2016 could be a make or break season for Ryan Tannehill. He hasn’t
played that poorly over the course of his first four years as a
starting quarterback in the league, however he hasn’t been
overly impressive either. He’s shown poor footwork and pocket
presence and has been unable to lead his team into the playoffs
despite the Dolphins being among the “winners of the offseason”
each year. Last season he completed 62% of his passes, accumulating
4,210 yards and 24 touchdowns through the air while tossing 12 interceptions.
His career high in touchdown passes came in 2014 where he threw
27. Tannehill has shown above average mobility during his first
three years in the league but last season only rushed for 141 yards
after a career high 311 rushing yards in 2014. He has consistently
failed to step up in big games which could ultimately be his downfall
if he doesn’t lead the Dolphins to a playoff appearance in
2016. Tannehill has struggled with his deep accuracy in his young
career, but he is coming off his best season in yards per attempt
(7.2). On the plus side, the Dolphins hired former Broncos and Bears
offensive coordinator Adam Gase to be the team’s Head Coach,
and Gase was largely responsible for resurrecting Jay Cutler’s
career last season and orchestrated one of the best offenses in
NFL history with Peyton Manning in Denver. Gase is expected to give
Tannehill more freedom to audible at the line of scrimmage and is
expected to have his team play at an up-tempo pace. Peyton reportedly
worked with Tannelhill this spring in order to help teach him Gase’s
offense, and that can only be viewed as a positive. Further, the
Miami offensive line should see some improvement after using first
round picks at the position during the last two years.
The Denver Broncos matched the offer sheet the Dolphins tendered
to restricted free agent C.J. Anderson, and as a result, Jay Ajayi
remains at the top of the running back depth chart in Miami. The
second-year back out of Boise State was regarded as one of last
season’s top backs in the draft class, but amid rumors of
a bone on bone knee condition, his stock plummeted and he was not
picked until the fifth round. He saw little work behind starter
Lamar Miller gaining only 187 yards on 49 carries after returning
from a rib injury which caused him to start the season on the short-term
IR list. He’s impressed the new coaching staff in OTAs and
minicamps with his ability to “plant and go”, and is
the favorite to be the bell-cow for a staff that likes to have their
running back play all three downs. Ajayi only caught 7 balls last
season and will need to step up in the passing game if he wants
to see the field on third downs, especially after the team used
a third-round pick on Alabama running back Kenyon Drake who looks
best suited to be a receiver out of the backfield. At 6’0”
and 228 pounds, Ajayi is a solid runner who can bounce off tacklers
and drew Marshawn Lynch comparisons as a prospect. His quick feet
and ability to change direction effortlessly combined with said
power gives him a very high ceiling if he manages to overcome his
college fumbling issues and develops into a solid pass blocker.
Ajayi has the potential to be a draft day steal.
The Dolphins used a third-round pick on a running back that was
used as a spell back in college. That’s not as damning when
you consider he played at Alabama and was rotating behind Derek
Henry and T.J. Yeldon, two backs that were taken in Round 2 of their
respective drafts. He averaged 6.42 yards per carry and scored 22
times while a member of the Crimson Tide. At 6’1” and
210 pounds, Drake is built more like a wide receiver than a running
back, but his speed and burst should allow him to be a playmaker.
His selection likely didn’t disappoint Ajayi’s dynasty
league owners as much as some of the more complete backs like Kenneth
Dixon or Davontea Booker, who were selected after Drake, may have.
However, with the team using a relatively high pick on the runner
and Ajayi being far from proven, one cannot discount the possibility
of Drake earning a large role in this backfield if he shows well
in camp. There has been talk of Drake being used to return kicks
for the Dolphins, and if that happens expectations should be lowered
as generally teams prefer not to use a major piece of their offense
on special teams.
Jarvis Landry was drafted in Round 2 by the Dolphins in 2014 and
he has proceeded to catch 195 balls in his first two seasons in
the league. While those who have owned him in PPR leagues have been
thrilled with his production, from a NFL perspective Landry hasn’t
been efficient with those receptions averaging under 10 yards per
catch and scoring only nine times during his first two seasons.
While Landry has shown flashes, the truth is he’s not very fast
or very athletic. His excellent route running and sure hands have
made him a nice security blanket for his young quarterback, but
the team has now used a first-round pick on DeVante Parker and has
traded up in the third to grab Leonte Caroo in the last two years,
which tells you they see Landry as more of a complementary piece
than a true No.1 wide receiver. His new head coach has stated that
he wants to help Landry make more big plays, but that could be easier
said than done and may be a necessity in order to salvage his fantasy
value which has been volume dependent thus far. It’s safe to assume
that if Parker and Carroo show any playmaking ability, Landry’s
targets will decrease.
Miami used a first-round pick in 2014 to draft DeVante Parker out
of Louisville. After suffering a preseason foot injury, Parker was
rendered an afterthought in the offense for most of his rookie season
until injuries to other receivers opened up playing time for him
late in the year. He recorded 22 catches for 445 yards and three
scores over the team’s final six games and showed the ability
that made him a hot commodity in dynasty circles during the NFL
pre and post-draft process. Coach Adam Gase praised Parker’s
skill set once he took the job, and it now looks like the second-year
player could be heading towards a breakout season. At 6’3”
and 210 pounds he’s the biggest wide receiver on the team
among those that should see significant playing time. He should
be a favored red-zone target for Tannehill while also possessing
enough speed to be a field stretcher. Don’t be surprised to
see him lead the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns this season.
Third-round pick Leonte Carroo out of Rutgers has impressed the
team at OTAs and could be in line for a far bigger snap count than
most casual observers would expect from a rookie in what appears
to be a crowded depth chart. Safety Michael Thomas stated that Carroo
reminded him of a faster Anquan Boldin. Off-season puff pieces aside,
Carroo is one of the more under-rated rookies in this draft class
and without some character concerns may have landed at the end of
the first round instead of dropping to the third. With Kenny Stills
being his biggest threat to starting opposite Parker, with Landry
in the slot, Carroo should see the field immediately as a rookie
and could be the team’s most complete pass catcher. He’s
a solid route runner who possess above average speed and a solid
build at 211 pounds at 6 feet tall. Of course no one will mistake
Ryan Tannehill for the 2013 version of Peyton Manning, so expectations
for this passing game and Carroo in particular need to be tempered,
as it’s unlikely that three solid fantasy starting wide receivers
can be supported, but with the talent level at the wide receiver
position may surprise the masses.
2015 was a season that Jordan Cameron would like to forget. Forced
into either taking a paycut or being released, Cameron chose to
take less money and hopefully build back his value in a system where
Julius Thomas was able to earn himself a huge payday after putting
up a career year. Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller also did very
well under Adam Gase in Chicago, giving a glimmer of hope for Cameron
turning his fortunes around. In 2013, Cameron came out of nowhere
to put up an 80-917-7 statline in Cleveland but he’s only managed
59 catches in the two seasons since. Last season in Miami, he only
managed 35 catches for 386 yards and 3 touchdowns. With Gase apparently
liking him and calling the tight end position “one of the strengths”
of his offense, Cameron could be an interesting late-round flier
for fantasy teams using a TEBC approach.
