Key to the table below:

Fant – Player’s rank in a PPR fantasy league where all touchdowns are worth six points.

0-4% - This column represents the percentage of games in which a receiver/tight end received no more than four targets.

0-4 - This column represents the actual number of games in which a receiver/tight end received no more than four targets.

Note #1: Tight ends had to play in at least eight games and average at least four targets. The top 25 tight ends are all included, with “**” denoting the players that did not make the cut but figure to have some impact in 2013.

Note #2: You may sort the table by clicking on the column headers.

Observations: Twenty-seven receivers (who played at least 15 games) received eight or more targets in half of their games. At tight end, only two – Witten and Graham – made the cut; Pettigrew and Hernandez each would have made it had they played enough games, but Graham is the only one to meet the original criteria in both 2011 and 2012. It is also quite telling that if we removed the games-played limitation, three of the four players are repeats from 2011 (Witten replaced Gonzalez). Even if we ignore the games-played limitation in both seasons, that is a shockingly small number for a position that is becoming increasingly more important in gameplans around the NFL.

Throwing out the five players (Hernandez, Pettigrew, Gronkowski, Cook and Housler) that failed to play at least 15 games, 18 tight ends saw at least five or more targets in half of their games. Of those 18, only two finished outside the top 20 (Watson and Scheffler).

Thanks in part to the lack of elite talent at the position, there appears to be a bit more margin for error (as it relates to a high number of low-target games) at the tight end position. Five players that had 5-6 “low-target games” still secured top-14 finishes while Gates, Chandler and Lewis all had seven such games and found themselves among the top 16. Somewhat surprisingly, Myers (sixth) and Pitta (eight) each had six low-target games and managed to sneak into the top 10.

Fantasy Impact: A smaller grouping of players (tight ends vs. receivers) will undoubtedly have a pronounced effect on the final conclusions, but owners need to start recognizing just how much of an advantage Graham can provide owners on a weekly basis. With Hernandez ‘s football career on life support (at best) and Gronkowski’s durability a legitimate concern, perhaps no other player at any other position provides the kind of weekly separation that Graham does. Based on the data I’ve collected in two years, owners need to select a tight end that will see five or more targets in eight games or more if they want to have a realistic shot at drafting a top-20 player at the position. Unlike receiver – which has its share of big-play threats that sneak into fantasy relevancy each year with low-target games – a tight end’s ability to make a sizable dent in fantasy is based almost exclusively on volume and touchdowns because so few are dynamic big-play threats.

Quarterbacks

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me or follow me on Twitter.