Here in part two, this is more about players to avoid if difficult scheduling concerns you. For my money, spotting which players have a potentially difficult playoff schedule might be more important information than which players might have it easy. The last thing I’d want is to get stuck with a dud of a game at the most important time of the season.

Like I said in part one, I wouldn’t necessarily move a player way up or way down my draft board solely based on their playoff schedule difficulty, but it does make a nice tiebreaker.

Note: All mentions of ADP are based on current information on fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

QUARTERBACK

Ryan threw 2 TDs in two games against NO last season.

Matt Ryan, ATL – at Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at New Orleans

The Packers aren’t a terrible matchup, but things go south quickly with games against the Steelers and Saints. Pittsburgh is always tough on defense, and the Saints’ strong pass defense has only gotten stronger since last season with the addition of Jairus Byrd. There’s a decent chance that anyone who believes in a Matt Ryan bounce-back year will be happy most of the year but then face serious trouble when playoff time arrives.

It’s tough to see a clear difference between most of the quarterbacks going in the seventh through 10th rounds of fantasy drafts, so I’d say a rocky playoff schedule is a decent enough reason to slide Matt Ryan to the back of the pack of players going in that range.

Carson Palmer, ARI – vs. Kansas City, at St. Louis, at Seattle

Carson Palmer is a semi-popular late-round pick given his success in the second half of last season and the emergence of Michael Floyd as a 1B to Larry Fitzgerald’s 1A. Seeing this series of games to close out the fantasy season makes him downright terrifying. Kansas City had the best fantasy defense last season, yet it turns out the Chiefs are the easiest matchup for quarterbacks in this grouping of opponents. Road games with the Rams and Seahawks are disasters waiting to happen.

At the point you are drafting Palmer, you already know not to expect a plug-and-play type of guy. If you do draft him late, make sure you do it with zero expectation of using him if you make the playoffs.

Johnny Manziel, CLE – vs. Indianapolis, vs. Cincinnati, at Carolina

You know people are aching for some Johnny Football in their lives when he’s coming off the board 18th at quarterback despite not even winning the starting job yet. The Colts in Week 14 were of average difficulty last season, while the Bengals and Panthers had two of the toughest defenses in the league last year. A quarterback-- especially a rookie against those defenses in the biggest games of the season-- is a scary thought.

It’s always fun to get the next big thing in fantasy, especially when it’s a guy like Manziel. I would let someone else be the one to draft him, because A) not every rookie can be like Newton, Luck, Griffin or Wilson, and B) this playoff schedule is not fun.

RUNNING BACK

Ben Tate/Terrance West, CLE – vs. Indianapolis, vs. Cincinnati, at Carolina

Poor Cleveland has it rough at fantasy playoff time. As tough as each of these teams are on quarterbacks, they are even tougher against running backs. The Colts were above average at run-stopping last season. The Bengals and Panthers were both in the mix with the Seahawks when it came to most difficult defenses for fantasy running backs in the entire league. The thought of having to use a running back against this playoff schedule does not appeal to me.

At this moment, Ben Tate is being drafted in the early sixth round, and Terrance West is being drafted in the early eighth round. They each have an opportunity to out-perform their draft slots in season-long fantasy numbers if one proves to be the workhorse, but when playoff time comes, it might not matter which one of them has taken the reins as the Browns’ starting running back. The combination of backfield uncertainty and playoff schedule makes it tough for me to draft either player.

Montee Ball/Ronnie Hillman, DEN – vs. Buffalo, at San Diego, at Cincinnati

This schedule gets progressively more difficult as the playoffs move along. The Bills were barely above average at holding down fantasy running back scoring last season, while San Diego was a little tougher. As I mentioned previously, the Bengals were among the toughest defenses in the league last season. It’s possible this all gets canceled out by being the running back in a Peyton Manning-led offense, but that seems like a lot to ask of these young backs.

Montee Ball is currently going at the top of the second round, while people who either don’t believe in Ball or are looking for a handcuff are grabbing Ronnie Hillman near the end of the 13th . I think Ball might be going a little high due to his unknown ability not being factored into his price. Now with the knowledge that his playoff schedule is tough, I’d be having some reservations about drafting him as high as you’d need to if you want to secure his services.

Marshawn Lynch/Christine Michael, SEA - at Philadelphia, vs. San Francisco, at Arizona

The Seahawks have the same issue as their Super Bowl opponent: each playoff week is harder than the last. All three of these teams were above average at stopping running backs in 2013. Last season, Marshawn Lynch actually put up decent numbers against these NFC West opponents but almost purely because he got a high quantity of carries. If the Seahawks run any less (or any less successfully) this season, this set of three games could quickly become a disaster.

Lynch is currently going in the late first round of fantasy drafts. I personally didn't like him that early anyway, and I like him even less now that I've seen what he'll face in the playoffs. Christine Michael is the popular handcuff to Lynch, but there's a decent chance he splits time with Robert Turbin if there happens to be an injury to Lynch. In the case of a committee backfield, it would be difficult to imagine anyone in the Seattle backfield providing useful numbers in the playoffs.

WIDE RECEIVER

Tavon Austin/Kenny Britt, STL - at Washington, vs. Arizona, vs. NY Giants

After starting the playoffs with a plus matchup in week 14, things go downhill for Rams wide outs in weeks 15 and 16. The Cardinals and Giants each allowed almost 20 percent less FPts/G to wide receivers than the average team. Any breakout receivers that may come from the Rams could be useful in Week 14 but will probably head straight for the fantasy bench in the weeks that matter most.

Tavon Austin (late round nine) and Kenny Britt (late round 11) are both being selected as backups and/or late-round fliers, so the schedule probably doesn't affect your decision-making on draft day. Just remember as the season goes along that even if they do provide help in-season, you might be looking another direction come playoff time.

Josh Gordon/Miles Austin, CLE - vs. Indianapolis, vs. Cincinnati, at Carolina

Browns receivers also have a plus matchup in Week 14 followed by a difficult slate for weeks 15 and 16. The Bengals were above average against receivers last season, and the Panthers were the third-toughest in the league (behind Tennessee and Seattle).

Josh Gordon is currently going in the 10th round as owners await his appeal results. His ADP will understandably skyrocket if it turns out he will play at all this year, but the troublesome combo of a probable late start along with a tough finish makes it difficult to draft him among the elites at the position. Miles Austin is going as a late-round flier in round 13, so it's unlikely he'll be a playoff factor anyway, unless he returns to his old form.

Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd, ARI - vs. Kansas City, at St. Louis, vs. Seattle

The pick here is almost entirely based on the Week 16 showdown with the Seahawks. The Chiefs and Rams were both slightly below average against fantasy wide receivers last season, making weeks 14 and 15 not as scary for this duo. Seattle, on the other hand, had the toughest defense in the league against wide receivers last season. Larry Fitzgerald had 35 total yards in two games against the Seahawks last year, and Michael Floyd had 89. Not good.

Fitzgerald is getting snatched up in the fourth round of fantasy drafts, while Floyd is going in the middle of the fifth. It’s already asking a lot for either of them to live up to their draft status when they are playing in the NFC West with Carson Palmer at quarterback, all while splitting targets with each other. It’s asking even more for them to help you win a fantasy championship with that Seattle matchup.

TIGHT END

Jason Witten, DAL – at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Indianapolis

The Bears aren’t a tough tight end matchup, but the Eagles and Colts both proved to be difficult last season. The Eagles gave up 11 percent less fantasy points than the average and the Colts gave up 20 percent less. Only three teams were tougher on tight ends last season than Indianapolis.

Jason Witten can be found in the late sixth round of fantasy drafts at the moment. If you’re taking a tight end that early, you’re planning to start him week-in and week-out. Being forced to start Witten in weeks 15 and 16 seems like trouble. I don’t think I’d adjust my tight end rankings based on his playoff schedule, but I wouldn’t be excited to use him if I ended up making it that far.

Martellus Bennett, CHI – vs. Dallas, vs. New Orleans, vs. Detroit

In Week 14, the Bears get an easy tight end opponent in the Cowboys. After that, it gets ugly. The Saints were one of the more difficult defenses for tight ends last season, and the Lions were actually the toughest in the entire league. If these games turn into shootouts because of the offenses the Bears will have to keep up with, Bennett could get by, but Jay Cutler could also be forced to look elsewhere because of how tough the Saints and Lions are against tight ends.

“The Black Unicorn” is the 13th tight end coming off the board, so right around fringe starter territory. That might actually be the perfect place for him: fringe starter with the idea of streaming him. I like him a lot if you go the late- round tight end route, but don’t sit on your hands and plug-and-play him, especially when it’s playoff time.

John Carlson/Troy Niklas/Rob Housler, ARI – vs. Kansas City, at St. Louis, vs. Seattle
David Ausberry/Mychal Rivera, OAK – vs. San Francisco, at Kansas City, vs. Buffalo

How difficult is this grouping of opponents? The Seahawks and 49ers were the easiest opponents for fantasy tight ends of all the teams listed here. None of the listed Cardinal or Raider tight ends are currently being considered for fantasy purposes, so let this just serve as a warning: don’t plan on including any of them in your fantasy playoff plans. Let them help you in the regular season if any of them prove to have streaming value, but look elsewhere for streaming in weeks 14-16.

DEFENSE

Seattle Seahawks – at Philadelphia, vs. San Francisco, at Arizona

Last season, the Eagles were actually a plus opponent for fantasy defenses over the course of the season, but a full season of Nick Foles leading the Chip Kelly offense should change that. Only four offenses were tougher to score fantasy points on than the 49ers, and the Cardinals proved to be stingy by allowing a below average number of fantasy points to defenses.

This is the danger in taking the Seattle defense in the middle of the eighth round of fantasy drafts: you feel like you have to use it if you take it that early, but it’s really hard to believe it’ll be your best option in the weeks you need it most. I would never promote taking a defense before the end of a draft, and this just further supports letting someone else take the Seahawks in the middle rounds.

San Francisco 49ers – at Oakland, at Seattle, vs. San Diego

The Raiders in Week 14 is a positive matchup, but from there it gets ugly fast. The Seahawks’ and Chargers’ offenses were both terrible matchups for fantasy defenses in 2013. Seattle allowed 18.5 percent below average and San Diego tied for sixth-fewest fantasy points allowed with the New Orleans Saints at 23 percent below average. I wouldn’t be excited about starting any defenses against those two teams.

Just like taking Seattle in the eighth, taking the San Francisco defense in late round nine is a dangerous tactic. Again, taking a defense that early means you are dead set on using it weekly without a second thought. Do you really want to spend a pick that early on a defense you probably can’t use in your championship weeks?

Cincinnati Bengals – vs. Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, vs. Denver

Seeing the Broncos on the schedule for championship week has to be terrifying for anyone looking to invest in the Bengals’ defense. The Steelers aren’t exactly the greatest matchup either. At least owners of the Cincinnati defense could roll it out against the Browns, a team that will probably be led by a rookie quarterback at that point.

The Bengals defense is the eighth defense being drafted right now, going late in the 12th round. I’m sure it will have a lot of fine weeks to keep owners happy, but with that aforementioned Denver game staring you in the face, be prepared to have another defense lined up if you have championship dreams. You don’t want to rely on a defense going against the Broncos to help you win the most important game of the year.

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