Samuel made his way to Columbus after being recognized as a four-star
recruit and a top-10 receiver in his class. The Brooklyn native
backed up Ezekiel
Elliott during the Buckeyes' run to the national title in 2014,
finishing as the team's third leading rusher with 383 yards and
six touchdowns despite only 58 attempts. He flashed when given the
opportunity that year, however, rushing for 100 yards and two scores
in his third game and adding two more rushing touchdowns in a Big
10 Championship rout of Wisconsin. The decision was made to move
Samuel to H-back in an effort to get him away from only backing
up Elliott the following season, but the opportunities to feed him
the ball were still lacking due to the presence of skill-position
players such as Elliott, Michael
Thomas, Jalin
Marshall and Braxton
Miller. Each of the aforementioned four players fled for the
NFL at the end of the 2015 campaign, leaving Samuel in prime position
to break out as a junior. Unsurprisingly, his patience paid off
in 2016, as he was the only player in FBS to gain more than 700
yards rushing and 700 yards receiving. He finished third in the
Big Ten in all-purpose yards with 1,655 despite touching the ball
only 177 times - nearly half as many as the two players above him
on the list. His gaudy totals made him a clear choice for first-team
all-conference honors, while he was also named a first-team All-American
by the Associated Press and The Sporting News.
Best Scheme Fit: Samuel will
only be limited by the imagination of his play-caller. He is one
part deep threat, one part slot receiver, one part change-of-pace
back and one part dynamic returner. His elusiveness and speed
make him a fit in any system, so long as the offensive coordinator
doesn't mind spending a few more hours in the office drawing up
new plays for him. Note: All times listed in parentheses
in strengths/weaknesses section reflect the start time on video
- via Draft Breakdown - that displays that skill/trait.
Strengths
As versatile and complete of an all-purpose weapon as there
was in college football in 2016; lined up at running back, Wildcat
quarterback, in the slot and outside; also returned punts (2014)
and kicks (2015-16) throughout career.
Has the explosion and body control to uncover quickly in the
slot (likely his best position at this point of time); transitions
from catch to run almost immediately. (0:17,
2:11)
Can stop and restart in a heartbeat (1:00,
5:41,
5:48)
and pulls away easily from defenders once he hits his stride
(0:58,
2:31,
5:48);
seems to have an innate sense for avoiding contact in the open
field. (0:03,
1:29)
Shows flashes of being a good route-runner (0:40,
0:58,
2:50,
3:22,
3:41),
occasionally setting up vertical routes with head fakes early
and/or exaggerated jab at the top of his route.
As a runner, has a good feel for when a crease is about to
open and shows the burst to get through it in a hurry on the
rare occasion he was asked to run inside. (0:38,
1:25,
3:08,
6:23)
Possesses a better-than-expected stiff-arm for a sub-200 pound,
part-time running back. (3:34,
4:09)
Weaknesses
Multi-purpose role in college didn't allow him to master his
craft in any one particular area; offensive system didn't do
him many favors either in terms of expanding his route tree
or making him a more complete receiver.
Carried the ball more (172 attempts) than he caught it (107
receptions) in his college career; was the scheme the only reason
for that? Also, a large percentage of his touches were "manufactured"
and not "pro plays". Can he carve out a regular NFL role like
that?
While his college quarterback's accuracy was inconsistent
at best, he failed to catch too many balls that hit his hands
(2:01,
2:46,
4:44)
and let the ball get into his body too often. (3:12,
6:57)
Can be guilty of trying to do too much (1:20,
5:41)
and almost defaults to bouncing rushing attempts to the outside,
although many of said runs were designed east-west (space) runs.
Was not asked to block much and didn't do much more than stalk
his defender when he did.
Bottom Line
The terms "offensive weapon" and "moveable chess
piece" have become vogue in recent years - almost to the
point of being overused - but they are spot-on descriptions for
what Samuel is. Offensive coordinators who don't want/like to
think outside the box will likely typecast him as a change-of-pace
back or situational deep threat and not
both. That would be a mistake, and Hill's rookie year in 2016
is a perfect example of what Samuel could be - a player who sees
the ball maybe 10 times per game but instills so much
fear into the defense that he opens up the field for everyone
else. There really should be no limit to the number of different
plays he could be featured on either (reverses, speed sweeps,
go routes, tunnel/bubble screens, tosses, Wildcat packages, shovel
passes, etc. really should be the tip of the iceberg for him).
Here's the problem at the moment with Samuel: he's not stout
enough - as a runner or a blocker - to be used as a regular change-of-pace
back or developed enough as a route-runner to be considered a
surefire starting receiver as a rookie. He's more than capable
of evolving in both areas, but until that day arrives, teams may
initially have to live with him being a specialty offensive player
and returner in much the same way Hill was early on for the Kansas
City Chiefs in 2016. And that's OK, because the league is always
going to have a place for a player as unique, versatile and explosive
as Samuel. (Consider him a faster but overall less refined version
of Christian McCaffrey.)
The mere fact Samuel doesn't have a defined position is probably
enough to drop him into the second round of the NFL Draft and
it's not hard to understand why. As a player who is very much
a work in progress as a running back and receiver and made his
living on specialty plays in a non-pro style offense, he presents
a lot of risk to teams as someone who may be asked to play all
three receiver positions in addition to moonlighting as a change-of-pace
back and hasn't come close to mastering any of them. With that
said, Samuel creates big plays and that is a commodity that will
never go out of style in the NFL. His current unwillingness to
trust his hands completely make keep him from become a true No.
1 receiver, but the amount of time defensive coordinators will
spend preparing for him may force opponents to treat him like
he is one. Most teams only dream about lining up a second receiver
who can earn that kind of respect from defenses.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.