Week 3
9/20/02
Went an even 2-2 in week 2 as the Bears and Bucs came through for
us, while the Packers and Bengals continued to underperform preseason
expectations, each losing handily to the Saints and Browns.
Looking at this week, there really are not many games that look
very attractive to bet on (from our perspective of course). Considering
it is still early in the season, and there is not a lot of data
to analyze, a conservative approach is probably a good thing right
now. Here are a few games that look the most appealing.
New York Jets (1-1) at Miami
Dolphins (2-0)
The
Dolphins have looked virtually unstoppable in their first 2 games,
while the Jets, although they sit at 1-1, have looked like a team
without an identity on both sides of the ball. They were severely
humbled last week at the hands of the Patriots, losing 44-7. Coach
Herman Edwards, known for his motivational skills, really ripped
into his team after the embarrassment in front of their home crowd.
The thing about the Dolphins 2-0 start is they have not faced
very good competition. The Lions were a cakewalk in week 1, and
although the Colts have some star power, they have not played
very well and handed some easy INT to the Dolphins last week.
These teams have a recent history that is all Jets. They have
won 8 straight over the Dolphins including 24-0 and 20-3 scores
in Miami the past 2 years. Is this a new Dolphins team with RB
Ricky Williams? Perhaps, but if anything early happens to put
Miami in a hole, they will start to question themselves if they
can actually beat this Jets team or if the Jets just have their
number.
The Jets will definitely come out hard in the early going to
try to avoid further wrath from their coach. It is the offense
that really needs to show improvement and there is some opportunity
here as RB Curtis Martin should be healthier, and the Dolphins
could be without CB Patrick Surtain. The Jets promise to focus
on running the ball more, which will open up more and better opportunities
to pass, and most importantly, keep this a closely contested divisional
game from start to finish.
San Diego Chargers (2-0) at
Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
The Cardinals enter this game on a high, after running
roughshod over the Seahawks last week. For perhaps the first time
their expensive offensive line, minus RT Anthony Clement, produced
impressive results with RB Thomas Jones rushing for 173 yards
and one TD on 24 carries. Let's not get too excited about the
Cardinals running game just yet. If they produce on the ground
this week against a tough Chargers defense, we'll proclaim their
running game solid. It says here, they're not there yet.
Why is this so important? Because the Cardinals will need more
than Jake Plummer to David Boston to win this game. If they can't
control the ball and keep their defense off the field, San Diego
will pull this one out late or run away with it. Essentially the
Chargers defense has the tools to slow down the Cardinals offense,
with a stout run defense and a solid, physical corner in Ryan
McNeil who may not shut down Boston but should be able to prevent
him from having a huge game. Plummer has 294 yards passing in
the first two weeks of the season, with 187 of that going to Boston.
It's hard to win in this league when your QB has only one reliable
target. If Jones can't run, the Cardinals will double and triple
team Boston and take him out of this game.
The Chargers will pound RB LaDainian Tomlinson at the Cardinals
defense until they show they can stop him. The Cardinals have
undersized linemen and linebackers who probably won't hold up
against Tomlinson and a mediocre Chargers offensive line. In the
passing game, QB Drew Brees has played the conservative style
that Marty Schottenheimer expects out of his quarterbacks, producing
just one turnover.
The Cardinals haven't generated much of a pass rush and outside
of CB Duane Starks and FS Kwamie Lassiter, their defensive secondary
is weak and can be exploited. If the Cardinals have to bring either
SS Justin Lucas or Adrian Wilson (Wilson returned from injury
last week and saw limited action) up to the line in constant run
support, they're in deep trouble even against the Chargers less
than stellar receivers.
Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit
Lions (0-2)
The
Lions come into this one on a bit of a high. After giving up 49
points in week 1, they gave up only 31 last week. When you're
the Lions, that's how you measure improvement. Unfortunately,
it's doubtful they'll improve by 18 points this week. This team
is the laughingstock of the NFL and deservedly so. If you're in
a survivor league, pick against the Lions every week you can.
The Packers have underachieved thus far, at least in relation
to most preseason prognosticator's expectations. Their wide receivers
haven't performed on offense and their defense does not seem to
have improved despite the additions of DE Joe Johnson and LB Hardy
Nickerson. However, this week might be the coming out party for
each unit.
The Lions defense is ripe with injuries and it's an unimpressive
unit to begin with. This week they are missing perhaps their best
defensive player in DT Shaun Rogers and CB Eric Davis, and LB
Clint Kriewaldt might not play (yes, when you're the Lions, you
miss Clint Kriewaldt). RB Ahman Green looks doubtful for the Pack,
but QB Brett Favre should have no trouble picking apart a Lions
secondary that features Todd Lyght, Chris Cash, Jimmy Wyrick,
etc. at CB. With Green out, look for the Pack to throw early and
often against a Lions defense that is weak everywhere and cannot
generate a pass rush outside of DE Robert Porcher. Unless the
Pack is haunted by turnovers, they should put up close to 30 points
or more, even with a banged up offensive line.
Rookie QB Joey Harrington will make his first start for Detroit
and this might be one more example of the shortsightedness of
this organization. You can't blame Marty Mornhinweg for wanting
to start him because his job could be on the line, but from all
accounts the original plan was for Harrington to play sparingly
for the first 4-6 weeks and start no earlier than after the team's
bye week in week 5. By starting him this week, they throw him
into the fire without one of team's starting receivers (Bill Schroeder)
and with an offensive line that has yet to show it can run block
(3 yards per carry) or pass protect (9 sacks allowed). At least,
tight end Mikhael Ricks has exceeded expectations.
Always make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds.
Best odds listed above were checked at Intertops,
Olympic
Sports,  SportingbetUSA
and  SportsInteraction.
These opinions are posted for entertainment, recreational gambling
purposes only.
Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator
of Pro Football Analysis.com,
which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping
NFL football.
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