Week 4
9/27/02
Got an email this past week asking me to do a writeup and opinion
on all of the games. After a 3-4 start (1-2 last week), not sure
I should be treading into this territory, but what they heck. We'll
start off with the ones I feel most comfortable betting on, and
then the rest with some thoughts, but where the crystal ball is
a little cloudier.
Chicago Bears (2-1) at
Buffalo Bills (1-2)
My Bills are actually favored in
a game? Seems like it has been a while. I know everyone is loving
the Drew Bledsoe led Bills offense, who almost pulled an upset
in Denver last week, but does it make sense to favor them against
a legitimate playoff contender like the Bears? I think that is
a bit optimistic, even with the injuries the Bears have on defense.
The Bears didn't play 60 minutes last week, and still almost ousted
the Saints who are showing they are no slouches themselves. The
Bills Travis Henry has disappeared the past 2 weeks, and the Bills
defense is still ranking near the bottom of the league against
the run. While I would love for the Bills to pull to .500 this
week, they still have some growing pains to work through. Pound-for-pound,
the Bears are the better team right now, so even away from home
the brain says take them as a 3 point dog.
New Orleans Saints (3-0)
at Detroit Lions (0-3)
Lions fans got a glimmer of hope
for the future last week with a decent debut performance by Joey
Harrington. The future is still a long way off though, especially
with the team still burdened by poor management, poor coaching,
poor defense, a poor running game, poor receivers and poor protection.
Hey, at least the new stadium is nice, right? Unlike the Packers,
the Saints know how to play in a dome stadium, and the way their
offense is clicking and the defense is decent, but not spectacular,
at stopping the run and pass, I would expect them to wipe the
floor with the Lions this week. Anything less and they came in
taking the Lions for granted.
Carolina Panthers (3-0)
at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Another classic Rodney Peete
versus Brett Favre matchup. Ok, maybe not, but the Panthers have
to be doing something right under rookie head coach John Fox,
going undefeated so far. Yes, their competition has been less
than stellar, so a lot of people are expecting the Panthers to
show their true colors and fold like a deck of cards to the high
powered Packers. One problem though. The Packers have looked terrible
to start the season. Perhaps the open air of Lambeau will cure
the claustrophobia they've felt playing in dome stadiums the previous
two weeks, but upon closer inspection, this team has some real
problems. The defense is missing tackles and has no pass rush.
Also, the Pack are one of the most banged up teams in the league
right now, having lost DE Vonnie Holliday, S Antuan Edwards, OT
Mark Tauscher and others. Favre, Ahman Green returning and Lambeau
Field. Tough to go against that combination, but I'm looking for
the Panthers to show they are somewhat for real by controlling
the clock, pressuring Favre and keeping this game close.
Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
at St. Louis Rams (0-3)
The Rams can't possibly lose
to the Giants to fall to 0-2. Well, they will for sure turn it
on against the Bucs in primetime to avoid 0-3. Sound familiar?
Ok, so neither of those came through, but for sure they will destroy
the Cowboys at home and cover a 12 point spread. Uh, why? Unless
you can come up some valid reasons other than, "they are due"
then I'd have a tough time betting on them right now. The Rams
are not sharp. Marshall Faulk gets the green light this week after
straining his neck in the last game, but the team cannot protect
Kurt Warner. Mike Martz is so stubborn, I'm not sure he knows
how to run the ball 30 times a game whether that is in the team's
best interest or not. Complicating matters, they have now lost
their best lineman, LT Orlando Pace, for a few weeks. The defense
is struggling big time as it really only looks good when the offense
spots them 30+ points on the board, plus they have a couple key
injuries as well, most notably their best LB Tommy Polley is out.
Now, don't get me wrong, as I'm not saying the Cowboys are very
good in their own right. The team played horrible in the opener,
responded with a decent but unspectacular game against the Titans
and they were embarrassed last week to the Eagles. It is mostly
the offense that is the problem with Quincy Carter at QB. Too
many mistakes and turnovers basically hand the game over to their
opponent. The defense is actually pretty decent though, especially
at getting pressure on the QB. That is where they can work an
advantage against the Rams who are turning the ball over like
nobody's business. If the Cowboys can limit mistakes, run the
ball to control the clock and get some key plays on defense, it
would not be a shock if they pulled this one out. All of these
things are doable. The Rams are very unimpressive right now, especially
against a line needing them to win by almost 2 TD.
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Kansas City Chiefs
(1-2)
The Dolphins are rolling with Ricky Williams but watch
for Chris Chambers to perhaps get into the action this week against
an injury plagued and porous Chiefs secondary. The Chiefs just
about shocked the Patriots last week in a wide open affair starring
Priest Holmes. I'm inclined to think the Chiefs can keep this
one close on their home turf.
New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars
(1-1)
The Jets look absolutely horrible. Curtis Martin may
sit this week, making this game a prime candidate for Ewing Theorists
to jump on the underdog Jets, but after coach Herman Edwards read
the riot act before last week and they still came out with a whimper
against the Dolphins, it's tough to put much faith in them. The
Jaguars may be a little short on talent, but they are well coached
and they can certainly lean on the offensive threats that they
do have, being Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith. A 4 point cover at
home looks doable for them.
Houston Texans (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles
(2-1)
Ouch, don't like betting on any team to cover 20 points
on the spread, but considering the Texans have only mustered 25
total points through 3 games and the Eagles have not allowed an
offensive TD the past 2, 20 points doesn't seem all that unreasonable.
Keep your money in your pocket on this one.
Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers
(0-2)
Are the preseason favorite Steelers following down
the same path at the Rams? It would appear so, as their defense
has been exposed for being incapable of defending the pass in
their opening 2 games. While the Browns want to be a power running
team, they'd be best inclined to stick to the air in this one,
which, they are showing to be very proficient at. Should be a
great division matchup with each team's offensive strength battling
the opponent's defensive weakness. Seems to me Butch Davis draws
more out of his players than Bill Cowher is right now, and I don't
think a week off is enough for the Steelers to right their ship.
New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals
(1-2)
Kerry Collins was a game from tying a league record
for consecutive games with 300+ passing yards. Unfortunately,
he fell 18 yards short last week. Time to start a new streak,
as the Cardinals are surprisingly ok against the run but are terrible
defending the pass. Plus, they've lost their best CB Duane Starks
which doesn't help the cause. Jake Plummer is not playing well
and faces a Giants defense that is good, but not great, against
both the run and pass. Certainly enough to limit the Cards attack.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Cincinnati
Bengals (0-3)
Oh, those Bengals. Talent on the defense and
talent at RB and the offensive line, but they continue to be an
embarrassment. Akili Smith has been named the starter at QB, which
is actually a good thing because the team might as well see what
he can do. This league may have seen the last of Gus Frerotte
and Jon Kitna if Smith can stay healthy and do something (anything
would be better than the other two). The Bucs come off a huge
win Monday night and got banged up on the offensive line big time.
Some concerns about a letdown but the offense seems to be slowly
getting on the same page with coach Jon Gruden and the defense
should be able to handle the Bengals.
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Oakland Raiders
(2-0)
The Titans just plain blew the game last week. Simple
as that. They let a 14 point lead with 5 minutes remaining evaporate,
resulting in an overtime loss to the Browns. The Raiders have
transitioned to their new coach a lot better than I expected and
have cruised to relatively easy victories over the Seahawks and
Steelers. Interesting matchup of the day will be the Titans receivers
against the Raiders secondary without Charles Woodson, who is
out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. The Titans had better
find success through the air, because the trio of Rich Gannon,
Tim Brown and Jerry Rice are sure to do well against a poor Titans
secondary.
New England Patriots (3-0) at San Diego
Chargers (3-0)
A nice battle of two impressive, undefeated
teams. People are expecting a letdown from one or the other here,
especially after the Patriots had a mini-letdown last week that
almost resulted in a loss to the Chiefs. Chargers have not really
been tested so far while the Patriots have been forced into a
close game and still came out with the win. When it comes down
to it, taking a Bill Belichick coached team over a first year
starting QB seems like the right play to make.
Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks
(0-3)
Randy Ratio is out the window in Minnesota. Moss will
play after his midweek incident but bad karma continues to dog
this team that can't protect Daunte Culpepper and has a Swiss
cheese defense. Egad, the Seahawks are at home and will be wearing
those uniforms again that make you start adjusting the color on
your TV set. If Shaun Alexander doesn't have a big week this week,
then it might be time to bring back Ricky Watters.
Denver Broncos (3-0) at Baltimore Ravens
(0-2)
And Monday Night Football can't figure out why their
ratings keep going down? Well, scheduling teams like the 2002
Ravens is certainly one reason. Don't even get me started about
the endless commercial breaks slowing the game to a crawl. The
Broncos have been impressive, but don't be so quick to assume
the offense is responsible. The defense is looking good and should
have a field day against Chris Redman in this one. I'll take the
Broncos in a walk and I'll also give good odds I'll be in bed
before the 3rd quarter is done.
Always make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds.
Best odds listed above were checked at Intertops,
Olympic
Sports,  SportingbetUSA
and  SportsInteraction.
These opinions are posted for entertainment, recreational gambling
purposes only.
Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator
of Pro Football Analysis.com,
which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping
NFL football.
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