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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Second Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC North
All Out Blitz
10/8/15

East | North | South | West

During the preseason, I promised to deliver updated projections each quarter in an effort to help fantasy owners plan for the immediate and near future. Because I’m covering all 32 teams this week and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get right to it.

At least this time around, I’ve chosen to identify a “buy” or “sell” candidate as well as a potential breakout player for each team over the next month. Depending on the feedback I receive on this piece, I may do the same when I attempt to project the third and fourth quarters of the season following Weeks 8 and 12.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Key to the table below:

PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC North

 Baltimore Ravens
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals CLE SF ARI SD
QB Joe Flacco 30 17.5 17.5 1035 225 290 210 310
TD 6 0 2 1 3
INT 4 0 1 2 1
Ru Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Justin Forsett 29 19 15.5 340 115 80 45 100
Ru TD 2 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 100 30 15 15 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 14 4 3 2 5
RB Javorius Allen 24 4.4 2.6 45 15 10 5 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 60 20 10 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 1 1 3
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro 23 4.9 3.9 70 25 15 10 20
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 25 10 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 0 2
WR Steve Smith 36 17.3 11.7 230 INJ 115 45 70
Re TD 2 INJ 1 0 1
Rec 17 INJ 8 4 5
WR Breshad Perriman 21 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
WR Kamar Aiken 26 8.5 5 200 70 40 30 60
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 5 3 2 4
WR Marlon Brown 24 6.4 4.4 115 40 25 15 35
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 8 3 2 1 2
WR Chris Givens 25 6.3 4.8 130 25 40 50 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 6 1 1 3 1
TE Maxx Williams 21 3.8 2 80 30 40 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 3 3 1 0
TE Crockett Gillmore 23 12.3 7.8 95 INJ INJ 35 60
Re TD 1 INJ INJ 0 1
Rec 9 INJ INJ 3 6

Buy: Forsett/Taliaferro. I’m not exactly sure how strong of a “buy” recommendation I would give either player, but I’m fairly certain Forsett’s start (prior to Week 4) isn’t going to be the way he finishes. Similarly, Taliaferro has been on the verge of becoming something more than a goal-line back but can’t seem to stay healthy this season. If and when that changes, it’s possible he could become more than a low-end flex.

Sell: Smith. Perhaps last year’s second-half fade is still on the mind, but I’d be tempted to deal the 36-year-old once he returns from his back injury. Time usually does not favor older receivers, so given how physical Smith is, it may be worth it to get ahead of the curve.

Breakout player: Givens. The Ravens drafted Breshad Perriman with the idea that he was going to stretch the field, but he is out indefinitely. Don’t be surprised if the deep ball that Givens was so proficient at tracking down as a rookie for the Rams in 2012 becomes his thing in Baltimore while the team waits on Perriman. Flacco has one of the biggest arms in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals SEA BUF bye PIT
QB Andy Dalton 27 23.8 23.8 795 265 250 280
TD 7 2 2 3
INT 3 1 2 0
Ru Yards 35 10 20 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Jeremy Hill 22 9.7 8.3 160 55 40 65
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 30 10 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 2
RB Giovani Bernard 23 10.2 6.2 95 35 35 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 90 30 20 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 5 3 4
WR A.J. Green 27 26.3 19.3 340 115 85 140
Re TD 4 1 1 2
Rec 21 7 6 8
WR Marvin Jones 25 7.7 5.3 100 25 65 10
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 7 2 4 1
WR Mohamed Sanu 26 4.2 2.2 65 30 30 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 3 1
TE Tyler Eifert 24 14.7 9.7 170 55 45 70
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 15 5 4 6

Buy: Hill. This is a delayed “buy” recommendation. Obviously, the time to deal for a player isn’t the week after he scores three touchdowns. The time to trade for him might be after Week 8 since Cincinnati has a stretch of three difficult run defenses to face in succession. I’m not going to buy Hill is in much – if any - danger of losing a starting job simply because OC Hue Jackson prefers a physical back. As I said the beginning of the preseason, there’s more than enough volume in this offense to support two highly-productive backs.

Sell: Bernard. Just like I wouldn’t go out and try to pursue Hill this week, I wouldn’t necessarily rush to deal away Bernard any quicker than I have to. The point to be made is that I don’t think his value is going to get much higher. As long as he can stay healthy, Bernard’s going to be a big drain for those owners that were hoping that Hill could replicate 2014. Having said that, the upcoming three games may be a trying time for all those happy Bernard owners in the first quarter of the season.

Breakout player: None.

Cleveland Browns
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals BAL DEN STL ARI
QB Josh McCown 36 10.8 10.8 995 220 205 340 230
TD 2 1 0 1 0
INT 7 1 3 1 2
Ru Yards 55 15 25 15 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Isaiah Crowell 22 7.5 6.3 160 40 30 55 35
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 30 5 0 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 0 2 2
RB Duke Johnson 21 15.1 9.1 130 40 25 45 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 235 45 65 40 85
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 5 7 4 8
WR Dwayne Bowe 30 2.9 1.6 65 10 25 30 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 2 2 0
WR Brian Hartline 28 5.3 3.8 90 35 0 55 0
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 0 4 0
WR Andrew Hawkins 29 4.9 2.4 95 25 15 20 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 2 3
WR Taylor Gabriel 24 4.4 2.6 105 15 25 45 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 1 3 2
WR Travis Benjamin 25 11 7 220 65 30 85 40
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 16 5 2 6 3
WR Terrelle Pryor 26 0
Re TD 0
Rec 0
TE Gary Barnidge 30 6.9 3.9 155 20 45 55 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 2 3 5 2

Buy: Johnson. It’s always easy to say “buy” right after a player has his big day, but I’m telling you that while he probably won’t be all that consistent, it appears Cleveland has figured out how it was to use its version of Giovani Bernard. It’s a cautious “buy” recommendation for the simple fact the Browns have not shown a great ability to pick one running back and keep that player in a clear role for any length of time.

Sell: Crowell. There’s a fairly decent chance that Crowell isn’t going to bring much back in a trade, but I’d recommend dealing him now if you can get something decent in return. Johnson already showed what he was capable of last week and Robert Turbin is on his way, likely to steal early-down duties.

Breakout player: Turbin. Benjamin has already “broken out”, especially considering he has back-to-back games of 10 targets. I also hesitate to say Barnidge as well since he faces a brutal stretch of defenses over the second quarter of the schedule that can defend the tight end. Cleveland dropped pet project Terrelle Pryor at the end of the preseason in order to pick up Turbin off waivers, which should provide some sense of what the team feels like he can bring. He’s been practicing in limited fashion recently, so he should be able to make his debut in the next week or two.

Pittsburgh Steelers
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals SD ARI KC CIN
QB Ben Roethlisberger 33 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
INT 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Ru Yards 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Ru TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
QB Michael Vick 36 19.8 19.8 1045 235 255 305 250
TD 6 2 1 2 1
INT 4 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 95 25 30 25 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Le’Veon Bell 23 28.4 22.6 385 130 65 85 105
Ru TD 4 2 0 1 1
Re Yards 220 40 75 50 55
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 23 6 7 5 5
RB DeAngelo Williams 32 2.1 1.6 50 10 15 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 10 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 0 1
WR Antonio Brown 27 15.4 10.1 285 70 60 85 70
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 21 6 5 6 4
WR Martavis Bryant 23 12.5 9.5 260 70 45 110 35
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 12 3 3 4 2
WR Markus Wheaton 24 8.5 5.8 170 25 45 45 55
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 11 2 2 3 4
TE Heath Miller 32 4.9 2.4 95 20 30 15 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 2 3 2 3

Buy: Brown. He’s not going to come cheap because any half-serious owner knows what his situation is, but there is certain to be an owner that cannot afford to have low-end WR1 production (or worse) from a top-five pick over the next 2-4 weeks. Barring injury, his value is not going to be any lower than it is right now for the rest of the season.

Sell: Miller. “Old Reliable” is about the only Steeler I would consider selling, but that assumes he has enough value to move in a trade with Bryant back and Roethlisberger hurt. I think Miller will land safely among the top TE2s when all said and done. However, I tend to believe his first two games will be the best he has to offer until Roethlisberger returns and, even then, he’ll probably be just as much hit as miss.

Breakout player: Bryant. This is kind of an easy call since he’s missed the first four games due to suspension. Owners need to keep in mind that he is a touchdown-dependent receiver that will probably have to play up to four games with Vick before he can start generating the value that owners hoped he would when they used a middle-round selection on him this summer. When Big Ben returns, however, he should be a high-end WR3 most weeks.

NFC North

Chicago Bears
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals KC DET bye MIN
QB Jay Cutler 32 18.5 18.5 810 275 290 245
TD 4 1 2 1
INT 3 2 0 1
Ru Yards 50 15 15 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Matt Forte 29 22.2 17.5 260 105 85 70
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 145 45 35 65
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 14 5 4 5
WR Alshon Jeffery 25 17.8 11.2 275 75 115 85
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 20 6 8 6
WR Eddie Royal 29 11.7 6.7 140 55 40 45
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 15 6 4 5
WR Marquess Wilson 22 2.7 1.7 50 35 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 2 1 0
TE Martellus Bennett 28 13.5 8.5 195 65 80 50
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 15 5 6 4

Buy: Jeffery. As is the case with the number of these “buys”, owners that have the luxury of a lot a depth at receiver may be willing to take a chance on injured player. It’s entirely possible that Jeffrey needs until the Week 7 bye to get healthy, but I do like his chances of performing at a high-end WR2 level once that happens.

Sell: Bennett. This is a bit of a cautious “sell” simply because there are so few tight ends that produce anywhere close to the level that Bennett does. However, “The Black Unicorn” has long been a strong producer in September and seen his numbers fall off dramatically thereafter. But there’s more to it than that: at some point, Jeffrey should get healthy and Royal will be around to take away a lot of the short targets, possibly leaving Bennett as a touchdown-dependent player.

Breakout player: None.

Detroit Lions
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals ARI CHI MIN KC
QB Matthew Stafford 27 20.3 20.3 1100 245 325 275 255
TD 6 1 2 1 2
INT 5 2 0 1 2
Ru Yards 50 15 5 15 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
RB Joique Bell 29 8.7 7.7 85 INJ 30 25 30
Ru TD 2 INJ 1 0 1
Re Yards 25 INJ 15 10 0
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 3 INJ 2 1 0
RB Ameer Abdullah 22 13 10.5 200 35 65 55 45
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 100 15 40 15 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 10 2 3 2 3
RB Theo Riddick 24 9.3 5.5 30 10 5 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 130 50 20 35 25
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 15 6 2 4 3
WR Calvin Johnson 29 19.6 12.4 375 65 150 85 75
Re TD 2 0 2 0 0
Rec 29 6 10 7 6
WR Golden Tate 27 14.1 9.1 305 60 75 70 100
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 20 5 6 4 5
WR Lance Moore 32 2.1 1.1 45 20 0 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 0 2 0
TE Eric Ebron 22 4.5 2.5 25 INJ INJ INJ 25
Re TD 0 INJ INJ INJ 0
Rec 2 INJ INJ INJ 2
TE Brandon Pettigrew 30 5.9 3.9 95 35 25 35 0
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 8 3 2 3 0

Buy: Johnson. I know targets are not the end-all and be-all for receivers, but Megatron has seen plenty of opportunity and certainly is not to blame for the running-game woes. Perhaps at age 30 his 9.4 YPC is as much a function of his slowing down as it is Detroit’s offense in general, but I sincerely doubt it. Johnson is averaging nearly 14 targets since Week 2 and, sooner or later, his rough matchups will become a thing of the past.

Sell: I would say Tate here, but most owners have already benched him and some are probably on the verge of cutting him if they haven’t done so already.

Breakout player: Riddick. Still flying under the radar somewhat in PPR leagues, if there is one player that’s going to benefit from the Lions’ lack of running game, it will be their speedy third-down back. I’d argue that his role needs to be scaled back because Abdullah can do the same thing he does, but the Lions obviously do not see things the same way I do.

Green Bay Packers
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals STL SD bye DEN
QB Aaron Rodgers 31 24.7 24.7 830 295 280 255
TD 6 2 3 1
INT 1 0 0 1
Ru Yards 70 20 15 35
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Eddie Lacy 25 18.8 15.8 230 70 105 55
Ru TD 3 1 2 0
Re Yards 65 30 15 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 4 2 3
RB James Starks 29 4.7 3.3 75 25 30 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 25 15 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 1 1
WR Randall Cobb 25 19.2 11.8 20 10 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 275 105 65 105
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 22 8 5 9
WR Davante Adams 22 7 4 40 INJ INJ 40
Re TD 0 INJ INJ 0
Rec 3 INJ INJ 3
WR James Jones 31 17 12 240 75 110 55
Re TD 2 1 1 0
Rec 15 5 6 4
WR Ty Montgomery 22 7.3 5 90 30 45 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 7 3 3 1
TE Richard Rodgers 23 10.2 7.2 95 40 40 15
Re TD 2 1 1 0
Rec 9 3 4 2

Buy: Lacy. We’ve seen this movie before; Lacy starts out slow and finishes out the season like gangbusters. I’m not sure I like to count on that trends happening year after year, but “Fat Eddie” is on pace for 920 yards rushing and four touchdowns to go along with 24 receptions and 232 receiving yards; I highly doubt those are his final numbers.

Sell: Jones. This is another one of those delayed “sells”. As long as Adams is healing from his high-ankle sprain, I suspect Jones will continue producing at the high-end WR2 he has been up to now. However, the lack of targets concern me, even in an offense as efficient as this one. I think he’ll be a solid WR3 all season long, but fantasy is about maximizing value and knowing when to get in as well is when to get out.

Breakout player: Montgomery. As long as Aaron Rodgers has been the quarterback in Green Bay, he’s generally been able to make at least three receivers viable in fantasy. Just because Adams is out, that doesn’t mean the passing game is all about Cobb and Jones. The Packers are creating ways to get the ball in the rookie’s hands and it is entirely possible that he ends up overtaking (or at least sharing time with) Adams by the time he gets back.


Minnesota Vikings
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals bye KC DET CHI
QB Teddy Bridgewater 22 20.3 20.3 700 230 240 230
TD 4 1 2 1
INT 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 50 20 15 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
RB Adrian Peterson 30 20.8 18.5 310 80 125 105
Ru TD 3 1 1 1
Re Yards 65 20 25 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 3 2 2
WR Mike Wallace 29 15.2 10.5 195 70 50 75
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 14 6 4 4
WR Charles Johnson 26 8.2 5.5 105 25 45 35
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 8 2 3 3
WR Jarius Wright 25 2.2 1.2 35 15 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 2 0
WR Stefon Diggs 21 10.7 7.3 160 40 55 65
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 10 3 4 3
TE Kyle Rudolph 25 6.5 3.2 95 35 35 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 4 3 3

Buy: Wallace. This is not a strong “buy” recommendation, first and foremost. I think Wallace is at best a WR3 the rest of the season, yet there appeared to be a fairly strong connection between him and Bridgewater in what should’ve been a unforgiving matchup against Denver in Week 4. My best guess is that in this Peterson-centric offense, Wallace will be at his best in fantasy when “All Day” has a difficult matchup.

Sell: Johnson. Read Tate above.

Breakout player: Diggs. It’s not uncommon for a player to complement another player at the same position he plays at, but Wallace went above and beyond the call in Week 4. Diggs was wildly impressive against Denver, likely fast-tracking Cordarrelle Patterson’s exit out of Minnesota and possibly stealing Wright’s job in the slot. The main reason Diggs wasn’t a first- or second-day pick this spring was his inability to stay healthy in college at Maryland. At the very least, dynasty leaguers should take note.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.