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Mike Krueger | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


DFS Lineup Review - Week 4
10/1/18


With no Rams, Steelers and Chiefs on the main slate, this was a week to really dig into the matchups and find the right plays. Luckily, we had some obvious options making building cash game lineups fairly straight forward. We still had Giovani Bernard underpriced given his high-usage role and Sterling Shepard became an bargain once Giantsí tight end Evan Engram was ruled out. Alvin Kamara also qualified as a lock becauseÖ he scores a lot of points.

Hereís a look at my cash game Lineup for Fanduel in Week 4.

Quarterback

There were three QBs priced in the $7000s that were my main considerations. Using one of the three instead of paying up for Drew Brees ($8700) or paying down for Baker Mayfield ($6900) felt like the safest bet for cash games. Philip Rivers ($7800) at home facing a below average secondary, missing Richard Sherman and just getting roasted by Mahomes and Stafford in consecutive weeks was an obvious target. As was Deshaun Watson ($7600) with his safe rushing floor, playing on the road against the Colts. Cheapest of the bunch was my pick, Andy Dalton ($7400), whoís thrown at least 2 TDs in each game this season and was getting the privilege of facing a Falcons defense thatís given up 300-yard games to Cam Newton and Drew Brees. I considered Mayfield, but the risk/reward didnít make sense and the extra savings ($500) wasnít needed given Fanduelís loose pricing.

Running Back

The Bengals-Falcons game had the highest over/under (52.5) on the slate, making it ripe to target in DFS. Giovani Bernard was an early-week lock and was 70-80% owned in 50/50s and double-ups. His high usage in the Bengals offense when Joe Mixon sits and cheap price ($6400) made him a no-brainer. Bernard did get dinged up a couple times in this game which allowed rookie Mark Walton to see 7 touches but Gioís results (23.6 FPts) were more than enough given his price.

Alvin Kamaraís 70% ownership was justified even at his $9100 price tag. Iím actually a little surprised he wasnít 80-90% owned given the lofty stats heís posted over the first three weeks including 38 targets, 30 receptions and 289 receiving yards. His redzone usage with Mark Ingram out, usage in the passing game, and high efficiency is truly special. If you havenít been playing Kamara in cash games, you need to re-evaluate your approach.

I didnít really consider moving away from these two locks and I did want to play a running back in the Flex position where a potential mistake was made. More on that in a minuteÖ

Wide Receiver

Roster construction with three high-priced running backs was keeping my away from the high-priced receivers this week making Michael Thomas ($9000), DeAndre Hopkins ($8600), Julio Jones ($8600) and Odell Beckham Jr. ($8600) afterthoughts. I was more focused on the value options like Will Fuller ($7600), Jarvis Landry ($7000), Mike Williams ($6300), Sterling Shepard ($6200) and Tyler Boyd ($5800).

With late-word over the weekend that Randall Cobb would be inactive, Geronimo Allison ($5900) also became enticing option given a likelihood of increased usage in the slot. However, while I had the money, I didnít project him any higher than Boyd and preferred the likely game environment for the Bengals/Falcons over the Packers/Bills. Boyd was too cheap given his increased role in the offense and allowed me to pay up for the three high-priced running backs I wanted.

I wasnít budging off Shepard and I really like Landryís usage over the first three weeks (targets: 15-7-15) coupled with the change in quarterback that expected to give the offense a boost in efficiency and production. Facing the suspect Raiders defense was also a plus and ultimately swayed my decision to use the Browns lead receiver over Fuller. Iíll mention Antonio Calloway here, who was min-priced ($4500) and reasonably popular on Fanduel this week. He was an unnecessary risk in my eyes, given there was enough value to be had at the wide receiver position.

Tight End

Eric Ebron was locked into a starting role in an offense that spends the majority of the time hitting short-to-intermediate targets. While he drops too many passes and can be a headache for fantasy owners to watch, heís a safe play given his usage. I also considered Tyler Eifert ($4600) who was starting to see his role increase, Jared Cook ($5400) facing a Browns team that has leaked fantasy points to tight ends in the past and O.J. Howard ($5600) who I thought could be more involved in the gameplan attacking the Bears defense in the middle of the field. I plugged in Ebron, shielded my eyes when the Colts had the ball on Sunday and my Week 4 NFL viewing experience was all the better for it.

Flex

My biggest dilemma of the week was what to do with the Flex position. I wanted Melvin Gordon ($8700) but to be honest, I didnít give enough thought and consideration to Saquon Barkley ($8000) and Ezekiel Elliott ($8200). All three have similar roles in the offense, receive solid passing game usage and get first crack around the goaline. Elliott is basically the entire Cowboys offense but had lagged Gordon in terms of fantasy point production over the first three weeks Ė a tribute to their slow pace of play and methodical approach. Tipping the scales in Gordonís favor was the game environment where the Chargers were heavy favorites (-10) at home with an implied team total of 28 versus the Cowboys (23 pts implied). Even with Austin Ekelerís established role in the offense, I was fine paying the ($500) premium for Gordon over Elliott in such a great spot.

Defense

There were a few obvious plays this week including Jacksonville ($5200) at home verses the Jets, the Chargers ($4400) against C.J. Beathard, the Packers ($4300) against the J.V. Bills and the Bears ($4300) against the turnover-prone Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Colts ($3600) were an interesting low-cost option against Deshaun Watson who had been sacked 10 times in the first three weeks and tends to be careless with the football when under pressure.

Results

This lineup left $300 on the table so you can argue a mistake was made in my two-v-two of Gordon and the Colts-D verses Elliott and the Bears or Packers-D (I wouldíve chosen the Bears). I will often sacrifice the Defense position in order to fit in the skill position player I covet but even though I projected Gordon for slightly higher production both workhorse running backs were in my same tier. I shouldíve come off of Gordon and went down to Elliott and strengthened my Defense position. In the end it didnít cost me as this lineup cashed across the board in 50/50ís and Double-ups making this the fourth-straight week in the green.

Thank you again, Tyler Boyd.