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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 200 Big Board, FFPC High-Stakes League: Version 2.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
9/3/16

FFPC | TFC

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Here we go again.

Five Big Boards in five days.

It's go time.

With just under a week to go before the NFL season opener a heavy weekend of drafting ahead, the time to talk has passed. As such, allow me to bypass the usual pleasantries this week and get to the good stuff.

Because the goal is to win not only your league, but also put yourself in position for the huge grand prize at the end ($200,000 in the TFC, $250,000 in the FFPC), these final two boards will be set up even more with an eye toward the postseason.

The TFC and FFPC use scoring that is very similar to the PPR scoring I used in last week’s Big Boards. The main differences are as follows:

1) The TFC awards four points (instead of six) for passing touchdowns, penalizes one point for interceptions (instead of two) and hands out a point for every 20 yards passing (instead of 25).

2) The FFPC uses the same scoring as I just laid out for the TFC, but awards tight ends 1.5 points for every catch, as opposed to one point per reception for every other position.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about two key points:

1) I doubt you will find another draft board like this one and further doubt you will find a similar set of rankings anywhere else. The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration.

2 ) Much like the past four seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Key:

OVR – Overall Rank

FPts - Total fantasy points

FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game (over first four weeks)

SSI – Although you will not see it featured in the Big Boards this week or next, SSI is the sum of several position-specific attributes that I feel are important to fantasy production, weighted and scored. A perfect score is 1000, but it may help to move the decimal point one spot to the left and think of each score as a percentage. It may also help to think of the final score as the likelihood that player will produce at the level I have projected him if his current environment stays roughly the same as it is now.

Value - The Value over Replacement Player (VORP) concept for a two-RB, two-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position.

At RB and WR, it gets a bit trickier. Because I wanted to remain unbiased here, I took the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player at each position. All RBs and WRs who did not fit into the first 24 at their positions were then put into a "flex pool" and the standard deviation was taken from the 24th-ranked player there, which explains why there are numbers in blue. (Using the most simplistic explanation I can provide, black > blue > red.)

Just so you know what you are getting yourself into, here are some of the attributes I weighed and scored at each position:

Quarterback – Talent, aggressiveness of the offensive scheme, durability, offensive line play and difficulty of schedule.

Running back – Talent, job security, durability, percentage of team's backfield touches and red-zone importance.

Wide receiver – Talent, targets/game, scheme fit and the quality of quarterback play.

Tight end – Talent, importance to the team in the red zone, targets/game, scheme fit and the quality of quarterback play.

Reminders:

1. This Big Board is designed for the aforementioned high-stakes leagues which require owners to start one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, a tight end and two flexes.

2. "Value" and SSI are tools I use to help me set up the Big Boards. I do not follow either one blindly, since there has to be a human component in such endeavors in order to account for certain "intangibles".

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 200
OVR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value SSI FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 WR1 Antonio Brown PIT 28 116.67 985.00 23.0 92.0
2 WR2 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23 106.95 971.25 25.6 102.5
3 WR3 Julio Jones ATL 27 108.72 973.75 27.1 108.5
4 RB1 David Johnson ARI 24 129.05 907.50 19.3 77.0
5 WR4 A.J. Green CIN 28 88.39 945.00 21.5 86.0
6 WR5 Allen Robinson JAC 23 80.43 933.75 19.8 79.0
7 RB2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 21 127.99 906.00 20.8 83.0
8 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 27 112.25 917.50 18.0 72.0
9 RB3 Lamar Miller HOU 25 127.28 905.00 21.1 84.5
10 WR6 Brandon Marshall NYJ 32 73.36 923.75 20.0 80.0
11 RB4 Todd Gurley LA 22 124.45 901.00 20.4 81.5
12 RB5 Adrian Peterson MIN 31 122.51 898.30 14.5 58.0
13 RB6 Le'Veon Bell PIT 24 118.44 892.50 13.5 13.5
14 WR7 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24 64.52 911.25 19.3 77.0
15 WR8 Randall Cobb GB 26 50.56 891.50 17.0 51.0
16 WR9 Keenan Allen SD 24 54.80 897.50 18.4 73.5
17 WR10 Mike Evans TB 23 61.87 907.50 16.8 67.0
18 RB7 LeSean McCoy BUF 28 82.38 841.50 13.5 54.0
19 RB8 Devonta Freeman ATL 24 43.84 787.00 16.8 67.0
20 WR11 T.Y. Hilton IND 26 49.85 890.50 17.8 71.0
21 WR12 Dez Bryant DAL 27 67.18 915.00 18.6 74.5
22 TE2 Greg Olsen CAR 31 44.19 821.30 15.9 63.5
23 WR13 Sammy Watkins BUF 23 72.48 816.25 13.8 55.0
24 WR14 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26 19.45 847.50 16.8 67.0
25 WR15 Jarvis Landry MIA 23 38.89 875.00 18.8 75.0
26 WR16 Brandin Cooks NO 22 15.91 842.50 15.0 60.0
27 RB9 Eddie Lacy GB 26 68.59 822.00 14.7 44.0
28 RB10 Mark Ingram NO 26 67.53 820.50 16.4 65.5
29 WR17 Eric Decker NYJ 29 16.97 844.00 17.4 69.5
30 WR18 Donte Moncrief IND 23 36.24 871.25 18.0 72.0
31 WR19 Amari Cooper OAK 22 45.96 885.00 18.8 75.0
32 WR20 Jordy Nelson GB 31 14.14 840.00 14.3 43.0
33 TE3 Jordan Reed WAS 26 87.50 882.50 17.9 71.5
34 RB11 Doug Martin TB 27 82.91 842.30 14.3 57.0
35 WR21 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28 35.36 870.00 16.4 65.5
36 WR22 Jeremy Maclin KC 28 62.76 802.50 14.9 59.5
37 WR23 Golden Tate DET 28 7.95 831.25 15.0 60.0
38 RB12 Jamaal Charles KC 29 91.04 853.80 19.6 78.5
39 WR24 Julian Edelman NE 30 10.61 835.00 16.6 66.5
40 RB13 Danny Woodhead SD 31 37.48 778.00 17.0 68.0
41 RB14 Matt Forte NYJ 30 26.87 763.00 12.5 50.0
42 RB15 Latavius Murray OAK 26 61.52 812.00 14.4 57.5
43 TE4 Travis Kelce KC 26 11.31 774.80 15.0 60.0
44 QB1 Cam Newton CAR 27 73.36 923.00 25.7 102.8
45 WR25 Doug Baldwin SEA 27 0.00 820.00 18.4 73.5
46 WR26 Marvin Jones DET 26 70.71 813.75 14.1 56.5
47 QB2 Aaron Rodgers GB 32 76.54 927.50 26.5 79.5
48 RB16 Carlos Hyde SF 24 65.41 817.50 17.4 69.5
49 RB17 C.J. Anderson DEN 25 22.45 756.80 15.4 61.5
50 TE5 Coby Fleener NO 27 13.26 777.50 16.8 67.0
51 TE6 Delanie Walker TEN 32 45.43 823.00 17.1 68.5
52 QB3 Russell Wilson SEA 23 71.06 919.75 26.0 104.0
53 QB4 Drew Brees NO 37 60.81 905.25 25.2 100.8
54 RB18 Jeremy Hill CIN 23 38.01 778.80 12.8 51.0
55 RB19 Frank Gore IND 33 8.84 737.50 10.9 43.5
56 RB20 Giovani Bernard CIN 24 0.00 725.00 9.5 38.0
57 QB5 Andrew Luck IND 26 70.53 919.00 26.8 107.0
58 WR27 Sterling Shepard NYG 23 2.65 823.75 15.0 60.0
59 TE7 Antonio Gates SD 36 5.30 751.30 18.0 72.0
60 RB21 Jeremy Langford CHI 24 0.53 725.80 13.3 53.0
61 RB22 Charles Sims TB 25 28.99 672.80 11.1 44.5
62 WR28 Tyler Lockett SEA 23 21.21 743.75 13.9 55.5
63 WR29 Michael Floyd ARI 26 47.73 781.25 14.6 58.5
64 WR30 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33 66.29 807.50 14.0 56.0
65 WR31 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 29 62.05 801.50 15.3 61.0
66 WR32 Michael Crabtree OAK 28 62.76 802.50 15.9 63.5
67 RB23 Melvin Gordon SD 23 3.54 718.80 13.3 53.0
68 RB24 DeMarco Murray TEN 28 5.30 721.30 12.3 49.0
69 WR33 DeSean Jackson WAS 29 2.65 717.50 11.6 46.5
70 WR34 John Brown ARI 26 65.41 806.25 16.9 67.5
71 RB25 Thomas Rawls SEA 23 3.54 730.00 15.3 61.0
72 QB6 Eli Manning NYG 35 47.20 886.00 23.1 92.3
73 QB7 Philip Rivers SD 34 47.55 886.50 23.1 92.3
74 TE8 Gary Barnidge CLE 30 4.24 764.80 12.4 49.5
75 WR35 Tavon Austin LA 25 2.65 717.50 10.1 40.5
76 WR36 Jordan Matthews PHI 24 29.17 755.00 11.7 35.0
77 RB26 Rashad Jennings NYG 31 22.63 681.80 13.3 53.0
78 RB27 Ryan Mathews PHI 28 7.95 725.00 12.3 37.0
79 WR37 Josh Gordon CLE 25 4.42 707.50 0.0 0.0
80 WR38 Stefon Diggs MIN 22 19.45 741.25 15.6 62.5
81 WR39 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25 53.92 790.00 12.3 49.0
82 WR40 Corey Coleman CLE 22 22.98 746.25 11.5 46.0
83 QB8 Tom Brady NE 39 57.98 901.25 0.0 0.0
84 RB28 Derrick Henry TEN 22 1.24 726.80 7.9 31.5
85 TE9 Julius Thomas JAC 28 16.79 782.50 18.8 75.0
86 TE10 Zach Ertz PHI 25 22.10 790.00 14.8 44.5
87 RB29 Spencer Ware KC 24 10.25 699.30 4.9 19.5
88 RB30 DeAngelo Williams PIT 33 4.42 720.00 19.1 76.5
89 WR41 Allen Hurns JAC 24 38.01 767.50 13.1 52.5
90 RB31 T.J. Yeldon JAC 22 42.07 654.30 10.0 40.0
91 RB32 Jonathan Stewart CAR 29 1.41 711.80 9.6 38.5
92 RB33 Chris Ivory JAC 28 0.00 713.80 11.5 46.0
93 TE11 Martellus Bennett NE 29 4.24 764.80 13.5 54.0
94 RB34 Isaiah Crowell CLE 23 4.42 731.30 10.6 42.5
95 QB9 Carson Palmer ARI 36 66.82 913.75 24.5 98.0
96 QB10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34 70.53 919.00 22.1 88.3
97 RB35 Duke Johnson CLE 22 3.54 718.80 9.9 39.5
98 RB36 Ameer Abdullah DET 23 18.21 688.00 9.6 38.5
99 WR42 DeVante Parker MIA 23 51.27 786.25 13.6 54.5
100 TE12 Tyler Eifert CIN 25 23.86 792.50 11.5 11.5
101 WR43 Vincent Jackson TB 33 11.49 730.00 12.5 50.0
102 WR44 Travis Benjamin SD 26 2.65 710.00 13.4 53.5
103 RB37 Arian Foster MIA 30 35.36 663.80 11.8 47.0
104 RB38 Matt Jones WAS 23 0.35 713.30 14.8 59.0
105 QB11 Blake Bortles JAC 24 25.99 856.00 24.1 96.5
106 QB12 Kirk Cousins WAS 28 3.36 814.50 21.8 87.0
107 WR45 Tajae Sharpe TEN 21 4.42 707.50 10.3 41.0
108 WR46 Kevin White CHI 24 60.99 800.00 11.6 46.5
109 RB39 Tevin Coleman ATL 23 27.40 675.00 10.5 42.0
110 RB40 Christine Michael SEA 25 52.68 639.30 2.9 11.5
111 TE13 Jason Witten DAL 34 33.76 711.00 13.5 54.0
112 TE14 Dwayne Allen IND 26 68.06 662.50 9.6 38.5
113 WR47 Willie Snead NO 23 30.05 671.25 9.1 36.5
114 QB13 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27 22.10 788.00 19.8 79.3
115 QB14 Matthew Stafford DET 28 0.00 819.25 22.8 91.3
116 RB41 Bilal Powell NYJ 27 76.37 605.80 7.8 31.0
117 RB42 Darren Sproles PHI 33 96.34 577.50 9.8 29.5
118 RB43 James White NE 24 15.03 692.50 16.5 66.0
119 TE15 Jared Cook GB 29 103.41 612.50 14.5 43.5
120 WR48 Mike Wallace BAL 30 22.98 681.25 11.8 47.0
121 WR49 Mohamed Sanu ATL 27 76.01 606.25 7.0 28.0
122 WR50 Michael Thomas NO 21 7.07 723.75 10.0 40.0
123 WR51 Markus Wheaton PIT 25 1.77 716.25 13.4 53.5
124 WR52 Kenny Stills MIA 24 48.61 645.00 9.1 36.5
125 WR53 Kamar Aiken BAL 27 7.07 723.75 11.1 44.5
126 QB15 Jameis Winston TB 22 18.21 793.50 21.2 84.8
127 TE16 Virgil Green DEN 28 52.15 685.00 8.1 32.5
128 TE17 Clive Walford OAK 24 30.94 715.00 13.5 54.0
129 QB16 Derek Carr OAK 25 19.98 791.00 22.2 88.8
130 WR54 Tyler Boyd CIN 21 52.15 640.00 5.6 22.5
131 WR55 Devin Funchess CAR 22 32.70 667.50 9.3 37.0
132 WR56 Will Fuller HOU 22 54.80 636.25 12.3 49.0
133 WR57 Phillip Dorsett IND 23 12.37 696.25 13.8 55.0
134 QB17 Marcus Mariota TEN 22 41.72 760.25 20.8 83.3
135 WR58 Torrey Smith SF 27 40.66 771.25 9.9 39.5
136 RB44 Justin Forsett BAL 30 72.12 611.80 10.9 43.5
137 RB45 Shaun Draughn SF 28 122.33 540.80 6.3 25.0
138 RB46 C.J. Spiller NO 29 103.41 567.50 9.8 39.0
139 TE18 Eric Ebron DET 23 0.00 758.80 14.1 56.5
140 TE19 Vance McDonald SF 26 83.97 640.00 9.9 39.5
141 TE20 Kyle Rudolph MIN 26 68.94 661.30 14.0 56.0
142 RB47 Theo Riddick DET 25 51.62 640.80 9.6 38.5
143 RB48 Devontae Booker DEN 24 53.03 638.80 8.8 35.0
144 RB49 LeGarrette Blount NE 29 62.76 625.00 6.4 25.5
145 RB50 Jay Ajayi MIA 23 126.40 535.00 4.1 16.5
146 RB51 Chris Johnson ARI 30 119.15 545.30 5.4 21.5
147 WR59 Rishard Matthews TEN 26 39.77 657.50 10.0 40.0
148 RB52 DeAndre Washington OAK 23 97.05 576.50 8.0 32.0
149 RB53 Terrance West BAL 25 36.24 662.50 10.8 43.0
150 TE21 Jimmy Graham SEA 29 63.64 668.80 10.0 40.0
151 TE22 Zach Miller CHI 31 100.06 617.30 7.9 31.5
152 QB18 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33 8.31 807.50 19.9 79.5
153 QB19 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28 8.31 807.50 22.6 90.5
154 WR60 Eli Rogers PIT 23 30.05 671.25 9.6 38.5
155 WR61 Davante Adams GB 23 37.12 661.25 8.3 25.0
156 WR62 Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 30 85.74 592.50 7.9 31.5
157 WR63 Anquan Boldin DET 35 28.28 673.75 10.4 41.5
158 QB20 Matt Ryan ATL 31 37.48 766.25 21.4 85.5
159 RB54 Jerick McKinnon MIN 24 92.98 582.30 7.6 30.5
160 RB55 Alfred Morris DAL 27 154.15 495.80 3.8 15.0
161 RB56 Kenneth Dixon BAL 22 74.78 608.00 0.0 0.0
162 TE23 Charles Clay BUF 27 63.64 668.80 12.0 48.0
163 WR64 Brandon LaFell CIN 29 53.92 637.50 7.1 28.5
164 RB57 James Starks GB 30 131.70 527.50 6.3 19.0
165 RB58 Shane Vereen NYG 27 128.16 532.50 9.1 36.5
166 RB59 Tim Hightower NO 30 131.35 528.00 2.9 11.5
167 RB60 C.J. Prosise SEA 22 91.57 584.30 7.3 29.0
168 QB21 Andy Dalton CIN 28 8.49 807.25 17.6 70.3
169 QB22 Robert Griffin III CLE 26 73.19 715.75 20.9 83.8
170 RB61 Dion Lewis NE 25 27.40 752.50 0.0 0.0
171 WR65 Chris Hogan NE 27 113.14 553.75 5.4 21.5
172 TE24 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23 68.06 662.50 7.1 28.5
173 WR66 Jermaine Kearse SEA 26 64.52 622.50 10.1 40.5
174 WR67 Terrance Williams DAL 26 107.83 561.25 8.3 33.0
175 RB62 Benny Cunningham LA 26 169.53 474.00 4.0 16.0
176 RB63 Chris Thompson WAS 25 199.76 431.30 6.4 25.5
177 WR68 Seth Roberts OAK 25 79.55 601.25 8.8 35.0
178 RB64 Tyler Ervin HOU 22 129.93 530.00 4.1 16.4
179 RB65 Darren McFadden DAL 29 137.89 518.80 8.3 16.5
180 TE25 Crockett Gillmore BAL 24 30.94 715.00 10.0 40.0
181 WR69 Terrelle Pryor CLE 27 80.43 600.00 10.9 43.5
182 WR70 Chris Conley KC 23 78.67 602.50 7.5 30.0
183 WR71 Breshad Perriman BAL 22 60.10 628.75 6.6 26.5
184 WR72 Jamison Crowder WAS 23 54.80 636.25 6.6 26.5
185 WR73 Braxton Miller HOU 23 65.41 615.00 10.5 42.0
186 QB23 Brock Osweiler HOU 25 74.42 714.00 20.5 82.0
187 QB24 Joe Flacco BAL 31 44.37 756.50 21.1 84.5
188 TE26 Jesse James PIT 22 63.64 668.75 10.5 42.0
189 WR74 Josh Doctson WAS 23 48.61 645.00 5.8 23.0
190 WR75 Pierre Garcon WAS 30 53.92 637.50 6.6 26.5
191 WR76 Laquon Treadwell MIN 21 6.19 705.00 9.0 36.0
192 WR77 Jaron Brown ARI 26 154.68 495.00 1.5 6.0
193 QB25 Alex Smith KC 32 53.39 743.75 20.6 82.5
194 RB66 Paul Perkins NYG 21 109.96 558.30 2.1 8.5
195 RB67 Charcandrick West KC 25 160.87 486.30 2.4 9.5
196 WR78 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 23 60.99 627.50 5.7 17.0
197 WR79 Eddie Royal CHI 30 114.02 552.50 7.6 30.5
198 WR80 Quinton Patton SF 26 171.47 471.25 10.1 40.5
199 RB68 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 26 118.79 545.80 2.1 8.5
200 TE27 Dennis Pitta BAL 31 89.27 632.50 10.4 41.5


Next: TFC

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.