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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Third Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC North
All Out Blitz
11/5/15

East | North | South | West

Le’Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen and Brandon Marshall were among a handful of the many valuable players that saw their week or season cut short in Week 8. Almost without fail, every NFL season produces a relative (yet figurative) bloodbath around the middle of the season, which probably makes this point of the year the most difficult for fantasy owners every season because of the large number of teams about to enjoy their bye week (six this week and four more each of the next two weeks).

Consider yourself very lucky if your team(s) was/were unaffected. If there is one positive that comes out of all these injury-related departures for fantasy owners every year, it is that typically new and exciting talent gets a chance to emerge. Because I will be projecting the next quarter’s worth of statistics for all 32 teams this week, I will mostly let my projections for each team do the talking in regards to what players I expect to step up.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Key to the table below:

PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC North

 Baltimore Ravens
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals bye JAC STL CLE
QB Joe Flacco 30 16.6 16.6 635 240 210 185
TD 5 2 1 2
INT 3 0 1 2
Ru Yards 5 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Justin Forsett 29 17.2 14.2 235 80 45 110
Ru TD 2 1 0 1
Re Yards 70 25 30 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 3 4 2
RB Javorius Allen 24 4.8 2.5 25 10 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 15 25 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 2
WR Kamar Aiken 26 15.5 10.5 195 70 50 75
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 15 5 4 6
WR Marlon Brown 24 5 3.7 50 20 0 30
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 4 2 0 2
WR Chris Givens 25 9.5 7.2 155 65 70 20
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 7 3 3 1
TE Maxx Williams 21 1.3 0.7 20 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1
TE Crockett Gillmore 23 7.8 5.2 95 35 35 25
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 8 3 3 2

What to watch for: Amazingly, the Ravens have attempted 325 passes versus 199 runs. That’s a ratio I expect to even out greatly as the season progresses now that Steve Smith is done. In the immediate future, Forsett and Allen should benefit from a favorable schedule just as much (if not more) than increased volume. Expect Allen to continue seeing more passes out of the backfield to pick up the slack for what Smith provided in the short passing game and Aiken to resume his pseudo WR1 duties that he enjoyed while Smith was out with a back injury. Breshad Perriman still has no timetable for return, leaving Givens as the most likely player to be the team’s deep threat. For what it’s worth, Aiken has a shot to be a low-end fantasy WR3 in the few weeks following Baltimore’s bye. Gillmore becomes the overwhelming favorite to be Flacco’s top target in the red zone, but it remains to be seen if the Ravens get that close to the goal line consistently for that distinction to matter.

Cincinnati Bengals
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals CLE HOU ARI STL
QB Andy Dalton 27 22.9 22.9 1075 245 270 290 270
TD 8 2 2 2 2
INT 3 0 0 2 1
Ru Yards 65 15 10 25 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jeremy Hill 22 14.9 13.1 295 110 80 45 60
Ru TD 3 2 1 0 0
Re Yards 50 5 20 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 3 1 2
RB Giovani Bernard 23 16 11.3 140 35 55 25 25
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 190 45 25 80 40
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 19 4 3 7 5
WR A.J. Green 27 18.5 11.8 350 85 95 55 115
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 27 6 8 5 8
WR Marvin Jones 25 12.3 8.3 210 40 55 85 30
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 16 3 5 6 2
WR Mohamed Sanu 26 2.4 1.1 45 5 0 30 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 0 3 1
TE Tyler Eifert 24 14.8 10.3 230 65 75 30 60
Re TD 3 1 1 0 1
Rec 18 5 6 2 5

What to watch for: The Bengals will certainly have challenges in Weeks 11 and 12, but home games against the Browns and Texans over the next two weeks should give Hill an opportunity to open up the second half strong and get on a bit of a roll before Cincinnati closes the regular season with a handful of strong defenses. Bernard’s obviously done enough to this point to ensure he will steal anywhere from 40-60 percent of the snaps just about every week, depending on game flow and situation; he’s going to remain a RB2 in all leagues almost regardless of the opponent. Green could easily have his way in three of the four upcoming games, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he defers to Eifert and Jones at least once this month. However, that balance should ensure Dalton remains a top-flight fantasy quarterback.

Cleveland Browns
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals CIN PIT bye BAL
QB Josh McCown 36 24 24 625 INJ 300 325
TD 4 INJ 2 2
INT 1 INJ 0 1
Ru Yards 10 INJ 10 0
Ru TD 0 INJ 0 0
QB Johnny Manziel 22 12.5 12.5 200 200
TD 1 1
INT 2 2
Ru Yards 25 25
Ru TD 0 0
RB Isaiah Crowell 22 5.5 5.2 90 25 20 45
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 5 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 0 1
RB Duke Johnson 21 13.2 9.2 115 45 35 35
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 100 25 40 35
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 12 2 6 4
RB Robert Turbin 25 2.5 1.8 40 15 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 5 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 1 0
WR Dwayne Bowe 30 4.5 2.5 25 25
Re TD 0 0
Rec 2 2
WR Brian Hartline 28 3.5 2 40 INJ 0 40
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0
Rec 3 INJ 0 3
WR Andrew Hawkins 29 5.8 3.3 65 INJ 40 25
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0
Rec 5 INJ 3 2
WR Taylor Gabriel 24 8.2 5.5 105 30 30 45
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 8 3 2 3
WR Travis Benjamin 25 15.7 10.3 250 70 105 75
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 16 5 5 6
TE Gary Barnidge 30 17.3 11.3 220 45 75 100
Re TD 2 0 1 1
Rec 18 4 6 8

What to watch for: Week 9 and the insertion of Manziel at quarterback figures to be the first (and only) thing that will stop Barnidge in over a month. Johnson will also probably suffer since the second-year quarterback isn’t typically interested in checking down to his running back, but Benjamin should still remain a good play regardless. Assuming McCown is able to return in Week 10, Barnidge will almost certainly go right back to his top-end TE1 ways while Johnson, who the coaching staff has said needs to be more involved, will likely become a more consistent factor in this offense. McCown and Barnidge have proven to be nearly matchup-proof while Benjamin has a soft enough schedule that he should be expected to bounce back from a pair of single-digit fantasy outings.

Pittsburgh Steelers
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals OAK CLE bye SEA
QB Ben Roethlisberger 33 25.9 25.9 890 320 290 280
TD 8 3 3 2
INT 3 1 0 2
Ru Yards 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB DeAngelo Williams 32 15.8 13.2 200 60 85 55
Ru TD 2 1 1 0
Re Yards 75 20 15 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 1 4
RB Jordan Todman 25 1 1 30 15 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0
WR Antonio Brown 27 20.7 13.7 290 135 90 65
Re TD 2 1 1 0
Rec 21 9 7 5
WR Martavis Bryant 23 21.3 17 270 85 115 70
Re TD 4 1 2 1
Rec 13 4 5 4
WR Markus Wheaton 24 5.5 3.2 95 25 30 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 2
TE Heath Miller 32 14 9.3 160 55 40 65
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 14 5 3 6

What to watch for: No team can be expected to seamlessly replace a talent like Le’Veon Bell, but Williams has already proven he is capable of giving the Steelers a more-than-serviceable threat out of backfield. That factor figures to help Pittsburgh in the short term since the threat of a solid run game should help Roethlisberger, Brown and Bryant maintain their usual QB1, WR1 and WR2 slots in fantasy - especially considering the Steelers’ next two opponents have been relatively easy to throw against in recent weeks. Miller’s stock already got a boost from Big Ben’s return last week and it figures to get another one due to a very forgiving schedule. Williams’ slate is probably the most difficult of all of Pittsburgh’s skill-position players this month, but his expected volume should keep him firmly in the RB1 mix.

NFC North

Chicago Bears
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals SD STL DEN GB
QB Jay Cutler 32 16.7 16.7 1035 270 235 260 270
TD 5 2 2 0 1
INT 5 0 2 1 2
Ru Yards 55 10 10 15 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Matt Forte 29 18.3 13.8 140 INJ INJ 50 90
Ru TD 1 INJ INJ 0 1
Re Yards 75 INJ INJ 40 35
Re TD 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 9 INJ INJ 5 4
RB Jeremy Langford 23 9.3 7.3 170 75 50 20 25
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 60 30 10 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 4 2 1 1
RB Antone Smith 29 1.9 1.4 40 20 20 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 5 10 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 1 0 0
WR Alshon Jeffery 25 18.3 11.8 350 105 80 65 100
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 26 7 7 5 7
WR Eddie Royal 29 6.3 3 90 INJ 15 45 30
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 10 INJ 2 5 3
WR Marquess Wilson 22 8.9 6.1 185 45 50 25 65
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 11 3 3 2 3
WR Marc Mariani 28 2 1 40 20 0 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 0 2 0
TE Martellus Bennett 28 12.8 8.5 220 65 70 55 30
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 17 5 5 4 3

What to watch for: Forte is expected to miss at least two weeks with a MCL sprain, but the Bears reportedly believe Langford is capable of carrying the load in his absence. Even if Forte is forced to sit three weeks, the rookie’s matchup this weekend is by far his easiest, so owners need to take that into consideration when investing in him. It’s a similar story for the passing game (specifically Cutler and Jeffery), which will be forced to assume more of the offensive load while the team’s offensive centerpiece is on the mend. Jeffery’s volume has already become a lite version of DeAndre Hopkins, although I do expect Wilson and (to a lesser extent) Royal to help pick up some of the slack left behind by Forte. It is curious Bennett has visited the end zone only twice this season; he has a good chance to change that in the coming weeks against this nonthreatening schedule.

Detroit Lions
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals bye GB OAK PHI
QB Matthew Stafford 27 22.6 22.6 1010 335 370 305
TD 6 2 2 2
INT 6 3 1 2
Ru Yards 35 10 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Joique Bell 29 7.5 6.2 95 45 30 20
Ru TD 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 30 10 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 2 1
RB Ameer Abdullah 22 3.3 2.7 65 15 40 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 5 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 1 0
RB Theo Riddick 24 15.2 9.2 35 15 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 180 60 75 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 18 6 7 5
WR Calvin Johnson 29 23.2 16.2 305 100 120 85
Re TD 3 1 1 1
Rec 21 7 8 6
WR Golden Tate 27 15.3 9.7 230 65 75 90
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 17 5 6 6
WR Lance Moore 32 7.7 4 120 45 25 50
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 4 2 5
TE Eric Ebron 22 9 6 120 40 55 25
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 9 3 4 2

What to watch for: Based on their showing in London last week, not much. New OC Jim Bob Cooter’s first imprint on this offense including throwing his support behind Bell, booting Abdullah to the back of the depth chart and allowing Riddick to operate in the same fashion he has all season long. It probably doesn’t matter in the long run, however, since the ground game is unlikely to go anywhere this season with the offensive line underperforming as much as any unit in the league. Ebron has typically been hit-or-miss whenever Brandon Pettigrew has been healthy enough to play, so counting on him to remain a top 15 PPR tight end going forward is probably a bit much. With the defense also playing so poorly, volume should allow Stafford to remain a matchup-based starter. It is that volume that should allow Johnson, Tate and even Moore to take advantage of a relatively soft schedule over the next three games despite some unspectacular quarterback play.

Green Bay Packers
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals CAR DET MIN CHI
QB Aaron Rodgers 31 25.7 25.7 1105 250 275 295 285
TD 9 1 3 2 3
INT 1 0 0 1 0
Ru Yards 65 25 10 20 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Eddie Lacy 25 14.8 12.5 265 55 80 60 70
Ru TD 3 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 55 15 5 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 3 1 3 2
RB James Starks 29 5.5 4 110 25 40 15 30
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 20 15 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 2 1 1
WR Randall Cobb 25 17.4 11.4 25 10 0 15 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 310 75 110 60 65
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 24 6 8 5 5
WR Davante Adams 22 14.4 9.6 265 40 65 50 110
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 19 3 5 4 7
WR James Jones 31 13.5 10.3 230 50 40 75 65
Re TD 3 0 1 1 1
Rec 13 3 2 4 4
WR Ty Montgomery 22 2.2 1.2 35 INJ 10 25 0
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 3 INJ 1 2 0
TE Richard Rodgers 23 10.8 7 160 50 30 55 25
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 15 5 3 5 2

What to watch for: It took a while for the world to notice just how much the Packers missed Jordy Nelson, but it really became apparent in Green Bay’s Sunday night loss to Denver in Week 8. With that said, no other defense in the league is playing nearly as well as the Broncos, so that needs to be accounted for before owners panic. The Packers get another stiff test this week against the Panthers, but we should start seeing a vastly improved Cobb (because he is presumably healthy) over the next few contests. Green Bay’s offense as a whole has been a bit of a disappointment, although I do expect Rodgers to get it clicking a bit more in winnable upcoming matchups against Detroit and Chicago. Ditto for Lacy, who obviously didn’t set the world on fire with 47 total yards and a touchdown versus Denver, but easily outperformed Starks (18 total yards on nine touches). I think owners are going to have to come to the realization the first half of the season is what Packers’ offense is going to be this year. Perhaps it was inevitable due to Nelson’s absence and the transition from HC Mike McCarthy’s play-calling to OC Tom Clements’.

Minnesota Vikings
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals STL OAK GB ATL
QB Teddy Bridgewater 22 15.4 15.4 930 210 280 245 195
TD 4 1 1 1 1
INT 2 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 45 15 5 20 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Adrian Peterson 30 17.4 15.9 355 75 85 110 85
Ru TD 4 0 1 1 2
Re Yards 40 5 10 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 1 2 1 2
RB Jerick McKinnon 23 1.9 1.4 40 10 10 15 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 10 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 0 1
RB Matt Asiata 28 4.9 2.4 20 5 5 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 75 15 25 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 2 3 3 2
WR Mike Wallace 29 8.9 6.1 185 40 65 25 55
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 11 2 3 2 4
WR Charles Johnson 26 4.9 2.9 115 25 15 55 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 1 3 2
WR Jarius Wright 25 3.5 1.8 70 10 30 25 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 3 2 1
WR Stefon Diggs 21 14.1 8.6 285 75 85 70 55
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 22 5 6 6 5
TE Kyle Rudolph 25 9.4 6.4 135 30 40 40 25
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 12 3 4 3 2

What to watch for: If owners have been left a bit wanting as a result of AP’s production to this point, they should probably first consider themselves lucky he is one of the few true featured backs that hasn’t missed a game yet (or already done for the season). Secondly, he has a very good chance to improve upon his three total touchdowns thus far in the coming weeks as none of his four opponents can be considered anything close to an elite run defense (at least for fantasy purposes). Diggs is almost singlehandedly allowing Bridgewater to remain in the matchup-based starter conversation at quarterback, but both players will have their work cut out for them in the weeks ahead. Rudolph should be worth a spot start a time or two over the next month – if only because the receivers have a difficult road – but owners are rolling the dice with him since OC Norv Turner has chosen to utilize him as a blocker much more this season.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.