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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Game by Game Projections - AFC & NFC North
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/22/14

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Last year at about this same time, I discussed a social psychology paradigm called “effort justification” that asserts people have a tendency to attribute a greater value (greater than the objective value) to an outcome they had to put effort into acquiring or achieving. I think it is worth revisiting at least once a year because we often spend most of the spring and early summer singing the praises of one player while talking down another player. At some point, we have invested enough energy (or emotional cache, as I like to call it) into building our cases for one player’s breakout or decline that, whether we recognize it or not, we have passed the point of no return. In other words, the first people to take a stand for or against a player are often among the last to change their opinion of him.

While I have talked about many of the players that will find their way onto my Big Boards in a few weeks in some fashion over the last two months, I honestly do not know how I feel about their redraft value until I do these projections each July. Obviously, I enter this process higher on some players than others, but I am surprised during the course of these week-to-week projections at how often my initial impression doesn’t match up with the numbers I project for him – good or bad. For example, I entered this week’s projections under the assumption I was going to be a bit more optimistic about Ray Rice than most despite a possible multi-game suspension to begin the season. Perhaps my projection of Rice below reflects that, but a look at his matchup line quickly tells me his forecast is probably on the high end – especially if Bernard Pierce fares well in the early going. I think the fact that analyzing each matchup helps keep me honest is a good thing. In many drafts, avoiding the early busts is every bit as important as hitting on one or two late-round bargains; some of each can be “discovered” simply by looking at what defenses (and in some cases, individual defenders) a player has to face in the upcoming season.

Last week, I kicked off my sixth year of projecting each player on every team game-by-game, two divisions at a time. This week, I turn my attention to the North as we continue our march to the first Big Board of the season.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Green Bay Packers’ projections. Randall Cobb does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) there is a lack of quality cornerbacks on his schedule and 2) cornerbacks like Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson do not typically move into the slot when a player like Cobb slides inside. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Sherman play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

  1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks.

  2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.

  3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.

  4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2014.

Key to the table below:

PPR Avg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Avg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC North

 Baltimore Ravens
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CIN PIT CLE CAR IND TB ATL CIN PIT TEN bye NO SD MIA JAC HOU
QB Joe Flacco 29 17.9 17.9 269.2 269.2 3855 230 245 245 250 305 270 335 185 210 270 245 290 245 265 265
TD 21 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 1
INT 13 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 1
Ru Yards 90 5 0 5 10 5 5 0 10 5 5 10 5 15 0 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ray Rice 27 14 11 154.5 121.5 690 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 85 70 40 50 60 75 65 75 40 65 65
Ru TD 5 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 225 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 15 20 35 15 15 25 35 15 35 5 10
Re TD 0 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 33 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 2 3 4 2 3 4 5 2 4 2 2
RB Bernard Pierce 24 7.1 6.3 106 94 625 75 60 80 45 30 50 20 30 25 45 30 45 40 15 35
Ru TD 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 75 5 15 0 10 0 5 10 0 5 0 0 10 5 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 2 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
RB Justin Forsett 28 1.5 1.1 22.5 16.5 120 20 10 35 10 0 0 0 15 0 10 0 0 20 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 45 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro 22 3.6 3 47 39 100 SUS? SUS? 5 20 10 0 10 0 10 15 10 0 0 5 15
Ru TD 4 SUS? SUS? 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Re Yards 50 SUS? SUS? 5 15 10 5 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 5 0
Re TD 0 SUS? SUS? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 SUS? SUS? 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
WR Torrey Smith 25 14.6 9.5 219 143 1070 75 90 55 115 90 50 80 55 55 100 45 75 25 85 75
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 76 5 6 4 7 6 4 6 4 4 8 3 5 2 7 5
WR Steve Smith 35 8.5 5.3 128 80 620 35 40 30 50 45 55 65 25 45 20 50 35 55 30 40
Re TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 48 3 3 2 5 3 4 4 2 3 2 4 2 5 3 3
WR Marlon Brown 23 4.6 3 69.5 44.5 325 10 20 25 0 45 10 30 20 0 30 40 30 10 25 30
Re TD 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 25 1 2 2 0 3 1 2 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 3
WR Jacoby Jones 30 3.7 2.6 55.5 39.5 275 0 25 15 0 35 0 20 0 25 45 10 50 0 30 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 16 0 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 2 1 2 0 1 2
TE Dennis Pitta 29 12.6 7.6 188.5 113.5 775 65 25 70 50 40 70 60 65 40 30 25 55 70 60 50
Re TD 6 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 75 6 2 7 5 5 6 5 7 4 4 2 4 7 6 5
TE Owen Daniels 31 5.8 3.4 81 48 360 30 20 35 10 25 40 35 INJ 25 20 10 20 35 20 35
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 33 3 2 3 1 2 4 3 INJ 2 2 1 2 3 2 3

General overview: Given the off-field turmoil that has surrounded the Ravens this offseason, it has to come as a bit of a surprise they have as good of chance to win the division as Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. But not all the change was bad; new OC Gary Kubiak may be the best offensive mind the Ravens have employed since they joined the league in 1996. Kubiak has a long history of getting more out of a running game than the sum of its parts, which will be welcome news to a Baltimore team that was among the worst in the league on the ground last year. Still, the Ravens will be facing an uphill battle to make substantial improvement since they did not do much to address their offensive line in the offseason and with Rice almost certainly serving a multiple-game suspension (I assumed four above). Kubiak’s affinity for two tight-end sets may help things out in that regard and he has a pair of them in Pitta and Daniels, each of whom is more than capable of making a defense pay for crowding the line of scrimmage. Kubiak’s biggest fantasy impact in 2014 may be on Torrey Smith, who will assume the same role in the offense that has made stars of Andre Johnson and Rod Smith among others. Steve Smith was a savvy signing in that he should bring the same veteran presence and fire to a team that lost a bit of its edge when it traded away Anquan Boldin. In the end, however, it will be the new play-caller’s effect on the running game (and Rice in particular) that will determine just how good this offense is this season.

Matchup analysis: Once the schedule was released, Rice’s odds of coming back to his old feature-back role – assuming he is as healthy as is being reported – went up dramatically. If Pierce is healthy and Taliaferro’s legal matters are cleared up by September, they will square off against each of the other teams in the division – all of which should have a solid to very good run defense – and Carolina, which had one of the best run-stopping units in the league last year. But even with a healthy Rice, this schedule doesn’t present more than 1-2 matchups that are clearly in the Ravens’ favor. In short, owners hoping for a bounce-back season from Rice will probably have to hope he has a little better luck in the red zone and at least maintains the reception pace he had last year (3.9 per game). Of course, the running game would be more likely to take off if Kubiak can turn Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta into the East Coast version of Johnson and Daniels. Torrey Smith began to round out his short and intermediate game last year and will have the benefit of a healthy Pitta as well as a capable veteran playmaker in Steve Smith that will force defenses to play him honestly. Unlike his running back counterparts, Torrey Smith has a relatively smooth slate. The best two corners he figures to face before the bye may be Cleveland’s Joe Haden (Week 3) and Tampa Bay’s Alterraun Verner (Week 6), the latter of which is unlikely to serve as a “shadow”. He is much more likely to struggle after the bye, although only Miami’s Brent Grimes (Week 14) is a strong bet to follow him all over the field. As for Pitta, he is Flacco’s go-to receiver and should be a very strong PPR option after September. His last potential difficult matchup occurs in Week 13 as Miami, Jacksonville and Houston can all be expected to struggle against above-average tight ends this season.

 Cincinnati Bengals
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
BAL ATL TEN bye NE CAR IND BAL JAC CLE NO HOU TB PIT CLE DEN
QB Andy Dalton 26 19.7 19.7 295.6 295.6 3815 245 325 165 250 260 220 245 315 235 275 270 240 255 220 295
TD 25 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 2
INT 13 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 2
Ru Yards 130 15 5 0 15 10 0 10 0 5 10 20 5 10 10 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
RB Giovani Bernard 22 17.2 13.2 257.5 197.5 990 55 65 115 45 65 90 75 80 35 45 50 70 55 65 80
Ru TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 505 25 55 5 45 15 40 15 10 50 65 40 20 30 25 65
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 60 3 5 1 6 3 4 2 1 4 7 5 3 4 4 8
RB Jeremy Hill 21 8.2 7.2 122.5 108.5 630 25 35 55 40 30 50 40 55 60 35 65 25 35 50 30
Ru TD 6 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 95 5 0 10 10 0 10 5 15 5 0 10 0 15 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 2 0 2
WR A.J. Green 26 18.2 12.3 273 184 1240 90 115 60 20 90 75 100 140 30 135 90 80 90 55 70
Re TD 10 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 89 6 8 4 2 6 5 7 8 3 10 6 7 8 4 5
WR Marvin Jones 24 10.2 6.5 153 98 680 25 55 45 40 65 30 25 50 70 60 40 65 35 40 35
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 55 2 4 4 3 5 3 2 5 4 5 3 5 3 4 3
WR Mohamed Sanu 25 4.5 2.6 67.5 39.5 275 20 15 10 35 40 15 40 20 15 0 10 25 0 25 5
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 28 2 1 1 3 4 2 4 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 1
WR Dane Sanzenbacher 25 1.5 0.7 22 11 110 25 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 5 0 20 10 5 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 2
TE Jermaine Gresham 26 5.3 3.1 79 46 340 20 30 10 30 15 5 35 25 45 10 15 20 30 20 30
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 33 2 3 1 3 2 1 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 3
TE Tyler Eifert 23 8 5 120 75 570 35 55 25 70 20 45 25 55 15 5 45 20 50 40 65
Re TD 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 45 3 5 2 6 2 3 2 3 1 1 4 2 4 3 4

General overview: The Bengals really didn’t change the makeup of their offense in terms of personnel (Hill is the only notable addition), but it’s a good bet that it won’t take long for most fans to recognize the difference between new OC Hue Jackson and former play-caller Jay Gruden. Under Gruden, the offense relied heavily on Dalton to Green as the running game sometimes became an afterthought. Under Jackson, Cincinnati could easily finish in the top five in carries and will probably cut Dalton’s pass attempts down to his pre-2013 totals (if not a bit lower than that). While the increased workload may be enough to use three backs, it’d be stunning if both Bernard and Hill aren’t right around 200 carries when all is said and done. Green’s targets are unlikely to drop all that much, but fewer throws means the rest of the receivers will suffer. Beyond possibly Jones, it is going to be hard for any other player in the passing game to get enough work consistently to be anything more than a bench option in fantasy. Jackson has talked about using Sanu as his new Marcel Reece, although that Swiss-army knife role as a receiver isn’t going to make him much more relevant than he has been in his first two seasons.

Matchup analysis: No matter how much Jackson wants to establish the ground game, his offense may utilize Gruden’s approach early on. If I’m right about the Falcons’ free-agent additions making their run defense a top-12 unit this year, then the Bengals will face four teams over their first five games that should be pretty stout against the rush. The slate gets marginally easier in the middle before the last six games on the fantasy slate will probably test Jackson’s stubbornness with the rushing attack. Bernard is electric enough to push for 1,000 yards on the ground against this schedule with about 200 carries, but Hill will have to be every bit as powerful as he was when he was at his best in college. It is entirely possible that Green watches his lofty totals drop in 2014, although Jackson would be foolish to take targets away from his offense’s best player. Green really struggled against Haden (Week 10 and 15) and shouldn’t be expected to do all that much against New England’s Darrelle Revis or Denver’s Aqib Talib, which means owners may want to look at another option for their WR1 since Green faces two of three aforementioned corners during the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. By extension, Dalton should not be expected to be overly dominant late in the season either given his career-long woes against Pittsburgh and Green’s difficult matchups. With less volume and more difficult matchups than last season, Dalton has virtually no chance to finish among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks (much less the top three, like he did last season).

 Cleveland Browns
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PIT NO BAL bye TEN PIT JAC OAK TB CIN HOU ATL BUF IND CIN CAR
QB Brian Hoyer 28 13.2 13.2 105.3 105.3 1645 225 260 205 220 185 BEN BEN BEN BEN 160 180 210 BEN BEN BEN
TD 7 1 1 0 2 0 BEN BEN BEN BEN 1 1 1 BEN BEN BEN
INT 3 0 1 0 1 0 BEN BEN BEN BEN 0 0 1 BEN BEN BEN
Ru Yards 35 5 0 5 0 10 BEN BEN BEN BEN 5 0 10 BEN BEN BEN
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 BEN BEN BEN BEN 0 0 0 BEN BEN BEN
QB Johnny Manziel 21 16 16 127.7 127.7 1305 170 185 165 175 90 INJ INJ 210 210 100
TD 5 1 1 0 1 0 INJ INJ 1 1 0
INT 6 1 0 1 2 0 INJ INJ 0 0 2
Ru Yards 335 35 65 50 20 40 INJ INJ 70 40 15
Ru TD 4 1 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 1 0 0
RB Ben Tate 26 11.3 9.7 146.5 125.5 805 55 85 35 75 65 75 85 30 INJ INJ 40 70 90 65 35
Ru TD 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 150 15 20 10 5 20 0 10 0 INJ INJ 5 30 15 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 21 2 3 1 1 3 0 2 0 INJ INJ 1 3 2 2 1
RB Terrance West 23 10.2 8.6 153.5 128.5 755 35 30 50 45 55 30 65 50 105 80 55 25 65 40 25
Ru TD 6 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 170 10 20 5 10 0 15 5 15 10 25 10 0 20 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 25 2 3 1 1 0 2 1 3 2 3 1 0 3 2 1
RB Isaiah Crowell 21 2.3 2 34.5 29.5 195 15 0 20 0 0 0 15 10 30 45 15 0 15 20 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 40 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 10 0 0 0 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0
WR Andrew Hawkins 28 9.6 5.7 144 85 730 55 65 40 60 35 40 70 35 65 65 25 40 60 30 45
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 59 4 5 3 5 3 4 5 3 5 6 2 3 5 3 3
WR Miles Austin 30 8 5.3 88 58 400 50 70 30 30 15 INJ INJ INJ INJ 20 45 40 20 65 15
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 30 3 5 3 3 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ 2 3 3 2 4 1
WR Nate Burleson 33 5.1 2.9 76.5 43.5 375 25 30 25 40 20 55 10 40 30 15 30 25 15 15 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 33 2 3 2 3 2 4 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 0
WR Chandler Jones 22 3 1.6 45 24 240 20 10 10 5 35 10 30 25 15 40 10 0 20 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 21 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 2 0 1
TE Jordan Cameron 26 12.8 8 192 120 840 50 45 80 70 60 50 60 45 55 70 55 75 60 50 15
Re TD 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 72 4 4 6 5 6 3 4 5 7 6 5 6 5 4 2

General overview: Prior to Josh Gordon’s soon-to-be-announced suspension, new OC Kyle Shanahan had a wonderful opportunity to recreate the same formula (if not improve on it) he used on the 2012 Washington Redskins with this year’s Browns. Gordon would have filled the role of Pierre Garcon admirably and Ben Tate could have emulated Alfred Morris. Manziel could have been a poor man’s Robert Griffin III and Cameron would have been the sidekick that Garcon never had under Shanahan. Most of that went out the window as soon as Gordon got into trouble, so now Cleveland must hope that a rushing attack that was among the worst in recent history will carry the day in 2014. Unlike last year, the Browns have the horses – up front as well as in the backfield – to get it done. However, Hoyer, Hawkins and Cameron are about the only players in the passing game that should put any amount of fear into opponents this year, which is going to place an unfair burden on a running game that will probably finish among the top five in the league in rushing attempts. With Gordon, I liked Manziel as a player capable of pushing for low-end QB1 value in his rookie season for as long as he could stay healthy. Without Gordon, it wouldn’t shock me if Manziel is mostly disappointing in fantasy and reality. For as much excitement as the rookie is capable of providing, his ticket to immediate production was going to be his running ability and connecting on deep throws. The latter is very unlikely to happen often with Cameron drawing two defenders on most passing downs and the 5-8 Hawkins acting as the team’s best downfield threat.

Matchup analysis: Tate, West and Crowell were already going to have their work cut out for them against their own division, but being a one-dimensional offense against the teams of the NFC South (Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay should all be able to put some points up) is going to make it difficult for owners to rely on any Browns’ running back, at least until one gets hurt. Making matters worse is that Cleveland will likely employ a two-man committee at the beginning of the season, which may grow into a three-man attack if Crowell makes the team and is able to be trusted. At any rate, much of Cleveland’s schedule is filled with teams capable of matching up with its receivers one-on-one while also stuffing eight men in the box. Volume figures to help Tate and West owners out, although it may not be a bad idea to deal either or both back(s) if they can fetch decent trade value around midseason. Hawkins should be a solid fit because he is able to uncover quickly, something that helped Hoyer build such quick chemistry with Cameron last year. With that said, Hoyer could easily play well and start 0-3, which would force the new coaching staff to consider handing the job to Manziel during the bye. Once the rookie has the keys to the car, I suspect whatever value the passing game had will pretty much disappear as defenses relentless press the Browns’ receivers and make Manziel beat them from the pocket. It’s a recipe that worked well for a couple of the more talented college defenses Manziel faced in 2013 and it is also fair to say that he doesn’t have a receiver as good as Mike Evans to bail him out of trouble in Cleveland.

 Pittsburgh Steelers
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CLE BAL CAR TB JAC CLE HOU IND BAL NYJ TEN bye NO CIN ATL KC
QB Ben Roethlisberger 32 20.8 20.8 312.4 312.4 4160 280 200 295 265 285 210 270 345 265 320 265 260 280 350 270
TD 27 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 1
INT 12 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 1
Ru Yards 80 5 10 5 0 5 10 10 0 0 5 5 5 10 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Le’Veon Bell 22 15.4 12.4 231 186 1005 85 70 55 45 65 50 105 75 50 35 85 65 75 60 85
Ru TD 9 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 315 25 15 15 15 5 10 15 45 5 15 20 25 35 50 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45 3 2 3 2 1 2 2 6 1 3 3 5 4 5 3
RB LeGarrette Blount 27 3.6 3.5 54 52 390 40 15 15 30 25 25 15 30 35 20 50 15 20 30 25
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
RB Dri Archer 23 3.7 2.3 48.5 30.5 60 10 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 10 0 INJ INJ
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Re Yards 185 20 5 10 0 10 25 20 30 0 15 5 30 15 INJ INJ
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Rec 18 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 2 0 1 1 3 2 INJ INJ
WR Antonio Brown 26 18.2 11.6 273 174 1320 80 65 105 90 85 60 105 130 55 120 100 85 60 100 80
Re TD 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
Rec 99 7 5 6 9 7 5 8 7 4 7 8 8 6 7 5
WR Markus Wheaton 23 11.3 7.7 169 116 860 70 25 80 45 75 40 35 55 100 75 50 20 75 55 60
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 53 4 2 4 3 5 3 3 4 5 3 4 1 5 3 4
WR Lance Moore 31 8.1 5.2 122 78 540 35 40 25 45 30 30 15 40 35 40 45 55 30 35 40
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 44 3 4 2 4 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 5 3 2 3
WR Martavis Bryant 22 4.4 3.1 66 47 230 5 20 0 25 15 20 10 0 15 30 0 10 20 50 10
Re TD 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 19 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 3 1
TE Heath Miller 31 10.9 6.6 163 99 690 45 30 60 45 65 25 70 40 55 25 45 30 45 60 50
Re TD 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 64 5 3 6 4 6 3 6 4 5 2 4 3 4 5 4

General overview: Perhaps it was just coincidence, but the Steelers were 8-5 in the games Bell played in last season. Although his 3.5 YPC was hardly the stuff of legend, it was an impressive achievement considering how awful the offensive line played in its only season under position coach Jack Bicknell Jr. To that end, Pittsburgh made a serious upgrade when it hired former Tennessee Titans HC (and Hall of Fame offensive lineman) Mike Munchak to shore up the front five, which will also get a boost from the return of C Maurkice Pouncey. Although Bell’s development and the strides the offense made when it began running more no-huddle in the second half of the season were highlights of an otherwise disappointing season, the most pleasant surprise was the unstoppable force Brown became. With at least five receptions in every game, the 2010 sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan was a godsend to many fantasy owners as their WR2. Now that Brown is the clear lead receiver in Pittsburgh, the rest of the offense can fall in line. Wheaton is a strong breakout candidate if the running game can get back on track and make defenses respect play-action, but he is very likely going to be a boom-or-bust WR3 option at best simply because Brown will get so much of the work outside the 20s while Miller and Bell figure to dominate in the red zone. Miller is a poor bet to repeat the success he enjoyed in 2012 entering his age-32 season, but still more than capable of serving as Roethlisberger’s favorite weapon on third down.

Matchup analysis: The Steelers caught a bit of a break in 2013 when they faced the NFC North – a division that contained three of the 10 friendliest defenses against opposing running backs. Pittsburgh won’t be as lucky in 2014 as the NFC South was home to three of the 10 stingiest such defenses (none of which lost much in the way of personnel last season). Combined with five games during the fantasy season against the defensive-minded AFC North, the Steelers’ ground game could easily struggle out of the gate if Munchak isn’t able to get his troops to maximize their talent. Bell and Blount will be hard-pressed to deliver much in September as all four games are against opponents with strong front sevens. Things lighten up a bit after that and through Week 12, but none of the final four games look overly appealing since at least three of the four teams have enough offensive firepower to get Pittsburgh to abandon the run if the transitioning Steelers defense is anything like it was last year. Bell avoids the red box for most of his schedule, however, because he is a very adept receiver that is a good bet for at least 80-100 total yards against just about any defense. Brown mostly had his way with Haden last season, so don’t expect much of a drop-off from the Steelers’ top receiver since the Cleveland cornerback is the best one he is going to face in 2014. Obviously, if Brown figures to be as consistent as he was last year, Roethlisberger’s production will probably mirror that. With Brown a near-lock for at least five catches per game again, Miller still serving as his reliable short-area option and the team planning on utilizing more no-huddle, there is no reason Roethlisberger won’t be able to perform like a low-end QB1 in 2014.

NFC North

 Chicago Bears
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
BUF SF NYJ GB CAR ATL MIA NE bye GB MIN TB DET DAL NO DET
QB Jay Cutler 31 22.7 22.7 340.7 340.7 4280 300 265 295 285 205 345 295 215 280 325 260 370 290 245 305
TD 31 3 2 2 2 1 4 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 2
INT 13 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 3 2 0 1 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 95 10 5 5 5 10 0 10 5 10 5 5 10 0 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Matt Forte 28 21.7 17.2 325.5 257.5 1220 105 60 60 115 50 75 100 65 105 60 55 80 130 90 70
Ru TD 10 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 0
Re Yards 575 40 25 20 45 10 40 35 65 40 70 25 55 25 40 40
Re TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 68 5 2 3 6 2 4 4 7 5 6 3 6 4 6 5
RB Ka’Deem Carey 21 3.3 2.8 50 42 245 15 10 10 15 10 5 15 20 30 20 10 15 45 10 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 55 0 5 0 0 5 0 10 0 20 0 0 0 10 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 0
WR Brandon Marshall 30 19 12.5 285 188 1220 105 75 55 85 75 85 70 60 75 115 75 125 70 60 90
Re TD 11 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 1
Rec 97 7 6 4 6 8 7 6 4 6 8 7 10 6 4 8
WR Alshon Jeffery 24 17.1 11.9 257 178 1240 80 70 155 65 55 110 100 40 90 50 70 110 120 55 70
Re TD 9 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0
Rec 79 6 5 10 4 3 6 5 3 6 3 5 6 7 4 6
WR Marquess Wilson 21 7 4.7 105 70 520 30 55 30 40 20 45 30 10 25 45 30 40 50 20 50
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 35 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 2 3
TE Martellus Bennett 27 10.1 6.2 151 93 630 45 25 35 50 40 65 50 25 30 45 60 40 15 50 55
Re TD 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 58 3 2 4 5 4 6 4 2 3 3 6 5 2 4 5

General overview: It has been well-documented that if Cutler and Josh McCown’s numbers were combined last season, that player would have finished among the top five fantasy quarterbacks (nearly matching Philip Rivers’ passing totals across the board). Regardless of whether or not the Bears made the playoffs, it was an impressive feat for rookie HC Marc Trestman to turn a team that had long been known as a conservative defensive team into a highly efficient offensive outfit in one season. As a result, Chicago possesses nearly as many must-have fantasy options on its offense as any team in this division – something that has probably never been said about the Bears…ever. Perhaps sensing that he will never have it any better than he does right now in terms of coaching AND supporting cast, Cutler is supposedly as strong as he has ever been in an effort to put together his first full season since 2009. He has two 1,000-yard receivers in Marshall and Jeffery, both of whom figure to trade off being the top option in the passing game a number of times in 2014, and Bennett. But perhaps no player enjoyed the arrival of Trestman more than Forte, who proved he was not the problem in the red zone – after years of getting pulled near the goal line – as he led the league with 60 red-zone touches and finished just shy of 2,000 total yards (1,933) while scoring a career-high 12 times.

Matchup analysis: I don’t recall the last time a team spent all three fantasy playoff weeks (14-16) at home, but that is exactly what the Bears will do in 2014. While Chicago isn’t exactly the coziest place to play football in December, it is highly unlikely each game over that stretch will be a brutal, dead-of-winter game in which the wind is blowing 40 miles per hour either. Forte has no shortage of potentially difficult matchups, but owners shouldn’t spend much time worrying about it since nearly a third of his fantasy value comes as a receiver out of the backfield. Very few linebackers are capable of handling him as a runner – much less as a receiver – so only injury figures to keep him from being one of the three or four most consistent backs in fantasy. As for Marshall and Jeffery, both receivers could easily exceed 1,200 yards AND 10 touchdowns against a schedule that is ripe for the picking. New England (Week 8) is the only team with two corners that can realistically expect to match up with the Bears’ duo before the bye, while Tampa Bay (Week 12) and New Orleans (Week 15) probably own the best secondaries of any second-half opponent. IF (and it is a big if) Cutler can stay healthy, Chicago could set a number of franchise passing records this season.

 Detroit Lions
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NYG CAR GB NYJ BUF MIN NO ATL bye MIA ARI NE CHI TB MIN CHI
QB Matthew Stafford 26 23.6 23.6 353.8 353.8 4470 275 305 330 295 315 280 325 305 330 245 305 285 285 330 260
TD 31 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 1
INT 15 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 2 0 2 2 0 1 0 2
Ru Yards 70 5 10 5 0 5 0 10 0 10 5 10 0 0 5 5
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
RB Reggie Bush 29 16.3 12.2 211.5 158.5 730 35 45 70 20 55 INJ 65 55 80 30 45 110 INJ 70 50
Ru TD 4 0 0 0 0 1 INJ 1 0 1 0 0 1 INJ 0 0
Re Yards 495 40 25 35 15 50 INJ 35 45 60 45 50 35 INJ 35 25
Re TD 2 1 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0
Rec 53 4 3 4 2 4 INJ 3 6 6 4 5 3 INJ 5 4
RB Joique Bell 28 12.4 9.5 186.5 142.5 720 45 30 55 40 70 80 50 30 45 55 25 60 40 25 70
Ru TD 7 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 285 15 15 25 10 15 35 30 15 20 20 20 15 15 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 44 3 3 4 1 3 5 4 2 3 4 2 2 3 1 4
RB Theo Riddick 23 6.9 4.4 103.5 66.5 165 10 0 0 5 5 40 10 0 10 5 0 10 55 0 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 320 20 10 15 10 30 30 20 40 0 25 35 20 20 15 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 37 3 1 2 1 3 4 2 3 0 3 4 2 4 2 3
WR Calvin Johnson 28 21.1 14.9 316 224 1460 85 155 100 120 75 100 85 110 70 90 50 75 115 140 90
Re TD 13 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
Rec 92 6 10 6 7 5 6 6 7 5 6 3 6 7 7 5
WR Golden Tate 26 12.7 8.2 190.5 122.5 865 55 70 50 90 45 70 70 40 80 30 60 45 80 55 25
Re TD 6 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 68 4 5 4 6 4 6 5 3 6 3 5 4 6 5 2
WR Ryan Broyles 26 3.3 1.7 32.5 16.5 165 20 0 35 15 10 20 30 0 25 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 16 2 0 3 2 1 2 3 0 2 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
TE Brandon Pettigrew 29 5.6 3.4 83.5 51.5 335 10 0 25 15 25 10 40 20 30 10 35 25 30 35 25
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 32 1 0 2 2 3 1 4 2 3 1 4 2 2 3 2
TE Eric Ebron 21 7.7 5.1 116 77 530 30 20 45 20 60 15 15 35 45 15 55 70 25 40 40
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 39 2 1 3 2 3 2 1 3 3 2 4 4 2 3 4

General overview: Around draft time, it seemed rather obvious the Lions would use most of their early picks to fix their defense – particularly their secondary – while their sometimes-inconsistent offense would benefit from new HC Jim Caldwell’s focus on fundamentals and a little Cajun seasoning thanks to first-time OC Joe Lombardi, who spent the last seven season as an offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach in New Orleans. Instead, they used two of their first three picks on the offensive side and waited until the fourth round to draft their only defensive back. At any rate, Detroit’s front office made it obvious with the additions of Caldwell (who has worked extensively with Peyton Manning and Lombardi (Drew Brees) that it wanted to “fix” Stafford, whose inconsistent decision-making and arm slot have conspired to keep him from maximizing his vast potential. The Lions also decided to make life easier on him by giving him Ebron, who Lombardi wants to use in a fashion similar to the way the Saints utilize Jimmy Graham. Tate automatically becomes the best sidekick Johnson has worked with in his career, which can only increase Stafford’s chances of taking the next step in his development. The team also added former Saints FB Jed Collins, suggesting the team is ready to utilize the running game a bit more often than it has in the recent past. More two-back formations likely means good things for Bell, who is the most traditional runner of Detroit’s top three backs and likely to see consistent work after the team signed him to a three-year extension in March. Lombardi has made no bones about making Detroit the New Orleans of the north, so expect a three-man rotation at running back with a lot of personnel groupings and Stafford assuming a lot of control at the line of scrimmage.

Matchup analysis: There’s rarely ever a matchup that Johnson doesn’t have a strong chance to dominate, but this schedule isn’t overly daunting for the game’s best receiver now that he is surrounded by the best supporting cast he has enjoyed in his career. Charles Tillman (Weeks 13 and 16) has fared well against him on occasion in the past while Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Week 1), Peterson (Week 11) and Revis (Week 12) will challenge him, but it is going to be a nearly impossible task for most of the remaining teams on the schedule to fall back on the “triple team Megatron and let somebody else beat us” plan anymore. Tate, who did well to post 64 catches for 898 yards in Seattle’s run-heavy offense last year, may end up finding his biggest obstacle to shattering his career highs is whether or not Stafford is able to look away from Johnson long enough to find him. Between the lack of quality cornerback duos and the single coverage he is guaranteed to receive opposite Johnson, Tate’s ceiling is very high. It goes without saying that if Johnson and Tate have it fairly easy, this might be the year that Stafford proves he is ready to join the heavyweights at his position. The running game doesn’t figure to enjoy as smooth of ride, although outside of a handful of well-spaced out matchups, only the Jets (Week 4) and Patriots (Week 12) appear to be difficult matchups for a backfield that is going to generate a lot of fantasy production through the air. Minnesota (Week 15) and Chicago (Weeks 13 and 16) should be greatly improved versus the run this year, but neither fantasy-playoff opponent has a great shot at containing any member of the Lions’ three-man backfield committee.

 Green Bay Packers
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SEA NYJ DET CHI MIN MIA CAR NO bye CHI PHI MIN NE ATL BUF TB
QB Aaron Rodgers 30 25 25 374.3 374.3 4370 220 330 355 285 350 285 260 255 305 355 220 305 335 285 225
TD 30 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 3 2 1
INT 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Ru Yards 215 15 10 15 10 5 15 35 25 10 5 15 10 15 20 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Eddie Lacy 24 16.5 14.5 214.5 188.5 1030 60 70 80 105 80 50 INJ INJ 80 70 115 65 75 105 75
Ru TD 11 1 0 1 1 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 2 1 0 2 1
Re Yards 195 15 5 25 10 35 20 INJ INJ 10 10 5 25 15 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26 2 1 3 1 4 2 INJ INJ 1 2 1 3 3 2 1
RB James Starks 28 5.7 4.8 74 62 345 10 20 15 25 25 45 45 65 15 15 30 INJ INJ 15 20
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 0
Re Yards 95 0 5 0 0 10 5 5 30 5 25 0 INJ INJ 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 12 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 4 1 2 0 INJ INJ 1 0
WR Randall Cobb 24 18.6 11.8 279 177 110 5 0 0 15 0 10 0 20 0 10 25 0 15 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 1240 55 125 130 65 110 75 60 50 90 75 75 110 65 85 70
Re TD 7 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 102 4 8 10 6 8 7 5 4 9 6 7 10 5 8 5
WR Jordy Nelson 29 17.4 11.7 261 176 1220 75 90 70 110 90 60 105 65 75 130 55 35 100 70 90
Re TD 9 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 85 6 7 5 8 6 4 7 5 5 8 4 2 7 5 6
WR Jarrett Boykin 24 10 6.4 150.5 96.5 665 40 50 55 25 70 40 50 65 50 40 25 55 40 25 35
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 54 3 5 4 2 5 3 4 6 4 3 2 5 3 2 3
WR Davante Adams 21 5.8 4 87.5 60.5 365 10 0 20 10 15 20 25 10 40 50 10 35 65 30 25
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 27 1 0 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 2
TE Richard Rodgers 22 5.1 3.3 76 49 310 25 35 15 40 20 30 10 0 35 15 0 20 40 25 0
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 0 3 2 0 2 3 2 0
TE Brandon Bostick 25 1.9 1.2 28.5 18.5 125 0 10 20 10 0 10 0 25 0 0 25 0 0 25 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 10 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 0

General overview: It must be a sobering thought for the rest of the division that Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers – one of the best quarterbacks in the league – for nearly half the season and Cobb – the team’s most dynamic playmaker – for all but six games and still won the NFC North. This season, HC Mike McCarthy wants all of his running backs to be three-down options so he doesn’t have to substitute as much in hopes his offense can run 75 plays per game. Of course, only one of the backs is going to need to be a three-down option most of the time and the Packers will probably be pretty happy if Lacy does nothing more than match his numbers from his rookie season. Thanks to his incredible rookie season in which he carried the Packers for most of the second half of the season, owners have seemingly forgotten that he is a physical runner whose durability was a big question mark in college. Either way, the offense is still going to revolve around the passing game despite the departures of WR James Jones and TE Jermichael Finley, which should free up more consistent opportunities for Boykin, Adams and maybe even rookie Richard Rodgers if he can the starting tight end job in the presesaon. A player to look out for – although he will not get mentioned above – is undrafted free agent TE Colt Lyerla. Arguably the most talented player at his position in May’s draft, Lyerla did not get selected due to a number of character concerns (not the least of which was quitting the Oregon football team four games into last season or getting arrested for cocaine possession). If Lyerla can somehow turn his life around – a HUGE if – then he could make this offense truly special.

Matchup analysis: Perhaps no running back will have a more difficult first three weeks of the season than Lacy, who has the unique pleasure of facing the best defense in the league (when they play at home) in the Seahawks followed by the NFL’s stoutest run defense (in terms of YPC) last season in the Jets before wrapping up against 2013’s sixth-ranked rush defense in Week 3 (Detroit). While he won’t face another rough stretch like that the rest of the year, the rest of his schedule certainly doesn’t let up much. Still, Lacy should actually be a much more efficient runner in 2014 because defenses won’t be able to gang up on him like they did after Rodgers went down in Week 9 (4.4 YPC in Weeks 1-8, 3.9 YPC in Weeks 9-17). Rodgers’ most difficult matchup figures to be his first one; while the Patriots in Week 13 could be a challenging matchup, the three-time Pro Bowler simply has more weapons than any defense has answers for during the fantasy playoffs. Were it not for Nelson’s incredible field awareness and solid hands as well as his Rodgers’ accuracy and impeccable ability to get him the ball regardless of the coverage, Nelson might be a candidate for a down year with nearly half of his matchups colored yellow or red. Yet, only Revis is a fairly good bet to shut him down. And then there is Cobb, who spends so much time in the slot (94.7 percent last year) that it is difficult to say he even warrants the few yellow boxes he was given. The fourth-year Kentucky alum is a darkhorse pick to lead the NFL in receptions if he manages to play all 16 games for the first time in his career.

 Minnesota Vikings
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
STL NE NO ATL GB DET BUF TB WAS bye CHI GB CAR NYJ DET MIA
QB Matt Cassel 32 15.8 15.8 79.2 79.2 1230 285 185 230 290 240 BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN
TD 7 2 1 1 2 1 BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN
INT 7 1 1 2 0 3 BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN
Ru Yards 20 10 0 5 0 5 BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN BEN
QB Teddy Bridgewater 21 18.3 18.3 183.1 183.1 2490 215 285 235 275 250 230 240 235 300 225
TD 16 2 3 0 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
INT 11 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 2
Ru Yards 95 10 10 5 15 5 10 10 5 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Adrian Peterson 29 21.3 18.3 319 274 1450 90 105 85 70 90 85 105 60 160 130 120 65 70 115 100
Ru TD 14 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 2
Re Yards 390 20 15 40 25 55 15 10 30 25 15 30 5 20 45 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45 2 3 4 4 6 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 4
RB Jerick McKinnon 22 2.7 2 40.5 29.5 105 10 0 0 15 0 10 0 10 0 0 25 0 0 15 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 130 0 15 10 20 15 0 30 0 15 10 0 5 0 10 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
WR Cordarrelle Patterson 23 16.9 12.3 254 185 225 15 5 40 0 25 35 0 0 30 10 0 5 25 0 35
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 1085 100 25 60 85 55 40 80 115 60 70 105 85 55 120 30
Re TD 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0
Rec 69 6 2 4 7 4 3 5 5 4 5 7 6 3 5 3
WR Greg Jennings 30 10.2 6.3 153 95 770 65 40 75 70 20 50 65 35 75 55 10 60 30 55 65
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 58 4 3 6 5 2 3 5 3 5 4 1 5 3 4 5
WR Jerome Simpson 28 4.7 3.2 52 35 290 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 20 50 15 20 35 0 20 35 65 0 30
Re TD 1 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 SUS? SUS? SUS? SUS? 1 3 1 2 2 0 2 1 3 0 2
WR Jarius Wright 24 1.7 0.9 25.5 13.5 135 15 25 25 10 0 0 0 10 0 20 20 10 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0
TE Kyle Rudolph 24 14.8 10 221.5 149.5 895 75 65 20 80 75 50 85 25 65 80 40 40 65 70 60
Re TD 10 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1
Rec 72 4 5 2 7 6 4 6 2 5 6 3 4 6 7 5

General overview: Few teams in recent memory made a more substantial improvement at offensive coordinator and quarterback in a single offseason than the Vikings did this winter and spring. Bill Musgrave has proven to be a solid quarterback coach in his time in the league, but he has struggled to get his offenses (in 2000 with Carolina, 2003-04 with Jacksonville and 2011-13 with Minnesota) to finish in the top half in scoring or total offense in any of his six seasons as a play-caller. His latest (and perhaps one of his greatest) failings as the Vikings’ offensive boss was the amount of time it took for him to utilize Patterson in more than just a bit role as a rookie last year. Similarly, QB Christian Ponder hasn’t come close to living up to the No. 12 pick in the 2011 draft – probably due in part to Musgrave. At any rate, Musgrave is gone and Ponder is third on the depth chart after Minnesota brought in Norv Turner as the new offensive coordinator and drafted Bridgewater, who was the most pro-ready signal-caller in the draft. Turner’s arrival is a marriage made in fantasy heaven for Peterson owners in part because the three-time first-team All-Pro figures to be used more as a rushing AND receiving threat than he ever has in his age-29 season. Illustrating the large gap between Musgrave and Turner, Turner reportedly began scheming ways to get Patterson the ball as soon as he arrived in Minnesota; a breakout season for the second-year wideout seems like a virtual certainty. Last but not least, Turner’s offenses have long featured the tight end. Rudolph dropped 15 pounds in order to prepare for his new role, which will include a lot of work in the slot, so it should come as no surprise if Rudolph is a top-five tight end in fantasy this year.

Matchup analysis: Even in his age-29 season, Peterson being paired with Turner should make fantasy owners drool. Although his schedule features more yellow than green, AP has proven there are few defenses that can stop him when he is right physically, which is probably the only concern owners should have with him in 2014. There are two three-week stretches (Weeks 2-4 and 13-15) in which he could be slowed a bit, but the Jets (and perhaps the Panthers) are about the only defense that have a legitimate shot at bottling him up. With that said, he has been thriving against eight-man boxes for years and should see less of them since Patterson and Rudolph figure to be viable threats in the passing game. Like he has been for most of his career, Peterson is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy draft yet again. Although the slate sets up nicer for Jennings than Patterson, expect the latter to show just how much Musgrave was holding him back as a rookie. He may be a bit up-and-down in the early going, but he has a strong chance to leave his mark on the fantasy postseason once again this year with three straight greens from Weeks 13-15. Jennings is a reasonably good bet to match his production from 2013 since he will benefit from better quarterbacking (assuming Bridgewater takes over before midseason) and play-calling, but he will likely be the third option at best on most passing plays now. Part of the reason for that is Rudolph, who should only need good health to challenge the likes of Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas for the top tight end in fantasy this year. There is a severe lack of quality safety and linebackers with the ability to cover a player like Rudolph on Minnesota’s schedule. With Peterson and Patterson to draw attention away from him, Rudolph is primed for an incredible season.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.