Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Redskins @ Titans
- (Bales) Line: TEN -10 Total: 37.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Titans feature a great pass defense,
allowing only 219.0 passing yards per game this season. They have
also allowed only 17 passing touchdowns, while recording eight
interceptions. Josh Johnson has been a decent fantasy option in
two games this season, as he’s averaging 173.0 yards and
1.0 touchdown on 20.5 pass attempts per game, although he only
started one of those games. Furthermore, Johnson has totaled 45+
rushing yards in each game, which is where his value truly comes
from.
Josh Doctson, Maurice Harris, and Vernon Davis are all questionable
for the Redskins this weekend. Jeremy Sprinkle will start at tight
end Davis sits. On top of that, this is a bad matchup and their
passing attack will be lacking with Johnson at QB, who only holds
small fantasy value because of his rushing ability. There isn’t
anyone in the receiving group that should be considered in this
matchup.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson is coming off of a 19
carry game, recording only 51 yards on those touches. He has struggled
outside of a long touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles since
the injury to Alex Smith. That likely won’t change this
weekend against Tennessee, who is allowing 110.3 rushing yards
per game. They have held their opponents to only eight rushing
touchdowns as well. Chris Thompson will also see some time on
the field, but he hasn’t seen a large enough role to be
considered.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota has looked awful over the
last two weeks, failing to score double-digit fantasy points in
either game. He had scored 20+ fantasy points in four of his five
games prior, and he does come with some value. This is somewhat
of a difficult matchup, though, as the Redskins are allowing only
241.0 passing yards per game. They have allowed 23 passing touchdowns,
while recording 14 interceptions. Mariota could struggle if Tennessee
gets out to an early lead again, which has happened previously
this season.
Corey Davis simply cannot be trusted at this point in the season,
but he’s the only receiving option for Tennessee that should
be considered. He has totaled only five receptions for 54 yards
over the last two weeks, but he had scored a touchdown in three
of his four games prior. Tennessee is relatively simple, as when
Mariota finds success, Davis generally does as well. With Mariota
potentially struggling in a game that could get out of hand quick,
the same should be thought of for Davis, although he does come
with some upside.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Derrick Henry has single-handedly taken
fantasy owners to the finals this season, totaling 408 yards and
six touchdowns on 50 carries over the last two weeks. Washington
is allowing 116.6 yards per game on the ground this season, while
also allowing 11 rushing touchdowns. It’s clear that Tennessee
wants to ride Henry, and he should see 20+ carries in this matchup.
It’s impossible to not feel he comes with some risk, but
this is another great matchup. Dion Lewis comes with some upside,
as well, but he is finally playing behind Henry in the Tennessee
offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While the Ravens as a team have been fairly
successful since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback, there’s
really no denying that the passing game has practically come to
a complete halt. Jackson has not yet topped 180 passing yards
in a game and he has thrown for just four total touchdown passes
in his five starts. The lack of volume simply puts too much of
a cap on the passing game as a whole to make any of the Baltimore
pass catchers into viable fantasy options, other than in the deepest
of leagues as touchdown-only options. But even without an effective
passing game, Jackson himself remains a very solid fantasy contributor
as he continues to score somewhere between 15 to 20 fantasy points
per game, mostly due to his rushing ability. Jackson is averaging
85 rushing yards per game. That gives him an amazing floor with
upside to strive for if he and his receivers can get on the same
page. Jackson is a low-end QB1 in this matchup against the Chargers
who actually held Patrick Mahomes somewhat in check this past
week.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: The Baltimore running game has been a confusing
situation for most of the year and just when we thought we might
finally be getting some clarity in the form of Gus Edwards, along
came Kenneth Dixon to muddy the waters once again. Dixon has slowly
been working himself into the lineup over the past few weeks and
actually out-snapped Edwards for the first time this past week.
While Edwards still led the team with 19 carries which he took
for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs this past week,
there has to be concern about his role in the offense in what
should be a more competitive matchup against the Chargers this
week. Edwards has been a complete non-factor in the passing game
this season and is on a historic pace for lack of targets given
his playing time.
Dixon, on the other hand, is a much more well-rounded back who
has skills as a receiver. The Ravens haven’t passed a whole
lot to their backs since Jackson took over at quarterback, but
a lot of that is because they have led in many games and preferred
to just hand the ball to the backs as opposed to utilize the short
passing game. While Edwards has certainly been the better fantasy
option between the two thus far, there’s absolutely a chance
that Dixon ends up seeing more playing time given the potential
game script in this game. That makes both players highly volatile
and risky for seasonal leagues and even for DFS.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chargers earned a huge road win over
the Chiefs this past week and much of that can be attributed to
the leadership and production of quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers
threw two interceptions for just the second time this season,
but his 313 yards and two touchdowns - most of which came after
Keenan Allen got knocked out of the game - were the difference
maker. Allen is expected to be back this week after the hip injury,
but Rivers once again showed that he’s capable of producing
fantasy-relevant performances even without his top target. He
remains one of the safest options in all of fantasy, but he does
have a very difficult matchup this week against the Ravens and
their second-ranked fantasy defense against the quarterback.
With Allen out, it was Mike Williams who had the big day in Week
15, catching a pair of touchdown passes and the game-sealing two
point conversion, along with a rushing touchdown. It was truly
a coming-out party for the second-year receiver. Williams is a
WR2 if Allen is unable to play due to the high target share and
red zone utilization he should see, but he’s more of a Flex
option if Allen is on the field. Allen himself is a risky play
this week due to the matchup as well as his health, so think of
him as more of a mid-to-low-level WR2 this week.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: With Melvin Gordon expected to be back
on the field this week, the combination of Justin Jackson and
Austin Ekeler go back to being non-starters for fantasy purposes.
Gordon was reportedly very close to playing this past week and
likely would have if the Chargers weren’t playing on Thursday
night, but he’s now had more than a week to recover and
he should be back to being a bell cow RB1 for fantasy purposes.
The Ravens are obviously an elite fantasy defense, but Gordon
is such a workhorse that he’s been able to battle through
even tough matchups this season and produce great fantasy days.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Panthers have struggled a bit against
the pass this season, allowing 250.0 yards per game in 2018. They
have also allowed 28 passing touchdowns, while recording only
12 interceptions. Matt Ryan has found plenty of success, averaging
307.6 yards and 2.1 touchdowns on 38.4 pass attempts per game.
He has struggled on the road this season, but he’s coming
off of two consecutive solid road games, suggesting he’ll
find success this week. The only concern is a blowout, as Carolina
will be without Cam Newton.
Julio Jones has been an elite option all season, averaging 7.1
receptions for 107.9 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 10.9 targets
per game. He has been one of the most consistent options in the
NFL, and he can be treated as such, even in a potential blowout.
Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are two solid options behind Jones,
but there simply may not be enough volume for them to perform
well. For what it’s worth, Sanu is the safer bet of the
duo, while Ridley comes with significantly more upside. Austin
Hooper (ankle) only saw one target as he dealt with an injury
against the Cardinals last week, but he had found success in five
consecutive games before that. In those games, he averaged 5.6
receptions for 39.0 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 7.0 targets per
game. He makes a solid option at tight end, especially with his
touchdown potential.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith have been
placed on the IR, leaving Tevin Coleman to play major snaps for
Atlanta. He’s coming off of a massive game against the Cardinals,
rushing for 145 yards and one touchdown, although he only saw
11 carries. He makes a risky option against Carolina, who is allowing
only 101.9 rushing yards per game this season. They have allowed
12 rushing touchdowns though, and Coleman could see extra carries
in the event of a blowout. Brian Hill and Jeremy Langford will
backup Coleman on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There’s very little to like about
the Carolina passing attack. Cam Newton has been ruled out, leaving
Taylor Heinicke to draw the start. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel
come with upside because of their big play ability, but they also
come with far too much risk. Atlanta is allowing 251.0 passing
yards per game this season and they have also allowed 28 passing
touchdowns, while recording only 11 interceptions. While the matchup
stands out, there’s simply no reason to start anyone relying
on Heinicke at this point in the season.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Atlanta is also allowing 126.1 rushing
yards per game and 16 rushing touchdowns this season. Christian
McCaffrey has been playing an elite amount of snaps for Carolina,
and that will change this week. With that being said, McCaffrey
could see a similar workload, even if his snaps aren’t the
same. Through 14 games, he’s averaging 124.8 yards and 0.9
touchdowns on 20.6 touches (6.7 receptions) per game. Atlanta
has struggled to defend running backs out of the backfield and
Heinicke could check down to McCaffrey at a high rate this weekend.
He’s the only safe option on the team, and the only one
that should truly be used.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jeff Driskel did something that Drew Brees,
Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and
Cam Newton did not do last week: He threw a passing touchdown.
Week 15 of the NFL season proved to be one of the worst weeks
in recent memory for fantasy quarterbacks, with only two quarterbacks
throwing for at least 300 yards (Rivers, Goff) and the majority
of top-12 fantasy quarterbacks failing to throw even one measly
touchdown.
Although Driskel proved to be one of the few quarterbacks who
did throw a passing TD, he still finished outside the top 12 at
the position due to the fact that he threw for just 130 yards
and an interception as Joe Mixon and the Bengals defense took
care of the visiting Oakland Raiders.
Fantasy owners playing in the championship week hopefully are
not left with a decision of whether or not to play Driskel for
their title. The 25-year-old journeyman backup from Louisiana
Tech has yet to throw for more than 240 yards and two touchdowns
in any of his three career starts, and the Browns are playing
inspired football under interim head coach Gregg Williams after
limiting the Broncos to just 16 points last week.
To make matters worse, wide receiver Tyler Boyd suffered an MCL
sprain last week against the Raiders and will likely miss this
game and the remainder of the season. The loss of Boyd theoretically
opens to the door for more targets and opportunities for John
Ross, Alex Ericson, and Cody Core, but discerning who will be
the player to get the boost in production is difficult and a risky
proposition in the fantasy championship.
With the Bengals playing host to a Raiders team that allowed
the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends there was optimism
in the fantasy community that C.J. Uzomah would finally post that
big game so many analysts thought he could deliver. Instead, the
Uzi managed just one catch for 27 yards on five targets.
On paper, the matchup looks attractive for Driskel and the Bengals
with Cleveland allowing the 12th-most points to opposing wide
receivers. But last week proved that Driskel and the Bengal receiving
options are risky plays regardless of the matchup and should be
avoided if possible.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: A player that should not be avoided is
running back Joe Mixon. The second-year player from Oklahoma rushed
for 129 and two touchdowns against the Raiders last week, reaching
at least eight fantasy points for the seventh consecutive week.
During that span, Mixon has three games of at least 19 fantasy
points, and three games over 100 rushing yards.
It will be interesting to see if Gregg Williams implements a
similar defensive scheme against the Bengals that he used last
week against Phillip Lindsay and the Broncos. Williams played
a single high safety most of the game with Jabril Peppers up in
the box to stop the run. The Browns dared the Broncos to beat
them in the air and Case Keenum could not come through.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The majority of skill position players
will fantasy value in this game reside on the sideline of the
Browns, including rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. The first
overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft ranks 21st overall among fantasy
quarterbacks this season with 20.7 points per game.
Over the past five weeks, Mayfield is the No.10 quarterback,
ahead of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees,
Cam Newton, and Jared Goff. In hindsight, the owners of those
other heavily owned quarterbacks would love a chance to play Mayfield
over their otherwise stud QB over the past few games, especially
those who were burned by Brees and Goff.
Mayfield and the Browns passing game should finish the fantasy
season off with a bang against a Bengals defense that ranks second
in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 20th in points to
wide receivers. Prior to last week’s game against the Raiders,
the Bengals allowed a wide receiver to score at least ten points
in all but two games this season, including Antonio Calloway of
the Browns when the two teams played against each other Week 12
at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Bengals have played better on defense in the three games
since head coach Marvin Lewis took over play-calling duties, limiting
Case Keenum, Philip Rivers, and Derek Carr to one passing touchdown
each. Prior to that span, nearly every opposing quarterback reached
at least 20 fantasy points, including 30-point games from Cam
Newton, Matt Ryan, and Patrick Mahomes.
One of the reasons why the Browns have found success on offense
over the past month is their success running the ball with Nick
Chubb and Mayfield spreading the ball around to all of his receivers
instead of focusing most of his attention on Jarvis Landry. The
correlation between Landry’s targets going down and the
Browns record improving is just fine for Cleveland fans, but not
great news for Landry’s fantasy owners. He is a strong low-end
No.2 play this week against the Bengals, but the likelihood of
a massive game based on his volume as of late is low.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Nick Chubb owners should be licking their
chops at the prospect of a monster game in the fantasy championship
against a Bengals defense that is downright dreadful against the
run.
Chubb ranks tenth overall among running backs over the past five
games with an average of 15.6 points per game. With a touchdown
or at least 100 rushing yards in each game dating back to Week
9 against the Chiefs, Chubb has been a model of consistency for
patient owners who drafted the second round pick hoping for an
opportunity.
A home matchup against a Bengals defense that mentally is already
on vacation is exactly what you want in the playoffs. When that
matchup comes against a team that has allowed a whopping 20 total
touchdowns in 14 games to opposing running backs, you should be
well in line to win your fantasy championship.
Bucs at Cowboys
- (Katz) Line: DAL -7.0 Total: 48.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Did you know that Jameis Winston is top
five in QBR this season? It seems impossible for a guy who was
basically benched twice and only one fewer interception (13) than
touchdowns (14). Winston was completely shut down by the elite
Ravens secondary last week, completing just over half his passes
for 157 yards and a pick. Things will not get much easier against
the Cowboys. While the Cowboys are coming off a huge (but expected)
let down, this is the same defense that shut down Drew Brees and
they are far more effective in Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed
just 19 passing touchdowns all season and are allowing 224 passing
yards per game.
Mike Evans made due against the Ravens last week (4-121) and
while he’ll see a lot of shutdown corner, Byron Jones, Evans
has rarely busted this season, even if he hasn’t hit his
ceiling as much as fantasy owners would like. The Cowboys only
allow 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Chris Godwin
and Adam Humphries each could have solid days, but their usage
is too inconsistent to trust. Cameron Brate remains a strong red
zone option in a depleted TE field.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Barber’s 85 yards on 19 carries
was very impressive against the Ravens defense. He even managed
to fall into the end zone. The Cowboys only allow 3.7 yards per
carry and their overall strong run defense weighs more heavily
than their letdown against the Colts last week where Marlon Mack
ran all over them. The Bucs are going to struggle to move the
ball in what should be a bounce back performance by the defense,
making Barber an uninspiring option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott had his first game without
a touchdown since the opening week of the season, which is not
surprising given that the Cowboys scored zero points. The team
was riding hot on a five game win streak and the stars were just
perfectly aligned for the team to lay an egg. I wouldn’t
look too much into it. Prescott and Amari Cooper will rebound
this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed 30 passing touchdowns
this season. Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley aren’t fantasy
options.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott was the lone bright spot
for the Cowboys last week, touching the ball 25 times for a total
of 128 yards. The last time Zeke failed to reach 100 total yards
was Week 7. The Bucs allow 4.8 yards per carry to opposing rushers
and have allowed 17 rushing scores. The Cowboys are going to be
able to move the ball much better than last week, which should
present multiple scoring opportunities. Elliott is going to find
the end zone this week and will likely find himself on a lot of
league winning rosters.
Vikings @ Lions
- (Swanson) Line: MIN -6.0 Total: 42.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The first year of Kirk Cousins’
three-year $84 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings has
been a mixed bag of strong performances sandwiched between games
that have left Vikings fans questioning whether or not the team
made the right move.
From a fantasy perspective, Cousins has been a low-end QB1 for
the majority of the season and a disappointment when you consider
the weapons he has at wide receiver and running back. The former
Washington Redskin threw for four or more touchdowns just once
this season, while posting six games with just one passing TD.
Adam Thielen looked to be one of the biggest steals in recent
history with eight consecutive games of at least 100 yards to
start the season. He has since posted just one game of over 100
yards and three receiving touchdowns and enters the fantasy championship
week as the No.6 ranked WR in the league.
Stefon Diggs has a receiving touchdown in four of his last six
games while reaching at least 115 receiving yards in two of those
contests. It is interesting that Cousins is one of only a few
quarterbacks to boast two wide receivers in the top 15 in fantasy
points per game, yet he barely ranks as a QB1 himself.
Fantasy owners looking to start a skill position player in the
Minnesota passing game, including running back Dalvin Cook, who
has been excellent over the past month after missing most of the
season with a hamstring injury, should be pleased with this week’s
matchup against the Lions.
Detroit ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks while allowing the 12th-most points to opposing
wide receivers and running backs. Although there is always the
concern of a divisional foe like the Lions looking to play playoff
spoiler to the Vikings, the skill position players for Minnesota
pair well against a Lions team that gave up 108 yards and a receiving
touchdown to Robert Foster of Buffalo last week.
Look for Minnesota to exploit the middle of the field from the
slot with Thielen against Teez Tabor or DeShawn Shead, two average
cover slot corners who will find it difficult to cover the size
and route running skills of Thielen.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Back Thoughts: If you managed to make it to the playoffs
with Dalvin Cook missing the majority of the season with a hamstring
injury, you should pat yourself on the back. Your reward has been
the excellent play by Cook over the past five weeks as the No.9
ranked running back in points per game.
Cook is a dynamic pass-catching running back who is one of the
most elusive players in the open field when healthy. His four
touchdowns and 438 yards in the past five games helped propel
owners deep into the playoffs, and his matchup this week against
a Lions team that ranks 12 in fantasy points against running backs
could make Cook a league-winner.
Look for Cook to make the majority of his runs on plays designed
to go off tackle as the Vikings look to avoid the middle of the
defensive line and DL Damon Harrison. Detroit has also been weak
against pass-catching running backs this season and is tied for
sixth in the league with four receiving touchdowns out of the
backfield to running backs.
Harrison missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury and
could be limited on Sunday. Should Snacks Harrison miss this game,
Cook should find it very easy to break big chunk runs against
the Lions.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The loss of Marvin Jones to a season-ending
knee injury and trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles took away two
of the three favorite targets of quarterback Matthew Stafford,
making an already borderline fantasy option unusable in even the
deepest of leagues.
Stafford has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game dating
back to Week 10 against the Bears, and the former first overall
pick has just two passing touchdowns in his last four games. To
put Stafford’s ineptitude into perspective; he has the same
number of passing touchdowns as running back Christian McCaffrey
in the previous two weeks.
Needless to say, you do not want to start Stafford in anything
but the most attractive matchup, and even then he is not likely
to score more than 20 fantasy points. To make matters worse, Stafford
has been limited with a back injury this week.
The only pass-catching option on the team worthy of a start is
wide receiver, Kenny Golladay. A budding star who ranks 25th in
fantasy points per game despite posting nearly a goose egg against
the Cardinals Week 14, Golladay’s volume in the passing
game and ability to make contested catches even against the best
cornerbacks makes him worthy of a start as a low-end No.2 WR.
Golladay was limited in practice on Wednesday with a chest injury
and is also dealing with a lingering quad ailment. But if he is
active, owners should give Golladay a start with the upside of
80 yards and a touchdown.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: It is amazing that it took nearly an entire
season for the coaching staff of the Lions to figure out that
LeGarrette Blount is slow and not very good at football. Head
coach Matt Patricia and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter continued
to insist on carries for the veteran running back even when rookie
Kerryon Johnson was ripping off 100-yard games in the middle of
the season.
Blount really looked impressive this past week when he gained
nine yards on seven carries for a whopping 1.2 yards per tote.
The Lions would have been just as well off having Matthew Stafford
quarterback sneak nine times at that rate.
Zach Zenner clearly looked to be the better for the two early
down backs with ten carries for 45 yards and a touchdown, while
Theo Riddick looked fine with 56 yards on 10 touches.
On paper, the way to attack the Vikings this season as opposed
to previous years is by running the ball as opposed to passing.
Over the past five games, the Vikings rank 8th in points allowed
to opposing backs, with Kalen Ballage, Chris Carson, and the Develin
himself, James Develin, each double-digit posting games.
The Lions will no doubt look to establish the run and make this
into a low scoring game. It is even possible that Zenner, Blount,
or perhaps even Riddick scores a rushing touchdown against Mike
Zimmer’s defense. But I am not willing to risk my fantasy
championship on trying to guess who might score from that backfield,
and frankly, neither should you.
Giants @ Colts
- (Bales) Line: IND -9.0 Total: 47.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts have featured a surprisingly
good defense this season. They’re allowing 238.0 passing
yards per game, while also allowing only 19 passing touchdowns.
They have also recorded 12 interceptions. Eli Manning has struggled
for the most part this season, averaging 263.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns
on 35.9 pass attempts per game. Manning could struggle with Odell
Beckham Jr. expected to miss this week, and he’s far from
a great option in a relatively difficult matchup.
With Beckham expected to miss this game, Sterling Shepard will
likely be the most targeted receiver on the team. He has seen
six or more targets in each of his last four games, but he’s
only averaging 3.0 receptions for 29.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns
on 6.8 targets. Evan Engram finally looks healthy, and he makes
a significantly better option than Shepard. He posted an 8/75
line on 12 targets last week and a 3/77/1 line on five targets
the week prior. The other receivers are splitting snaps, and none
of them should be considered.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Saquon Barkley is coming off of his worst
game of the season, but he’s averaging 129.2 yards and 0.9
touchdowns on 21.8 touches (5.9 receptions) per game. Aside from
last week, he was consistently scoring 20 fantasy points per week
with the upside for 35+ fantasy points. Indianapolis is only allowing
103.6 rushing yards per game, while holding their opponents to
only 10 rushing touchdowns. While the matchup is less than ideal,
Barkley is essentially a matchup proof player because of his versatility.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck has been a relatively consistent
option throughout the season, averaging 282.2 yards and 2.4 touchdowns
on 39.8 pass attempts per game. He gets a matchup against the
Giants, who are allowing 237.0 passing yards per game. They have
allowed 18 touchdowns, while recording 15 interceptions, as well.
Luck saw limited pass attempts last week because of a relatively
quick blowout, and that may be the case again this week.
T.Y. Hilton hasn’t practiced in weeks, but that hasn’t
slowed down his play during games. On the season, he owns a 67
/ 1,071 / 6 line on 106 targets in 12 games. He has caught fire
over his last five games, averaging 7.6 receptions for 128.2 yards
and 0.4 touchdowns on 10.4 targets per game. Eric Ebron is the
other focal point of the receiving group, although he wasn’t
needed in their last game. Excluding that game, Ebron owns a 6.3
/ 63.7 / 1.0 line and 10.3 targets per game over his last three
games. There aren’t any other receivers that need to be
considered here this week.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: New York has struggled against the run
this season, allowing 128.4 rushing yards per game. They have
also allowed 15 rushing touchdowns. Marlon Mack has found plenty
of success this season, averaging 75.5 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing
touchdowns on 15.8 carries per game. He’s coming off one
of his best games of the season, totaling 139 yards and two touchdowns
on 27 carries. Indianapolis could pull ahead in this game, leaving
Mack to handle plenty of carries in the fourth quarter.
Jaguars at Dolphins
- (Katz) Line: MIA -4.0 Total: 38.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles absolutely deserved to be
benched because entering 2018, he was not one of the 60 best QBs
in the NFL. The problem is that, somehow, Cody Kessler is worse.
What can I even say about this passing game? Dede Westbrook is
the only receiver worth rostering in fantasy and this passing
offense is too anemic and low volume to make him anything more
than a bench guy. The Keelan Cole experiment is long over and
Donte Moncrief simply isn’t good. Just bench everyone.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette saw just one carry in
the second half last week. Nothing with this team can surprise
me anymore given that they entered the season with Bortles and
Kessler as their quarterbacks and decided drafting a running back
at fourth overall was more important than taking Deshaun Watson
or Patrick Mahomes. Fournette is also dealing with a foot injury,
which is nothing new. Whether it’s Fournette or T.J. Yeldon,
the starting running back for the Jaguars couldn’t ask for
a better matchup against a Dolphins team allowing 4.8 yards per
carry and 49.8 receiving yards per game to running backs. If Fournette
is less than 100%, he’s a huge risk to exit the game early
and not return given that this game doesn’t matter. If Yeldon
gets the nod, he’s a must start.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill is averaging just 24.5
passing attempts per game. In his nine games started, he has thrown
for 204 yards or fewer in six of them. He’s also thrown
multiple touchdowns in six games. The Jaguars allow 199 passing
yards per game and have allowed just 16 passing touchdowns this
season. It will be tough sledding out there for Kenny Stills,
the only Dolphins receiver you can even consider playing. Danny
Amendola has five receptions in his last three games total and
I actually had to just go look up whether DeVante Parker even
played last week. I should be ashamed of myself for even mentioning
DeVante Parker. Bench all Dolphins.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: With Frank Gore done for the season, it’s
obviously the Kenyan Drake show given how efficient he’s
been all season…right? Right. Wrong! Drake did play 53%
of the snaps, but rookie Kalen Ballage played 49% and absolutely
dominated with 123 yards on 12 carries. At the bare minimum, Ballage
will have a sizable role this week. I wouldn’t be surprised
if he played ahead of Drake given that there are two games left
in the season and it would behoove Miami to see what Drake can
do. Of course, applying rational thinking when it comes to NFL
teams is typically a fool’s errand. Regardless, if you need
a spot starter, you could do worse than Ballage, but temper expectations
against a Jaguars team that ranks top five in fantasy points against
by opposing RB1s.
Bills at Patriots
- (Katz) Line: NE -13.5 Total: 44.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Since Josh Allen returned from injury,
only Patrick Mahomes has averaged more fantasy points per game.
Do not confuse Allen for a good quarterback; he most certainly
is not, but we’ve seen truly horrendous QBs post QB1 numbers
because of rushing (looking at you, Tim Tebow). Allen is barely
completing 50% of his passes, but he’s scored multiple touchdowns
in three of his last four games and rushed for at least 99 yards
in three of them. The Patriots are heavy favorites, which means
Allen’s passing volume will be up and we know he will scramble
making him a viable option this week. As for his receivers, we
haven’t spoken much about Bills WRs this year because of
how terrible they’ve been. Recently, Robert Foster and Isaiah
McKenzie have become sneaky fantasy viable, and the Patriots are
allowing 68 yards per game to opposing WR1s. In a game that should
feature passing volume, Foster and McKenzie are at least in the
conversation.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory both sat
out last week, but both are on track to play this week. Regardless
of who starts at RB, you can’t start him. Keith Ford is
currently the lone remaining fully healthy back after Marcus Murphy
was placed on IR. The Patriots allow five yards per carry to opposing
rushers, but you still can’t trust any Bills running back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It is time to put to rest the Angry Tom
Brady narrative. If Angry Tom Brady didn’t make an appearance
last week following the Patriots loss via the Miami Miracle, he’s
gone for good. The Patriots simply aren’t that good anymore.
Brady is coming off another single touchdown game and Rob Gronkowski
is barely a TE1.
Josh Gordon provided far more fantasy value than I ever thought
he would, but, sadly, his career is almost certainly over. Clearly,
whatever he’s dealing with is beyond mere substance abuse
and transcends football so hopefully he gets the help he needs.
As for the fantasy implications, Chris Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson
will see increased snaps, but neither is a trusted option. Julian
Edelman has been mostly reliable, though, and has seen 23 targets
over the past two weeks. The Bills allow just 10.6 fantasy points
per game to opposing slot receivers and Tre’Davious White
is an elite shutdown corner. There’s simply no way to predict
what the Patriots are going to do offensively so you start the
guys you trust.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The return of Rex Burkhead has turned
this backfield into an Eagles-like situation. Burkhead, Sony Michel,
and James White are all seeing the field and sapping each other’s
value. White was once an every week ppr RB1. Now, he shouldn’t
even be owned anymore. It’s now abundantly clear that White’s
early season usage was a product of injuries and not a purposeful
plan. White only sees the field during passing situations, while
Burkhead and Michel split early down and goal line work. The situation
is just one to avoid even in a game that should feature positive
game script.
Packers at Jets
- (Katz) Line: GB -3.0 Total: 47.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: There were some whispers of the Packers
potentially shutting down Aaron Rodgers a la Cam Newton, but Rodgers
stated he is going to play and I believe him. The Jets are a slightly
below average pass defense; nothing that should scare Rodgers.
That doesn’t make Rodgers a must start, though. The consensus
overall QB1 heading into the season is just barely a QB1 at all.
Rodgers played just six games in 2017 and had three or more touchdowns
in four of them. He hasn’t thrown more than three in a game
all season and has done it just twice in 2018 and not since Week
5.
The one guy you know you can trust is Davante Adams. Fantasy’s
most prolific receiver hasn’t scored under 16 fantasy points
all season. He hasn’t splashed much, but he has literally
never failed. Against a mediocre Jets defense allowing 14.8 fantasy
points to opposing WR1s, Adams is a lock to make that average
go up. The Packers WR2 is a medley of Marquez Valdes-Scantling,
Equanimeous St. Brown, and Randall Cobb, with a sprinkle of Jake
Kumerow. Jimmy Graham has been irrelevant for months.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: With Aaron Jones in IR, we are back to
the Jamaal Williams show in Green Bay. The Packers’ season
is over and they know Williams isn’t the future for them
at the position so they have no reason to not ride him as much
as they can. Williams is in line for considerable volume where
he should see 15+ carries and 5+ targets as a true workhorse.
The problem, of course, is that Williams isn’t very good
at football. With a number of running backs injured or mired in
timeshares, Williams is a pretty safe RB2 that should be game
script proof against a middling Jets run defense allowing 4.5
yards per carry.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Darnold had one of his better games
as a pro last week with 253 yards and two touchdowns while completing
63% of his passes. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the
ball over. Robby Anderson has emerged as the Jets WR1. He’s
scored in two straight games and seen 18 targets over that span.
The Jets should have to throw against the Packers, who allow 15.3
fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. After Anderson, the
uninspiring combination of Jermaine Kearse, Andre Roberts, and
Chris Herndon can be safely ignored.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Despite losing a fumble, Elijah McGuire
still played on 75% of the Jets offensive snaps last week. He
is the clear lead back in an Isaiah Crowell-less backfield with
Trenton Cannon merely serving as a change of pace. McGurie touched
the ball 21 times last week for a mediocre 71 total yards, but
he did find the end zone. He is a volume passed option against
a Packers defense that ranks in the bottom five when adjusted
for defense against pass catching RBs.
Texans at Eagles
- (Katz) Line: PHI -1.0 Total: 46.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson continued his touchdown
streak last week, having now thrown exactly one or two touchdowns
in every game this season, except for Week 8 where he threw five.
The Eagles have been a bottom third defense this season and have
been particularly vulnerable through the air, despite Jared Goff’s
face plant last week.
DeAndre Hopkins is coming off one of the best games of his career.
He’s quietly having a very strong season with at least 74
yards and a touchdown in every game. The Eagles are allowing a
league worst 19.6 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s and
it’s not particularly close. Hopkins should be able to do
whatever he wants this week. Demaryius Thomas has gone over 63
yards receiving just once all season and zero times in Houston.
No one else on the Texans is fantasy relevant.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller is dealing with an ankle
injury that is not particularly serious, but Miller also isn’t
particularly good or that important to the Texans offense. They
will be just fine with Alfred Blue and perhaps D’Onta Foreman
should Miller miss this game. The Eagels allow 4.9 yards per carry
to opposing rushers and the Texans should find themselves in scoring
position quite frequently. This is a pretty nice opportunity for
whomever shoulders the load for the Texans. Unfortunately, if
it’s not Miller, I don’t think you can be sure Blue
will be the guy and you certainly can’t trust Foreman to
see any significant usage coming off an Achilles tear.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you’re looking for a quarterback
to stream this week, you could do worse than Nick Foles. I am
no fan of the Eagles, but I can’t help but semi-root for
Foles to win out and go on another Super Bowl run, just to see
the reaction from everyone. Foles completed 77% of his passes
last week for 270 yards and an interception, but he easily could
have had multiple touchdowns; the Eagles just happened to run
for all of their scores. Alshon Jeffery was Foles’ primary
option, catching all eight of his targets for 160 yards. Foles
completely ignored Zach Ertz because of a little known secret
about Ertz – he’s not as good as his numbers suggest.
Ertz is a reliable guy that thrives on volume, but he’s
still more safety blanket than purposeful target. If Jeffery is
working, that’s where Foles will continue to go. Fortunately,
the Texans allow a second worst 11.6 fantasy points per game to
opposing TE1s, which means, at least for this week, Ertz should
be part of the game plan.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Josh Adams fell into the end zone last
week, which was great. He also led all Eagles running backs in
snaps, which is also great. The problem is that number was just
38% with Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles at 31% each. This
is back to a three man committee. Smallwood scored the other two
Eagles’ touchdowns, which was more accident than anything
else. With this back to being a full blown timeshare, you cannot
start any Eagles back, regardless of the opponent.
Rams @ Cardinals
- (Caron) Line: LAR -14.5 Total: 44.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: There may not be a colder starting quarterback
in the league right now than Jared Goff. With just one touchdown
pass over his past three games along with seven interceptions,
Goff has simply fallen apart when fantasy owners have needed him
the most. His struggles have also translated over to his top two
receivers, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, who have both been
catching a handful of passes each week but have not been particularly
effective from a fantasy standpoint. In fact, it was Josh Reynolds
who led the team in targets in Week 15 although that translated
to just five catches for 70 yards. While Goff is almost certainly
due to bounce back at some point, it might not come this week
against the Cardinals who are actually still a pretty solid fantasy
defense against opposing quarterbacks. You could do worse than
Goff as a low-end QB1 if you needed him, but realistically his
lack of production has to be a major concern that makes him more
of a QB2 in this matchup.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: The fantasy world will be eagerly waiting
to find out the status of running back Todd Gurley who has not
practiced this week as of Thursday and is not believed to be on
the practice field on Friday. This is the kiss of death for many
players, but Gurley is good enough and has earned enough respect
that he might still end up on the field even if he doesn’t
practice all week. The concern, of course, is that the Rams could
get out to a fairly large lead against a poor Cardinals team which
would almost certainly lead to Gurley making an early exit from
the game to preserve his health for the team’s upcoming
playoff run. That makes him a risky option, but still one who
seasonal fantasy owners need to have in their lineup in championship
week. DFS players would probably be wise to avoid this backfield,
however, as we just don’t have much clarity. Rookie John
Kelly and veteran C.J. Anderson could both see work if Gurley
does sit, so the backup situation is also too unknown to trust.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Having thrown for fewer than 150 yards
in four of his past five games, Josh Rosen simply has not been
effective enough to make anyone in this Arizona passing game a
particularly exciting fantasy option here in Week 16. The Rams
defense is one that could certainly exploit this great matchup
and provide significant points for fantasy owners who are looking
for a defense. The only player who’s worth considering in
this passing game is veteran wideout Larry Fitzgerald who has
had a down season overall but has caught 12 passes over his past
two games. Fitzgerald remains a low-end WR2 in PPR formats and
could even fit in as a Flex in non-PPR matchups. He’s not
very exciting but he also shouldn’t give you a donut at
the position if you put him in your lineup.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Week 15 was another “touchdown saved
the day” type of performance for running back David Johnson
who produced just 33 rushing yards on 11 carries in the Cardinals’
blowout loss to the Falcons. The lack of work in the passing game
when the Cardinals fall behind in games is the biggest concern
in this one because Arizona has been downright terrible in most
games and the Rams are still one of the best offenses in the entire
league. If Johnson isn’t catching five or more passes, there’s
a real chance that he produces under 100 total yards and becomes
a very touchdown-dependent option. He’s been producing a
good number of touchdowns despite the Cardinals’ overall
offensive woes, but that’s still a major concern. Think
of him as more of a high-end RB2 this week.
Bears @ 49ers
- (Caron) Line: CHI -4.0 Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky bounced
back into fantasy relevance this past week following a disgustingly
awful performance against the Rams in Week 14. Trubisky threw
for 235 yards and a pair of touchdowns and he remains one of the
most mobile quarterbacks in the game. Unfortunately, he’s
spreading the ball around the field too much for any one of his
receivers to be a spectacular fantasy play even in what should
be a good overall matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco has
allowed 12 passing touchdowns over their past five games while
not forcing a single interception over that span. In fact, quarterbacks
have only thrown a combined two interceptions against this 49ers
defense all year. Trubisky is a safe floor low-end QB1 in this
matchup who also has some upside if he ends up throwing a couple
of touchdown passes. Allen Robinson is the top option in the passing
game, followed by tight end Trey Burton who did get into the end
zone this past week, but depth pass catchers Anthony Miller and
Taylor Gabriel simply aren’t seeing enough targets to be
taken seriously in fantasy even in what is a pretty good matchup
on paper.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Saved by a touchdown on just over 3.0 yards
per carry this past week, Jordan Howard has become pretty much
a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option in many games. Of course his
usage has been much higher in games where the Bears have been
ahead on the scoreboard as most expect they will be this week
against the 49ers, so this is probably one of the better weeks
to get him in your lineup. The risk is that the 49ers might stick
around in the game a little longer than some expect due to being
the home team, which would certainly hurt Howard and probably
help Tarik Cohen. Cohen has been the better PPR fantasy option
in this backfield so far in 2018 and he’s now gone over
12 PPR fantasy points in five of his past six games heading into
this week’s contest. Cohen’s 68 receptions are among
the most in the league and he’s a great high-floor option
in PPR formats this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Nick Mullens struggled a bit against the
Seahawks this past week as he threw for just one touchdown pass
on the day along with 275 yards and no interceptions. It wasn’t
a terrible week, but it wasn’t anything that should give
fantasy owners much excitement heading into this Week 16 matchup
against the Bears. Chicago held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers
off the scoreboard from a passing touchdown standpoint this past
week and there’s a real shot that they do it again this
week. The only receivers in this passing game who should be looked
at for fantasy purposes are tight end George Kittle who is an
elite option at the position and rookie Dante Pettis who remains
the most-targeted 49ers wide receiver.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Back on the field this past week, Matt
Breida immediately got back to contributing for fantasy owners
as he rushed for 50 yards and caught five passes for an additional
46 yards. He wasn’t particularly effective on a per-carry
basis as he had fewer than three yards per carry, but Breida’s
overall usage makes him a sneaky play even against the Bears and
their strong defense. If the 49ers fall behind, as most expect
they will, Breida should stay on the field and possibly see his
highest target share of the season. The only concern at this point
is whether or not Breida will actually play or not. He’s
dealing with a reaggrevation of the ankle injury he had and he
could end up being ruled out for this week’s game against
Chicago. If he is out, look for Jeff Wilson to step in and take
his place in the backfield. Wilson isn’t a terrible option
himself but he’s also not as physically skilled as Breida
and is a much riskier option against the Bears and their elite
defense.
Steelers @ Saints
- (Bales) Line: NO -6.0 Total: 53.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers get
an elite matchup against the Saints. New Orleans is allowing 263.0
passing yards per game this season. They have also allowed 25
passing touchdowns, while recording only 12 interceptions., Roethlisberger
is averaging 318.7 yards and 2.1 touchdowns on 41.4 pass attempts
per game. He’s been a consistent option, and we could see
his ceiling in a potential shootout this week.
Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the two focal points
of the Steelers passing attack, and that will be the case again
this week. Through 14 games, Brown is averaging 6.4 receptions
for 79.4 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on 10.6 targets per game. He
hasn’t been the elite Antonio Brown we all know and love,
but he still makes a great option in this matchup. Smith-Schuster
has taken the next step forward, averaging a 6.8 / 91.0 / 0.4
line on 10.1 targets per game. He was injured during the Steelers
practice on Thursday, but he’s expected to play this weekend.
Vance McDonald is a high upside option at tight end, but he hasn’t
been a consistent option throughout the season.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: James Conner is expected to sit once again
this week, leaving Jaylen Samuels to draw another start. After
seeing somewhat limited snaps against the Raiders, Samuels was
unleashed last week. He totaled 172 yards on 21 touches without
truly displaying his receiving potential. Samuels makes an elite
option because of his versatility, although New Orleans is only
allowing 79.1 rushing yards per game. They have allowed 10 rushing
touchdowns, though. Samuels ability to contribute in multiple
aspects of the game will make him a safe option but with a limited
ceiling.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers have only allowed 237.0 passing
yards per game this season, although they have also allowed 26
passing touchdowns. Furthermore, they have recorded only seven
interceptions. Drew Brees has been an elite option, averaging
320.8 yards and 3.3 touchdowns on 32.8 pass attempts per game
at home. This will be his first home game in four weeks, meaning
Brees should be able to get back on track this weekend.
Surprisingly, Michael Thomas is the only player in the Saints
passing attack that should be considered this week. Similarly
to Brees, Thomas has looked outstanding at home. Through six home
games, he’s averaging 8.7 receptions for 114.0 yards and
0.8 touchdowns on 10.0 targets per game. He’s expected to
be shadowed by Joe Haden in a difficult matchup, but Thomas has
found plenty of success in difficult matchups throughout the 2018
season.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts:. Through 14 games, Alvin Kamara is averaging
106.2 yards and 1.1 touchdowns on 18.9 touches (5.5 receptions)
per game. He’s a matchup proof player because of his versatility,
and he’ll be a major part in the Saints offense this weekend.
Mark Ingram has been a bit more inconsistent than Kamara because
of his dependency on touchdowns. Through 10 games, he’s
averaging 72.9 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 14.0 touches per game.
The Steelers have found success against the run, allowing only
96.9 rushing yards per game. They have also allowed 10 rushing
touchdowns in 2018 and the 2nd fewest fantasy points running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It seems almost silly to say that over
600 total passing yards and four touchdowns over his past two
games is being “held in check,” but that’s how
hot Patrick Mahomes has been this season. Sure, he hasn’t
put up monster games against two very good secondaries in the
Ravens and Chargers, but if that’s his floor, we can’t
be overly concerned about him and the Chiefs heading on the road
to Seattle to play the Seahawks. Seattle hasn’t been the
elite defense this season that they have been in the past but
they’re still no easy game for opposing passers. Still,
Mahomes and his top two targets, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce,
are must-starts in seasonal formats if you own them due to their
tremendous upside. The questions begin after those players, when
you look further down the roster at the depth receivers behind
Sammy Watkins, who is expected to be out again this week. Chris
Conley has had his moments but he’s been used pretty sparingly
as of late and is probably not a player we should be relying on
in this contest. Kelvin Benjamin is finally getting some playing
time, but he was held to just one catch for 17 yards this past
week and isn’t reliable enough yet to be in fantasy lineups.
Demarcus Robinson has actually been the most productive option
in the passing game after Kelce and Hill over the past few weeks,
but eight catches over his past three weeks is not enough to warrant
fantasy consideration either.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Damien Williams made fantasy owners very
happy this past week as he scored two touchdowns for the second
straight week, while adding 49 rushing yards and six catches for
74 yards. However, as good as he looked, it’s very likely
that he’ll take a back seat to the returning Spencer Ware
if he’s able to suit up. Unfortunately, given the time of
this game (Sunday evening), there’s a real chance that we
won’t have full clarity on the Chiefs backfield early enough
in the day to give us many options. Those who own both Ware and
Williams will likely be fine as they can just swap Ware out for
Williams if he’s unavailable to play. But even if Ware does
play, there’s a bit of a concern that Williams will break
into his playing time after performing well.
The Chiefs typically do use one “bell cow” type of
back, but Ware’s health is something the Chiefs will have
to keep in mind due to their upcoming playoff run. It’s
also worth considering that fellow running back Darrel Williams
also got into the end zone as a receiver in Week 15. This backfield
is very hazy so there’s a good chance that you have a better
option on your roster, especially in this tough road matchup against
Seattle, but the best case scenario from a fantasy standpoint
would be Ware being inactive which would mean Damien Williams
is as good as a mid-to-high-level RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson bounced back a bit this
past week against the 49ers after a disastrous Week 14 performance
against the Vikings. Wilson threw for 237 yards and a pair of
touchdowns against San Francisco, maintaining the almost absurdly
high touchdown rate that he’s been able to sustain throughout
the season despite a relatively low yards per game number.
This week he’ll face one of the best possible matchups
for opposing quarterbacks as he plays at home against the Chiefs
who rank dead last in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks
this season. Kansas City has been in so many shootouts that their
numbers may not directly indicate the skill set of their defense,
but all we care about is the end results from a fantasy standpoint.
Wilson will likely need to pass heavily in this game for the Seahawks
to win this game, and it’s a very important contest for
their team to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. 35-plus
pass attempts seems like almost a guarantee in this one, which
makes Wilson a solid QB1 and even opens the door for Doug Baldwin
and Tyler Lockett who have been an under-the-radar duo this season.
It’s been a few weeks since Lockett got into the end zone
but he’s still catching deep passes at an incredible rate
which is bound to translate into more scores again if he can keep
up that pace, while Baldwin scored twice this past week and is
a strong Flex option yet again.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks continue to be one of the
most powerful running games in the league this season and much
of that has been because they’ve been able to control the
pace of most of the games they’ve been in, thus allowing
a heavy workload for Chris Carson. Carson has been a non-factor
in the passing game, however, which is a big concern here in Week
16 where the Seahawks will likely have to pass the ball to keep
pace with the Chiefs. If the Seahawks do find themselves behind
on the scoreboard, there’s a very good chance that they
will practically abandon the running game, thus leading to much
less playing time for Carson and certainly would put the 22 rushing
attempts he’s had in each of his past two games out of reach.
Rashaad Penny missed this past week’s game with a knee
injury and while he’s probably the player with the better
pass catching skill set, it’s Mike Davis who is more likely
to have the role as the team’s primary back on passing downs.
Davis quietly caught a season-high eight passes for 63 yards this
past week against the 49ers and also has a seven-catch game on
his resume from earlier this season. Davis is a very deep option
only in PPR formats and he’s entirely game script-dependent,
but he’s certainly a player who could end up surprising
people and leading this team in fantasy points at the position
this week.
Broncos @ Raiders
- (Caron) Line: DEN -3.0 Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: With just three total touchdown passes
over his past three games and two games under 200 yards passing
over that span, it’s safe to say that Case Keenum remains
a non-starter for fantasy. However, that doesn’t mean that
we should completely avoid his receiving weapons. Sure, Courtland
Sutton has been disappointing and that’s probably the big
story here, but Tim Patrick surprisingly caught another five passes
for 65 yards this past week while DaeSean Hamilton again led the
team with seven catches for the second consecutive week. Hamilton
continues to play primarily the role that Emmanuel Sanders played
when he was healthy whereas Sutton and Patrick are somewhat splitting
the work that had been going to Demaryius Thomas earlier this
season. There’s no question that Sutton has the highest
pedigree in the bunch but he’s simply not being targeted
enough right now to warrant anything other than a flier as a Flex,
preferably in non-PPR formats. Hamilton is probably the safest
of the bunch, at least in PPR, given his high number of targets
and low depth of target thus allowing his catches to be more easily
pulled in, but he’s also likely the lowest-ceiling option
of the group. Patrick could find his way onto some DFS options
as a very cheap play against this bad Oakland secondary, but he
should probably be avoided in your typical seasonal league.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: After failing to exceed 30 yards on the
ground now in back-to-back weeks despite 14 carries in each contest,
it’s becoming clear that defenses are beginning to focus
on slowing down Phillip Lindsay and the Denver running game rather
than Case Keenum and the passing game. However, fantasy owners
should remain strong and keep Lindsay in their lineups this week
if for no other reason than that the Broncos have made it clear
that he’s their lead back and they’re now facing an
Oakland defense that has given up an average of a touchdown per
game to opposing running backs this season and the seventh-most
total fantasy points to running backs thus far in 2018. Lindsay
has also remained active in the passing game during his recent
mini-slump, catching four passes in each of his past two contests,
so there remains a pretty decent floor for the rookie. Devontae
Booker and fellow rookie Royce Freeman continue to pull some work
away from Lindsay, but not enough that we should consider him
anything lower than a high-end RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to whether Derek Carr
has suddenly improved or if he’s just giving it everything
he’s got down the stretch in 2018 in a desperate effort
to convince Jon Gruden that he’s still the quarterback of
the future in Oakland, but there’s no question that Carr
has been playing better as of late. Over his past three games,
Carr has thrown for an average of 290 yards per game and he’s
thrown six total touchdowns to no interceptions. He’s done
this while getting practically no consistent production out of
his running game.
During this stretch, veteran receiver Jordy Nelson has now caught
22 total passes for 233 yards after being held to just 353 yards
over Oakland’s first 11 games combined. Tight end Jared
Cook struggled in Week 15 against the Bengals, but had previously
delivered back-to-back 100-yard games, which has been practically
impossible this season for any tight end not named Travis Kelce,
Zach Ertz or George Kittle. This week the Raiders will host a
banged-up Denver secondary that has conceded an average of 24
fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over their past
seven contests. The Raiders are still among the least trustworthy
passing games in the league but there’s hope here for the
likes of Jared Cook and Jordy Nelson who should again be peppered
with enough targets to be fantasy relevant.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: The Oakland running game continues to be
a mess from a fantasy standpoint as Doug Martin produces horrible
per-carry rushing numbers but remains the player who the Oakland
coaching staff insists on feeding the ball to. Jalen Richard continues
to be a much more effective back on a per-touch basis, but he’s
simply not getting enough work to be considered anything more
than a decent floor Flex play in very deep leagues. Martin, meanwhile
is pretty much a touchdown-or-bust type of player and he’s
facing a Denver run defense that hasn’t conceded a running
back rushing touchdown since all the way back in Week 6. Neither
player’s matchup is particularly intriguing, so both are
a bench unless you’re in a very desperate situation.