pretty bad overall. Cook
has now scored in three straight games and has to be considered
a solid TE1 again this week against the Steelers. The other player
who seemingly came out of nowhere to have a big fantasy day was
Jordy Nelson, who caught all 10 of his targets for 97 yards. It
was his first catch since Week 9 and Nelson has seemingly re-established
himself as the WR1 in Oakland.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Doug Martin again led the
Raiders in carries in Week 13 as he rushed for 61 yards on 18
carries. He scored a touchdown, but it’s hard not to look
at his sub-3.4 yards per carry average and think that more touches
for Jalen Richard - who rushed for 95 yards on just six carries
- could have done more. Richard only caught three passes, but
he is still the primary pass catching back in Oakland. Unfortunately,
he’s not the leading rusher, so that significantly caps
his upside, even in a matchup like this one where the Raiders
might find themselves behind on the scoreboard and thus needing
to pass heavily in the second half. The Steelers have given up
the ninth-fewest rushing yards per attempt to opposing running
backs this season, so Martin is again a low-level Flex as a touchdown-or-bust
option.
Patriots at Dolphins
- (Katz) Line: NE -8.0 Total: 48.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The highlight of Tom Brady’s performance
last week against the Vikings was his 1,000th career rushing yard.
While that’s fun and all, it doesn’t translate to
fantasy success. Brady played well overall, but threw just one
touchdown, bringing his last five game total up to a whopping
four. Josh Gordon caught it, but he only saw three targets. Julian
Edelman had an abysmal game, catching just three of his eight
targets, but the fact that he saw eight targets keeps him in the
fantasy conversation. Rob Gronkowski is just another TE and one
you should absolutely bench if you have a better option. Do not
get attached the name value in Gronk – he’s not Gronk
anymore – he’s just Rob. Somehow, the Dolphins are
second in the league with 19 interceptions, but their 23 passing
touchdowns allowed are in the bottom third of the league. Despite
the overall favorable matchup, this is a game where the Patriots
should experience positive game script and lean on the ground
game, making Edelman the only clear starter from this passing
attack.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: The passing game options will suffer severely
from the fact that the Dolphins bleed points to running backs.
Only two teams allow more than the Dolphins 144.7 rushing yards
per game against. They are also in the bottom third in defending
pass catching backs, which bodes well for James White. The pass
catching specialist is coming off a bounce back performance where
he saw nine targets, catching seven for 92 yards. This seems like
a great spot for a Sony Michel explosion, but that requires a
bit of volume, which is something that appears doubtful with Rex
Burkhead back in the rotation. Burkhead played just 23% of the
snaps last week, but that was enough to frustrate Michel owners.
No Patriots back eclipsed the 50% threshold with White and Michel
appearing in 45% and 41% respectively. I have no doubt that the
Patriots will dominate on the ground. Someone is going to score.
I just have no idea who.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Completing 16 of 24 passes is good. Throwing
three touchdowns is good. Managing only 137 passing yards is…interesting?
Ryan Tannehill is absolutely not going to be your starting QB
in the first week of the fantasy playoffs and you are also not
touching any of his receiving options. DeVante Parker caught a
touchdown last week with Danny Amendola out. Amendola has been
limited in practice this week with a knee injury but is expected
to play. Kenny Stills also caught a touchdown, but he only saw
six targets. There should be more volume in a game against the
Patriots, who like Miami, have also allowed 23 passing touchdowns,
but not enough to make Stills someone you can actually start.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake played 55% of the snaps last
week and only had one fewer carry (7) than Frank Gore (8). That
is encouraging as Drake is so vastly superior to Gore in every
way but his low usage makes it difficult to trust him. Gore is
not a fantasy option, but Drake has been reestablishing himself
as trustworthy thanks to a couple trips to the endzone the last
two weeks. He’s caught a touchdown in two straight games
and saw four and six targets in his last two respectively. The
Patriots struggle against pass catching RBs, something the Vikings
could not exploit last week. Drake should be heavily involved
and will be aided by game script. He’s a good bet to find
the end zone again this week.
Saints @ Buccaneers
- (Bales) Line: NO -9.5 Total: 54.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers have featured one of the
worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, allowing 274.0 yards
per game. They have also allowed a league-high 28 passing touchdowns,
while recording only seven interceptions. Drew Brees, on the other
hand, has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season,
averaging 271.8 yards and 2.5 touchdowns on 32.0 pass attempts
per game. In their only matchup this season, Brees threw for 439
yards and three touchdowns. The only real concern in this game
is a blowout, but New Orleans could be looking to score as many
points as possible as they look to redeem one of their only two
losses on the season.
Michael Thomas has been Brees’ top receiving option this
season, averaging 7.6 receptions for 93.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns
on 8.8 targets per game. Surprisingly, Thomas has seen fewer than
10 targets in eight of his last nine games. Tampa Bay simply does
not have anyone that can guard him though, as he posted a 16/180/1
line against them on 17 targets in their first matchup. The rest
of the Saints receiving options are a bit of a toss up. Keith
Kirkwood has seen only three targets per game over the last two
weeks, but he has scored a touchdown in each game. Tre’Quan
Smith combined for one target in Week 10 and 13, while posting
a 10/157/1 line Week 11, and sitting out Week 12. Ben Watson is
the starting tight end, but he has been out-produced by Dan Arnold
recently, although Arnold also struggles to produce fantasy value
for the most part. Smith can be used if you’re in dire need
of a big game, but Michael Thomas is the only receiver or tight
end that is safe in this situation.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram’s role in the Saints
offense has been anything but steady this season. Through eight
games, he’s averaging 75.3 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 14.0
touches per game. He’s a touchdown dependent running back,
but this game should feature plenty of scoring, and New Orleans
could lean on him to run out the clock. Alvin Kamara is the better
option in the backfield, averaging 108.1 yards and 1.3 touchdowns
on 18.8 touches (5.4 receptions) per game. He isn’t quite
as good of a fantasy option with Ingram in the lineup, but he
still makes an elite play and will see his touches regardless
of game script. This is also a plus matchup for both backs, as
Tampa Bay is allowing 121.0 rushing yards per game this season.
They have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns, as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints are another team that has struggled
against the pass this season. They’re currently allowed
279.0 passing yards per game, while also allowing 22 touchdowns.
Furthermore, they have only recorded 10 interceptions. Jameis
Winston will draw the start again this week, and he has been an
outstanding fantasy option when on the field. Through seven games
(although all weren’t full games), he’s averaging
277.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns on 33.1 pass attempts per game.
He’s also averaging 28.1 yards per game on the ground this
season. He has thrown for two touchdowns in each of his last three
games, and he will likely be playing from behind the majority
of this game.
Mike Evans continues to be the top option for Tampa Bay, averaging
5.5 receptions for 93.4 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 8.8 targets
per game. Evans also posted a 7/147/1 line on seven targets against
the Saints in their first matchup. DeSean Jackson continues to
deal with a thumb injury, and Chris Godwin would be in a great
spot again if he’s out. Without Jackson last week, Godwin
caught five passes for 101 targets and one touchdown on six targets.
Adam Humphries has quietly been a great receiver for fantasy owners.
Over his last six games, he’s averaging 5.5 receptions for
64.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 6.8 targets per game. He is still
available in some leagues, but he has been posting WR2 numbers
over that span. Cameron Brate hasn’t been producing at an
elite level for the majority of the season, but he’s taking
all of the tight end snaps with O.J. Howard injured. He’s
also a touchdown threat on a weekly basis, and Brate makes a solid
option again this week.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Barber has found some success recently,
scoring one touchdown in each of his last three games. With that
being said, he’s averaging only 66.0 rushing yards per game
over that span, and Tampa Bay will likely be playing from behind
in this game. Furthermore, the Saints are allowing a league-low
75.4 rushing yards per game in 2018, although they have allowed
10 rushing touchdowns. Still, this is a tough matchup for a running
back that has struggled quite a bit throughout the season.
Giants at Redskins
- (Katz) Line: NYG -3.5 Total: 41.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Are we sure the Giants aren’t better
off just putting Odell Beckham Jr. at quarterback? The Giants
scored a home win against the Bears last week where Beckham threw
his second touchdown of the season. He also caught Eli Manning’s
only touchdown pass. Despite the win, the clock has to be ticking
on Manning as he turned in his worst performance of the season
with lows in yardage (170), completion percentage (54.29%), and
yards per attempt (4.86). Thankfully, Beckham has been largely
unaffected. He has seen at least nine targets in all but one game
this season and has at least 85 receiving yards or a touchdown
in six straight games. The Redskins allow 88.5 yards per game
to opposing WR1s. As for the rest of the Giants passing attack,
you can ignore Sterling Shepard and Rhett Ellison as neither is
seeing enough volume to be fantasy viable. It is also worth noting
that Evan Engram is poised to return from his hamstring injury
this week, where he will presumably continue to operate as the
third stringer behind Ellison and Scott Simonson. He belongs on
waiver wires.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Another week, another 100-yard game for
Saquon Barkley. Early in the season, Barkley was largely compiling.
Over the past three weeks, he’s been efficient as well.
The Redskins are actually the top ranked team at defending pass
catching RBs and they only allow 4.2 yards per carry. But even
if they contain Barkley, he will see enough volume to remain an
elite fantasy option. You know what Barkley is at this point.
You start him every week, regardless of matchup, and feel great
about it.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There’s really not much to say about
the Redskins passing attack. They are currently trotting out Mark
Sanchez at quarterback. Between Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder,
and Jordan Reed, none of them have been inspiring options. Now
down to a third string quarterback, you can safely ignore this
entire passing attack. For what it’s worth, the Giants have
actually allowed just 17 passing touchdowns on the season, just
two more than the league leading 15 allowed by the Vikings and
Jaguars. Even if Alex Smith or Colt McCoy were healthy, you wouldn’t
be starting anyone on this team.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: If you started Adrian
Peterson last week, you got one of the luckiest performances of
the season. Peterson somehow ripped off a 90-yard touchdown run,
which accounted for 99% of his fantasy output. Anomalous runs
notwithstanding, you can’t start AP anymore. The Redskins
are going to struggle to find themselves in scoring position and
will almost never have positive game script. AP only carried the
ball nine times last week. I’d be surprised if he saw more
than 15 carries in a game again this year. Chris Thompson also
played football last week, but you barely noticed. He saw five
targets and handled three carries. He is not fantasy relevant.
If you want any glimmer of optimism for AP, the Giants allow 19.4
FPts/G to opposing RB1s, but that’s all I’ve got.
The offense just isn’t good enough.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan threw for just under 5000 yards
and a career-high 37 passing touchdowns in his 2016 MVP season.
The former first-round pick from Boston College posted career
marks in completion percentage and interceptions while leading
the Falcons to the Super Bowl.
It may surprise many readers to learn that Ryan is having an
even better year this season. He is on pace for 5,084 passing
yards, 33 passing touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He has
already tied his career-best with two rushing touchdowns and is
on pace to complete over 70% of his passes for the first time
in his NFL career.
At 26.1 fantasy points per game, he ranks fourth in the league
behind Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton. Despite
these impressive numbers, the biggest knock against Ryan and the
reason why he can be a frustrating fantasy owner is his inconsistent
play. Ryan has five games of 30 or more fantasy points sandwiched
between four games of fewer than 20, including last week’s
11-point debacle at home against the Ravens.
When he is good, Ryan has proven to be a week-winning quarterback.
But when he is bad, Ryan has torpedoed many a fantasy owner and
single-handedly cost many owners a chance at making the playoffs
last week.
The Packers rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks
over the past five weeks and 25th on the season. Much has been
written about the numerous injuries to the Packer secondary, but
the truth is Mike Pettine has done a solid job in his first season
as defensive coordinator at Green Bay.
Another knock against Matt Ryan this week is the fact that the
game will be played outside at Lambeau Field on a cold Wisconsin
afternoon. Ryan’s QB rating outdoors is 25 points lower
than inside a dome, and he averages nearly two points less per
pass attempt when away from the Mercedes Benz Dome.
Julio Jones did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable
with a foot injury. Should Jones miss this game or be limited,
Ryan would be without his favorite target and would put more pressure
on rookie Calvin Ridley and the other pass-catching options for
the Falcons.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The season-ending knee injury to Devonta
Freeman should have been a boost for the fantasy production of
Tevin Coleman. With Freeman out of the lineup, Coleman appeared
to have the opportunity to prove his ability as an elite running
back in a contract year for the former star at Indiana. Instead,
Coleman is barely rushing for more than 4.0 yards per carry and
is on pace to score the fewest rushing touchdowns of his four-year
NFL career. Instead of showcasing his talent with the hope of
earning a monster free agent deal similar to what Jerick McKinnon
received from the 49ers this past offseason, Coleman added doubt
in the mind of NFL executives and may have cost himself a ton
of money.
Rookie running back Ito Smith has not been much better, with
221 rushing yards on 70 carries for a paltry 3.2 yard per carry
average. As the primary goal line and short yardage back those
stats are a bit skewed, but he has not excelled in his role and
continues to be a thorn in the side of Coleman owners.
Injuries to the defensive line of the Packers made a strong rush
defense unit susceptible to the run this season. Ten running backs
in 12 games have managed to reach at least ten points against
the Packers, Including rookie Chase Edmonds last week in Green
Bay’s shocking loss at home to the Cardinals.
Three of their previous four teams have reached at least 100
yards on the ground. With Ryan’s passing woes on the road
in cold games and the massive number of injuries to their defense,
it would make a ton of sense for head coach Dan Quinn to implement
a run-heavy approach in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A shocking loss at home to the Arizona
Cardinals proved to be the final straw as the Packers front office
fired long-time head coach Mike McCarthy. Green Bay’s offense
looks like an old NES compared to the innovative and creative
PS4 offenses run by Matt Nagy, Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, and Sean
McVay.
Although the timing of the firing was surprising, it makes sense
from an organizational standpoint to move on. Green Bay invested
heavily in Aaron Rodgers and wasting his final five years or so
of elite performance would be a shame. Hopefully, the Green Bay
front office will bring in a head coach and offensive coordinator
who will be able to maximize the potential of Rodgers and the
young wide receiving corps for the Pack.
I am not sure that I buy into the narrative that Rodgers will
respond with a monster game now that McCarthy is gone, but there
is no doubting the plus matchup that he has this week against
a Falcons defense that ranks second in most points allowed to
quarterbacks in 2018.
Only three quarterbacks have failed to score at least 20 points
this season against Atlanta, and seven opposing QBs have managed
to post at least 24 points. Numerous injuries to the secondary
and defensive front of the Falcons limit their ability to both
cover and get pressure on the quarterback. If Rodgers has enough
time to move around the pocket, he should be able to find great
success on Sunday.
The first season for Jimmy Graham in Green Bay has been nothing
short of a disappointment. The former pro bowl tight end ranks
18th in fantasy points per game while on pace to post his fewest
yards, touchdowns, and catches in his career (full 16-game season).
On a positive note, he did receive the largest target share of
his season (22%) last week against Arizona and could be in line
for more looks from Rodgers vs. Atlanta.
Davante Adams continues to be a must-start wide receiver and
is an elite play this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed
17 touchdowns to WRs, and stud No.1 wideouts like Antonio Brown,
Odell Beckham Jr., and Michael Thomas have all posted monster
games against the Falcons this season.
No.2 and No.3 wide receivers have also fared well, but figuring
out who Rodgers will target outside of Adams has proven to be
a difficult task as of late. Just when we thought Marquez Valdes-Scantling
was emerging as Rodgers’ second-favorite WR target the rookie
from USF posted four total catches in his last three games.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: One of the most frustrating aspects of
Mike McCarthy’s coaching style this season was his insistence
on incorporating Jamaal Williams in the rushing game and not giving
Aaron Jones bell cow work. Even with Rodgers publicly pleading
for Jones to get more work and Jones trailing only Phillip Lindsay
for more yards per carry, McCarthy kept rolling out Williams to
the chagrin of Packer fans and fantasy owners.
It will be interesting to see if interim head coach Joe Philbin
gives Jones a workhorse level of work against Atlanta, a team
that ranks fourth in most points allowed to the running back position.
If he does and Jones gets at least 20 touches on Sunday, Jones
could be a matchup-winning asset for fantasy owners.
Starting defensive lineman Grady Jarrett missed practice Wednesday,
and linebacker Deion Jones was limited with a foot injury. Jarret
posted four solo tackles, and two forced fumbles last week against
the Falcons. If he were to miss this game due to a shoulder injury,
the expectations for both Jones and Rodgers should be increased.
Bengals at Chargers
- (Caron) Line: LAC -14.0 Total: 47.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Andy Dalton and A.J. Green both on
IR, the Bengals passing game is simply not setup to be much of
a fantasy force here in Week 14. The only player who we should
be real excited about is slot receiver Tyler Boyd who has continued
his breakout season even with Jeff Driskel at quarterback. Boyd’s
69 receptions, 938 yards and six touchdowns all lead the Bengals
and he’s caught 13 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown
over his past two games when Driskel has been passing him the
ball.
The other player who could potentially be considered for fantasy
purposes is tight end C.J. Uzomah. Uzomah has 11 catches over
his past two games, albeit for just 72 total yards, but he plays
a position that is extraordinarily thin this season. Wide receiver
John Ross had caught a touchdown in each of his previous three
games heading into Week 13, but was held scoreless against the
Broncos. Ross is a big play specialist who is certainly capable
of putting up fantasy points in bunches if he gets deep, but the
Chargers’ secondary is excellent and he’s not a good
bet to get deep for a score in this game.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Joe Mixon continues to battle
nagging injuries this season, but he’s expected to be on
the field and relied upon heavily by the Bengals this week. Mixon
has touched the ball at least 13 times in every game he’s
played this season, including 33 receptions on the season, which
gives him a pretty high floor along with a fairly high ceiling
in a matchup against a Chargers defense that allowed three touchdowns
to Pittsburgh running backs this past week. Giovani Bernard is
a player who can have PPR value in games where the Bengals fall
behind, as they did against the Broncos in Week 13 when he caught
six passes, but he’s very game script-dependent and thus
risky with a low ceiling even in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off of a huge win on the road against
the Steelers, Philip Rivers and the Chargers will have a much
easier task this week at home against the Bengals. The Bengals
have been horrible across the board on defense this season, but
their pass defense ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to
opposing quarterbacks as they’ve already given up 26 passing
touchdowns on the season along with nearly 290 passing yards per
game. Rivers has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in every
game this season and this is certainly a matchup that we should
be excited about him doing that again in. He’s a strong
QB1 play this week with the upside to be the top scoring quarterback
if the Chargers decide to pass near the goal line with Melvin
Gordon expected to be out.
Wide receiver Keenan Allen is the pass catcher that fantasy owners
should be most excited about as he appears to be well on his way
to another strong second-half of a season. After being held to
just one touchdown in his first eight games of 2018, Allen has
scored in each of his past four contests heading into this game
against the Bengals. He caught a whopping 14 passes this past
week and while a lot of that had to do with the bizarre defensive
strategy (or lack thereof) that the Steelers rolled out, it’s
still worth considering that Allen appears to be fully healthy
and the first read on most of the Chargers’ passing plays.
Mike Williams popped for two touchdowns two weeks ago with Tyrell
Williams hobbled, but both players are risky given their lack
of total targets.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: He’s listed as questionable, but
the Chargers are expecting to be without running back Melvin Gordon
again in Week 14, which should lead the way for more of backups
Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. Ekeler appears to be the better
option of the two, but he’s actually been fairly lackluster
in both of his two opportunities to get additional touches in
games where Melvin Gordon has been out. Ekeler rushed for just
21 yards on 13 carries this past week against Pittsburgh and while
he added five receptions for 22 more yards, it was not enough
to be a strong fantasy play. Jackson, meanwhile, rushed for 63
yards and a touchdown on just eight carries while also adding
a 19-yard reception. Both players might have value in this contest,
as there’s a real possibility that the Chargers get out
to a lead in this game, which would presumably mean plenty of
work for both Ekeler and Jackson. The Bengals have given up the
most fantasy points to running backs this season, including multiple
games where they’ve given up solid fantasy days to multiple
backs on the same team. Ekeler’s usage in the passing game
makes him the stronger over play, however.
Broncos at 49ers
- (Caron) Line: DEN -3.5 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: When a quarterback throws for just 151
yards and one touchdown against a horrible defense like the Bengals,
it’s hard to be excited about that player any matchup, but
Keenum could be a decent streaming option here in Week 14 against
another terrible defense - this time it’s the 49ers. San
Francisco has already given up 27 passing touchdowns this season
- more than two per game - and they’ve forced just two total
interceptions. They’re on pace to contend for forcing the
fewest passing touchdowns in a season since the NFL began tracking
the stat. That alone makes Keenum a relatively high floor option,
but we do have to be a bit concerned that he’s now without
both of his top two receivers from the start of a season.
Demaryius Thomas departed the team via trade earlier this season
and Emmanuel Sanders is now out for the season on IR. That leaves
rookie Courtland Sutton as the remaining potential fantasy contributor
in this passing game. Sutton caught four passes for 85 yards and
a touchdown this past week against the Bengals and could be in
line for double-digit targets this week against the 49ers. Tight
end Jeff Heuerman is also now on IR, so the targets should come
early and often for Sutton.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back Royce Freeman got
14 carries against the Bengals this past week, but it continues
to be fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who is lighting up the stat
sheet. Lindsay rushed for a career-high 157 rushing yards and
two touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 13, and that made back-to-back
100-yard rushing days as he also did so against the Steelers.
Lindsay is a serious contender for rookie of the year and he’s
been an incredible find in fantasy, so continue to roll him out
as a strong RB1 this week in what should be a good matchup against
the 49ers. Freeman could also be an option this week as the Broncos
are road favorites in San Francisco and could deploy an extremely
run-heavy offensive scheme yet again this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A road matchup against the Seahawks doesn’t
typically produce a QB1 fantasy day for someone with only four
games of NFL experience, but Nick Mullens made it happen in Week
13. Of course, it’s worth considering that the 49ers found
themselves down 27-3 early in the third quarter so most of his
production was in garbage time, but the 49ers could find themselves
in another garbage time situation again here in Week 14 with the
Broncos coming to town. The Denver defense remains solid and Mullens
will need to pass plenty in order to give San Francisco a chance
to compete in this one. That should benefit wide receiver Dante
Pettis who has broken out in the past two weeks, catching nine
passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns over his past two games.
Pettis is still young and full of risk, but he’s seemingly
establishing a solid rapport with Mullens, so there’s still
a possibility that he puts together another decent fantasy day.
Tight end George Kittle remains a borderline elite option at the
weak tight end position, especially against a Denver defense that
ranks in the bottom 12 in fantasy points given up to opposing
tight ends this season.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: After losing yet another running back
to injury this season, the 49ers are now expected to turn to Jeff
Wilson here in Week 14. Veteran Alfred Morris was inactive this
past week and while he might get back in the lineup now that Matt
Breida is out, it seems pretty clear that the San Francisco staff
doesn’t have much confidence in his ability. Wilson, meanwhile,
saw 15 carries this past week in the 49ers’ loss to the
Seahawks, which he turned into 61 rushing yards. But more importantly,
he was a major factor in the passing game as he caught eight passes
for 73 yards. The 49ers were behind on the scoreboard early in
the game so that’s not exactly an accurate representation
of a normal game script, but the Kyle Shanahan offense does throw
a lot to running backs, so there’s no reason to think that
Wilson won’t again see a good number of targets this week
against the Broncos. Wilson should still only be considered a
Flex option due to the lack of clarity in the offense, but he’s
a player to pick up off of waivers and potentially start if you’re
in a tough spot here in Week 14.
Lions @ Cardinals
- (Caron) Line: DET -3.0 Total: 40.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford is banged up with a bad
back, but excuses don’t make his fantasy production any
less disappointing. Stafford has thrown just two touchdown passes
over his past three games combined while throwing three interceptions.
He’s also failed to reach even 250 passing yards in each
of those three games. The Cardinals are certainly not a good team,
but if there’s one thing that they’re good at, it’s
slowing down opposing passing games. The Cardinals have given
up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this
season and it seems likely that Stafford is going to be in for
another tough game here in Week 13. The only players in the Detroit
passing game who we should be considering in typical leagues are
wide receiver Kenny Golladay and Bruce Ellington. Golladay had
a disappointing game in what should have been a good matchup against
the Rams, but he’s still the top pass catching weapon in
a depleted Detroit passing game and he’s a physical mismatch
for most teams. Cornerback Patrick Peterson will presumably be
lined up on Golladay fairly often, however, so Golladay should
be considered low-floor, high ceiling WR2. Ellington, on the other
hand, is an interesting PPR Flex option in this matchup as he’s
now caught 19 passes over his past three games. He hasn’t
done a lot with those passes, but the reception totals alone make
him a player worth considering if you’re hurting for a WR3
or Flex in PPR formats.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back Kerryon Johnson continues
to be held out of practice as of Thursday this week and it’s
becoming increasingly likely that the Lions will again have to
turn to veteran LeGarrette Blount to be their primary running
back. Blount doesn’t give you much in the passing game,
but there are very few backs in the league who are given a higher
percentage of carries near the goal line than Blount. This matchup
is intriguing as he’ll face an Arizona defense that has
given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs
this season. The other back to pay attention to in PPR formats
specifically is Theo Riddick, who remains one of the better pass-catching
backs in the league. He doesn’t do much as a runner and
he’s not likely to have a huge game, but Riddick does catch
a few passes each week and that can at least give you a few point
as a floor if you’re desperate at RB.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After failing to throw for even 150 yards
in his third straight game, Josh Rosen is not a serious fantasy
option even in what should be a decent matchup against the Lions.
Rookie wide receiver Christian Kirk leads the team in receiving
yards this season but will miss the remainder of the season after
breaking his foot this past week against the Packers. This should
theoretically lead to a higher target share for wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald, but the quality of those targets is anything
but guaranteed. Fitzgerald will again be a low-level WR2 in PPR
formats with a low ceiling, but he’s really the only player
worth looking at in this passing game. Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones
continues to be a player who is inexplicably placed relatively
high on fantasy rankings, but he has scored fewer than three PPR
fantasy points in five of his past six games. He’s completely
worthless for fantasy - you can do better.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: David Johnson’s 69 rushing yards
on 20 carries would look substantially better if he had been given
the two red zone rushing touchdowns that - for some odd reason
- went to rookie running back Chase Edmonds this past week against
the Packers. In the end, however, Johnson fell short of a double-digit
PPR fantasy day for the second time in a row and he’s now
barely holding on as an RB1 in PPR formats. We had believed that
he might finally be utilized in the passing game like he was in
2016 now that Byron Leftwich was running the offense, but after
a seven-catch performance in Week 10, Johnson has been held to
just four receptions in his past three games combined. It’s
been a frustrating season for fantasy owners of Johnson who have
been forced to play their first-round pick in most contests and
been left less than satisfied most of the time. Still, Johnson
has to be considered a low-level RB1 or at least a high-level
RB2 this week at home against a bad Detroit defense that ranks
in the bottom 10 in fantasy points given up to opposing running
backs this season. Edmonds’ touchdown vulturing is certainly
something to be mindful of, but Edmonds himself is not a serious
fantasy option until we see him get more touches on a weekly basis.
Eagles @ Cowboys
- (Katz) Line: DAL -3.5 Total: 44.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz bounced back after two dreadful
outings to exceed 300 yards and throw two touchdowns against the
Redskins last week. In fact, his game was eerily similar to what
he did last time against the Cowboys. The only difference is he
threw for about 60 more yards. The Cowboys are coming off a week
where they completely shut down the previously unstoppable Saints
offense. It seems obvious that they would carry that over to this
week, while remaining home, against a far weaker Eagles offense.
I wouldn’t be so quick to jump to that conclusion. It is
exceedingly difficult to sweep a division rival. The Eagles were
touchdown favorites when the Cowboys went into Philly and beat
them four weeks ago. Look for the Eagles to respond well here
in a game that is essentially their season on the line.
Byron Jones has been the league’s best corner this season
and while he doesn’t shadow opposing WR1s, he will be on
Alshon Jeffery more often than not. For a player already on the
fantasy roster bubble (his best line in his last five weeks is
4-48), Jeffery is a clear stay away this week. While the Cowboys
lockdown opposing top receivers, the one area where they can be
exploited is via the slot, where they allow 12.3 FPts/G. That’s
the only legitimate argument I can put forth towards starting
Golden Tate this week. Wentz will lean on Zach Ertz, who posted
an otherworldly 14-145-2 when these teams last played. I expect
the Cowboys to focus him a little more, but you’re obviously
starting Ertz.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Josh Adams is being used purely as an
early down grinder. That’s okay though. When you have a
running back posting consecutive games of 20+ carries, you can
start him with confidence. The volume Adams is receiving is unlike
anything we’ve seen from a running back during Doug Pederson’s
tenure in Philly. Adams is the favorite for goal line carries,
which supersedes the fact that only three teams have allowed fewer
rushing scores than the Cowboys’ seven. All it takes is
one short yardage plunge and Adams is an RB1 on the week given
his volume. Darren Sproles and Corey Clement were in the mix as
well last week, but neither is fantasy relevant.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott is coming off an excellent
performance against the Saints where he completed 85.71% of his
passes with no interceptions. He threw just one touchdown, but
easily should’ve had another as he missed Michael Gallup
on a wide open walk in score. Prescott had 270 yards and a touchdown
as well as a rushing score in his last game against the Eagles.
The presence of Amari Cooper has helped this passing offense,
but, most importantly, it’s helped Amari Cooper. The rejuvenated
receiver averaged just 9.48 PPR FPts/G in Oakland compared to
the 18.08 FPts/G he has averaged in Dallas. The Eagles allow 17.4
FPts/G to opposing WR1s and Cooper went 6-75 on 10 targets during
their Week 10 contest. This is a good spot for Cooper to continue
his strong efforts as the Cowboys only reliable receiving option.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints shut down Ezekiel Elliott on
the ground last week, but he made up for it by adding 60 yards
on six receptions. That was Zeke’s fifth straight game with
at least four receptions and his fifth straight game over 100
total yards. Elliott’s best rushing effort of the season
came against the Eagles where he averaged 7.95 yards on 19 carries
and scored both through the air and on the ground. The Eagles
are allowing 5.0 yards per carry, tied for the second highest
number in the league. You know what do with Zeke.
Rams @ Bears
- (Swanson) Line: LAR -3.0 Total: 51.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff and the 10-1 Los Angeles Rams
head north to take on the Chicago Bears in an NFC showdown with
significant playoff implications. The Rams offense ranks second
in the league in yards per game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs and
second in total points behind only the Chiefs.
Jared Goff is the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback on the season
with 25.9 fantasy points per game. He ranks fourth in passing
yards and sixth in passing touchdowns, with seven games of at
least 300 passing yards and two games of over 400. Needless to
say, Goff has been a fantasy stud this season, and the skill position
players in the Los Angeles passing game are must-starts in nearly
every matchup.
It will be interesting to see how Goff responds this week against
arguably the best defense the team has faced this season in cold,
wintery conditions at Soldier Field. Goff has yet to play a game
in the NFL with conditions below freezing, and the Bears boast
a defense that ranks third in total yards allowed and fourth in
points.
Goff also enters the game on the heels of a disappointing matchup
against the Lions in which he threw for a season-low 207 passing
yards and one touchdown while completing only 51.5 percent of
his passes.
The Bears are tied for fifth in sacks while ranking first in
both interceptions and pick-sixes. The Khalil Mack-led front seven
of the Bears is one of the best in the league are causing pressure
on the quarterback, and the secondary of Kyle Fuller and Eddie
Jackson.
Fantasy owners should start Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and
Josh Reynolds, but expectations should be tempered based on the
opponent and conditions of the game. Although Vegas anticipates
a high-scoring game with an over-under of 53 points, a similar
result to last week’s game against Detroit may be more likely.
A matchup to watch will be the chess match between Sean McVay
and Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. McVay loves to get
mismatches in the slot for Woods and Cooks, while safety Eddie
Jackson excels at reading the eyes of quarterbacks and picking
off passes to slot wide receivers in the middle of the field and
in the flat.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners of Todd Gurley do not need
to be told to start their stud player even in less than attractive
matchups like this week’s game against the Bears. Although
the Bears do rank 29th in points allowed to RBs, they have been
torched as of late after not allowing a rushing touchdown until
Week 10 of the regular season.
LeGarrette Blount rushed for 88 yards and two scores on Thanksgiving,
while Saquon Barkley posted 146 total yards from scrimmage in
last week’s win over Chicago at Met Life Stadium. Yes, the
Bears are still strong up front, and Akiem Hicks is arguably the
best run stopping DE in the league, but Gurley should be started
with confidence as the Rams may lean on him more than normal in
this game.
On the injury front, the Bears enter the game relatively healthy
with reserve safety Deon Bush as the only defensive player listed
on the injury report with a hamstring issue. The Rams are also
very healthy heading into the game with only Marcus Peters and
backup running back Malcolm Brown listed on the report. Peters
will play, but Brown is out with a collarbone injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky practiced on Thursday,
putting him on track to play for the first time since Week 11
against Minnesota when he injured his throwing shoulder. The Bears
won one of the two games started in Trubisky’s absence,
with journeyman Chase Daniels filling in at quarterback.
The return of Trubisky is excellent news for a wide receiving
corps that struggled with Daniels under center. Only Anthony Miller
reached the end zone (on a pass from Tarik Cohen), and no wide
receiver came close to 100 receiving yards against Detroit or
the Giants.
A matchup to watch in this game will get cornerback Aqib Talib
against Allen Robinson on the outside. The team slowly worked
Talib back into game action last week with 36.1% of the snap counts
against the Lions. With another full week of practice under his
belt and a game to get him back into form, look for Talib to cover
Robinson and play closer to 70% of the snaps.
Tight End Trey Burton has disappeared over the past six games
after posting a season-high nine catches for 126 yards and a touchdown
against the Patriots. With zero catches on one target against
the Giants, a team that has given up the most points to tight
ends for the past three seasons, it is hard to trust Burton against
the Rams.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Back Thoughts: Owners who drafted Jordan Howard are likely
well out of playoff contention, making his prospects for this
game a moot point for most readers. Howard’s 8.5 fantasy
points per game rank 34th in the league and the former darling
of the fantasy community has yet to reach 100 yards rushing on
the season. The promising start of five catches for 25 yards did
not continue throughout the season with Tarik Cohen earning the
majority of work in the passing game.
Although it may be a moot point, don’t be surprised to
see head coach Matt Nagy try to run the ball early and often against
a Rams defense that can be beaten on the ground. Running the ball
not only helps the Bears keep the ball out of the hands of the
potent Rams offense, but it also mitigates possible turnovers
from Trubisky in the passing game, and the number of throws Trubisky
will need to make on his sore shoulder.
Of course, game script will dictate whether or not Howard will
get to 20 touches, but it would not surprise me to see him finish
with 20 carries for 80 yards and a score on Sunday.
Tarik Cohen will also be active in the ground game and is the
better option to start between the two Chicago running backs.
If the game gets out of hand and the Bears are chasing points,
Cohen could be a top PPR play at the running back position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A disappointing fantasy day for the Minnesota
passing game had fantasy owners throwing up their hands in frustration
this past week in what should have been a good matchup against
a bad Patriots pass defense. It’s worth noting, however,
that wide receiver Stefon Diggs was clearly not fully healthy,
which allowed the Patriots to key in on fellow wideout Adam Thielen.
Thielen still turned in a respectable fantasy day due to the touchdown
he scored, but his 28-yard fantasy day was his second-lowest of
the season and only his third non-100 yard game of the season.
This week the Vikings passing game has a tough matchup against
the Seahawks in Seattle, who have been good for most of the season.
They did give up a 400-yard day to San Francisco’s Nick
Mullens this past week, but the majority of that production was
given up after the game was already out of reach. Minnesota figures
to be more competitive as they know they’ll be battling
the Seahawks for an NFC wild card playoff spot and the result
of this game could very well be the determining factor on which
one of these teams makes it in.
Cousins himself isn’t a QB1, but he’s focusing so
much of his attention on Thielen and Diggs that both of them are
solid fantasy options, presuming that Diggs is able to suit up.
Diggs won’t be at full strength, but he should be healthier
this week, which makes him a solid WR2 while Thielen is a WR1.
Tight end Kyle Rudolph is in the conversation as a TE1, but he
- like so many others - is a touchdown-or-bust type of player.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook appears to be back and relatively
healthy as he’s rushed for 84 yards this past week in the
Vikings’ loss to the Patriots. The game script didn’t
allow for him to be utilized much as a runner as the Vikings were
down on the scoreboard for most of the game, but Cook also contributed
eight receptions for 22 yards as a receiver. Cook has quietly
caught at least three passes in all but one of the games he’s
played in this season, so he’s actually a better PPR player
than he might be given credit for even if he doesn’t contribute
huge yardage as a receiver. This week he’ll face a Seattle
defense that has given up three 100-yard rushing days to individual
running backs in three of their past five contests. The Seahawks
aren’t a bad run defense, but the Vikings might see this
recent trend and choose to feed Cook a little more heavily than
they have in recent weeks.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but Seahawks quarterback
Russell Wilson is quietly salvaging what was a mediocre first
half of the fantasy season. Wilson has now thrown multiple touchdowns
in all but one game including a season-high four scores this past
week against the 49ers. It’s bizarre to see Wilson be so
unwilling to run the ball, but his incredible touchdown rate has
kept him as a QB1 most weeks.
The player who continues to benefit most from this is Tyler Lockett
who has now - astonishingly - caught nine touchdowns on the season
on just 44 catches. The touchdown rate seemingly has to correct
itself which makes Lockett difficult to trust, but those who have
been willing to believe have been very happy with their results.
Rookie wide receiver David Moore was held catchless this past
week, which really highlights his downside as the Seahawks got
out to an early lead and really did not need to pass much to stay
ahead. Even Doug Baldwin, who had caught 17 passes in his previous
three games, was held to just two catches against the 49ers. He
did score a touchdown, though, which saved his fantasy day and
he continues to be a solid option, even in a difficult matchup
like the one he’ll see against the Vikings here in Week
14. Minnesota has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to
opposing wide receivers this season, so none of the Seahawks pass
catchers are particularly intriguing as individuals, even though
Wilson himself is still worth consideration as a low-end QB1.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: A blowout win over the 49ers meant that
Chris Carson actually didn’t get as many carries as he normally
would in a more competitive game, as the Seahawks chose to give
other backs some carries in an effort to maintain Carson for the
final playoff stretch. Carson did still carry the ball 13 times
for 69 yards while adding a season-high 39 yards as a receiver,
however, so fantasy owners weren’t too disappointed with
the overall results.
This week Carson and the Seahawks should have a more competitive
matchup as they’ll face the Vikings who are also in the
NFC playoff hunt. This should mean a heavier workload for Carson
and less for backups Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. He’s
dealing with a finger injury, but a 20-touch day against the Vikings
is not out of the question. Minnesota ranks in the top-10 in fewest
fantasy points given up to opposing running backs this season,
though, so Carson’s upside is a bit capped and he’s
more of a mid-to-low-level RB2 this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars passing game was virtually
non-existent last week with Cody Kessler drawing his first start.
Kessler threw for 150 yards without any touchdowns or interceptions
on 24 pass attempts. He also ran for 28 yards, but makes an awful
option due to lack of upside. He also gets a tough matchup against
the Titans, who are allowing only 221.0 passing yards per game
this season. They have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, while recording
only seven interceptions and allow the 4th fewest fantasy points
to quarterbacks . 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars have featured one of the best
passing defenses in the NFL this season, holding Andrew Luck and
the Colts to a goose egg last week. On the season, they are allowing
207.0 passing yards per game and have allowed only 15 passing
touchdowns, while recording nine interceptions. Marcus Mariota
has been heating up recently, throwing two touchdowns in four
of his last five games. He was injured in his first matchup against
the Jaguars and threw for only 100 yards on 18 attempts but added
51 yards on the ground. This is a terrible matchup for Mariota
and he should be avoided unless you’re in a terrible spot
this week. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens passing game has taken a hit
since Lamar Jackson took over as the quarterback, but the fantasy
production from the quarterback position has been great. Jackson
brings a unique skill that has almost never been in the NFL. Yes,
he still has plenty to work on as a pure passer, particularly
with his footwork and throwing mechanics, but what he is capable
of doing with his legs is simply incredible - and it’s why
he’s a serious contender to be a top 12 quarterback each
and every week, regardless of matchup. Jackson has thrown for
just 453 yards and one touchdown with three interceptions in his
three starts, but he’s added 265 yards and two touchdowns
as a runner in those games. That translates to over 15 fantasy
points per game - and remember that this is about his floor as
a passer. We truly haven’t seen his ceiling. Receivers John
Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead are all players who should
probably be on your bench until we see Jackson lock in on one
of them, but Jackson himself has a great matchup against a Kansas
City defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to
opposing quarterbacks so far this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s easy to look at the Chiefs’
matchup against the Ravens and be worried, but it’s important
to not over-emphasize the opposition when talking about elite
offenses. The Chiefs have been on a historic pace this season,
led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes who should again be considered
a strong QB1 play this week even though the Ravens have given
up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
this season. Tight end Travis Kelce, who scored twice this past
week, is again one of the top two or three options on the board
at the position and should be deployed without concern. Tyreek
Hill, who was held to just one catch for 13 yards against the
Raiders, is the player who is probably most concerning heading
into this matchup due to his lack of production this past week.
Hill has shown incredible upside at times this season, but these
types of games are part of what you have to deal with sometimes
when you own a big time down-field playmaker like Hill. There
will be a lot of big games, but sometimes it just doesn’t
happen. Hill might get benched by over-reactionary fantasy owners,
but don’t fall into that trap. Yes, this is a difficult
matchup, but Hill still saw plenty of deep targets last week and
should be in line for more of that this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Darnold is back this week and it’s
just in time to face the league’s top ranked pass defense.
The Bills allow a league low 187 yards per game through the air.
Darnold missed the debacle that was the Jets last contest with
the Bills where they lost 41-10. Darnold has completed an uninspiring
55% of his throws this season and when we last saw him in Week
9, he was throwing four picks and no touchdowns. Darnold will
have Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson available this week, but
neither is a reliable fantasy option. Chris Herndon has emerged
into a worthwhile TE streamer, but the Bills are second in the
league in covering the TE. This is a bad spot on the road and
one in which you should avoid all Jets.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As much as I’d like to tell you
how terrible of a quarterback Josh Allen is, for fantasy purposes,
all we care about is production. Allen can’t throw a football,
but he’s rushed for 135 and 99 yards in each of his last
two games. It seems absurd that a QB with more interceptions (7)
than touchdowns (5) is somehow fantasy viable, but rushing numbers
are a cheat code. From a passing department, the Bills receiving
corps actually got a slight boost heading into this week via addition
by the subtraction of Kelvin Benjamin. Zay Jones is a sneaky streaming
option for the desperate. The Jets are about average against opposing
WR1s, but volume is always a concern with Bills pass catchers
as Sean McDermott would prefer to have Allen throw as little as
possible.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton enters Sunday’s fantasy
playoff game against the Browns as the No.3 ranked quarterback
with 26.2 fantasy points per game. Newton has just two games of
fewer than 20 fantasy points and four games, including his three-touchdown
game against the Lions Week 11, of over 30 fantasy points. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Baker Mayfield looks to be well worth
the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft after posting the
eighth-most fantasy points over the past five weeks, including
a four-touchdown day against the Bengals Week 12. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck is coming off of a tough matchup
against the Jaguars, but he had thrown at least three touchdowns
in each of his last eight games prior to that. On the season,
he’s averaging 280.0 yards and 2.7 touchdowns on 40.1 pass
attempts per game. He’ll likely be forced to throw the ball
40+ in a competitive game this weekend, as well. He gets a much
better matchup against the Texans, who are allowing 250.0 passing
yards per game. They have allowed 20 passing touchdowns with 12
interceptions in 2018, as well. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson has looked outstanding
this season, averaging 252.6 yards and 1.8 touchdowns on 30.3
pass attempts per game. He has also totaled 375 yards and two
touchdowns on the ground through 12 games. He gets somewhat of
a tough matchup against the Colts, who have quietly featured a
solid pass defense. On the season, they are allowing only 244.0
passing yards per game. They have also held their opponents to
only 18 touchdowns, while recording 11 interceptions. With that
being said, Watson threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns, while
adding 41 yards and one touchdown on the ground against the Colts
in their only matchup this season. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: After his 281-yard, two touchdown performance
this past week against the Chargers, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
now ranks second in the league in fantasy points, trailing only
behind Patrick Mahomes. 26 touchdown passes with 13 interceptions
doesn’t sound overly impressive, but Roethlisberger is also
on pace for 5,260 yards passing, which would be the third-most
passing yards in a single season in NFL history. It all starts
with wide receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster who
are both solid fantasy WR1’s this season and should be again
this week against a bad Raiders defense that has given up 28 passing
touchdowns this season. Oakland has actually been bad enough that
some opposing teams have ended up passing less than they normally
would due to game script, but Roethlisberger and his pass catching
weapons. Tight end Vance McDonald is also a player to keep an
eye on as he’ll be against a Raiders defense that has given
up more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any team this
season. McDonald has caught at least three passes in seven straight
games and makes for a high-floor option in this game. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Very few expected that the Raiders would
even have a chance against the Chiefs, but Derek Carr put the
team on his back and really put together an impressive second
half, but ultimately fell short. Still, Carr threw for 285 yards
and three scores while avoiding turning the ball over. The biggest
beneficiary of Carr’s nice fantasy day was tight end Jared
Cook, who again led the team with 100 receiving yards on seven
catches with a touchdown. It was Cook’s third 100-yard day
of the season as he continues to produce solid TE1 numbers in
a season where the position has been pretty bad overall. Cook
has now scored in three straight games and has to be considered
a solid TE1 again this week against the Steelers. The other player
who seemingly came out of nowhere to have a big fantasy day was
Jordy Nelson, who caught all 10 of his targets for 97 yards. It
was his first catch since Week 9 and Nelson has seemingly re-established
himself as the WR1 in Oakland. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The highlight of Tom Brady’s performance
last week against the Vikings was his 1,000th career rushing yard.
While that’s fun and all, it doesn’t translate to
fantasy success. Brady played well overall, but threw just one
touchdown, bringing his last five game total up to a whopping
four. Josh Gordon caught it, but he only saw three targets. Julian
Edelman had an abysmal game, catching just three of his eight
targets, but the fact that he saw eight targets keeps him in the
fantasy conversation. Rob Gronkowski is just another TE and one
you should absolutely bench if you have a better option. Do not
get attached the name value in Gronk – he’s not Gronk
anymore – he’s just Rob. Somehow, the Dolphins are
second in the league with 19 interceptions, but their 23 passing
touchdowns allowed are in the bottom third of the league. Despite
the overall favorable matchup, this is a game where the Patriots
should experience positive game script and lean on the ground
game, making Edelman the only clear starter from this passing
attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Completing 16 of 24 passes is good. Throwing
three touchdowns is good. Managing only 137 passing yards is…interesting?
Ryan Tannehill is absolutely not going to be your starting QB
in the first week of the fantasy playoffs and you are also not
touching any of his receiving options. DeVante Parker caught a
touchdown last week with Danny Amendola out. Amendola has been
limited in practice this week with a knee injury but is expected
to play. Kenny Stills also caught a touchdown, but he only saw
six targets. There should be more volume in a game against the
Patriots, who like Miami, have also allowed 23 passing touchdowns,
but not enough to make Stills someone you can actually start.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers have featured one of the
worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, allowing 274.0 yards
per game. They have also allowed a league-high 28 passing touchdowns,
while recording only seven interceptions. Drew Brees, on the other
hand, has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season,
averaging 271.8 yards and 2.5 touchdowns on 32.0 pass attempts
per game. In their only matchup this season, Brees threw for 439
yards and three touchdowns. The only real concern in this game
is a blowout, but New Orleans could be looking to score as many
points as possible as they look to redeem one of their only two
losses on the season. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints are another team that has struggled
against the pass this season. They’re currently allowed
279.0 passing yards per game, while also allowing 22 touchdowns.
Furthermore, they have only recorded 10 interceptions. Jameis
Winston will draw the start again this week, and he has been an
outstanding fantasy option when on the field. Through seven games
(although all weren’t full games), he’s averaging
277.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns on 33.1 pass attempts per game.
He’s also averaging 28.1 yards per game on the ground this
season. He has thrown for two touchdowns in each of his last three
games, and he will likely be playing from behind the majority
of this game. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Are we sure the Giants aren’t better
off just putting Odell Beckham Jr. at quarterback? The Giants
scored a home win against the Bears last week where Beckham threw
his second touchdown of the season. He also caught Eli Manning’s
only touchdown pass. Despite the win, the clock has to be ticking
on Manning as he turned in his worst performance of the season
with lows in yardage (170), completion percentage (54.29%), and
yards per attempt (4.86). Thankfully, Beckham has been largely
unaffected. He has seen at least nine targets in all but one game
this season and has at least 85 receiving yards or a touchdown
in six straight games. The Redskins allow 88.5 yards per game
to opposing WR1s. As for the rest of the Giants passing attack,
you can ignore Sterling Shepard and Rhett Ellison as neither is
seeing enough volume to be fantasy viable. It is also worth noting
that Evan Engram is poised to return from his hamstring injury
this week, where he will presumably continue to operate as the
third stringer behind Ellison and Scott Simonson. He belongs on
waiver wires.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There’s really not much to say about
the Redskins passing attack. They are currently trotting out Mark
Sanchez at quarterback. Between Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder,
and Jordan Reed, none of them have been inspiring options. Now
down to a third string quarterback, you can safely ignore this
entire passing attack. For what it’s worth, the Giants have
actually allowed just 17 passing touchdowns on the season, just
two more than the league leading 15 allowed by the Vikings and
Jaguars. Even if Alex Smith or Colt McCoy were healthy, you wouldn’t
be starting anyone on this team.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan threw for just under 5000 yards
and a career-high 37 passing touchdowns in his 2016 MVP season.
The former first-round pick from Boston College posted career
marks in completion percentage and interceptions while leading
the Falcons to the Super Bowl.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A shocking loss at home to the Arizona
Cardinals proved to be the final straw as the Packers front office
fired long-time head coach Mike McCarthy. Green Bay’s offense
looks like an old NES compared to the innovative and creative
PS4 offenses run by Matt Nagy, Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, and Sean
McVay.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Andy Dalton and A.J. Green both on
IR, the Bengals passing game is simply not setup to be much of
a fantasy force here in Week 14. The only player who we should
be real excited about is slot receiver Tyler Boyd who has continued
his breakout season even with Jeff Driskel at quarterback. Boyd’s
69 receptions, 938 yards and six touchdowns all lead the Bengals
and he’s caught 13 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown
over his past two games when Driskel has been passing him the
ball.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off of a huge win on the road against
the Steelers, Philip Rivers and the Chargers will have a much
easier task this week at home against the Bengals. The Bengals
have been horrible across the board on defense this season, but
their pass defense ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to
opposing quarterbacks as they’ve already given up 26 passing
touchdowns on the season along with nearly 290 passing yards per
game. Rivers has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in every
game this season and this is certainly a matchup that we should
be excited about him doing that again in. He’s a strong
QB1 play this week with the upside to be the top scoring quarterback
if the Chargers decide to pass near the goal line with Melvin
Gordon expected to be out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When a quarterback throws for just 151
yards and one touchdown against a horrible defense like the Bengals,
it’s hard to be excited about that player any matchup, but
Keenum could be a decent streaming option here in Week 14 against
another terrible defense - this time it’s the 49ers. San
Francisco has already given up 27 passing touchdowns this season
- more than two per game - and they’ve forced just two total
interceptions. They’re on pace to contend for forcing the
fewest passing touchdowns in a season since the NFL began tracking
the stat. That alone makes Keenum a relatively high floor option,
but we do have to be a bit concerned that he’s now without
both of his top two receivers from the start of a season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A road matchup against the Seahawks doesn’t
typically produce a QB1 fantasy day for someone with only four
games of NFL experience, but Nick Mullens made it happen in Week
13. Of course, it’s worth considering that the 49ers found
themselves down 27-3 early in the third quarter so most of his
production was in garbage time, but the 49ers could find themselves
in another garbage time situation again here in Week 14 with the
Broncos coming to town. The Denver defense remains solid and Mullens
will need to pass plenty in order to give San Francisco a chance
to compete in this one. That should benefit wide receiver Dante
Pettis who has broken out in the past two weeks, catching nine
passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns over his past two games.
Pettis is still young and full of risk, but he’s seemingly
establishing a solid rapport with Mullens, so there’s still
a possibility that he puts together another decent fantasy day.
Tight end George Kittle remains a borderline elite option at the
weak tight end position, especially against a Denver defense that
ranks in the bottom 12 in fantasy points given up to opposing
tight ends this season. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford is banged up with a bad
back, but excuses don’t make his fantasy production any
less disappointing. Stafford has thrown just two touchdown passes
over his past three games combined while throwing three interceptions.
He’s also failed to reach even 250 passing yards in each
of those three games. The Cardinals are certainly not a good team,
but if there’s one thing that they’re good at, it’s
slowing down opposing passing games. The Cardinals have given
up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this
season and it seems likely that Stafford is going to be in for
another tough game here in Week 13. The only players in the Detroit
passing game who we should be considering in typical leagues are
wide receiver Kenny Golladay and Bruce Ellington. Golladay had
a disappointing game in what should have been a good matchup against
the Rams, but he’s still the top pass catching weapon in
a depleted Detroit passing game and he’s a physical mismatch
for most teams. Cornerback Patrick Peterson will presumably be
lined up on Golladay fairly often, however, so Golladay should
be considered low-floor, high ceiling WR2. Ellington, on the other
hand, is an interesting PPR Flex option in this matchup as he’s
now caught 19 passes over his past three games. He hasn’t
done a lot with those passes, but the reception totals alone make
him a player worth considering if you’re hurting for a WR3
or Flex in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After failing to throw for even 150 yards
in his third straight game, Josh Rosen is not a serious fantasy
option even in what should be a decent matchup against the Lions.
Rookie wide receiver Christian Kirk leads the team in receiving
yards this season but will miss the remainder of the season after
breaking his foot this past week against the Packers. This should
theoretically lead to a higher target share for wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald, but the quality of those targets is anything
but guaranteed. Fitzgerald will again be a low-level WR2 in PPR
formats with a low ceiling, but he’s really the only player
worth looking at in this passing game. Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones
continues to be a player who is inexplicably placed relatively
high on fantasy rankings, but he has scored fewer than three PPR
fantasy points in five of his past six games. He’s completely
worthless for fantasy - you can do better. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz bounced back after two dreadful
outings to exceed 300 yards and throw two touchdowns against the
Redskins last week. In fact, his game was eerily similar to what
he did last time against the Cowboys. The only difference is he
threw for about 60 more yards. The Cowboys are coming off a week
where they completely shut down the previously unstoppable Saints
offense. It seems obvious that they would carry that over to this
week, while remaining home, against a far weaker Eagles offense.
I wouldn’t be so quick to jump to that conclusion. It is
exceedingly difficult to sweep a division rival. The Eagles were
touchdown favorites when the Cowboys went into Philly and beat
them four weeks ago. Look for the Eagles to respond well here
in a game that is essentially their season on the line.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott is coming off an excellent
performance against the Saints where he completed 85.71% of his
passes with no interceptions. He threw just one touchdown, but
easily should’ve had another as he missed Michael Gallup
on a wide open walk in score. Prescott had 270 yards and a touchdown
as well as a rushing score in his last game against the Eagles.
The presence of Amari Cooper has helped this passing offense,
but, most importantly, it’s helped Amari Cooper. The rejuvenated
receiver averaged just 9.48 PPR FPts/G in Oakland compared to
the 18.08 FPts/G he has averaged in Dallas. The Eagles allow 17.4
FPts/G to opposing WR1s and Cooper went 6-75 on 10 targets during
their Week 10 contest. This is a good spot for Cooper to continue
his strong efforts as the Cowboys only reliable receiving option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff and the 10-1 Los Angeles Rams
head north to take on the Chicago Bears in an NFC showdown with
significant playoff implications. The Rams offense ranks second
in the league in yards per game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs and
second in total points behind only the Chiefs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky practiced on Thursday,
putting him on track to play for the first time since Week 11
against Minnesota when he injured his throwing shoulder. The Bears
won one of the two games started in Trubisky’s absence,
with journeyman Chase Daniels filling in at quarterback.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A disappointing fantasy day for the Minnesota
passing game had fantasy owners throwing up their hands in frustration
this past week in what should have been a good matchup against
a bad Patriots pass defense. It’s worth noting, however,
that wide receiver Stefon Diggs was clearly not fully healthy,
which allowed the Patriots to key in on fellow wideout Adam Thielen.
Thielen still turned in a respectable fantasy day due to the touchdown
he scored, but his 28-yard fantasy day was his second-lowest of
the season and only his third non-100 yard game of the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but Seahawks quarterback
Russell Wilson is quietly salvaging what was a mediocre first
half of the fantasy season. Wilson has now thrown multiple touchdowns
in all but one game including a season-high four scores this past
week against the 49ers. It’s bizarre to see Wilson be so
unwilling to run the ball, but his incredible touchdown rate has
kept him as a QB1 most weeks.
