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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, FFPC High-Stakes League: Version 1.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/25/15

FFPC | TFC

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Well, we’re movin’ on up
To the east side
To a deluxe apartment in the sky…

- Ja'net Dubois and Jeff Barry (co-writers for the theme song of The Jeffersons)

For the younger members of my audience, the above lyrics may not be all that familiar to you. For all of those readers around 40 years of age, The Jeffersons was a staple in the entertainment lineup of many Americans from 1975-1985 and one of the longest running sitcoms in the history of American television. (Ah, don’t we all remember the days when TV Guide was just a magazine?)

FFPCThe reason I chose “Movin’ on Up” to lead into this week’s article is because that is exactly what I am trying to do with this week’s submissions. The Fantasy Championship and FFPC offer the biggest payouts in fantasy football, so it is about time that I start creating some Big Boards that not only cater to those contests, but also recognize the difference between the scoring in those leagues and the more traditional formats I have been focused on for the last few years. I know of several high-stakes players that have used the traditional Big Boards I have built in the past with great success, so it only makes sense to make a few alterations on my end in order to make sure those owners have the same kind of resource that many of you have utilized.

The TFC and FFPC use scoring that is very similar to the PPR scoring I used in last week’s Big Boards. The main differences are as follows:

1) the TFC rewards four points (instead of six) for passing touchdowns, penalizes one point (instead of two) for interceptions and hands out a point for every 20 yards passing (instead of 25).

2) the FFPC uses the same scoring as I just laid out for the TFC, but rewards tight ends 1.5 points for every catch and one point for every other position.

Needless to say, there isn’t going to be much difference between the Big Boards this week, outside of the fact that tight ends will appear much earlier and slightly more often in the FFPC Big Board. I realize that 150 players probably won’t be enough for you this week (both sites use a 20-round draft) and I apologize for that. Fear not, however, as next week’s 200-player Big Boards should be deep enough for the majority of you. (And honestly, shouldn’t most of us be drafting our most important teams next week anyway?)

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about two key points:

1) I doubt you will find another draft board like this one and further doubt you will find a similar set of rankings anywhere else. The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration. Someday, I hope the industry catches on to my way of thinking. Until then, I’ll try to win as many titles as possible and help you do the same.

2 ) Much like the past three seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Success score (SSI) – The sum of several position-specific attributes that I feel are important to fantasy production, weighted and scored. A perfect score is 1000, but it may help to move the decimal point one spot to the left and think of each score as a percentage. It may also help to think of the final score as the likelihood that player will produce at the level I have projected him if his current environment stays roughly the same as it is now.

Just so you know what you are getting yourself into, here are some of the attributes I weighed and scored at each position:

Quarterback – Talent, job security, four-game stat projection, red-zone projection (how often I believe the quarterback will either throw or run the ball himself inside the 20) and the degree to which I believe his offense is conservative or will play that way because of an elite defense.

Running back – Talent, job security, durability, four-game stat projection, three-down back (based on projected snaps) and the run-blocking prowess of his offensive line.

Wide receiver – Talent, job security, four-game stat projection and projected red-zone scores.

Tight end – Talent, job security, projected red-zone scores and projected targets in relation to his peers at the position.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 150
OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age SSI FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 30 908.0 22.4 89.5
2 1 WR Antonio Brown PIT 27 901.7 22.6 90.5
3 2 RB LeíVeon Bell PIT 23 918.1 19.5 39.0
4 3 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 29 896.1 19.5 78.0
5 1 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 26 905.0 21.0 84.0
6 4 RB C.J. Anderson DEN 24 898.3 21.6 86.5
7 5 RB Jamaal Charles KC 28 889.9 19.9 79.5
8 2 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 27 903.2 21.0 84.0
9 6 RB Eddie Lacy GB 25 863.9 16.5 66.0
10 3 WR Dez Bryant DAL 26 899.2 21.8 87.0
11 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 26 894.4 24.6 98.5
12 5 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22 906.4 22.9 91.5
13 2 TE Jimmy Graham SEA 28 867.7 17.3 69.0
14 7 RB Jeremy Hill CIN 22 848.9 19.6 78.5
15 6 WR Calvin Johnson DET 29 883.5 19.8 79.0
16 7 WR A.J. Green CIN 27 850.4 17.9 71.5
17 8 WR Randall Cobb GB 25 790.5 20.9 83.5
18 8 RB Matt Forte CHI 29 881.6 18.6 74.5
19 9 RB Justin Forsett BAL 29 847.2 17.8 71.0
20 9 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 25 839.5 18.0 72.0
21 10 RB Frank Gore IND 32 806.1 16.4 65.5
22 10 WR Brandin Cooks NO 21 754.6 18.5 74.0
23 11 RB Mark Ingram NO 25 764.5 17.3 69.0
24 12 RB DeMarco Murray PHI 27 807.4 17.6 70.5
25 11 WR Jordan Matthews PHI 23 779.0 17.0 68.0
26 12 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 25 757.0 15.4 61.5
27 13 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 27 800.2 16.9 67.5
28 13 WR Andre Johnson IND 34 749.0 15.3 61.0
29 14 RB Lamar Miller MIA 24 800.4 12.5 50.0
30 1 QB Andrew Luck IND 25 896.5 26.8 107.0
31 14 WR Davante Adams GB 22 807.4 18.8 75.0
32 2 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 31 881.5 25.0 100.0
33 3 TE Greg Olsen CAR 30 808.8 19.9 79.5
34 15 RB Melvin Gordon SD 22 805.2 14.6 58.5
35 16 RB Ameer Abdullah DET 22 794.2 16.6 66.5
36 4 TE Travis Kelce KC 25 804.2 16.9 67.5
37 17 RB Latavius Murray OAK 25 740.4 13.6 54.5
38 15 WR Keenan Allen SD 23 748.8 16.5 66.0
39 16 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 23 837.4 18.0 72.0
40 17 WR Brandon Marshall NYJ 31 740.9 15.6 62.5
41 18 WR Amari Cooper OAK 21 775.7 15.5 62.0
42 19 WR Mike Evans TB 22 841.9 16.3 65.0
43 18 RB C.J. Spiller NO 28 775.3 14.3 57.0
44 20 WR Jarvis Landry MIA 22 760.9 15.3 61.0
45 21 WR Julian Edelman NE 29 742.2 13.6 54.5
46 22 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 28 722.5 12.8 51.0
47 19 RB Alfred Morris WAS 26 783.5 11.6 46.5
48 23 WR Sammy Watkins BUF 22 738.9 12.5 50.0
49 20 RB Joseph Randle DAL 23 757.9 13.6 54.5
50 3 QB Russell Wilson SEA 26 817.8 25.7 102.8
51 21 RB Todd Gurley STL 21 804.3 9.8 19.5
52 22 RB T.J. Yeldon JAC 21 734.6 12.1 48.5
53 24 WR Golden Tate DET 27 683.4 11.5 46.0
54 23 RB Andre Ellington ARI 26 714.9 13.4 53.5
55 4 QB Drew Brees NO 36 860.8 24.4 97.8
56 5 QB Peyton Manning DEN 39 868.9 22.3 89.0
57 25 WR Allen Robinson JAC 22 738.4 15.3 61.0
58 24 RB Carlos Hyde SF 23 680.7 9.3 37.0
59 25 RB Chris Ivory NYJ 27 668.8 13.1 52.5
60 26 RB Arian Foster HOU 29 780.0 0.0 0.0
61 26 WR Anquan Boldin SF 34 703.3 15.8 63.0
62 27 WR Charles Johnson MIN 26 703.6 14.0 56.0
63 6 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33 883.1 22.4 89.8
64 27 RB Danny Woodhead SD 30 705.4 13.6 54.5
65 28 RB Doug Martin TB 26 706.8 12.0 48.0
66 29 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 28 744.0 11.9 47.5
67 28 WR Jeremy Maclin KC 27 671.9 11.8 47.0
68 29 WR Mike Wallace MIN 29 725.5 14.5 58.0
69 5 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 24 764.5 15.4 61.5
70 30 RB LeGarrette Blount NE 28 658.6 13.0 39.0
71 30 WR DeSean Jackson WAS 28 671.5 13.4 53.5
72 7 QB Matt Ryan ATL 30 841.9 22.3 89.3
73 31 RB Shane Vereen NYG 26 635.4 12.5 50.0
74 31 WR Steve Smith BAL 36 717.3 15.8 63.0
75 32 RB Rashad Jennings NYG 30 613.2 12.6 50.5
76 33 RB Joique Bell DET 29 638.8 10.9 43.5
77 32 WR Vincent Jackson TB 32 725.7 13.8 55.0
78 33 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 29 716.1 13.0 52.0
79 6 TE Martellus Bennett CHI 28 721.2 12.6 50.5
80 34 WR John Brown ARI 25 719.8 14.1 56.5
81 34 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 23 654.8 8.9 35.5
82 35 WR Steve Johnson SD 29 712.2 13.6 54.5
83 36 WR Nelson Agholor PHI 22 676.2 10.8 43.0
84 37 WR Eddie Royal CHI 29 664.6 14.8 59.0
85 38 WR Kendall Wright TEN 25 706.4 14.9 59.5
86 35 RB Ryan Mathews PHI 27 614.8 8.6 34.5
87 7 TE Jordan Cameron MIA 27 707.1 15.0 60.0
88 8 TE Vernon Davis SF 31 776.6 16.1 64.5
89 8 QB Philip Rivers SD 33 846.7 20.1 80.3
90 9 QB Matthew Stafford DET 27 809.7 20.1 80.3
91 39 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 32 680.3 12.8 51.0
92 40 WR Martavis Bryant PIT 23 670.4 13.4 53.5
93 9 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 25 745.1 15.1 60.5
94 41 WR Roddy White ATL 33 694.6 14.8 59.0
95 36 RB Tre Mason STL 22 637.9 11.4 45.5
96 42 WR Devin Funchess CAR 21 612.7 13.3 53.0
97 10 QB Tony Romo DAL 35 784.4 22.3 89.0
98 11 QB Eli Manning NYG 34 871.8 22.0 88.0
99 43 WR Brandon LaFell NE 28 641.6 11.0 44.0
100 37 RB Duke Johnson CLE 21 685.7 12.6 50.5
101 38 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 22 617.6 9.9 39.5
102 12 QB Teddy Bridgewater MIN 22 802.9 22.3 89.3
103 10 TE Jason Witten DAL 33 682.6 13.0 52.0
104 13 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA 27 805.9 18.9 75.5
105 44 WR Eric Decker NYJ 28 688.9 12.0 48.0
106 45 WR Brian Quick STL 26 636.9 11.9 47.5
107 11 TE Antonio Gates SD 35 625.8 0.0 0.0
108 14 QB Tom Brady NE 38 736.9 0.0 0.0
109 15 QB Cam Newton CAR 26 828.2 22.2 88.8
110 12 TE Delanie Walker TEN 31 703.4 11.9 47.5
111 46 WR Markus Wheaton PIT 24 561.3 11.0 44.0
112 39 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 23 581.7 4.1 16.5
113 40 RB Alfred Blue HOU 24 620.7 13.8 55.0
114 47 WR Rueben Randle NYG 24 705.8 14.5 58.0
115 16 QB Carson Palmer ARI 35 806.2 19.4 77.5
116 41 RB Reggie Bush SF 30 621.0 11.6 46.5
117 42 RB David Cobb TEN 22 588.4 9.4 37.5
118 43 RB Isaiah Crowell CLE 22 679.3 7.5 30.0
119 44 RB Knile Davis KC 23 648.2 8.1 32.5
120 13 TE Owen Daniels DEN 32 596.8 12.0 48.0
121 14 TE Julius Thomas JAC 27 677.7 11.0 44.0
122 45 RB David Johnson ARI 23 590.7 8.1 32.5
123 46 RB James White NE 23 539.0 7.6 30.5
124 48 WR DeVante Parker MIA 22 563.8 6.3 25.0
125 49 WR Terrance Williams DAL 25 618.0 11.3 45.0
126 15 TE Dwayne Allen IND 25 580.8 10.3 41.0
127 17 QB Andy Dalton CIN 27 691.6 19.0 76.0
128 47 RB Bishop Sankey TEN 22 672.6 6.8 27.0
129 50 WR Michael Floyd ARI 25 653.5 11.5 34.5
130 18 QB Colin Kaepernick SF 27 791.4 22.0 88.0
131 16 TE Heath Miller PIT 32 582.4 10.6 42.5
132 51 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 26 581.9 10.3 41.0
133 48 RB Matt Jones WAS 22 592.1 8.8 35.0
134 49 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 23 621.5 10.5 42.0
135 52 WR Michael Crabtree OAK 27 624.8 12.0 48.0
136 53 WR Marques Colston NO 32 607.6 10.5 42.0
137 17 TE Zach Ertz PHI 24 685.4 8.3 33.0
138 18 TE Josh Hill NO 25 648.8 8.4 33.5
139 54 WR Victor Cruz NYG 28 584.5 6.6 26.5
140 55 WR Brandon Coleman NO 23 545.7 11.9 47.5
141 56 WR Breshad Perriman BAL 21 633.9 8.0 32.0
142 50 RB Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 25 510.9 1.5 6.0
143 51 RB Roy Helu OAK 26 608.4 8.3 33.0
144 19 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 22 663.4 8.5 34.0
145 20 TE Ben Watson NO 34 577.6 7.5 30.0
146 57 WR Torrey Smith SF 26 616.0 10.6 42.5
147 52 RB Charles Sims TB 24 535.1 4.5 18.0
148 53 RB Lance Dunbar DAL 25 564.5 6.5 26.0
149 54 RB Darren McFadden DAL 28 503.7 6.1 24.5
150 58 WR Leonard Hankerson ATL 26 490.4 8.3 33.0

Top 25:

One of the most common mistakes drafters make is attaching a label to one player while often disregarding the fact his peers at the same position have the same issue. If you donít buy into C.J. Anderson as an early first-round pick, I can completely understand that decision since he is less proven than the other top backs behind him on my board. Hereís the problem: the Chiefs want to rest Jamaal Charles more this season (Knile Davis is a more-than-capable reserve), the Packers have already talked about keeping Eddie Lacy fresh by limiting his touches (they did this last season by liberally using James Starks) and we already know Jeremy Hill will miss out on a productive fantasy day or two when Giovani Bernard steals some work in the passing game. I take some degree of comfort in remembering how new HC Gary Kubiak handled his backfield with the Texans in 2011, when Arian Foster finished as the RB4 and Ben Tate the RB32 in PPR. (For what it is worth, Tate piled up 188 touches and Foster missed three games that year!) My advice: take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding Anderson right now and get him at a discount. Just make sure to spend an early mid-round pick (maybe in the 10th-round area in 12-team leagues) on Ronnie Hillman. If you do so, there is a strong chance you have landed a RB1 and part-time flex option.

Randall Cobbís upside Ė especially in PPR leagues Ė was already pretty high and itís hard seeing him better his 2014 numbers since he posted a 91-1,287-12 line WITH Jordy Nelson operating as Aaron Rodgersí favorite target. The crushing loss of Nelson to an ACL tear over the weekend probably pushes Cobb over the 100-catch mark, but the Packers are not hurting for options even with their top receiver sidelined. I think the safe assumption is that if Cobb plays all 16 games, he is a very good bet to match last yearís production but not necessarily blow it out of the water. For what it is worth, I had projected Cobb on a 108-catch pace prior to Nelsonís injury and I think that is about where he will end up since Rodgers will also pepper Lacy, Davante Adams as well as Richard Rodgers, Jeff Janis and rookie Ty Montgomery with targets to fill the void left behind.

26-50:

Most of the running backs in this group of 25 players have a healthy mix of positive qualities that could thrust them into the top 10-12 at their position and enough potential pitfalls to make owners question a third- or fourth-round investment in them. One of the toughest ones to rank has to be Alfred Morris, who saw his team add one of the leagueís best offensive line coaches (Bill Callahan) and a team-wide commitment to run the ball more often in his contract year. So whatís the problem? ďAlfĒ might as well be the lower-scoring, present-day version of Michael Turner in that he is going to play all 16 games, run for 1,000 yards and eight or so touchdowns and do next to nothing in the passing game. The bigger issue, however, could be that his likely replacement (Morris is in a contract year and the team drafted Matt Jones) is bigger, stronger, faster and can do more than hold his own as a receiver out of the backfield. Morrisí YPC has declined each year since his incredible rookie season in 2012, so it is fair to wonder just how strong of a grip Morris has on his job. The fourth-year runner has been a safe RB2 over the last two seasons because heís been a lock for at least 250 carries, but Iím not sure that is going to be the case again in 2015.

51-100:

If Jameis Winston can bring any kind of respectability to the Tampa Bay offense, then Doug Martinís owners may finally be able to get a taste of what it was like to own the ďMuscle HamsterĒ as a rookie in 2012. No, I donít expect Martin to come anywhere close to 1,972 total yards or 12 touchdowns simply because the Bucs arenít going to give him the ball 368 times like former HC Greg Schiano did. What Martin can do if he stays healthy for 16 games is approach 225-250 carries and roughly 25 catches simply because I cannot foresee a scenario in which Tampa Bay opens up the offense for its rookie quarterback in 2015. Charles Sims figures to cap Martinís upside in the passing game again, so owners need to set their sights on a low-end RB2 if they draft the fourth-year back.

I have a feeling I will end up with Tyler Eifert on roughly half of my money-league teams this year. Consider for a second that Cincinnati found a way to funnel 80 targets (resulting in a 62-460-5 line) to Jermaine Gresham last season, albeit in a season in which the Bengals couldnít keep any receiving option healthy for more than a few games at a time. Before succumbing to a rash of injuries over his first two NFL seasons, Eifert came into the league as a very athletic tight end with exceptional high-point ability for a player at his position. It is important to note we arenít talking about a Rob Gronkowski-, Jimmy Graham- or Travis Kelce-like skill set here, but a player of his abilities that has an elite receiver like A.J. Green and a very good ground game taking defensive attention away from him is set up for fantasy success. Eifertís ADP (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) has climbed nearly a full round in the last week alone to the middle of the ninth round, but that price is still nearly two rounds lower than I think he should go. Whereas I think Vernon Davis can have a bounce-back season and believe Kyle Rudolph could be a mid-level TE1 if he could ever stay healthy, I tend to believe Eifert will push both and make a solid charge at finishing among the top 5-8 players at his position in fantasy.

Iím going to keep expectations in check in regards to Devin Funchess replacing Kelvin Benjamin, perhaps in part because I expect Greg Olsen to benefit the most from a fantasy perspective. Having said that, Cam Newton displayed an affinity for throwing the fade to Benjamin in the red zone and take his chances the 6-5 receiver would consistently win the battle against a smallish corner last year. While I donít think the 6-5 Funchess can match Benjamin in terms of his impact outside the 20, I do think he has a solid chance to rival his production inside the red zone. The Panthers have quickly gone from a team that appeared to be on the verge of competing for a third straight NFC South title to an outfit with an inefficient quarterback that could very well be without Benjamin and C Ryan Kalil (sprained knee, questionable for Week 1), who is the one established blocker the team had, and lacks legitimate receiving options outside of Olsen and Funchess.

101-150:

It is about time for owners to start getting on board with the Vikingsí offense. All Teddy Bridgewater has done in three exhibition games is complete 78.6 percent of his passes and avoid sacks. Once Charles Johnson established himself as a go-to receiver for Bridgewater around Week 11 last season, the then-rookie quarterback proceeded to complete 68.2 percent of his attempts for 228.3 yards per game and 11 touchdowns. Considering Bridgewater and Johnson were both first-year players and the Vikings had an average-at-best ground game, those numbers are pretty good. This year, Minnesota is flush with offensive talent as Mike Wallace, a healthy Kyle Rudolph, a highly-motivated Adrian Peterson and even versatile rookie TE MyCole Pruitt are along for the ride. I think 25-plus touchdown throws is a completely realistic goal for him, assuming Peterson doesnít become the first back in league history to top 2,000 rushing yards twice.

I desperately want to see Brian Quick play this weekend. Cleared for contact after about 10 months after sustaining a shoulder injury in Week 8 last season, the No. 33 overall pick of the 2012 draft only needs to prove to me he can take a few hits in order to move up my boards. Quick was on a 64-973-8 pace despite the Ramsí lackluster quarterback play last season, so there is reason to believe he can emerge as a trustworthy every-week WR3 with a more stable situation under center. Iíd be remiss if I didnít include a plug in this section for teammate Tavon Austin, who I tend to believe is going to be very fantasy-relevant at some point early in the season (at least as much as any potential No. 2 receiver in a run-heavy offense can). I can assure you he will be a regular on next weekís boards; I think Austin makes a great end-of-the-draft flyer pick in the 20-round formats of The Fantasy Championship and the FFPC.

Next: TFC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.