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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


First Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC South
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/2/16
East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

The first NFL preseason game will kick off at the end of this week and I couldn't be happier about it. No, the Hall of Fame Game isn't the end-all and be-all of exhibition contests, but it means my first fantasy drafts are less than two weeks away. Outside of receiving the prize check in late January or early February each year, I can't think of a better time to be fantasy fanatic. Before we get there, however, we have some more work to do this week and next. So let's not waste another second.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC South. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season. I think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. It's not as complex as it sounds and, after working out the kinks last year, I think it will lead to the best set of Big Boards yet.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations reasonable in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than league-average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2016.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PAvg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NAvg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC South

 Houston Texans
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CHI KC NE TEN MIN IND DEN DET bye JAC OAK SD GB IND JAC CIN
QB Brock Osweiler 25 19.3 19.3 77 77 1075 265 290 245 275
TD 6 1 2 1 2
INT 3 0 2 1 0
Ru Yards 40 5 10 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Lamar Miller 25 21.1 17.6 84.5 70.5 390 105 75 85 125
Ru TD 3 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 135 25 65 35 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 4 6 3 1
RB Alfred Blue 25 5.5 5.3 22 21 85 15 20 15 35
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 1 0 0
WR DeAndre Hopkins 24 17.8 11.3 71 45 330 105 85 55 85
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 26 9 6 4 7
WR Jaelen Strong 22 10.4 6.1 41.5 24.5 185 45 30 70 40
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 17 4 3 6 4
WR Cecil Shorts 28 8.6 5.1 34.5 20.5 145 20 40 55 30
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 14 2 4 5 3
WR Will Fuller 22 8.1 6.6 32.5 26.5 145 25 55 0 65
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 6 1 2 0 3
TE Ryan Griffin 26 4.9 2.6 19.5 10.5 105 35 10 25 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 3 1 2 3

Houston and Chicago led the league with 424 carries from the running back position last season, while Miami ranked last with 290. Dolphins' running backs combined for fewer than 20 rush attempts 10 times last year, while Texans' running backs carried the ball at least 20 times in all but two games (and went over 30 six times!). Houston ran even though it wasn't particularly successful (team 3.7 YPC was tied for third-worst in the league) and continued to do so even without Arian Foster. Miller averaged 10.6 carries throughout his four-year career in South Beach and topped out at 12.1 in 2015 en route to a top-five finish in PPR leagues. One final nugget: Miller, who hasn't missed a start in three years, had six fewer carries and one more touch overall than DeAngelo Williams, who started only 10 games and saw a total of 22 carries and five receptions in his six non-starts. Can you see where this is going? There are a ton of these kind of stats, all of which point to his lack of use in Miami and the huge workload he is set up for in Houston. I have him projected for 18 carries and 21.5 total touches per game through the first quarter of the season - a workload I expect him to maintain throughout the season. Assuming he can navigate the first seven weeks, he could easily post fantasy MVP numbers the rest of the way. Cincinnati (Week 16) poses the biggest second-half threat to Miller against the run, but the Bengals' lack of athleticism at linebacker (which was exposed last year as backs caught 102 passes against them) will most likely allow the former Dolphin to have a big day in the passing game.

The Texans attempted 617 passes last year. Despite inking Osweiler to a contract that averages $18 M per year, they are unlikely to match that number in 2016. It's easy to forget Houston was playing from behind most of the time during its dreadful start (leading to 46.7 pass attempts per game) but averaged only 32.2 attempts after their Week 7 debacle versus the Dolphins. As one might expect, the fantasy-point totals - which were remarkably consistent over the first half of the season considering the quality of the quarterback play - were highly inconsistent over the second half. If Houston HC Bill O'Brien gets his wish, those low attempt totals will be the norm in 2016, which will mean Osweiler will need to maximize the few opportunities he has in order to be anything more than a low-level matchup-based quarterback. Given how juicy the schedule for Miller is after the bye, the odds are high Osweiler will appear on more than a few waiver wires by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. Hopkins actually has a brutal slate in 2016. I don't see him matching last year's 111 catches or 1,521 yards for a number of reasons, although none of them have to do with bad luck or his ability. The running game will be better. Other receivers like Fuller and Strong will make defenses respect the opposite side of the field. However, those are two main reasons why I think he can surpass last year's 11 touchdown catches (he does need some help from O'Brien inside the 10, however). If he doesn't reach that lofty goal, it might be because Strong is stealing some of his thunder. The second-year wideout was one of the best in the 2015 draft class at winning contested catches, which should make him a red-zone force sooner than later, especially now that he is down to 197 pounds after weighing around 220 as a rookie. I'd really like to see Stephen Anderson emerge as the secondary target to open things up even more for Hopkins and Miller, but I'm not betting on an undrafted rookie free agent to make a sizeable impact - especially at tight end - in an offense that virtually ignored the position last year.

 Indianapolis Colts
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DET DEN SD JAC CHI HOU TEN KC GB bye TEN PIT NYJ HOU MIN OAK
QB Andrew Luck 26 27.9 27.9 111.6 111.6 1240 300 325 290 325
TD 10 3 2 3 2
INT 3 0 2 0 1
Ru Yards 80 15 25 15 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Frank Gore 33 10.9 8.6 43.5 34.5 230 55 45 80 50
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 55 10 5 25 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 1 4 2
RB Josh Ferguson 23 5.4 2.9 21.5 11.5 45 10 0 25 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 70 15 25 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 2 3 2 3
WR T.Y. Hilton 26 17.8 11.8 71 47 350 110 65 90 85
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 24 7 4 7 6
WR Donte Moncrief 23 18 12.5 72 50 320 75 100 65 80
Re TD 3 1 1 0 1
Rec 22 6 5 5 6
WR Phillip Dorsett 23 13.8 9.8 55 39 270 50 85 65 70
Re TD 2 0 0 1 1
Rec 16 3 4 4 5
WR Quan Bray 23 1.9 0.9 7.5 3.5 35 5 0 0 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 0 3
TE Dwayne Allen 26 8.4 5.9 33.5 23.5 115 25 30 35 25
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 10 2 3 3 2

One factor I don't consider in the schedule analysis is age or career workload (that comes in a week or two). Although I'm pretty sure those excuses will get thrown around a lot by the time we get to December and January this year, I'm not sure it will be fair or accurate in regards to Gore. The Colts made a well-overdue investment into their offensive line on draft day, but outside of C Ryan Kelly, I'm not sure it is going to pay off right away. Gore is primarily a middle-of-the-field runner (he has been for some time) and will need solid guard play in order for him to increase his 3.7 YPC a season ago. LG Jack Mewhort graded out as one of the league's best guards last year, but can we really expect Kelly and presumptive new starting RG Jonotthan Harrison or Mars Hill product Denzelle Good to hold up their end of the bargain? They are going to need to, as there is virtually no give to Indy's schedule in regards to run defenses after Week 5. During the yellow and red streak which follows that week, the Colts will play nine games against teams that finished no worse than 11th in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs last year. While I don't heavily factor last season's points against a position during this analysis, it seems highly unlikely that most of those same run defenses won't perform at a high level again next year. The fact Indianapolis now has Ferguson around to contribute in the passing game - and given how much the team likes him - makes it even more likely Gore could be highly inconsistent this season. If Gore is going to come close to last year's 12.1 fantasy-point-per-game average, he'll need to do so by scoring more than seven touchdowns.

Volume is a word that gets tosses around too much nowadays in fantasy football. It is not always the cure-all for a difficult schedule or limited personnel. It does make a difference, however, when we are discussing players as talented as Luck. Although we may never know for sure, I'm fairly certain the NFL's richest player was never healthy and got beat up so much in the first two games that he started to press, only to make things worse. Luck's 2016 schedule is far from easy, but the combination of a supremely talented three-wide set (which is expected to be the team's base formation this year), OC Rob Chudzinski and the aforementioned volume could allow him to enjoy a career year. In this case, the yellows are more alerts than warnings; I'll take 40-plus pass attempts per game from Luck to Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett and Allen over just about any defense. With that said, the fantasy playoffs represent the offense's greatest challenge of the season, so don't count on superhuman performances in those contests. Hilton gets to escape most of the poor matchups with his work in the slot, although his well-documented home/road splits are going to be a problem over the final four weeks of the fantasy season (three road games). As per usual, he might fall short of WR1 numbers, but high-end WR2 production should be well within his reach. Moncrief and Dorsett have nearly identical matchup lines, but I'm not sure their yellows are going to matter most of the time either. Extrapolated over a full season, Moncrief's seven games with Luck as the starter last year would have led to a 73-802-11 line. Given his talent, size (6-2, 226) and the fact Indy is replacing over 200 targets from last year, he's a good bet to reach those catch and touchdown numbers this year (while improving on last year's 11.5 YPC). Whereas size is what makes Moncrief unique among this group of receivers, Dorsett is even faster than Hilton. The second-year pro may be more of a hit-or-miss fantasy proposition, but most teams simply don't have a third corner that can run like him, so he'll have his share of week-winning fantasy performances. (Again, treat both Moncrief and Dorsett's yellows as alerts rather than warnings.) Chudzinski loves making stars out of the tight end position, so Allen needs to be taken seriously as a high-end TE2. Something to keep in mind, however, is that Allen is a good blocker and has run pass routes on less than half of his snaps over the last two seasons. He figures once again to be heavily reliant on red-zone scores, so matchups probably won't matter much to him either.

 Jacksonville Jaguars
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
GB SD BAL IND bye CHI OAK TEN KC HOU DET BUF DEN MIN HOU TEN
QB Blake Bortles 24 22.1 22.1 88.2 88.2 1080 285 230 280 285
TD 8 2 1 3 2
INT 5 2 2 1 0
Ru Yards 70 20 15 25 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Chris Ivory 28 11.5 10.5 46 42 270 55 100 45 70
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 30 10 5 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 2 0
RB T.J. Yeldon 22 10 6.5 40 26 155 30 55 25 45
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 105 30 25 15 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 5 3 2 4
WR Allen Robinson 23 15 9.8 60 39 270 85 60 75 50
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 21 7 5 5 4
WR Allen Hurns 24 13.1 8.9 52.5 35.5 235 40 55 65 75
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 17 3 4 5 5
WR Rashad Greene 23 6.1 3.9 24.5 15.5 95 35 10 45 5
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 9 3 1 4 1
WR Marqise Lee 24 4.3 2.3 17 9 90 15 10 25 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 1 2 3
TE Julius Thomas 28 16.1 10.9 64.5 43.5 255 70 65 40 80
Re TD 3 1 0 0 2
Rec 21 5 6 4 6

Some people believe the signing of Ivory means Jacksonville is ready to become a more balanced offense, especially in the red zone. Others believe the team added the former Saint and Jet mostly because Yeldon couldn't "get it done" in short-yardage or goal-line situations, which just happened to be a strong suit of his at Alabama. Still others believe it just isn't in OC Greg Olson's DNA to commit to the run, which sounds the most right to me. Given their current eighth- and ninth-round ADPs, respectively, I'm not sure owners of Ivory and Yeldon are going to care all that much so long as both players are seeing roughly 10-12 touches per game. Much like the case was above with Frank Gore, there aren't a ton of favorable matchups for Jacksonville running backs period this year. (Remember, I factor in favorable receiving situations for the position as well.) The likely 60-40 or 55-45 workload split between Ivory and Yeldon figures to put a RB3 ceiling on both players and make it even more difficult for either one to overcome a tough first quarter of the season and a daunting post-bye slate. Still, Ivory has always been able to get more than what is blocked and Yeldon is a very good receiving back, so I highly doubt either one will disappoint at their current draft spot. Based on their schedules, it would seem Yeldon is the better bet as the superior option in the passing game. Despite the Jaguars' impressive offseason, it isn't hard to imagine them falling behind teams with very good offenses like the Packers, Chargers and Colts before the bye. After Week 7, they face only one defense (Detroit, 15th) that finished in the top half of (most) fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Lions should be much better versus the run this year, however, assuming DT Haloti Ngata and LB DeAndre Levy are healthy at that point of the season.

Bortles threw 37.1 percent (13 of 35) passing touchdowns last year in three games last year (two against the two worst pass defenses of the NFC South and one against the AFC South's worst). The defense added a boatload of talent and the team is paying Ivory over $6 M/year to bring some physicality to the offense. I doubt the NFC North or the Titans will be as accommodating this season, so improvement will have to come via improved efficiency (58.6 completion percentage to go along with 18 interceptions in 2015) or more volume (the team discussed using more no-huddle in the offseason) if owners have any illusions about Bortles' ability to deliver another 30-plus passing scores. While the slate is not quite as brutal as it is for the running game, I have the third-year quarterbacks down for eight yellows and one red, which probably means he is destined to fall into the low-end QB1 conversation in 12-team leagues despite a strong supporting cast. It appears his most consistent stretch should come between Weeks 4-8, but I don't like his chances of helping teams during the fantasy postseason at all. Robinson isn't unlike DeAndre Hopkins in the sense that both do a lot of damage downfield by using their incredible ball skills to overcome less-than-ideal measurables. I think his 80 catches and 1,400 yards are repeatable in 2016, but I'm not sure his 14 touchdowns are if Thomas can play most of the season. Although I think most owners will draft him as a WR1, they will probably view him as more of a high-end fantasy WR2 in December. Hurns was the primary slot receiver last year and shouldn't be expected to score 10 times again. With Robinson and Thomas healthy and anything resembling a decent ground game, he's a strong candidate to disappoint at his current 5.10 ADP. I think whatever decline Robinson and Hurns experience will be to the benefit of Thomas, whose biggest enemy has always been his durability. Given the glowing offseason reports (one of the few that I am actually willing to buy) regarding Bortles and Thomas, I'll take the artist formerly known as Orange Julius against all but the top safety/linebacker combinations in the NFL. Thus, I expect Thomas to win roughly half of his yellow matchups and be a clear TE1 even if he only plays 12-14 games.

 Tennessee Titans
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIN DET OAK HOU MIA CLE IND JAC SD GB IND CHI bye DEN KC JAC
QB Marcus Mariota 22 20.1 20.1 80.5 80.5 1075 230 325 250 270
TD 5 1 2 1 1
INT 2 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 115 30 10 50 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB DeMarco Murray 28 12.3 9.8 49 39 250 70 50 95 35
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 80 15 30 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 2 4 1 3
RB Derrick Henry 22 7.9 6.6 31.5 26.5 170 35 30 55 50
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 35 20 0 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 3 0 1 1
RB Dexter McCluster 28 4.9 2.6 19.5 10.5 25 5 0 5 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 80 10 20 15 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 1 2 2 4
WR Rishard Matthews 26 10.3 6.3 41 25 190 55 65 20 50
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 16 4 5 2 5
WR Tajae Sharpe 21 3.3 1.8 13 7 70 25 35 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 3 1 0
WR Kendall Wright 26 10 6.5 40 26 200 25 35 85 55
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 14 2 3 5 4
WR Dorial Green-Beckham 23 5.9 4.1 23.5 16.5 105 15 50 30 10
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 7 1 3 2 1
WR Andre Johnson 35 4 2.8 16 11 50 0 10 25 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 5 0 1 2 2
TE Delanie Walker 32 14.1 8.1 56.5 32.5 265 65 80 50 70
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 24 6 7 5 6

The NFL schedule doesn't seem like it should be a big deal within a division. After all, each team shares all but two of the same opponents each year, so what's the big deal? Well, compare the Titans to the previous two teams for part of the answer. I expect Tennessee and Houston to own the best rushing defenses in the AFC South this season. The Titans obviously don't play against themselves and only face Houston once during the fantasy season. Thus, Tennessee has three fewer potential yellows/reds than the Colts and Jaguars before we even get to the more specific analysis I do for each matchup that takes projected game flow and volume into account. As a result, the path looks much less daunting for Murray and Henry than it does for Frank Gore, Chris Ivory or T.J. Yeldon. The Titans' backs appear to have a relatively easy path once they get out of the first quarter of the season, but one has to wonder if a slow four-game stretch by Murray to begin the season will lead to a split backfield with Henry by Week 5, which makes new OL coach Russ Grimm one of the most important offseason additions for Tennessee. With the selection of No. 8 overall pick RT Jack Conklin, the Titans now have three first-round picks on the offensive line that greatly disappointed last year. If Grimm can get them playing to the level they are capable of, look out. It's difficult to say whether or not Murray's 2015 was the byproduct of overuse in 2014 in Dallas or the beginning of his career decline. The first quarter of the season should give us a pretty definitive answer in that regard. The fantasy playoffs will be another issue for owners, not only because of the late bye, but because Denver and Kansas City (Weeks 14-15) are waiting on the other side. If the Jaguars' defensive chemistry has caught up with their talent by the Tennessee meets Jacksonville in Week 16, the entire fantasy postseason could be a wash. In short, owners need to hope the extreme volume the Titans want on offense becomes a reality in first and fourth quarters of the season. For what it is worth, I suspect Henry will begin to emerge as the lead back about the same time the schedule begins to ease up in Week 5.

Mariota accounted for at least three touchdowns in four of his 12 starts, yet did not throw or run for a score in four others. That inconsistency is probably what one might expect from a rookie quarterback, but there are more positives than negatives to draw from that considering he had Walker and a lot of question marks at receiver with virtually no running game. His supporting cast should be better this season, but I'm not sure he's going to see the volume (33.2 pass attempts in his 11 full games last year) he needs in order to take a huge step forward for his owners. His running ability will help with some of that, but the coaching staff knows it will be taking a big risk using his legs too much considering he missed four games (and most of a fifth) last year due to knee injuries. Much as was the case with Murray and Henry, Mariota's biggest challenges figure to come in the first and fourth quarters of the season, although he should enjoy relatively smooth sailing from Weeks 5-12, making him a fine matchup-based starter for most of the year. Last week's addition of Johnson might blow up the depth chart at receiver, although one has to think Matthews is safe as one outside receiver and Wright is probably still locked in at the slot. Either way, I'm not crazy about the potential of this receiver group delivering a regular fantasy starter (maybe Wright as a low-end WR3 if he can stay healthy as a slot who will avoid most of the opponents' top corners). I believe every yellow is a legit one for Matthews, who probably is not ready to beat the likes of Xavier Rhodes, Darius Slay, Sean Smith, Johnathan Joseph (Weeks 1-4), Vontae Davis (Weeks 7 and 11) or Jason Verrett (Week 9) on a regular basis. Obviously, not all of those players will shadow Matthews - in fact it is entirely possible none of them will - but I included it here because to give each of you an idea as to the level of competition he will face before the bye. Needless to say, it doesn't get easier after Week 13 either. The news is dramatically different for Walker, who is probably going to see a fairly sizeable decrease from his 133 targets, 94 catches and 1,088 receiving yards a season ago with the additions of Matthews, Sharpe and Johnson. With that said, he could easily make that up by scoring more touchdowns as an improved running game and more talent at receiver should free things up for him.

NFC South

 Atlanta Falcons
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TB OAK NO CAR DEN SEA SD GB TB PHI bye ARI KC LA SF CAR
QB Matt Ryan 31 21.6 21.6 86.5 86.5 1100 315 260 265 260
TD 8 3 2 2 1
INT 4 0 2 1 1
Ru Yards 25 5 10 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Devonta Freeman 24 16.8 12.8 67 51 255 55 60 65 75
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 135 30 55 30 20
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 16 4 5 4 3
RB Tevin Coleman 23 10.5 8.5 42 34 230 45 55 80 50
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 50 15 10 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 2 1 3
WR Julio Jones 27 27.1 18.4 108.5 73.5 495 135 90 115 155
Re TD 4 2 0 1 1
Rec 35 10 6 9 10
WR Mohamed Sanu 27 7 3.8 28 15 150 45 25 40 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 4 2 3 4
WR Justin Hardy 24 3.4 1.6 13.5 6.5 65 25 15 5 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 2 1 2
TE Austin Hooper 21 5.9 4.6 23.5 18.5 65 30 10 25 0
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 5 2 1 2 0
TE Jacob Tamme 31 7.4 4.6 29.5 18.5 125 25 55 35 10
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 11 2 5 3 1

As long as OC Kyle Shanahan is running the show, owners can count on a productive running game in Atlanta. What is less clear is exactly how the Falcons plan on splitting up the workload. Atlanta has been very public about its desire to get Coleman more touches and even suggested the major difference between the two is that Coleman provides more big-play ability. If I didn't know any better, I'd guess Freeman's status as a Week 1 starter isn't even set in stone yet. Regardless, it does appear he is the favorite to be the lead back as well as the preferred option on passing downs. Based on the lack of star power in Atlanta after Jones, the latter role should be enough to keep Freeman in the conversation as a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Coleman is shaping up to be an extreme value in the ninth round. Having said that, most of the yellows on the running game slate are legitimately difficult run defenses, so Freeman and Coleman will have to earn just about everything they get, meaning passing-game work and big-play ability will matter even more this year than last. The bad news is there is no particular sweet spot in the schedule after Week 3 that might allow the Falcons to build some steam; road games in Denver and Seattle (Weeks 5 and 6) will be particularly difficult. Shanahan will find a way to make it work, but owners should be prepared for well over 100 receptions from the running backs (97 last year) and a substantial decline from the 381 carries the position mustered in 2015.

Fun fact: Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger finished with identical touchdown (21) and interception (16) totals last season. The biggest difference: Big Ben played in four fewer games and Ryan fumbled 10 more times. While Year 2 in Shanahan's system should help Ryan eliminate all the backbreaking turnovers he was responsible for last year, the schedule offers plenty of reason why it is going to be hard for him to return to QB1 status in 2016. From Weeks 5-13, Atlanta will have only two favorable passing-game matchups (and that assumes the Eagles' corners aren't substantially better in the post-Chip Kelly era and under the guidance of new DC Jim Schwartz). If we include Carolina and Los Angeles as potential yellows, there Ryan will struggle to be even a dependable matchup-based starter after Week 3. Jones is set up for another huge season (targets as well as production), although he is likely to get shadowed (at least some of the time) by Richard Sherman (Week 6) and Patrick Peterson (Week 12), I'll take my chances with a freakish receiver as good as Jones entering his prime against any cornerback, however; injury is the only concern for him. In all his other matchups, he's a candidate for around 10 catches, 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown. Some might see Sanu as an improvement over Roddy White; I'm not sure I agree. He is certainly more versatile in that he can threaten the defense with the occasional gadget play, but he's going to be stretched to be more than a WR5 most weeks even with an easy schedule. I was initially a fan of Hooper - possibly as a red-zone maven - but I'm not so sure after this analysis. Not only are rookie tight ends notoriously poor fantasy bets, but it seems just about every opponent has a formidable cover linebacker, free safety or both. Given the likelihood that Tamme will work out of the slot at least some of the time and doesn't bring much of a downfield threat to the offense, defenses will probably let him do his thing underneath more often than not. He should still be a serviceable bye-week tight end option.

 Carolina Panthers
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DEN SF MIN ATL TB NO bye ARI LA KC NO OAK SEA SD WAS ATL
QB Cam Newton 27 26.2 26.2 104.6 104.6 1015 275 240 230 270
TD 7 1 3 1 2
INT 2 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 140 40 25 20 55
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
RB Jonathan Stewart 29 9.6 8.9 38.5 35.5 275 45 105 55 70
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 20 5 0 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 0 1 1
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 26 2.1 1.9 8.5 7.5 70 10 25 15 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 1 0 0
RB Mike Tolbert 30 6.3 4 25 16 30 15 10 0 5
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 70 15 10 15 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 1 2 4
WR Kelvin Benjamin 25 12.3 8.8 49 35 230 45 60 40 85
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 14 3 4 2 5
WR Devin Funchess 22 9.3 6 37 24 180 55 30 40 55
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 13 4 2 3 4
WR Ted Ginn Jr. 30 7.9 5.9 31.5 23.5 175 65 50 15 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 8 3 2 1 2
WR Stephen Hill 25 5.6 4.1 22.5 16.5 105 20 30 45 10
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 6 1 2 2 1
TE Greg Olsen 31 13.5 8.8 54 35 230 70 55 65 40
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 19 5 5 6 3

Stewart & Co. may have the most hit-or-miss schedule of the year. Only Ezekiel Elliott has more green matchups among running backs we've covered so far. Of course, none of those contests are back-to-back, conveniently placed in between the eight total reds and yellows throughout the first 13 weeks of the season. Let's be clear about one thing before proceeding: The Panthers aren't like any other team; they can run on anyone they want so long as they don't abandon the zone-read like they did in the Super Bowl. The problem is it is difficult to project run-game matchups when so much of a team's rushing attack relies on a play that depends so heavily on the split-second decision of an unblocked defensive end. Be that as it may, the perfect storm of events that came together for Carolina last year is unlikely to happen again, meaning Stewart probably isn't going to average 18.6 carries in 2016. Without his overwhelming volume as a runner and given his low usage as a receiver, it seems rather clear J-Stew is going to be incredibly up-and-down for at least the first 10 weeks. After that, much will depend on his health (always a concern) and the Panthers' ability to play the same kind of defense that allowed them to run a league-high 526 times a season ago. Of course, this all assumes the foot soreness that has plagued Stewart since the Super Bowl is a non-issue by September. If it's not, consider this a committee backfield led by Artis-Payne with Newton likely to take on even more of the rushing load.

We're not going to spend a lot of time on Newton. The five yellows are legit, but I think last year proved he has become nearly matchup-proof. I think it is entirely possible OC Mike Shula will ask even more of his quarterback this season - especially if Stewart is limited in any way - further solidifying him as a top-five quarterback option once again. Olsen loses out on at least a couple of additional scores each year because Newton scores so often on goal-to-go runs, but his place in the pecking order of the passing game is secure. Lack of volume - as in lack of targets due to game situation or the amount of success the team has running the ball at times - and not matchups often dictate whether or not Olsen is an elite fantasy option at tight end each week. The real intrigue on this team is at receiver. Benjamin may end up performing like the fantasy WR2 he was as a rookie, but I would strongly consider letting someone else take that chance: Over the two seasons Benjamin has been a pro (he obviously missed all of 2015 with an ACL injury), Olsen has been a constant in just about every game situation. Now take a look at Benjamin's splits in wins versus losses in 2014 and think back to last season's receivers in Carolina. Ginn was great as a waiver-wire pickup but inconsistent and the rest of the Panthers' receiving corps was rarely relevant in fantasy. Combine that with ESPN reporter David Newton suggesting Carolina will utilize more of a committee approach at receiver this year. When recent history starts matching up with informed speculation from beat writers, it should raise an eyebrow. Yes, Benjamin can and should be a red-zone beast again, but do the Panthers really need him to be one? If this offenses hums anything like it did last year, probably not. Yet another factor working against Benjamin is the difficulty of his second-half schedule. Starting in Week 8, he can probably expect to see a healthy dose of stud corners like Patrick Peterson (Week 8), Marcus Peters (Week 10), Delvin Breaux (Week 11), Sean Smith (Week 12), Richard Sherman (Week 13), ex-teammate Josh Norman (Week 15) and Desmond Trufant (Week 16). The point isn't whether or not more than half of this group actually shadows him or not, but rather to illustrate just how difficult his path to fantasy success could be. I like Benjamin as a high-upside WR3, but I think I've made a pretty strong case as to why he shouldn't be considered a WR2. Funchess was reportedly impressing coaches during the offseason, but I have a hard time seeing him as anything more than a WR5 barring another injury to Benjamin. The same goes for Corey Brown, Ginn or any other Panther wideout for that matter.

 New Orleans Saints
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
OAK NYG ATL SD bye CAR KC SEA SF DEN CAR LA DET TB ARI TB
QB Drew Brees 37 26.3 26.3 105.2 105.2 1255 335 320 290 310
TD 10 2 3 3 2
INT 3 0 2 0 1
Ru Yards 10 5 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Mark Ingram 26 16.4 12.6 65.5 50.5 260 55 65 90 50
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 125 30 25 15 55
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 4 3 2 6
RB Tim Hightower 30 2.9 1.9 11.5 7.5 45 20 15 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 30 15 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 1 0 1
RB C.J. Spiller 29 9.8 6.5 39 26 45 15 5 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 155 35 60 20 40
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 13 3 4 3 3
WR Brandin Cooks 22 15 10 60 40 10 0 0 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 270 85 75 55 55
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 20 6 5 4 5
WR Willie Snead 23 9.1 4.6 36.5 18.5 185 55 40 55 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 5 4 5 4
WR Michael Thomas 21 10 7 40 28 160 40 25 60 35
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 12 3 2 4 3
WR Brandon Coleman 24 4 3 16 12 60 15 10 0 35
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 4 1 1 0 2
TE Coby Fleener 27 14.3 9.3 57 37 250 55 80 75 40
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 20 4 7 6 3
TE Josh Hill 26 4.3 3.5 17 14 20 5 0 10 5
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 3 1 0 1 1

The Saints have finished first or second in PPR fantasy points from the running back position in five straight years. Over that time, New Orleans' backs have recorded no fewer than 127 receptions. Thus, there really is no such thing as an unforgiving matchup, especially when there is an average of at least 7.9 catches coming out of the backfield. The 2016 season figures to be a bit of a challenge to project, however, since Hightower profiles similarly to Ingram, who has played more than 13 games only once in his five NFL seasons. Does HC Sean Payton return to the days of Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles and make this a three-headed committee in an effort to save Ingram for when it matters most, or will Payton opt to take his chances with Ingram knowing he has Hightower to carry the load if he gets hurt? I'm projecting the latter for now, although I believe all three (Ingram, Hightower and Spiller) need to be rostered in just about every league. As luck would have it, the most challenging stretch for all three from a fantasy perspective figures to be during the fantasy playoffs, although Weeks 6-11 will be no cakewalk either. Carolina (Weeks 6 and 11), Kansas City (Week 7), Seattle (Week 8) and Denver (Week 10) all ranked among the top eight rush defenses a season ago, so there's a very good chance New Orleans will need to rely rather heavily on its backs' ability to be receiving threats out of the backfield once again.

There are some years venue seems to mean more than matchup to Brees. The 2014 campaign was not one of those seasons, but 2015 was. Brees posted a 23:5 TD-to-INT ratio at home last year, as opposed to 9:6 at home. Yes, his seven-TD game at home against the woeful Giants' defense in Week 8 helped the former mark out a bit, but he was every bit as impressive against the vaunted Panthers' defense in Week 13. The home-road split dilemma figures to get a workout this year, however, as New Orleans hosts the much-improved Raiders (Week 1), Panthers (Week 6), Seahawks (Week 8) and Broncos (Week 10) - not to mention the Rams (Week 12) - this season, while getting mostly average pass defenses away from home. Brees is going to be fine for the most part, but owners may want to secure a high-end QB2 just so they aren't so tempted to roll with Brees because they subscribe to the "never sit your studs" mantra. Whereas the running game might lose some of its usefulness late in the season, the passing game should be at its best. Cooks has a potentially bad draw late: Darius Slay (Week 13) and Patrick Peterson (Week 15), who did a bang-up job on the top Saints' receiver in their head-to-head showdown last year. However, Snead and rookie Michael Thomas in particular should finish strong. Fleener will be challenged right after the bye, but I obviously like his chances to thrive on the edges of this schedule.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL ARI LA DEN CAR bye SF OAK ATL CHI KC SEA SD NO DAL NO
QB Jameis Winston 22 19.6 19.6 78.3 78.3 1145 315 280 290 260
TD 5 1 1 2 1
INT 5 0 3 0 2
Ru Yards 65 10 20 20 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
RB Doug Martin 27 14.3 12.3 57 49 300 80 55 105 60
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 70 25 10 0 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 1 0 4
RB Charles Sims 25 11.1 6.6 44.5 26.5 100 30 25 35 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 165 40 55 25 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 4 6 3 5
WR Mike Evans 23 16.8 10.3 67 41 350 85 70 145 50
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 26 6 6 10 4
WR Vincent Jackson 33 12.5 8.5 50 34 220 65 45 35 75
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 16 4 3 3 6
WR Adam Humphries 23 4.3 2.3 17 9 90 35 10 25 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 1 2 2
WR Louis Murphy 29 3.6 2.1 14.5 8.5 85 15 25 20 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 1 2 1 2
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 23 6.1 4.1 24.5 16.5 105 30 40 25 10
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 8 2 3 2 1
TE Cameron Brate 25 4.3 3 17 12 60 20 25 15 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 5 2 2 1 0

The fantasy world knows Martin enjoyed his finest season since his amazing rookie campaign back in 2012. Despite not registering a single rushing touchdown, Sims somehow finished 17th in PPR scoring a season ago - a testament to how much damage he did as a receiver and just how pathetic the running back position was as a whole in fantasy last year. While Martin's fantasy-point average was nearly six points higher in wins versus losses, there was a difference of less than a point using the same split for Sims. That doesn't capture the essence of how Sims closed the season, however, as his two highest fantasy-point totals came in the last two weeks of the season. With Winston expected to carry more of the offense this year for new HC Dirk Koetter, there is a solid chance Sims will further eat into Martin's production. Martin's saving grace could be a very favorable post-bye schedule, which features six defenses that ranked among the top eight in most fantasy points allowed to the running back position in 2015, including four in a row to end the season. The "ease" of his schedule actually pales in comparison to that of Sims, who figures to see a ton of work in any contest in which the Bucs are trailing or whenever Martin is struggling against a tough run defense. One of those occurrences could seemingly take place in almost every game during the first half of the season. There has been talk about Tampa Bay wanting to get Sims more carries this year as well. If that happens, it is not unthinkable he could return nearly as much value as Martin despite logging half as many touches and going nearly six rounds later in fantasy drafts. Considering how many owners plan to build around receivers this year, Sims might be a relatively safe RB2 option for those teams.

It's easy to look at the overall picture of Winston's season and call it a success, but was it really? Remove his five-TD game against a pitiful Philadelphia Eagles' defense in Week 11 and his TD-to-INT ratio was 17:15. His six rushing scores will almost certainly go down as his career high as well. But enough of the gloom-and-doom; Winston was pudgy (to be kind) as a rookie, Evans led the league in drops, Jackson was limited to 10 games and Seferian-Jenkins seven, yet the former Heisman Trophy winner threw for over 4,000 yards and finished among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks in most scoring systems. Koetter has promised to put more on a more svelte-looking Winston's plate this season and will likely incorporate more no-huddle, so the arrow for him is definitely pointing up if Evans and Jackson just do a little bit more in 2016. Winston's schedule is about what you would expect for most mid-tier quarterbacks until the fantasy playoffs, when he should be at his best. During that time, he'll play three games against two teams that have a long way to go from last year just to reach the level of an average pass defense. Delvin Breaux could very well be asked to shadow Evans, but that is a matchup I expect the latter to win more often than not. I expect a bit of a rebound from Jackson as well, if only because he should play more games this season. As long as the Bucs continue to use him as their main slot receiver, the 6-5 Jackson will probably be a matchup nightmare inside for most nickel corners. Even if we assume most of his snaps come on the outside, there are only four opponents that would give me pause (Arizona - Week 2, Denver - Week 4, Oakland - Week 8 and Seattle - Week 12). ASJ has been very unlucky in regards to his durability over his first two seasons, but he hasn't exactly helped himself by proving scouts right in terms of his maturity and character. Brate emerged as one of Winston's favorite guys last year, so the odds are at least one of the two is going to generate some useful fantasy numbers. Both players may struggle during the middle part of the schedule, but one or both could start and finish fast.



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.