Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Patriots vs. Rams
- (Swanson) Line: NE -2.5 Total: 56.5
Passing
Game Thoughts:Tom
Brady and the New England Patriots return to the Super Bowl
for the third consecutive year and ninth time overall after defeating
Patrick Mahomes
and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
Brady completed 30-of-46 passes for 348 yards against the Chiefs,
with one passing touchdown and two interceptions. Although he
has just two passing touchdowns and two interceptions this postseason,
the five-time Super Bowl champ continues to dominate with a quick
passing attack and a high completion percentage of just over 70%.
Head Coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels
neutralized the pass rush of the Chargers and Chiefs by calling
for quick passes and a run-heavy approach. The plan has worked
flawlessly so far, with opposing defenses failing to sack Brady
in either of the two games. While the Rams do not have the same
edge rushing stars of the Chargers or Chiefs, they do excel at
rushing the passer and disrupting the run with all-pro defensive
lineman Aaron Donald. Look for Brady to once again use quick passes
to Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski, and James White,
to get the ball out of his hand quickly and help the middle of
the offensive line against Donald and Ndamukong Suh.
Although he is a shell of his former self and used almost more
as a decoy and a blocker, Gronkowski may once again see a heavy
dose of shadow coverage from Aquib Talib like when the two faced
off in the AFC Championship game in 2015. Wade Phillips was the
defensive coordinator for the Broncos at that time and made a
point to use the lanky cornerback against the 6’7”
tight end.
Another aspect to watch will be the Patriots taking advantage
of cornerback Marcus Peters on double moves. Peters is not the
greatest coverage corner, but he is very aggressive and makes
the majority of his picks jumping routes and pulling off of his
assigned coverage. Look for McDaniels to use that aggressiveness
against him, with a few deep passes to Hogan or Phillip Dorsett
on sluggos and other double-move routes.
After a slow start to the season, highlighted by a 422-yard,
three touchdown game to Kirk Cousins, the Rams turned things around
as the team got healthy on the defensive side of the ball. Not
counting the three-touchdown game by Nick Mullens in Week 17 when
the Rams were resting players, Phillips’ defense allowed
a total of two passing touchdowns since Week 13.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts:Sony Michel finished his rookie season
as the No.24 ranked running back in fantasy points per game (10.3).
The former first-round pick from the University of Georgia rushed
for 931 yards and six touchdowns on 209 carries, with seven catches
for 50 yards in 13 games.
Although his regular season totals were good, but not necessarily
eye-opening, he has been nothing short of dominant in the playoffs
with five rushing touchdowns and 242 rushing yards against the
Chargers and Chiefs.
The Patriots used Michel and Rex Burkhead to control the clock
and limit the number of possessions for Patrick Mahomes and the
Kansas City offense. That same game plan will be used once again
in the Super Bowl as Bill Belichick does not want to get his team
in another shootout vs. a high scoring offense.
The Rams finished the season as the No.16th ranked team against
the run, allowing 1635 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns to opposing
backs. Considering the amount of money and talent the Rams used
to bolster their defensive front, it was somewhat surprising that
Los Angeles was not better at limiting the run for opposing backs.
Twelve players in 16 games against the Rams reached at least 10
fantasy points, including a three-touchdown performance by Alvin Kamara Week 9.
But the Rams appear to have shored up their rush defense in the
playoffs after limiting Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards on 20 carries
in the divisional round and Kamara to just 15 yards on eight carries.
If the Patriots find it difficult to run between the tackles with
Michel and Burkhead, look for Brady to rely more heavily on White
on passes out of the backfield that are essentially extended handoffs
outside the tackles to give White the ball in space.
Passing
Game Thoughts:Jared
Goff finished the 16-game regular season as the No.6 ranked
fantasy quarterback, ahead of Aaron
Rodgers, Drew
Brees, Kirk
Cousins, Russell
Wilson, and his Super Bowl LIII opponent, Tom
Brady. He set career-highs in every single statistical category,
including completion percentage (64.8%), passing yards (4,688),
and passing touchdowns (32).
Although Goff ended with an impressive point total for the season,
a closer examination of his game log reveals more than a few head-scratching
performances sandwiched between some monster games. In just two
games against the Vikings and Chiefs, the former first overall
pick logged just under 1000 passing yards with nine touchdowns,
only to follow up with a 201/0 line against the Broncos.
The most interesting aspect of this Super Bowl matchup will be
the chess match between Rams head coach Sean McVay, the young
and brash offensive mind going up against the greatest coach and
defensive mind the game has ever seen.
One of the things that McVay focuses on is running multiple plays
out of the 11 personal grouping. Not only does the use of three
wide receivers, a tight end, and one running back force opposing
defenses to play both the pass and run more evenly, it opens the
box for the running game and gives his slot receivers advantageous
matchups against slot corners and linebackers.
Look for McVay to use this strategy, along with a ton of motion
to get mismatches for wide receivers Robert Woods and Brandin
Cooks. The Rams used the same play against the Vikings to get
Cooper Kupp and Woods open on post and seam touchdowns against
Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. No other team in the league uses
more 11 personnel than the Rams, and Belichick’s ability
to develop a scheme to beat it will be crucial for the success
of the Patriots.
Another matchup to watch will be the pressure put on Goff by
blitz packages with Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, and
the other Patriots linebackers. The Chiefs offensive line struggled
to protect Mahomes in the AFC championship game, and the line
appeared to be confused at times by the blitz scheme employed
by Belichick. The Rams boast a far more talented and experienced
offensive line, and their ability to identify and respond to blitzes
will be imperative for the Rams.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts:Todd Gurley’s performance against
the Saints and an apparent benching by Sean McVay in favor of
C.J. Anderson was one of the more shocking turns of events in
the 2018 post season. After another season in which he finished
as the RB 1 in fantasy football, Gurley has been awful in the
playoffs, dropping easy passes that led to turnovers and missing
blocking assignments. Perhaps the knee injury that Gurley suffered
at the end of the season continues to hamper the all-pro back.
But regardless of the reason, Gurley has not come up big for the
Rams when they needed him most.
Anderson , on the other hand, has been a revelation, rushing
for at least 123 yards and a score in three of his last four games,
including 123 yards and two touchdowns in the divisional game
against the Cowboys. Considering the veteran back was cut by the
Broncos, Panthers, and Raiders in the last 14 months, it is impressive
to see what he has done with the Rams in crunch time.
Both players will be in the mix with Gurley continuing to be
the starter. But if he continues to struggle with the mental side
of the game, don't be surprised to see McVay use Anderson more
and more as the game progresses.
You can run on the Patriots, a team that ended the regular season
as the No.21 ranked team in fantasy points allowed to running
backs. Like the Rams, 12 running backs in 16 games reached the
double-digit plateau against New England, including Jaylen Samuels
in Week 15, with 172 total yards.
Although only six rushing touchdowns were scored against the
Pats this season, the team did allow the ninth-most receiving
yards to running backs, and four different players scored a receiving
touchdown out of the backfield.
As the No.26th ranked team in total number of passes to running
backs this season, the Rams are not built to take advantage of
the relative weakness of the Patriots in the passing game out
of the backfield. Perhaps McVay will create a game plan that does
feature more passes to running backs as a way to confuse the Patriots
and give them a taste of their own medicine.
Patriots vs. Rams
- (Katz) Line: NE -2.5 Total: 56.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady threw for over 300 yards just
five times during the regular season with his 358 yards in Week
14 a season high. Coming in second and third are both of his playoff
performances of 343 and 348 yards. Brady will never be an elite
fantasy QB again, but he’s proven that has nothing to do
with a lack of ability. At over 40 years old, Brady goes on cruise
control in the regular season and turns on the afterburners in
the playoffs. His 90 pass attempts in his two postseason games
are more than any two regular season games combined.
It is difficult to use information from the season to support
what is going to happen because the Patriots are a different team
in the playoffs. I don’t think anyone will argue that the
Rams are the more talented team. I don’t think it’s
particularly close. But the Patriots are winning this game because
that’s what they do.
Conventional wisdom suggests that Bill Belichick will employ
a quick passing attack to neutralize Aaron Donald and the Rams’
pass rush. That typically means a lot of Julian Edelman and a
lot of James White. The Rams ranked 28th in DVOA against opposing
WR1s, but were 4th in covering running backs out of the backfield.
White was the game plan against the Chargers, but was an afterthought
against the Chiefs. He certainly won’t see 17 targets again,
but I expect double digits. Julian Edelman will remain the rock
and Brady’s safety blanket. He’s seen 23 targets over
the Patriots’ two playoff games.
This will be Rob Gronkowski’s last game in my opinion.
He’s still a massive human and always a threat to score
a touchdown, but he’s not a deliberate piece of this offense.
Unfortunately, regardless of what type of fantasy you’re
playing, you don’t really have another option at the position.
Phillip Dorsett is rarely targeted, but he’s managed to
score in both games. He’s a sneaky contrarian play as he’s
been all throughout the playoffs.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: I touched on James White above so the
focus here will be on Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead. There’s
no clear starter or workhorse. The split between Michel, White,
and Burkhead against the Chiefs was 35%, 34%, 31% of the snaps.
Belichick just does what he wants. Burkhead has three touchdowns
this postseason while Michel has five. The difference is Michel
has seen 53 carries. He’s the clear preferred option even
though Burkhead remains a threat to vulture him at the goal line.
Unfortunately for Michel, he is less than zero in the passing
game as he is vastly inferior to both White and Burkhead. The
Patriots have played in a blowout and a shootout where Michel’s
usage has been no different. The Rams have a top 10 run defense,
but the Patriots’ run success has more to do with scheme
and confusion than trying to pound the ball into an eight man
front. Belichick is smarter than that. The Patriots will run exactly
as much as they need to and the players scoring the touchdowns
could be anyone, including James Develin, which is always fun.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff was better than Tom Brady this
season. Goff looks like a younger, faster version of Brady. He’s
a true pocket passer capable of making extremely high difficulty
throws. Goff also has a propensity to throw the ball into danger
but if the Rams want to win this game, it will be on the arm of
their third year quarterback.
Fortunately for Goff, the Rams sport three excellent receivers
in Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Josh Reynolds. Cooks is playing
in his second consecutive Super Bowl, exiting early with a concussion
for the Patriots last year. You have to think he’s anxious
to put on a show. Unfortunately, he will likely see a lot of Stephon
Gilmore.
The key to the Rams passing attack will be Woods, who has caught
six balls in each of the Rams’ two playoff games. Woods
has caught at least five passes in all but four games this season.
The Patriots have an average pass defense and Woods will avoid
Gilmore in the slot making him the preferred member of this passing
attack.
And given how often the Rams run 11 personnel, Josh Reynolds
deserves consideration, coming off an impressive 4-74 outing in
the NFC Championship game. He won’t be a popular play, which
makes him interesting in a game where he should see six or seven
targets.
Neither Gerald Everett nor Tyler Higbee is of much use at the
tight end position. Higbee is in there to block and occasionally
leak out for a reception in the flat or a short touchdown. Everett
is an athletic move TE that just isn’t a great pass catcher.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley claimed he was benched for
C.J. Anderson due to poor play. No one will deny that Gurley was
dreadful when he was on the field against the Saints, but it’s
hard to dismiss the notion that Gurley’s knee injury was
and still is far more serious than the team let on. If Gurley
is healthy this week, I can’t fathom why he wouldn’t
see his regular season workload. It’s the Super Bowl and
he’s Todd Gurley.
CJA has showed well, but come on, let’s be serious, he’s
not even 1/100 the player Gurley is. Running backs don’t
matter in real football so the Rams will be fine regardless, but
for fantasy purposes, it’s impossible to trust Anderson.
People are going to be scared off of Gurley, making him a contrarian
play – something he is quite unfamiliar with after being
the chalk play all season. The Patriots run defense has been below
average, but even if they step up like they did against Damien
Williams (10-30) last week, Gurley is an adept pass catcher and
can accumulate stats in that area as long as he is on the field.