As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on April 30, I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths and weaknesses of at least the top 15 offensive skill-position prospects available in this draft. Check back for a new player about every other day beginning on April 1.
Durability will be a concern for Todd Gurley
but he has all the tools to excel at the Pro level.
Background (College
Stats)
Gurley joined Bulldog legend Herschel Walker as only the second
freshman in school history to run for 1,000 yards in 2012, which
was incidentally the only season the North Carolina native topped
that mark in his three-year career at Georgia. Although he rushed
for at least 900 yards in each of his final two seasons, the 20-year-old
missed three games as a sophomore with an ankle injury and parts
of two others with ankle and hip injuries. As a junior, he was
suspended four games for accepting $3,000 to autograph memorabilia
for multiple dealers over a two-year span only to return and suffer
a torn left ACL against Auburn in his first game back. Gurley
has also excelled in track; he competed for Team USA in the 110-meter
hurdles at the 2011 World Youth Championships in Athletics before
starting college and, in 2013, he joined the Bulldogs’ track
team and competed in the 60-meter hurdles, recording the seventh-fastest
time in school history at 8.12 seconds.
Best Scheme Fit: Universal. Should
excel in zone- or man-blocking system. His decisiveness and remarkable
acceleration make him a better fit for the former, but his power,
balance and vision will be beneficial in the latter as well.
Strengths
Lethal combination of power and speed; consistently punishes
the first defender and breaks the first tackle attempt; amassed
61.9 percent of his rushing yardage after contact in 2014.
Three-down back with superb balance and burst; built for
heavy workload.
Rarely gets caught from behind once he breaks loose and
made a habit of outrunning defensive backs, even when they had
an angle on him downfield.
Downhill runner who doesn’t dance and hits the hole
hard; has enough elusiveness to avoid defenders at the second
level.
Possesses the vision to exploit and senses cutback lanes
– skills that are also readily on display when he returns
kicks.
Displays natural hands and can adjust to the ball in the
air as a receiver.
Possesses rare combination of the ability to fight for
extra yards and excellent ball security (three fumbles –
two lost – on 575 career touches).
Weaknesses
November 2014 ACL injury leaves him as a question mark
to recover in time for 2015 training camp.
Hasn’t shown a great deal of durability throughout
his career, even before his knee injury.
Runs upright and doesn’t always lower his pads as
quickly as he should, sometimes leaving him open to absorb as
much punishment as he dishes out.
Shows above-average awareness and possesses necessary
size to be solid in pass pro, but is inconsistent with his aggressiveness
and ability to sustain blocks.
Infrequently used as anything more than a dump-off option
or in the screen game, although his usage as a receiver appears
to be much more a function of Georgia’s conservative offensive
attack than due to any shortcomings he has in the passing game.
Bottom Line
Gurley has all the necessary physical tools to become a regular
Pro Bowler, which is why he will likely be the first back taken
off the board in April despite the fact he is still recovering
from a serious knee injury. There are parts of Corey Dillon, Jamal
Lewis, Marshawn Lynch and Jackson to his game, so it should come
as no surprise that I believe he possesses the best size/speed/power
combination of any back to come out in the draft in the last five
years and perhaps since Adrian Peterson in 2007. Gurley runs as
if every yard means something to him, which can sometimes be a
blessing and a curse. He does not come without red flags: his
four-game suspension in 2014 and injury history provide enough
ammunition for his detractors. His college coaches have been quick
to praise his personal and football character, however, suggesting
his durability is his only real concern entering the league. Barring
a situation in which he lands on a team dead-set on using a committee
backfield approach or with a porous offensive line, Gurley should
be considered a very good bet to win a rushing title at some point
in his NFL career if he can stay healthy. In a draft filled with
potential future starters at his position, the ex-Bulldog is the
crown jewel of his class.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff
fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears
as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
E-mail Doug or follow
him on Twitter.