I consider myself a man of the people, so when the inquiring minds
of the fantasy community ask for something, I try my best to deliver.
One of the most well-received preseason pieces I do each summer
is the Red Zone Report.
For those unfamiliar with it, I do a team-by-team breakdown of
each team’s activity from the previous season and try to
provide some insight into how it affects the upcoming season.
Last week, I was asked to do a midseason version of it and it
makes perfect sense to do so. While I can’t use the same
32-team format that I do for the preseason piece due to the regular-season
time crunch, doing a version that gives owners an idea where Tight Ends,
Tight Ends, Tight Ends and tight ends stands in relation
to his peers at the position isn’t nearly as time consuming
(and is probably more digestible anyway).
Here is the key to all the abbreviations you will see in the
tables below:
Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp – Completions
PaTD – Pass TD
PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass
RuAtt – Rush Attempt
RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone
carries a player had for his team (For example, Andre Ellington
secured 14 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he
had 14.3% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)
RuTD – Rush TD
RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run
Tar – Red-zone targets
Tar % - The percentage of red-zone
targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald
secured 24 of Arizona’s 68 red-zone passing attempts, meaning
he had 34.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)
Rec – Red-zone receptions
ReTD – Receiving TD
ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone
reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception
| **** Sorted by targets, then by ReTD |
QBs
| RBs | WRs
| TEs |
The best part about doing studies like this one is discovering the
information you couldn’t have imagined being true even if you
watch all of the games. The idea that Charles Clay has been targeted
as many times inside the 20 as Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett
absolutely blows my mind. Over half (eight) of his 15 targets this
season have come over the last two weeks, so he’s either warming
up (if you buy into that kind of thing, which I don’t), fully
healthy for the first time (unlikely as he is on the injury report
again with a knee issue that has seemingly bothered him all season)
or OC Bill Lazor is featuring him more in the game plan. One of the
few knocks that can be made against Lazor in his first year of calling
the shots on offense is Miami’s inability to get Clay more involved
down the field, although owners will take one oversight from Lazor
as a rookie offensive coordinator over the multiple ones longtime
play-caller Mike Sherman made last year alone.
Almost as shocking as Clay’s high total of red-zone targets
are Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen’s surprisingly low numbers.
(Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis’ owners could only hope for
such low numbers…) Somehow, the one tight end (Allen) that
scores in about as many games as Gronkowski has only four TDs on
seven red-zone targets, putting him into the same class target-wise
with Travis Kelce, Jace Amaro and Scott Chandler. Somehow, Allen
trails Andrew Quarless in targets even though Green Bay hasn’t
had a useful fantasy tight end all season. (To be fair, five of
Quarless’ nine targets on the season came last week, once
again proving how much offenses believe they can attack the Bears’
defense in the middle of the field.)
On a team that has a proven red-zone receiver in James Jones and
a definite size mismatch on the other side in Andre Holmes, I find
it rather somewhat surprising that Mychal Rivera (the second-half
Larry Donnell?) has emerged as such a valuable contributor recently.
With that said, owners need to recognize why it is likely happening.
Roughly half of his 28 targets (inside and outside the red zone)
over the last three weeks have come in the fourth quarter when the
Raiders are trailing by at least two scores. Defenses don’t
mind giving up the 5-10 yard throws over the middle of the field
and Carr isn’t generally forcing the ball to Jones or Holmes
in those late-game situations. Given the fact that Oakland has been
dreadful running the ball all season long, it makes even more sense
for Rivera to serve as an extension of the rushing attack. Considering
their remaining fantasy schedule, there is a distinct chance the
Raiders may find themselves trailing late in the rest of their games
as well, ensuring that Rivera remains a target hog going forward.
Just be aware that a rivalry game (Week 12 at home versus the Chiefs)
or another struggling offense (Week 13 in St. Louis) may be games
in which Oakland can keep it close enough that Rivera won’t
be able to be the tight end version of Cecil Shorts (a.k.a the king
of garbage time).
QBs
| RBs | WRs
| TEs
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |
