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Salvatore Marcoccio | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

2016 Player Outlooks: Buffalo Bills
7/14/16

 

Tyrod Taylor

Tyrod Taylor sneaks into the low-end QB1 discussion if Sammy Watkins stays healthy all season.


QB Tyrod Taylor
(2015 QB Rank - No.18, 22.3 FPts/G)

Former Ravens backup Tyrod Taylor surprisingly won the Bills starting quarterback job over former first round pick EJ Manuel and veteran Matt Cassel last pre-season. He then proved that head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Greg Roman made the right choice. In 14 games, Taylor threw for 3,035 yards with 20 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions while also adding 568 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. Reports from Buffalo’s OTAs and minicamp have been positive about Taylor’s improvement, but the franchise still does not want to commit to him long term. They will let him play out the last year of his contract before deciding whether they want to offer him franchise quarterback type money.

Roman ran a conservative run-heavy offense, and with Rex Ryan famous for his “ground and pound” philosophy don’t expect that to change much in 2016. Taylor is a bit undersized at 6’1” and 215 pounds, but has decent downfield accuracy and did not turn the ball over making him valuable in the conservative Bills’ offense. He was also a big part of the rushing attack which increases his value against his peers. He finished second only to Cam Newton in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks. Taylor needs to show an improved command of the offense but the former sixth-round pick is only 26 years old and has the upside to improve in his second season as a starter. With his ability to gain yards on the ground and a legitimate difference maker on the outside (Sammy Watkins) Taylor is a perfect high ceiling fantasy QB2.

RB LeSean McCoy
(2015 RB Rank - No.17, 12.4 FPts/G)

The Bills made a big splash last off-season trading for Philadelphia’s starting running back and immediately offered him a big contract extension. McCoy showed some flashes of his 2013 form, but just like his last season with the Eagles he was a mild disappointment in Buffalo. At times he looked inferior to his rookie backup Karlos Williams. When it was all said and done, McCoy missed four games and finished the season with only 895 rushing yards and 32 receptions for an additional 292 yards with 5 total touchdowns. Despite a down season, McCoy still managed to finish as a solid RB2.

This off-season McCoy was involved in a bar room brawl that sent two off-duty police officers to the hospital, but after a thorough investigation he will not face charges, and is unlikely to see any league discipline. McCoy just turned 28, and while he’s on the right side of 30, he looks like he may have peaked in 2013 under Chip Kelly. He sat out the final two weeks of the 2015 season with a torn MCL, but that shouldn’t present any issues for 2016. The Bills’ offense will surely present a heavy workload for McCoy, even with Karlos Williams coming on as a rookie and the team drafting another talented back in Jonathan Williams out of Arkansas. The Bills finished second in rushing attempts last season and could very well lead this league this year. McCoy hasn’t been much of a touchdown threat (5 total last year) and that shouldn’t won’t change anytime soon. Karlos Williams excelled last year in the redzone and QB Tyrod Taylor (19) had almost as many runs inside the 20 as McCoy (20) did. If he stays healthy and the Bills offense improves in its second season with Greg Roman, it’s not out of the question that McCoy could squeeze into RB1 status if he finds the endzone a few more times, but more than likely his ceiling is capped as a RB2.

RB Karlos Williams
(2015 RB Rank - No.31, 10.5 FPts/G)

With LeSean McCoy being paid like a superstar, the fifth round pick out of Florida State, Karlos Williams, wasn’t on many fantasy radars heading into last season. However, in only 11 games, many of which were as the change of pace runner to McCoy, Williams gained 517 yards and scored seven times on the ground. He also added two more touchdowns on only 11 catches showing big-play ability. He came into minicamp overweight blaming his fiancés pregnancy and his sympathy eating, so hopefully he’ll show more discipline before training camp or he could find himself in a battle with Jonathan Williams and Mike Gillislee for playing time. Williams is a battering ram with quick feet who finds a way to keep moving forward and became only the seventh player in NFL history to score a touchdown in his first five games. He should see time in redzone packages at McCoy’s expense making him a decent later round flier at the position. On the downside, Williams showed a penchant for getting nicked up. He suffered a concussion, a shoulder injury and a knee injury as a rookie, as his 6’1” frame and upright running style make him a target for big hits from defenders.

Update 7/15/16: Williams has been suspended by the league 4 games for violating the leagues substance abuse policy.

WR Sammy Watkins
(2015 WR Rank - No.15, 13.2 FPts/G)

Watkins showed vast improvement as a sophomore receiver finishing the year with 60 catches for 1,047 yards and 9 touchdowns after coming on strong down the stretch. He had off-season surgery for a stress fracture to his foot, and news about his availability for training camp and even for Week 1 has been erratic to say the least. He posted a video of himself in early July running in a straight line and predicted he’ll be available for the start of training camp. The Bills will likely err on the side of caution however and limit his practice time in camp. Watkins looks dominant at times, showing well against the league’s top cornerbacks like Darrelle Revis, and averaged 5.4 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown over his last nine games. With some improvement from quarterback Tyrod Taylor, Watkins could be poised for a monster season, but the foot injury will need to be monitored and potential owners will need to deal and be comfortable with the associated injury risk.

WR Robert Woods
(2015 WR Rank - No.62, 5.2 FPts/G)

Apologies to Leonard Hankerson, but the team failed to add anyone of significance at the wide receiver position so the somewhat disappointing Robert Woods should hold onto his starting spot by default. Reports state the former second round pick played through a torn groin injury last season and is now healthy and looked explosive during OTAs, but off-season fluff pieces do not always materialize into success. Woods runs sharp routes and has steady hands but his ceiling is only that of a solid possession wideout at the professional level, and he’s never caught more than 65 balls in his three seasons. The last two years he’s managed only 11.7 and 10.8 yards per reception and has only scored 11 times in three seasons, so without heavy volume his fantasy upside is fairly low. In a run-based offense and behind Sammy Watkins in the pecking order, it’s hard to imagine a heavy volume coming to fruition.

TE Charles Clay
(2015 TE Rank - No.19, 5.4 FPts/G)

Charles Clay was another big money off-season acquisition by the Bills that did not quite live up to expectations last season. The team paid him as an elite tight end, but Clay missed the team’s last three games with a back injury and finished the season with only 51 receptions for 528 yards and 3 touchdowns. The coaching staff has lamented the fact that he wasn’t targeted enough, and would like that to change in 2016. That could lead to Clay being a value play in fantasy football this season. Clay came into the league as fullback/tight end hybrid, and showed run after the catch ability while putting up some productive seasons with the Miami Dolphins. He should be a valuable piece in the Bills conservative offense as he has the size to play underneath and can make plays in the open field. He agreed to restructure his contract this off-season, but still carries a hefty price tag, and with very few options behind Sammy Watkins, the staff’s promise to get him more involved is likely genuine as he’s the team’s second most dangerous option in the passing game. The conservative nature of the Bills passing game doesn’t help his fantasy prospects leaving Clay’s ceiling at a backend TE1 level. You could do worse as a depth option at the position though.