Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense had
their way with the hapless Bills in a 47-3 blowout win over Buffalo
that included six total touchdowns by the Baltimore offense, including
three passing TDs from Flacco.
The fact that the Bills were unable to do anything on offense
enabled offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg free reign to call
whatever plays he wanted on offense. Nine different Raven players
caught a pass in the game from Flacco, led by Willie Snead with
four catches for 49 yards and a touchdown. Fellow free agent additions
John Brown and Michael Crabtree each joined Snead with a receiving
touchdown, while tight ends Nick Boyle, Mark Andrews, and Maxx
Williams each caught three passes. If one of the three tight ends
emerges as the primary pass-catching option at the position ,
they will garner serious consideration for fantasy purposes, but
as it stands, none of them is worthy of a start if the Ravens
continue to spread around the targets.
Flacco and the Ravens passing game should continue to find success
moving the ball in the air this week against a Bengals defense
that gave up 319 passing yards and two passing touchdowns to Andrew
Luck and the Colts. Although Luck did throw an errant pass into
double coverage of Jack Doyle, the Bengals were more than susceptible
to the pass.
A matchup to watch is this game will be the trio of tight ends
for the Ravens against the Bengals linebacking corp. Doyle and
Eric Ebron combined to catch 11 balls for 111 yards and score
against Cincinnati. In addition, look for Mornhinweg to take out
a page in the Colts playbook by featuring running backs Alex Collins
and Buck Allen in the passing game. Rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan
Wilkins combined to catch 10 passes for 54 yards Week 1.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Alex Collins owners were
undoubtedly frustrated to see their fantasy running back post
a pedestrian seven rushes for 17 yards, as Kenneth Dixon led all
Baltimore ball carriers with 13 rushes. Although Collins did salvage
a rushing touchdown, his limited volume and lost fumble negated
his value. To make matters worse for Collins owners, rookie quarterback
Lamar Jackson also received seven rushing attempts for 39 yards,
indicating that the first round pick will be used more as a running
threat than initially thought.
A knee injury sustained late in the game will likely keep Dixon
out of the lineup for the next few weeks, presumably opening the
door for Collins to receive a larger share of rushing attempts.
Also, it seems reasonable to assume that Dixon would have received
more volume had the game script not been blown out of proportion
due to the pathetic Bills offense struggling to do anything.
The Bengals allowed a combined 12.2 fantasy points to the trio
of Hines, Wilkins, and Christine Michael, as the Colts did the
majority of damage through the air against Cincinnati. But those
stats should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Bengals dominated
the line of scrimmage against a young Colts offensive line. While
certainly talented, Andrew Billings, Gino Atkins, and Carlos Dunlap
may find it more challenging to manhandle guard Marshal Yanda
and center Matt Skura.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton completed 21-of-28 passes
for 244 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception for 21
fantasy points in a 34-23 road victory over the Colts on Sunday.
A.J. Green led all receivers with six catches for 92 yards and
a touchdown, while 2017 first round pick John Ross caught his
lone target for a three-yard touchdown.
The revamped offensive line, including left tackle Cordy Glenn,
gave Dalton ample time to survey the field and pick apart the
Indianapolis secondary. The return of Tyler Eifert was a nice
addition to the Bengals offense, as the former Notre Dame star
caught three catches for 44 yards. When healthy, Eifert is a difference-making
weapon in the offense and adds another viable red zone threat
outside of Green.
Second-year running back Joe Mixon stole the show on the ground
and in the air with 149 total yards and a score. The preseason
narrative of Mixon’s receiving volume eating into the value
of Giovani Bernard proved to be correct, with Gio catching just
one pass for 11 yards.
Dalton and the Cincinnati passing game will find it to be much
tougher sledding this Thursday against a Baltimore unit that gave
up just 98 yards and no scores to Buffalo last weeks. Although
the Bengal offense is certainly more potent than the Bills, Dalton’s
history against his division rival has been less than stellar.
The Red Rifle completed just 58% of his passes vs. Baltimore last
season, with three touchdowns and four interceptions.
On the injury front, the Bengals enter Week 2 reasonably healthy,
with reserve wide receiver Cody Core as the only offensive player
listed on the team’s injury report with a sore back.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon was brilliant
against the Colts last week flashing the size and speed combination
few possess in the NFL on his 27-yard TD scamper. Beyond his excellent
power and quickness, Mixon is a skilled pass-catching running
back who is primed to post at least 50 catches this season out
of the backfield.
Mixon’s emergence as an elite receiving option drastically
limits Bernard’s value, with Mixon garnering 44 of the team’s
55 snaps. Bernard is nothing more than a flex play in the deepest
of leagues and may be dropped in standard formats.
The defensive stats of the Ravens last week are skewed why the
ineptitude of the Bills offense, so relying on them in this game
preview is pointless. If 2017 is any indication, the best way
to beat the Ravens defense is on the ground and not the air. Baltimore
allowed the 11th-most points to opposing running backs last season
while allowing the fewest and second-fewest points to wide receivers
and quarterbacks respectively.
Mixon and Bernard combined for 148 yards on 28 carries in Week
17’s road victory by the Bengals that cost Baltimore the
final Wild Card slot in the AFC playoffs. There is no doubt that
Marvin Lewis and the Bengals coaching staff will once again lean
on the ground game in what could be a hard-fought divisional tilt
on Thursday Night.
There are no injuries of note on the defensive side for Baltimore,
but starting cornerback Jimmy Smith will miss Thursday’s
game and the next two contests for violating the league’s
conduct policy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton only threw for 161 yards last
week, but he added 58 yards and one touchdown on the ground, as
well. He’ll face off against the Atlanta Falcons, who will
be without S Keanu Neal in their secondary. Newton’s rushing
always gives him a high floor, but he will see a boost from Neal’s
absence. It’s important to note that Newton is averaging
only 208 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game against
Atlanta throughout his career.
Devin Funchess and Jarius Wright led the Panthers wide receivers
in target share (19.2%) last week. Neither found much success,
though, combining for 12.4 fantasy points. D.J. Moore failed to
record any targets, making the first round pick a non-factor at
this point in the season. Greg Olsen (foot) has been ruled out
for the next few weeks, meaning Ian Thomas will be Carolina’s
main tight end moving forward. He caught both of his targets last
week, but only recorded four yards. While Funchess should see
a boost in opportunity with Olsen out, It’s difficult to
trust anyone else in this passing attack.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey is the only running
back to consider in Carolina. He gets a matchup against Atlanta,
who allowed the Eagles to run for 113 yards and two touchdowns
last week. McCaffrey also averaging 5.0 rushing yards per attempt,
but only saw 10 attempts last week. Most importantly, McCaffrey
saw a 34.6% target share, leading the Panthers with nine targets.
Atlanta had trouble containing Darren Sproles out of the backfield
last week and have historically given up receiving yards to running
backs. In addition, they could struggle to slow down Carolina’s
rushing attack with LB Deion Jones injured for the season.
Value Meter:
QB1: Cam Newton
RB1: Christian McCaffrey
Flex: Devin Funchess
Bench: D.J. Moore
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carolina featured one of the best pass
defenses in the NFL last week, but their easy matchup against
the Dallas Cowboys skew their numbers a bit. Matt Ryan is coming
off of a game, in which he attempted 43 passes and has found quite
a bit of success against Carolina throughout his career, averaging
274 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. His last
four stat lines against the Panthers:
Julio Jones was Ryan’s top receiver last Thursday, seeing
19 targets, or a 44% target share. He also led the league with
three red zone targets last week. Jones also gets a matchup against
DB Donte Jackson, who struggled in limited snaps last week. Surprisingly,
Mohamed Sanu was the only other receiver to see a target for Atlanta
last week. He’s an efficient player, posting a 71% catch
rate since joining the Falcons and Sanu is a player that can contribute
on limited opportunities. Austin Hooper is the clear-cut top tight
end in this offense, but he has been limited in practice this
week with a knee injury.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons feature a two-headed monster
at running back. Devonta Freeman (knee) only saw nine touches
last week, and is questionable for this game. If he’s ruled
out, Tevin Coleman will carry the workload and be a solid RB2.
In three games last season with Freeman out, Coleman racked up
21, 21, and 19 touches. He only totaled 45 yards last week, but
he also found the end zone. Carolina allowed Dallas to average
4.3 yards per carry last week, and Atlanta’s backfield could
be in for a big day. Keep an eye on Freeman’s status this
weekend.
Value Meter:
QB2: Matt Ryan
RB2: Tevin Coleman (RB1 if Freeman sits)
WR1: Julio Jones (elite)
Flex: Devonta Freeman (RB2 if healthy)
Flex: Mohamed Sanu
Prediction: Panthers 24, Falcons 20
Browns @ Saints
- (Bales) Line: NO -9.5 Total: 49.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor struggled to complete 15
passes on 40 attempts last week, but that isn’t surprising,
as the weather conditions were far from ideal. He also led the
team with 77 yards and one touchdown on the ground. He’ll
continue to make for a high upside option, especially against
a team that allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 417 yard and
four touchdowns, while also adding 36 yards and one touchdown
on the ground.
Jarvis Landry was the top receiver for Cleveland in Week 1, as
he was targeted 15 times. Overall, he posted a 7/106 line on those
targets. The Browns have suggested that they are looking to get
Josh Gordon more involved in the offense. DeSean Jackson burned
the Saints for a 5/146/2 line last week, and Gordon also features
plenty of speed. The only concern is an expected shadow by Marshon
Lattimore, who has allowed only a 60% catch rate. David Njoku
is expected to enjoy a breakout season, and saw seven targets
last week, which was the second highest on the team. He’ll
continue to make a high upside touchdown threat.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde was the lead
running back for the Browns in Week 1, while Duke Johnson is playing
more of a receiving role. Hyde totaled 22 carries for 62 yards
and one touchdown but wasn’t featured much in the passing
game. He only recorded one reception, but he saw six targets on
top of five rushing attempts. The Saints looked decent against
the run last week, but the Bucs enjoyed a stellar day through
the air leaving little need to test the Saints run defense. If
we assume the Saints will be playing from ahead in this game,
it might script Hyde out of the offense and favor Duke Johnson,
making Hyde somewhat touchdown dependent to return RB2 value.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees looked to be back in form last
week, completing 82.2% of his passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns
against the Buccaneers. He’ll get a decent matchup this
week against the Browns who have a rising defense, but their numbers
last week were a bit inflated by the weather. That will not be
the case this week, as this game will take place in a dome, where
Brees has been at his best.
Michael Thomas is the clear-cut WR1 for the Saints, recording
17 targets or a 38% target share last week. He posted an elite
16/180/1 line, as well. There have been rumors that Denzel Ward
could shadow Thomas, and that would be a difficult matchup if
that is the case. Ted Ginn Jr. is the other receiver that did
damage last week, recording five receptions for 68 yards and one
touchdown. Ben Watson also posted decent numbers, but it’s
clear that the Saints have two top offensive weapons, while Ginn
is cleaning up the scraps.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints got into a shootout last week,
and Alvin Kamara only saw eight carries. He turned those carries
into 29 yards and two touchdowns, maintaining his elite fantasy
points efficiency from last season. He also posted an elite 9/112/1
line on 12 targets, which was the second most on the team. Last
week, Cleveland allowed James Conner to record 192 yards and two
touchdowns on 36 touches. Kamara is significantly more talented
than Conner, and could post elite numbers against Cleveland.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson struggled with pressure
last week. He completed only 50% of his passes for 176 yards,
one touchdown, and one interception. He also wasn’t scared
to run - 40 yards - in his first game back from a major knee injury.
The Titans somewhat struggled to get a pass rush against the Dolphins,
but they have a plethora of talented pass rushers that could slow
down Watson this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Keke Coutee are all questionable
after being limited participants in practice. Hopkins saw a 32%
target share last week - 11 targets - and that could increase
throughout the season. He’s one of the most consistent receivers
in the NFL. If Will Fuller (hamstring) is back, he should slide
into Bruce Ellington’s role, who saw eight targets last
week. Fuller is a significantly more talented receiver, and Ellington
turned those targets into 13.7 fantasy points. Tennessee allowed
the Miami to average 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and these receivers
can do some damage if Watson can deal with the pressure.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller saw a workhorse role last
week, totaling 72.4% of the running back touches. He totaled 98
yards on 20 carries, and would have had a great fantasy week if
Alfred Blue didn’t vulture a one-yard touchdown. That likely
will not be the case throughout the season, as Miller has proven
he can be a three-down back. Essentially, Blue was bailed out
by a touchdown, while Miller proved that he comes with more than
enough value to be considered. The Titans kept the Dolphins running
backs out of the endzone last week, holding Kenyan Drake and Frank
Gore to 109 yards on the ground. The matchup for Miller isn’t
daunting and fantasy owners should feel secure rolling him out
as an RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota (elbow) flashed very little
upside in his first game, throwing for only 103 yards and two
interceptions before being injured. He has rushing potential,
but it’s difficult to get passed his 3.6 fantasy point game
last week. Mariota gets a plus matchup against the Texans, though,
who allowed 267 passing yards and three touchdowns to the Patriots.
Houston also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks last season
allowing the 10th most fantasy points to the position.
Corey Davis was a target hog during the first week, recording
six receptions for 62 yards on 13 targets. The next closest wide
receiver saw only three targets. TE Delanie Walker saw seven targets,
but he is injured, and his role will shift to Jonnu Smith. The
other receivers should also see a boost, as it’s somewhat
unlikely that Smith sees nearly double digit targets on a weekly
basis. Tajae Sharpe saw three targets last week, while Taywan
Taylor only saw one. Rishard Matthews (knee) failed to record
a target last week, but Tennessee has stated that his role will
grow as the season progresses. Overall, the receivers are a group
to avoid outside of Davis.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis out-touched Derrick Henry 21-11
last week. Lewis also played quite more snaps (49-20), but that
may move closer to 50/50 as the season progresses. Henry also
had a 60+ yard touchdown called back on a holding penalty. It’s
obvious Lewis is the running back to own at this point, especially
since he ran a touchdown in from the four-yard-line, suggesting
Henry isn’t even a goal line back. Houston allowed James
White to post a 4/38/1 line out of the backfield, and Lewis could
pose a problem for them this week.
Value Meter:
RB2: Dion Lewis (mid-range)
WR3: Corey Davis (high end)
TE2: Jonnu Smith (high end)
Bench: Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry
Prediction: Texans 17, Titans 14
Colts at Redskins
- (Katz) Line: WAS -5.5 Total: 48.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck isn’t all the way back
from his shoulder injury, but this was definitely a step in the
right direction. Luck tossed up the ball up 53 times, completing
39 passes for 319 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. That’s
the type of volume that helped Luck finish as the QB2 in 2014.
T.Y. Hilton caught a red zone touchdown, which is always encouraging.
Jack Doyle had a bad fumble, but otherwise remained his usual
reliable self. I would not buy into Eric Ebron’s performance.
The 4-51-1 line is nice, but doesn’t seem repeatable given
he was on the field for only 45% of the snaps. It looks like Ryan
Grant is the second wide receiver as he outsnapped Chester Rogers
65-47. That certainly has value, but it’s difficult to say
how much given that Luck isn’t going to attempt 50+ passes
every week. The Redskins are fresh off a demolition of the Cardinals,
but it’s fair to say Luck is just a tad bit better than
Sam Bradford at playing quarterback. I’m expecting another
game of negative game script, which means a lot of passes for
Luck.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Wilkins is going to promptly lose
his job to Marlon Mack (hamstring) if and when Mack is ready to
return, which could be this week. Wilkins is just not cut out
to be a starter in the NFL as he has a very limited skillset and
cannot catch passes. Nyheim Hines, on the other hand, most certainly
can catch passes. He proved it in college and showcased that ability
last week with seven receptions. He totaled just 33 yards, but
the usage is very encouraging. I definitely prefer him to Wilkins
going forward. Mack and Hines play different roles so Hines should
be largely unaffected by Mack’s return. With the Colts offensive
line constantly struggling, Luck may find it necessary to dump
it off to Hines a lot again this week. He’s a PPR option
only, though.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Out of Alex Smith’s 21 opening week
completions, just eight of them went to wide receivers and they
made up just 65 of Smith’s 255 yards. The Colts are an extremely
favorable matchup for any opposing offense and Smith is repeatedly
disrespected in the fantasy community. He is arguably the week’s
best streaming option. Another positive from last week’s
game was the health of Jordan Reed. He looks every bit like the
elite tight end we’ve seen for years. He belongs in lineups
for as long as he remains healthy. As for the receivers, Paul
Richardson is my preferred option over Jamison Crowder and Josh
Doctson, but none of them are appealing. After all this preseason
hype discussing Smith’s check-down nature and how great
that will be for Crowder, the slot man saw just four targets last
week. Crowder needs volume to thrive and I’m not sure he’s
going to get it. Your best bet is to avoid all of the Redskins
receivers.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: The one Redskins “receiver”
you do want is Chris Thompson. Remember when people were fretting
about the notion that he won’t be 100% until November? That
went away real quick once Derrius Guice tore his ACL. CT is the
primary back in Washington and was as efficient as ever last week,
racking up 65 yards on the ground on just five carries and 63
yards in the air on six receptions. The rushing efficiency is
unsustainable, but the receiving acumen is well documented giving
him a high weekly floor in PPR. As for Adrian Peterson, please
do not overreact. He did this last year in his Arizona debut.
AP touched the ball 26 times on the ground for 96 yards. That’s
typical AP inefficiency (3.7 ypc.) His 70 yards on two receptions
is a fluke but Peterson can certainly volume his way to RB2 numbers
and he’s going to get goal line carries. The Colts present
a highly favorable matchup. Peterson is probably going to make
me look stupid for a second week in a row, but I’m confident
I will get the last laugh. However, I acknowledge he is a legitimate
start this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kansas City head coach Andy Reid turned
some heads this offseason when he traded away Alex Smith to the
Redskins in favor of second-year QB Pat Mahomes, just one year
after Smith posted an MVP caliber season for the Chiefs. After
an impressive 32-28 win over the Chargers in which Mahomes threw
for 256 yards and four touchdowns, Reid looks like he made the
right decision and Mahomes looks like an impressive quarterback
of the future.
Speed was on display for the Chiefs in their opening week road
victory over the Chargers, as Tyreek Hill burned Los Angeles on
a 58-yard slant that he took to the house. The speedster also
scored a touchdown on a punt return in the first quarter and a
jet sweep pass from Mahomes, showcasing his ability to beat opposing
defenses in many different ways. Hill’s quickness and Reid’s
ability to find mismatches will be a crucial aspect of this game,
as the veteran Pittsburgh cornerbacks of Joe Haden and Artie Burns
do not have the speed to keep up with Hill.
Look for defensive coordinator Keith Butler and defensive back
coach Tom Bradley to use more zone coverage than usual to help
mitigate the chance of Hill and Sammy Watkins to beat man coverage
with speed. If that is the case, tight end Travis Kelce should
be more involved than in Week 1 as he excels in finding gaps in
the middle of the zone on short and intermediate routes.
Kareem Hunt was surprisingly quiet against the Chargers, especially
in the passing game with zero catches on one target. Hunt’s
limited work in the passing was surprising considering he caught
54 passes for 455 yards and three scores last season. Hunt’s
lack of usage appeared to be more of a game plan by Reid to attack
the Chargers with Hill and the receiving corps, but I suspect
Hunt will be more involved in what could be a shootout in Pittsburgh.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Game script and the success
of the Chiefs passing attack and special teams were contributing
factors to Hunt posting a pedestrian 16 rushes for 49 and no scores
Week 1. Hunt did not receive a red zone carry in the game and
the Chiefs scored two “passing” touchdowns on jet
sweep passes from inside the five-yard line. If Hunt had been
given a chance to run the ball on either of those two plays, his
stat line would have been more respectable for fantasy owners.
Pittsburgh allowed 100 yards and a rushing touchdown to the trio
of Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, and Nick Chubb Week 1 against Cleveland,
with Hyde rushing for 62 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries.
Butler’s defense gave up the 14th-most points to opposing
running backs last season, as seven different running backs managed
to reach double figures in fantasy points. However, Hunt did struggle
against the Steelers in 2017 when the two teams faced off at Arrowhead
Week 6, with only 21 yards on nine carries. Hunt did log five
catches for 89 yards in that game, signaling the possibility that
he will be more involved in the passing game this week.
For Kansas City to be successful on the ground, the offensive
line will need to be able to sustain blocks against a talented
trio of Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, and Javon Hargrave. The
Chiefs were dreadful running the ball between the tackles in the
preseason and will likely struggle again on Sunday, which could
force Reid to lean more on the pass than the run in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger was dreadful last week
with three interceptions against an underrated Browns defense
on a windy and rainy Sunday in Cleveland. Big Ben completed just
56% of his passes and was under constant pressure as Miles Garrett
and the Browns sacked Roethlisberger four times Week 1. Big Ben
left the game with a bruised throwing elbow and starting offensive
lineman David DeCastro is dealing with a broken bone in his hand.
On a positive note, the Steelers return home to the friendly
confines of Heinz Field and the Kansas City defense will be much
easier to move the ball against than the Browns. The Chiefs game
up 424 passing yards and three touchdowns to Philip Rivers last
week, as wide receiver Keenan Allen caught eight passes for 108
yards and a score. Second year WR Mike Williams posted a career-best
81 yards on six catches, while Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler
combined to catch 14 passes for 189 yards and a score out of the
backfield.
All skill position players on the Steelers are worthy of a start
in what could be a high scoring game. Antonio Brown is the start
of the week at the wide receiver position and is a lock for at
least 100 yards and a score or two, while JuJu Smith-Schuster
matched up against Orlando Scandrick in the slot is an enticing
option.
On the injury front, star safety Eric Berry appears as though
he will miss this game with a heel injury. His absence is a big
knock against the Chiefs and their ability to cover the tight
end, making Jesse James or Vance McDonald (foot) an interesting
play in deeper leagues.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh ground game did not miss
a beat without Le’veon Bell as James Conner rushed for 135
years and two scores on 31 carries. The second-year back added
57 yards on five catches out of the backfield and could once again
be a massive part of the passing attack against a Chiefs defense
that allowed 189 receiving yards to running backs last week.
The Chiefs allowed the 12th-fewest points to opposing running
backs last season with only one opposing running back reaching
triple digits in yardage in any game in 2017. That one running
back was Le’Veon Bell, and he torched the Chiefs for a season-high
179 yards on 32 carries. While I don’t anticipate Conner
reaching that impressive yardage total, he is certainly in line
for a big day and is a must-start in all formats.
On the injury front, right inside linebacker Reggie Ragland is
dealing with a knee injury and fellow linebacker Ben Niemann missed
last week with a hamstring injury. Ragland looks like he will
be able to play on Sunday, but the prognosis for Niemann is not
as, and it looks like he will miss another game.
For the Steelers, starting guard David DeCastro did not practice
on Wednesday due to a broken hand. It appears as though he is
going to play through the injury, but he will likely have a cast
on his hand that could hinder his ability to block.
Chargers at Bills
- (Katz) Line: LAC -7.5 Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Keenan Allen remains the main option in
the Chargers passing game, playing 88% of the snaps last week.
Philip Rivers just missed LA’s number two WR, Tyrell Williams
(or he dropped it, depending on your perspective) on a wide open
touchdown. Travis Benjamin also committed one of the worst drops
you’ll ever see. Meaning, Rivers’ 424-yard, three
touchdown line could have been even bigger. This is how it goes
when your team is constantly trailing. That will hardly be the
case this week against the worst team in the NFL. While Rivers
has no shot at getting anywhere near 51 pass attempts, we all
saw what Joe Flacco did to the Bills last week meaning Rivers
can attempt as few as 30 passes and still post QB1 numbers. Expect
Allen to once again see double digit targets. Fantasy owners may
be somewhat intrigued by Mike Williams because of his draft capital
and his five receptions on six targets for 81 yards last week.
I’m here to provide the other side of the argument. All
six of those targets came in the fourth quarter with the Chargers
down multiple scores. Mike is clearly fourth on the depth chart
behind Allen, Tyrell, and Travis Benjamin, all of whom played
more offensive snaps. In a positive game script for the Chargers,
you can only trust Rivers and Allen.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: The real second member of the Chargers
passing attack is Melvin Gordon, who led the team with 13 targets
last week. Gordon was his usual inefficient self on the ground,
rushing for just 64 yards on 15 carries, but he excelled through
the air with 102 yards on nine receptions. Gordon is a volume
king and it is not going anywhere. Keep an eye on Austin Ekeler,
though. If Gordon were to go down, Ekeler could very well match
Gordon’s productivity. Ekeler caught all five of his targets
for 87 yards and a touchdown. He only played 27% of the offensive
snaps so don’t go chasing last week’s points. With
the Chargers poised to experience significant positive game script,
Gordon is an obvious RB1 play, but Ekeler could get some heavy
burn in the fourth quarter as the Chargers are in clock killing
mode.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Clearly the biggest question heading into
Week 1 was whether the world was ready for the Nate Peterman Experience.
The answer, unequivocally, was no. The Experience, as I now call
him, lasted a little over two quarters. I think Josh Allen is
one of the worst “top” QB prospects of all time, but
it’s the correct move to start him this week. The Chargers
were shredded by Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs last week, but I still
believe in their secondary and things will be much easier this
week against the Allen led Bills. Kelvin Benjamin will continue
to lead the team in targets. He caught just one of seven last
week as the Bill quarterbacks combined for 11-of-33 for 98 yards.
As a result, Benjamin and the rest of the pass-catchers can’t
be trusted. The Chargers defense is an elite play this week.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy is still good at football.
I promise. Unfortunately, it’s not going to matter. You
simply can’t start McCoy with any confidence on this team.
He’ll get all the goal line carries if the Bills ever get
close enough. They averaged 6.6 yards per drive last week. McCoy
managed just 22 yards on a mere seven carries and I really don’t
see things ever getting much better. This offense is a wasteland.
Dolphins at Jets
- (Katz) Line: NYJ -3.0 Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was an up and down return for Ryan
Tannehill. He completed 20 of 28 throws last week for 230 yards
and two touchdowns, but he also turned the ball over twice. Kenny
Stills was the Dolphins best wide receiver, but he did so in his
usual Stills way with a 75-yard touchdown. Other than that, he,
Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, and Jakeem Grant all had similar
lines. Stills is the only receiver you can use due to his ceiling.
Rookie TE Mike Gesicki saw two targets and isn’t ready to
be relevant. It is difficult to know what to make of the Jets
defense after Matt Stafford made them look like the ‘85
Bears last week. I’m inclined to think most of that is on
Stafford. The Jets didn’t record a sack last week but trusting
the Dolphins passing game members on the road is a risky proposition.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake (46 snaps) clearly played
ahead of Frank Gore (18 snaps), but the old man was enough of
a thorn in Drake’s side to cap Drake’s upside. Gore
actually outrushed Drake 61-48 despite handling five fewer carries.
Drake was more involved in the passing game, though, seeing four
targets to Gore’s zero. The Jets bottled up the Lions run
game last week, but that game was also out of hand very early
and the Lions have horrible running backs. I think Drake will
be fine as an RB2, but he’s definitely not someone with
a high ceiling.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Darnold’s career started in
the worst possible way with a touchdown to the wrong team. He
did recover nicely, not turning it over the rest of the game while
throwing for two touchdowns. With the game out of hand early and
Stafford gift wrapping points for the Jets, we didn’t get
to see Darnold air it out much. He did drop a dime to Robby Anderson
for a 41-yard touchdown in an effort to eschew the notion that
he’s just a dink and dunk quarterback. His top target was
clearly Quincy Enunwa, who led the team with six catches for 63
yards and a score. He looks like the Jets receiver to own. Enunwa
is going to be the Jets primary slot receiver and operate as a
safety blanket for the rookie QB. He could be in for a strong
PPR year and is worth inserting into lineups this week if you
need a replacement for Marquise Goodwin or Doug Baldwin.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Bilal Powell started and was dominating
snaps until what looked like an eye injury caused him to exist.
Isaiah Crowell stepped in and was effective. Each RB saw 40% of
the snaps. This is a true timeshare with each holding RB3/Flex
value. Powell only caught one pass, which was one more than Crowell,
but Crowell was way more efficient on the ground with 102 yards
on 10 carries compared to 60 yards on 12 carries for Powell. Both
backs were productive though and it was Crowell that scored. The
Dolphins run defense bottled up Derrick Henry last week, but struggled
with Dion Lewis. With Powell being the shiftier of the two Jets’
RBs, he is a slightly better bet than Crowell this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins’ first start for the
Minnesota Vikings was a success, as the high priced free agent
acquisition completed 20 of 36 passes for 244 yards and two scores
in a 24-16 win against the San Francisco 49ers. Cousins hooked
up with Adam Thielen on six receptions for a game-high 102 yards,
while Stefon Diggs hauled in three catches for 43 yards and a
score.
In a positive note for both Vikings fans and Dalvin Cook owners,
the second-year tailback appeared to be back to his rookie form,
with six catches for 55 yards to go along with 16 carries for
40 yards on the ground.
Considering the matchup against a 49ers team the fifth-most points
to opposing quarterbacks in 2017 and once again appear to be exploitable
in the air, Cousins’ 12-place finish was likely a disappointment
for owners expecting a monster game.
Green Bay’s front office revamped a defensive secondary
that allowed the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks last
season by using two top 45 picks on cornerbacks, including the
18th overall pick on Jaire Alexander from the University of Louisville.
Both players are currently playing behind veterans Tramon Williams
and Kevin King, but they provide excellent depth to a position
of weakness for the team and Alexander logged three tackles week
one against the Bears.
Despite these additions, the Packers are more susceptible against
the pass than the run and the Vikings will likely look to attack
Green Bay through the air, especially to the tight end and in
the slot with Thielen.
A matchup to watch will be the Vikings offensive line against
the outside rush of Clay Matthews, Muhammad Wilkerson, and blitzes
from Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The below average offensive line of Rashod
Hill and Mike Remmers on the right side allowed three sacks and
five QB knockdowns against a 49ers team that does not feature
a stout defensive front. If the Packers can continue to be strong
against the run and get sustained pressure on Cousins, they will
have a good chance of staring the season 2-0.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook returned to the field Week
1 for the first time since suffering a season-ending knee injury
last September against the Lions. Although the former Florida
State star managed just 40 yards on 16 carries for a 2.5 yard
per carry average, he hauled in six of his seven targets from
Kirk Cousins for 55 yards, while playing in 80% of the team’s
offensive snaps. As expected, Latavius Murray worked in for 11
carries on 14 snaps, but Cook earned the majority of work and
should continue to play in around 75% of offensive plays.
Cook’s ineffectiveness on the ground against the 49ers
begs the question if he will struggle this week against a Packers
unit that allowed just two rushing touchdowns in the final seven
games of the 2017 season. When healthy, defensive lineman Mike
Daniels is one of the most talented run stopping players in the
NFL. The addition of free agent Muhammad Wilkerson will bolster
an already stout run stopping line, which could pose a problem
for a Vikings offensive line that entered 2018 ranked as the No.
28 unit out of 32 according to ProFootball Focus.
Look for the Vikings to continue to keep Cook involved in the
passing game even if they fail to move the ball consistently on
the ground. Over the past two seasons, the Packers have allowed
the 10th most receiving yards in the league to opposing running
backs, and the Vikings will have more than a few opportunities
to try to exploit Mike Pettine’s blitz packages with screens
and other quick passes to Diggs and Thielen on crossing patterns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The fate of the Packers and all of the
skill position players in Green Bay were on life support for nearly
an hour on Sunday night when Aaron Rodgers left the game against
the Bears with a serious knee injury that had the appearance of
a season-ending ailment. The loss of Rodgers would once again
kill the value of Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham, Randall Cobb, and
all three Packers running backs for the entirety of the season.
In a stroke of good fortune, the knee injury proved to be not
as severe as it appeared and Rodgers returned to throw for three
touchdowns while leading the Pack back to a victory over a shocked
Bears team. Rodgers has yet to be cleared to start and is currently
listed as questionable against Minnesota. Assuming that he does
not need season-ending knee surgery, Rodgers will play and is
a must-start even against a tough Vikings defense.
Look for Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy to use a quick
passing game like they used I the second half of the Sunday Night
game against Chicago. Having Rodgers get the ball out early will
help mitigate the likelihood of making the injury worse by reducing
the number of hits on the quarterback, especially against a team
like Mike Zimmer’s Vikings, who love to blitz with pro bowl
safety Harrison Smith. This style of passing game will make Randall
Cobb a high-volume play and could reduce the number of deep targets
outside to Geronimo Allison.
Only one quarterback since 2015 has managed to throw for four
touchdowns in a game against Mike Zimmer’s defense. That
quarterback was Aaron Rodgers in 2016, the last time Rodgers played
against Minnesota at home. Considering the fact that Rodgers will
lack the mobility that makes him arguably the most dangerous QB
to ever have played the game, he does have a track record of at
least 20 points in his previous four games against the Vikings.
On the injury front, Adams was added to the injury report on
Wednesday with a sore shoulder. Be sure to monitor his status
as the week progresses. His absence in the lineup would increase
the target volume for Cobb, Allison, and Graham, but hurt the
overall efficiency of the offense.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Williams rushed the ball 15 times
for 47 yards against the Bears on Sunday night, while failing
to connect on his two targets out of the backfield. Ty Montgomery
added another seven yards on two carries with 21 receiving yards
on two catches.
The Green Bay ground game is predicated on the fact that opposing
defenses must account for the ability of Rodgers to pick them
apart in the passing game, thus limiting their ability to stack
the box to stop the run. But with a stout defensive line, led
by Linval Joseph, Sheldon Richardson, and Everson Griffen, Zimmer’s
unit is more than capable of stopping Williams and Montgomery
with their front four. Guards Taylor Lane and Justin McCray struggled
in run blocking last week against the Bears and will certainly
have their hands full this week as well.
Williams should once again be the starting back for McCarthy
and will continue to see the majority of snaps due to his superior
pass blocking skills. The Vikings will bring pressure against
Rodgers throughout the day, and Williams’ ability to pick
up blitzes will be a key factor for the Pack to win the game.
From a pure fantasy perspective, neither running back is a great
play in this game and other options at the position should be
considered. If faced with the situation of having to start one
of them, Williams would be the guy based on volume.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles passing attack will likely
continue to struggle with Nick Foles under center. He needed 34
attempts to throw for 117 yards and one interception last week
against the Falcons. He does get a matchup against the Bucs, who
allowed the New Orleans Saints to throw for 432 passing yards
and three passing touchdowns in Week 1. Furthermore, Tampa Bay
allowed the Saints to average 9.8 yards per attempt. While we
shouldn’t confuse Foles with Drew Brees, the matchup does
look promising on paper.
Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz were the focal points of this offense,
seeing 10 targets each. The only other major factor was Darren
Sproles, who saw seven targets out of the backfield. Mike Wallace
is a bit of a hidden gem in this offense, though. He failed to
record a catch on three targets last week, but he saw 109 air
yards. The coaching staff has suggested they want to get him going
this week, and Ted Ginn burned Tampa for a 5/68/1 line in the
deep threat role last week. Backup tight end Dallas Goedert is
another potential red zone target.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned above, Sproles lead the running
backs with seven targets, and he should lead them again this week.
Alvin Kamara featured a 9/112/1 line against the Bucs as a receiving
threat out of the backfield last week. Jay Ajayi has been the
top true running back for Philadelphia, though. He led the team
with 15 carries, 62 yards, and two touchdowns; the majority of
which came in the second half. The Eagles have suggested they
want to get him more involved as he recovers from a pre-season
foot injury, and he could potentially see 20+ touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick came out of nowhere,
throwing for 417 yards and four touchdowns on only 28 attempts
last week. He also added 36 yards and one touchdown on the ground.
He gets a tougher matchup against the Eagles, as they featured
a top-10 defense last season against quarterbacks. Still, they
allowed Matt Ryan to continuously get in the red zone in Week
1, although they could not convert.
Mike Evans torched an elite Marshon Lattimore for a 7/147/1 line
on seven targets. While the line is encouraging, Evans has never
been known as an efficient receiver, and only seven targets is
a bit worrisome. DeSean Jackson is currently questionable with
a head injury, but he’s tentatively on pace to play. Last
week, he caught all five of his targets for 146 yards and two
touchdowns. Chris Godwin also found the end zone, posting a 3/41/1
line on four targets. Tampa Bay’s receivers were far too
efficient last week, which doesn’t seem sustainable. That
being said, they should find some success in this matchup, but
expectations should be dropped significantly compared to last
week. O.J. Howard also seems to be ahead of Cameron Brate in the
tight end pecking order, although Howard only saw two targets
last week.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Barber was the only running back
of note, handling 86.4% of the Bucs carries. Ronald Jones, who
is arguably the only running back that can take carries away from
him, was inactive this week leaving backup duties to journeyman
Jacquizz Rodgers. If Jones is inactive again, Barber will continue
to play heavy snaps. The matchup here against an Eagles defense
that gave up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to running backs last
year isn’t appealing. It’s possible for Barber to
deliver RB2 value on volume alone but his ceiling is likely capped.
Cardinals at Rams
- (Caron) Line: LAR -13.0 Total: 44.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: A disastrous Week 1 against Washington
won’t give fantasy owners of Sam Bradford much confidence
as they head to Los Angeles to face a much-improved Rams defense.
Bradford, who is known for checking down and throwing efficient
passes, was not even effective doing that in Week 1 and the begging
for rookie Josh Rosen has already begun. We’ve seen other
situations already this season, such as Buffalo, where veteran
QBs were benched in favor of rookies, so there’s no guarantee
that Bradford even makes it through this matchup if he’s
struggling, making him an extremely risky play.
As far as receivers go, future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald
will mostly avoid Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters who primarily play
on the outside, but will instead see Nickell Robey-Coleman who
himself was one of the better slot cornerbacks in the league in
2017. Fitzgerald sees enough volume to still have a good chance
of producing a WR2 or Flex day in PPR formats, but his upside
is likely capped in this matchup. The other wide receivers in
the Arizona offense should be on your bench this week as they’ll
see some of the toughest coverage in the league and really aren’t
all that talented themselves to begin with. Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones
does have an intriguing matchup against a defense that just got
gashed by Jared Cook. The Rams play a bend-but-don’t-break
style of defense that should allow them to win this game but it
might still benefit the Cardinals’ dink-and-dunk passing
game.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: The preseason concerns that the Arizona
offense wouldn’t be good enough to give David Johnson the
ability to be an elite fantasy RB came to fruition in Week 1 as
Johnson was held in check against the Redskins. Johnson faces
an improved Rams run defense in Week 2 and there’s reason
to be concerned, but he could still have a good PPR game, especially
if the Cardinals do end up falling behind on the scoreboard. The
Raiders were behind on the scoreboard late in the game against
the Rams in Week 1 and that led to Jalen Richard catching nine
passes for 55 yards. Johnson is a better receiver than Richard
and while nine receptions is an outlandishly high number, there’s
a good chance that he pulls in five or more passes in this contest.
Johnson could get game scripted out of being productive in the
running game and that could be a problem all year, but he’s
the type of back who can still contribute even if running the
ball is out of the question.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Los Angeles offense picked up where
it left off in 2017 by producing big numbers in Week 1 against
the Raiders. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and the
newly acquired Brandin Cooks played almost exactly identical snaps
(61). This is great news because we now know that all three players
will heavily be involved in the passing game. Cooks was unable
to haul in any big passes in his Los Angeles debut but he did
draw two deep pass interference penalties, which is a good indication
that Jared Goff is going to be willing to look his way deep.
All three receivers have fantasy value this week but they might
vulture one another all season which makes them all difficult
to trust as anything other than WR2’s or Flex’s in
most leagues. One other thing to consider is that the Cardinals
insisted that Patrick Peterson would not be in shadow coverage
as much this season, but he was in Week 1, and could be again
in Week 2, likely against Cooks. The tight ends in this offense
are still not much for fantasy value but it’s worth noting
that Tyler Higbee played 60 snaps to Gerald Everett’s five,
so the job appears to be his without much competition at the moment.
That won’t likely translate into many fantasy points, however.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley also picked up right where
he left off in 2017 with another huge performance in Week 1. The
Cardinals got absolutely destroyed by the Redskins’ running
back in Week 1. Adrian Peterson rushed for 96 yards and a touchdown
while Chris Thompson added 65 yards on the ground. The duo also
combined for eight catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in the
receiving game. Gurley might be the top play on the entire board
this week as the Cardinals will be on the road where they do not
play nearly as well and are a -13 point underdog. This could mean
a significant positive game script for the Rams and a potentially
high usage day for Gurley. John Kelly was inactive while Malcolm
Brown played the backup role for Gurley. Neither player has any
fantasy value unless Gurley gets hurt.
Lions at 49ers
- (Caron) Line: SF -6.0 Total: 49.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Detroit Lions offense looked terrible
overall in Week 1, but there was still enough targets to go around
for Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay to all have decent
fantasy days. Don’t look for that to happen very often,
but the usage has to be inspiring for those who took a chance
on the Detroit receivers. Unfortunately, Matt Stafford’s
four interceptions were an ugly indication that the calm, efficient
Stafford that we’ve seen in recent seasons might be reverting
back to the guy who was much more dangerous with the football
early in his career. The San Francisco defense isn’t too
intimidating, though, and they were easily handled by Kirk Cousins
and the Vikings in Week 1, who threw for 244 yards and a pair
of touchdowns without an interception in Week 1. With the Lions
still not having much of a running game established, look for
Stafford to pass the ball heavily again this week, which should
give him and his receivers plenty of opportunities to produce
fantasy-relevant days.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back Kerryon Johnson looked
like the best runner and arguably the best receiver out of the
backfield for the Lions in Week 1 but this is still in a full
blown timeshare. With the game out of hand early in a surprise
blowout loss at home to the Jets in Week 1, Johnson played just
16 snaps to LeGarrette Blount's 13. It was pass-catching specialist
Theo Riddick who led the team with 41 snaps, but that was mostly
due to game script. It’s worth considering that this game
could also produce a poor game script game, though, which would
likely benefit Riddick and possibly Johnson a bit, if the 49ers
are able to get things going on offense. If the game remains close,
look for the snaps and touches to be relatively even between these
three backs, which makes trusting any of them a risk until we
see how things shake out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jimmy Garoppolo was exposed as being a
human by the Vikings defense in Week 1, but don’t be too
quick to write him off. The Vikings defense is one of the best
in the league and it’d be tough to expect much more than
what we got out of an overmatched 49ers offense. The big concern
right now is that wide receiver Marquise Goodwin has been limited
with hamstring injury which may end up keeping him out of this
contest, but it should certainly keep him out of your fantasy
lineup. Goodwin has come a long way as a receiver since he first
came into the league but he is still primarily a player who makes
plays with his speed. An injured hamstring won’t allow Goodwin
to run at full speed, thus making him a less-than-optimal fantasy
option. Pierre Garcon gets a boost if Goodwin is unable to play
as he will likely see more targets come his way, especially playing
against this terrible Lions defense that got lit up by rookie
Sam Darnold in Week 1. The other player who will likely see more
playing time in this contest if Goodwin is unable to play is Dante
Pettis who scored in his NFL debut in Week 1 against the Vikings.
Pettis is a deep league play only, or a tournament play if you’re
looking for a cheap option in daily formats, but he’s someone
to keep an eye on. Tight end George Kittle broke out in Week 1
and looks like he might be a solid TE1 going forward this season.
If nothing else, he’ll likely be the team’s primary
red zone weapon, which is great for fantasy purposes.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran tailback Alfred Morris fumbled
at the goal line or he would have had a better fantasy day, but
he is still likely in line for a solid workload here in Week 2
against a bad Detroit defense that got run over by the Jets in
Week 1. Matt Breida might end up being the player to own in PPR
formats, especially in games when the 49ers are behind. He did
nearly equal Morris in snaps in Week 1, but that game was a significantly
negative game script that plays into his skill set much more than
Morris’ who is not much of a pass catcher at all. Breida
is a PPR flex option while Morris is more of an RB2 in standard
leagues.
Patriots @ Jaguars
- (Bales) Line: NE -1.0 Total: 45.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback
to ever play, but even he gets a small bump down when playing
a defense as good as the Jacksonville Jaguars. In their game last
postseason, Brady threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns. It’s
difficult to use any of the Patriots receivers this week, as they
are a team that gameplans away from their opponents’ strengths.
Jacksonville has one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL, meaning
Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett could see limited volume. Rob
Gronkowski will see a boost, though, as tight ends can generally
beat Jacksonville. Gronkowski posted a 7/123/1 line on eight targets
last week, and he could lead the team in targets in Week 2.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill (knee) is out for the season,
while Rex Burkhead (concussion) and Sony Michel (knee) are both
questionable for this week. That means James White will likely
be the only fully healthy running back against the Jaguars. He
only saw five carries last week, but he also led the team with
nine targets. The Patriots love getting mismatches in space, and
White will likely be a major part of their offense, especially
as a receiver. He also scored a rushing touchdown against Jacksonville
in the playoffs last season. Jacksonville allowed 113 yards on
21 carries to the Giants running backs last week with most of
the damage done by Saquon Barkley. The Pats aren’t likely
to force-feed carries to any one RB although James White should
see a volume boost if Burkhead sits.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles threw the ball 33 times
last week, completing 18 of those attempts for 176 yards, one
touchdown, and one interception. New England looked like a tough
defense that loves pressuring the quarterback. As we all know,
Bortles is a player that has struggled with pressure in the past,
making him a risky option on this slate.
Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Donte Moncrief all split targets
last week, seeing four, six, and five, respectively. Bortles has
always been a better quarterback when targeting the slot, making
Westbrook the best option of the trio but is likely an uncomfortable
flex option. Austin Seferian-Jenkins also saw five targets, catching
three passes for 25 yards. He did catch a touchdown that was called
back on a penalty.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette (hamstring) was a major
part of the Jacksonville offense before he was injured last week.
He totaled 55 yards with three receptions in the first quarter.
T.J. Yeldon then totaled 14 carries with seven targets throughout
the remainder of the game. New England nearly gave up 100 yards
to Lamar Miller last week, and Fournette is a clear focal point
of the Jaguars offense when healthy. If he’s out, Yeldon
will be the lead back with Corey Grant being a change-of-pace
player. Fournette will likely be a gametime decision making it
difficult for fantasy owners as this is a late-afternoon contest.
Raiders at Broncos
- (Caron) Line: DEN -6.0 Total: 46.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr looked completely out of sync
with his wide receivers in his return to NFL action in Week 1.
The fifth-year QB was really only effective when the game was
close and he was able to throw short to Jalen Richard and Jared
Cook. Major concerns continued for Amari Cooper as he and Carr
did not look to be on the same page. Cooper is still easily the
team’s WR1 but there is worry that it just might not be
enough to generate fantasy value on a week-to-week basis. Cooper
and Jordy Nelson will see coverage from Chris Harris and Bradley
Roby here in Week 2, who anchor what is still one of the better
secondaries in the league. The player who has the best matchup
in this offense is tight end Jared Cook who exploded for a monster
game in Week 1 and faces a Denver defense that itself has struggled
to slow down opposing tight ends. A completely uninventive offensive
approach coached by Jon Gruden will lead to fewer opportunities
for receivers and more potential for the defense to force turnovers
and get sacks. The Broncos are one of the best defensive plays
in fantasy this week.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Jalen Richard saw quite a bit of work due
to game script, but also because Lynch was sick during the game.
Don’t overreact - Lynch is still the second option with
Richard being the team’s primary passing down back and Doug
Martin is a distant third option. The Broncos did a great job
of controlling the Seattle running game and will likely have success
against a weak Oakland offense. Lynch is still a threat to score
from inside the red zone, which he did against the Rams, however,
thus making him a viable fantasy option. Lynch was physically
ill but still dragged a number of Los Angeles defenders into the
end zone for his first score of the season in Week 1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: New Broncos quarterback Case Keenum was
not spectacular but he did his job getting the ball to his top
receivers, specifically Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders was one of the
better values in drafts and he should continue to see a high target
share. It’s tough to know whether Sanders or Demaryius Thomas
will have a big game on a week-to-week basis, but the Denver offense
consolidates targets primarily to them, so they both typically
see enough passes come their way to be reliable WR2s in PPR formats.
The Oakland secondary is atrocious and both receivers should be
good plays this week. Keenum himself is a great option in 2QB
formats and could make for one of the better streaming options
at the position this week if you’re someone who likes to
play matchups.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Royce Freeman ran for nearly five yards
per carry in his debut NFL game, but left fantasy owners a bit
disappointed as he failed to get into the end zone or catch any
passes. Meanwhile, fellow rookie running back Phillip Lindsay,
who seemingly came out of nowhere to steal the Broncos’
second running back job from Devontae Booker, actually mirrored
Freeman’s production on the ground with the exact same number
of attempts (15) and yards (71), but was also able to haul in
two passes for 31 yards and a touchdown. Freeman did out-snap
Lindsay and is expected to remain the team’s primary first
and second down back, but Lindsay is certainly a player to look
at on waiver wires as he may have a role all season and would
almost certainly fill in as the Broncos’ top tailback if
Freeman were to go down with an injury. Both Broncos backs are
in play this week against a mediocre Oakland run defense that
got run over by Todd Gurley in Week 1 and doesn’t appear
to be particularly well-equipped to stop the run anytime soon.
Giants at Cowboys
- (Katz) Line: DAL -3.0 Total: 42.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: In case anyone forgot, Odell Beckham Jr.
is back. Despite the toughest matchup imaginable, Beckham excelled
against Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, rattling off 11 receptions
on 15 targets for 111 yards. Beckham is matchup proof and although
the Cowboys have an improved secondary, he should have an even
easier time this week. Eli Manning threw no touchdowns and one
interception, largely just dinking and dunking against the Jaguars,
averaging a measly 3.4 air yards per attempt. Even with great
weapons, he’s not a trustworthy fantasy option. I will caution
fantasy owners to not fret about Evan Engram’s disappointing
Week 1. His performance was deceiving. He had an impressive 40-yard
grab called back due to penalty and lost yards on a pass interference
call that otherwise would’ve been a catch. The Cowboys linebackers
are far worse in coverage which should allow Engram to bounce
back nicely. As for Sterling Shepard, he will consistently see
five to seven targets and provide a solid floor with a limited
ceiling.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Saquon Barkley did typical Saquon Barkley
things last week. He barreled into the opposing defensive front
a bunch of times until eventually he broke one. That’s what
Barkley has always been. He is not going to give you consistent
carries of five or six yards; he’s going to rush for two
or three yards and then 30. Barkley’s 68-yard touchdown
run was a masterpiece but if he doesn’t hit on the splash
play or punch in a short score, his final line may be a bit disappointing.
However, Barkley should see enough volume to rarely fail, especially
given his usage in the passing game. He saw six targets last week
to go along with his 18 carries and is looking like a lock to
touch the ball 325+ times. He will be hard pressed to encounter
an opposing foe more difficult than he saw last week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I think the Cowboys are in for a very
long season. This passing game is a mess. Scott Linehan and Jason
Garrett have to be the least creative offensive minds in recent
history. Dak Prescott is one of the better quarterbacks in the
league and he is being wasted by a weak supporting cast and incompetent
coaching staff. When Cole Beasley is your team’s leading
pass catcher, you’ve got issues. Beasley was efficient with
seven receptions on eight targets for 73 yards. He has PPR value
kind of like Theo Riddick has PPR value in that he won’t
get you zero. Tavon “12-14 touches a game” Austin
didn’t even reach the low end of that “prediction”
in snaps, playing just 10. For some reason, it appeared Deonte
Thompson was playing ahead of Michael Gallup. Gallup is by far,
the most talented WR on the team and the only one I can see having
significant fantasy value if he gets the opportunity. Terrance
Williams (1-6 on two targets) should be left on the waiver wire
and Allen Hurns belongs in the slot ahead of Beasley, but that
won’t happen.
Prescott completed 65% of his throws for 170 empty yards and
added 19 yards on the ground. Sadly, this is what you are going
to see a lot of from Prescott this year – around 200 empty
yards and 20-40 rushing yards. That’s good for 10-12 fantasy
points, not what you want from your starting QB. Prescott will
have a handful of big games, but he can be dropped in single QB
leagues.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Credit to Ezekiel Elliott for “David
Johnsoning” his way to a solid fantasy outing. Zeke had
86 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown last week. It was uninspiring,
but a reminder that even on the worst of days, Elliott is still
an RB1. The problem for Elliott is that the aforementioned incompetent
coaching staff is doing him no favors. No play is less effective
in professional football than the early down run against a stacked
box. In 2017, the league average of runs against stacked boxes
was 38.7%. Setting aside how staggeringly high that number is
(teams should check to pass 99% of the time against a stacked
box), the Cowboys put it to shame last week, running the ball
against a stacked box a whopping 53.3% of the time. Unsurprisingly,
they had a putrid 27% success rate running the ball on first and
second down. The Cowboys offensive line did not play well, but
can still dominate against weaker opponents and will mask how
poor the offensive game plan truly is. For the Cowboys, their
insistence on running even when it is extremely disadvantageous
to do so is going to cost them games. For Zeke’s fantasy
value, volume is king, and he is locked into a ton of it.
Seahawks at Bears
- (Swanson) Line: -3.5 CHI Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russel Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks
likely needed the extra day off to heal up for their Monday Night
Football matchup against the Bears after the Broncos terrorized
Wilson in Week 1 to the tune of six sacks and two interceptions.
The Seahawk offensive line struggled to protect Wilson and open
rushing lanes for Chris Carson and Rashad Penny, as the Broncos
held Seattle to just 362 total yards.
The No.30 ranked offensive line according to ProFootballFocus.com
will be put to the test once again against a Bears defense that
terrorized Aaron Rodgers for most of the game last week. Khalil
Mack proved to be well worth his long-term deal a sack, fumble,
and an interception for a touchdown in his first game action of
2018. The pass rushing combination of Mack and Leonard Floyd gives
defensive coordinator Vic Fangio enough pressure on the quarterback
without blitzing, which made Fangio’s 2012 49er defense
so difficult for opposing offenses.
To make matters worse for the Seahawks, No.1 WR Doug Baldwin
is out with an MCL sprain that will keep him on the sideline for
multiple weeks. Veteran and former Bear Brandon Marshall will
likely start opposite of Tyler Locket outside. Former Arizona
Cardinal Jaron Brown may also see more action in this game due
to the Baldwin injury, but his lack of volume makes him too much
of a long shot to start.
Tight End Will Dissly was a surprise top performer at his position
with three catches for 105 yards and a score. Denver has been
historically weak against the tight end over the past two seasons,
and Dissly’s big game has the appearance of an offense taking
advantage of a weakness in the opposing defense. The Bears were
the fourth-toughest team against opposing tight ends in 2017,
with only three TE’s reaching double digits against Chicago.
The Dissly game was fun to watch, but he may come back down to
Earth this week.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game: Chris Carson and first-round draft pick Rashad
Penny combined to run for 59 yards on 14 carries, with each back
garnering seven carries from offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
Carson emerged with 51 for the 59 combined yards and earned the
praise of his habitual-gum chewing head coach Pete Carroll, with
Carroll telling the media earlier this week that Carson is pulling
away with the starting job.
Unless the Seahawks start blocking better for Carson, it does
not matter who is running the ball behind Russell Wilson, as the
Seattle offensive line struggled against the Broncos and will
likely struggle once against this week. Eddie Goldman, Akiem Hicks,
and Jonathan Bullard held Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery to
just 54 yards on 17 carries. Neither running back managed to get
much going on the ground and the linebacking corps of Danny Trevathan
and Nick Kwiakoski did an excellent job in run support.
On the injury front, guard D.J. Fluker is listed as questionable
and could miss a second consecutive game with a hamstring injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For most of the first half of Sunday’s
Night’s game against the Packers the new Matt Nagy offense
of the Bears looked to live up to everyone’s expectations.
The dynamic duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen gashed the Packers
for big play after big play, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky
spread the ball around well to his new collection of receivers,
including Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton.
The second half proved to be a different story with no scoring
drives for the Chicago offense, and the Bears settled for two
Cody Parkey field goals as the Packers and Aaron Rodgers stormed
back to victory. It is not uncommon to see a rookie head coach
with a young quarterback get conservative with a lead, but it
was disappointing to see the Matt Nagy proved to be more like
his predecessor John Fox down the stretch than the new regime
of play callers like Doug Pederson or Sean McVay.
Look for the Bears to use an uptempo offense this week to keep
an old and relatively shallow Seattle defense tired and unable
to substitute. Although I anticipate that Chicago will lean on
their advantage in the trenches to run the ball early and often
against Seattle, play action passes to Burton between the biting
linebackers and safety Earl Thomas will be there all day.
On the injury front for Seattle, starting linebacker K.J. Wright
is listed as doubtful and will likely miss another game due to
a knee injury. Rookie Shaquem Griffin and brother Shaquill Griffin
will likely start again on Sunday, while defensive lineman Frank
Clark may miss the game with a shoulder injury.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard led the Bears with 15 carries
for 85 yards and five catches for 25 yards in the loss against
the Packers, with backfield mate Tarik Cohen adding five carries
for 25 yards and three catches for 16 yards for head coach Matt
Nagy. Although Howard did not reach the end zone, the fact that
he caught all five passes from Trubiski is very encouraging.
There is very little evidence to suggest that Howard and Cohen
will not be successful running the ball against a Seattle defense
that allowed the third-most rushing yards week one. Royce Freeman
and Phillip Lindsay each ran the ball 15 times for 71 yards against
the Seahawks, with Lindsay adding two catches for 31 yards and
score in the air. The Bears boast one of the highest rated run
blocking lines in the league and Seattle will not be able to stack
the box with Robinson, Burton, and Gabriel as passing threats.
Although factor to consider is the success of the Bears defense
creating short fields from turnovers and special teams plays.
If Chicago can wreak havoc on the Seattle offensive line with
Mack and Floyd creating pressure on Wilson, the Howard may get
some red zone opportunities to run the ball.