Peyton Manning will carry more risk in
redraft leagues after stumbling down the stretch in 2014.
The position projects to be deep in 2015 just like it was last season
when 14 quarterbacks averaged 20-plus fantasy points (standard scoring
leagues, at least eight games played). Andrew Luck has vaulted into
the elite category while Peyton Manning’s status in that group
remains a question mark. He will be grossly overvalued in re-draft
leagues if his second-half downward trend continues into next season.
These rankings will change as we push forward through free agency
and the NFL Draft, but here are my top 12 quarterbacks for 2015
re-draft leagues as we get ready for Super Bowl Sunday:
Luck – Luck was the most consistent
fantasy quarterback last season. The Colts led the league
in pass attempts and their pass-first philosophy isn’t changing
anytime soon. Luck’s 40 passing TDs were best in the league, and
he’s scored 12 rushing TDs over the last three seasons.
Rodgers – You can make a case for Rodgers being first
on the list. However, all things being equal, I’ll defer to the
younger and therefore expected healthier option in Luck. Even
Lacy giving the Packers a legitimate rushing threat, this
offense runs through the quarterback in between the 20s and in
the redzone. His ridiculous TD-INT ratio over the last four years
(139-25) should be noted for those of you who get dinged for interceptions.
Brees – Brees remains a highly consistent fantasy quarterback,
and even though his TD totals have dropped in each of the last
three seasons, he’s still a good bet to hit 30-plus touchdowns
and 5,000 passing yards in the Saints offense.
Manning – Manning’s late-season decline, either from
injury or an eroding skill set, is cause for concern. The coaching
upheaval also makes me wary, but head coach Gary Kubiak is giving
every indication that he’s willing to let Manning run the offensive
show. I’m assuming Demaryius
Thomas will be back, but Denver’s decision to keep TD-machine
Julius Thomas is a key factor to watch in the upcoming months.
Ryan – We know OC Kyle Shanahan is headed to Atlanta,
and I’m assuming current Seattle DC Dan Quinn will be the new
head coach of the Falcons. With three straight seasons over 4,500
yards passing, Ryan needs to add just 4-5 more touchdowns (28
last year) to live up to this ranking.
Wilson – Wilson was extremely undervalued during the
2014 preseason and the key to my playoff run in multiple leagues.
His 849 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns on the ground this season
guarantee he won’t have a 9th-round ADP again.
Newton – I don’t like Newton’s body language on the
field. He appears disinterested at times and doesn’t possess the
best decision-making skills. Still, you can’t argue with his production,
especially when he’s at full health.
Brady – Brady has started every game since 2009 and
just finished off his fifth-straight 4,000-yard passing season.
His consistency numbers the last two seasons aren’t as good as
you might think due to a sub-30 touchdown season (25) in 2013.
Brandon LaFell is OK, but an upgrade on the outside would do wonders
for Brady's fantasy value.
Roethlisberger – Big Ben is likely due for a regression
coming of his best fantasy season as a pro, but the weapons and
offensive philosophy are still in place for a top-10 finish.
Romo – With DeMarco
Murray likely on his way out of Dallas, I expect we’ll see
a little more throwing out of Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense
in 2015. That could all change if Jerry Jones somehow lands Adrian
Peterson this offseason, but minus that monumental move, Romo
is a good bet to push past the 4,000-yard mark and 30 TDs.
Tannehill – Tannehill’s value is boosted by his running
ability, but the lack of downfield plays limits his upside. The
Miami QB ranked 28th in yards per attempt this season behind the
likes of Alex
Smith and Geno
Foles? – This is more a vote for the position than
the player. Chip Kelly is fantasy friendly to the quarterback,
but someone needs to grab hold of the job and keep it for 16 games.
Foles is the current in-house candidate, but his TD-INT ratio
last season (13-10) may force Kelly to ponder his quarterback
options in the upcoming draft or in free agency.