The people who think paying attention to strength of schedule is a waste have valid reasoning. There is a lot of turnover in the NFL, so teams that were bad last year could be great this year, and vice versa. With so much unpredictability, why bother wasting energy on it?

Those who think it’s a waste may be right, but the first group has valid reasons as well. Fantasy football is all about projecting how players are going to do from week to week, and if you have some sort of clue as to how they will match up with certain teams during the season, that could give you an advantage.

If you are a believer in paying attention to strength of schedule, this breakdown is for you. Your ultimate goal in any fantasy league is to have a successful playoff run. Looking at schedules for weeks 14 through 16 can give an owner a chance setting up his or her team for success by drafting players with easy playoff matchups. On the flip side, owners can at least make an attempt to avoid playoff disaster by skipping players with terrible playoff schedules.

Personally, I would never move a player way up or way down my board based on playoff strength of schedule. I would, however, consider it as a great tiebreaker if I were torn over two otherwise equally talented players.

In Part One of this Playoff Schedule Analysis, I will focus on the players that currently project to have easy matchups at playoff time.

Note: All mentions of ADP are based on current information on fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers, GB – vs. Atlanta, at Buffalo, at Tampa Bay

Last season, Atlanta and Tampa Bay were two of the worst in the NFL when it came to allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks, and losing Darrelle Revis isn’t making the Bucs pass defense any better. As for the Bills, they do have Stephon Gilmore manning a corner position, but the loss of Kiko Alonso will definitely hurt them in coverage. The only real fear for Aaron Rodgers’ owners would be that it’s a December game in Buffalo, so weather could be a factor.

In my consistency article, I made a case for Drew Brees as the safest elite quarterback to draft, but the easy playoff schedule makes it tempting to call Rodgers’ the top quarterback to own. Let’s face it; you probably wouldn’t be sad about owning any of the big three.

Stafford has two home games during playoff time.

Matthew Stafford, DET – vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota, at Chicago

This one is a little tricky to definitely call easy because playing at Chicago can be a big challenge. Not impossible though, as Matthew Stafford did score at least 15 fantasy points in both meetings last season. Even with the potential difficulty of the Bears in week 16, it’s hard to ignore the ease that should come with home dates against Tampa Bay and Minnesota in weeks 14 and 15. The theory here is if you have Stafford, he has a chance to single-handedly carry you through to championship weekend, and in a game of weekly head-to-head, giving yourself a chance to play for the title is all you can really ask for.

The easy playoff schedule makes Stafford a solid mid-round pick. Where you’d have to take him, round 5 or 6 at the latest, you want a guy you can leave in your lineup without fear. While Stafford has shown he has bad weeks in him, those bad weeks shouldn’t come at playoff time when you need him most.

Nick Foles, PHI – vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Washington

I almost didn’t include Nick Foles on this list because of Seattle. However, I couldn’t overlook how enticing the Dallas and Washington games would be in the final two playoff weeks. The absolute best-case scenario for a Foles owner would be to get a first-round bye in their playoffs to avoid week 14 altogether. Since you probably got Foles in either round six or seven, your team will hopefully be strong enough at other positions to weather the storm of a terrible week 14 matchup if you do have to play that week. Survive to week 15, and you’re golden at quarterback.

Maybe at your draft you can nonchalantly drop the note about Foles facing Seattle in a playoff week to scare other owners away, allowing you get him a little later than expected. Assuming your friends aren’t dumb and that doesn’t work, take him in round six or seven knowing if you make the playoffs, there’s a bright light at the end of the playoff tunnel as you stare down the trouble brewing in week 14.

RUNNING BACK

Trent Richardson/Ahmad Bradshaw, IND – at Cleveland, vs. Houston, at Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys were awful against the run last season, and after watching their first preseason game, it doesn’t look like it has gotten any better. It seems like even Trent Richardson could figure out how to run though a hole against that defense. Cleveland and Houston were about middle of the pack when it comes to run-stopping last season. Two mediocre opponents plus one extremely easy title week is very appealing.

If you have the guts to give Richardson another chance, or take Ahmad Bradshaw in hopes that he takes away Richardson’s job, you might end up reaping huge rewards come playoff time.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams, NYG – at Tennessee, vs. Washington, at St. Louis

All three of these teams were awful at stopping the run in the 2013 season, and the Giants get them all in the playoffs in 2014? That sounds good to me. According to FFToday’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool, the Titans and Redskins allowed over 20 percent more fantasy points to running backs than the average defense. The Rams slid in close behind at 16.7 percent above average. That’s not good.

I like Rashad Jennings a lot as a fifth-round pick, and the Andre Williams hype train has been picking up steam since the Hall of Fame Game. Whichever one of these guys is the lead horse for the Giants come playoff time will be huge for their owners, so keep that in the back of your mind when you think about drafting one (or both) of them.

Chris Johnson/Chris Ivory, NYJ – at Minnesota, at Tennessee, New England

I’ve already established Tennessee was bad against the run in 2013. The Vikings and Patriots were below average as well. Owning a running back in a run-heavy offense against teams that are not great against the run is a great recipe for playoff success.

Chris Johnson seems like a borderline steal in round six. People have grown to hate him as a fantasy back, even though he managed to finish eighth at the position last season in standard scoring leagues. Now he’s in a run-heavy offense with an easy playoff schedule. If you still refuse to let Johnson into your life, Chris Ivory is going so late in fantasy drafts, he’s basically free. Who knows, even if Chris Johnson is the man, the Jets might run enough against these poor rush defenses to make both useful during the playoff weeks.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Jarrett Boykin, GB – vs. Atlanta, at Buffalo, at Tampa Bay

Surprise! The Packers’ easy playoff schedule for quarterbacks also means there’s an easy playoff schedule for wide receivers. According to the Strength of Schedule tool, none of Green Bay’s fantasy playoff opponents were particularly terrible against wide receivers last season, but they were all below average.

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both being drafted as WR1 types, while Boykin is being drafted in sleeper territory. With the combination of having Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback and not so good defense in the playoff weeks, I’d love any of these three where they are currently being taken in drafts (Nelson in round two, Cobb in round three, Boykin in round 11).

Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, DET – vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota, at Chicago

Here’s a terrifying thought: Calvin Johnson with an easy playoff schedule. None of these teams should strike fear into the hearts of Lions wide receiver owners. The Strength of Schedule tool shows Tampa Bay and Chicago were below average against wide outs last season, while the Vikings were in the bottom two in terms of fantasy points allowed.

It seems like no matter what angle you look, Calvin Johnson is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy. He may not finish at the top for points on the season, but his owners will have a good chance at finishing on top should they reach the playoffs. Meanwhile, Golden Tate is beginning to look like a pretty solid selection in the middle rounds, especially now that we know he has a light playoff schedule.

Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams, DAL – at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Indianapolis

There’s a reason the Vikings could only be referred to as “bottom two” in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers: the worst of the worst last year was the Philadelphia Eagles. The potential for a monster week 15 from all their wide receivers, plus not-so-scary weeks 14 and 16, make the Cowboys’ duo important for their owners who make the playoffs.

I like Dez Bryant (1.11) and Terrance Williams (7.08) a lot at their current draft slots, and their relatively easy playoff schedule makes them all the more likable.

TIGHT END

Jared Cook, STL – at Washington, vs. Arizona, vs. NY Giants

It is ridiculous how bad the Cardinals were against tight ends last season. They allowed 65.3 percent more fantasy points to tight ends than the average defense. The Redskins and Giants were below average, so in theory, any tight end with this playoff schedule could come up huge.

The only problem is the tight end with that schedule is the always-disappointing Jared Cook. It seems like every season Cook is a popular breakout pick, but it never happens. The popularity might finally be gone, though, because he’s currently going undrafted. On the bright side, that means you’ll probably be able to pick him up from waivers during the season. If you’re considering the tight-end-by-committee approach this year, Cook might be the perfect option come playoff time.

Dennis Pitta/Owen Daniels, BAL – at Miami, vs. Jacksonville, at Houston

The Texans were right about average at stopping tight ends last season, and that makes them the hardest group of the bunch. Miami was weak at stopping tight ends last year, and the Jaguars were among the worst. It remains to be seen how much Daniels will contribute with Pitta in front of him on the depth chart, but if the Ravens do plan a two-tight-end attack, the fantasy playoffs are right around the time that attack will be at its best.

Pitta is currently the eighth tight end off the board in fantasy drafts. Having upside at the position could make or break your playoff run, so if you don’t wind up with one of the elites at the position, setting yourself up for a strong playoff run in the middle rounds can’t hurt. Daniels will probably go undrafted, but like Jared Cook, he could also potentially be a streaming option at playoff time if that’s your strategy.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen, IND – at Cleveland, vs. Houston, at Dallas

Cleveland and Houston were both average against tight ends, while Dallas was bad. Neither Fleener nor Allen has gained any steam in the fantasy ranks thus far this summer, but it seems like at least one of them could gain relevance during the season, given the Colts’ quarterback and offense in general.

If one or both does become a major part of what Indianapolis is doing, throw them into the potential streaming mix with Cook and Daniels. If this jumble of tight ends turns out to be great streaming options, the combination Daniels in week 14, Cook in week 15, and Fleener or Allen in week 16 could turn out to be playoff gold.

DEFENSE

Tennessee Titans – vs. NY Giants, vs. NY Jets, at Jacksonville

Based on 2013, this is a dream scenario for a fantasy defense. The Giants were easily the friendliest offense when it came to allowing fantasy defenses to put up points. The Jets were terrible as well. Would you believe that of these three teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars, was actually the toughest matchup for fantasy defenses?

The Titans are currently going undrafted. If you are someone who waits until round the last two rounds to get your fantasy defense, you will most likely spend your season using the waiver wire to fill the slot. If the Giants, Jets and Jaguars all continue to live up to their status as easy-to-score-on offenses, I’d make sure the Titans were on my roster weeks in advance of the playoff,s just to make sure I’m the one who benefits from their cake fantasy schedule.

Baltimore Ravens – at Miami, vs. Jacksonville, at Houston

If the Titans’ playoff schedule didn’t exist, it’s the Ravens’ schedule I would be gushing over. Miami may be a tough matchup in week 14, depending on Ryan Tannehill’s progression, but the Dolphins were among the better matchups for fantasy defenses last season. There is no reason to believe Jacksonville will be any better than last season. By the end of 2014, Houston could be a feeding ground for fantasy points for any defense that gets to match up with them.

The Ravens also are going undrafted, but I wouldn’t necessarily depend on them remaining undrafted or on the waiver wire for too long. Among casual fans, they are likely still associated with having a strong defense. If you are looking to take advantage of their playoff schedule, you might have to make them the defense you take in your draft.

New England Patriots – at San Diego, vs. Miami, at NY Jets

The Patriots make it here purely for their matchups in weeks 15 and 16. The Chargers were difficult for fantasy defenses last season, but the Dolphins and Jets after that should make the Patriots worth holding onto.

New England is the sixth defense being taken in fantasy drafts, so people are definitely drafting them with the intention of using them all season. If that drafter is you, you should be all set for your semifinal and championship games, but I’d line up another defense to use in week 14.

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