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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Risers & Fallers - Year in Review
12/17/14

Since we have reached Week 16, the final week of the season for the majority of fantasy leagues, we have decided here at FFToday that a standard Risers and Fallers won’t do much good for you. With this in mind, this article will instead act as a season wrap-up, evaluating some common preseason draft strategies and awarding a Riser and Faller of the Year at each position.

Before I get started, I just want to take a moment to thank you for reading, whether this is your first time reading or if you have read every week. I have enjoyed interacting with some of you via e-mail throughout the season, and I hope I have made at least a somewhat positive impact on your fantasy seasons. Good luck in your championship games if you were lucky to make it so far!

Rising Draft Strategies

“Stars and Scrubs”

This is an auction strategy that has worked out great for many this season. If you don’t know auction or the strategy itself, “stars and scrubs” entails spending a huge chunk of your budget on a few studs, then filling out the rest of your roster with whatever cheap players you can find. Sure, some “stars” have been less successful than desired this season, but in many cases the top players in the preseason have come through for their owners.

The main reason this strategy was successful in 2014 was the lack of success from the middle-tier players. If you don’t buy many stars, your auction roster ends up filling with many mid-range players you’d find in the third through sixth rounds of snake drafts. As you no doubt have noticed, many of the players picked in that range have not had a whole lot of success in this season. Unless you swung and missed at every star in which you bid, chances are you had, at worst, a solid 2014 season.

“Zero RB” and “Zero WR”

Here’s the thing about these two strategies: I think they were both paths to success in 2014. As a refresher, “Zero RB” is the process of ignoring running back all together in the first four to five rounds, loading up on wide receivers and a maybe a top tight end. “Zero WR” means you go all in on drafting running backs for the first four to five rounds.

“Zero RB” worked because there ended up being a huge lack of depth at running back overall. You could actually get away with rolling out highly questionable players at the position and still find success if you had a strong set of pass catchers. On the other hand, “Zero WR” worked for the same reason (believe it or not). If you loaded up early on running backs, there’s a good chance you came away with two or three of the few strong running backs in the league. Having two or three great running backs in a season like this with so few great players would give owners a huge advantage.

The key to using either strategy (if you desired) was allowing your league to decide which one you used. If your league is leaning toward one, you had to have the ability to switch to the other.

Falling Draft Strategies

Avoid Rookie Wide Receivers

Confession: This is probably the No. 1 thing I did wrong in my drafts this year. Rookie wide receivers have historically been relatively disappointing in fantasy terms. Despite that, people consistently keep on drafting them way too early in fantasy drafts. It must be the exciting new names. Usually there are some breakout rookie wide outs, but they never seem to be the players we expect.

Well, this year taking rookie wide receivers has worked out great. Kelvin Benjamin has been a stud all year. Sammy Watkins had some monster games before slowing down recently. Mike Evans is a touchdown machine. Odell Beckham Jr. suddenly looks like one of the best receivers in the entire league. It’s possible that this crop of rookie wide receivers is a just a uniquely special group or an indication that college players are coming out more pro-ready than ever.

Take a Top QB Early

People who drafted a top quarterback early on might be in disagreement here. Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning have had great years, Drew Brees has come on strong down the stretch, and Andrew Luck has been the most consistent player in fantasy in 2014. The main problem with taking an early quarterback isn’t about the top guys necessarily being bad, it’s about missing out on a top player at another position when strong quarterback options can be found later.

If you visit the Consistency Calculator Tool here at FFToday, you can see that 18 quarterbacks have put up a No. 1 performance in at least 50 percent of their games. Twenty-four have done it in at least 40 percent of their games. Thirty-eight quarterbacks have done it at least once. With so many quarterbacks hitting fantasy starter levels in leagues that only start one, it doesn’t make sense to hurt your team at another position just to feel a little more secure at a position where you only start one player.

Risers of the Year

QB: Ryan Tannehill, MIA
If you view 12-team ADP information here on FFToday, you’ll find 18 quarterbacks were being drafted, but none of them were Ryan Tannehill. Through 15 weeks, Tannehill is the No. 11 quarterback in FFToday default scoring. He started slow, as he was featured in the “Falling” section of this article in Week 3, but since that time he has been a strong fantasy option.

RB: Justin Forsett, BAL
Many of the top running backs in fantasy this year are all top picks. Each of the top seven running backs through 15 weeks was drafted before the middle of round 3. Then there’s Justin Forsett. In 12-team ADP, 54 running backs were being drafted, and none of them were the Ravens running back. Bernard Pierce was the popular second back to pick after Ray Rice (back when we thought he’d return), but it was Forsett who took the job in Week 1 and never looked back.

WR: Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG
Beckham missed the first four games with an injury, and took a few games and a Victor Cruz injury to get going, but once he got going he has been incredible. He is tied with Antonio Brown for most standard fantasy points per game at wide receiver this season, meaning he has been better than Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. In the last five games, he has been the best. Congratulations to anyone who had the pleasure of picking him up off waivers in October.

TE: Antonio Gates, SD
This was supposed to be the year that Ladarius Green took over as the Charger tight end to own in fantasy football. Green was the 13th tight end of the board in fantasy drafts this summer, with Gates going 15th. Gates decided he wasn’t ready to pass the torch just yet. Now the No. 4 tight end in fantasy, Gates has proved he isn’t finished. In a year where there were very few sturdy options at the position, the man who used to be considered the dominant player at tight end has given his owners a dependable weekly option all year.

Colin Kaepernick

Faller of the Year: Colin Kaepernick has thrown for 200 yards or less in four out of his last five games.


Fallers of the Year

QB: Colin Kaepernick, SF
The 12th quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts this summer was the 49ers signal caller. He was expected to be somewhat consistent starter at the position, going 12th, but Kaepernick has not delivered. He currently sits at 24th at the position in fantasy points per game, and according to the Consistency Tool, he has only provided a No. 1 performance 28.57 percent of the time he’s played this season. That’s worse than guys like Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Teddy Bridgewater. Not good.

RB: Zac Stacy, STL
Zac Stacy provided us with a valuable lesson in drafting a player almost completely based on his situation. I don’t remember anyone selling Stacy on his unique talents, but solely based on his supposed handle on the starting job. After going in the early third round of fantasy drafts, Stacy was a drop by early October because he lost the job. (Doug Martin was a strong consideration for this slot, but he’s actually shown signs of life late in the season.)

WR: Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
I don’t remember seeing a more popular breakout pick than Cordarrelle Patterson in the 2014 preseason. The math was there: A talented player who showed flashes as a rookie ready to come into his own as an NFL sophomore. He had many believers, as his ADP in early September was 12th at wide receiver (late third round). Patterson is currently tied for 86th in fantasy points per game at the wide receiver position.

TE: Vernon Davis, SF
In 2014 fantasy drafts, there was a clear top-three at the tight end position. If any tight end in the game had an argument to be at least considered as a top tier player, it was Vernon Davis. He was close, coming off the board in the mid-fifth round, fourth at tight end. In Week 1, he caught four passes for 44 yards with two touchdowns. Since that time, he has not caught more than three passes in a game, reached 40 receiving yards in a game or scored another touchdown.

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