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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Red Zone Revisited - Quarterbacks
All Out Blitz: Volume 85
11/13/14

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

I consider myself a man of the people, so when the inquiring minds of the fantasy community ask for something, I try my best to deliver.

One of the most well-received preseason pieces I do each summer is the Red Zone Report. For those unfamiliar with it, I do a team-by-team breakdown of each team’s activity from the previous season and try to provide some insight into how it affects the upcoming season.

Last week, I was asked to do a midseason version of it and it makes perfect sense to do so. While I can’t use the same 32-team format that I do for the preseason piece due to the regular-season time crunch, doing a version that gives owners an idea where quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends stands in relation to his peers at the position isn’t nearly as time consuming (and is probably more digestible anyway).

Here is the key to all the abbreviations you will see in the tables below:

Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp – Completions
PaTD – Pass TD
PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass
RuAtt – Rush Attempt
RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone carries a player had for his team (For example, Andre Ellington secured 14 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he had 14.3% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)
RuTD – Rush TD
RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run
Tar – Red-zone targets
Tar % - The percentage of red-zone targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald secured 24 of Arizona’s 68 red-zone passing attempts, meaning he had 34.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)
Rec – Red-zone receptions
ReTD – Receiving TD
ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception

**** Sorted by attempts, then by QB rating QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs
 Red Zone Report - Quarterbacks
Player Team Att Comp Comp% PaTD PaTD% QB Rat RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD%
Peyton Manning DEN 61 45 73.8 18 29.5 125.0 1 3.4 0 0.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 59 38 64.4 14 23.7 97.8 4 10.8 0 0.0
Aaron Rodgers GB 57 32 56.1 16 28.1 96.0 5 13.9 1 20.0
Andrew Luck IND 56 33 58.9 16 28.6 96.0 10 23.8 2 20.0
Ryan Tannehill MIA 56 34 60.7 14 25.0 93.8 2 3.3 0 0.0
Jay Cutler CHI 51 24 47.1 14 27.5 88.2 1 4.8 1 100.0
Eli Manning NYG 50 30 60.0 15 30.0 97.7 2 4.7 1 50.0
Drew Brees NO 46 29 63.0 13 28.3 92.7 4 8.5 1 25.0
Tom Brady NE 44 30 68.2 17 38.6 118.2 6 14.0 0 0.0
Philip Rivers SD 42 26 61.9 14 33.3 106.8 5 16.1 0 0.0
Joe Flacco BAL 40 18 45.0 9 22.5 82.2 6 11.5 0 0.0
Matthew Stafford DET 39 19 48.7 8 20.5 86.8 2 5.3 2 100.0
Alex Smith KC 38 24 63.2 10 26.3 111.4 2 5.3 1 50.0
Nick Foles PHI 35 15 42.9 5 14.3 67.1 0 0.0 0 0.0
Russell Wilson SEA 34 16 47.1 8 23.5 84.4 14 26.4 4 28.6
Geno Smith NYJ 31 18 58.1 6 19.4 95.0 6 14.0 1 16.7
Brian Hoyer CLE 30 20 66.7 8 26.7 111.9 5 8.6 0 0.0
Tony Romo DAL 30 19 63.3 12 40.0 101.1 0 0.0 0 0.0
Carson Palmer ARI 30 16 53.3 6 20.0 86.3 0 0.0 0 0.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 29 14 48.3 7 24.1 80.2 4 13.8 1 25.0
Colin Kaepernick SF 27 17 63.0 8 29.6 110.0 10 25.6 0 0.0
Austin Davis STL 25 17 68.0 7 28.0 113.5 2 6.3 0 0.0
Kyle Orton BUF 25 13 52.0 6 24.0 97.5 1 2.6 0 0.0
Andy Dalton CIN 25 11 44.0 4 16.0 96.0 7 14.6 2 28.6
Derek Carr OAK 24 15 62.5 10 41.7 93.6 0 0.0 0 0.0
Mike Glennon TB 23 9 39.1 7 30.4 68.7 0 0.0 0 0.0
Matt Ryan ATL 22 17 77.3 10 45.5 125.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Kirk Cousins WAS 22 13 59.1 6 27.3 107.4 1 2.6 0 0.0
Cam Newton CAR 21 11 52.4 6 28.6 104.2 12 26.7 2 16.7
Blake Bortles JAC 19 8 42.1 3 15.8 49.7 1 4.3 0 0.0
Michael Vick NYJ 17 9 52.9 2 11.8 97.9 5 11.6 0 0.0
EJ Manuel BUF 16 7 43.8 4 25.0 65.4 5 13.2 1 20.0
Charlie Whitehurst TEN 15 6 40.0 3 20.0 87.5 0 0.0 0 0.0
Drew Stanton ARI 13 4 30.8 0 0.0 40.2 3 10.0 0 0.0
Jake Locker TEN 12 5 41.7 3 25.0 89.6 2 8.7 1 50.0
Derek Anderson CAR 9 5 55.6 2 22.2 107.9 2 4.4 0 0.0
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 9 7 77.8 2 22.2 90.3 5 16.7 1 20.0
Christian Ponder MIN 9 4 44.4 0 0.0 53.9 2 6.7 1 50.0
Robert Griffin III WAS 8 4 50.0 1 12.5 98.4 3 7.7 0 0.0
Josh McCown TB 8 5 62.5 3 37.5 71.9 2 7.4 2 100.0
Mark Sanchez PHI 7 5 71.4 4 57.1 132.7 0 0.0 0 0.0
Matt Cassel MIN 7 3 42.9 2 28.6 91.7 1 3.3 0 0.0
Zach Mettenberger TEN 6 5 83.3 3 50.0 131.9 0 0.0 0 0.0
Brandon Weeden DAL 6 2 33.3 1 16.7 42.4 0 0.0 0 0.0
Chad Henne JAC 4 2 50.0 0 0.0 56.3 1 4.3 0 0.0
Colt McCoy WAS 2 1 50.0 0 0.0 56.3 3 7.7 1 33.3
Jimmy Garoppolo NE 1 1 100.0 1 100.0 158.3 0 0.0 0 0.0
Matt Moore MIA 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 2 3.3 0 0.0

Coaches, general managers and fans of baseball often compartmentalize hurlers into one of two very broad categories: throwers and pitchers. I think it is a significant point to make here because as the field shrinks in football, the ability to anticipate and throw into tight windows becomes much more important that “gunning it in there”. If you sort this position by completion percentage and simply look at the players with at least 20 red-zone attempts, it is fascinating to see how few players with “rocket arms” are completing above or around 60 percent of their throws. Granted, their team’s offensive philosophy plays a big role in that final number, but it is still quite telling that players such as Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco all find themselves at 53.3 percent or lower (with most of them having at least one very good red-zone threat at their disposal).

How much has the Pittsburgh changed its offensive philosophy? While I get the fact his team has yet to go on its bye, it is telling that Ben Roethlisberger trails only Peyton Manning in red-zone attempts despite the fact that Martavis Bryant – the big receiver the Steelers’ quarterback has asked for seemingly since Plaxico Burress left the “Steel City” the first time – did not become a major part of the offensive attack until three weeks ago. Pittsburgh hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 3, but one has to wonder if the Steelers don’t use upcoming plus-matchups in the running game against Tennessee, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Atlanta – especially considering the weather could be a factor in three of those games – to lower their reliance on Roethlisberger’s arm.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the top 10-15 quarterbacks is that Ryan Tannehill has attempted as many red-zone passes as Andrew Luck. Since they just happen to be paired together above, take a moment to compare how close the two are to each other in the red zone. It is stunning to me that someone with Tannehill’s athletic ability (he played receiver at times at a high level in college at Texas A&M) has been asked to carry the ball only twice inside the 20 in a Chip Kelly-style offense while Luck has the same number of red-zone rush attempts as Colin Kaepernick. Although I’m not a big fan of Tannehill the rest of the way due to his schedule and last week’s loss of LT Branden Albert, it does bode well for 2015 and beyond.

The biggest shock at the position might be which regular starters at quarterback have been the most efficient (in terms of PaTD). If you guessed Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and/or Luck, you would be wrong. Instead, the honors belong to Matt Ryan, Derek Carr and Tony Romo. As the signal-caller for one of the most-balanced offensive attacks this season, I can easily make a case that Romo’s low number of attempts plus the presence of Dez Bryant allows him to be highly efficient, but that logic certainly does not apply to the other two quarterbacks.

Like Romo, a low number of attempts can boost the PaTD rate when a quarterback finds the end zone, but Atlanta and Oakland certainly don’t possess the ground game to threaten defenses inside the 20 like the Cowboys do. My best guess is that roughly 70 percent of both players’ success (Ryan and Carr) is coming in late-game or garbage-time situations, which would explain both the low number of attempts and high efficiency. That rationale would also explain why quarterbacks like Zach Mettenberger and Josh McCown have such high PaTD percentages as well, although their “success” is also likely helped by a smaller sample size as well.

QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.