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Preseason Schedule Analysis
The "Big Boards"
8/24/10

For me, there are few times during the year I look forward to more than my money league drafts. Being on the cusp of building a championship team and outwitting your opponents is a feeling hard to describe, but one worth experiencing for the sheer excitement and exhilaration it can produce.

However, that feeling of adrenaline shooting through your veins can come to a quick halt if you don't feel like the most prepared owner in your league on draft day. Even though many fantasy owners play just for bragging rights, the goal for money leaguers and non-money leaguers alike is the same: win. In my experience, winning starts in the offseason with preparation, continues at the draft when you can calmly select value over need, which carries over nicely into the season when it is time to make a trade or two. Ideally, all of this lands you firmly in the playoffs with an above-average chance to claim the league championship.

As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2010.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a couple of key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous. No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end more fantasy championship dreams than they help.

Note: At least for this first Big Board, I have chosen to stop at 150 players and let you – the fantasy owner – decide at what point you should select your kicker and defense. One major change from last year is that I have carried over the entire color-coding system from my PSAs to the Big Boards in order to give you an easy reference tool for the entire season and not just Weeks 14-16.

Key:
OR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
AVG – Fantasy points/game
TOT – Total fantasy points scored
V – Volatility
(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players:

 PPR Big Board
OR PR Pos Player V AVG TOT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 24.7 370
2 2 RB Chris Johnson - 23.1 323
3 3 RB Ray Rice 22.5 338
4 4 RB Adrian Peterson 22.1 332
5 5 RB Frank Gore 21.1 296
6 6 RB Steven Jackson 20.6 310
7 1 WR Andre Johnson 20.0 300
8 1 QB Aaron Rodgers 25.9 388
9 2 WR Randy Moss 19.2 288
10 7 RB Michael Turner 17.1 257
11 2 QB Drew Brees 24.4 366
12 3 WR Calvin Johnson 19.2 269
13 4 WR Roddy White 18.5 278
14 5 WR Miles Austin 17.7 265
15 8 RB Jamaal Charles 18.8 283
16 9 RB DeAngelo Williams 16.4 247
17 3 QB Peyton Manning 23.5 352
18 4 QB Tony Romo + 24.0 360
19 6 WR Marques Colston 17.3 259
20 7 WR Reggie Wayne 17.3 260
21 10 RB Rashard Mendenhall - 16.1 241
22 11 RB Ryan Mathews 14.3 215
23 12 RB Knowshon Moreno 16.1 241
24 13 RB Shonn Greene ^ 16.3 179
25 8 WR Brandon Marshall 17.2 258
26 9 WR Steve Smith (CAR) 17.5 263
27 10 WR Anquan Boldin 18.2 237
28 11 WR Larry Fitzgerald 16.4 247
29 14 RB Pierre Thomas 15.8 206
30 15 RB Cedric Benson - 15.3 200
31 16 RB Arian Foster + 15.3 215
32 12 WR Dwayne Bowe + 16.7 251
33 13 WR Greg Jennings 15.5 233
34 17 RB Ryan Grant 14.6 219
35 5 QB Tom Brady 21.4 320
36 18 RB Jahvid Best + 15.7 220
37 19 RB Chris Wells 14.2 214
38 20 RB Matt Forte 15.0 225
39 21 RB LeSean McCoy - 15.0 225
40 14 WR Steve Smith (NYG) 15.6 234
41 22 RB Jonathan Stewart 13.9 209
42 23 RB Joseph Addai - 13.9 209
43 6 QB Matt Schaub 19.9 298
44 7 QB Jay Cutler - 21.6 324
45 1 TE Jermichael Finley ^ 17.0 255
46 2 TE Antonio Gates 16.8 252
47 15 WR DeSean Jackson ! 14.9 224
48 3 TE Vernon Davis 16.2 244
49 4 TE Brent Celek + 16.1 241
50 5 TE Jason Witten + 15.8 238
51 6 TE Dallas Clark 15.2 229
52 8 QB Kevin Kolb - 19.1 287
53 9 QB Philip Rivers - 18.8 281
54 24 RB Michael Bush ^ 13.8 207
55 16 WR Hines Ward 15.3 229
56 17 WR Michael Crabtree 14.1 212
57 18 WR Mike Wallace ^ 14.5 218
58 19 WR Hakeem Nicks + 14.2 213
59 7 TE Tony Gonzalez 14.9 223
60 20 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 15.0 211
61 21 WR Chad Ochocinco 14.8 222
62 10 QB Joe Flacco + 19.3 289
63 22 WR Sidney Rice - 13.6 204
64 25 RB Ricky Williams 14.3 215
65 26 RB Reggie Bush 14.4 187
66 27 RB Cadillac Williams 13.9 194
67 28 RB Ronnie Brown - 12.5 150
68 29 RB Felix Jones - 12.3 160
69 30 RB C.J. Spiller 12.1 182
70 31 RB Fred Jackson 10.2 153
71 32 RB Brandon Jacobs + 13.4 187
72 33 RB Tim Hightower 13.1 196
73 34 RB Marion Barber 11.9 178
74 35 RB Ahmad Bradshaw + 12.6 177
75 23 WR Johnny Knox ^ 13.7 206
76 11 QB Brett Favre ! 18.3 275
77 24 WR Terrell Owens 14.7 221
78 25 WR Derrick Mason 14.3 215
79 8 TE Chris Cooley 14.6 219
80 9 TE Zach Miller (OAK) 14.0 210
81 36 RB Donald Brown + 10.2 153
82 37 RB Clinton Portis 11.1 166
83 38 RB Justin Forsett + 10.7 161
84 26 WR Jeremy Maclin 13.1 197
85 27 WR Wes Welker ! 12.2 159
86 12 QB Carson Palmer 19.3 289
87 13 QB Ben Roethlisberger 18.6 204
88 14 QB Matthew Stafford ^ 18.6 279
89 15 QB Matt Ryan 18.2 273
90 28 WR Santana Moss 13.1 196
91 29 WR Devin Aromashodu + 13.1 196
92 30 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 12.9 194
93 39 RB LaDainian Tomlinson - 9.8 138
94 10 TE John Carlson 13.2 198
95 16 QB Eli Manning 17.9 269
96 17 QB Donovan McNabb 18.1 236
97 40 RB Thomas Jones + 8.8 133
98 41 RB Jerome Harrison + 10.3 155
99 31 WR Malcom Floyd 12.9 194
100 32 WR Jerricho Cotchery 13.5 203
101 42 RB Steve Slaton 10.5 157
102 33 WR Percy Harvin ! 15.5 217
103 34 WR Santonio Holmes ! 13.5 148 +
104 35 WR Vincent Jackson ! 17.2 155
105 43 RB Darren McFadden - 10.4 136
106 44 RB Montario Hardesty - 9.8 128
107 11 TE Kellen Winslow 12.1 181
108 36 WR Devin Hester + 11.3 169
109 37 WR Julian Edelman ^ 11.1 167
110 12 TE Visanthe Shiancoe 10.6 159
111 45 RB Chester Taylor 8.6 130
112 38 WR Mike Williams (TB) !/^ 11.7 176
113 39 WR Dez Bryant 10.5 158
114 46 RB Bernard Scott + 9.1 128
115 47 RB Darren Sproles 9.0 135
116 13 TE Owen Daniels ! 10.6 159
117 14 TE Heath Miller 10.3 154
118 40 WR Nate Burleson 11.9 179
119 41 WR Robert Meachem ! 10.9 164
120 42 WR Austin Collie - 10.6 159
121 43 WR Lee Evans 10.5 158
122 44 WR Donald Driver ! 10.5 158
123 45 WR Steve Breaston + 11.1 167
124 46 WR Pierre Garcon - 10.2 153
125 18 QB Alex Smith 17.2 257
126 19 QB David Garrard 17.4 261
127 20 QB Matt Hasselbeck - 17.2 206
128 21 QB Josh Freeman + 17.1 256
129 48 RB Laurence Maroney - 8.5 93
130 15 TE Dustin Keller 9.2 138
131 49 RB Tashard Choice + 5.8 87
132 50 RB Willis McGahee - 6.3 95
133 51 RB Larry Johnson 8.4 126
134 47 WR Early Doucet ^ 12.5 187
135 48 WR Mohamed Massaquoi 10.3 155
136 52 RB Julius Jones - 6.7 94
137 53 RB Correll Buckhalter 6.5 98
138 49 WR Jabar Gaffney + 10.0 150
139 50 WR Mike Thomas ^ 10.6 159
140 51 WR Chris Chambers 10.1 152
141 16 TE Tony Scheffler ^ 8.9 134
142 54 RB Leon Washington 8.7 131
143 55 RB Marshawn Lynch !/^ 4.7 70
144 52 WR Davone Bess 10.0 150
145 53 WR Bernard Berrian 10.0 150
146 54 WR Louis Murphy + 9.9 148
147 55 WR Jacoby Jones ^ 9.7 146
148 56 WR Lance Moore 9.1 137
149 57 WR Kevin Walter 9.2 139
150 58 WR Eddie Royal + 9.2 138

Top 10: The consensus top four backs remain that way here, albeit in a different order than most would expect. Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson have very similar situations in that both players have their team’s backfield all to themselves on offenses where running the ball is the focus. Where I separate the two backs this year is that while MJD’s supporting cast got a bit stronger (or more experienced), Johnson’s crew lost a bit up front (TE Alge Crumpler and C Kevin Mawae were allowed to leave). The other difference – and critics would say it is too small of one to consider – is the two opponents Tennessee and Jacksonville do not share. Whereas CJ has Pittsburgh and Miami to contend with, MJD has Buffalo and Cleveland.

The other eyebrow-raiser in this group figures to be Rice over Peterson. This order pretty much stems from my belief that Rice will not only benefit from a much easier schedule than the one Peterson has, but that he will also make Willis McGahee obsolete early in the season, much as Johnson did with LenDale White in 2009. Despite the large PPG difference between Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, I am very tempted to flip the two backs in my rankings. But in PPR – and even with my belief that Turner will be slightly more involved in the passing game – Jackson should probably win out as he not only figures to be right there with Turner in rushing yards, but he also produces like a low-end slot receiver in the passing game.

11-20: Much like I believe Rice will secure the majority of carries in Baltimore’s backfield, I feel Charles will do the same in KC. The major difference is that Thomas Jones is a much better back (in reality or fantasy) than McGahee. Still, I question Jones 4.2 YPC with the Jets’ good run-blocking line and marvel at Charles 5.9 YPC behind the Chiefs’ below-average line (which actually was over six YPC after he was named the starter in 2009). In my estimation, Charles will see 250 rushes and 50 catches while Jones will relieve him on the occasional series and at the goal line.

Peyton Manning gets a bump over Romo simply because of his consistency, but it is such a close call that if I were to draft 10 times and had to choose between them, I may go with one of them five times and do the same with the other. Wayne finds himself at the tail end of this group for two reasons: 1) even though he is the lead WR with Manning at QB, there are just getting to be too many mouths to feed in Indy and 2) he’ll face off against Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha in Week 16. Assuming the Colts don’t have another home-field berth locked up by that point again (at which point he may get pulled at halftime), the idea of Wayne facing one of the top 2-3 CBs in the league probably won’t help fantasy owners win their titles.

21-50: After spending a great deal of time believing that Mendenhall and Mathews would get passed over when the offense moved inside the 10, I was convinced otherwise over the weekend – at least in one case anyway. Regarding Mendenhall, this article changed my mind regarding his red-zone opportunities. (Keep in mind, however, that OC Bruce Arians has compared Mendenhall to Edgerrin James since he was a rookie and still has yet to use him in that fashion.) As for Mathews, he was given a handful of carries inside the 10 during the first half of the Chargers’ preseason game vs. the Cowboys. Ultimately, Rivers scored on a QB sneak when Mathews was unable to cross the stripe, but the implied message is that Mike Tolbert and Mathews are definitely still competing for those all-important short-yardage carries. In Pittsburgh, the competition for Mendenhall is Isaac “Red Zone” Redman, who has quickly emerged as Mendenhall’s most likely “handcuff”. If for some reason either Mendenhall or Mathews comes up short in the red zone over the first 2-3 weeks of the regular season, don’t be a bit surprised if Tolbert or Redman take the job and keep it for the rest of the season. If I was to institute a red-zone meter that measured a feature back’s grasp on his team’s goal-line carries, I would put Mendenhall at about a 7 while Mathews would score a 5.

Unless he continues to have problems with his hamstring (which the Broncos are treating with extreme care), Moreno is on track for Week 1 and figures to be the centerpiece of the Denver offense. Although I am a big fan of his, he should be not considered a RB1 in 12-team leagues due to his obvious downside (bad offense, Brandon Marshall no longer around to draw a double team, etc). But due to the lack of feature RBs in great situations, he will likely be many owners’ top RB. The same thing goes for Greene, who is in a great situation, but will need to come close to Michael Turner’s 2008 season if he hopes to produce like a RB1 in fantasy because he will give his owners virtually nothing as a receiver.

It pains me to group Fitzgerald in with the misfits (Marshall) and injury risks (Smith, Boldin), but the offense is going to be more balanced and the Cardinals’ WR probably isn’t going to be more productive with less opportunity and a less accurate QB. Of the backs in the top end of this group, I really like Benson and Foster to play like RB1s in fantasy. In fact, Benson would be higher on the list if I could convince myself he is anything more than an average back that was capable of scoring 10+ TDs in what should be a dynamic offense. As for Foster, the Texans seem to be falling in love with him. If he gets the workload I expect him to get, he may be a top 10 fantasy RB this season.

Best was considerably higher on my board earlier this month, but I’m backing off just a bit to protect myself against his injury history. Still, I have him ranked as a mid-range RB2 in 12-team leagues at the end of the third round, so it is not as if I have soured on him all that much. And for yet another shocker…Finley is my #1 PPR TE. It wouldn’t surprise me if a Vincent Jackson-less Chargers’ offense made Gates an 80-catch TE for the third time in his career, but the offseason Finley has enjoyed has catapulted him (in my opinion anyway) from the back end of the elite TEs to the top of the position. And because he is Aaron Rodgers’ preferred weapon in the red zone AND he will be seeing time in the slot, it is quite possible he lives up to my lofty expectations.

51-100: One of the offseason’s top fantasy stories, Kolb makes his “Big Board” debut at #51. As I stated in my Updated Projections piece, I see a bit of Aaron Rodgers in him. The difference between 2010 Kolb and 2008 Rodgers, however, is that Michael Vick will get thrown into the mix every so often and I fear that will keep the former from being an elite option in fantasy this season. The other part that scares me a bit about Kolb is the schedule; he does not face a single defense over the second half of the season in which we can safely say he will dominate the matchup. I’ll quickly move down just two spots to talk up Michael Bush, who I expect will command about 70% of the workload in Oakland this season. With Jason Campbell, Zach Miller and Louis Murphy making the passing game at least somewhat respectable, the time is now for Bush. Keep in mind this is a RB who averaged 4.8 YPC last season for an offense that struck no fear in opponents through the air.

At this point, I’m going to skip down to the trio of WRs I have at 59-61. Mike Sims-Walker should be a rock-solid option when he plays, which may be five or 15 games considering his injury history. There’s no doubt a healthy Terrell Owens will help the Bengals, but will it help Ochocinco revert back to the inconsistent fantasy force he was a few years ago or the more consistent fantasy wideout he has become? Sidney Rice has become a huge question mark and I’m not exactly sure I want to be counting on him (or Percy Harvin, for that matter) as anything more than WR3s in fantasy this season.

After watching both of their games during this preseason and studying the stats from last season, the Bills’ awful offensive line only appears to be awful when they decide to pass. The run blocking is at least good enough to support two useful fantasy backs that complement each other well and I think that is exactly what will happen with Fred Jackson and Spiller. I don’t believe either back will visit the end zone all that much, but I could easily see a scenario in which Jackson rushes for a 1,000 yards and Spiller leads the team in catches. Because Jackson will still catch a few balls and Spiller will take 8-10 handoffs per game, their end-of-the-year totals should make each player a worthy RB3.

I have really started to come around on Knox. While others chase the hype of Hester or the late-season production of Aromashodu, I’ve seen what I needed to see from the WR who will line up in Torry Holt’s old split end position in Mike Martz’s offense. The fact that he wrapped up a starting job – and a specific role at that – in June while Hester and Aromashodu are still fighting over the flanker spot suggest that Knox has done the best job at transitioning into the new offense and is probably the best route runner. Combining the mental discipline with his elite track speed, Knox is going to be a handful for defensive backs under Martz and would be my prediction as a mid-round WR who enjoys the same kind of breakout season DeSean Jackson had in 2010.

I absolutely hate putting Welker at #85 overall (#27 amongst WRs), but I will have my doubts about his knee all season long. Keep in mind that he not only blew out his ACL in Week 17 of last season, but also he waited a month for his MCL to heal on its own before undergoing the ACL surgery. If the injury would have occurred in Week 1 of the 2009 season, that would be one thing. But we are looking at having Welker back just over six months after surgery in what is usually an 18-month recovery period (in terms of regaining pre-surgery speed and quickness), so either Welker will have healed at three times the speed most athletes do or he will be a shell of himself this year. Based on my ranking, I think it’s obvious which way I am leaning.

I am finally ready to drop Vincent Jackson. If he stays in San Diego and ends up changing his mind about playing this year, he’ll miss six games for sure now. If he is traded, he’ll have to learn a new system on the fly and probably be used strictly as a deep threat until that team has a bye week. Of course, he still will miss the first three weeks of the season regardless due to his suspension.

101-150: I dropped Harvin significantly following his latest migrane-related incident. If he can play 15 games like he did last season, I feel he is a solid bet to be the Vikings’ top receiver. But his health issues are becoming enough of a concern that he must be considered a weekly “injury risk” and owners will need to treat him much as we used to treat Brian Westbrook – hope that he stays off the injury report and doesn’t hit you with a surprise DNP. As a result, I have lumped him in with two other very talented receivers who already know they will be missing time in 2010 – Santonio Holmes and Vincent Jackson. In fact, all the players from 101-106 fall into the injury risk or suspended category.

I’m not quite as high on Edelman as I was about a month ago, but I’m holding firm to my belief about Welker. And if/when Welker cannot play, owners will want the former Kent State QB on their roster. I have him rated as the first WR4 in 12-team leagues and would not be surprised if he performed like a top-end WR3 even if Welker and Moss both stay healthy.

Most observers will be shocked to see such a low ranking on Garcon, but I’m not really sure how he posts numbers much better than he did in 2009. Most defenses know Manning can/will burn them deep if they give him a chance, so they usually opt to give him the shorter routes. While Garcon is not strictly a deep threat, he rates well behind Wayne and Clark in the pecking order. And this year, he will have to cede at least some of his catches to Anthony Gonzalez.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OR PR Pos Player V AVG TOT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 20.4 306
2 2 RB Chris Johnson - 18.1 271
3 3 RB Adrian Peterson 19.0 286
4 4 RB Ray Rice 18.5 278
5 5 RB Frank Gore 16.9 253
6 1 QB Aaron Rodgers 25.9 388
7 6 RB Michael Turner 16.1 242
8 7 RB Steven Jackson 16.6 250
9 2 QB Drew Brees 24.4 366
10 1 WR Randy Moss 13.5 203
11 2 WR Andre Johnson 13.2 199
12 3 QB Peyton Manning 23.5 352
13 8 RB Jamaal Charles 15.3 230
14 9 RB DeAngelo Williams 14.6 219
15 3 WR Calvin Johnson 12.6 189
16 4 WR Roddy White 12.9 194
17 5 WR Marques Colston 12.1 181
18 6 WR Miles Austin 11.9 179
19 10 RB Rashard Mendenhall - 13.9 209
20 11 RB Ryan Mathews 12.9 194
21 4 QB Tony Romo + 24.0 360
22 12 RB Knowshon Moreno 12.9 194
23 5 QB Tom Brady 21.4 320
24 7 WR Steve Smith (CAR) 12.1 181
25 8 WR Reggie Wayne 11.7 175
26 13 RB Shonn Greene ^ 11.5 172
27 9 WR Brandon Marshall 11.6 174
28 10 WR Larry Fitzgerald 11.0 166
29 11 WR Anquan Boldin 10.6 159
30 14 RB Chris Wells 13.0 195
31 15 RB Cedric Benson - 12.2 183
32 16 RB Jonathan Stewart 12.5 188
33 17 RB Ryan Grant 12.8 193
34 18 RB Arian Foster + 12.0 181
35 19 RB Jahvid Best + 12.0 180
36 20 RB Pierre Thomas 11.7 176
37 21 RB Michael Bush ^ 12.3 184
38 22 RB Matt Forte 12.0 180
39 6 QB Matt Schaub 19.9 298
40 12 WR Dwayne Bowe + 11.1 166
41 13 WR Greg Jennings 10.7 161
42 7 QB Jay Cutler - 21.6 324
43 8 QB Kevin Kolb - 19.1 287
44 9 QB Philip Rivers - 18.8 281
45 1 TE Jermichael Finley ^ 11.6 174
46 2 TE Antonio Gates 11.0 166
47 14 WR DeSean Jackson ! 10.0 151
48 3 TE Vernon Davis 10.7 161
49 4 TE Brent Celek + 10.2 153
50 5 TE Jason Witten + 10.0 150
51 6 TE Dallas Clark 9.7 146
52 23 RB LeSean McCoy - 11.4 172
53 24 RB Joseph Addai - 10.9 164
54 10 QB Joe Flacco + 19.3 289
55 25 RB Ricky Williams 12.1 181
56 26 RB Cadillac Williams 10.8 162
57 27 RB Marion Barber 10.4 156
58 28 RB Ahmad Bradshaw + 10.1 152
59 15 WR Hines Ward 9.9 148
60 16 WR Terrell Owens 9.9 149
61 17 WR Chad Ochocinco 9.9 149
62 18 WR Steve Smith (NYG) 9.7 146
63 19 WR Mike Wallace ^ 9.8 148
64 20 WR Hakeem Nicks + 9.5 142
65 21 WR Michael Crabtree 9.1 136
66 7 TE Tony Gonzalez 9.4 141
67 29 RB Ronnie Brown - 9.3 140
68 30 RB Brandon Jacobs + 11.3 170
69 31 RB Fred Jackson 8.5 128
70 32 RB Reggie Bush 9.4 141
71 33 RB Tim Hightower 9.8 147
72 22 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 9.4 141
73 23 WR Sidney Rice - 9.2 138
74 24 WR Derrick Mason 9.3 139
75 25 WR Johnny Knox ^ 9.2 138
76 26 WR Jeremy Maclin 8.9 134
77 27 WR Malcom Floyd 8.9 133
78 34 RB Clinton Portis 9.1 137
79 35 RB Felix Jones - 8.9 133
80 36 RB C.J. Spiller 8.5 128
81 37 RB Donald Brown + 8.9 133
82 28 WR Santana Moss 8.4 126
83 29 WR Devin Aromashodu + 8.7 131
84 38 RB Justin Forsett + 8.6 130
85 39 RB Thomas Jones + 7.7 116
86 30 WR Percy Harvin ! 8.8 132
87 11 QB Brett Favre ! 18.3 275
88 8 TE Chris Cooley 8.9 134
89 9 TE Zach Miller (OAK) 8.9 134
90 12 QB Carson Palmer 19.3 289
91 13 QB Matthew Stafford ^ 18.6 279
92 14 QB Ben Roethlisberger 18.6 204
93 15 QB Matt Ryan 18.2 273
94 10 TE John Carlson 8.3 125
95 40 RB Montario Hardesty - 7.9 118
96 41 RB Jerome Harrison + 7.4 111
97 42 RB LaDainian Tomlinson - 7.3 110
98 16 QB Donovan McNabb 18.1 236
99 17 QB Eli Manning 17.9 269
100 31 WR Mike Williams (TB) !/^ 8.1 122
101 43 RB Steve Slaton 7.3 109
102 44 RB Bernard Scott + 6.7 100
103 45 RB Laurence Maroney - 5.8 87
104 46 RB Leon Washington 6.7 100
105 47 RB Darren McFadden - 6.6 100
106 48 RB Willis McGahee - 5.8 87
107 32 WR Jerricho Cotchery 8.6 129
108 11 TE Visanthe Shiancoe 7.1 106
109 12 TE Kellen Winslow 6.9 104
110 49 RB Larry Johnson 7.4 111
111 50 RB Chester Taylor 6.8 102
112 33 WR Nate Burleson 7.7 116
113 34 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 7.6 115
114 35 WR Robert Meachem ! 7.6 115
115 36 WR Devin Hester + 7.6 114
116 37 WR Pierre Garcon - 7.3 110
117 38 WR Wes Welker ! 6.5 97
118 39 WR Vincent Jackson ! 7.3 109
119 40 WR Lee Evans 7.1 106
120 41 WR Jacoby Jones ^ 7.0 105
121 42 WR Dez Bryant 6.8 103
122 18 QB Alex Smith 17.2 257
123 19 QB David Garrard 17.4 261
124 20 QB Matt Hasselbeck - 17.2 206
125 43 WR Donald Driver ! 6.7 100
126 44 WR Steve Breaston + 6.8 103
127 45 WR Bernard Berrian 6.8 103
128 46 WR Santonio Holmes ! 6.8 102 +
129 47 WR Mohamed Massaquoi 6.6 99
130 48 WR Austin Collie - 6.6 100
131 21 QB Josh Freeman + 17.1 256
132 49 WR Chris Chambers 7.0 105
133 50 WR Early Doucet ^ 8.1 122
134 51 RB Kareem Huggins 6.9 103
135 51 WR Jabar Gaffney + 6.2 93
136 52 WR Mike Thomas ^ 6.6 99
137 53 WR Louis Murphy + 6.3 95
138 52 RB Darren Sproles 6.2 93
139 53 RB Correll Buckhalter 5.4 81
140 54 RB Julius Jones - 5.2 78
141 55 RB Tashard Choice + 4.7 71
142 13 TE Owen Daniels ! 6.7 101
143 14 TE Heath Miller 6.7 100
144 56 RB Marshawn Lynch !/^ 3.8 57
145 57 RB Kevin Faulk 6.6 99
146 15 TE Tony Scheffler ^ 5.8 87
147 16 TE Dustin Keller 5.6 85
148 21 QB Matt Cassel + 16.8 252
149 22 QB Chad Henne 15.9 239
150 23 QB Matt Moore 15.1 227

Top 10: Not much change from the PPR board at the top, with the exceptions being that Rodgers is a much more valuable property than he already is in a league where passing TDs are worth six points and receptions are not factored in for RBs, WRs or TEs. With the PPR removed from the equation, the gap between Turner and Jackson is minimal. In that case, I tend to believe Turner will be more consistent and, thus, the better fantasy RB. Last but not least, Moss edges out Andre Johnson as the #1 overall WR, although I expect I will be debating that one right until the end.

11-20: While many fantasy owners are jumping off the Charles bandwagon, I don’t mind staying on. Yes, Thomas Jones is definitely a legitimate threat, but this whole scenario playing out in the preseason in Chiefs’ camp feels exactly like the same kind of motivational ploy HC Todd Haley tried to use with Dwayne Bowe in 2009.

For the very reasons I described in the PPR section, I cannot trust that Mendenhall and Mathews will be able to hold on to the goal-line duties all season long. For that reason, I feel very comfortable placing Manning and the four WRs I have from #15-18 overall ahead of them.

21-50: As one might expect, Stewart gets a nice boost up the board – six spots at the RB position and nine spots overall. On the other hand, McCoy falls completely out of the top 50, dropping 13 spots overall. Much as they have during the Andy Reid era recently, the Eagles’ offense doesn’t appear all that interested in running the ball or setting a tone on the ground. And seeing the way that McCoy is still struggling with blitz pickup in the preseason, he may lose regular work to Mike Bell and/or Leonard Weaver.

McCoy’s drop, however, pales in comparison to that of the Giants’ Steve Smith, who goes from #40 in PPR to #62 in non-PPR. Smith will continue to be a PPR stud because he and Eli Manning always appear to be in synch and he is his quarterback's most trusted option. But Nicks’ talent may be too much to ignore in non-PPR when fantasy owners subtract the 80+ catches Smith figures to get.

51-100: It’s an interesting thought that Ochocinco and Owens may finish with nearly identical stats, but it may be time to consider that T.O. will actually outperform his younger friend this season. Admittedly, I have Ochocinco as the higher-rated WR in PPR, but in non-PPR, Owens strikes me as the better bet given his long history of scoring touchdowns. Add in the fact that he is supposed to be the Bengals’ “deep threat” as well and it isn’t all that foolish to believe Owens is the more attractive fantasy WR. For all of his greatness, Ochocinco has yet to take that next step in terms of being a consistent red-zone force each and every week.

Fred Jackson is in a terrible situation. His team will be dreadful, his offensive line is about two years away from meeting NFL standards, he may miss Week 1 and he has to share carries with Spiller, to a certain extent. With that said, he’s being unfairly punished in drafts this summer. (For example, I landed him in the eighth round of a 14-team experts’ non-PPR draft completed on August 23.) While he won’t have the benefit of enjoying the majority of carries like he did for most of last year, let us remember that he enjoyed a pretty good rushing season in 2009 with virtually the same supporting cast.

101-150: I’ll be the first to admit that if McGahee continues to steal red-zone carries from Ray Rice, I’ll be considerably off on two projections. There is also a small chance McGahee gets traded at some point, which would leave Le’Ron McClain as the goal-line vulture. However, I don’t see either scenario stopping Rice from becoming a true fantasy animal, although it should be noted that Ravens OC Cam Cameron has a history of splitting the work in his backfield over the first 3-4 weeks of the season before settling on one bell-cow RB. Therefore, I have a hard time seeing McGahee being anywhere close to fantasy relevant as he was last season.

It’s no secret non-PPR leagues depress the value of some receivers. Two of the players the league change hurts the most are Houshmandzadeh and Welker. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if both players caught 80+ balls this season, but both are poor bets (in my mind anyway) to reach 1,000 yards receiving or catch more than four TD passes. If these statements end up being correct, fantasy owners simply cannot justify taking a WR in the first five or so rounds in non-PPR that has a ceiling of roughly eight fantasy points per game.

I’m not particularly thrilled with the prospect of owning Daniels this season and I sure can’t imagine drafting him as my TE1. In some drafts, he is being selected right outside the consensus first six TEs and while last year’s stats back that price tag up, his injury history and the depth at the TE position nowadays in fantasy do not. However, if I am presented with the opportunity to draft Daniels at my TE2, count me in.

 Kickers
Rk Pos Player FPts XP FG
1 K Stephen Gostkowski 135 42 31
2 K Mason Crosby 133 46 29
3 K David Akers 129 39 30
4 K Nate Kaeding 129 39 30
5 K Lawrence Tynes 126 39 29
6 K Ryan Longwell 125 44 27
7 K Shayne Graham 121 46 25
8 K David Buehler 119 47 24
9 K Matt Bryant 118 40 26
10 K Rob Bironas 118 34 28
11 K Nick Folk 117 36 27
12 K Jeff Reed 117 39 26
13 K Garrett Hartley 115 46 23
14 K Robbie Gould 114 39 25
15 K Neil Rackers/Kris Brown 114 36 26
16 K Jay Feely 113 38 25

Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks

 Defense/Special Teams
Rk D/ST FPts PA Sk TO TD Bon   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 49ers DST 181 180 43 58 30 50                                  
2 Steelers DST 176 185 50 54 30 42                                  
3 Packers DST 160 265 43 60 36 21                                  
4 Bengals DST 154 238 40 58 30 26                                  
5 Saints D/ST 150 297 36 72 30 12                                  
6 Jets D/ST 149 200 42 48 12 47                                  
7 Vikings DST 145 299 48 56 30 11                                  
8 Eagles DST 143 293 38 56 30 19                                  
9 Raiders DST 139 233 36 58 12 33                                  
10 Colts D/ST 138 258 36 56 24 22                                  
11 Cowboys DST 129 251 42 44 18 25                                  
12 Dolphins DST 129 256 34 54 18 23                                  
13 Ravens DST 129 298 40 50 24 15                                  
14 Giants DST 126 296 44 44 24 14                                  
15 Bears DST 117 322 35 52 24 6                                  
16 Redskins DST 103 282 30 38 18 17                                  

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