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Salvatore Marcoccio | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


2016 Player Outlooks: Dallas Cowboys
7/27/16


QB Tony Romo
(2015 QB Rank - No.41, 16.4 Fpts/G)

Tony Romo’s weak collarbone made him a fantasy bust last season when he missed 12 games after breaking the bone two different times. In the two games where he left with injury his fantasy owners were left with poor results as he failed to reach 200 yards or throw a touchdown in either game. The Cowboys’ offensive skill players suffered as a result. The team has once again failed to add a competent backup, so the Cowboys will need to pray the best offensive line in the game and a strong running game will help keep Romo on the field instead of on the sidelines in street clothes. After spending the fourth overall pick in the draft on Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliot, the coaching staff is likely preparing to return to the 2014 run-heavy game plan which led to a playoff appearance for the Cowboys. Fantasy owners must keep in mind that although Romo was very efficient and productive during that season, the team finished 31st in pass attempts capping Romo’s upside. He did throw for 34 scores that season, but was held to only 3,705 yards in 15 games, finishing as only a fringe fantasy QB1. At nearly 37 years of age, it’s hard to imagine Romo becoming less brittle than he’s been, making him an option on draft day only if he drops into double digit rounds.

RB Ezekiel Elliott
(2015 RB Rank - N/A)

The Cowboys used a high draft pick on a running back despite having holes all over the defense, which likely means they plan to use Ezekiel Elliott heavily this season. Elliot finished his career at OSU with 3,961 yards and 43 touchdowns also catching 58 balls and leading the Buckeyes to a national championship. At 225 pounds he possesses 4.47 speed with elite strength and balance. He’ll be running behind one of the best run blocking lines in the game, making him a viable early round pick despite being an “unknown”. The Cowboys have been a machine moving the ball on the ground, ranking 12th and 3rd in run/pass ratio the last two seasons and even excelled with Darren McFadden last year without the support of a legitimate passing game. Elliott is a complete back and arguably the best blocking and receiving back on the team so he should be used as a true workhorse. Fantasy owners are excited by his prospects and rightfully so as their hasn’t been a rookie runner that’s combined the levels of talent, situation and opportunity in quite a while, and it’s not unfathomable to see him leading the league in rushing and scoring double digit touchdowns. There will be many fantasy leagues where the rookie is selected in Round 1.

I would be remiss not to mention the recent police report filed against Elliot by his girlfriend alleging domestic abuse. While there is reportedly some evidence that will show the allegations are manufactured, at the present time we simply do not know the true story. Keep an eye out for the latest news on that subject and adjust accordingly.

RB Darren McFadden
(2015 RB Rank - No.13, 10.0 Fpts/G)

Many fantasy owners and NFL commentators had left Darren McFadden for dead after a string of uninspiring years with Oakland. However after Joseph Randle was lost to injury, all DMC did was average 4.6 yards per carry on his way to 1,089 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns along with 40 receptions. McFadden’s straight ahead style worked well with the superior blocking on the Dallas line, and while he wasn’t flashy or exciting he was effective. A broken elbow suffered this offseason will put his Week 1 status in doubt, which may open the door for off-season acquisition Alfred Morris to win the backup job behind the rookie, but the coaching staff may have some loyalty to McFadden after his 2015 yeoman’s work. Whoever wins the backup job isn’t likely to see much work behind the rookie, but even the top rated prospects fail, and of course the latest off-field news could put some or all of Elliott’s season in jeopardy. McFadden or Morris has handcuff value for an owner who selects Elliott, but their value would obviously skyrocket if Elliot misses significant time.

Dez Bryant

Fantasy owners are chalking up Bryant's 2015 season as an anomaly. He's a borderline Round 1 pick.


WR Dez Bryant
(2015 WR Rank - No.78, 6.5 Fpts/G)

Between his own foot injury, from which he likely came back too early, and Romo’s twice broken collarbone, Dez Bryant had by far his worst season in 2015. In nine games he only caught 31 balls for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Cowboys did nothing to upgrade their backup quarterback position so Romo missing time again is a risk for Bryant, but as long as his foot is completely healed there’s little reason to doubt a complete bounce back season for the veteran. Bryant had 56 touchdown receptions in his first five seasons and has been an unstoppable force in the redzone given his hulking size and strength at 6’2” and 220 pounds.

Bryant has been cleared for the start of training camp and should quickly get over the mental hurdles associated with trusting his surgically repaired foot. Fantasy owners shouldn’t dismiss his 2015 season in their evaluation but should give considerable weight to his three-year averages from 2012-2014 (91-1311-13.7) when making their 2016 projections. Bryant is an emotional player who should come out with a chip on his shoulder and dominate, as he is clearly the best player on offensive side of the ball for Dallas. Those that draft him will need to cross their fingers and hope that Romo’s collarbone, and the rest of him as well, holds up for the entire season.

WR Terrance Williams
(2015 WR Rank - No.44, 6.8 Fpts/G)

Fourth year wideout Terrence Williams will enter his contract year trying to make up for what has been a rather mediocre three seasons in the league. While he did score 8 touchdowns on only 37 catches as a sophomore he failed to build on his 2014 campaign and finished with a disappointing 52-840-3 statline in 2015. In fairness, all of the Cowboy pass catchers struggled without Tony Romo on the field, so this will be a make or break year for the former Baylor Bear. Williams will have the benefit of not being the focus of opposing defenses with Bryant lined up across from him and with tight end Jason Witten still commanding targets, but the flip side is the two veterans will be Tony Romo’s preferred options almost every time he drops back. With an offense expected to be built on the running game, Williams’ targets may not be enough to warrant anything more than a bye week filler in fantasy circles. Still, the 6’2” 200 pound wideout has flashed some big play ability in the past and could gain more of Romo’s trust if Bryant misses any time and/or if Witten continues to decline. It’s hard to have much confidence in Williams fantasy value and the risk of another Romo injury makes the risk exceed any potential reward.

WR Cole Beasley
(2015 WR Rank - No.54, 5.2 Fpts/G)

Diminutive fifth year wide receiver Cole Beasley has showed up on the PPR radar at times and is coming off his best season as a professional finishing with 52 catches for 536 yards and 5 TDs. Beasley runs good sharp routes and is sure handed, but with a career yards per catch average hovering around 10, it’s obvious he isn’t much of a playmaker and most of his routes are of the short variety. He’s likely to go undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues but could be a guy to watch on the waiver wire and move into a bigger role if Jason Witten continues down the path to extinction.

TE Jason Witten
(2015 TE Rank - No.12, 5.6 Fpts/G)

Jason Witten turned 34 years old in May, and has lost a step or two, but is still trusted by his quarterback which is an important part of the equation. Tight ends generally do not age well, and while he’s never been the athletic specimen he’s lost most of his effectiveness with the ball in his hands. Surprisingly, Witten has never reached double digit TDs in a season, and he scored only three last year. Still Witten has missed only one game in 13 seasons so he’s been as dependable as they come and still managed 77 catches for 713 yards despite the team’s quarterbacking woes last season. The man knows how to get open, presents a big target, and did not drop a pass last year. He’ll likely continue to be Romo’s first or second look every time he drops back to pass so even if he loses yet another step in 2016, his floor is likely still a fantasy starter at the tight end position, but owners should not reach for him as his ceiling is capped as a low-end TE1.