Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




Create An Account  |  Advertise  |  Contact      





Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 200 Big Board, TFC High-Stakes League: Version 2.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
9/4/15

FFPC | TFC

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

The Fantasy ChampionshipYou’d think we could go a day in the NFL without some big news happening, right?

By now, everyone that has any kind of interest in fantasy football, the New England Patriots or Gisele Bündchen’s life away from the camera can tell you that Tom Brady will now be able to take the field in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While there has been plenty of slight movement from the PPR Big Board I released just three days ago, the elimination of Brady’s four-game suspension (and the players around him it affects) has created, by far, the biggest shakeup on The Fantasy Championship Big Board. The impact will obviously be felt on the Half-Point Big Board as well as the Non-PPR Big Board. However, with so many of the Patriots’ wideouts currently nursing injuries, Brady and Rob Gronkowski are the only New England players that saw their fantasy stock significantly boosted by the news.

Each of the three Big Boards I mentioned above operates under the assumption that all touchdowns are worth six fantasy points. The high-stakes leagues (TFC and FFPC), like most standard PPR leagues, award four points per passing touchdown. Other than that, both high-stakes giants use scoring that is very similar to the PPR scoring I have used in my Big Boards for years. The other notable differences are as follows:

1) the TFC rewards four points (instead of six) for passing touchdowns, penalizes one point (instead of two) for interceptions and hands out a point for every 20 yards passing (instead of 25).

2) the FFPC uses the same scoring as I just laid out for the TFC, but rewards tight ends 1.5 points for every catch and one point for every other position.

Needless to say, there isn’t going to be much difference between the remaining two Big Boards, outside of the fact that tight ends will appear much earlier and slightly more often in the FFPC Big Board.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about two key points:

1) I doubt you will find another draft board like this one and further doubt you will find a similar set of rankings anywhere else. The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration. Someday, I hope the industry catches on to my way of thinking. Until then, I’ll try to win as many titles as possible and help you do the same.

2 ) Much like the past three seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

As I have done in previous years, I have taken the additional step on the final set of Big Boards to designate players to their “fantasy position”. Keep in mind that just because there may be 12 teams in your league, it doesn’t mean there are 12 players worthy of being designated as a QB1, RB1, WR1 or TE1.

QB1/RB1/WR1/TE1 – A player I am comfortable starting every week, regardless of matchup.

1/2, 2/3, 3/4 (All positions) – A player that can occasionally post numbers with a player in the tier above him, but is usually either too inconsistent to be considered in that tier or has a poor track record of staying healthy.

QB2/TE2 – A bye-week or matchup-based quarterback or tight end.

RB2/WR2 – A back or receiver that can post RB1/WR1 numbers with high upside, but has an obvious flaw that makes him less consistent than a RB1 or WR1.

RB3/WR3 - Usually is an inconsistent “splash” player that can win his fantasy team with a huge performance, but is best utilized when the matchup is right.

RB4/WR4 – Usually a steady, lower-upside option that can be spot-started and used as a bye-week fill-in. In some cases, he is a high-upside player blocked by two top-level players in front of him.

RB5/WR5 – Usually a “handcuff”, but a player who is on the roster generally to keep the ship from sinking due to injury.

RB6/WR6 – Extreme longshots due to any number of factors, but with enough talent to be viable at some point in fantasy.

I have taken the additional step this year of adding color to the “Pos” column below; it is my hope taking this step will further enhance an owner’s ability to delineate where one tier ends (regardless of position) and where another one begins, essentially using the same concept NFL teams do with a horizontal board during the NFL Draft. (Although it is not a perfect example, here is the kind of thing I am talking about in case the term “horizontal board” is unfamiliar to you.) The change of colors from blue to white don’t necessarily represent rounds here, but tiers.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Success score (SSI) – The sum of several position-specific attributes that I feel are important to fantasy production, weighted and scored. A perfect score is 1000, but it may help to move the decimal point one spot to the left and think of each score as a percentage. It may also help to think of the final score as the likelihood that player will produce at the level I have projected him if his current environment stays roughly the same as it is now.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 The Fantasy Championiship Big Board - Top 200 (175+25)
OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age SSI FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB1 Adrian Peterson MIN 30 908.0 22.4 89.5
2 1 WR1 Antonio Brown PIT 27 901.7 22.6 90.5
3 2 RB1 Le’Veon Bell PIT 23 918.1 19.5 39.0
4 3 RB1 C.J. Anderson DEN 24 898.6 21.8 87.0
5 4 RB1 Marshawn Lynch SEA 29 896.1 19.5 78.0
6 5 RB1 Eddie Lacy GB 25 866.7 17.8 71.0
7 2 WR1 Demaryius Thomas DEN 27 903.2 21.0 84.0
8 6 RB1 Jamaal Charles KC 28 889.9 19.9 79.5
9 3 WR1 Julio Jones ATL 26 894.4 24.6 98.5
10 1 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 26 905.0 19.9 79.5
11 4 WR1 Randall Cobb GB 25 799.6 22.4 89.5
12 5 WR1 Dez Bryant DAL 26 899.2 21.8 87.0
13 6 WR1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22 906.4 22.9 91.5
14 7 RB1 Justin Forsett BAL 29 847.2 17.8 71.0
15 7 WR1 Calvin Johnson DET 29 883.5 19.8 79.0
16 8 WR1 A.J. Green CIN 27 850.4 17.9 71.5
17 8 RB1/2 DeMarco Murray PHI 27 807.4 17.6 70.5
18 9 RB1/2 Matt Forte CHI 29 881.6 18.6 74.5
19 10 RB1/2 Jeremy Hill CIN 22 848.9 19.6 78.5
20 9 WR1/2 Brandin Cooks NO 21 754.6 18.5 74.0
21 11 RB1/2 Frank Gore IND 32 806.1 16.4 65.5
22 10 WR1/2 Alshon Jeffery CHI 25 839.5 18.0 72.0
23 12 RB1/2 Mark Ingram NO 25 764.5 17.3 69.0
24 1 QB1 Andrew Luck IND 25 896.5 26.8 107.0
25 11 WR1/2 Jordan Matthews PHI 23 779.0 17.0 68.0
26 13 RB1/2 Lamar Miller MIA 24 800.4 12.5 50.0
27 12 WR1/2 T.Y. Hilton IND 25 757.0 15.4 61.5
28 2 TE1 Jimmy Graham SEA 28 859.8 15.1 60.5
29 14 RB1/2 LeSean McCoy BUF 27 800.2 16.9 67.5
30 13 WR1/2 Andre Johnson IND 34 749.0 15.3 61.0
31 14 WR1/2 Brandon Marshall NYJ 31 792.3 17.5 70.0
32 2 QB1 Aaron Rodgers GB 31 880.8 24.8 99.3
33 15 RB2 Chris Ivory NYJ 27 673.6 15.3 61.0
34 15 WR2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 23 837.4 18.0 72.0
35 16 WR2 Amari Cooper OAK 21 775.7 15.5 62.0
36 17 WR2 Jarvis Landry MIA 22 760.9 15.3 61.0
37 18 WR2 Davante Adams GB 22 818.6 18.1 72.5
38 19 WR2 Mike Evans TB 22 835.8 15.3 61.0
39 16 RB2 Latavius Murray OAK 25 740.4 13.6 54.5
40 17 RB2 Ameer Abdullah DET 22 794.2 16.6 66.5
41 20 WR2 Keenan Allen SD 23 748.8 16.5 66.0
42 3 TE1 Greg Olsen CAR 30 792.3 15.6 62.5
43 18 RB2 C.J. Spiller NO 28 775.3 14.3 57.0
44 19 RB2 Melvin Gordon SD 22 802.7 13.5 54.0
45 21 WR2 Julian Edelman NE 29 742.2 13.6 54.5
46 4 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 25 796.6 14.5 58.0
47 20 RB2/3 Todd Gurley STL 21 804.3 9.8 19.5
48 21 RB2/3 Arian Foster HOU 29 780.0 0.0
49 22 WR2 Golden Tate DET 27 683.4 11.5 46.0
50 22 RB2/3 Carlos Hyde SF 23 680.7 9.3 37.0
51 23 WR2/3 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 28 722.5 12.8 51.0
52 3 QB1 Russell Wilson SEA 26 817.8 25.7 102.8
53 4 QB1 Drew Brees NO 36 860.8 24.4 97.8
54 23 RB2/3 Alfred Morris WAS 26 783.5 11.6 46.5
55 24 RB2/3 T.J. Yeldon JAC 21 734.6 12.1 48.5
56 24 WR2/3 Allen Robinson JAC 22 738.4 15.3 61.0
57 25 WR2/3 Anquan Boldin SF 34 703.3 15.8 63.0
58 25 RB2/3 Andre Ellington ARI 26 714.9 13.4 53.5
59 5 QB1 Peyton Manning DEN 39 868.9 22.3 89.0
60 26 WR3 Charles Johnson MIN 26 703.6 14.0 56.0
61 26 RB3 Danny Woodhead SD 30 705.4 13.6 54.5
62 27 WR3 Jeremy Maclin KC 27 671.9 11.8 47.0
63 27 RB3 Doug Martin TB 26 706.8 12.0 48.0
64 28 RB3 Jonathan Stewart CAR 28 744.0 11.9 47.5
65 28 WR3 Sammy Watkins BUF 22 738.9 12.5 50.0
66 6 QB1 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33 875.6 20.4 81.8
67 29 WR3 DeSean Jackson WAS 28 671.5 13.4 53.5
68 5 TE1 Tyler Eifert CIN 24 757.5 13.4 53.5
69 30 WR3 Mike Wallace MIN 29 725.5 14.5 58.0
70 31 WR3 Nelson Agholor PHI 22 676.2 10.8 43.0
71 32 WR3 Steve Smith BAL 36 717.3 15.8 63.0
72 7 QB1 Tom Brady NE 38 821.7 22.7 90.8
73 29 RB3 Joique Bell DET 29 638.8 10.9 43.5
74 30 RB3 Joseph Randle DAL 23 756.5 13.0 51.9
75 6 TE1 Martellus Bennett CHI 28 715.7 10.5 42.0
76 31 RB3 LeGarrette Blount NE 28 658.6 13.0 39.0
77 32 RB3 Rashad Jennings NYG 30 613.2 12.6 50.5
78 8 QB1 Matt Ryan ATL 30 841.9 22.3 89.3
79 33 RB3 Shane Vereen NYG 26 635.4 12.5 50.0
80 34 RB3 Ryan Mathews PHI 27 614.8 8.6 34.5
81 33 WR4 Vincent Jackson TB 32 725.7 13.8 55.0
82 34 WR4 Steve Johnson SD 29 712.2 13.6 54.5
83 35 WR4 John Brown ARI 25 719.8 14.1 56.5
84 36 WR4 Eric Decker NYJ 28 688.9 12.0 48.0
85 9 QB1 Philip Rivers SD 33 846.9 20.1 80.5
86 10 QB1 Matthew Stafford DET 27 809.7 20.1 80.3
87 37 WR4 Martavis Bryant PIT 23 588.9 0.0 0.0
88 38 WR4 Eddie Royal CHI 29 664.6 14.8 59.0
89 35 RB3 Giovani Bernard CIN 23 654.8 8.9 35.5
90 39 WR4 Pierre Garcon WAS 29 716.1 13.0 52.0
91 40 WR4 Kendall Wright TEN 25 706.4 14.9 59.5
92 36 RB4 Reggie Bush SF 30 621.0 11.6 46.5
93 37 RB4 Duke Johnson CLE 21 685.7 12.6 50.5
94 11 QB1 Eli Manning NYG 34 871.8 22.0 88.0
95 12 QB1 Tony Romo DAL 35 784.4 22.3 89.0
96 38 RB4 Tre Mason STL 22 637.9 11.4 45.5
97 41 WR4 DeVante Parker MIA 22 563.8 6.3 25.0
98 13 QB1/2 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 22 802.9 22.3 89.3
99 14 QB1/2 Sam Bradford PHI 27 762.9 19.5 78.0
100 39 RB4 Darren McFadden DAL 28 503.7 6.1 24.5
101 40 RB4 Ronnie Hillman DEN 23 580.3 3.5 14.0
102 7 TE1/2 Jordan Cameron MIA 27 700.4 12.9 51.5
103 42 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 32 680.3 12.8 51.0
104 43 WR4 Roddy White ATL 33 694.6 14.8 59.0
105 44 WR4 Brian Quick STL 26 636.9 11.9 47.5
106 45 WR4 Devin Funchess CAR 21 612.7 13.3 53.0
107 15 QB1/2 Ryan Tannehill MIA 27 805.9 18.9 75.5
108 46 WR4 Markus Wheaton PIT 24 570.4 12.5 50.0
109 8 TE1/2 Vernon Davis SF 31 769.3 14.0 56.0
110 9 TE1/2 Kyle Rudolph MIN 25 738.3 13.0 52.0
111 41 RB4 David Johnson ARI 23 590.7 8.1 32.5
112 42 RB4 Knile Davis KC 23 648.2 8.1 32.5
113 10 TE1/2 Antonio Gates SD 35 625.8 0.0 0.0
114 43 RB4 Tevin Coleman ATL 22 617.6 9.9 39.5
115 44 RB4 Matt Jones WAS 22 592.1 8.8 35.0
116 45 RB4 Isaiah Crowell CLE 22 679.3 7.5 30.0
117 11 TE1/2 Jason Witten DAL 33 677.0 10.8 43.0
118 46 RB4 Bishop Sankey TEN 22 672.6 6.8 27.0
119 16 QB2 Cam Newton CAR 26 824.4 21.2 84.8
120 47 WR4 Rueben Randle NYG 24 705.8 14.5 58.0
121 12 TE1/2 Delanie Walker TEN 31 698.2 10.0 40.0
122 47 RB4 Alfred Blue HOU 24 620.7 13.8 55.0
123 48 RB4 David Cobb TEN 22 588.4 9.4 37.5
124 49 RB4 Devonta Freeman ATL 23 621.5 10.5 42.0
125 17 QB2 Carson Palmer ARI 35 806.2 19.4 77.5
126 48 WR5 Michael Floyd ARI 25 653.5 11.5 34.5
127 49 WR5 Michael Crabtree OAK 27 624.8 12.0 48.0
128 50 WR5 Terrance Williams DAL 25 618.0 11.3 45.0
129 51 WR5 Marques Colston NO 32 607.6 10.5 42.0
130 13 TE2 Owen Daniels DEN 32 591.4 10.3 41.0
131 14 TE2 Dwayne Allen IND 25 576.2 8.9 35.5
132 50 RB5 Denard Robinson JAC 24 546.4 4.0 16.0
133 52 WR5 Brandon Coleman NO 23 545.7 11.9 47.5
134 18 QB2 Andy Dalton CIN 27 691.6 19.0 76.0
135 19 QB2 Colin Kaepernick SF 27 791.4 22.0 88.0
136 51 RB5 Roy Helu OAK 26 608.4 8.3 33.0
137 52 RB5 Andre Williams NYG 23 491.2 5.0 20.0
138 53 WR5 Brandon LaFell NE 28 641.6 11.0 44.0
139 15 TE2 Heath Miller PIT 32 585.3 10.4 41.5
140 16 TE2 Josh Hill NO 25 645.1 7.1 28.5
141 53 RB5 Darren Sproles PHI 32 598.1 6.8 27.0
142 54 RB5 Dion Lewis NE 24 539.0 7.6 30.5
143 55 RB5 Charles Sims TB 24 535.1 4.5 18.0
144 56 RB5 Theo Riddick DET 24 432.3 2.4 9.5
145 17 TE2 Julius Thomas JAC 27 656.5 6.0 6.0
146 18 TE2 Zach Ertz PHI 24 681.8 6.8 27.0
147 54 WR5 Torrey Smith SF 26 616.0 10.6 42.5
148 57 RB5 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 25 510.9 1.5 6.0
149 55 WR5 Breshad Perriman BAL 21 633.9 8.0 32.0
150 20 QB2 Jay Cutler CHI 32 703.4 19.4 77.8
151 56 WR5 Allen Hurns JAC 23 592.4 10.9 43.5
152 57 WR5 Marvin Jones CIN 25 535.6 7.9 31.5
153 19 TE2 Scott Chandler NE 30 615.9 8.1 32.5
154 58 WR5 Doug Baldwin SEA 26 581.9 10.3 41.0
155 59 WR5 Leonard Hankerson ATL 26 490.4 8.3 33.0
156 60 WR5 Victor Cruz NYG 28 584.5 6.6 26.5
157 21 QB2 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 32 599.3 19.1 76.3
158 58 RB5 Lance Dunbar DAL 25 565.4 6.9 27.5
159 59 RB5 Karlos Williams BUF 22 542.6 5.6 22.5
160 20 TE2 Richard Rodgers GB 23 514.2 8.8 35.0
161 60 RB5 Khiry Robinson NO 25 537.7 1.9 7.5
162 61 RB5 James Starks GB 29 576.3 7.5 30.0
163 62 RB5 Jonas Gray NE 25 503.5 6.3 25.0
164 22 QB2 Alex Smith KC 31 699.2 18.4 73.8
165 23 QB2 Derek Carr OAK 24 737.1 18.1 72.3
166 63 RB5 Chris Polk HOU 25 632.9 8.0 32.0
167 61 WR6 Donte Moncrief IND 22 545.1 6.8 27.0
168 21 TE2 Jared Cook STL 28 651.7 10.0 40.0
169 22 TE2 Eric Ebron DET 22 606.6 8.1 32.5
170 23 TE2 Coby Fleener IND 26 580.7 8.3 33.0
171 62 WR6 Jerricho Cotchery CAR 32 399.7 7.3 29.0
172 64 RB5 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 23 486.6 5.9 23.5
173 65 RB5 DeAngelo Williams PIT 32 478.2 5.0 20.0
174 63 WR6 Phillip Dorsett IND 22 513.6 6.5 26.0
175 24 QB2 Joe Flacco BAL 30 759.9 18.9 75.8
176 24 TE2 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 22 659.6 7.3 29.0
177 25 TE2 Charles Clay BUF 26 631.5 8.6 34.5
178 26 TE2 Jordan Reed WAS 25 454.8 7.9 31.5
179 64 WR6 Tavon Austin STL 24 616.8 9.4 37.5
180 65 WR6 Ty Montgomery GB 22 615.4 6.3 25.0
181 66 WR6 Tyler Lockett SEA 22 465.0 5.9 23.5
182 67 WR6 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 22 456.6 3.3 13.0
183 25 QB2 Marcus Mariota TEN 21 773.3 21.0 84.0
184 66 RB5 Mike Tolbert CAR 29 534.8 6.6 26.5
185 27 TE2 Clive Walford OAK 23 581.0 8.0 32.0
186 26 QB2 Tyrod Taylor BUF 26 452.2 16.7 66.8
187 28 TE2 Larry Donnell NYG 26 637.0 8.9 35.5
188 67 RB5 Jerick McKinnon MIN 23 685.3 6.6 26.5
189 68 WR6 Jeff Janis GB 24 435.8 3.4 13.5
190 68 RB5 Terrance West CLE 24 531.1 2.8 11.0
191 27 QB2 Jameis Winston TB 21 766.5 18.3 73.3
192 69 WR6 Kenny Britt STL 26 588.7 9.8 39.0
193 29 TE2 Ben Watson NO 34 574.1 6.6 26.5
194 28 QB2 Blake Bortles JAC 23 631.1 17.7 70.8
195 70 WR6 Cole Beasley DAL 26 456.6 6.9 27.5
196 30 TE2 Ladarius Green SD 25 569.4 9.1 36.5
197 71 WR6 Kenny Stills MIA 23 495.5 4.9 19.5
198 72 WR6 Dwayne Bowe CLE 30 536.4 8.9 35.5
199 31 TE2 MyCole Pruitt MIN 23 501.2 3.0 12.0
200 69 RB5 Bilal Powell NYJ 26 537.9 4.9 19.5



Next: FFPC

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.