Tom Brady is coming off one of his better statistical seasons throwing
for 4,770 yards with 36 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. By now anyone
playing fantasy football is probably well aware of the “Deflate-Gate”
drama and the resulting four game suspension. Brady will be sitting
the first four weeks, causing his draft stock to plummet which potentially
makes him a value. Fantasy owners should be able to find adequate
replacements for the first month of the season before bye week crunches
hit. The 38 year-old veteran may be facing his football mortality
but he’s adapted his style making him one of the highest floor,
yet highest ceiling options at the position. His deep passing accuracy
has declined in recent seasons but he’s mastered the short passing
game where he takes advantage of Julian Edelman’s and Rob Gronkowski’s
run after the catch abilities. This season he’ll welcome back a
healthy Dion Lewis and also add hulking tight end Martellus Bennett
into the mix which will leave opposing defense having to “pick their
poison” making the Patriots’ offense even more dangerous. Fantasy
owners are also likely well aware of the Patriots “scorched earth”
mentality when they feel like they’ve been wronged by the league,
so don’t expect Brady to remove his foot from the pedal even when
the Pats have a big lead late in games. According to FFToday’s Consistency
Calculator, Brady had more “elite” games (10 games over 25 FPts)
than any other fantasy quarterback in 2015.
The Patriots spent a second round pick on Jimmy Garoppolo from Eastern
Illinois in 2014 and that pick may pay dividends during Brady’s
suspension if he can keep them afloat during the first month of
the season. Unfortunately for him, the team opens the season facing
some of the league’s better defenses - Arizona, Miami, Houston
and Buffalo. Garoppolo has no significant regular season experience
but will be spending his third offseason with the team and will
likely split reps with Brady during training camp, so he should
be prepared. He also gets the same benefit of the weapons that Tom
Brady will be supported by which should help him overcome his inexperience.
The offensive philosophy shouldn’t change much, if at all,
and Garoppolo has the athleticism and quick release to be successful
in that system. If you draft Brady, adding Garoppolo in later rounds
wouldn’t be a terrible idea, although you may want to also
add another capable backup and play the matchups.
Dion Lewis beat out a number of contenders last training camp to
emerge with the “Vereen role” in the Patriots’ offense. Lewis excelled
as the pass catcher out of the backfield, but also proved to be
far more explosive and a better inside runner than Shane Vereen
ever was. His versatility led to him earning an even bigger role
in the offense, seeing 64% of the snaps before going down with an
ACL tear in Week 9, and he parlayed his effort into being a top
5 running back through that point of the season. The team liked
what they saw so much that he was offered a two-year extension before
the injury. Lewis looked unstoppable at times and drew Barry Sanders
comparisons in the media and fantasy football message boards. He’s
much more valuable in PPR leagues than Non-PPR leagues but he’s
still a factor even if his catches are ignored, as he was on a 16
game pace of nearly 1,500 total yards and 10 combined touchdowns
before his knee buckled. Staying healthy has been a major issue
for the 26 year-old throughout his career, so he does come with
risk. His injury history could make him a draft day bargain so don’t
let him slip past Round 5 if he starts sliding.
LeGarrette Blount has long been a Bill Belichick favorite, and with
the big running back scoring 23 touchdowns in his 30 games with
the Patriots, it’s not difficult to see why. Blount is a no
nonsense straight ahead runner with fairly decent long speed for
his size. For the first time since he’s been a Patriot, there
are no other candidates for the “big back” role in the
offense with only Lewis, James White, Brandon Bolden and Donald
Brown in serious contention for roster spots. He will be competing
with Lewis for snaps on offense but should see close to double-digit
touchdowns and should grind out yards to close out games. Blount
has averaged 4.5 yards per carry during his three seasons in New
England.
Injury Risk is High: Julian Edelman has
played one full season (2013) in his seven-year career.
Julian Edelman was only able to play in nine regular season games
last year before breaking his foot, but caught 61 passes for 692
yards and 7 touchdowns. His surgically repaired foot is said to
be doing fine and while the team may be cautious with him during
training camp, the start of the season is not considered to be in
danger. Edelman has been Tom Brady’s security blanket since Wes
Welker departed, due to his route running, sure hands and toughness
over the middle. The former college quarterback is the master of
taking the short pass in the flat and turning up field quickly to
gain extra yards, a staple play in this offense that has become
almost indefensible. With the offense not expected to change much
during Brady’s early season absence, Edelman should still be the
focal point of the quick passing game. Edelman’s seven touchdowns
last season were a career high so fantasy owners should be careful
not to over project based on those TDs coming in only nine games.
They should however feel free to pencil Edelman in for the 90-plus
catches barring injury.
Danny Amedola was signed by the Patriots immediately following Wes
Welker’s signing with the Denver Broncos and many fantasy
footballers not only saw Amendola as a replacement for Welker but
also felt that he was a younger and faster version of the man known
as “the slot machine”. Unfortunately for Amendola, he
suffered a serious tear of the groin during the opening week of
2013 and was never able to unseat Julian Edelman for that important
slot role. Amendola offers a similar skill set to Edelman so the
team would likely prefer another wide receiver to step up and claim
a starting role but as of right now it looks like Amendola should
get first crack. Amendola has a reputation of being “injury
prone” which generally is an unfair label, but it’s
hard to argue against him having earned it. Fantasy owners are likely
better off looking elsewhere, as Amendola’s upside is capped
if he’s not a high volume pass catcher since he lacks big
play ability. A large target number is not very likely being the
fourth option in the passing game (at best) behind Edelman, Rob
Gronkowski and Dion Lewis.
If fantasy owners want to roll the dice and grab a piece of this
high powered offense, veteran Chris Hogan and rookie Malcom Mitchell
are likely their best bets. The Patriots signed restricted free
agent Hogan to a three-year $12M contract this offseason which the
Bills declined to match which could mean they have big plans for
the player once nicknamed “7-11” by Reggie Bush in Miami
because he was always open. At 6’1” and 220 pounds he’s
a big target with deceptive speed and would bring more to the table
lining up outside than Danny Amendola.
While rookie wide receivers have generally struggled in the Patriots
complex offense, Mitchell was said to be “showing early aptitude”
per ESPN’s Mike Reiss following minicamp. The rookie out of
Georgia had a productive SEC career and shined at the Combine. Fantasy
owners should pay attention to Hogan and Mitchell during the preseason
and be ready to take a late round flier if there are any signs of
life.
TE Rob
Gronkowski (2015 TE Rank – No.1, 12.2 FPts/G)
Rob Gronkowski has become Tom Brady’s most trusted and most
effective weapon in the passing game, and is clearly the consensus
top-ranked fantasy tight end. Gronk is one of the true difference
makers in fantasy football based on his value relative to the other
players at his position and will be chosen in the first round or
early second round in almost all fantasy football drafts. In 15
games last season he put up a 72-1176-11 stat line and other than
being an injury risk due to his physical style, he’s about
as safe as any player that one will be deciding upon on draft day.
Martellus Bennett wore out his welcome with John Fox and the Chicago
Bears last year, and was signed by the Patriots this off-season
to add yet another matchup nightmare to its passing attack. At 6’6”
and 273 pounds, Bennett is a beast of a man that will add the dual
tight end element in New England that has been missing since Aaron
Hernandez was arrested. When he lines up with Gronkowski on the
field, opposing defenses will likely be quaking as both are excellent
blockers that can get a running game going and even better receivers.
Bennett has been considered somewhat of a malcontent in Dallas and
then in Chicago but is said to be buying into the Patriot culture
and has earned Brady’s trust. While Gronkowski’s presence
does limit his upside to some extent, Bennett is more than capable
of returning TE1 numbers even as his own team’s TE2.
