Note: You can view the full FFToday July PPR Mock resuts here.

The great draft strategy debate. Should you take Aaron Rodgers or Luck early, or wait on your QB?

1. I noticed Aaron Rodgers was drafted 31st overall, 23 picks behind Andrew Luck.

The next quarterback drafted was Russell Wilson at No.64 overall. Then, there was a run on quarterbacks where eight were drafted within eleven spots of each other from No.75– No.85 overall. I am going to go out on a limb and say that in most drafts, you will not be able to get Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd round or Russell Wilson in the 6th. But more importantly, Luck is not two rounds better than Rodgers (if he’s even better than Rodgers at all). And Luck is certainly not five rounds better than Wilson. Yes, having Luck or Rodgers gives you a weekly edge at quarterback over the rest of your league. However, the edge Luck or Rodgers has over someone like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady is significantly less than the edge the top tier RBs and WRs have over those being drafted in rounds 7-8. Would you rather have Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas or Luck and Anquan Boldin? Obviously nothing is black and white and having Luck or Rodgers is nice, but when a quarterback like Tom Brady falls to the 8th round, you’re going to wish you had that elite WR or RB instead of the quarterback you took early.

2. I noticed that 19 rookies were drafted.

In 2014, there were roughly 15 rookies that were fantasy relevant for the majority of the season. In 2013, there were about eight and in 2012 there were about ten. I could go back further, but the point that everyone knows is clear – 2014 was an historic year when it comes to rookie production. One of the major pitfalls of not just a fantasy owner, but people in general, is recency bias. Anyone remember in early 2013 when Merril Hoge ranked Joe Flacco as the best quarterback in the NFL? Or when Ron Jaworski ranked Flacco ahead of Drew Brees in his annual quarterback countdown? We can sit and argue quarterback rankings for hours, but you and I both know that at no point in Flacco’s career was he ever even a top-5 quarterback nor better than Brees, yet some of the most respected minds in football went on record that he was. Why? Recency bias. I commend the participants in this mock for avoiding this for the most part. Out of the 19 rookies drafted, only 4 (Todd Gurley, Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon, and Nelson Agholor) are projected starters for the owner that drafted them. There is nothing wrong with drafting rookies and I am not a proponent of the “always take an established veteran over a rookie” line of thought. I just caution against drafting this year’s rookies with the expectation of last year’s production.

3. I noticed that two teams went WR-WR the first two rounds and it worked really well.

Running back is the position with the highest bust rate. In a strategy that seems counterintuitive, knowing this is why many fantasy owners spend high picks on the RBs they consider “safe.” However, history has shown that the safest running back is not as safe as the safest wide receiver. Wide receivers are more consistent from year to year. The counterargument to going wide receiver early is that wide receiver is incredibly deep and it’s easier to find a startable wideout in the mid-to-late rounds than it is to find a viable running back. Hawkeye21 went Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson with his first two picks, yet still was able to grab Lamar Miller and Andre Ellington, RB2s with RB1 potential as well as Tevin Coleman, who many think will usurp Devonta Freeman sooner rather than later. Robb went with Julio Jones and Megatron and secured Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, and T.J. Yeldon, all three of whom are unquestioned starters for their respective professional teams. And let’s not understate the quality of Tre Mason in the 10th round, who will at worst split carries if/when Todd Gurley returns from his ACL tear and could return strong RB2 value if Gurley were to suffer a setback. Robb’s draft was one of my favorites in this mock. If your draft position is towards the back end, don’t dismiss the wide receiver-wide receiver strategy.

4. I noticed that unlike in many years past, viable starting running backs can be had after Round 4.

Talking strictly pre-draft rankings and ignoring how things actually played out during the season, the general consensus in 2014 was that there were about fifteen running backs fantasy owners felt comfortable drafting and relying on. The last of those running backs to go typically occurred no later than Round 4. We know that there will be plenty of busts and running backs that fall out of favor very quickly, but heading into the 2015 draft season and specifically looking at this mock, I see a fair amount of running backs taken Round 4 or later that I’d feel comfortable starting for my fantasy team. Andre Ellington, Jonathan Stewart, Joseph Randle, T.J. Yeldon, LeGarrette Blount, and even Chris Ivory are all expected to receive the majority of carries for their teams. Doug Martin is still the starter in Tampa and he lasted until the latter portion of Round 7. Guys like Giovani Bernard, Shane Vereen, and Tevin Coleman will likely go earlier and have more value in PPR leagues, but they are going to see the field and likely touch the ball enough to make an impact in any format. There is value to be had at running back. Do not feel pressured into doing anything you don’t want to do, including forcing yourself to take two running backs in the first three rounds.

5. I noticed that there were eight Eagles drafted, the most of any NFL team.

The Eagles had an off-season to remember (or forget, depending on which side of the coin you’re on). They traded away their franchise running back and the man we thought was their franchise quarterback. They lost their top wide receiver to the Chiefs. They replaced McCoy with Ryan Mathews. Then they didn’t. Then they signed DeMarco Murray. Then they signed Mathews anyway. Then they drafted Nelson Agholor to fill the void left by Jeremy Maclin. When the smoke cleared, we were left with a bunch of talented players with somewhat uncertain value. Of the eight Eagles drafted, only Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Cody Parkey were with the team last season and Parkey is a kicker so he’s irrelevant. I think we can be reasonably confident Murray will return high-end RB1 value if he stays healthy. Beyond him, there are a lot of things we don’t know and I think this is why we saw so many Eagles taken. The potential is there for all of these players to return production well above their draft position. But with a new quarterback, two new running backs, and two wide receivers with a combined one year of NFL experience, there could be some growing pains and inconsistency with the Philly offense. The takeaway is not so much what to do with Eagles players specifically, but to consider what has changed about a player or that player’s professional team when deciding whether or not to draft him. The massive offensive shakeup in Philly could serve as a tiebreaker when deciding whether to take Matthews or a similarly drafted player like Keenan Allen or Golden Tate.

6. I noticed that tight ends were drafted exactly as expected.

Rob Gronkowski is in a class of his own. This is common knowledge. I’d argue that no player at any position in any sport is clearly the best as Gronk is at tight ends (except maybe J.J. Watt, but he is not human so he doesn’t count). Jimmy Graham is the clear No.2, taken 25 picks after Gronk. About 10 picks later went Kelce and Olsen. Martellus Bennett is the last of the reliable tight ends and he went late 6th round. What we have is a clear “big 5” at tight end (although in reality it’s Gronk and “4 guys we like more than the rest”) and then “the rest.” Zach Ertz was the sixth tight end off the board taken No.86 overall. Austin Seferian-Jenkins was drafted 36 picks later. The Ertz hype train is as real as it was last year, but Brent Celek is still there to siphon snaps and I just don’t see why this year will be any different. Big ASJ has similar hype surrounding him heading into this season and can be had much later. I’m not advocating you take ASJ in particular, but rather any tight end similarly ranked. If you miss out on one of the top-5, it is likely in your best interest to wait on a tight end. With little separating the 6th and 12th ranked tight ends, grab yourself some wide receiver or running back depth instead.

7. I noticed that three kickers were taken before the second to last round, including one in the 13th round.

This is unacceptable. I feel like every year I make the same arguments regarding kickers and why not a single one should ever be taken before the second to last round (and I’m being generous by not saying last round only) and every year a couple of fantasy owners reach for a kicker. Using this mock’s kicker scoring (3 points regardless of distance), the difference in weekly fantasy points between the No.1 kicker and No.12 kicker in 2014 was approximately 1.8 points per week. Every point matters. Yes. But my point isn’t that you shouldn’t reach a couple rounds for a better kicker, it’s that you have no idea who the better kicker is. Kickers are wildly inconsistent on a week-to-week to basis. Using one of the wonderful resources of FFToday, you can view the weekly game log of every player (yes, even kickers). Stephen Gostkowski has scored the most fantasy points at kicker each of the past two seasons, but last year even he had four weeks where he attempted two field goals or fewer, three of which he did not make a single one. Adam Vinatieri was one of the more consistent kickers last season, until he gave you a one-spot in your championship game. Justin Tucker was one of the best kickers in 2013. Last year he delivered five sub-5-point performances. Most importantly, there is no rhyme or reason to when a kicker has a big game and no way to predict it. You basically want a good kicker on a good offense with a good matchup, but the offense can’t be too good and the matchup can’t be too good because then he’ll just be kicking extra points. You see how ridiculous this sounds? I have spent way too much time on kickers. When you’re in the 13th or 14th round, instead of taking a kicker, take a shot on another running back or wide receiver. The potential for value is much greater and you’re not going to miss out on anything if someone takes “your” kicker.

8. I noticed that no one reached for a defense.

After their meteoric rise in 2013, the Seahawks were considered the best defense by a wide margin heading into the 2014 season. In many drafts, some brash owner would reach for them in the 8th or 9th round, way earlier than any defense should be drafted. Surprisingly (or perhaps not?) the first defense did not come off the board until the middle of the 13th round and it wasn’t Seattle. If you ask the average fantasy player who the No.1 defense is, the answer will probably be Seattle. And that would be false. It was in fact the Buffalo Bills that finished 2014 as the highest scoring fantasy defense (disclaimer: this can vary based on scoring systems). With defensive guru Rex Ryan at the helm combined with their offseason additions, the Bills are primed for another strong season defensively. In fact, my main concern regarding their defense is how many points they’re going to give up because whoever ends up playing quarterback throws the ball to the other team. Given how close Buffalo and Seattle were in terms of fantasy scoring, Buffalo’s disastrous quarterback situation would be the tiebreaker that tips the scales in favor of Seattle. However, after Buffalo and Seattle, no one really has any idea, which is likely why nine of the twelve defenses drafted were taken in the final two rounds. Defenses score well, but, similar to kickers, predicting which ones will do so can be a fool’s errand as every year you see multiple undrafted Defenses find their way into the top 12. Credit to everyone in this mock for approaching Defenses the correct way.

9. I noticed that eleven of the twelve teams in this mock did not fill their starting lineup (excluding Defense and Kicker) in the first seven rounds.

Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver was the only one to come out of the first seven rounds with 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, and 1 tight end. Feeling compelled to fill your starting lineup before drafting bench players is a common pitfall of an inexperienced fantasy owner. That is not to say you should actively avoid it. In Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver’s case, all of his picks made sense and I actually like his draft. The problem does not lie with having a completed starting lineup before drafting bench players. The problem lies with passing on value because you erroneously believe you cannot draft guys that aren’t going to play for you most of the time before drafting guys that are. Take TheFootballGuru’s draft for example. He headed into the 7th round in need of a WR3. However, despite having already drafted Russell Wilson, he saw that Peyton Manning was still on the board. He simply couldn’t pass him up. As it turns out, Anquan Boldin was the only wide receiver taken between Peyton and his next pick. I doubt he was lamenting over missing out on Boldin. Frozenbeernuts grabbed Joseph Randle as his RB3 in the 5th round and his draft didn’t miss a beat. His plan may not have been to take a backup running back before his WR3, quarterback, or tight end, but when the starting running back with the best offensive line in the NFL is available in Round 5, you take him and you don’t feel the least bit bad about it. Your team will likely look a lot different as early as Week 5 when compared to what it looks like post-draft. Make sure you’re making the best pick for your team each round.

10. I noticed the draft position of these four players...

Odell Beckham Jr. - What Beckham did last year was downright absurd. He’s incredible. He has talent. However, it is entirely possible that 2014 will end up being the best season he’s ever had. Now that doesn’t mean he can’t be an elite level talent. You’ve heard this one before: leagues cannot be won in the first few rounds, but they can certainly be lost. When it comes to second year players and early round selection, I like to live by the philosophy of “do it again.” We have a 12-game sample size for Beckham. I think he will be very good this year, but before I go spending a first round pick on him, I’d like to see him “do it again.” I don’t need or expect him to match last year’s production. I just want to see wide WR1 level production over a relatively healthy season. I caution anyone against drafting Beckham over established elite wide receivers such as Julio Jones, Megatron, Jordy Nelson, and A.J. Green. Think about the risk versus the reward. If you pass on Beckham in favor of one of the established guys, what are you risking? Let’s assume healthy seasons for everyone. Say Beckham has another monster year. Are you really going to be that upset you took Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson? But what if Beckham’s production drops considerably. You went with the unproven potential superstar over guys who have been doing it for years. The odds of you regretting taking one of those guys over Beckham are considerably lower than the reverse.

Rob Gronkowski - I’ll keep this one short and sweet. I would go so far as to say I would not blink if I saw him go No.1 overall. He is an elite WR1. He plays tight end. No player gives you more of a weekly edge at a position than Gronk. When most of us draft for real, I don’t know if he will make it out of the first round very often. I don’t hate the players selected over him, but I was surprised to see 15 players drafted ahead of Gronk.

Brandin Cooks - He was taken 29th overall. 29th!!! Can someone tell me what this guy did to warrant this kind of treatment? In 2014, Cooks came to play every other week. For the eleven weeks he was healthy, you were happy to have him in your lineup for five of them and sorely disappointed the other six. I understand he’s the WR1 in a Drew Brees offense, but when has that ever really meant anything? Brees is known for spreading the ball around and that was when the offense was pass-first, pass-second. The Saints lost Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and added C.J. Spiller. They intend to run the ball more this year. Cooks has exactly 11 professional games of experience, yet he was selected before the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, and Keenan Allen. There were wide receivers taken even later that I like more than Cooks. And I would be remiss to leave out the fact that Cooks was taken before Aaron Rodgers. I’m one of the biggest proponents of the wait on a quarterback strategy, but you cannot honestly say you’d prefer Brandin Cooks to Aaron Rodgers. Think about it this way, if you owned Aaron Rodgers and someone came at you with a trade offer of Cooks for Rodgers, how quickly would you say no?

Carlos Hyde - I am not a fan of Carlos Hyde. I think he’s a very talented back in a terrible situation. The 49ers are going to be bad this year. I’m talking really bad. They have virtually no threats at wide receiver, which means a lot of stacking the box against Hyde. Add in the fact that they’ll be behind often and I think we’re going to see a lot more of Reggie Bush than even Reggie Bush expects. Oh and let’s not forget that the NFC West is arguably the toughest division defensively. I would pass on Hyde in favor of a myriad of running backs that were taken after him, including Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Andre Ellington, Jonathan Stewart, Joseph Randle, and LeGarrette Blount, to name a few.

Every mock is different. Take a look at the June mock compared to this one and you’ll see how very different they are. You can and should try different strategies and approaches. See what works and what does not. See what you like and what you do not like. Even if you disagree with everything I’ve written, you can still learn from it. I hope reading this article helps you as much as writing it helped me.