Le’Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen
and Brandon Marshall were among a handful of the many valuable
players that saw their week or season cut short in Week 8. Almost
without fail, every NFL season produces a relative (yet figurative)
bloodbath around the middle of the season, which probably makes
this point of the year the most difficult for fantasy owners every
season because of the large number of teams about to enjoy their
bye week (six this week and four more each of the next two weeks).
Consider yourself very lucky if your team(s) was/were unaffected.
If there is one positive that comes out of all these injury-related
departures for fantasy owners every year, it is that typically
new and exciting talent gets a chance to emerge. Because I will
be projecting the next quarter’s worth of statistics for
all 32 teams this week, I will mostly let my projections for each
team do the talking in regards to what players I expect to step
up.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
What to watch for: The Texans have no business being tied for first
in this division and probably won’t have to carry that weight
on their shoulders much longer considering their upcoming schedule.
It’s quite possible Houston will be forced to abandon the
running game in the first half of each of its next three games,
making Polk and Grimes more valuable than Blue in fantasy. The Texans’
passing game has been a pleasant surprise from a fantasy perspective,
but one has to wonder how much longer it is sustainable since so
much of the production will have to come in garbage time over the
next month. The combination of extreme volume (as a result of each
of Arian Foster’s injuries) and Hopkins has somehow made Hoyer
a near every-week starting candidate in fantasy that is available
in most league, although the first half of that statement may get
tested a bit over the Texans’ next two games. Shorts’
eventual return will probably steal some of Washington’s thunder,
but it is important to know that no team is throwing more often
than Houston. That fact alone keeps Hoyer, Washington and Shorts
squarely in the fantasy conversation despite the fact the upcoming
schedule is not a favorable one for the Texans.
What to watch for: Unlike many wondering why the Colts canned OC
Pep Hamilton after he was so celebrated last year, I am actually
in favor of the move to new OC Rob Chudzinski (fully aware the Colts’
problems extend well beyond Hamilton). I doubt the move will have
much of an impact on the receivers – “Chud” is
from the Norv Turner school of play-calling and favors a vertical
passing game much like the one Indianapolis has been using. The
biggest difference in the offense figures to be more of an emphasis
on the tight end position – a staple of Turner and Chudzinski’s
offenses over the years. I expect the primary beneficiary to be
Fleener and believe we saw some of that against Carolina on Monday
Night Football. Beyond that philosophical changes and following
a brutal matchup against Denver this week, the Colts have a chance
to pull out of their offensive doldrums after the bye. HC Chuck
Pagano recently said Gore is still in a “pitch count”,
but I would expect that to change after the Denver game. Much like
the passing attack, Gore should see his production spike immediately
after the bye.
What to watch for: Owners counting on continued production from
the Jaguars’ passing game should be happy to hear that with
the exception of their next game against the Jets, Bortles &
Co. have reason to believe the passing game will continue to shatter
preseason expectations. Robinson has quickly emerged as a low-end
WR1 and has an upcoming schedule that could see that designation
improve as a result. Hurns has been fortunate to catch a touchdown
at the end of games recently to keep his fantasy stock high, but
owners can’t argue about his consistency or the fact he has
seen an average of nine targets (no fewer than six in any game)
over the last four contests. Owners need to know by now that trusting
Thomas is risky business, but he still should be in lineups as long
as he’s healthy. The odds are stacked against Yeldon over
the next month, but volume figures to remain his friend.
What to watch for: Tennessee is a franchise in disarray, but at
least it’s getting its “franchise quarterback”
back, right? Interim HC Mike Mularkey has already stated Andrews
will be his featured back, although the pressure will be on him
to get Cobb involved if the offense continues to struggle. Mularkey
is fond of the running game and will probably go a bit overboard
in trying to protect Mariota, probably relying heavily on quick
and short passes. That’s obviously good news for Walker, who
I expect to explode during this stretch of games if only because
the opposition has shown little ability to contain good (or great)
tight ends. It is anyone’s guess whether or not the coaching
change will affect Green-Beckham’s playing time, but I do
expect Wright – if his knee heals by Week 10 – to produce
against a soft schedule. Expecting Mariota to revisit his early-season
effectiveness feels unrealistic, but he should still be a serviceable
matchup-based starter in three of the next four weeks.
What to watch for: Owners of Freeman wondering why their sparkplug
hasn’t continued his scoring binge figure to be smiling quite
often over the next two games. The Falcons’ early-season explosion
seems to have faded a bit, but about the only thing the 49ers have
going in their favor this week is the fact they play at home. The
Colts’ run defense has fallen off since a solid start, giving
Freeman ample opportunity to continue his career year in that contest
as well. Jones should be a fixture in DFS lineups almost regardless
of his price tag as long as he is healthy. Hankerson’s absence
plus the continued threat of the run game could lead to sky-high
numbers for Atlanta’s top wideout, especially considering
his favorable schedule. Tamme is a bit too hit-or-miss for most
owners, but he’s a high-ceiling option moving forward if only
because he has proven multiple times that he has Ryan’s trust.
Freeman’s emergence has contributed to Ryan being less of
a fantasy factor than usual, although it is a bit surprising with
Freeman commanding so much attention that Ryan has been in a bit
of a turnover rut over the last month.
What to watch for: It seems fairly clear by now that matchups don’t
matter much to Newton, who is probably going to get his 7-10 designed
rushing attempts, a running score every other week and just enough
passing yards to get by to remain a consistent fantasy starter every
week. Stewart is starting to see the kind of volume most expected
him to have at the beginning of the season; as long as that keeps
up, matchups probably aren’t going to matter much to him either.
Ginn seems to have emerged as the top wideout in Carolina, although
the speedy receiver can break a fantasy owner’s heart just
as often as he makes it feel good (recall the drop he had on Monday
night?). This brings us to the one Panther to whom matchups do matter
– Olsen. Although he’s disappointed in some favorable
spots earlier this season, Olsen has lived up to his draft status
and then some for the most part. He should continue to do the same
in in what looks to be a relatively easy stretch in November.
What to watch for: Although owners cannot expect the fantasy-point
avalanche the Saints caused in Week 8 to happen again anytime soon,
Brees should be in fine shape to add on to his five 300-yard passing
days over the next month. Some NFL insiders have suggested New Orleans’
recent turnaround has occurred in part due to the flexibility that
former Patriot TE Michael Hoomanawanui allows the offense (in terms
of better blocking, allowing Watson to run routes, etc.). It’s
hard to argue with Watson’s production over that time period
and the schedule does not appear to offer much resistance anytime
soon. Hoomanawanui’s arrival seems to have sparked Cooks’
production as well, although the Saints’ improved offensive
could merely be a function of Brees simply getting a better grasp
on what his new supporting cast can do. Thankfully, the schedule
does not look to be an impediment for Cooks and Snead either. Khiry
Robinson’s season-ending injury should finally open up the
door for Spiller to see more consistent work, although it is just
as likely at this point that Hightower essentially replaces Robinson.
At any rate, Robinson’s absence pretty much locks Ingram into
20 touches just about every week.
What to watch for: In recent years, owners have become accustomed
to Martin breaking down and, while that still might happen, it is
looking less and less likely. The “Dougernaut” has been
just about everything a fantasy owner can ask for over the last
month, consistently seeing at least 20 touches and generally paying
that off with at least 20 PPR fantasy points. Only the Eagles in
Week 11 have shown consistent ability to stop the run, so expect
Martin’s resurgence to continue a little while longer. Martin’s
level of play and the desire to keep Winston in game-manager mode
(not to mention his inaccuracy at times) has suppressed Evans somewhat
this season, although the second-year wideout is going to be needed
more often in the coming weeks. It’s quite possible owners
begin to see production reminiscent of last year’s rookie
season a bit more often as a result of a favorable slate. The biggest
variable, however, figures to be the return of Seferian-Jenkins.
Owners only got one-plus game (and that was mostly in garbage time)
to see what the athletic tight end could do. It is possible he eventually
becomes the player that helps more savvy fantasy owners win titles
this year than any other Buc. With Evans striking fear on the outside
and Martin doing the same on the ground, defenses will often be
tempted to let Tampa Bay live with what ASJ can do over the middle.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
