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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Projections - AFC & NFC West
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/7/12

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

If the preseason is beginning, it can mean only one thing: my initial division-by-division projections must be coming to an end. Sad as that may be for many of my loyal readers, it does mean that my favorite part of my summer writing schedule is just around the corner.

All the fantasy football information in the world is meaningless unless it can be put to use in one handy draft-day tool, which I refer to as “The Big Boards”. I have enjoyed a great amount of success since I began using this system back in 2008 and, based on the e-mails I receive throughout the year, it appears many others have experienced similar success. However, I’d be the first to admit that even with the best draft-day tools at your disposal, much of fantasy football is won by the moves owners make following their drafts.

But before we can get there, we need to resolve the here and now. And this week, that means we will take our fourth and final look at my game-by-game breakdown of each division. Before digesting my latest round of projections, feel free to review my thoughts and forecasts for the AFC and NFC East as well as the AFC and NFC North and AFC and NFC South. I feel it is important to note that I do not use this forecasting method to justify taking a very good player over an elite player. Since the most elite player in just about every sport is what we like to call “matchup-proof”, there is often no reason to move them down a draft board in the first place. The trick is understanding there are few true matchup-proof players, so winning a league can often come down to which fantasy team’s non-elite players perform better and that is truly where I believe using Preseason Matchup Analysis helps the most.

****One perfect example of the reason I believe in my method of evaluation just before press time this week with the late-breaking news of Terrell Owens signing in Seattle. On the downside, entire team projections must change (which requires a lot of time as noted in past columns). The upshot to that is that while other prognosticators simply write in 60-900-6 as Owens’ projection for the season, I have to actually consider such factors as increased pass-to-run ratio, players that benefit the most/least from his presence and what kind of defensive matchups he should anticipate for the upcoming season. The fact that I am forced to consider such variables after a high-profile transaction is a good thing. I will always trade spare time for accuracy when it comes to projecting players because it usually pays off in the end.

For those of us in high-stakes leagues, we know consistent success in this hobby is difficult. By extension, this fact means the preparation necessary to claim the grand prize or championship each season consists of more than casually eyeballing a player’s season totals and assigning him a number. The method I choose to use – painstakingly predicting each individual matchup during the fantasy season – takes into account the requisite factors such as a player’s talent, supporting cast, scheme, injury history and age in much the same way every other fantasy owner and/or analyst does. I believe the key difference with my projection system offers is that I actually account for the likelihood that a safety like Oakland’s Tyvon Branch will be matched up primarily with Rob Gronkowski (it’s a matchup Branch won rather handily last season) or how often the Jets’ Darrelle Revis matches up against Wes Welker (it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think).

In short, I am not using a team’s schedule as my only means to project (and ultimately rank) a player. Forecasting the season using Preseason Matchup Analysis takes me almost three weeks to complete and needs to be updated regularly as new information becomes available throughout the preseason. It is part of a much bigger picture that starts in early June that doesn’t really end until I submit my final Big Board in early September. Since the goal of this hobby is winning the fantasy title, my emphasis is on securing as many good matchups during the regular season (and particularly the fantasy playoffs) as possible. While I will not suggest there is a huge difference between the Broncos and Chargers’ defenses this season, it is the likely matchups within the game that often determine how the fantasy-point pie is distributed. I do know that I’d prefer that my running back is facing the Panthers and not the Ravens or Steelers during the most important time of the season. For receivers and quarterbacks, I’ll take my chances against the Lions’ secondary and do my best to avoid the Jets. When you get right down to it, my method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the fantasy postseason – a time when there is usually very little separating each of the remaining playoff teams.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. By now, you should be familiar with my color-coded family. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

Grey– Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this…here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

  1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

  2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another. I also feel obligated to mention that players with minimal projections (such as less than 100 yards rushing or receiving) will be excluded from this four-week series but have been accounted for in my overall projections.

  3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

  4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR
.

AFC West

 Denver Broncos
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PIT ATL HOU OAK NE SD bye NO CIN CAR SD KC TB OAK BAL CLE
QB Peyton Manning 36 21.3 21.3 319.1 319.1 4290 275 285 250 295 385 325 360 295 250 290 215 270 325 210 260
TD 29 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 2
INT 14 1 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 2 1
Ru Yards 15 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Willis McGahee 30 12.8 11.5 192.5 172.5 1015 45 55 60 80 65 70 100 75 85 55 65 85 65 35 75
Ru TD 10 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 1
Re Yards 110 0 5 10 0 15 10 5 10 15 0 5 15 10 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 20 0 1 2 0 2 2 1 2 2 0 1 3 1 2 1
RB Ronnie Hillman 20 8.7 5.5 130 83 315 15 10 10 20 25 15 15 20 55 15 25 15 20 15 40
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 335 15 15 20 35 45 10 50 10 20 15 20 25 25 15 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 47 3 2 3 5 6 2 5 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 2
RB Lance Ball 27 2.7 2.2 40.5 32.5 210 15 20 15 10 0 20 10 15 0 30 15 15 20 10 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 55 0 5 5 0 0 5 10 5 0 10 0 5 10 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0
WR Demaryius Thomas 24 16.3 11.3 212 147 990 70 50 35 130 85 110 140 85 50 INJ INJ 75 85 35 40
Re TD 8 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0
Rec 65 5 4 3 7 5 6 8 5 5 INJ INJ 5 6 3 3
WR Eric Decker 25 17 11 255.5 165.5 1175 65 70 90 45 110 85 105 65 85 110 75 85 75 50 60
Re TD 8 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1
Rec 90 4 6 6 3 8 6 10 5 5 8 6 7 6 5 5
WR Brandon Stokley 36 5.3 3 69.5 39.5 335 25 40 20 15 25 30 INJ INJ 40 25 30 10 25 15 35
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30 2 4 2 1 2 3 INJ INJ 3 2 3 1 2 2 3
WR Andre Caldwell 27 3.8 2.4 56.5 36.5 245 40 20 15 0 0 15 10 35 10 10 25 25 15 0 25
Re TD 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 20 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 0 2
TE Jacob Tamme 27 10.6 6.2 158.5 93.5 695 45 70 30 55 55 60 40 55 30 50 45 20 35 50 55
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 65 4 7 4 4 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 2 3 5 5
TE Joel Dreessen 30 6.6 4.3 99 65 350 15 10 25 15 50 0 0 30 0 70 15 10 45 40 25
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 34 2 1 2 2 5 0 0 3 0 5 2 1 4 5 2

General overview: Long story short, the arrival of Peyton Manning makes just about every skill-position player on the Broncos relevant again, just one season after Tim Tebow struggled to keep more than one player involved (Demaryius Thomas). The most interesting dynamic in my mind, however, is to what degree OC Mike McCoy and the normally conservative HC John Fox will let Manning run his check-with-me offense as many expect he will. On one hand, neither coach has ever had anyone of Manning’s caliber as their quarterback. Then again, Fox’s teams have generally played things pretty close to the vest and based their offense on the running game. On the subject of running backs, Fox has typically employed a committee approach, but temporarily ditched that reputation in 2011 when Knowshon Moreno quickly fell out of favor and got injured. Many believe rookie Ronnie Hillman is poised for instant success in a Manning-led offense since he is a good receiver, but owners need to be wary of Fox’s deference to veterans, which would seem to make Willis McGahee a pretty good fantasy option for at least one more season. A similar dichotomy between perception and reality could also be occurring at receiver, where owners have been quick to label Thomas as the next big thing. While his talent is undeniable, it is quickly becoming obvious Manning knows he can trust Eric Decker. The third-year receiver worked out with Larry Fitzgerald in the offseason (which has been a very good thing for receivers in recent years) and is a superior route-runner. Considering the nature of Manning’s surgeries, it cannot simply be assumed he will simply return to form and throw picture-perfect passes 35-40 yards downfield (where Thomas, in theory, would excel more than Decker). Manning is no stranger to finding the tight end either, which makes the speculation that Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen will be used in the same fashion as the New England tight ends all the more interesting. The comparison is apt in the sense that Tamme is more like a receiver trapped in a tight end’s body (Aaron Hernandez) while Dreessen is the more prototypical tight end in terms of size and blocking ability (Rob Gronkowski), although it would be completely wrong to put either player into their respective class. Plan accordingly.

Matchup analysis: If Manning & Co. can somehow get off to a fast start, watch out. At the very least, three of the 5-6 most challenging defenses the Broncos will face all season will likely come in the first three weeks. Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston all have some combination of a superior pass rush, solid run defense, quality and quantity at cornerback and a scheme that can slow down both the running and passing game. After that initial three-week gauntlet, the passing game could be in for some clear sailing since Thomas and Decker have just one red between them over the final 12 games (Joe Haden will likely shadow Thomas in Week 16). Despite some potentially difficult matchups on the outside, Decker escapes any hint of red for the simple fact the Broncos will move him around and put him in the slot if/when necessary, allowing him a free release. With his size and route-running ability, it will be virtually impossible for opponents to stop him from collecting 5-6 catches per game. The story for the tight ends is similar to the one for the receivers in the sense that Tamme and Dreessen should not be hit too hard by the schedule. Just because the Broncos have already suggested that the tight end will be the first read on a number of plays this season doesn’t mean the defense will play it that way with the talent at receiver. As I touched on already, it will be interesting to see how Fox, McCoy and Manning decide to compromise their views on the running game. Will it be like it was in Indianapolis when the running game made an appearance only to salt away a game or will it be an early-down staple, like it usually is under Fox? The matchups suggest McGahee and, to a lesser degree, Hillman could put together some solid fantasy weeks over the last 12 games of the season.

 Kansas City Chiefs
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL BUF NO SD BAL TB bye OAK SD PIT CIN DEN CAR CLE OAK IND
QB Matt Cassel 30 16.6 16.6 232.4 232.4 3360 205 285 265 260 210 235 255 255 235 305 175 INJ 160 270 245
TD 20 1 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 0 INJ 2 2 2
INT 15 2 0 2 0 3 0 1 1 0 1 2 INJ 2 0 1
Ru Yards 80 5 5 10 10 5 0 10 0 5 5 10 INJ 5 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
QB Brady Quinn 27 10.3 10.3 20.6 20.6 240 45 195
TD 2 1 1
INT 1 0 1
Ru Yards 10 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0
RB Jamaal Charles 25 15.2 12.2 228.5 183.5 950 35 50 55 35 45 70 70 40 55 65 90 105 55 80 100
Ru TD 6 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 405 20 35 15 55 10 25 70 30 20 15 45 10 20 15 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45 3 4 2 6 2 2 4 4 2 3 5 1 2 2 3
RB Peyton Hillis 26 12.9 11.3 194 169 905 55 40 75 45 20 85 75 65 45 40 35 70 85 70 100
Ru TD 9 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 185 20 10 15 10 0 10 10 15 10 25 35 10 5 0 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 25 3 2 2 1 0 1 2 3 1 2 4 2 1 0 1
RB Dexter McCluster 24 4.6 3.2 59.5 41.5 130 0 10 5 25 0 20 10 INJ INJ 5 10 0 30 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 225 15 20 25 15 20 0 15 INJ INJ 5 50 15 0 45 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 2 2 3 1 2 0 1 INJ INJ 1 3 1 0 2 0
WR Dwayne Bowe 27 15.6 10 233.5 150.5 1085 70 75 85 60 65 105 75 50 65 105 20 90 35 75 110
Re TD 7 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 83 6 6 7 5 5 7 6 5 6 6 2 5 3 6 8
WR Steve Breaston 29 6.1 3.4 86 47 410 20 35 55 35 20 30 25 35 35 45 INJ 10 45 20 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 2 5 4 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 INJ 1 5 2 0
WR Jonathan Baldwin 23 9.1 6 136.5 90.5 665 30 50 30 20 45 20 35 80 55 70 45 60 25 45 55
Re TD 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 46 2 3 2 1 3 2 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 3 5
TE Tony Moeaki 25 10.4 6.7 114 74 440 25 40 30 55 30 45 25 30 40 INJ INJ INJ INJ 70 50
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ 1 1
Rec 40 2 4 3 5 3 4 2 3 3 INJ INJ INJ INJ 6 5
TE Kevin Boss 28 2.1 1.2 31.5 18.5 125 5 20 0 10 15 0 0 15 10 20 0 0 30 0 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 13 1 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 3 0 0

General overview: During this offseason, the Chiefs suggested their running backs will touch nearly 500 times this season. It seems like a rather large number, but keep in mind they accumulated 487 rushing attempts as a team last season, fifth-most in the league. For comparison’s sake, Kansas City attempted a league-high 556 rushes in 2010 with Thomas Jones grabbing 245 carries (259 touches) and Jamaal Charles securing 230 (275 touches). The underlying implication for a team to lean on its running backs that much is twofold: 1) the Chiefs really like what they have going with the recovering Jamaal Charles, free agent pickup Peyton Hillis and a potentially dominant offensive line and 2) the team believes Matt Cassel is a slightly above-average NFL quarterback at best. The main question, however, is Charles’ ability to reassume that kind of workload again following ACL surgery, especially when Hillis – who enjoyed his career-best season with new OC Brian Daboll in 2010 – has no such injury questions and is built to carry the load. As much as I like Charles, I simply cannot bring myself to believe a back that relies so much on speed and quickness will go right back to averaging 5.5-6.0 YPC one season after tearing his ACL. Jonathan Baldwin has been the talk of training camp so far, but fantasy owners always must ask themselves how much of that is a hint of a potential breakout for the second-year receiver and how much of that is a threat to get Dwayne Bowe in camp. (Doesn’t the backup always look better when the starter is holding out?) And without Bowe, the Chiefs may have little choice but to lean on their running backs, even with the return of TE Tony Moeaki and a possible breakout year for Baldwin.

Matchup analysis: In the event that Charles trusts his knee by the time November rolls around, it is possible he and Hillis could carry a number of fantasy teams to strong finishes. From Week 12 on, the Chiefs face what projects to be the softest schedule against the run in the league. Perhaps the Broncos or Panthers can get Kansas City out of its run-based gameplan with an early offensive explosion, but with both games being in Arrowhead Stadium, I doubt it. While the pre-bye schedule has some green matchups, it’s not a slate that is overly favorable. Thus, owners should have about a 6-7 week window to figure out if they like what they see from Charles before dealing for him. On the other hand, Hillis is such a huge upgrade from Jones that it might be difficult to take him off the field, especially at the goal line. Bowe isn’t exactly matchup-proof since Cassel is his quarterback, but assuming his unwillingness to sign the franchise tag and report to camp doesn’t go much longer, he is pretty close. If he reports, he’ll have a chance to get up to speed and be useful in fantasy against the Falcons’ and Ravens’ secondary as well as likely “shadow” matchups against Aqib Talib, Ike Taylor and Chris Gamble. (Obviously, the same cannot be said if Baldwin is forced into that spot.) As we saw in 2010, Moeaki is capable of great things, but he has been plagued by injuries for most of his college and pro career. Although he is skilled enough to post a 60-catch season and neutralize the three red matchups he has, he is much too risky for the Chiefs or fantasy owners to count on for an entire season.

 Oakland Raiders
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SD MIA PIT DEN bye ATL JAX KC TB BAL NO CIN CLE DEN KC CAR
QB Carson Palmer 32 16.4 16.4 245.3 245.3 3645 305 285 190 280 255 210 160 245 230 390 205 145 280 205 260
TD 21 2 2 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 2 2 1
INT 15 1 0 1 2 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 1
Ru Yards 35 5 0 5 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Darren McFadden 25 18.6 15.4 223 185 1040 65 90 50 100 60 70 65 105 INJ INJ INJ 100 125 85 125
Ru TD 7 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 INJ INJ INJ 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 330 25 30 10 50 65 15 15 25 INJ INJ INJ 30 30 10 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 38 4 2 2 5 6 2 3 3 INJ INJ INJ 3 4 1 3
RB Mike Goodson 26 5.5 4.1 82 62 365 10 10 15 15 5 10 10 25 45 85 70 30 10 10 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 135 0 0 10 15 0 0 5 5 10 40 20 10 5 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 20 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 6 3 1 1 0 1
RB Taiwan Jones 24 1.1 0.7 16 10 55 0 5 5 0 0 0 5 0 15 15 10 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 45 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 10 10 5 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
RB Marcel Reece 27 8.3 6 124.5 90.5 180 5 10 15 20 10 5 10 0 25 25 25 5 10 5 10
Ru TD 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 365 25 25 10 15 35 5 35 15 20 55 20 10 70 15 10
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 34 3 1 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 4 3 2 4 2 1
WR Denarius Moore 23 13.7 9.7 178.5 125.5 835 90 80 45 55 60 40 25 105 45 120 INJ INJ 80 35 55
Re TD 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 INJ INJ 1 1 0
Rec 53 4 5 3 4 5 3 2 6 4 6 INJ INJ 5 2 4
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 25 13 8.7 181.5 121.5 855 85 60 35 75 35 55 50 INJ 50 100 65 35 45 80 85
Re TD 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 60 5 5 3 6 3 5 5 INJ 3 7 4 2 3 4 5
WR Jacoby Ford 25 6.4 4.3 90 60 480 40 65 25 45 20 40 INJ 70 35 40 20 15 25 10 30
Re TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30 2 3 2 3 1 3 INJ 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 2
WR Juron Criner 22 6.9 4.3 103.5 64.5 465 30 15 40 20 30 45 20 15 45 30 55 45 15 20 40
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 2 1 4 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 5 5 1 2 3
TE David Ausberry 24 1.3 0.6 20 9 90 10 0 10 5 0 10 0 0 10 0 15 0 10 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 2 0

General overview: Feeling lucky? The Raiders must since they not only did not re-sign Michael Bush, but elected to settle on Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones as the backups for Darren McFadden. The reason this is so noteworthy is that with so few feature backs available to fantasy owners, it is difficult to dismiss any of them. But owners are proceeding with caution when it comes to a running back like McFadden coming off a season in which he missed a career-high nine contests, making it four out of four years he has missed at least three games. For a player that typically is drafted among the first 18-20 picks, his owners are either rolling the dice in a big way or comfortable with the fact one of their top two picks will likely miss about a quarter of the season before things even get started. But most readers already know about McFadden’s durability, so the bigger issue becomes whether or not he can thrive behind a zone-blocking line after mostly struggling behind one the first two years of his career. Moving to the passing game, how great of an effect will the more run-oriented play-calling of new OC Greg Knapp have on the final numbers as opposed to the more aggressive schemes of Hue Jackson? For the first time in recent memory, Oakland has two legit and highly-talented starting receivers and quality depth at the position. With McFadden’s durability always a question mark and the ability to take regular deep shots a viable alternative, how much will Knapp change his reputation as a conservative offensive tactician in order to cater to the speed (Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford) and size (rookie Juron Criner) or both (Darrius Heyward-Bey) he has now?

Matchup analysis: Of the nine years he has been a NFL offensive coordinator, Knapp has overseen just one offense that finished in the top 10 in passing yards (10th; 2003 Niners). In the six years since (2004-2009) since he stopped calling plays for Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens, Knapp’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing offense once. It is with this in mind that I am not exactly optimistic when it comes to the 2012 Raiders. The pieces are there for an explosive offense, but Knapp’s love for the running game makes me skeptical that he is the right man for the job. Carson Palmer doesn’t catch a break from his old stomping the grounds – the AFC North, which has a number of solid pass defenses – and doesn’t exactly have a sterling slate to wrap up the season with four straight defenses that have cornerbacks that can neutralize a receiver. And I’m not exactly thrilled with the first 11-12 weeks either since the Bucs and Saints strike me as the only opponents capable of surrendering high-yardage and high-TD games to a quarterback. This obviously does not bode well for Moore or DHB, although I expect the latter to be more consistent if Moore ends up drawing more of the attention from defenses, as I suspect he will. Like a young Brandon Lloyd, Moore is capable of overcoming all the red on this schedule, but he will be a risky proposition given the lack of durability he showed last season. The aforementioned switch in blocking schemes is a small concern for McFadden, but he has shown himself to be nearly matchup-proof when healthy in recent years. In the unlikely event this is the year he manages to play all 16 games, then Knapp’s run-based offense should pay off. The first half of the schedule has its share of defenses that could minimize McFadden’s impact as a runner, but he could put together a pretty special second half against the three worst run defenses of the NFC South, Denver (a team he has shredded in recent years) and Cleveland.

 San Diego Chargers
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
OAK TEN ATL KC NO DEN bye CLE KC TB DEN BAL CIN PIT CAR NYJ
QB Philip Rivers 30 20.5 20.5 307.6 307.6 4265 330 315 295 265 370 290 250 230 320 255 200 320 275 300 250
TD 27 3 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 3 1 0 3 2 2 1
INT 14 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 1
Ru Yards 30 0 0 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ryan Mathews 24 21.6 17.4 324 261 1395 85 110 65 75 115 80 115 100 110 105 65 90 65 130 85
Ru TD 11 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 1
Re Yards 495 35 55 60 25 55 35 15 30 15 50 15 40 10 40 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 63 4 5 7 4 6 5 2 5 3 6 2 5 1 5 3
RB Ronnie Brown 30 1 0.9 15 13 115 10 10 10 5 15 25 10 5 0 5 10 0 5 5 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
RB Le’Ron McClain 27 3.5 2.5 52 37 95 10 0 5 10 0 10 0 15 10 5 5 15 0 0 10
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 95 5 10 0 0 5 20 5 0 10 0 10 0 0 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 2
WR Robert Meachem 27 12.7 8.7 191 130 940 70 70 45 50 120 30 25 85 110 70 45 90 60 55 15
Re TD 6 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 61 6 4 3 4 7 3 2 5 5 4 3 6 5 3 1
WR Malcom Floyd 30 11.7 8.4 140.5 100.5 705 75 60 50 80 INJ INJ 50 40 105 20 INJ 75 50 65 35
Re TD 5 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 1 0
Rec 40 4 3 3 4 INJ INJ 3 3 5 1 INJ 4 4 4 2
WR Vincent Brown 23 8.8 5.5 131.5 82.5 585 35 25 30 40 65 55 25 50 65 40 25 20 50 25 35
Re TD 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 49 3 2 3 4 6 3 2 4 5 3 2 2 5 2 3
WR Eddie Royal 26 9.8 5.5 127.5 71.5 595 40 35 60 40 50 55 35 INJ INJ 65 40 25 40 60 50
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 56 4 3 6 5 5 4 4 INJ INJ 5 4 2 4 5 5
TE Antonio Gates 32 15.1 10 181 120 720 70 60 50 20 75 60 85 INJ INJ INJ 60 70 55 40 75
Re TD 8 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 61 7 5 5 2 6 5 6 INJ INJ INJ 5 6 4 3 7
TE Randy McMichael 33 2 1.2 29.5 17.5 115 0 0 0 10 0 25 10 25 15 10 0 0 10 0 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 1

General overview: Over the last two offseasons, the Chargers have arguably lost more offensive talent than any team in the league with the departures of Darren Sproles, Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson, so no one should really pile on Philip Rivers too much if the interception-happy 2011 version of the Chargers’ quarterback reappears this season. The problem with judging Rivers solely on last season is that he basically tore up the NFL one season earlier with a constantly changing supporting cast – a group that was not as talented as the one Rivers has to work with in 2012. Robert Meachem probably isn’t going to make anyone forget Jackson this year, but it is fair to say the ex-Saint is probably more of a complete receiver than he was allowed to show in New Orleans. The other starter, Malcom Floyd, is a big deep threat that is worth a start in fantasy when he plays, but his durability is probably always going to be a huge question mark. Antonio Gates is supposedly the healthiest he has been in years, but I find it hard to believe his foot problems will not crop up again at some point. A 16-game season from Gates will do wonders for Rivers as will an under-the-radar free agent signing in Eddie Royal, who has HC Norv Turner gushing. Since Royal signed with San Diego, Turner has likened his new receiver to all-time greats Charlie Joiner and Henry Ellard and even went so far as to say that Royal was the most impressive player he’s coached the past few seasons. But the real fantasy prize in this offense should be Ryan Mathews, who is undoubtedly in the best shape of his career heading into his third season. Mathews has justifiably earned a reputation for being fragile throughout his college and pro career, but this doesn’t have the same feel as McFadden’s injury history; it is quite possible that Mathews wasn’t doing enough in the offseason before to protect himself from the nagging injuries he has dealt with during his young career. If he puts it to together in 2012 and completes the schedule, he could easily lead the league in rushing.

Matchup analysis: If Mathews is truly ready to announce his arrival as an elite fantasy back, the schedule should offer little resistance…until the end. I have a great deal of confidence that Mathews can exploit each of the seven greens I have given him through the first 10 games, meaning he could easily be the league’s top rusher before facing three straight AFC North foes. Still, if there was ever a year for an elite back to face Pittsburgh and Baltimore, this might be that year with the Ravens losing run-stuffing OLB Jarrett Johnson (ironically, to the Chargers) and sack demon Terrell Suggs to injury, with the implication being that OLBs – especially Johnson – can be key to stuffing the run. The Steelers could also be ripe for the picking as well against a dominant runner since they have an older defense that is returning NT Casey Hampton from ACL surgery and will be asking Larry Foote to fill the big shoes of ILB James Farrior. The members of the passing game do not appear to be as fortunate as their running game brethren, particularly Meachem. Only Oakland and New Orleans offer refuge for an unproven lead receiver that will need to display the ability to run the entire route tree (something he didn’t get much opportunity to show as a Saint) against elite corners such as Brandon Flowers and Champ Bailey and the tough pass defenses of the AFC North, among others. As always, Rivers will likely lean on Gates for as long as he can, but don’t dismiss Royal as the most reliable option in the slot Rivers has enjoyed since he became the regular starter in 2006. In my opinion, it will be the contributions (or lack thereof) from Mathews, Gates and Royal that determine whether or not Rivers rebounds from 2011 or not.

NFC West

 Arizona Cardinals
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SEA NE PHI MIA STL BUF MIN SF GB bye ATL STL NYJ SEA DET CHI
QB Kevin Kolb 28 17.1 17.1 136.7 136.7 2030 260 350 205 285 190 INJ 265 190 285
TD 12 1 1 2 2 1 INJ 2 1 2
INT 11 0 2 1 1 2 INJ 0 2 3
Ru Yards 55 5 0 15 0 10 INJ 10 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
QB John Skelton 24 17 17 119.3 119.3 1845 315 185 250 245 295 330 225
TD 10 2 0 2 2 1 2 1
INT 11 2 2 0 1 3 1 2
Ru Yards 75 10 10 5 10 15 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Beanie Wells 24 9 8.4 116.5 109.5 700 30 25 60 70 65 45 35 INJ INJ 45 105 55 55 65 45
Ru TD 6 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 35 0 10 0 0 0 5 0 INJ INJ 10 0 0 0 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 2 0 0 0 1 1
RB Ryan Williams 22 9.3 7.2 129.5 100.5 585 45 65 30 25 30 25 60 35 70 40 30 40 25 INJ 65
Ru TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 1
Re Yards 180 15 20 10 0 10 25 0 10 15 25 15 5 10 INJ 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0
Rec 29 2 3 2 0 2 4 0 2 3 3 3 1 1 INJ 3
RB LaRod Stephens-Howling 25 3.5 2.3 52.5 34.5 65 0 0 0 10 0 0 15 15 10 0 0 0 0 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 220 10 30 0 0 15 20 0 0 55 15 0 35 0 25 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 4 2
WR Larry Fitzgerald 29 17.6 11.6 263.5 174.5 1205 80 130 75 80 70 100 55 60 85 65 105 35 70 125 70
Re TD 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0
Rec 89 6 10 7 5 4 6 5 4 7 5 8 2 5 9 6
WR Andre Roberts 24 5.3 3 79 45 390 35 20 30 35 15 20 20 15 35 15 55 20 35 30 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 34 3 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 1 4 2 3 3 1
WR Early Doucet 26 11.3 7.2 135 86 620 50 35 45 70 25 55 70 50 INJ INJ INJ 60 45 75 40
Re TD 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ 1 0 0 0
Rec 49 4 3 4 5 2 4 6 3 INJ INJ INJ 5 3 6 4
WR Michael Floyd 22 8.9 5.8 133 87 630 35 40 15 50 35 45 70 40 55 35 45 35 65 25 40
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 46 2 3 2 4 3 2 5 2 4 3 3 2 6 2 3
TE Todd Heap 32 2.5 1.2 28 13 130 10 15 10 15 20 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 15 35 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 1 2 1 2 2 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 2 4 0 0
TE Rob Housler 24 6.6 4.3 98.5 64.5 465 25 50 20 35 0 35 50 15 40 20 30 40 35 45 25
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 34 2 3 2 3 0 3 4 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 1

General overview: It seems almost comical, but an aging Edgerrin James (in 2007) is still the most productive running back HC Ken Whisenhunt has employed as he enters his sixth season with the Cardinals. While Beanie Wells finally managed to stay healthy enough to record Arizona’s first 1,000-yard rushing season since James in 2011, he isn’t doing much to change opinions of his durability this offseason. In fact, Ryan Williams – coming off a torn patellar tendon – actually appears to be closer to game action than Wells, who has yet to disclose the details of the knee surgery he underwent over six months ago. (For what it is worth, Wells suggested his knee was at “75 percent” when interviewed by the Arizona Republic in late July.) Considering the uncertainty at quarterback, the Cardinals could really use both of their talented runners right now in a division that is rapidly improving on defense. The passing game got a nice boost from the draft in first-rounder Michael Floyd, who projects to be the long-term sidekick for Larry Fitzgerald. With Andre Roberts and Early Doucet capable of being solid No. 3 and No. 4 receivers in the league and the projected emergence of TE Rob Housler, the winner of the Kevin Kolb-John Skelton training camp quarterback competition has little excuse not to perform at a reasonable level. Then again, Arizona’s unwillingness to take an offseason to seriously upgrade the offensive line isn’t helping matters. OG Daryn Colledge enjoyed a fine first season in the desert, C Lyle Sendlein is an offensive staple and fourth-rounder Bobby Massie could eventually secure RT, but the overall talent up front after those three is startling. Kolb’s tendency to hold on to the ball too long only accentuates the problem, which brings us right back to the reason why the team needs Wells AND Williams to carry their share of the offense: to let Fitzgerald be the special receiver he is.

Matchup analysis: Even if we assume Wells’ prediction that he will be 100% by Week 1 is correct (I wouldn’t count on it), he probably will not be ready to take on a full load, which may open the door for Williams to force his way into a 50-50 split of the backfield touches. Whereas I don’t have a great feeling about Wells’ dominating this schedule due to his lack of passing-game skills, Williams has a chance to be the more attractive fantasy property against a somewhat neutral pre-bye schedule. The second half of the schedule will probably reduce both players to flex options as all three road games are against teams that should have stout run defenses and Weeks 15-16 are home tilts against opponents who may be able to force the Cardinals to ditch the rushing attack thanks to high-powered offenses. Fitzgerald has a ridiculously difficult path ahead of him, but his impeccable timing and ball skills cure a lot of ills. Still, the Rams, Seahawks and Niners all should have impressive cornerback duos that will challenge him every step of the way as will the CB duos from Atlanta and Philadelphia. Throw in potential “shadow dates” with Chris Cook and Darrelle Revis and owners had better hope the quarterback situation improves. As one might expect, I have the rest of the Cardinals’ receivers as mostly off-limits after the bye since they face the likes of the Falcons, Rams, Jets, Seahawks and Bears. One player who could help tilt the scales a bit is Housler, who is yet another new-era athletic tight end who Arizona wants to get involved this season. If he can stretch the field like the Cardinals think he can, it makes life much easier for players like Fitzgerald and Doucet in the slot.

 St. Louis Rams
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DET WAS CHI SEA ARI MIA GB NE bye SF NYJ ARI SF BUF MIN TB
QB Sam Bradford 24 17.9 17.9 268.6 268.6 3990 275 315 250 200 270 320 270 305 210 190 280 220 300 300 285
TD 22 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 0 0 2 0 1 3 2
INT 15 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 70 5 10 5 0 0 0 5 0 10 5 5 5 10 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Steven Jackson 29 15.3 12.8 229 192 1105 110 70 65 80 75 115 65 55 35 75 55 60 45 110 90
Ru TD 7 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 275 15 15 10 5 10 20 30 25 10 20 45 5 25 15 25
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 37 3 2 2 1 2 3 4 3 1 3 4 1 3 2 3
RB Isaiah Pead 22 7 4.9 105.5 73.5 335 15 10 10 45 15 5 15 30 10 30 20 15 40 50 25
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 280 10 20 15 10 15 10 45 40 25 5 15 35 20 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 32 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 4 3 1 2 4 2 1 1
WR Steve Smith 27 10.5 6.6 157.5 98.5 745 65 40 80 40 55 70 70 40 40 0 40 55 75 45 30
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 59 5 4 6 3 5 6 5 3 4 0 4 3 5 4 2
WR Greg Salas 24 8.8 5.5 106 66 480 50 65 40 25 60 30 30 50 25 30 INJ INJ INJ 30 45
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 40 4 5 3 2 6 2 3 4 2 3 INJ INJ INJ 3 3
WR Danny Amendola 26 11.1 6.1 166.5 91.5 735 50 50 45 65 45 40 45 55 40 35 65 30 45 80 45
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 75 6 5 5 8 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 3 5 7 5
WR Brian Quick 23 8.7 6.1 130.5 91.5 615 40 45 10 10 40 55 20 40 25 45 50 45 60 65 65
Re TD 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 39 2 3 1 1 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 4
WR Chris Givens 22 3.5 2.2 46 29 230 15 40 10 0 30 10 INJ INJ 15 25 35 10 25 15 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 1 2 1 0 2 1 INJ INJ 1 2 3 1 2 1 0
TE Lance Kendricks 24 8.3 5.2 125 78 540 30 30 40 45 15 70 30 45 20 30 25 40 30 40 50
Re TD 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 47 3 3 4 4 1 5 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 3
TE Michael Hoomanawanui 24 1.3 0.6 20 9 90 0 10 0 0 0 15 0 10 10 0 5 0 20 0 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 0 2

General overview: I can offer one guarantee for the Rams in 2012: barring injury, Sam Bradford will have a much better receiving corps than he did one season ago. What is less clear is the order they will fall on the depth chart. Ex-Giant Steve Smith is on the “verge of rebirth” if you believe the early talk from Rams’ camp. I’m not sure we can ever expect him to recapture to his pre-injury form when he caught 107 balls in 2009, but I have advising owners all summer to keep an eye on him all offseason despite the fact he is returning from microfracture knee surgery. At the rate he is going, he may lock up a starting spot. As expected, Danny Amendola will be the primary slot receiver and will likely be Sam Bradford’s top target this season. While Amendola is also in the race to start, it is difficult to believe St. Louis will not begin the season without second-round rookie Brian Quick in the lineup. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, Quick should quickly emerge as the team’s top red-zone weapon. One of few knocks on him coming out of Appalachian State was his tendency to start slow, something he won’t have the chance to do with the improved talent on this roster. Last but not least, rookie Chris Givens, Brandon Gibson and Greg Salas cannot be counted out either. New OC Brian Schottenheimer is expecting big things from second-year TE Lance Kendricks and considering his background with a similar “rocked-up receiver” in Dustin Keller, Kendricks has sleeper potential in fantasy. But as has been the case for years, this offense will only be as good as Steven Jackson makes it. While rookie Isaiah Pead has drawn comparisons to the Titans’ Chris Johnson from new HC Jeff Fisher and his staff, St. Louis will be a physical run-oriented team under this new regime and Jackson will be the one carrying the majority of that load over the next 1-2 years.

Matchup analysis: The only positive comment I can make about Bradford regarding his matchups this season is that he should start fast and finish strong; I’m just not quite sure how good he will be in the middle. The Lions and Redskins offer two of the softer secondaries the Rams will face all season in Weeks 1 and 2 while the Vikings and Bucs don’t exactly figure to possess upper-echelon defensive backfields either by the time most fantasy owners are finishing their season. The problem is the majority of the schedule is played from Weeks 3-14 and many of the defenses St. Louis will play over that time have the pass rush or cornerbacks to harass Bradford and his young collection of wideouts, including all five games the Rams play inside their division. As one might expect with such parity at the position, St. Louis could have 4-5 different receivers lead the team in any given week. Unfortunately, only Smith has really proven himself as a player capable of carrying a passing attack and must prove he can stay healthy despite glowing reports about his recovery. As a result, the matchups are almost as daunting for the receivers as they appear to be for Bradford. One way the Rams can change that, however, is to lean on Jackson. Given his all-around contributions, Jackson should have only three red matchups since he is often a primary target in the passing game and will be running behind an improved line. Given Fisher’s reputation for hard-nosed rushing attacks, Jackson could be in for his fourth career 300-carry season while Pead gets his feet wet. Once again, Jackson is in phenomenal shape and is a good bet for consistent fantasy production given his schedule and likely workload.

 San Francisco 49ers
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
GB DET MIN NYJ BUF NYG SEA ARI bye STL CHI NO STL MIA NE SEA
QB Alex Smith 28 18 18 269.5 269.5 3550 245 260 250 175 225 245 175 245 210 265 335 195 255 285 185
TD 22 1 2 2 1 1 2 0 2 1 2 3 0 2 2 1
INT 12 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 1 1
Ru Yards 135 15 10 10 5 10 15 0 5 10 10 10 5 15 5 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Frank Gore 29 9.7 8.8 135.5 122.5 825 50 60 70 40 55 INJ 70 50 60 35 55 80 75 65 60
Ru TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 100 5 10 0 0 5 INJ 10 0 0 25 15 0 0 20 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 1 2 0 0 1 INJ 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 1
RB Kendall Hunter 23 6.5 4.8 98 72 380 20 25 5 30 20 30 15 25 20 25 60 35 15 30 25
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 220 10 15 5 10 15 5 0 25 25 30 25 10 15 25 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26 2 2 1 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 3 1 2 2 1
RB Brandon Jacobs 30 5.4 5.1 75 72 340 25 15 30 35 15 55 20 20 INJ 15 5 30 45 10 20
Ru TD 6 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 1 0 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 20 0 0 5 0 0 10 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0
RB LaMichael James 22 5.3 4.3 69.5 56.5 230 15 10 40 0 15 10 0 40 60 10 15 INJ INJ 10 5
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Re Yards 155 0 10 0 30 0 25 0 15 0 15 20 INJ INJ 40 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 13 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 2 INJ INJ 4 0
WR Michael Crabtree 24 11.4 7.1 171 107 710 60 60 75 20 50 20 40 50 40 55 40 25 70 60 45
Re TD 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 64 5 6 7 2 4 2 3 5 4 5 4 2 6 5 4
WR Randy Moss 35 10.4 7.2 155.5 108.5 725 60 55 45 30 55 60 35 45 65 50 75 40 25 65 20
Re TD 6 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 47 4 3 2 2 4 5 3 2 4 3 5 2 2 4 2
WR Mario Manningham 26 5.8 3.8 87.5 57.5 455 30 25 50 30 40 55 25 40 20 0 45 20 55 20 0
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 30 2 2 3 2 4 3 2 3 1 0 2 1 4 1 0
TE Vernon Davis 28 13.7 9 205.5 135.5 935 70 85 45 35 50 45 55 70 50 75 115 65 65 40 70
Re TD 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 70 6 6 4 3 5 3 4 6 4 5 8 4 5 3 4
TE Delanie Walker 28 1.7 0.8 25.5 12.5 125 10 0 10 10 0 15 0 0 0 15 0 10 25 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 2

General overview: Anyone that remembers Alex Smith’s second season with the Niners – under then-OC Norv Turner – knew the former No.1 overall pick was a serviceable player. But the fact that HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman could install such confidence in Smith during an abbreviated training camp last year and get him to control the error-prone decision-making he exhibited over the first five seasons of his career is nothing short of amazing. The one huge flaw that Smith could not correct, however, was the Niners’ inability to regularly convert red-zone drives into touchdowns. To help correct that problem, the Niners added Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James – a player Harbaugh praised for his red-zone prowess when he coached against him in the old Pac-10 Conference – to the backfield and Randy Moss and A.J. Jenkins at receiver. One of three teams to run the ball more than it passed last season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Niners leaned slightly more on Smith’s arm now that a revitalized Moss will allow TE Vernon Davis to work the middle of the field without commanding as much defensive attention. With that said, Harbaugh’s teams will always be devoted to running the ball – an area of this team most fantasy owners will probably avoid this season. Why? Because the Niners added two more running backs to a stable that included two pretty good ones already in Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. With so many capable players vying for approximately 25-30 touches in an offense that doesn’t throw all that much to their backs, Gore is probably a low-upside RB2 now while the other three warrant nothing more than a bench spot in fantasy.

Matchup analysis: A Niners QB is worth some level of fantasy consideration for the first time in recent memory, although the first half of their schedule may have fans calling Smith a “one-year wonder” if he doesn’t at least match the level of play he showed San Francisco in the playoffs. The Niners’ defense figures to keep them in just about every game, so potential shootouts are highly unlikely – even against the likes of Green Bay in Week 1 or Detroit in Week 2. However, assuming the Packers make the expected jump back into the top defenses of the league, San Francisco could have as many as six difficult passing matchups prior to the bye. As noted earlier, the NFC West is quickly becoming a division with a lot of defensive talent, so the second half of the schedule is no cakewalk either. Michael Crabtree – who has yet to play a single preseason game entering his fourth season – is dealing with more injury problems in camp and is a prime candidate to fall short of his career-high catch and yardage totals last year should he see as much Charles Woodson, Darrelle Revis, Cortland Finnegan and the Seahawks’ corners as I suspect he will. And if that is the case, the door will be open for Moss to be the most valuable fantasy WR on the team. Davis’ late-season emergence reminded us that he is Smith’s favorite target and his 2012 matchups suggest he should be in for more of the same. As discussed earlier, the San Francisco running game would be an attractive fantasy property based on volume and this schedule, but if RB coach Tom Rathman says that his players probably aren’t going to be happy with their touches, I doubt fantasy owners will either. Just bear in mind the team may ramp up Gore’s workload after the bye, so prospecting owners may want to target that time as an opportunity to take a shot on Gore as a low-end RB2 down the stretch. With three greens and two neutral matchups after Week 9, he is a candidate to finish strong.

 Seattle Seahawks
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI DAL GB STL CAR NE SF DET MIN NYJ bye MIA CHI ARI BUF SF
QB Matt Flynn 27 15.7 15.7 236.1 236.1 3465 225 295 310 245 155 220 180 310 230 205 290 115 305 250 130
TD 18 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 1 1 1
INT 13 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 0
Ru Yards 95 10 5 10 15 0 0 5 10 10 0 5 10 0 5 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
QB Russell Wilson 23 7.8 7.8 31.1 31.1 390 135 95 105 55
TD 2 1 1 0 0
INT 1 1 0 0 0
Ru Yards 55 25 10 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Marshawn Lynch 26 12.8 11.2 192 168 1055 55 90 70 80 105 55 40 75 65 45 115 65 75 65 55
Ru TD 8 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 145 5 5 20 0 10 15 5 15 0 25 5 15 5 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 1 1 3 0 2 2 1 2 0 4 1 2 1 3 1
RB Robert Turbin 22 2.8 2.4 39 34 250 10 15 10 35 10 25 20 10 10 25 45 5 INJ 15 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 0 0
Re Yards 30 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 10 0 INJ 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 INJ 0 1
RB Leon Washington 30 6.2 4.1 93 61 260 10 5 25 10 10 35 10 50 20 15 10 15 20 15 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 230 10 25 30 15 15 25 10 15 0 10 10 10 20 20 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 32 1 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 0 2 1 2 4 3 2
WR Sidney Rice 26 10.7 7.5 139 97 730 40 80 40 60 100 INJ INJ 35 50 20 70 55 75 65 40
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 42 3 4 2 3 5 INJ INJ 2 3 1 4 3 5 4 3
WR Terrell Owens 38 11 6.8 142.5 88.5 705 55 75 65 60 60 80 40 70 60 30 35 INJ 40 35 INJ
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0 INJ
Rec 54 4 6 5 4 5 6 3 5 5 3 2 INJ 4 2 INJ
WR Doug Baldwin 23 9.3 5.3 140 80 680 35 40 25 50 30 55 45 65 45 40 50 75 65 40 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 60 3 4 2 5 3 5 4 6 4 4 4 6 5 3 2
WR Golden Tate 24 3.9 2.2 58 33 270 10 15 30 0 20 45 30 25 0 15 10 25 15 10 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 25 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 2
WR Braylon Edwards 29 6.2 4.4 93.5 65.5 415 30 20 35 0 35 30 0 30 20 50 45 0 45 20 55
Re TD 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 28 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 3 2 4 3 0 3 2 3
TE Zach Miller 26 3.3 2.1 50 31 190 0 15 35 20 0 10 20 10 25 0 10 20 15 0 10
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 19 0 1 3 2 0 1 2 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 2
TE Kellen Winslow 29 7.3 4.2 109.5 63.5 455 40 20 25 40 15 50 30 40 30 15 45 20 25 45 15
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 46 4 2 2 4 2 5 3 4 3 2 4 2 3 4 2

General overview: Assessing a team’s likelihood for success in any given season is difficult enough, but the Seahawks are a completely different monster than most. At quarterback, Seattle has a legitimate three-man competition between free agent signee Matt Flynn, holdover Tarvaris Jackson and third-round rookie Russell Wilson. Drawing comparisons to Drew Brees and Jeff Garcia from his general manager this offseason, Wilson is most likely the long-term future starter, but does it really matter all that much to owners with the current situation at receiver? Sidney Rice is an undeniable talent, but he’s one of the few players in the league that seems to be a poor bet to last even half a season. Golden Tate starting to emerge last season and Doug Baldwin surprised with his ability to post a 51-catch season after going undrafted in 2011, but the new story of the preseason came right before press time Monday night when 38-year-old Terrell Owens agreed to a one-year deal with the team, suggesting the coaching staff isn’t liking what it is seeing with Tate. Completely ignoring the potential havoc a polarizing figure like Owens has been known to cause, this receiving corps has huge upside if Rice could stay healthy and a huge downside should Owens be forced into a lead role. The team also traded for Kellen Winslow in the offseason and will now pair him with a similar talent in Zach Miller, making both players highly questionable picks in fantasy. And then there is Marshawn Lynch, who has reminded us all of the rollercoaster ride he can give his owners over the past year with his sensational second half of 2011 and his DUI arrest in mid-July. He has fantasy RB1 talent, but the “knucklehead factor” (and possible league suspension) should be enough for owners to remember he is best used as a high-upside RB2 at most. Given the combustible nature of Owens, Lynch and even Winslow, the Seahawks could be a fantasy goldmine if everyone is happy and a complete disaster if they get off to a slow start.

Matchup analysis: As I alluded to above, getting a grasp of Seattle will be difficult to do until we receive answers on the identity of the starting quarterback and the length of Lynch’s suspension (if he actually is hit with one). Fortunately, each quarterback has enough shortcomings in their game that I feel good about the color-coding at the position. Given the ball-control nature of this offense, it will be difficult for Flynn or either one of the other two quarterbacks to get off to a fast start with four consecutive yellow matchups. Two red matchups close out an early stretch that could see at least six poor fantasy performances in the first 10 games and it is fair to say with three consecutive yellows and one more red to close out the fantasy season that it won’t get any easier after the bye. I’m optimistically projecting Rice to miss just two games, but most owners should be prepared for him to miss several more considering he has played in just 15 contests over the last two seasons combined. And even if he plays all 16 games for just the second time in his career, it remains to be seen just how much he’ll be hurt by Flynn’s relative lack of arm strength on the downfield jump balls that Rice wins on a regular basis. Winslow was set to become his new quarterback’s favorite target, but his relatively soft schedule doesn’t make up for the lack of a quality supporting cast, the run-heavy approach or the likelihood that Owens will steal most of his underneath looks. I’m not projecting Lynch to miss any time until Roger Goodell rules on it, but it may not matter much if his reputation as an underachiever rears its ugly head again, especially after landing his big contract. Two green matchups follow three yellows to open the season, but only a game against the Lions appears to be a solid matchup for him (or likely backup Robert Turbin). Much like the passing game, Lynch could be in for a down stretch to close out the 2012 season, especially in Week 16 against the Niners.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.