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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Playoff Schedule Analysis: Update
Players with favorable matchups Weeks 14-16
11/19/15

Way back in the preseason, I looked ahead to the fantasy postseason and discussed The Good and The Bad when it came to schedule difficulty.

Now that we’re inching closer to the fantasy playoffs, I want to take a look back at the players I listed in the preseason and see if there are any new names to consider. If you are in line to make the playoffs, use this article to plan ahead. There is still a lot of adding, dropping and trading (depending on your league’s deadline) to be done and while it’s certainly not the only way to win, setting up your team with the easiest schedule possible can only maximize your chances of winning a title.

I will highlight a few players at each position, but there are obviously a lot more names to consider. For a full outlook on the difficulty of upcoming fantasy schedules, you should definitely check out the Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool right here on FFToday.

QUARTERBACK

The Good

Preseason List

Tyrod Taylor, BUF – at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas
Way back in August, Bills quarterback to be named later (it’s hard to believe it was even a contest knowing what we know now about Taylor, EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel) looked to have a series of swiss cheese secondaries lined up. Things change. Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas all have defenses that turned out better than expected in 2015. None of them are impossible to score on, but none of them are necessarily defenses to target at quarterback.

Teddy Bridgewater, MIN – at Arizona, vs. Chicago, vs. NY Giants
The good news: Teddy Bridgewater’s playoff schedule is still looking good, especially for the last couple rounds. In theory, he has a perfect matchup in Week 16 at home against the Giants. The bad news: Bridgewater hasn’t been at all useful in fantasy this year. The Vikings are run and defense oriented, so despite the favorable schedule, you probably aren’t considering Bridgewater in the fantasy playoffs.

Sam Bradford, PHI – vs. Buffalo, vs. Arizona, vs. Washington
It’s currently up in the air who will be starting between Bradford and Mark Sanchez in December, but either way, the playoff schedule isn’t as easy for Philadelphia as it appeared in the preseason. Much like Taylor above, none of the defenses are the ’85 Bears, but at the same time, they are all much stingier than they seemed against the pass back in August. All three defenses rank in the top half against fantasy quarterbacks.

Looking Better Now

Matthew Stafford, DET – at St. Louis, at New Orleans, vs. San Francisco
Skip Week 14 with Matthew Stafford, but if you can have him on your squad in Week 15, get pumped. That’s the week the Lions take on the New Orleans Saints, the worst pass defense in the NFL. A home matchup in Week 16 with the 49ers isn’t nearly as friendly, but also winnable if your trip to getting Stafford in your Week 15 lineup left you being forced to use him in your title game.

Blake Bortles, JAC – vs. Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
Notice a trend? We like quarterbacks playing New Orleans during the biggest weeks of the season. Atlanta is a tough go in Week 15, but Indianapolis is a beatable defense in Week 14. If you can maneuver your roster to own Bortles and Stafford, you could start Bortles in Weeks 14 and 16 and Stafford in Week 15. A Stafford sandwich on Bortles bread will bring home some titles this season.

Alex Smith, KC – vs. San Diego, at Baltimore, vs. Oakland
If you are hoping to come away from this with a quarterback that is both probably available on your waiver wire and has an excellent lineup of fantasy playoff opponents, Alex Smith is the one for you. The Chargers, Ravens and Raiders all bring to the table defenses that Smith should have no trouble circumventing. There is a good chance that if you enter your fantasy playoffs with Smith as your main man your league-mates will chuckle at your expense, but you will be the one having the last laugh.

The Bad

Preseason List

Tony Romo, DAL – at Green Bay, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo
Welcome back Tony Romo! Good luck dealing with one of the tougher playoff schedules in the NFL. Green Bay is tough, especially at home. The Jets have faltered a little as of late, but a defense led by Darrelle Revis will always cause problems. Finally, in Week 16, Romo gets his toughest test of the bunch heading to Buffalo to face an excellent defense in possibly very bad weather conditions.

Colin Kaepernick, SF – at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati, at Detroit
I never imagined when I included Colin Kaepernick in the preseason that this section needed to be adjusted to talk about Blaine Gabbert. Either way, it’s a mixed bag for whomever is quarterbacking in San Francisco. Cleveland in Week 14 and Detroit in Week 16 are both plus matchups, while Cincinnati is one I’d prefer to avoid. In a pinch, I suppose Kaepernick or Gabbert could be used in one of the plus weeks, but I know I wouldn’t feel comfortable going in that direction.

Josh McCown, CLE – vs. San Francisco, at Seattle, at Kansas City
Johnny Manziel was recently named the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season in Cleveland. Whether it’s him or Josh McCown taking the job back, road games with Seattle and Kansas City in Weeks 15 and 16 should give you plenty of reason to look in another direction with your fantasy teams.

Looking Worse Now

Andy Dalton, CIN – vs. Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, at Denver
Andy Dalton got off to a stellar start to this fantasy season, but he has declined in recent weeks. That decline will likely continue into the fantasy playoffs, as he will have a very rough go of it when those magic weeks arrive. Pittsburgh and San Francisco will each provide a tough test (though not must avoids if you have no other choice), then in Week 16, he closes out the fantasy season with a game in Denver against one of the best defenses in the NFL. People who rode Dalton to a fantasy playoff spot will likely have a tough time riding him all the way to a championship.

Peyton Manning/Brock Osweiler, DEN – vs. Oakland, at Pittsburgh, vs. Cincinnati
The Denver quarterback situation was already a surprising mess, and the mess will continue in the most important weeks of the year. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are negative matchups, while Oakland is a bit tougher than we might have expected coming into the year. The Peyton of old was matchup proof, but that is not presently the case. Whether Manning returns or Osweiler is still leading the charge, I recommend not depending on a Broncos’ quarterback in the playoffs.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – at Cincinnati, vs. Denver, at Baltimore
There is good and bad when it comes to Roethlisberger. In Week 16, championship week, he has an incredible matchup with a very beatable Baltimore Ravens defense. The problem: making it to the title game using him in Weeks 14 and 15. A road meeting with the Bengals and any week against the Broncos will make for some tough sledding. If you own Roethlisberger it’s probably tough to bench him despite the matchups, but you’ll need some help from the rest of your roster to win a championship.

RUNNING BACK

The Good

Preseason List

T.J. Yeldon, JAC – vs. Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
Yeldon’s fantasy playoff prospects look just as good now as they looked back in August. Indianapolis, Atlanta and New Orleans all present good matchups for the rookie, with the Saints being the easiest of the bunch. Add in the fact that Yeldon is the clear lead back in Jacksonville and we have a running back who will be winning some fantasy titles. Let’s hope he regains his full health.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR – vs. Atlanta, at NY Giants, at Atlanta
Over the summer, Stewart appeared to have the easiest series of matchups possible for the fantasy playoffs with Atlanta on the docket twice. The Falcons are still a decent matchup for running backs, but not nearly the cakewalk they were in 2014. Stewart will still make for a nice play at playoff time, but not the league-shifting one he was shaping up to be in the preseason.

Arian Foster, HOU – vs. New England, at Indianapolis, at Tennessee
Obviously Arian Foster will not be helping fantasy owners in December. The remaining running backs in Houston have done nothing that resembles a successful running attack, and the previously simple looking December schedule looks much rougher now. The Colts are still a fine matchup, but the Patriots and Titans will make life too difficult to even consider using anyone from the Texans backfield.

Looking Better Now

Frank Gore, IND – at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, at Miami
Colts lead back Frank Gore has given us a prime example of why you probably shouldn’t let preseason schedules weigh too heavily on your draft day decisions. Back in August, this stretch of opponents looked rough enough to include Gore in “The Bad” article, but now he has lined up perhaps the easiest playoff schedule of any running back in the NFL. He will be a must start in December.

Lamar Miller, MIA – vs. NY Giants, at San Diego, vs. Indianapolis
The only thing standing in Miller’s way of a successful fantasy playoff run is the Dolphins. Miller has been a stud whenever he gets the opportunity to carry the load, but Miami occasionally has trouble providing him with that opportunity. Miller will find himself on a lot of fantasy playoff teams due to the return his owners got from him in the third and fourth rounds of drafts, and he should continue to help those lucky owners late in the year, as long as his teammates play along.

Latavius Murray, OAK – at Denver, vs. Green Bay, vs. San Diego
The road to championship week might not be the easiest for Murray, but once you make it to Week 16, Murray will be ready to carry you to that elusive title. Murray has already had one strong performance against the Chargers this year – rushing for 85 yards and a touchdown – and a home meeting in Week 16 should go over even better.

The Bad

Preseason List

DeMarco Murray/Ryan Mathews/Darren Sproles, PHI – vs. BUF, vs. ARI, vs. WAS
The Eagles trio of running backs are still stuck with a rough matchup in Week 15, but the surrounding games aren’t as rough as previously perceived. The Bills can be beat on the ground, and Washington has gotten worse against the run as the year has gone along. If you typically start any Eagles running backs right now, you’re probably starting them in the fantasy playoffs as well.

Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden, DAL – at Green Bay, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo
This group has been narrowed down to just McFadden, and he is probably unbenchable, despite how difficult his playoff schedule still looks. All three opponents still look rough, but not unbeatable, and a workhorse back running behind a strong offensive line needs to be in fantasy lineups.

Frank Gore, IND – at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, at Miami
It’s amazing how things can change from season to season. These three teams went from difficult teams you need to avoid to teams to target. Lucky for you, Frank Gore owners.

Looking Worse Now

LeGarrette Blount, NE – at Houston, vs. Tennessee, at NY Jets
Few players have a more nightmarish fantasy playoff schedule than LeGarrette Blount. His Week 14 matchup isn’t bad, but it gets rough during semi-final and championship weeks. Assuming he maintains his lead back status without Dion Lewis, Blount might be tough to bench in deeper leagues at playoff time, no matter what the matchup happens to be. If you do have other options though, don’t be afraid to use them.

Justin Forsett, BAL – vs. Seattle, vs. Kansas City, vs. Pittsburgh

Remember when I said “few players” have a worse schedule than Blount? Justin Forsett is one of those few. The Ravens’ stretch of Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh is about as difficult as it gets for a running back. To be fair, Forsett’s highest rushing total of the year came against the Steelers in Week 4, so another strong game can’t be ruled out. But when you add up the difficulty of all three opponents, it’ll be a tough go for owners depending on him to carry their team to a title.

Todd Gurley, STL – vs. Detroit, vs. Tampa Bay, at Seattle
I have to mention Gurley because of how difficult the schedule has become, but Gurley is as close to a must start as they come in fantasy football. It’s possible he disappoints in his rough matchups with the Buccaneers and Seahawks, but it won’t be for lack of trying on the part of the Rams’ offense.

WIDE RECEIVER

The Good

Preseason List

T.Y. Hilton/Andre Johnson/Donte Moncrief, IND – at JAX, vs. HOU, at MIA
Two problems have come up for this group. For one, the list of easy opponents in the preseason looks a bit closer to average now. I would have never imagined writing this over the summer, but opponents of average difficulty are an issue for the Indianapolis Colts. That brings us to the second problem: if Matt Hasselbeck is the quarterback in December, you’ll likely be trying very hard to find other options anyway.

Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/John Brown, ARI – vs. MIN, at PHI, vs. GB
The strong playoff schedule has stayed intact for the Arizona receivers, and it’s even better news now than it seemed in August. Fitzgerald is in a much better place than he appeared during the preseason, and Floyd and Brown have each had their moments this season as well. It’s entirely possible that all three Arizona receivers will be in starting lineups for winning playoff teams this season (especially Fitzgerald).

Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, DET – at St. Louis, at New Orleans, vs. San Francisco
The Rams present a tough matchup, then it gets easier for the Lions receivers in Weeks 15 and 16. The one big change for this group from the preseason till now is the latter name, as Golden Tate has turned into a useless fantasy commodity. Johnson owners should embrace the strong matchups, but Tate owners have probably already found replacements for him if they are going to be in the fantasy playoffs.

Looking Better Now

Kamar Aiken, BAL – vs. Seattle, vs. Kansas City, vs. Pittsburgh
With injuries galore taking down the Ravens offense, Kamar Aiken might be the only man left for the fantasy playoffs. You can avoid him in Week 14 against the Seahawks, but the last two weeks, he might be a surprise participant in lineups. The Chiefs might be the best matchup for fantasy wide receivers (but have played better lately), with Pittsburgh having a fairly beatable secondary as well. Don’t sleep on Aiken when you’re finalizing your playoff roster over the next few weeks.

Jeremy Maclin, KC – vs. San Diego, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland
Earlier I highlighted Alex Smith as a quarterback who has an ever improving playoff schedule, so it only makes sense that his top wide receiver is right there with him. Maclin has had a rough few weeks recently, but you should only see that as a way to help you acquire him more easily for your upcoming fantasy playoff run.

DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder, WAS – at CHI, vs. BUF, at PHI
Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has proven capable of handling weaker pass defenses, and that’s what’s coming their way in December, especially in Week 16. The tricky part is figuring out which Washington receiver will be the most useful. All three (plus Jordan Reed) paired with a mediocre Cousins means that despite this solid stretch of opponents, zero Washington receivers might actually show up in any lineups. At least one will go off in various playoff weeks, it will just be too hard to predict.

The Bad

Preseason List

Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley, DAL – at GB, vs. NYJ, at BUF
The Cowboys crew playoff schedule has gone from looking exceedingly difficult to about average. Even if the schedule turned easy, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley probably wouldn’t be options for fantasy playoff teams due to their limited roles. As for Dez Bryant, if you own him, you’re using him even against Revis in Week 15.

Brian Quick/Stedman Bailey/Kenny Britt, STL – vs. DET, vs. TB, at SEA
Let me make this easy for you: you’re not using any Rams wide receivers if you’re in the fantasy playoffs, especially not in Week 16 on the road against the Seahawks. The sad part of the preseason list: I left out Tavon Austin, their top option in fantasy.

Dwayne Bowe/Andrew Hawkins/Taylor Gabriel/Hartline, CLE – vs. SF, at SEA, at KC
As if leaving out Austin wasn’t bad enough, I listed four receivers for the Browns, and I left out the one who would ascend to WR2 status this year. Travis Benjamin will likely be unusable in Week 15 against the Seahawks, but if you survive to title week with Benjamin as an option, he will be someone to consider when the Browns take on the Chiefs.

Looking Worse Now

A.J. Green/Marvin Jones, CIN – vs. Pittsbugh, at San Francisco, at Denver
Weeks 14 and 15 shouldn’t be a huge issue for Cincinnati’s receiving duo, but Week 16 will get very difficult at the worst possible time for their owners. The matchup with Denver in Week 16 means different things for A.J. Green and Marvin Jones: Green will have to be downgraded but can’t be benched, whereas Jones should definitely not be in any lineups.

Odell Beckham Jr./Rueben Randle, NYG – at Miami, vs. Carolina, at Minnesota
If you choose “Last 5 Weeks” or “Last 3 Weeks” in the Data From dropdown menu in the Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool, you’ll find that the Giants wide receivers have negative matchups across the board during the fantasy playoffs. Like the Bengals above, you can’t bench the stud receiver of the group (Beckham Jr.), but you can certainly bench the sidekick (sorry, Rueben ).

Julio Jones, ATL – at Carolina, at Jacksonville, vs. Carolina
Playoff time will be extra tricky for the owners of the best wide receiver in fantasy. It’s obviously impossible to bench Julio Jones, especially in the most important weeks of the season. However, Jones will be matched up with Josh Norman, possibly the best corner in football right now – twice. Jones has a recent history of poor games against the Panthers, averaging just five catches for 58.5 yards against them in 2014. Like I said, it will be almost impossible to bench Jones, but brace yourself for a letdown.

TIGHT END

The Good

Preseason List

Kyle Rudolph, MIN – at Arizona, vs. Chicago, vs. NY Giants
Two out of three of these formerly easy matchups for Kyle Rudolph have transformed into very difficult ones. The one great matchup on the table against the Giants will be wasted, because Rudolph is not someone you’re ever trusting in a fantasy championship game.

Zach Ertz, PHI – vs. Buffalo, vs. Arizona, vs. Washington
We’re two for two in good preseason matchups going bad. Zach Ertz might be on the verge of fantasy usefulness, but he’s certainly not matchup proof. Sorting the Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool data by “Last 8 Weeks,” and you’ll find that Ertz is the only tight end in the league with three red matchups. That’s not good. Go in another direction.

Charles Clay, BUF – at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas
I think we can establish that projected strength of schedules in the preseason mean absolutely nothing at tight end, because this series of opponents is looking ugly for Charles Clay as well. As it is, Clay has been on a decline after a hot start, so by now you’ve probably moved on from him anyway. Don’t look back, it’s not worth it.

Looking Better Now

Greg Olsen, CAR – vs. Atlanta, at NY Giants, at Atlanta
The Rest of the Way Rankings here on FFToday have Greg Olsen as the number two tight end, behind only Rob Gronkowski. Those looking forward rankings are going to look genius once we wrap up the fantasy playoffs, where Olsen will have three consecutive cake matchups. The Panthers tight end is an ideal trade target for anyone who is using a tight end not named Gronk.

Julius Thomas, JAC – vs. Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
Jacksonville hasn’t exactly meant greatness for Julius Thomas in 2015, as he only has one game with more than 23 receiving yards this season. Don’t give up on Thomas quite yet. If someone asked you to put together a perfect sequence of opponents for a tight end, Colts-Falcons-Saints might be what you come up with. If you’ve been struggling at tight end this season, take a stab at Thomas, and hope Blake Bortles and company recognizes matchups as well as fantasy owners.

Eric Ebron, DET – at St. Louis, at New Orleans, vs. San Francisco
Eric Ebron is being highlighted here for one reason and one reason only: the New Orleans Saints. Ebron is more of a target if you are playing matchups week to week in the fantasy playoffs. Slot him into your Week 15 lineup, then worry about Week 16 later.

The Bad

Preseason List

Jimmy Graham, SEA – at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, vs. St. Louis
The matchups for Jimmy Graham aren’t necessarily as difficult as they looked in August, but they aren’t easy either. Matchups aren’t even the story for Graham this season, as he has been an overall disappointment on his new team. At this point, people who have stayed committed to Graham all year probably aren’t turning back now, but don’t expect things to go well in the fantasy playoffs.

Jordan Reed, WAS – at Chicago, vs. Buffalo, at Philadelphia
This set of opponents looked tough for Jordan Reed in the preseason, and that hasn’t changed one bit. The Bills are as tough as it gets for tight ends, and the Eagles aren’t far behind. The Bears are actually the easiest opponent on Reed’s playoff schedule, and even they are a negative matchup for his position.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen, IND – at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, at Miami
The Jaguars and Dolphins matchups are a bit easier than they looked earlier, but that doesn’t matter here. As long as Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are both healthy, you don’t want to be depending on either of them. The possibility of no Andrew Luck makes matters even worse for the Indianapolis duo.

Looking Worse Now

Jason Witten, DAL – at Green Bay, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo
At this moment, Witten owners are probably feeling pretty good with Tony Romo finally re-entering the scene. Those good feelings will likely go away once December arrives. Green Bay is a positive matchup, but it’s downhill after that. The Jets are a negative, and as I mentioned before, the Bills might be the toughest, and they come during title week.

DEFENSE

The Good

Preseason List

Chicago Bears – vs. Washington, at Minnesota, at Tampa Bay
I can see why I liked these matchups for the Bears in August, as these three teams used to make great targets. Now you’re looking at three teams that have done an excellent job of playing it safe lately, and now all three of these opponents present negative matchups for fantasy defenses. You’re not considering the Bears during the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints – at Tampa Bay, vs. Detroit, vs. Jacksonville
The Lions and Jaguars would stand out as targetable opponents if the Saints were a normal defense. The Saints are not a normal defense. No matchup is good enough to consider using the New Orleans defense.

New England Patriots – at Houston, vs. Tennessee, at NY Jets
Technically, the Titans are the only solid matchup here. However, being that the Patriots are the Patriots, any week has a chance at being a good week for their defense. With the offense getting big leads, opponents are forced to throw more than usual, giving the defense more opportunities to create more sacks and turnovers. I would always suggest exploring defenses from week to week, but if you have to stick with one to help win a title, you could do much worse than New England.

Looking Better Now

Cincinnati Bengals – vs. Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, at Denver
I wouldn’t suggest using the Bengals against the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers, but after that, give them a go for sure. The 49ers are a defense target no matter who they are using at quarterback, while the Broncos have become a surprising team to use defenses against. It would make for nervous times starting a defense against Peyton Manning in a fantasy title game, but get over the name, he’s not the same as the Manning of old.

Tampa Bay Bucs – vs. New Orleans, at St. Louis, vs. Chicago
This is a very interesting group of offenses to consider targeting with the Tampa Bay defense. The Saints can be high scoring, but also turnover prone. The Rams are tricky to go against because of the power of Todd Gurley, but the quarterback situation could be helpful for fantasy defenses. Then there’s Jay Cutler, who is an interception waiting to happen. I don’t think I could personally go with the Tampa risk, but if you’re in a pinch, they could come through.

St. Louis Rams – vs. Detroit, vs. Tampa Bay, at Seattle
A home matchup against the turnover king Matthew Stafford, a home matchup against rookie Jameis Winston, and a road meeting with the definitely not last year’s Seattle Seahawks makes December look very nice for the Rams defense. St. Louis is on the edge of unbenchable anyway, and the matchups just make it easier to stick with them.

The Bad

Preseason List

Kansas City Chiefs – vs. San Diego, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland
The Chargers and Ravens matchups are still just as difficult as they appeared in the preseason, so you’re going to continue ignore them in Weeks 14 and 15. In Week 16, however, they get the Browns at home – one of the easiest matchups in the league. Johnny Manziel in Arrowhead? Sign me up for the Chiefs defense in my championship games.

New York Jets – vs. Tennessee, at Dallas, vs. New England
The Jets can be used in Week 14 against the Titans, and even potentially in Week 15 against the Cowboys, despite the return of Tony Romo. That’s the end of the line, though. I don’t think you need me to explain to you that you should avoid any defense going against the Patriots.

Pittsburgh Steelers – at Cincinnati, vs. Denver, at Baltimore
A home game in Week 15 against the Broncos makes the Steelers defense potentially useable, but that’s about it. I would probably even look in another direction that week too, as Pittsburgh is a generally unreliable fantasy defense.

Looking Worse Now

New York Giants – at Miami, vs. Carolina, at Minnesota
The Giants have been a better than expected fantasy unit in 2015, but that run is coming to an end after you (maybe) use them in Week 14. I wouldn’t go anywhere near any defense playing the Panthers. Then in Week 16, they play the Vikings, a team that isn’t an offensive powerhouse, but doesn’t make enough mistakes to give opportunities to their fantasy opponents.

Denver Broncos – vs. Oakland, at Pittsburgh, vs. Cincinnati
Arizona Cardinals – vs. Minnesota, at Philadelphia, vs. Green Bay

These two fantasy defenses will create an interesting conundrum for their owners. The Broncos and Cardinals are two of the rare defenses that have become weekly starters at defense no matter the matchup, and yet, they each face three-straight negative matchups at fantasy playoff time. It will be tough to bench a defense you’ve been using all year, but don’t be afraid to consider it if you find the right matchup on your waiver wire.