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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Free Agent QBs: Best-Case Scenario
2/24/15

On March 10, free agency begins in the NFL. Once player shuffling around the league begins, our fantasy game will be affected. Player values could change drastically from where they are now.

Over the next couple weeks, I will take a look at some of the most interesting names currently slated to hit free agency at each of the skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). I will pair each player with a team I think would be a best- case scenario for his fantasy value.

The pairings may not all be 100 percent realistic, but not out of the realm of possibility. For example, I don’t know if the Cardinals are actually looking for a quarterback, but I think it’d be a logical move. I also don’t know if Josh McCown would actually join a team as a backup when there’s teams that would let him start, but for the highest fantasy upside, that may be his best move.

Today, I will examine the quarterbacks. I present them in alphabetical order, because this is not a ranking article. A couple possibly obvious teams you may notice that are missing: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, since they will likely draft a quarterback; Tennessee Titans, as I believe they will decide between Zach Mettenberger and a rookie; and Cleveland Browns, simply because I don’t think any of these players’ best cases include dealing with Johnny Manziel drama.

Brian Hoyer – New York Jets

This is a guy that clearly needs to get out of his current situation. Hoyer should have an opportunity to start in 2015, but with the way his time in Cleveland has gone, he should get that opportunity somewhere else. Cue the New York Jets. Of course, any veteran that gets brought to the Jets will come with the announcement that he’ll compete with Geno Smith for the job, but I believe that’s a battle Hoyer can win.

Along with the bonus of getting out of Cleveland, the Jets actually present a situation upgrade. Eric Decker is a good No. 1 wide receiver and assuming he remains on the roster, Percy Harvin is a great playmaker to have around. Second-year player Jace Amaro has the potential to develop into a great tight end and, at worst, a big red zone threat.

That offensive talent would come with Chan Gailey who was able to get three useful fantasy seasons out of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo and could definitely do the same with Hoyer. The Jets may not appear to be a super fantasy situation on the surface, but if Hoyer signs and starts in New York, he could be a guy squarely on the late- round fantasy pick and bye week fill-in radar.

Jake Locker – Arizona Cardinals

Maybe this is crazy for a “best case” article, but hear me out: Jake Locker’s best case is to begin 2015 as a backup quarterback. Locker fell out of favor with the Tennessee Titans, but he is still a relatively young quarterback (he will turn 27 in June) who has shown some flashes of ability. For the good of Locker’s long- term future for real and fantasy purposes, he should sign with a team that matches these two criteria: A) has an entrenched starter for 2015 and B) is not necessarily set at the position after 2015.

The two teams that fit this description best are the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos. The Broncos already have their future lined up with Brock Osweiler, leaving the Cardinals as the ideal place for Locker. Carson Palmer will be the starter, assuming he recovers from his torn ACL (and all signs point toward that). Locker could learn from the veteran and be in line to take over later in 2015 if Palmer’s ACL recovery doesn’t go as planned or he gets another injury. Long term, I can easily envision a scenario where Arizona plays out 2015 with Carson Palmer then lets him go as he enters his late 30s, allowing Locker to take over in 2016.

After seeing the mess that occurred after Palmer went down last year, the Cardinals should be enthused to upgrade their backup situation. And for Locker, the situation might not be ideal for his 2015 fantasy prospects, but for his long-term dynasty prospects, it may just be his best-case scenario.

Ryan Mallett

The Texans have indicated they want to re-sign Mallett.

Ryan Mallett – Houston Texans

Unlike the rest of the quarterbacks in this article, the best move for Ryan Mallett would be to stay right where he is now. Mallett has already been with Coach Bill O’Brien for a season, so he has a head start despite only actually starting two games for the Texans. He got off to a solid start once the reins were handed over in Week 10, but that quickly came to an end with an injury.

Of all the teams looking for a potential starter in free agency, Houston might provide the best situation for a quarterback. Andre Johnson is on the downside of his career, but he’s still very good. DeAndre Hopkins is an ascending talent who could be one of the top 10-15 receivers in the NFL right now, with room to grow. And of course, Arian Foster playing in the backfield is helpful to any quarterback.

With the combination of solid offensive pieces in place and familiarity with the team, there’s no reason for Mallett to look anywhere else. At worst, in fantasy, Mallett should be a weekly starter in two- quarterback leagues. At best, Mallett could find himself a weekly starter in standard- sized leagues for teams that employ the late- round quarterback strategy in their drafts. If Mallett joined any other teams, however, I’m not sure his upside would be nearly as high as in Houston.

Josh McCown – Baltimore Ravens

Here’s another situation where I think the best case is to join a team as a backup. In Josh McCown’s case, it’s the opportunity to reunite with Marc Trestman, the man who revived McCown’s career in Chicago in 2013. This isn’t anything like Jake Locker’s situation, as signing with Baltimore would mean McCown has no clear path to starting. That doesn’t mean this wouldn’t be the best place for him.

McCown finished 30th at quarterback in fantasy points per game in 2014. According to the Consistency Calculator here at FFToday, McCown only put up a QB1 score in three out of 11 games played. These are not stats that make McCown appealing as a fantasy option. Of the NFL teams seeking a quarterback, none of the situations seem significantly better than the Bucs in 2014, meaning 2015 would probably resemble 2014 for McCown if he joined a team currently in need of a starter.

Signing with Baltimore would give McCown fantasy upside he wouldn’t have as a starter in most other places. Joe Flacco has never been injured, but with this being the NFL, that can change with just one hit. If McCown found the field again under the guidance of Trestman, he could find himself back in the fold as a major fantasy player, as he did in 2013 (when he managed to put up QB1 numbers in four out of five starts). On any other team, McCown would likely be a fantasy afterthought.

Mark Sanchez – Buffalo Bills

Within 30 seconds of the news coming out that Rex Ryan was taking the head-coaching job in Buffalo, people started linking the team with Mark Sanchez. As a Bills fan, it would be extremely awkward trying to root for a guy I made fun of to my Jets-fan friends over the years. For Sanchez, though, it really does make a lot of sense.

The best feature about Buffalo is the clear path to the starting job. Just like with Hoyer and the Jets, Sanchez would likely come in with a Rex Ryan proclamation that he will compete with EJ Manuel for the job. At this point, there’s no reason to believe Manuel will win that fight. Once he wins this theoretical quarterback competition, Sanchez would have some decent weapons at his disposal; two most notable being Sammy Watkins, who has star potential, and Robert Woods, a solid possession receiver. And with a defense like Buffalo’s, the weight wouldn’t all be on Sanchez’ shoulders to carry the team.

In 2014, Sanchez was 16th in FPts/G with the Philadelphia Eagles. In 2011, playing under Rex Ryan with the Jets, Sanchez was the 10th- highest scoring quarterback in fantasy. With a couple solid fantasy seasons already under Sanchez’s belt, Buffalo appears to be his best chance in free agency to add more to his resume.