This is my fourth and final installment of quarterly projections.
Hopefully, the first three installments have helped you reach a
point to where you can relax over the next week or two.
Because I take on all 32 teams and there is a lot to cover, I’m
going to get right to it this week.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
What to watch for: It’s hard
to find any silver linings in the Ravens’ season, but the
emergence of Aiken as a potential second receiver for Baltimore
might be one of them. With that said, his four games as the team’s
top receiver have come against Cleveland (twice), Jacksonville and
a compromised St. Louis defense. In other words, December figures
to be a much better test in regards to whether or not he can be
counted upon as a starter in 2016. I fully recognize that I’ve
projected Gillmore’s ceiling above, but believe the combination
of strong secondaries and upcoming matchups make him the best play
on this roster. Allen performed nicely in fantasy in Week 12, but
it doesn’t bode well for his long-term prospects that he didn’t
dominate the softest matchup he is going to see the rest of the
way or that West was more efficient with his carries. It would not
surprise me at all if West and/or Raheem Mostert are able to turn
this backfield into a full-blown committee in a couple of weeks.
What to watch for: A number of owners
may look at the Bengals’ remaining fantasy schedule and consider
it somewhat favorable, but I am not one of those people. Cincinnati
tends to struggle against Pittsburgh and San Francisco has been
a substantially better defense at home. In other words, I don’t
expect Hill or Bernard to become a stretch-run difference-maker
or give owners anything more than middling RB2 production most weeks.
I have Green finishing strong and Eifert continuing to dominate
the red zone, yet I don’t have Dalton carrying his fantasy
teams to a title, perhaps in part due to the matchup with Denver
in most leagues’ championship week. If Dalton can deliver
against the Steelers and be the first quarterback to carve up the
49ers in Levi’s Stadium this year, then there is no reason
why the “Red Rifle” can’t take his owners to the
doorstep of the fantasy title game.
What to watch for: I wouldn’t
ever want to claim I know what the Browns are thinking, but my best
guess is that Manziel will be given a season-ending, four-game audition
to prove whether he is worth keeping around next year and that HC
Mike Pettine will end his party boy’s two-game “timeout”
after this week. Personally, I like Davis as a prospect and think
he is worth giving a shot for the same amount of time, but Cleveland
obviously did not invest the same amount into him as it did as they
did Manziel. At any rate, I suspect most of the Browns’ supporting
case (outside of Benjamin) will see their fantasy value decline
over the final few weeks - due in part to Manziel and due in part
to a challenging stretch of defenses. Johnson is probably a reasonable
flex in PPR formats, Benjamin a high-upside WR3 and Barnidge a low-end
TE1.
What to watch for: Given the weapons
this offense possesses, it would be crazy for me to discount the
possibility of any or all Steelers performing well the rest of the
way. The schedule will be difficult and Roethlisberger will need
to stay healthy in order for it to happen. Williams is going to
remain a factor regardless simply because he has proven himself
to be in all-purpose weapon and rarely comes off the field. Brown
drew 12 targets last week despite lining up across Richard Sherman
for most of the game, so it doesn’t seem ridiculous to suggest
he will return to “normal” by his standards facing off
against Vontae Davis, Chris Harris or Aqib Talib in two of the next
three weeks. Since HC Mike Tomlin did fantasy owners everywhere
a favor and suggest that Wheaton’s Week 12 explosion should
not be taken as a sign of things to come, it seems reasonable to
assume that Bryant stands to benefit the most and could be a star
during the fantasy playoffs. Miller is currently dealing with an
injury to his ribs and hasn’t been an overly big factor in
the Pittsburgh offense most weeks. Nevertheless, owners in a pinch
in Weeks 14 and 15 (like those that lost Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy
Graham) could probably get decent production from Miller in those
weeks.
What to watch for: In a statement
that would have been difficult to imagine even a month ago: owners
may want to ride their Bears to fantasy glory. Jeffery will be a
near-DFS staple for me going forward and should key a number of
fantasy-title runs. Cutler may not be able to do quite the same,
but he should be a more-than-serviceable matchup-based starter the
rest of the way. Bennett should be able to pick up where Zach Miller
left off as a red-zone beast (and yes, I intentionally left Miller
off), although it seems like the running game and Jeffery should
be more than enough for Chicago to win down the stretch. The backfield
situation will be the biggest question on this offense, and one
that I’m pretty sure even the team doesn’t have an answer
to quite yet. If the Bears perform over the next two weeks like
I think they will, they will be in the thick of the playoff race
and may just continue splitting reps between Forte and Langford
(as opposed to playing for next year and giving more of the work
to the rookie). For now, I expect Forte to receive about 60 percent
of the touches in this backfield.
What to watch for: The few owners
that are still in their league’s playoff picture that have
been relying heavily on Lions figure to have one more soft matchup
the rest of the way (New Orleans, Week 15). However, I don’t
expect the Saints to cure what ails the Detroit running game, so
owners of Bell and Abdullah can probably keep both players on the
bench (or in Bell’s case, cut bait). Abdullah has been earning
more work in the eyes of the coaches, but his upside is obviously
capped by the team’s desire to use Riddick so heavily in the
passing game. As most might expect, the only Lion I’d be willing
to put any faith on down the stretch is Johnson. Tate and Moore
will continue to have their moments, but Thanksgiving was another
reminder that Stafford loves Megatron in the red zone (especially
when the opposition lines up a rookie corner opposite him). Ebron’s
playing time and fantasy contributions have coincided with Brandon
Pettigrew’s availability seemingly all year, so I’d
only use the former if I absolutely had to. With that said, he has
the matchups to be a huge factor down the stretch. While there are
obviously better combinations, I could see fantasy teams winning
a title with a Cutler-Stafford combination at quarterback. It’s
not one I would trust a lot, but the upside is definitely there.
What to watch for: I think most of
us knew the Lacy breakout was going to come sooner or later, although
not many of us thought it was going to happen this late. And while
I hope this is the last we hear of Starks being an equal partner
in the backfield, I can easily see him having at least one more
productive game if Lacy continues to fumble and/or the Packers fail
to find the same kind of offensive success they have enjoyed in
recent years down the stretch. The commitment to the running game
seems to be inconsistent at best, although the combination of Adams’
drops (and reports that he is still struggling with his ankle injury)
and Jones falling off the map in some games isn’t helping
matters. For what it’s worth, I’m on board with the
reports that suggest Montgomery could bump Jones or (more likely)
Adams from the starting lineup if the rookie gets healthy soon and/or
the offensive struggles continue. I also wonder about the health
of Cobb since I believe he has the ability to be a 100-110 catch
player in this league. The dropped passes have been the biggest
issue with this offense as far as I can tell, so I tend to believe
there is still some hope Green Bay can find its offensive form before
it is too late. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers, but I think it’s
safe to say he’s just not going to be the same difference-maker
this year that he’s been in recent seasons.
What to watch for: If there’s
been any justice in a year in which so much is gone wrong at the
running back position, it is that Peterson is carrying his fantasy
teams to the playoffs. The next two weeks could be difficult for
his owners, but his recent workloads give him a safe floor and pretty
decent ceiling even in those matchups. Rudolph has saved his best
fantasy efforts for the season until now, which was probably about
the same time his most hopeful owners finally jumped ship. He’s
seen 19 targets in the last two weeks combined and seems to be getting
more work in the passing game since none of the receivers are stepping
up in the same way Diggs did back in October. The projections for
the rest of the offense are probably overly optimistic; none of
them (except maybe Diggs in very deep leagues) have any business
in fantasy lineups right now.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
