Running Back by Committee
7/8/12
“The Bell Cow is extinct."
– Cincinnati Bengals OC Jay Gruden
Fantasy owners are well aware of the prevalence of the running
back by committee (RBBC) in the NFL today. At this point we must
embrace the fact that only a handful of running backs will see
a significant amount of carries each season going forward. Here
is a breakdown of the teams that are expected to utilize a RBBC,
the splits from last year, and a look at what may transpire during
the 2012 season.
| Buffalo - 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Fred Jackson |
170 |
43.5 |
934 |
48.6 |
5.5 |
39 |
442 |
| C.J. Spiller |
107 |
27.4 |
561 |
29.2 |
5.2 |
39 |
269 |
| All Others |
114 |
29.2 |
426 |
22.2 |
3.7 |
|
|
| Totals |
391 |
100.0 |
1921 |
100.0 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Veteran Fred Jackson
was having a career season before fracturing his fibula in the Week
10 contest against Miami. Prior to that, the Bills’ coaching
staff was beginning to utilize backup running back C.J. Spiller
as a slot receiver in order to get him on the field more and utilize
his game-breaking speed in open spaces. Jackson’s injury,
however, opened the door for Spiller to push for more playing time
out of the backfield in 2012. Spiller averaged nearly 75 rushing
yards per game and scored five total touchdowns in those last six
games as a starter, showing why the Bills spent the ninth overall
pick on him in the 2010 draft. Jackson will be back in his starting
role after receiving a contract extension this offseason, but the
team will surely utilize Spiller to keep the 31-year-old Jackson
healthy and fresh during what the Bills hope to be a playoff season.
Expect a 60-40 split between the two backs this year.
| Chicago - 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Matt Forte |
203 |
44.5 |
997 |
49.5 |
4.9 |
52 |
490 |
| Marion Barber |
114 |
25.0 |
422 |
20.9 |
3.7 |
5 |
50 |
| All Others |
139 |
30.5 |
596 |
29.6 |
4.3 |
|
|
| Totals |
456 |
100.0 |
2015 |
100.0 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Matt Forte has been a workhorse for Chicago, at times
being practically the entire Bears offense. However, a quad injury
cost him the later part of the 2011 season, forcing the Bears to
utilize other options. This year one of those options will be Michael
Bush, who was no stranger to the RBBC while he was a teammate of
Darren McFadden in Oakland. Even if Forte doesn’t miss any
of the preseason because of his contract squabble, expect his snaps
to be scaled back, with Bush offering a much more legitimate option
for the Bears than the washed-up veterans that Chester Taylor and
Marion Barber have been in backing up Forte the last two seasons.
Much like Forte, Bush isn’t a dynamic runner, but both backs
are solid in all aspects of the position, including catching the
ball out of the backfield. Forte should see the majority of the
snaps, provided he ends his holdout before the season starts, but
Bush should impact Forte’s final numbers, which in past seasons
resulted from the high volume of touches he received.
| Carolina -
2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| DeAngelo Williams |
155 |
34.8 |
836 |
34.7 |
5.4 |
16 |
135 |
| Jonathan Stewart |
142 |
31.9 |
761 |
31.6 |
5.4 |
47 |
413 |
| All Others |
148 |
33.2 |
811 |
33.6 |
5.4 |
|
|
| Totals |
445 |
|
2408 |
100.00 |
5.4 |
|
|
|
Carolina is a true committee when it comes to running the football
especially when you consider the kind of performance quarterback
Cam Newton put up on the ground last season (126 att, 706 yards,
14 TDs) and the addition of running back Mike Tolbert won't make
things any easier on fantasy owners when trying to decipher the
Panthers' running game for draft day. Stewart's numbers in the passing
game are the key stat to consider - his 413 yards receiving gives
him an edge over Williams in terms of fantasy value and even though
Williams found paydirt more often than Stewart last season (7-5),
the tendency for the Panthers to use
Stewart more in the redzone makes him the RB to choose first
on draft day.
| Cincinnati
- 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Cedric Benson |
273 |
60.0 |
1067 |
60.0 |
3.9 |
15 |
82 |
| Bernard Scott |
112 |
24.6 |
380 |
21.4 |
3.4 |
13 |
38 |
| All Others |
70 |
15.4 |
331 |
18.6 |
4.7 |
|
|
| Totals |
455 |
100.0 |
1778 |
100.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: We finally come to a team that traditionally has not
used the RBBC, relying instead on a power running game behind one
workhorse back. This offseason the Bengals signed former Patriot
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (another “three yard and a cloud of
dust” type runner in the tradition of Rudi Johnson and Cedric
Benson) to presumably handle the rushing load. However, offensive
coordinator Jay Gruden has proclaimed the bell-cow as dead, and
has stated that the Bengals will be relying on backup Bernard Scott
and fullback Brian Leonard more than in the past, in true RBBC form.
For my money, I have my doubts, as the team has insisted each offseason
that Scott will receive more carries but has never followed through.
Leonard is a capable third-down back and will likely fill that role
once again, but expect BJGE to see a solid but unspectacular 260-280
carries and the important goal-line work for the Bengals in 2012.
The team was content to give the plodding Cedric Benson 60 percent
of the carries in 2011, and head coach Marvin Lewis prefers a ball-control
offense that supports his tough defense.
| Detroit - 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Jahvid Best |
84 |
23.6 |
390 |
25.6 |
4.6 |
27 |
287 |
| Maurice Morris |
80 |
22.5 |
316 |
20.8 |
4.0 |
26 |
230 |
| All Others |
192 |
53.9 |
817 |
53.6 |
4.3 |
|
|
| Totals |
356 |
100.0 |
1523 |
100.0 |
4.3 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Injuries wreaked havoc on the running back depth chart
for Detroit in 2011. Rookie Mikel Leshoure was lost in the preseason
to an Achilles rupture, the explosive Jahvid Best suffered his third
major concussion, and former Lion Kevin Smith was brought back and
resurrected his career filling in, until he himself succumbed to
the injury bug. This offseason, head coach Jim Schwartz has stated
that he would like to model his running game on New Orleans’
distribution, with Leshoure acting as Ingram, Best as Sproles, and
Smith as Thomas. Given the injury history of the three backs, it
would seem wise to limit their carries and take advantage of their
strengths in this way. Best has the most upside of the group, but
also the most risk. Reports have surfaced that he’s free from
all symptoms of his latest concussion, but of course owners will
be holding their breath with each devastating hit he takes. Leshoure
will sit out the first two weeks with a suspension stemming from
two offseason marijuana busts, but starting in Week 3 this should
be a true RBBC, which obviously limits the upside of all three backs.
| Houston - 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Arian Foster |
278 |
50.9 |
1224 |
50.0 |
4.4 |
53 |
617 |
| Ben Tate |
175 |
32.1 |
942 |
38.5 |
5.4 |
13 |
98 |
| All Others |
93 |
17.0 |
282 |
11.5 |
3.0 |
|
|
| Totals |
546 |
100.0 |
2448 |
100.0 |
4.5 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Now here’s a RBBC that fantasy owners can get
behind. Arian Foster is a workhorse back, of course, but there will
be enough carries in Houston to allow Ben Tate to be more than just
a “handcuff.” Houston tied Denver for the most rushing
attempts in the NFL last season, and they didn’t have a quarterback
like Tim Tebow toting the rock on a consistent basis. Tate was most
valuable during the early season when a hamstring injury kept Foster
on the sidelines, but he was a useful flex option in favorable matchups
even while Foster was earning the right to be considered the No.
1 overall selection in fantasy drafts this summer. This season should
be more of the same, so if you draft Foster early, you may have
to reach a little to ensure yourself his handcuff before some one
else makes Tate their RB3.
| New England
- 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
181 |
41.3 |
667 |
37.8 |
3.7 |
9 |
159 |
| Stevan Ridley |
87 |
19.9 |
441 |
25.0 |
5.1 |
3 |
13 |
| Danny Woodhead |
77 |
17.6 |
351 |
19.9 |
4.6 |
18 |
157 |
| All Others |
93 |
21.2 |
305 |
17.3 |
3.3 |
|
|
| Totals |
438 |
100.0 |
1764 |
100.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: New England has been leading the RBBC charge since
Corey Dillon was put out to pasture quite a number of years ago.
Contrary to popular opinion, the Patriots actually run the ball
more than many teams in the NFL, and they do so quite effectively.
It’s just that Bill Belichick’s propensity to game plan
his running attack has frustrated fantasy owners enough that it's
forced them to wash their hands of the whole mess. Last season’s
leading rusher, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, was allowed to walk in free
agency, opening the door for last year's two rookies to increase
their workload. Steven Ridley was starting to show fairly well late
last season, until fumbles pushed him back onto the bench. Ridley
is a more athletic version of Green-Ellis and could strive against
the nickel defenses most teams employ against New England. Shane
Vereen didn’t see much time as a rookie but was considered
by many experts to be the more complete back between the two draftees.
It would not be shocking to see him pass Ridley on the depth chart
and add a game-breaking element to the New England running game
that has not been there for years. Of course the over-achieving
Belichick favorite, Danny Woodhead, and former Colt Joseph Addai
are still in the mix, which will make anyone considering taking
a New England back on draft day a little uneasy. While it’s
not necessarily a situation to avoid altogether, one should proceed
with caution.
| New Orleans
- 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Mark Ingram |
122 |
28.3 |
474 |
22.3 |
3.9 |
11 |
46 |
| Pierre Thomas |
110 |
25.5 |
562 |
26.4 |
5.1 |
50 |
425 |
| Darren Sproles |
87 |
20.2 |
603 |
28.4 |
6.9 |
86 |
710 |
| All Others |
112 |
26.0 |
488 |
22.9 |
4.4 |
|
|
| Totals |
431 |
100.0 |
2127 |
100.0 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Until rookie Mark Ingram went down with injury, the
three-headed monster that was the New Orleans running game was very
effective in 2011. Even after Ingram was hurt, the rushing attack
did not miss a beat as Chris Ivory stepped in and took over the
power-rushing role that Ingram was handling. In other words, fantasy
owners shouldn’t expect things to change much in 2012. Ingram
will likely be the early-down and power back for the Saints, with
Sproles entering as the change-of-pace and third-down back. The
underrated Pierre Thomas should continue to get a couple of series
per half in order to spell Ingram and could even see more snaps
in some games than the sophomore, depending on the flow of the game.
In PPR leagues Sproles will continue to be a high-end RB2, while
Ingram and Thomas will be great depth that may garner consideration
for the flex spot in your lineup. Keep an eye on the waiver wire
to pounce on Ivory, should Ingram or Thomas be expected to miss
a game or two.
| New York Giants
- 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Ahmad Bradshaw |
171 |
41.6 |
659 |
46.2 |
3.9 |
34 |
267 |
| Brandon Jacobs |
152 |
37.0 |
571 |
40.0 |
3.8 |
15 |
128 |
| All Others |
88 |
21.4 |
197 |
13.8 |
2.2 |
|
|
| Totals |
411 |
100.0 |
1427 |
100.0 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Once again a chronic foot issue limited Ahmad Bradshaw’s
production in 2011. The Giants uncharacteristically struggled to
run the ball, even while Bradshaw was healthy. The coaching staff
has traditionally favored a RBBC approach to its backfield—and
usually one with a “Thunder and Lightning” type tandem.
Brandon Jacobs was allowed to walk in free agency, but that doesn’t
necessarily put Bradshaw in the driver’s seat for bell-cow
carries. Astute GM Jerry Reese spent a first-round pick on talented
Virginia Tech runner David Wilson, who led the nation in yards after
contact during the 2011 season. Wilson has received high praise
from offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride for his offseason workouts,
where he has shown to be more “explosive” than any player
the Giants have had in recent years. Don’t be shocked to see
Wilson slowly overtake Bradshaw for the lion’s share of carries
as the season wears on, as he’s virtually the same player
with better speed—plus he has the benefit of possessing two
healthy feet.
| San Francisco-
2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Frank Gore |
282 |
56.6 |
1211 |
59.3 |
4.3 |
17 |
114 |
| Kendall Hunter |
112 |
22.5 |
473 |
23.1 |
4.2 |
16 |
195 |
| All Others |
104 |
20.9 |
360 |
17.6 |
3.5 |
|
|
| Totals |
498 |
100.0 |
2044 |
100.0 |
4.1 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Frank Gore played all 16 games last year for the first
time since 2006 and ran for over 1,200 yards as the feature back
in San Francisco. A look at his second-half splits, however, shows
that he slowed down considerably as the season wore on. His per-carry
average plummeted to 3.2 during the final eight games of 2011. He
also had his least effective season as a pass catcher with only
17 receptions. The writing is on the wall: Gore will likely lose
his status as a bell-cow back as the team shifts to a RBBC format
in 2012. Last year San Francisco drafted Kendall Hunter, who showed
flashes in a limited role. The team also drafted the explosive LaMichael
James this offseason, after having already added Brandon Jacobs
in free agency. It sure looks like Gore will be losing some touches.
Gore will probably still receive above 40 percent of the carries
for the 49ers, but his fantasy value will take a big hit if Jacobs
is used as the goal-line back, and it certainly looks like Hunter
or James will be used as the third-down back, which means even Gore's
limited receptions of last season could decrease. Personally, I’ll
be letting someone else draft Gore in Round 3 or 4 this summer.
| Tampa Bay -
2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| LeGarrette Blount |
184 |
53.2 |
781 |
53.6 |
4.2 |
15 |
148 |
| Earnest Graham |
37 |
10.7 |
206 |
14.1 |
5.6 |
26 |
163 |
| All Others |
125 |
36.1 |
471 |
32.3 |
3.8 |
|
|
| Totals |
346 |
100.0 |
1458 |
100.0 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Tampa was only really a RBBC last season because LeGarrette
Blount lacked the skill set to pass block and catch the ball out
of the backfield. Otherwise he was the feature back—until
the end of the season, that is, when the Buccaneers defense became
a sieve, virtually eliminating the running game from their offense.
Blount’s production dropped off considerably from his impressive
rookie season, but his 4.24 ypc shows he wasn’t quite as bad
as fantasy owners tend to believe. The new coaching staff traded
back into Round 1 to pick impressive Boise State product Doug Martin,
who has been compared stylistically to new head coach Greg Schiano’s
college workhorse, Ray Rice. Martin should take over right away
as the third-down back at least, and many are predicting he’ll
push Blount aside altogether. Fantasy owners should be reminded,
however, that in recent seasons other highly drafted and highly
touted rookies like Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart, Jamal Charles, Mark
Ingram, Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy didn’t come right in
and make their team’s veteran incumbents immediately obsolete.
Blount could very well hold off the inexperienced Martin during
the 2012 season and earn 55-60 percent of the carries, so don’t
over-draft Martin unless the situation becomes more clear as the
preseason plays out.
| Washington
- 2011 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Roy Helu |
151 |
37.8 |
640 |
39.7 |
4.2 |
49 |
379 |
| Tim Hightower |
94 |
23.5 |
321 |
19.9 |
3.4 |
10 |
78 |
| All Others |
155 |
38.8 |
653 |
40.5 |
4.2 |
|
|
| Totals |
400 |
100.0 |
1614 |
100.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
|
2012 Outlook: Anyone reading this column is probably familiar with
the term “Shanahanigans.” While, surprisingly, Mike
Shanahan has typically not run a RBBC within a particular game,
he does treat the season as one big RBBC. It seems that just when
you think you’ve figured out his running back rotation, he’ll
throw you a curve, as he did last season when he started Ryan Torain
out of the blue in Week 4 at the expense of then starter Tim Hightower.
Torain quickly returned to insignificance following that big fantasy
week, however. Rookie Roy Helu seemed to be the most effective back
for the ’Skins in 2011, but just when fantasy owners started
thinking they could count on him, a minor injury opened the door
for fellow rookie Evan Royster, who finished the season with consecutive
100-yard efforts. As you can see, Washington featured four different
running backs in various games. Hightower started the 2011 season
as the main running back before tearing his ACL. He was re-signed
in the offseason, so there is some speculation that he will return
to his starting role if he remains healthy. But for a back that
was already one of the slowest in the league, it may take some time
for his burst to return. The safe bet for fantasy owners is Helu,
who should see 10-15 touches a game even if Hightower is healthy,
and who could see an even higher workload if he shows he can handle
it. Helu's one-cut-and-go style fits the Shanahan zone-blocking
scheme perfectly, and he could see a big number of check-down receptions
in quarterback Robert Griffin III’s rookie season. |
