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2010 Coaching Changes
Fantasy Impact: Buffalo Bills
6/3/10

New Head Coach: Chan Gailey
Previous Head Coach: Dick Jauron (2006-2009: fired after Week 10); Perry Fewell (2009: Weeks 11-17)

Gailey's Resume - KC OC: 2008; Georgia Tech HC: 2002-2007; MIA OC: 2000-2001; DAL HC: 1998-1999; PIT OC: 1996-1997; PIT WR Coach: 1994-1995; Samford University HC: 1993; Birmingham Fire HC: 1991-1992; DEN OC / WR Coach: 1989-1990; DEN QB / WR Coach: 1988; DEN ST / TE Coach: 1986-1987; DEN ST / Def. Assist: 1985

New Offensive Coordinator / RB Coach: Curtis Modkins (ARI RB Coach: 2009; KC RB Coach: 2008; Georgia Tech RB Coach: 2003-2007; Georgia Tech DB Coach: 2002)

Chan Gailey

One of the Bills' RBs, Jackson, Spiller or Lynch should have a big fantasy impact in Gailey's offense.

Overview
After attempts to acquire the likes of Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, and a number of top assistants within the NFL (Russ Grimm, Brian Schottenheimer, Ron Rivera, and Leslie Frazier) to run their football operations proved unsuccessful, the Buffalo Bills eventually settled on Chan Gailey as their 15th head coach in franchise history. Gailey found himself out of football in 2009 after he was fired just three games into the preseason by the Kansas City Chiefs. He originally joined the Chiefs organization in 2008 as Herm Edwards offensive coordinator. After Edwards was fired following the 2008 campaign however, Gailey eventually had his play calling duties stripped from him by new head coach Todd Haley and was later dismissed altogether by the team.

Prior to his tenure with the Chiefs Gailey spent six years as a head coach at the collegiate level with Georgia Tech. During that span he became the first coach in school history to lead the Yellow Jackets to six straight bowl appearances. That accomplishment was marred however by the team’s lackluster performance in such outings as they compiled a mark of 2-4 during those six contests. Gailey’s overall record at Georgia Tech was 44-32, finishing each season with a winning record. His failure to beat Tech’s archrival, the Georgia Bulldogs, in any of his six seasons at the helm, along with his inability to win the ACC Championship, or qualify for an appearance in a BCS bowl game ultimately led to his firing following the 2007 campaign.

His best season with the Yellow Jackets came in 2006 when he compiled a 9-5 record, including a mark of 7-1 within the ACC, and advanced to the ACC Championship game only to lose to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons by a score of 9-6. In 2007 the Yellow Jackets average of 199.3 rushing yards per game was tops amongst their conference and their 384.9 yards of total offence ranked third within the ACC. Overall a total of 46 players coached by Gailey at Georgia Tech would go on to play in the NFL either by being chosen in the draft or signing as rookie free agents. Most notable among these players is Calvin Johnson, who was chosen with the second overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft by the Detroit Lions.

Before coaching at Georgia Tech, Gailey spent two years as the offensive coordinator with the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins posted 11-5 records and advanced to the playoffs during both seasons with Gailey calling the plays. Running back Lamar Smith had a career year for himself in 2000 under Gailey’s guidance, rushing for 1139 yards and 14 touchdowns in 15 games. The following season Smith compiled 968 yards on the ground while reaching the end zone 6 times. Chris Chambers, then a rookie in 2001, also made a meaningful contribution as he caught 48 passes for 883 yards and 7 touchdowns while leading the league with an average of 18.4 yards per catch. Overall, the Dolphins offense ranked 8th in points scored during the 2001 season.

Prior to his time with the Dolphins Gailey had a two-year stint as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Although he led the club to the postseason in both of those years his stay was short lived as the Cowboys failed to win either of their playoff games under Gailey. Jerry Jones would later go on to say firing Gailey after just two seasons was one of the biggest mistakes he has made as owner of the Dallas Cowboys.

Gailey’s previous NFL coaching experience had come with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos. He worked as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator from 1996-1997 and was their wide receivers coach from 1994-1995. Running back Jerome Bettis posted the best yardage totals of his career during Gailey’s stay as offensive coordinator with the Steelers. He rushed for 1431 yards in 1996 and then topped that mark with a career best 1665 yards rushing in 1997. He also scored a total of 18 touchdowns during that two-year span.

During his time with the Broncos Gailey first began working as their special teams coach and as a defensive assistant in 1985. Over the next two seasons he would continue coaching the special teams unit while also working with the tight ends. He was promoted to the position of quarterbacks and wide receivers coach in 1988 before eventually earning the title of offensive coordinator (while continuing his work with the wide receivers) throughout the 1989-1990 campaigns. During those two seasons a young Bobby Humphrey would go on to rush for 2353 yards and 14 touchdowns before injuries brought a premature end to his career.

As a member of the coaching staffs in both Denver and Pittsburgh its worth noting Gailey has coached in four Super Bowls (in 1986, ’87, and ’89 with the Broncos, and in 1995 with the Steelers). Inbetween his positions with Denver and Pittsburgh he spent two years as head coach of the Birmingham Fire of the World League of American Football and one season as head coach at Samford University.

Joining Gailey’s staff in Buffalo as both the offensive coordinator and running backs coach is Curtis Modkins. Modkins has previously worked with Gailey throughout his entire tenure at Georgia Tech from 2002-2007 and as a running backs coach with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008. He spent the 2009 season as the running backs coach in Arizona.

Quarterbacks: Trent Edwards; Ryan Fitzpatrick; Brian Brohm; Levi Brown (R)

Despite what most analysts considered to be a glaring need for Buffalo at the quarterback position heading into the 2010 NFL Draft, the Bills didn’t select a signal caller until the seventh round when they chose Levi Brown out of Troy State. Chan Gailey has stated that Brown will have an opportunity to take over the starting position by the time the regular season kicks-off, which essentially means the Bills depth chart at quarterback is yet to be determined and a wide open competition.

Trent Edwards, who was the Bills opening day starter in 2008 and 2009, is still considered the front runner in this race, but he’ll face stiff competition from Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout training camp and the preseason. 2008 second round draft pick Brian Brohm will also figure into the equation, although he’ll have to outperform both Edwards and Fitzpatrick if he wants to be the opening day starter. Despite Gailey’s comments about rookie Levi Brown he has to be considered a long shot at this point to earn any meaningful playing time during the upcoming season.

For the most part the Bills quarterback situation is one for fantasy owners to shy away from. Trent Edwards is yet to show any meaningful promise during his three seasons in the league and Fitzpatrick is more of a journeyman quarterback within the NFL. Brohm may hold the most promise if he is able to crack the starting line-up while Edwards is facing a do or die situation in his fourth season to establish himself as the Bills franchise quarterback.

Running Backs: Fred Jackson; C.J. Spiller (R); Marshawn Lynch; Corey McIntyre (FB)

Fred Jackson made himself a valuable commodity amongst the Bills backfield last season as he rushed for over 1000 yards and caught 46 passes, but at the age of 29 he isn’t the long term solution at running back for Buffalo. Marshawn Lynch meanwhile had a promising start to his NFL career during his first two years in the league, but took a giant step backwards as he began last season with a four game suspension and wasn’t all that impressive upon his return. Now added to the mix is rookie C.J. Spiller, whom the Bills selected with the ninth overall pick in this year’s draft. Needless to say, it makes for a bit of a crowded backfield in Buffalo, but these things tend to have a way of working themselves out.

Given the success running backs have had in the past while playing under Gailey (Lamar Smith in Miami, Emmitt Smith in Dallas, Jerome Bettis in Pittsburgh, Bobby Humphrey in Denver, and the strong rushing attack he led while at Georgia Tech) there’s good reason to believe one of these three backs in Buffalo will make a meaningful contribution in fantasy leagues throughout the year. At this point in time it’s hard to decipher which of the three will prove to be the most valuable, but C.J. Spiller is currently the safest selection as it’s known he will definitely be featured within the offense and have ample opportunity to prove he’s a true playmaker that should be on the field at all times.

Between Jackson and Lynch it appears Jackson currently has the upper hand as Lynch’s off-field issues haven’t shown him in the best of light to the organization. His decision to skip the team’s voluntary conditioning program in early April, along with more recent organized team activities (OTAs) isn’t doing him any favors either.

Taking everything into consideration the Bills backfield situation will be one worth monitoring throughout minicamp and the preseason. Whichever runner is declared the opening day starter will have a very realistic chance to rush for 1000-1200 yards while scoring 6-7 touchdowns. They could also prove worthy of 40-50 receptions out of the backfield. By season’s end I tend to think Spiller will be the most valuable of the three, but Jackson could get first crack at things in the early goings.

Wide Receivers: Lee Evans; Steve Johnson; Roscoe Parrish; James Hardy; Marcus Easley (R); Chad Jackson; Felton Huggins

There isn’t much to discuss when it comes to the Bills cast of wide receivers. Lee Evans is clearly their number one target in the passing game, but with no legitimate threat opposite him opposing defenses can usually do a good job of double covering him if necessary and take him out of the game plan. With Terrell Owens set to depart via free agency Buffalo is left with the unproven likes of Steve Johnson, James Hardy, Chad Jackson, Felton Huggins and rookie Marcus Easley to battle for the playing spot opposite him. Roscoe Parrish is expected to handle the slot position.

Further complicating matters is Buffalo’s current lack of stability at the quarterback position. For these reasons Evans should be viewed as a number three wide-out with upside. The others are likely to be waiver wire pick-ups on and off throughout the year.

Tight Ends: Shawn Nelson; Derek Schouman; Joe Klopfenstein; Michael Matthews; Jonathan Stupar

The only tight end on the Bills roster worth keeping an eye on from a fantasy perspective is Shawn Nelson as he’s the only one likely to make an impact as a receiver at the position. Derek Schouman stands an outside chance of being a pass catching tight end, but with Nelson ahead of him on the depth chart it may be difficult for Schouman to make the team.

Both Michael Matthews and Jonathan Stupar are better blockers at the position, which is something Chan Gailey will prefer to have from his reserve tight ends. Matthews has been working opposite Nelson in the team’s two tight end sets and is familiar with Gailey’s system from the time he spent with him at Georgia Tech from 2004-2006. Nelson should be viewed as a late round flier in fantasy drafts.

Questions or comments are always welcome.