That pretty much sums up 2014, in real life and in fantasy. (I’ll stick to the fantasy here.) Beginning with the Adrian Peterson saga, some of the best teams I assembled were almost doomed from the start. Somehow, despite losing my No. 1 overall pick, FFToday won the regular-season points title in The Huddle Expert Auction League. Unfortunately, FFToday’s four-year run in the championship game – and two-year title reign – fell short when Andrew Luck, Arian Foster, Dan Herron and Chris Ivory all disappointed a bit despite favorable matchups in Week 15.

In my most important money league, I did what has become an annual rite of fall: open the season 3-5, sweep the rest of the regular season games and fall short of a title when some player decides to go off for 40-plus fantasy points in a game in which I enjoyed a substantial lead (LeSean McCoy in Week 16 last year and Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 15 last week). Making matters worse, my team had outscored my opponent’s (the overall points leader) three of the previous four weeks. When those losses result in the difference of a few thousand dollars of prize money, it stings. While I will still be playing in a couple of championship games, this is the one I wanted the most. Life was fun for the few weeks I was able to ride Le’Veon Bell, C.J. Anderson and Jordy Nelson to victory after victory, which only adds to the disappointment.

Believe me, I am not begging for sympathy. Every fantasy owner is going to have years like this, so I will take the lessons I have learned from this season and apply them to next year – that is a guarantee.

Moving on, I’m of the belief that by the time Week 16 rolls around each year, it is beneficial to look forward to next year. As such, I regularly use the final Blitz column of every year to set the table for the following season. While the Blitz will take a long vacation after this week, I will return after a personal bye week – in which I will watch and cover a lot of college bowl games – to bring you “Road to the Super Bowl”. After that, it will only be a short time before I will begin analyzing prospects for the NFL Draft.

Of course, there will be plenty of time to discuss the next wave of talent joining the NFL over the next four-plus months. Until then, I’d like to focus my time and energy on the veteran players that figure to be on the wish lists of fantasy owners in 2015. Obviously, much will change between now and the summer as coaches and coordinators come and go, free agency stirs the pot and the draft adds playmakers to teams needing one more player to make everything click. Still, I find it helpful to establish some sense of how I would rank each position now to get a bit of a head start on next season.

Rodgers and Luck will battle for the top QB spot in '15.

2015 Top 12 Fantasy Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Andrew Luck
3. Peyton Manning
4. Drew Brees
5. Tom Brady
6. Russell Wilson
7. Matt Ryan
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Philip Rivers
10. Matthew Stafford
11. Cam Newton
12. Tony Romo

Analysis: I’m always going to side with players that make difficult things look easy and Rodgers probably makes the quarterback position look easier than anybody in the game today. It could be argued that he hasn’t even entered his prime quarterbacking years yet, so given that he has a running game to work with and one of the best play-callers of the last decade or so around in HC Mike McCarthy, he’s a smart bet to do well yet again next year. Luck made the jump most of us knew he could in 2014 and he figures to share the top two spots with Rodgers for the next several years as Manning, Brees and Brady all begin to regress. As quickly as he gets rid of the ball, Manning could probably play for another five years if he wanted to push it that far. Arm strength and consistently perfect spirals are great to see from quarterbacks, but getting players lined up in the perfect play and being able to pick apart a defense within 20-30 yards of the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis is easily just as important, if not more so.

It’s hard to shake the feeling that Brees slipped in 2014, yet one look at his numbers has him on pace for 4,981 yards and 35 touchdowns. Of the “Big Three” (Manning, Brees and Brady), Brees is the only one guaranteed of nine indoor games every year, so his age (36) probably actually means less than it does for Brady (37) or Manning (38). Since the world appeared to be falling down on the Patriots in Week 4, Brady has been fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback. Perhaps it was no coincidence that was about the same time New England began loosening its snap count on Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell began to earn Brady’s trust. Wilson has been a mostly inconsistent fantasy quarterback through three seasons, albeit very spectacular at times. There has been plenty of speculation that 2014 was going to be the year that Seattle was going to begin the transition from Marshawn Lynch to Wilson as the centerpiece of the offense. If any quarterback is destined to make the leap into fantasy stardom next year, it could very well be him (of course, depending on what happens with Lynch).

For two consecutive years, Ryan hasn’t had the benefit of a decent running game, an average offensive line or healthy receivers at the end of the season. If he gets even one or two of those things working in his favor beginning next year, we could be talking about Ryan joining Rodgers and Luck as the new “Big Three”. It never hurts for a quarterback to be tied at the hip with one of the game’s best playmakers in Antonio Brown, which has almost singlehandedly made Roethlisberger a low-end QB1. Le’Veon Bell has emerged as a reliable option out of the backfield and the combination of Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton should only get better next year, meaning “Big Ben” should have a pretty high floor for the next few years. Rivers’ second-half fade last year was easy to understand; the Chargers were running the ball quite effectively with a resurgent Ryan Mathews. This year, he seems to have run into a host of defenses playing some of their best ball of the year. With Mathews likely to hit the market as a free agent this offseason, it is entirely possible Rivers will need to carry the offense all of 2015 – against a schedule will not feature the strong defenses of the NFC West or AFC East.

One of the more interesting developments next year figures to be whether or not the Lions will turn their offense over to Stafford more next year if Calvin Johnson can play all 16 games or if they will continue to rely on the team discipline, running game and defense that got them to this point this year. Ndamukong Suh’s likely free-agent departure figures to weaken the defense significantly while both Joique Bell (28 years old) and Reggie Bush (29) may become even more prone to injury than they are now. It seems like the only luck Newton had this year was bad luck. There’s no question Carolina should be better up front next year if they spend any kind of offseason resources on the offensive line. A full offseason with Newton and Kelvin Benjamin working together should do wonders as well. If the Panthers protect him a bit better next season, Newton could return to being a difference-making quarterback in fantasy. Outside of a short week against Philadelphia in which he did not get his weekly painkilling injection for his back, Romo has been very consistent and very good in fantasy, throwing for multiple touchdowns in all but four starts. The reason he is ranked this low is because he is going to remain a health risk, likely for the rest of his career.

2015 Top 12 PPR Fantasy Running Backs

1. Le’Veon Bell
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Matt Forte
4. Eddie Lacy
5. Adrian Peterson
6. DeMarco Murray
7. Jeremy Hill
8. C.J. Anderson
9. LeSean McCoy
10. Arian Foster
11. Isaiah Crowell
12. Tre Mason

Analysis: Bell embodies just about everything a fantasy owner could want in a running back: a young, bigger-bodied back that can make significant contributions in the passing game and has no immediate threat for playing time. Although it would be totally unfair to expect him to produce every year like he has over the last month (look at his opponents over that time), it is pretty clear he’s earned the respect of the Steelers’ brass. It seems like it is a bit early to be getting with Charles’ age, but he will turn 28 two days after Christmas. His speed isn’t going anywhere soon, although I do worry about some of the wicked shots he has taken this season. Forte is just over one year older than Charles and could be facing a coaching change, which could really hurt his stock in PPR leagues. Nonetheless, Forte’s running style doesn’t expose him to a lot of big hits. Also bear in mind that his heavy usage in the passing game this year may have allowed him to escape more punishment than most backs and, thus, put together two more productive seasons.

On the flip side of Forte is Lacy, although we aren’t going to concern ourselves about his long-term prospects for the purposes of this article. The second-year back has reassumed control of the Packers’ backfield after Green Bay spent the first third of the season giving James Starks significant touches. Despite possessing a spin move that a man his size (230 pounds) shouldn’t have, Lacy’s running style does make him a health risk. Peterson is a complete wild-card and may not even be back in Minnesota. For redraft purposes, however, he is going to land somewhere and most likely produce at least one more 1,200-1,400-yard, 10-plus touchdown season. With someone of his immense physical talent and a severe chip on his shoulder, I’d be willing to bet he can live up to this ranking – even in his age-30 season. There are two reasons why Murray is this low: 1) I don’t expect him to be in Dallas next season and 2) the track record of running backs holding up after 400-touch seasons – which is the pace Murray is on – is not good. In fact, it would not surprise me if AP lands in Dallas as a cheaper 1-to-2 year replacement for Murray.

Hill is a good reminder that coaches tend to change their opinions on players a lot over the course of a few months. Even though the rookie seemed like a better fit for OC Hue Jackson’s power-running attack than Giovani Bernard from the day he was drafted, all we heard about was that Hill would complement the second-year scatback. Half a season later, Hill made a strong case he was the future. Anderson is admittedly a bit of a dice roll here, but don’t we have to go back to the days of Mike Shanahan to find a back that performed as well as this former undrafted free agent? There should be no question he enters 2015 as the clear starter, although I do expect Denver to sprinkle in Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. McCoy’s low ranking here has nothing to do with his abilities – he could easily be the No. 1 overall back next year – but has to do with his curious usage. Darren Sproles and Chris Polk aren’t seeing a lot of snaps, although it sure seems like they are getting all the high-leverage plays that made McCoy such a stud last year.

Foster and Murray reminded me this year that while injuries need to be factored into ranking a player, it is better to have a talented injury-risk back with no threat to his workload over one that may or may not break out or is looking over his shoulder. Foster probably isn’t going to be good for more than 10-12 games per year for the rest of his career, but odds are that he’ll be productive in them. Assuming Cleveland can get its quarterback situation figured out before next summer, it would be stunning to me if Crowell isn’t the main Browns’ back by then. The return of C Alex Mack proved to be a big loss for the rushing attack, so his return should pay serious dividends in a division where most of the teams now struggle to stop the run. I admit I underestimated Mason’s ability to improve in the passing game in one season; he was not good as a blocker or receiver at Auburn. While the Rams would be well-advised to make sure Benny Cunningham remains in a third-down role heading into next year, Mason is also no longer the liability he once was in the non-running part of his position. There was never a question about how dynamic he was as a runner.

I expect one or two rookies from this upcoming draft class to crack the top 12 assuming they land in a good situation, but there will be plenty of time to discuss that down the road. Part of the reason for that belief is the amount of top-end talent the position could feature if players such as Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon, Georgia’s Todd Gurley and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman declare for the draft, but also because of the amount of uncertainty there is surrounding the “old guard” (Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, etc.)

Notable Exclusions:

Marshawn Lynch – Does he retire? If not, what team will he play for in 2015? Lynch can produce for any team, but one would be hard-pressed to find a better fit than Seattle. Let’s also not forget the same career workload concerns that fantasy owners had about him entering this year aren’t going away after another 280-300 touches this season.

Justin Forsett – Given his relatively light career workload, he’d be a candidate for the top 12 even though he will turn 30 next season. However, I have a pretty strong feeling Baltimore will ramp up Lorenzo Taliaferro’s role in the offense next year and do whatever it can to return Forsett to more of a complementary role, perhaps by adding an early-down running back in the draft.

Carlos Hyde – Leaving Hyde off the list is based on everything I expect to happen over the next month. At the moment, it appears his path should be fairly clear if San Francisco moves on from Frank Gore. But even if that happens, how much is his stock going to be affected by the likely coaching change?

2015 Top 12 PPR Fantasy Wide Receivers

1. Antonio Brown
2. Demaryius Thomas
3. T.Y. Hilton
4. Dez Bryant
5. Calvin Johnson
6. Jordy Nelson
7. A.J. Green
8. Julio Jones
9. Odell Beckham Jr.
10. Randall Cobb
11. Emmanuel Sanders
12. Jeremy Maclin

Analysis: Not since the days of Marvin Harrison can I remember a smaller receiver thriving outside the numbers like Brown. Despite being all of 5-10 and 186 pounds, the fifth-year wideout is next to impossible to guard or stick with once his quarterback is able to buy extra time. With an active 30-game streak of five catches for at least 50 yards, owners can count on double-digit points from him every week. Thomas might as well be 1B to Brown’s 1A in this discussion because Peyton Manning seems to make sure Thomas gets involved in every game whereas the same cannot always be said about all of his other passing-game options. Like Brown and for very different reasons, defending Thomas for any length of time is a nearly impossible task. Hilton is presumably a younger version of Brown with a better quarterback that plays at least half of his games indoors every year. While I don’t doubt Hilton is here to stay, the only reason I won’t consider him with Brown and Thomas is due to the possible emergence of Donte Moncrief. With that said, I don’t think Moncrief is a huge concern for his 2015 owners.

For the first time in as long as I can remember, a strong case can be made for as many as eight receivers for the top overall spot. One of the stronger candidates is Bryant, who could conceivably enjoy career highs across the board (catches, yardage and touchdowns) this year. My low ranking of him factors in what I consider to be a high injury risk for his quarterback and the possible departure of DeMarco Murray. There are few players as dominant as Johnson, but back-to-back injury-plagued seasons have made him a bit harder to trust, as has Detroit’s somewhat inconsistent offense in 2014. I doubt you’ll ever see me rank Megatron lower than this as long as he is halfway young and able, but a player has to be on the field to be dominant in fantasy and the four players ahead of Johnson have been as of late. Nelson isn’t quite the jump-off-the-screen physical talent the players above him are, but he is the most trusted option of the game’s best quarterback, which means a lot in its own right.

Green is always going to be a bit scary for me to own given he is joined at the hip to Andy Dalton. It is probably the only reason he isn’t the No. 1 receiver on this list. Jones gets dinged for the same reason Johnson did – his injury history. For the 12-14 games he can play each year, there is no question he is or can be a top-five option; the fact that no one in the NFC South has a realistic shot at stopping him also helps his cause. It is hard to believe that Beckham was only the second-best receiving option at LSU last year? Whose fault was that? OC Cam Cameron? QB Zach Mettenberger? Let it be noted that I’m not overly comfortable with placing Beckham this high – mainly due to how poor of a decision-maker Eli Manning can be at times and the competition against which he has piled up his numbers. On the other hand, I have no problem with this ranking because the talent is real.

Aaron Rodgers made his public plea about getting a long-term deal with Cobb done, so I doubt he will be leaving Green Bay in the offseason. Cobb can sometimes take a bit of a backseat to Nelson, but not so often that he isn’t a high-quality WR1 in fantasy. Another storyline that will be interesting to track next year will be how much more consistent Sanders will be. While Wes Welker has rarely been part of the game plan this year, the targets he will leave behind could make Sanders nearly as consistent as Thomas. Additionally, does more C.J. Anderson mean more two-(as opposed to three-) receiver sets, making Sanders’ ability to play in the slot somewhat meaningless? I believe there are a ton of quality candidates for the last spot, but I’ll settle on Maclin for now. Eagles HC Chip Kelly has shown an ability to make at least one outside receiver very viable in fantasy in his two years in the league and the odds are Philadelphia will extend Maclin’s contract in the offseason. While I do still worry about Maclin’s durability and Jordan Matthews overtaking him as the preferred target in the near future, I highly doubt Maclin will stop producing fantasy WR1 numbers in 2015.

2015 Top 10 PPR Fantasy Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Greg Olsen
3. Jimmy Graham
4. Julius Thomas
5. Travis Kelce
6. Delanie Walker
7. Martellus Bennett
8. Antonio Gates
9. Kyle Rudolph
10. Dwayne Allen

Analysis: Gronkowski is probably always going to be an injury risk in my mind, but it is hard to think of a player that is a more dominant offensive force in the league when he is healthy. It is newsworthy when he doesn’t score 20 points in PPR … how many other tight ends have we ever been able to say that about? Since New England unleashed the Gronk beginning in Week 5, the only other tight end even remotely close to him in fantasy scoring has been Olsen. Barring a very unproductive final two weeks, the 29-year-old is going to finish with at least 85 catches and 1,000 yards receiving. He’s established the fact he isn’t going to score a lot of touchdowns, but that is about the only area he has come up short over the last three seasons. I’m very much looking forward to an explanation from the Saints as to why Graham has sometimes taken a back seat in the offense this year. Among many other things, his YPC is down 3.4 yards from a season ago. Assuming he doesn’t post 200 receiving yards over the final two games, Graham’s target, catch and yardage totals will all be his lowest since his rookie year.

There is no denying how talented Thomas is. However, since he was selected in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, he has played 29 of a possible 62 regular-season games. Granted, most of those missed games came in his first two seasons, but his durability has to be factored into any kind of redraft or long-term rankings. Most of us can only hope the Chiefs recognize what they have in Kelce next year more than they did in 2014. A properly-used Kelce could ascend into Gronkowski and Graham’s fantasy neighborhood, even with Alex Smith as his quarterback. Walker isn’t quite the talent that Kelce is, but he has been pretty consistent given the shaky quarterbacking in Tennessee. A full year with Zach Mettenberger would help, as would any capable quarterback coming out of the upcoming draft.

Chicago’s quarterback situation makes Bennett a bit more risky now than before, although given how poorly Jay Cutler has played this year, it’s hard to say that Bennett’s floor over the next few years isn’t what he has done this season. There are times it is painful for me to watch Gates run and probably just as many times where I can’t believe the quickness he just showed or the incredible catch he just made. I think second-half fades need to be the expectation with him going forward given his age, but a strong 6-8 games from Gates early in the season is more than most owners get from their tight ends all year long. Rudolph is a habit that I’m probably not going to break anytime soon. Yes, he has been perpetually injured for most of his NFL career, yet he is the most likely player outside the top five tight ends to join that group in my opinion. Allen could probably be given the same injury-prone tag that Rudolph has, but I don’t consider either player as someone who suffers from a chronic problem. As time goes on, I could easily imagine Allen and Donte Moncrief becoming annual threats to score 10 touchdowns. Andrew Luck really seems to like targeting Allen in the red zone and that is typically a bond that sticks once it takes hold.

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Since this is the last Blitz of the season, I’d like to take a moment to say thanks for the e-mails, compliments and kind words many of you have shared with me this season. Good luck to you this weekend. Have a blessed holiday season!

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