Brady’s 25 TDs and 11 picks were serviceable numbers, but not what we’ve come to expect from him. The stretch during 2013 that proved a microcosm of the season was between Weeks 5 and 10, when during that six game period he tossed only seven TDs—four of which came in the blowout win vs. Pittsburgh in Week 9. Something else to keep in mind about Brady. The Patriots have relied more heavily on their run game near the goal line. Last year, New England’s 19 rushing TDs were second in the league, and a vast majority of those were of the one-and two-yard variety. Those were situations in the past that Brady feasted on, giving fantasy owners countless “cheapy” TDs. But perhaps the biggest strain on Brady’s dwindling chances of returning to top-5 fantasy QB status is his less-than-elite receiving corp. When Julian Edelman is considered your fantasy quarterback’s No. 1 option on the outside, you’d probably be better served relying on someone else as an unquestioned QB1. I’m letting someone else draft Brady this year.

RB Steven Jackson, ATL – Steven Jackson’s rushing attempts and rushing yards have both decreased each of the previous four seasons, which says more about his diminishing skill set than anything else. The one-time bell cow for the Rams arrived in Atlanta last season amid heightened optimism, but that quickly fizzled out. After a fairly productive debut against New Orleans in Week 1, Jackson essentially missed the next four games with an injury.

Upon his return, he appeared to be a shadow of his former self. Jackson never eclipsed 84 yards on the ground in 2013, although he was able to supplement his abysmal rushing performances with a role in the passing game. An improved offensive line and the return of WR Julio Jones may have some owners clinging to hopes of a semi-return of the productive Steven Jackson circa 2006. But he is on the wrong side of 30, has battled hamstring issues all training camp, and rookie RB Devonta Freeman is destined to cut into Jackson’s playing time during the season. While Jackson’s current 7.02 ADP makes him an RB3 and thus not necessarily a foundational piece of your fantasy roster, it should be stated nonetheless that whatever production Jackson gives you should be considered an added bonus.

A rookie QB and no Gordon won't be good for Cameron.

TE Jordan Cameron, CLE – Jordan Cameron’s production during the first four games of the season had many considering him perhaps the steal of the 2013 fantasy season. He had 30 receptions for 360 yards and 5 TDs during the first quarter of last season but scored only twice over the remaining twelve games. And keep in mind that WR Josh Gordon was ripping defenses to shreds during the last three quarters of the season, essentially leaving Cameron as an afterthought to the opposition.

Now with Gordon’s anticipated absence this season (or at least the bulk of the season), Cameron now ascends to the No. 1 receiving threat in Cleveland. How he responds to the pressure and attention from opposing defenses remains to be seen. Another interesting dilemma facing Cameron is the looming promotion of Johnny Manziel. Getting acclimated to the travails of the NFL as a rookie while making his receivers viable fantasy options is asking a lot. Cameron will indeed have some solid games, but his overall production will be frustratingly inconsistent and perhaps too much for most fantasy owners to stomach.

RB Knowshon Moreno, MIA – Knowshon Moreno appeared in 16 games last year for the first time since his rookie year in 2009. He delivered stellar numbers as a result, posting career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs and receptions. The question most everyone has is, was that production a direct result of Peyton Manning’s presence at quarterback? The obvious answer is of course it was.

Denver’s front office had begun feeling a bit disenchanted with Moreno prior to 2013, which fueled the team’s interest in Montee Ball. Moreno is now in Miami battling underachiever Lamar Miller for playing time. Miami’s offensive line continues to be a work in progress after the upheaval on that unit last year. Moreno will soon see that Ryan Tannehill is no Peyton Manning, and will thus revert back to the average running back he was prior to last season. Only those stuck in a 2013 time warp will entertain the thought of Moreno playing as big a role on their team as he did last season.

WR Eric Decker, NYJ – Eric Decker is another 2013 Denver Bronco that will discover life in the NFL had never been as easy than when Peyton Manning was your quarterback. Decker developed into one of the best No. 2 fantasy receivers in the league the last two seasons, posting 173 catches and 24 TDs in that span. The Jets tossed a ton of dough in his lap, making his decision to depart the offensive juggernaut in Denver for the comparatively humdrum offense in The Big Apple a relative no-brainer.

While that decision made sense for Decker on a personal level, football-wise is was questionable. Geno Smith is…well…Geno Smith. He’s still developing as a quarterback, and Decker’s chances of becoming fantasy-relevant hinge on the right arm of the second-year QB. There’s another issue that makes Decker a prime candidate to struggle in 2014. He plays in a defensively underrated division. Buffalo was second in the league in sacks last season, and they should pick up where they left off with new coordinator Jim Schwartz; Miami is hit or miss at times defensively, but CB Brent Grimes will give Decker fits; and New England now has Darrelle Revis to lock down opposing receivers. All of this translates into Decker coming up far short of his production from last year.

SHINE

QB Jay Cutler, CHI – There was a lot of silly talk late last year about how Chicago should keep Josh McCown over Jay Cutler after he played magnificently in Cutler’s absence. McCown’s numbers, indeed, dwarfed Cutler’s, but come on now. Cutler is as talented as they come, and a second year in head coach Marc Trestman’s offense should pay huge dividends.

Any discussion of Cutler’s potential this year can’t be had without mentioning the prowess of his two receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Both present big time mismatches and are fantasy studs in their own right. But Cutler is the bigger bargain of the three. His current 9.02 ADP is grand larceny for those fortunate enough to steal him. It’s laughable in my estimation that quarterbacks such as Cam Newton (7.08) and Robert Griffin III (6.12) are being selected before him. Insane. Cutler will end this season as a top-7 fantasy QB.

WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI – It’s easy for fantasy owners to forget how much promise Jeremy Maclin has shown in his career. He exploded onto the scene during his second season in 2010, going off for 70 catches and 10 TDs. Maclin’s numbers dipped the following two seasons—a direct result of Michael Vick’s struggles at quarterback. Now getting a taste of the imaginative offense orchestrated by head coach Chip Kelly, Maclin is bound to put up great numbers.

The continued maturation of Nick Foles is good news to Maclin, and with the departure of DeSean Jackson, he becomes the de facto number one receiving option. He’s not the deep threat that Jackson is, but I believe he’s more reliable overall as a fantasy option. Even though the Eagles have the reputation as a highflying offense, they were fifth in the league in rushing attempts and 27th in pass attempts. It’s simply their quick pace and efficiency in the passing game that give the impression of a throw-the-ball-all-over-the-field approach. Philly’s seemingly limited passing attempts, though, will not limit or hurt Maclin’s production this year; he should be a very dependable mid-level WR2 in this offense in 2014.

RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT – From Willie Parker, to Rashard Mendenhall to Jonathan Dwyer, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been searching for a long-term replacement for Jerome Bettis since The Bus called it quits in 2005. It seems they may have found that player in Le’Veon Bell. Bell worked through a training camp injury last year to put up numbers worthy of a RB2. Many fantasy owners are now banking on the second year pro to be a productive RB1, and he’s primed to do just that.

Some football analysts frown on Bell’s supposed aversion to physically play and mention his desire to hurdle would-be tacklers as proof. Who cares if he doesn’t like contact? Bell’s small-player skill set packaged in his 230 lb. body actually paints a picture of a uniquely gifted athlete that could give fantasy owners production either through the air or on the ground. And with the Steelers building their passing game around the emerging Antonio Brown, and with Emmanuel Sanders’ departure to Denver, Bell is set up to be the kind of supplemental component in Pittsburgh’s aerial assault that gives him amazing value in fantasy football. He’s an emerging fantasy stud.

WR Michael Crabtree, SF – San Francisco’s passing game was pretty pedestrian in 2013, especially early in the year. The team netted more than 200 passing yards a mere two times in the season’s first 10 games. Michael Crabtree’s absence in the first 11 games of the season due to injury played a major role in that. He comes in healthy this year, and with the 49ers’ attention focused on fortifying the receiver corps during the offseason (Steve Johnson from Buffalo), Crabtree is poised to do major damage this year.

Crabtree will be paired with Johnson and Anquan Boldin, along with TE Vernon Davis. That’s enough complementary talent around Crabtree to ensure he’s not the Lone Ranger in the passing game. One can look at Crabtree’s production from 2012 as a foundation of his ability. While playing alongside an average Mario Manningham and a washed up Randy Moss, he finished that season with 85 catches and nine TDs—more than twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team. It was during 2012 that he showed the NFL universe that he could maintain productivity even while facing defenses designed to stop him. Now with a much-improved supporting cast, the table is set for Crabtree to deliver big numbers in 2014. He will be a solid and productive WR2.

TE Greg Olsen, CAR – Greg Olsen has been nothing if not a consistent TE2 in fantasy football over the last couple of seasons. His receptions, yardage and receiving TDs from 2012 and 2013 are eerily similar and point to a player that has a predictable role in his team’s offense. That role in 2014, though, will almost assuredly expand. Apparently Carolina feels comfortable enough with rookie Kelvin Benjamin and 32-year-old veteran Jerricho Cotchery that it felt the need not to do much else with the position.

Even with the struggles of fellow pass catchers last season, Olsen was still able to make himself fantasy-relevant. That shouldn’t change in 2014. Olsen is crafty enough to carve out space in the middle of the field while making himself available to the quarterback. And with quarterback Cam Newton’s modified approach to the position—less reliance on running and more on getting the football downfield to his playmakers—Olsen can, and will, be huge in the passing game. He has tremendous hands and enough athleticism to make him a plausible threat through the air.