Fantasy Impact: Buffalo Bills
6/3/10
New Head Coach: Chan Gailey
Previous Head Coach: Dick Jauron
(2006-2009: fired after Week 10); Perry Fewell (2009: Weeks 11-17)
Gailey's Resume - KC OC: 2008; Georgia
Tech HC: 2002-2007; MIA OC: 2000-2001; DAL HC: 1998-1999; PIT OC:
1996-1997; PIT WR Coach: 1994-1995; Samford University HC: 1993;
Birmingham Fire HC: 1991-1992; DEN OC / WR Coach: 1989-1990; DEN
QB / WR Coach: 1988; DEN ST / TE Coach: 1986-1987; DEN ST / Def.
Assist: 1985
New Offensive Coordinator / RB Coach:
Curtis Modkins (ARI RB Coach: 2009; KC RB Coach: 2008; Georgia
Tech RB Coach: 2003-2007; Georgia Tech DB Coach: 2002)
One of the Bills' RBs, Jackson, Spiller
or Lynch should have a big fantasy impact in Gailey's offense.
Overview
After attempts to acquire the likes of Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher,
and a number of top assistants within the NFL (Russ Grimm, Brian
Schottenheimer, Ron Rivera, and Leslie Frazier) to run their football
operations proved unsuccessful, the Buffalo Bills eventually settled
on Chan Gailey as their 15th head coach in franchise history.
Gailey found himself out of football in 2009 after he was fired
just three games into the preseason by the Kansas City Chiefs.
He originally joined the Chiefs organization in 2008 as Herm Edwards
offensive coordinator. After Edwards was fired following the 2008
campaign however, Gailey eventually had his play calling duties
stripped from him by new head coach Todd Haley and was later dismissed
altogether by the team.
Prior to his tenure with the Chiefs Gailey spent six years as
a head coach at the collegiate level with Georgia Tech. During
that span he became the first coach in school history to lead
the Yellow Jackets to six straight bowl appearances. That accomplishment
was marred however by the team’s lackluster performance
in such outings as they compiled a mark of 2-4 during those six
contests. Gailey’s overall record at Georgia Tech was 44-32,
finishing each season with a winning record. His failure to beat
Tech’s archrival, the Georgia Bulldogs, in any of his six
seasons at the helm, along with his inability to win the ACC Championship,
or qualify for an appearance in a BCS bowl game ultimately led
to his firing following the 2007 campaign.
His best season with the Yellow Jackets came in 2006 when he
compiled a 9-5 record, including a mark of 7-1 within the ACC,
and advanced to the ACC Championship game only to lose to the
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by a score of 9-6. In 2007 the Yellow
Jackets average of 199.3 rushing yards per game was tops amongst
their conference and their 384.9 yards of total offence ranked
third within the ACC. Overall a total of 46 players coached by
Gailey at Georgia Tech would go on to play in the NFL either by
being chosen in the draft or signing as rookie free agents. Most
notable among these players is Calvin Johnson, who was chosen
with the second overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft by the Detroit
Lions.
Before coaching at Georgia Tech, Gailey spent two years as the
offensive coordinator with the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins posted
11-5 records and advanced to the playoffs during both seasons
with Gailey calling the plays. Running back Lamar Smith had a
career year for himself in 2000 under Gailey’s guidance,
rushing for 1139 yards and 14 touchdowns in 15 games. The following
season Smith compiled 968 yards on the ground while reaching the
end zone 6 times. Chris Chambers, then a rookie in 2001, also
made a meaningful contribution as he caught 48 passes for 883
yards and 7 touchdowns while leading the league with an average
of 18.4 yards per catch. Overall, the Dolphins offense ranked
8th in points scored during the 2001 season.
Prior to his time with the Dolphins Gailey had a two-year stint
as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Although he led the club
to the postseason in both of those years his stay was short lived
as the Cowboys failed to win either of their playoff games under
Gailey. Jerry Jones would later go on to say firing Gailey after
just two seasons was one of the biggest mistakes he has made as
owner of the Dallas Cowboys.
Gailey’s previous NFL coaching experience had come with
the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos. He worked as Pittsburgh’s
offensive coordinator from 1996-1997 and was their wide receivers
coach from 1994-1995. Running back Jerome Bettis posted the best
yardage totals of his career during Gailey’s stay as offensive
coordinator with the Steelers. He rushed for 1431 yards in 1996
and then topped that mark with a career best 1665 yards rushing
in 1997. He also scored a total of 18 touchdowns during that two-year
span.
During his time with the Broncos Gailey first began working as
their special teams coach and as a defensive assistant in 1985.
Over the next two seasons he would continue coaching the special
teams unit while also working with the tight ends. He was promoted
to the position of quarterbacks and wide receivers coach in 1988
before eventually earning the title of offensive coordinator (while
continuing his work with the wide receivers) throughout the 1989-1990
campaigns. During those two seasons a young Bobby Humphrey would
go on to rush for 2353 yards and 14 touchdowns before injuries
brought a premature end to his career.
As a member of the coaching staffs in both Denver and Pittsburgh
its worth noting Gailey has coached in four Super Bowls (in 1986,
’87, and ’89 with the Broncos, and in 1995 with the
Steelers). Inbetween his positions with Denver and Pittsburgh
he spent two years as head coach of the Birmingham Fire of the
World League of American Football and one season as head coach
at Samford University.
Joining Gailey’s staff in Buffalo as both the offensive
coordinator and running backs coach is Curtis Modkins. Modkins
has previously worked with Gailey throughout his entire tenure
at Georgia Tech from 2002-2007 and as a running backs coach with
the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008. He spent the 2009 season as the
running backs coach in Arizona.
Quarterbacks: Trent
Edwards; Ryan
Fitzpatrick; Brian
Brohm; Levi
Brown (R)
Despite what most analysts considered to be a glaring need for
Buffalo at the quarterback position heading into the 2010 NFL
Draft, the Bills didn’t select a signal caller until the
seventh round when they chose Levi Brown out of Troy State. Chan
Gailey has stated that Brown will have an opportunity to take
over the starting position by the time the regular season kicks-off,
which essentially means the Bills depth chart at quarterback is
yet to be determined and a wide open competition.
Trent Edwards, who was the Bills opening day starter in 2008
and 2009, is still considered the front runner in this race, but
he’ll face stiff competition from Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout
training camp and the preseason. 2008 second round draft pick
Brian Brohm will also figure into the equation, although he’ll
have to outperform both Edwards and Fitzpatrick if he wants to
be the opening day starter. Despite Gailey’s comments about rookie
Levi Brown he has to be considered a long shot at this point to
earn any meaningful playing time during the upcoming season.
For the most part the Bills quarterback situation is one for
fantasy owners to shy away from. Trent Edwards is yet to show
any meaningful promise during his three seasons in the league
and Fitzpatrick is more of a journeyman quarterback within the
NFL. Brohm may hold the most promise if he is able to crack the
starting line-up while Edwards is facing a do or die situation
in his fourth season to establish himself as the Bills franchise
quarterback.
Running Backs: Fred
Jackson;
C.J. Spiller (R); Marshawn
Lynch; Corey McIntyre (FB)
Fred Jackson made himself a valuable commodity amongst the Bills
backfield last season as he rushed for over 1000 yards and caught
46 passes, but at the age of 29 he isn’t the long term solution
at running back for Buffalo. Marshawn Lynch meanwhile had a promising
start to his NFL career during his first two years in the league,
but took a giant step backwards as he began last season with a
four game suspension and wasn’t all that impressive upon his return.
Now added to the mix is rookie C.J. Spiller, whom the Bills selected
with the ninth overall pick in this year’s draft. Needless to
say, it makes for a bit of a crowded backfield in Buffalo, but
these things tend to have a way of working themselves out.
Given the success running backs have had in the past while playing
under Gailey (Lamar Smith in Miami, Emmitt Smith in Dallas, Jerome
Bettis in Pittsburgh, Bobby Humphrey in Denver, and the strong
rushing attack he led while at Georgia Tech) there’s good
reason to believe one of these three backs in Buffalo will make
a meaningful contribution in fantasy leagues throughout the year.
At this point in time it’s hard to decipher which of the
three will prove to be the most valuable, but C.J. Spiller is
currently the safest selection as it’s known he will definitely
be featured within the offense and have ample opportunity to prove
he’s a true playmaker that should be on the field at all
times.
Between Jackson and Lynch it appears Jackson currently has the
upper hand as Lynch’s off-field issues haven’t shown
him in the best of light to the organization. His decision to
skip the team’s voluntary conditioning program in early
April, along with more recent organized team activities (OTAs)
isn’t doing him any favors either.
Taking everything into consideration the Bills backfield situation
will be one worth monitoring throughout minicamp and the preseason.
Whichever runner is declared the opening day starter will have
a very realistic chance to rush for 1000-1200 yards while scoring
6-7 touchdowns. They could also prove worthy of 40-50 receptions
out of the backfield. By season’s end I tend to think Spiller
will be the most valuable of the three, but Jackson could get
first crack at things in the early goings.
Wide Receivers: Lee
Evans; Steve
Johnson; Roscoe
Parrish; James
Hardy; Marcus
Easley (R); Chad
Jackson; Felton Huggins
There isn’t much to discuss when it comes to the Bills cast of
wide receivers. Lee Evans is clearly their number one target in
the passing game, but with no legitimate threat opposite him opposing
defenses can usually do a good job of double covering him if necessary
and take him out of the game plan. With Terrell Owens set to depart
via free agency Buffalo is left with the unproven likes of Steve
Johnson, James Hardy, Chad Jackson, Felton Huggins and rookie
Marcus Easley to battle for the playing spot opposite him. Roscoe
Parrish is expected to handle the slot position.
Further complicating matters is Buffalo’s current lack
of stability at the quarterback position. For these reasons Evans
should be viewed as a number three wide-out with upside. The others
are likely to be waiver wire pick-ups on and off throughout the
year.
Tight Ends: Shawn
Nelson; Derek
Schouman; Joe
Klopfenstein; Michael Matthews; Jonathan Stupar
The only tight end on the Bills roster worth keeping an eye on
from a fantasy perspective is Shawn Nelson as he’s the only
one likely to make an impact as a receiver at the position. Derek
Schouman stands an outside chance of being a pass catching tight
end, but with Nelson ahead of him on the depth chart it may be
difficult for Schouman to make the team.
Both Michael Matthews and Jonathan Stupar are better blockers
at the position, which is something Chan Gailey will prefer to
have from his reserve tight ends. Matthews has been working opposite
Nelson in the team’s two tight end sets and is familiar
with Gailey’s system from the time he spent with him at
Georgia Tech from 2004-2006. Nelson should be viewed as a late
round flier in fantasy drafts.
Questions or comments
are always welcome.
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