Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




Create An Account  |  Advertise  |  Contact      




 


Staff Writer
Email Doug

Doug's Articles

Preseason Schedule Analysis
The "Big Boards" - Final
9/7/10

It’s hard to believe that a player’s fantasy value can change all that much following the completion of Week 3 of the preseason. But if there was ever a week that altered the fantasy values of a handful of players – this past week was it. While I’ll go into more detail with each of these players in the PPR and non-PPR sections of this article, let’s take a brief look at some of the players who benefited the most from the injuries/cuts that rocked the fantasy football world this past week:

Jerome Harrison – HC Eric Mangini’s favorite player to hate makes an incredible jump up the Big Board after rookie RB Montario Hardesty was lost for the season last week. As a result, last year’s fantasy playoff darling enjoys a meteoric rise from my #42 RB and #111 overall in PPR to #31 and #72, respectively this week, which should make him an attractive late-fourth or early-fifth round pick in PPR. Mangini told Browns beat reporter Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that he expects Harrison to “seize the opportunity” to be the No. 1 man and “run with it”. That’s all good and well, but I can’t bring myself to trust the coach when he had little problem playing with Harrison’s mind all of last season (as well as the minds of his fantasy owners). Many owners missed out on his historic 286-yard rushing day on Week 15 last season because Mangini thought Chris Jennings was the better runner. Suffice it to say, he doesn’t come without some red flags, so I can’t trust him as much as his skill level says I should. Let’s also not forget Peyton Hillis – who was already receiving heavy consideration for the goal-line role or 2009 preseason sensation James Davis. I’ve got a bad feeling the coach will make either Hillis or Davis the 2010 version of Chris Jennings, so don’t draft Harrison as anything more than a RB3.

Dexter McCluster – In a roster move that probably got swept under the rug by most people, WR Jerheme Urban was placed on the IR this past week. This news is significant because Urban was supposed to be McCluster’s competition for touches out of the slot. Now, the lightning bug out of Ole Miss should see the field every time the Chiefs go three-wide. More use out of the slot should mean more production in the passing game, which may also affect the amount of use he gets out of the backfield as HC Todd Haley is cognizant of not overusing the 5-8, 170-pounder. As a result of all the increased work I expect him to get in the passing game, I believe McCluster is now a solid 11th or 12th-round value in both PPR and non-PPR. As I have it mapped out in my mind, more work out of the slot should mean less work out of the backfield for the rookie, which should come as good news for Jamaal Charles’ owners. Since their games are somewhat similar, there was a growing belief that McCluster would steal some fantasy value from Charles, but in theory, that should no longer be the case.

Jabar Gaffney – I’m still not sure I understand what the Broncos are doing from a personnel standpoint, but one thing is for sure: Gaffney’s stock has been on the rise all summer long. The latest bump to his stock was the loss of Brandon Stokley to IR, which subtracts a WR capable of catching 30-40 passes from the slot. I’ll admit looking back that my 40-catch prediction for Stokley was probably too high, but the fact of the matter is that when he is healthy, he is a solid veteran target for QB Kyle Orton. With Stokley now lost and rookie Demaryius Thomas a complete question mark (as far as his healthy return), the season is shaping up quite nicely for Gaffney and even Eddie Royal. In my estimation, Gaffney is now a serviceable WR3 play in all 12-team leagues while Royal will probably be a good spot starter in PPR formats.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh / Mike Williams (SEA) – There’s more than meets the eye here. Very few will question that Houshmandzadeh ever was a WR1, but facts are facts: he caught 79 passes last season on a team that couldn’t protect the QB. He obviously can still get open a little bit, so let’s not quite call the veteran “washed up” just yet. As is the case with most personnel moves – in this case Housh signing with Baltimore – there are likely winners (Williams, QB Joe Flacco) and probable losers (Derrick Mason, Todd Heap). Since the time he dominated college football at USC, we’ve all known Williams has a great deal of talent. Did his old college coach – new HC Pete Carroll – come along just at the right time? Considering Deion Branch is always a poor bet to stay healthy and Deon Butler is safely entrenched as the WR3 in Seattle right now ahead of rookie Golden Tate, it’s not out of the question that Williams finishes second behind TE John Carlson in receptions this season. It should go without saying that adding a sure-handed WR like Housh only increases Flacco’s value, but whose value does it hurt more? Here’s how I see it – Anquan Boldin is a good bet to miss some games every year; in those games, Houshmandzadeh will be asked to fill in. Despite being a bit older, Mason is a better receiver than Houshmandzadeh and will maintain his starting role. While I think both Mason and Boldin give up a few catches, I believe the biggest loser here is Heap. The Ravens’ starting TE is no longer a vertical threat and essentially performs the same functions Houshmandzadeh does in the short passing game, which makes me wonder if Heap goes back to his blocking role of 2008.

As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big Board" in your attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2010.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a couple of key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous. No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end more fantasy championship dreams than they help.

Note: As I did last week, I’ve submitted a pair of 175-player Big Boards for your review, with no defenses or kickers mixed in. Again, I will let you – the fantasy owner – decide at what point you should select your kicker and defense, although I don’t mind grabbing my defense in the 12th or 13th round of a 16-round draft when I feel really good about the team I have drafted to that point and the schedule suggests there is a team that is in line to have an incredible year on defense. (This year, that team is the Niners, in my opinion.) The entire color-coding system from my PSAs to the Big Boards is briefly explained below and doubles as an easy reference tool for the entire season and not just Weeks 14-16.

Key:
OR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
AVG – Fantasy points/game
TOT – Total fantasy points scored
V – Volatility
(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Color coding – Green (good matchup), red (bad matchup), black (bye week) and no color qualifies as a neutral matchup.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players:

 PPR Big Board
OR PR Pos Player V AVG TOT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 23.9 358
2 2 RB Chris Johnson - 23.8 333
3 3 RB Ray Rice 22.3 334
4 4 RB Adrian Peterson 21.3 320
5 5 RB Frank Gore 20.8 291
6 1 QB Aaron Rodgers 27.6 414
7 1 WR Andre Johnson 20.0 300
8 6 RB Steven Jackson 20.0 301
9 2 WR Randy Moss 19.0 285
10 7 RB Michael Turner 17.0 256
11 2 QB Drew Brees 24.4 366
12 3 WR Calvin Johnson 19.2 269
13 4 WR Roddy White 18.5 278
14 5 WR Miles Austin 17.7 265
15 8 RB DeAngelo Williams 16.4 247
16 9 RB Jamaal Charles + 18.8 283
17 3 QB Peyton Manning 23.5 352
18 10 RB Arian Foster ^ 17.5 245
19 4 QB Tony Romo + 24.0 360
20 6 WR Reggie Wayne 17.3 260
21 7 WR Marques Colston 17.3 259
22 11 RB Jahvid Best + 15.7 220
23 8 WR Brandon Marshall 17.2 258
24 9 WR Steve Smith (CAR) 17.5 263
25 10 WR Dwayne Bowe + 17.8 267
26 11 WR Greg Jennings 16.2 243
27 5 QB Tom Brady 21.6 324
28 12 RB Ryan Mathews 14.3 215
29 13 RB Rashard Mendenhall - 15.1 227
30 12 WR Larry Fitzgerald 15.2 229
31 13 WR Anquan Boldin 18.2 237
32 14 RB Pierre Thomas 15.8 206
33 15 RB Cedric Benson 14.8 192
34 16 RB Shonn Greene !/+ 15.9 175
35 17 RB Ryan Grant 14.2 213
36 18 RB Matt Forte + 15.0 225
37 19 RB Knowshon Moreno + 14.5 218
38 20 RB LeSean McCoy - 15.0 225
39 21 RB Jonathan Stewart 13.9 209
40 14 WR Steve Smith (NYG) 15.6 234
41 6 QB Matt Schaub 21.8 328
42 1 TE Jermichael Finley ^ 17.4 261
43 2 TE Antonio Gates 16.8 252
44 3 TE Vernon Davis 16.2 244
45 4 TE Brent Celek + 16.1 241
46 5 TE Jason Witten + 15.8 238
47 7 QB Joe Flacco + 19.3 289
48 6 TE Dallas Clark 15.2 229
49 22 RB Joseph Addai - 13.9 209
50 15 WR DeSean Jackson ! 14.9 224
51 7 TE Tony Gonzalez 14.9 223
52 8 QB Philip Rivers - 18.8 281
53 23 RB Ricky Williams + 14.3 215
54 24 RB C.J. Spiller + 13.1 196
55 25 RB Reggie Bush 14.4 187
56 9 QB Jay Cutler - 20.9 314
57 26 RB Chris Wells !/+ 12.9 193
58 16 WR Hines Ward 15.3 229
59 17 WR Michael Crabtree 14.1 212
60 18 WR Mike Wallace ^ 14.5 218
61 19 WR Hakeem Nicks + 14.2 213
62 20 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 15.0 211
63 21 WR Wes Welker ! 14.7 191
64 22 WR Johnny Knox ^ 14.2 213
65 23 WR Chad Ochocinco 14.8 222
66 24 WR Percy Harvin !/+ 15.6 219
67 25 WR Terrell Owens 14.7 221
68 27 RB Michael Bush !/+ 13.8 207
69 28 RB Cadillac Williams 13.7 192
70 29 RB Ahmad Bradshaw + 13.2 185
71 30 RB Ronnie Brown - 13.1 157
72 31 RB Jerome Harrison + 14.0 210
73 32 RB Marion Barber 11.9 178
74 26 WR Malcom Floyd 12.9 194
75 27 WR Jeremy Maclin 13.1 197
76 8 TE Zach Miller (OAK) 14.0 210
77 33 RB Tim Hightower 13.3 200
78 34 RB LaDainian Tomlinson 11.8 165
79 35 RB Felix Jones - 12.3 160
80 36 RB Brandon Jacobs - 12.2 171
81 37 RB Fred Jackson 9.5 143
82 9 TE Chris Cooley 14.6 219
83 10 QB Matthew Stafford ^ 18.6 279
84 11 QB Matt Ryan 18.2 273
85 12 QB Kevin Kolb ! 19.1 287
86 13 QB Carson Palmer 19.3 289
87 14 QB Ben Roethlisberger + 18.6 204
88 28 WR Santana Moss 13.1 196
89 29 WR Derrick Mason 14.3 215
90 30 WR Donald Driver - 12.5 188
91 31 WR Devin Hester + 13.1 196
92 38 RB Clinton Portis 11.1 166
93 10 TE John Carlson 13.2 198
94 15 QB Eli Manning 17.5 263
95 16 QB Donovan McNabb 18.1 236
96 32 WR Jabar Gaffney + 13.0 195
97 33 WR Mike Williams (TB) !/^ 11.7 176
98 34 WR Nate Burleson 11.9 179
99 35 WR Devin Aromashodu + 11.2 168
100 11 TE Owen Daniels ! 12.2 183
101 12 TE Kellen Winslow - 12.1 181
102 39 RB Donald Brown + 10.2 153
103 40 RB Justin Forsett + 10.7 161
104 36 WR Mohamed Massaquoi 10.3 155
105 41 RB Darren McFadden - 10.4 136
106 37 WR Bernard Berrian 10.8 162
107 38 WR Pierre Garcon - 10.2 153
108 39 WR Dez Bryant ^ 10.5 158
109 40 WR Robert Meachem ! 10.9 164
110 42 RB Thomas Jones + 8.8 133
111 43 RB Bernard Scott + 9.1 128
112 44 RB Steve Slaton 8.7 131
113 41 WR Jerricho Cotchery 12.5 188
114 42 WR Lee Evans 10.5 158
115 43 WR Santonio Holmes !/+ 13.5 148 +
116 17 QB Brett Favre ! 16.6 249
117 13 TE Heath Miller 10.3 154
118 14 TE Visanthe Shiancoe 10.3 155
119 44 WR Chris Chambers 11.7 175
120 45 WR Jacoby Jones ^ 10.7 161
121 46 WR Austin Collie - 10.6 159
122 47 WR Steve Breaston 9.8 147
123 48 WR Louis Murphy + 10.0 151
124 15 TE Dustin Keller 9.2 138
125 45 RB Leon Washington 8.7 131
126 18 QB Alex Smith 17.2 257
127 19 QB David Garrard 17.4 261
128 20 QB Josh Freeman + 17.6 264
129 46 RB Darren Sproles 9.0 135
130 47 RB Kareem Huggins + 8.5 127
131 48 RB Tashard Choice + 5.8 87
132 49 RB Willis McGahee - 6.2 93
133 49 WR Legedu Naanee + 9.4 141
134 50 WR Mike Thomas + 10.6 159
135 51 WR Dexter McCluster + 9.7 146
136 16 TE Tony Scheffler ^ 8.9 134
137 52 WR Davone Bess 10.0 150
138 53 WR Eddie Royal + 10.4 156
139 54 WR Julian Edelman ^ 8.9 134
140 55 WR Danny Amendola 9.6 144
141 56 WR Kevin Walter 9.2 139
142 50 RB Fred Taylor - 9.1 100
143 51 RB Peyton Hillis + 8.4 126
144 52 RB Chester Taylor 8.4 126
145 53 RB Correll Buckhalter 6.5 98
146 54 RB Marshawn Lynch !/^ 4.5 67
147 17 TE Todd Heap - 8.0 120
148 18 TE Jermaine Gresham + 7.6 114
149 21 QB Matt Cassel + 16.8 252
150 22 QB Chad Henne 15.4 231
151 23 QB Vince Young 16.2 243
152 57 WR Sidney Rice ! 7.8 117
153 58 WR Lance Moore 9.1 137
154 59 WR Vincent Jackson ! 17.2 155
155 60 WR Laurent Robinson !/+ 11.8 130
156 55 RB Anthony Dixon 3.9 59
157 56 RB Jason Snelling 5.4 82
158 61 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 8.0 121
159 62 WR Brian Hartline 8.6 129
160 19 TE Greg Olsen ! 6.3 94
161 20 TE Jeremy Shockey 7.3 110
162 21 TE Kevin Boss 6.7 100
163 22 TE Fred Davis + 6.6 100
164 63 WR Josh Cribbs + 6.9 104
165 64 WR Anthony Gonzalez + 6.2 81
166 65 WR Sammie Stroughter 8.3 125
167 23 TE Anthony Fasano 6.5 98
168 24 TE Marcedes Lewis 5.9
169 24 QB Jason Campbell 15.5 233
170 25 QB Kyle Orton - 14.9 224
171 66 WR Braylon Edwards 6.4 96
172 67 WR Kenny Britt - 9.0 136
173 68 WR Early Doucet 8.6 129
174 57 RB Javon Ringer 4.1 62
175 58 RB Larry Johnson 8.4 126

General impressions: As much as I want to, I can’t bring myself to move Gore ahead of Rice and Peterson. With only one defense on the schedule (Green Bay, Week 13) that rates as an above-average run-stopping unit, the table is set for Gore to have career best numbers across the board. If you are looking for a potential good sign, the one season Gore stayed healthy and gave his owners over 2,000 total yards was 2006 – the last time San Francisco faced both the NFC and AFC West. For those owners who don’t mind taking a chance with Gore’s injury history, they have the chance to land the potential No. 1 overall RB in fantasy this season with the No. 5 or No. 6 overall pick.

Over the past week, I have fielded several questions from readers regarding Steven Jackson. Without getting too long-winded, his fantasy situation isn’t much different from Gore’s, albeit with a much less talented supporting cast. Yes, Jackson has a checkered durability record just like Gore, but understand that Jackson showed a great deal of pain tolerance last season playing with his back injury which eventually required surgery. At 244 pounds and carrying just five-percent body fat, he truly is a physical marvel. If Sam Bradford represents even the slightest upgrade to the passing attack and the defense is just a bit improved over last season, Jackson becomes a 2,000-total yard back with an ability to score 10 times. I’m not suggesting it will happen, just that it could.

Let’s talk drafting strategy for a second: if you play in a 12-team league (especially in those where all TDs count for six fantasy points), do yourself and your fellow owners a big favor and make sure that the Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew owner doesn’t have a chance at landing one of the top three QBs. In particular, I’m talking about Peyton Manning, who can sometimes be had at the end of the second round. There aren’t many bad feelings when it comes to fantasy football, but one of them is the weekend where you have to face a combo that has the potential to be the best QB and RB in fantasy. When you really have an owner that knows what he/she is doing at the top of the draft when Manning falls into his/her lap, then the third-round pick will be a legit WR1 candidate (a Colston/Jennings type), the fourth will be a Gates/Finley type and the fifth will either be another stud WR (Bowe?) or solid RB2 (Moreno/Stewart). If you are drafting at the top, make sure you are “that guy” and if you are not, make sure you aren’t one of the owners contributing to “that guy’s” checkbook.

Speaking of drafting strategy, I’ve seen an approach this season I’m not sure I have ever seen (or at least ever noticed) before – owners landing multiple Tier 1 or Tier 2 TEs. Part of that is due to the number of capable TEs we now have in fantasy, but I was shocked to discover last week that I have Finley projected for the same amount of fantasy points as Reggie Wayne! (And no, I’m not backing off that prediction either.) Considering WR has been and will continue to be a deeper position in fantasy than TE, a two-round gap between the go-to players on these passing offenses is too much. As always, I’m aware that my projections are not foolproof, but it makes all the sense in the world to me to grab Finley in the fourth and come back with someone like Gates or Davis (who I have in Greg Jennings territory) in the fifth or Gonzalez (who I have on par with Ochocinco) in the sixth as your flex player. This strategy achieves multiple objectives: 1) it cuts down the elite TE pool quickly and may force owners to reach at the position, 2) it provides solid production from a flex spot that usually occupies either a committee RB or lower-end WR2, 3) ensures solid coverage from the position during a bye week and 4) gives owners a unique trade chip at a position where someone may be forced to start the unpredictable John Carlson or the limited (at least early in the season) Owen Daniels. Another potential TE1, Kellen Winslow, has never been a model of health either.

Welker’s admission to the Boston Globe this past week that his surgically-repaired knee “doesn’t feel the same” shouldn’t have come as a great shock to anyone, which is one reason I wasn’t willing to go any higher than #21 among receivers in PPR. The mere fact that he has been able to take the field and even come close to resembling his old self should be commended. But in just about every draft I’ve been involved in, he has been selected as a fantasy team’s top WR. This means owners are expecting (not hoping) that he returns to his 100-catch ways right away. While recoveries from ACL surgeries are happening quicker than ever, I cannot imagine a scenario in which Welker regains enough trust in his knee to make the same cuts that made him a nightmare cover for defenses at any point this season.

We began with Gore above, so it is only appropriate that we end with his backup. If you are thinking I am talking about Brian Westbrook, I am not. Anthony Dixon led the NFL in rushing during the preseason, but it is what HC Mike Singletary told CSN Bay Area this past weekend that should have the rookie on your radar. "When you have a guy like that, there's going to be a role," Singletary said. "What it is, right now, it will define itself. But when you have a guy who has talent like that, you'll find a role." Maybe Gore stays healthy all season long, but he’s missed 1-2 games in four of the five seasons he has been in the league. Since just about everybody in your league should know that Gore has a history of missing time, Dixon represents a semi-valuable trade chip that can be acquired in the late rounds. And in the event that Gore is actually sidelined for a longer amount of time, Dixon would instantly become a top-20 fantasy RB.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OR PR Pos Player V AVG TOT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Chris Johnson - 20 281
2 2 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 19.6 294
3 3 RB Adrian Peterson 18.2 274
4 4 RB Ray Rice 18.3 274
5 1 QB Aaron Rodgers 27.6 414
6 5 RB Frank Gore 17.7 248
7 6 RB Michael Turner 16 241
8 2 QB Drew Brees 24.4 366
9 1 WR Randy Moss 13.3 200
10 2 WR Andre Johnson 13.2 199
11 7 RB Steven Jackson 16 241
12 3 QB Peyton Manning 23.5 352
13 3 WR Calvin Johnson 13.5 189
14 4 WR Roddy White 12.9 194
15 5 WR Miles Austin 11.9 179
16 6 WR Reggie Wayne 11.7 175
17 8 RB Jamaal Charles + 15.3 230
18 9 RB DeAngelo Williams 14.6 219
19 7 WR Marques Colston 12.1 181
20 10 RB Arian Foster ^ 14.9 208
21 4 QB Tony Romo + 24 360
22 11 RB Cedric Benson 13.5 175
23 13 RB Rashard Mendenhall - 13 195
24 12 RB Ryan Mathews 12.9 194
25 5 QB Tom Brady 21.6 324
26 14 RB Shonn Greene !/+ 15.2 168
27 15 RB Pierre Thomas 13.5 176
28 16 RB Jahvid Best + 12.8 180
29 17 RB Ryan Grant 12.4 187
30 8 WR Steve Smith (CAR) 12.1 181
31 6 QB Matt Schaub 21.8 328
32 18 RB Jonathan Stewart 12.5 188
33 19 RB Matt Forte + 12 180
34 9 WR Brandon Marshall 11.6 174
35 10 WR Greg Jennings 11.4 171
36 11 WR Dwayne Bowe + 11.8 177
37 12 WR Larry Fitzgerald 10.4 156
38 13 WR Anquan Boldin 12.2 159
39 20 RB Knowshon Moreno + 11.8 178
40 21 RB Chris Wells !/+ 11.6 174
41 1 TE Jermichael Finley ^ 12 180
42 2 TE Antonio Gates 11 166
43 22 RB Ricky Williams + 12.1 181
44 23 RB Joseph Addai - 10.9 164
45 24 RB Ronnie Brown - 11.9 143
46 7 QB Joe Flacco + 19.3 289
47 8 QB Philip Rivers - 18.8 281
48 3 TE Vernon Davis 10.7 161
49 25 RB Michael Bush !/+ 12.3 184
50 26 RB LeSean McCoy - 11.4 172
51 4 TE Brent Celek + 10.2 153
52 5 TE Jason Witten + 10 150
53 6 TE Dallas Clark 9.7 146
54 7 TE Tony Gonzalez 9.4 141
55 14 WR Percy Harvin !/+ 10.8 151
56 15 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 10 141
57 16 WR DeSean Jackson ! 10 151
58 17 WR Hines Ward 9.9 148
59 18 WR Michael Crabtree 9.1 136
60 9 QB Jay Cutler - 20.9 314
61 19 WR Terrell Owens 9.9 149
62 20 WR Chad Ochocinco 9.9 149
63 21 WR Mike Wallace ^ 9.8 148
64 22 WR Steve Smith (NYG) 9.7 146
65 23 WR Johnny Knox ^ 9.6 144
66 27 RB Reggie Bush 10.8 141
67 28 RB Ahmad Bradshaw + 11.4 160
68 29 RB Jerome Harrison + 11.1 166
69 30 RB Cadillac Williams 11.4 160
70 31 RB C.J. Spiller + 9.5 142
71 24 WR Hakeem Nicks + 9.5 142
72 10 QB Matthew Stafford ^ 18.6 279
73 11 QB Matt Ryan 18.2 273
74 12 QB Kevin Kolb - 19.1 287
75 32 RB Marion Barber 10.4 156
76 33 RB Tim Hightower 10.1 151
77 34 RB Brandon Jacobs - 11 154
78 35 RB LaDainian Tomlinson 9.8 137
79 36 RB Felix Jones - 10.2 133
80 26 WR Malcom Floyd 8.9 133
81 27 WR Jeremy Maclin 8.9 134
82 28 WR Devin Hester + 8.9 133
83 8 TE Zach Miller (OAK) 8.9 134
84 13 QB Carson Palmer 19.3 289
85 14 QB Ben Roethlisberger + 18.6 204
86 29 WR Wes Welker ! 8.8 115
87 37 RB Clinton Portis 9.1 137
88 38 RB Fred Jackson 7.9 118
89 39 RB Donald Brown + 8.9 133
90 30 WR Santana Moss 8.4 126
91 31 WR Donald Driver - 8.1 122
92 9 TE Chris Cooley 8.9 134
93 40 RB Justin Forsett + 8.6 130
94 32 WR Derrick Mason 9.3 139
95 41 RB Darren McFadden - 7.7 100
96 33 WR Mike Williams (TB) !/^ 8.1 122
97 34 WR Nate Burleson 7.7 116
98 35 WR Jabar Gaffney + 8.3 125
99 36 WR Devin Aromashodu + 7.2 108
100 15 QB Donovan McNabb 18.1 236
101 16 QB Eli Manning 17.5 263
102 10 TE John Carlson 8.3 125
103 37 WR Santonio Holmes !/+ 9.3 102
104 38 WR Pierre Garcon - 7.3 110
105 42 RB Thomas Jones + 7.7 116
106 17 QB Brett Favre ! 16.6 249
107 39 WR Jacoby Jones ^ 7.7 116
108 40 WR Dez Bryant ^ 6.8 103
109 41 WR Jerricho Cotchery 8.2 123
110 42 WR Robert Meachem ! 7.6 115
111 43 WR Lee Evans 7.1 106
112 11 TE Owen Daniels ! 8 121
113 43 RB Bernard Scott + 7.1 100
114 44 RB Kareem Huggins + 6.7 101
115 45 RB Leon Washington 6.7 100
116 46 RB Willis McGahee - 5.6 85
117 44 WR Chris Chambers 7.9 119
118 45 WR Bernard Berrian 7 105
119 46 WR Austin Collie - 6.6 100
120 47 RB Fred Taylor - 7.9 87
121 47 WR Steve Breaston + 6.1 92
122 48 WR Louis Murphy + 6.4 97
123 49 WR Mohamed Massaquoi 6.6 99
124 50 WR Josh Cribbs + 7.5 113
125 12 TE Kellen Winslow - 6.9 104
126 13 TE Visanthe Shiancoe 6.8 102
127 14 TE Heath Miller 6.7 100
128 48 RB Tashard Choice + 4.7 71
129 49 RB Steve Slaton 5.9 89
130 51 WR Eddie Royal + 6.5 98
131 18 QB David Garrard 17.4 261
132 19 QB Alex Smith 17.2 257
133 20 QB Josh Freeman + 17.6 264
134 52 WR Mike Thomas ^ 6.6 99
135 53 WR Dexter McCluster + 6.4 96
136 54 WR Legedu Naanee + 6.3 95
137 50 RB Peyton Hillis + 6.8 102
138 55 WR Vincent Jackson ! 12.1 109
139 56 WR Laurent Robinson !/+ 7.6 84
140 57 WR Julian Edelman ^ 5.1 77
141 58 WR Kevin Walter 5.9 89
142 15 TE Tony Scheffler ^ 5.8 87
143 16 TE Dustin Keller 5.6 85
144 59 WR Sidney Rice ! 5.2 78
145 51 RB Larry Johnson 7.4 111
146 52 RB Chester Taylor 6.5 98
147 53 RB Darren Sproles 6.2 93
148 54 RB Marshawn Lynch !/^ 3.6 54
149 55 RB Correll Buckhalter 5.4 81
150 56 RB Jason Snelling 4 60
151 57 RB Kevin Smith 4.2 63
152 58 RB Mike Bell 4.7 71
153 60 WR Danny Amendola 5.8 87
154 61 WR Lance Moore 5.7 85
155 21 QB Matt Cassel + 16.8 252
156 22 QB Vince Young 16.2 243
157 62 WR Davone Bess 5.6 84
158 63 WR Brian Hartline 5.3 80
159 64 WR Nate Washington 5.3 79
160 65 WR Mike Williams (SEA) !/+ 5.6 84
161 23 QB Jason Campbell 15.5 233
162 24 QB Chad Henne 15.4 231
163 66 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 5 76
164 25 QB Kyle Orton - 14.9 224
165 26 QB Matt Moore 15.1 227
166 67 WR Devery Henderson 4.4 67
167 68 WR Braylon Edwards 4.6 70
168 17 TE Todd Heap - 5.1 77
169 18 TE Jermaine Gresham + 5.1 76
170 19 TE Jeremy Shockey 4.6 69
171 69 WR Roy Williams - 4.8 67
172 70 WR Sammie Stroughter 5.4 81
173 71 WR Anthony Gonzalez + 4.1 54
174 72 WR Kenny Britt + 6 90
175 73 WR Roscoe Parrish 4.1 62

My opinion of Foster continues to grow week after week. Of course, some of it has to do with what he did in the preseason and some of it has to do with what his coach has said about him (“Arian’s becoming a hell of a football player,”). But as is usually the case in fantasy, much of the buzz Foster is generating has to do with his situation, which has seen one hot-shot rookie (Ben Tate) lost for the season and his veteran teammate (Steve Slaton) sidelined with turf toe – an injury that tends to linger. Slaton, as of September 4, is expected to suit up for the season opener, but there is next-to-no chance that he will be useful for fantasy purposes in any way before the Texans’ Week 7 bye. Therefore, turf toe should be a big reason why Foster could push 40 receptions. Granted, the catches don’t count in non-PPR, but the extra yards he’ll get as a result of playing about 85-90% of the snaps will only lead to more yards and maybe another score or two. I have predicted a monster season for him now, including 10 TDs in my 15-game projection. As long as he can hold up all season long, he should easily match – if not surpass – his current ADP of 4.03.

In addition to Foster, allow me to become one of the drivers for the Dwayne Bowe bandwagon. Attending Larry Fitzgerald’s summer camp opened my eyes in terms of how ready he is to put last year’s disappointing season by him. It also gave HC Todd Haley the confidence he needed in Bowe, calling the WR “one of our most dependable players”. Fantasy owners should be able to say the same thing about him regarding their team at the end of this season as well. I think that Bowe is primed for his best year yet, so it would not surprise me to see him climb into the top 5-8 WRs when all is said and done. I had him projected for WR1 numbers before, but the loss of Urban to IR gave Bowe’s numbers another boost (along with Chambers and McCluster’s), meaning a 90-100 catch season is not out of reach.

I started out the preseason with low expectations for Kolb as the Eagles were suggesting they would use Michael Vick more this year since he was recapturing some of his old magic. As the preseason moved on, I allowed myself to think about Kolb’s offensive weapons, thereby enabling him to crawl up the Big Board. So, after a month of seeing his stock peak and valley, I will settle on him as the last starting QB in 12-team leagues. In fact, if you have already drafted and he is your starting QB, do your best to move him for someone like Rivers or Flacco. The sad thing is that in fantasy, sometimes we have to separate what we see (a more accurate QB than McNabb who I believe as a little Aaron Rodgers in him) from what is really happening (Vick getting snaps in the red zone for a team that is perennially bad inside the 20).

Much as I adjusted the numbers for Bowe, Chambers and McCluster above following the roster move that put Urban on IR, the same had to be done when Brandon Stokley landed on IR in Denver. Unfortunately, the Broncos’ fantasy picture is a mess at WR, with only Gaffney being assured of much for fantasy purposes. Fortunately for his bottom line, I believe the loss of Stokley will drive his non-PPR stock into WR3, if not low-end WR2 territory. Demaryius Thomas won’t be taking important snaps anytime soon after missing virtually the entire preseason. Eric Decker and Eddie Royal may be worth spot starts from time to time, but the early part of the season should serve as the on-ramp to Gaffney’s drive for a potential career year.

We’ll cap off this portion of the article by talking a bit about John Carlson, who will undoubtedly become Matt Hasselbeck’s top target in the passing game. Yes, the West Coast version of Mike Williams has suddenly become fantasy relevant, but anyone expected TJ Houshmandzadeh numbers from Williams or Deion Branch are kidding themselves. Seattle’s skill level on offense is now on par with the Rams’ (if not worse), which will probably make Carlson’s fantasy contributions inconsistent this season. But if the acquisition of a free agent TE (Chris Baker) and drafting of another (Anthony McCoy) – players whose best asset is blocking – along with the release of Houshmandzadeh doesn’t make Carlson the featured receiver in this offense, I don’t know what will.

 Kickers
Rk Pos Player FPts XP FG
1 K Mason Crosby 136 49 29
2 K Stephen Gostkowski 133 40 31
3 K David Akers 129 39 30
4 K Nate Kaeding 129 39 30
5 K Lawrence Tynes 126 39 29
6 K Ryan Longwell 122 38 28
7 K David Buehler 119 47 24
8 K Rob Bironas 118 34 28
9 K Garrett Hartley 118 46 24
10 K Matt Bryant 118 40 26
11 K Nick Folk 117 36 27
12 K Jeff Reed 117 39 26
13 K Robbie Gould 114 39 25
14 K Neil Rackers 114 36 26
15 K Mike Nugent 112 37 25
16 K John Kasay 112 40 24
17 K Dan Carpenter 111 39 24
18 K Ryan Succop 111 36 25
19 K Joe Nedney 110 35 25
20 K Jay Feely 109 34 25

Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks

 Defense/Special Teams
Rk D/ST FPts PA Sk TO TD Bon   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 49ers DST 181 180 43 58 30 50                                  
2 Steelers DST 176 185 50 54 30 42                                  
3 Packers DST 160 265 43 60 36 21                                  
4 Bengals DST 154 238 40 58 30 26                                  
5 Saints D/ST 150 297 36 72 30 12                                  
6 Jets D/ST 149 200 42 48 12 47                                  
7 Vikings DST 145 299 48 56 30 11                                  
8 Eagles DST 143 293 38 56 30 19                                  
9 Raiders DST 139 233 36 58 12 33                                  
10 Colts D/ST 138 258 36 56 24 22                                  
11 Cowboys DST 129 251 42 44 18 25                                  
12 Dolphins DST 129 256 34 54 18 23                                  
13 Ravens DST 129 298 40 50 24 15                                  
14 Giants DST 126 296 44 44 24 14                                  
15 Bears DST 117 322 35 52 24 6                                  
16 Redskins DST 103 282 30 38 18 17                                  

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.