Every year, rest assured someone at some point during each of
your drafts will utter some variation of the words “value
pick.” But what exactly is a value pick? What is value?
Value is a relative term that changes based on public perception.
When I consider value, I’m looking for a positive return
on my investment. Just because a player has an a 4th round ADP
and is still available in the 6th round does not make him good
value. At the same time, taking a player a round or two above
his ADP is not necessarily bad value.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
have a higher ADP the following season. Last season, Devonta Freeman
had an 8th round ADP. This year, he has a 2nd round ADP. Freeman
gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment. On the
flip side, Jeremy Hill had a 2nd round ADP. This year, he has
a 6th round ADP. That’s the type of pick we all hope to
avoid.
This year’s value series begins with Tight Ends. I’ll
look at the QB, WR and RB positions in upcoming articles.
The case for Walker being undervalued:
He’s the top receiving option on a team with a young QB that likes
to get rid of the ball quickly.
The case against Walker being undervalued:
The Titans are a low volume passing attack and bolstered their
offense with the additions of DeMarco
Murray and Rishard
Matthews, leaving more mouths to feed.
Verdict: Walker has steadily improved
in each of his three years in Tennessee with 2015 being his best
season by a large margin. After Rob
Gronkowski and Jordan
Reed, I see two tight ends in the next tier: Greg
Olsen and Delanie Walker. On average, Olsen is being drafted
about two rounds higher than Walker even though Walker caught
17 more passes with their yardage and touchdown totals almost
identical. Despite the offensive improvements, Walker should continue
to be the focal point of the Titans’ passing attack and I see
no reason he can’t match last year’s numbers, which places him
towards the top of a very weak TE field.
The case for Green being undervalued:
At time the Steelers have made the tight end position a focal
point of the offense and Green has the job entirely to himself.
The case against Green being undervalued:
He’s never been a featured tight end and whenever he’s had the
chance, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field.
Verdict: Just because it’s obvious
doesn’t mean it isn’t true. In San Diego, Green excelled during
games when he was on the field and Antonio
Gates was not. However, those weren’t many as old man Gates
has the same answer for father time each week: “not today.” The
pundits would sing Green’s praises and say, “if only he got a
chance.” Well now he has his chance taking over for the retiring
Heath
Miller. Miller managed 60 catches last year and 535 yards.
Green is younger, more talented, and more athletic. With Martavis
Bryant suspended for the season and Le’Veon
Bell out the first four weeks, the Steelers need a second
option behind Antonio
Brown in the passing game. It would not shock me if Green
topped 80 receptions and pushed 1000 yards. He is a solid bet
to be a 6th round pick or higher in 2017 drafts.
Miller has low-end TE1 upside and is a
solid option for those owners who like to wait on the position.
The case for Miller being undervalued:
He demonstrated big play ability in limited opportunities last
year and now takes over as the starting TE.
The case against Miller being undervalued:
Miller had never been relevant in his career, which appeared to
have ended four weeks into the 2011 season.
Verdict: After the Bears finally had enough of Martellus Bennett,
Miller became the starter and finished the season with three strong
performances (18-211-1). He has a good rapport with Jay Cutler
and now has a full off-season of preparation as the team’s
No.1 TE. The Bears value the position as well. Bennett was a top-ten
fantasy tight end in both 2013 and 2014. I don’t expect
Miller to suddenly become an elite force, but at roughly the 17th
TE off the board, he’s a solid option for those who wait
on the position.
The case for Fleener being overvalued:
Fantasy owners are still expecting the Saints TE to become Jimmy
Graham 2.0 and that’s just not happening.
The case against Fleener being overvalued:
If journeyman Ben Watson can have a successful season receiving
passes from Drew Brees, why not the younger, more talented Fleener?
Verdict: The Colts never had an objectively superior option to
Fleener, yet they still refused to feature him. He finished third
in targets among the Colts receiving weapons in each of the last
two years. How come? Is it possible that Fleener just isn’t
all that good? Public perception took over as everyone was convinced
Fleener was going to find an instant connection with college teammate
Andrew Luck. And while is anomaly of a season in 2014 (15.2 ypc!)
allowed him to finish as the TE6, his rank in 2013 (TE15) and
2015 (TE21) leave something to be desired. There’s no doubt
Fleener is moving to a pass-friendy offense that allowed Ben Watson
to have a career year and Brees is capable of making Fleener a
mid-range TE1, but that ceiling is already built into his draft
price.
The case for Bennett being overvalued:
There’s this thing called a “Gronk” and he’s the starting tight
end for the Patriots.
The case against Bennett being overvalued:
The Patriots can support three fantasy relevant pass catchers
and none of them are a sure thing beyond Rob Gronkowski and Julian
Edelman.
Verdict: There have been three full NFL seasons since the Patriots
had dual fantasy relevant tight ends and the reason Aaron Hernandez
was fantasy relevant was because of his ability, not because he
was the Patriots’ No.2 TE. Contrary to popular belief, the
Patriots have not been looking to recreate the Hernandez magic.
In fact, the Patriots backup tight end hasn’t cleared 45
targets in each of the last two seasons. Bennett is a reliable
veteran and a quality backup to Gronk and will likely see the
field a fair amount in the red zone but his stand alone value
with a healthy Gronk is minimal.
The case for Cook being overvalued:
Cook is battling a foot injury and will be in a TE timeshare at
best capping his ceiling.
The case against Cook being overvalued:
The really, really small chance he develops chemistry with his
QB, becomes the prominent TE on the team and the third option
for Rodgers in the passing game.
Verdict: Cook is entering his eighth
NFL season and each time the fantasy community is ready to write
him off, something happens to rekindle that ever shrinking glimmer
of hope. When everyone had given up on him in Tennessee, he went
to St. Louis. When he was written off in St. Louis, he went to
the Packers. As great as Rodgers is, he hasn’t turned Richard
Rodgers or Andrew
Quarless into viable fantasy tight ends. It’s difficult to
predict Cook jumpstarting his career when battling with an early
season foot injury and with Richard Rodgers expected to hold onto
his spot with the first team. It’s quite difficult for a player
to be overvalued in the 13th round, but at a position where you
typically draft one or two players there are higher upside options
available.
