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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Red Zone Report - Receivers
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/11/17

One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunity tends to lead to more success. That logic applies just as much - if not more so - inside the 20 than it does outside of it. Since touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football and since the majority of them are scored closer to the goal line, it only makes sense to take into account what players are getting those chances and how successful they are with them.

Red zone analysis helps owners get a sense of what teams are doing in prime scoring territory, but looking at what teams do solely inside the 20 doesn't provide the total picture. And it makes sense why: just like in basketball where the field-goal percentage goes down as the shot get progressively longer, the percentage of teams scoring a touchdown on any given play go down the further away a team is from the goal line. In keeping up with the basketball metaphor, fantasy owners aren't concerned with the first few passes that led to the shot; we want successful conversions. The point to be made here is a lot more touchdowns are scored inside the 5 and inside the 10 than between the 11 and 20.

Here is a key for the abbreviations you will see below:

Tgt – Target
Rec – Reception
Catch % – Catch rate (number of receptions divided by targets)
TD – Receiving touchdown
Tgt% – Percentage of team's targets inside given range

*****All data courtesy of Pro Football Reference

**** Sorted by Targets Inside the 20 Quarterbacks | Runners | Receivers
 Red Zone Report - Receivers
   Inside 20  Inside 10
Player Pos Tm Tgt Rec Catch % TD Tgt % Tgt Rec Catch % TD Tgt %
Jordy Nelson WR GB 29 19 65.5% 11 27.6% 15 11 73.3% 9 31.9%
Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 24 14 58.3% 5 32.4% 10 6 60.0% 4 34.5%
Anquan Boldin WR DET 22 14 63.6% 6 25.9% 9 6 66.7% 4 28.1%
Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 21 9 42.9% 5 34.4% 9 4 44.4% 4 36.0%
Michael Crabtree WR OAK 21 12 57.1% 6 23.3% 8 4 50.0% 4 19.0%
Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 21 7 33.3% 4 29.6% 7 3 42.9% 2 25.9%
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 20 13 65.0% 4 24.7% 12 5 41.7% 4 31.6%
Davante Adams WR GB 20 12 60.0% 7 19.0% 10 7 70.0% 5 21.3%
Seth Roberts WR OAK 20 8 40.0% 4 22.2% 8 4 50.0% 2 19.0%
Michael Thomas WR NO 19 13 68.4% 7 17.8% 11 7 63.6% 6 21.6%
Allen Robinson WR JAC 19 9 47.4% 6 28.4% 10 4 40.0% 4 43.5%
Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 18 12 66.7% 4 28.1% 11 5 45.5% 3 31.4%
Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 18 8 44.4% 3 28.1% 11 6 54.6% 3 31.4%
Antonio Gates TE SD 18 8 44.4% 7 18.8% 7 5 71.4% 5 20.0%
Brandon LaFell WR CIN 17 7 41.2% 4 25.4% 8 6 75.0% 4 28.6%
Mike Evans WR TB 17 8 47.1% 7 25.0% 7 5 71.4% 5 29.2%
Devonta Freeman RB ATL 17 12 70.6% 2 18.1% 5 4 80.0% 1 11.1%
Golden Tate WR DET 17 9 52.9% 1 20.0% 5 3 60.0% 1 15.6%
Jimmy Graham TE SEA 17 6 35.3% 4 22.7% 2 1 50.0% 1 8.0%
Tyrell Williams WR SD 16 9 56.3% 2 16.7% 8 4 50.0% 2 22.9%
Cameron Brate TE TB 16 10 62.5% 8 23.5% 7 5 71.4% 4 29.2%
Hunter Henry TE SD 16 10 62.5% 7 16.7% 7 6 85.7% 5 20.0%
Jamison Crowder WR WAS 16 9 56.3% 3 20.0% 7 2 28.6% 1 19.4%
Travis Kelce TE KC 16 8 50.0% 3 20.3% 7 3 42.9% 1 20.6%
DeMarco Murray RB TEN 16 12 75.0% 3 22.9% 6 4 66.7% 3 23.1%
Delanie Walker TE TEN 16 8 50.0% 5 22.9% 5 3 60.0% 3 19.2%
Coby Fleener TE NO 16 9 56.3% 2 15.0% 5 2 40.0% 2 9.8%
Greg Olsen TE CAR 16 9 56.3% 2 24.2% 5 2 40.0% 1 29.4%
Jason Witten TE DAL 16 10 62.5% 2 30.2% 3 1 33.3% 1 12.0%
Julian Edelman WR NE 15 6 40.0% 2 20.8% 9 2 22.2% 1 26.5%
Quincy Enunwa WR NYJ 15 6 40.0% 1 21.1% 9 3 33.3% 1 33.3%
Doug Baldwin WR SEA 15 11 73.3% 6 20.0% 7 4 57.1% 3 28.0%
Antonio Brown WR PIT 15 9 60.0% 4 22.7% 7 3 42.9% 3 24.1%
Marvin Jones WR DET 15 6 40.0% 2 17.6% 7 2 28.6% 2 21.9%
Rishard Matthews WR TEN 15 12 80.0% 7 21.4% 6 6 100.0% 5 23.1%
Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR 15 8 53.3% 5 22.7% 5 3 60.0% 3 29.4%
Jermaine Kearse WR SEA 14 1 7.1% 1 18.7% 7 1 14.3% 1 28.0%
Theo Riddick RB DET 14 11 78.6% 5 16.5% 6 4 66.7% 3 18.8%
Zach Ertz TE PHI 14 6 42.9% 3 16.3% 5 2 40.0% 2 21.7%
Nelson Agholor WR PHI 14 5 35.7% 0 16.3% 2 1 50.0% 0 8.7%
Randall Cobb WR GB 13 9 69.2% 4 12.4% 7 6 85.7% 4 14.9%
Tyreek Hill WR KC 13 10 76.9% 3 16.5% 7 4 57.1% 3 20.6%
Amari Cooper WR OAK 13 5 38.5% 0 14.4% 7 0 0.0% 0 16.7%
Pierre Garcon WR WAS 13 5 38.5% 1 16.3% 6 1 16.7% 0 16.7%
Mohamed Sanu WR ATL 13 9 69.2% 4 13.8% 5 2 40.0% 1 11.1%
David Johnson RB ARI 13 8 61.5% 3 16.0% 5 3 60.0% 3 13.2%
T.Y. Hilton WR IND 13 8 61.5% 2 18.3% 5 3 60.0% 2 13.9%
Terrelle Pryor WR CLE 13 9 69.2% 4 22.8% 4 3 75.0% 3 22.2%
Dennis Pitta TE BAL 13 7 53.9% 2 17.8% 4 2 50.0% 1 15.4%
Chris Conley WR KC 13 3 23.1% 0 16.5% 4 1 25.0% 0 11.8%
Charles Clay TE BUF 13 7 53.9% 3 24.5% 2 1 50.0% 1 10.5%
Devin Funchess WR CAR 13 3 23.1% 3 19.7% 2 1 50.0% 1 11.8%
Darren Sproles RB PHI 13 6 46.2% 1 15.1% 2 1 50.0% 1 8.7%
Jordan Reed TE WAS 12 8 66.7% 5 15.0% 8 5 62.5% 5 22.2%
Dez Bryant WR DAL 12 6 50.0% 5 22.6% 7 2 28.6% 2 28.0%
Jesse James TE PIT 12 7 58.3% 3 18.2% 7 4 57.1% 3 24.1%
C.J. Fiedorowicz TE HOU 12 6 50.0% 3 17.9% 7 4 57.1% 2 23.3%
Sterling Shepard WR NYG 12 9 75.0% 6 19.7% 6 5 83.3% 4 24.0%
Willie Snead WR NO 12 8 66.7% 4 11.2% 6 4 66.7% 3 11.8%
Jack Doyle TE IND 12 9 75.0% 4 16.9% 5 4 80.0% 3 13.9%
Jordan Matthews WR PHI 12 5 41.7% 3 14.0% 4 1 25.0% 1 17.4%
Malcolm Mitchell WR NE 12 9 75.0% 3 16.7% 4 4 100.0% 3 11.8%
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 12 4 33.3% 2 16.4% 4 1 25.0% 1 12.9%
Cameron Meredith WR CHI 12 6 50.0% 1 16.4% 4 0 0.0% 0 12.9%
Steve Smith WR BAL 12 7 58.3% 3 16.4% 3 1 33.3% 1 11.5%
Allen Hurns WR JAC 12 5 41.7% 2 17.9% 3 2 66.7% 1 13.0%
Stefon Diggs WR MIN 12 11 91.7% 1 16.2% 3 2 66.7% 1 10.3%
Dorial Green-Beckham WR PHI 12 6 50.0% 2 14.0% 2 2 100.0% 2 8.7%
Kenny Britt WR LAR 11 6 54.6% 4 20.8% 7 4 57.1% 3 36.8%
Michael Floyd WR ARI 11 6 54.6% 4 13.6% 6 4 66.7% 4 15.8%
Brandin Cooks WR NO 11 10 90.9% 3 10.3% 6 5 83.3% 2 11.8%
Jacob Tamme TE ATL 11 7 63.6% 3 11.7% 6 4 66.7% 1 13.3%
Andrew Hawkins WR CLE 11 5 45.5% 3 19.3% 4 3 75.0% 2 22.2%
Tevin Coleman RB ATL 11 8 72.7% 2 11.7% 4 4 100.0% 2 8.9%
DeSean Jackson WR WAS 11 4 36.4% 1 13.8% 4 0 0.0% 0 11.1%
Bilal Powell RB NYJ 11 9 81.8% 1 15.5% 2 2 100.0% 1 7.4%
Justin Hardy WR ATL 10 5 50.0% 4 10.6% 9 4 44.4% 4 20.0%
Donte Moncrief WR IND 10 8 80.0% 6 14.1% 6 6 100.0% 6 16.7%
Travaris Cadet RB NO 10 6 60.0% 4 9.3% 6 3 50.0% 2 11.8%
Martellus Bennett TE NE 10 8 80.0% 5 13.9% 5 4 80.0% 4 14.7%
Adam Thielen WR MIN 10 8 80.0% 3 13.5% 5 3 60.0% 2 17.2%
Mark Ingram RB NO 10 10 100.0% 3 9.3% 5 5 100.0% 3 9.8%
Chris Hogan WR NE 10 7 70.0% 1 13.9% 5 2 40.0% 0 14.7%
J.J. Nelson WR ARI 10 7 70.0% 4 12.3% 3 3 100.0% 3 7.9%
Ty Montgomery RB GB 10 5 50.0% 0 9.5% 3 1 33.3% 0 6.4%
Adam Humphries WR TB 10 5 50.0% 1 14.7% 2 1 50.0% 1 8.3%
Tyler Eifert TE CIN 9 5 55.6% 5 13.4% 6 2 33.3% 2 21.4%
Clive Walford TE OAK 9 2 22.2% 2 10.0% 6 1 16.7% 1 14.3%
Julio Jones WR ATL 9 4 44.4% 2 9.6% 6 3 50.0% 2 13.3%
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 9 3 33.3% 1 13.4% 6 1 16.7% 1 20.0%
Dwayne Allen TE IND 9 6 66.7% 4 12.7% 5 3 60.0% 2 13.9%
Will Fuller WR HOU 9 4 44.4% 2 13.4% 5 1 20.0% 1 16.7%
A.J. Green WR CIN 9 7 77.8% 2 13.4% 4 2 50.0% 1 14.3%
Mike Wallace WR BAL 9 5 55.6% 2 12.3% 4 2 50.0% 1 15.4%
Brandon Coleman WR NO 9 8 88.9% 3 8.4% 3 3 100.0% 2 5.9%
Terrance West RB BAL 9 6 66.7% 1 12.3% 3 1 33.3% 1 11.5%
Jarvis Landry WR MIA 9 7 77.8% 2 17.6% 2 2 100.0% 1 11.1%
Tyler Boyd WR CIN 9 5 55.6% 1 13.4% 2 1 50.0% 1 7.1%
Jared Cook TE GB 9 5 55.6% 1 8.6% 2 1 50.0% 1 4.3%
Braxton Miller WR HOU 9 3 33.3% 1 13.4% 2 1 50.0% 0 6.7%
Jeremy Maclin WR KC 9 4 44.4% 2 11.4% 1 0 0.0% 0 2.9%
Tavon Austin WR LAR 9 4 44.4% 1 17.0% 1 1 100.0% 0 5.3%
Todd Gurley RB LAR 9 6 66.7% 0 17.0% 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Andre Holmes WR OAK 8 4 50.0% 3 8.9% 6 3 50.0% 3 14.3%
Zach Miller TE CHI 8 6 75.0% 4 11.0% 5 4 80.0% 3 16.1%
Cole Beasley WR DAL 8 6 75.0% 5 15.1% 4 4 100.0% 4 16.0%
Le'Veon Bell RB PIT 8 5 62.5% 2 12.1% 4 2 50.0% 2 13.8%
DeVante Parker WR MIA 8 5 62.5% 2 15.7% 4 2 50.0% 2 22.2%
Brian Quick WR LAR 8 3 37.5% 1 15.1% 4 2 50.0% 1 21.1%
Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN 8 4 50.0% 2 10.8% 3 1 33.3% 1 10.3%
Melvin Gordon RB SD 8 5 62.5% 2 8.3% 2 1 50.0% 1 5.7%
Robert Woods WR BUF 8 5 62.5% 1 15.1% 2 1 50.0% 1 10.5%
Marqise Lee WR JAC 8 5 62.5% 1 11.9% 2 2 100.0% 1 8.7%
T.J. Yeldon RB JAC 8 6 75.0% 1 11.9% 2 1 50.0% 0 8.7%
Dion Sims TE MIA 7 5 71.4% 4 13.7% 5 3 60.0% 3 27.8%
Darren Waller TE BAL 7 3 42.9% 2 9.6% 4 2 50.0% 2 15.4%
Albert Wilson WR KC 7 3 42.9% 1 8.9% 4 2 50.0% 1 11.8%
James White RB NE 7 4 57.1% 4 9.7% 3 2 66.7% 2 8.8%
Russell Shepard WR TB 7 3 42.9% 2 10.3% 3 1 33.3% 0 12.5%
Jermaine Gresham TE ARI 7 3 42.9% 1 8.6% 3 1 33.3% 1 7.9%
Will Tye TE NYG 7 4 57.1% 1 11.5% 3 1 33.3% 1 12.0%
Trey Burton TE PHI 7 4 57.1% 1 8.1% 3 2 66.7% 1 13.0%
LeSean McCoy RB BUF 7 6 85.7% 1 13.2% 3 2 66.7% 1 15.8%
Danny Amendola WR NE 7 7 100.0% 4 9.7% 2 2 100.0% 2 5.9%
Julius Thomas TE JAC 7 4 57.1% 3 10.4% 2 2 100.0% 2 8.7%
Damien Williams RB MIA 7 7 100.0% 3 13.7% 2 2 100.0% 1 11.1%
Chris Thompson RB WAS 7 5 71.4% 2 8.8% 2 2 100.0% 1 5.6%
Philly Brown WR CAR 7 2 28.6% 1 10.6% 2 0 0.0% 0 11.8%
Dontrelle Inman WR SD 7 3 42.9% 1 7.3% 2 0 0.0% 0 5.7%
Phillip Dorsett WR IND 7 4 57.1% 0 9.9% 2 0 0.0% 0 5.6%
Jordan Howard RB CHI 7 2 28.6% 0 9.6% 2 0 0.0% 0 6.5%
Travis Benjamin WR SD 7 4 57.1% 2 7.3% 1 1 100.0% 1 2.9%
Jeremy Kerley WR SF 7 3 42.9% 2 14.6% 1 1 100.0% 1 10.0%
Dexter McCluster WR SD 7 4 57.1% 0 7.3% 1 1 100.0% 0 2.9%
Deonte Thompson WR CHI 6 3 50.0% 2 8.2% 5 2 40.0% 2 16.1%
Brice Butler WR DAL 6 1 16.7% 1 11.3% 5 1 20.0% 1 20.0%
Frank Gore RB IND 6 5 83.3% 4 8.5% 4 3 75.0% 2 11.1%
Justin Hunter WR BUF 6 3 50.0% 3 11.3% 4 2 50.0% 2 21.1%
Lance Kendricks TE LAR 6 3 50.0% 2 11.3% 4 1 25.0% 0 21.1%
Ryan Griffin TE HOU 6 4 66.7% 2 9.0% 3 2 66.7% 2 10.0%
Richard Rodgers TE GB 6 3 50.0% 2 5.7% 3 1 33.3% 1 6.4%
Eli Rogers WR PIT 6 4 66.7% 2 9.1% 3 2 66.7% 2 10.3%
Charcandrick West RB KC 6 4 66.7% 2 7.6% 3 2 66.7% 2 8.8%
Jordan Taylor WR DEN 6 4 66.7% 2 9.4% 3 2 66.7% 1 8.6%
John Brown WR ARI 6 2 33.3% 1 7.4% 3 0 0.0% 0 7.9%
Eric Ebron TE DET 6 5 83.3% 1 7.1% 3 2 66.7% 1 9.4%
Vernon Davis TE WAS 6 3 50.0% 1 7.5% 3 1 33.3% 0 8.3%
Duke Johnson RB CLE 6 2 33.3% 0 10.5% 3 0 0.0% 0 16.7%
Geronimo Allison WR GB 6 2 33.3% 2 5.7% 2 1 50.0% 1 4.3%
Eddie Royal WR CHI 6 4 66.7% 2 8.2% 2 1 50.0% 1 6.5%
Victor Cruz WR NYG 6 4 66.7% 1 9.8% 2 1 50.0% 1 8.0%
Taylor Gabriel WR ATL 6 6 100.0% 1 6.4% 2 2 100.0% 1 4.4%
John Kuhn RB NO 6 5 83.3% 1 5.6% 2 2 100.0% 1 3.9%
Tim Hightower RB NO 6 3 50.0% 0 5.6% 2 0 0.0% 0 3.9%
Giovani Bernard RB CIN 6 5 83.3% 0 9.0% 2 1 50.0% 0 7.1%
Isaiah Crowell RB CLE 6 5 83.3% 0 10.5% 2 1 50.0% 0 11.1%
Kyle Juszczyk RB BAL 6 4 66.7% 0 8.2% 2 1 50.0% 0 7.7%
Carlos Hyde RB SF 6 5 83.3% 3 12.5% 1 1 100.0% 1 10.0%
Vance McDonald TE SF 6 4 66.7% 2 12.5% 1 1 100.0% 1 10.0%
Kenny Stills WR MIA 6 4 66.7% 1 11.8% 1 1 100.0% 1 5.6%
Lamar Miller RB HOU 6 5 83.3% 1 9.0% 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Devontae Booker RB DEN 6 3 50.0% 0 9.4% 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Daniel Brown TE CHI 5 3 60.0% 1 6.8% 4 2 50.0% 1 12.9%
Rob Gronkowski TE NE 5 2 40.0% 1 6.9% 4 2 50.0% 1 11.8%
Austin Hooper TE ATL 5 3 60.0% 2 5.3% 3 2 66.7% 2 6.7%
Torrey Smith WR SF 5 1 20.0% 1 10.4% 3 1 33.3% 1 30.0%
C.J. Uzomah TE CIN 5 2 40.0% 1 7.5% 3 1 33.3% 1 10.7%
Robert Turbin RB IND 5 2 40.0% 1 7.0% 3 2 66.7% 1 8.3%
Chester Rogers WR IND 5 4 80.0% 0 7.0% 3 2 66.7% 0 8.3%
Garrett Celek TE SF 5 3 60.0% 3 10.4% 2 2 100.0% 2 20.0%
Gary Barnidge TE CLE 5 3 60.0% 2 8.8% 2 1 50.0% 1 11.1%
Jalin Marshall WR NYJ 5 3 60.0% 2 7.0% 2 1 50.0% 1 7.4%
Jerick McKinnon RB MIN 5 5 100.0% 2 6.8% 2 2 100.0% 1 6.9%
Sammie Coates WR PIT 5 3 60.0% 1 7.6% 2 1 50.0% 1 6.9%
Latavius Murray RB OAK 5 3 60.0% 0 5.6% 2 1 50.0% 0 4.8%
Jalen Richard RB OAK 5 4 80.0% 2 5.6% 1 1 100.0% 1 2.4%
Brandon Myers TE TB 5 2 40.0% 1 7.4% 1 1 100.0% 1 4.2%
Jay Ajayi RB MIA 5 3 60.0% 0 9.8% 1 0 0.0% 0 5.6%
Tyler Lockett WR SEA 5 3 60.0% 0 6.7% 1 0 0.0% 0 4.0%
Kevin White WR CHI 5 1 20.0% 0 6.8% 1 0 0.0% 0 3.2%

Qualified Receiver Averages (RBs/WRs/TEs with at least five RZ targets)
Inside the 20: 57 percent catch rate
Inside the 10: 54 percent catch rate

Sort the team target percentages above. I can almost guarantee you will be surprised by some of the names near the top of the list. Allen Robinson may have been a bitter disappointment to the majority of owners who drafted him in 2016, but fans of his may be happy to learn he saw a higher percentage of his team's targets inside the 20 (28.4) and 10 (league-high 43.5) in 2016 than he did in 2015 (23.9, 34.9). Each of the marks for both seasons are extraordinarily high. Despite Allen Hurns' breakout campaign in 2015, Robinson was still easily Blake Bortles' favorite target inside the 20 and 10 then as well. With Julius Thomas no longer around, the targets he leaves behind should negate whatever loss of volume some might have expected with Leonard Fournette around.

In each of his last three healthy seasons (2013, 2014 and 2016), Jordy Nelson has seen at least 22 targets inside the red zone and 11 inside the 10. His 11 touchdowns inside the 20 and nine scores inside the 10 were each the best marks in the league by three. In each of those three seasons, his share of the team's target percentage has either stayed the same or improved (from 25.3 to 25.8 to 27.6 inside the red zone; 23.9 to 31.9 in each of the last two years inside the 10). Martellus Bennett is going to steal a few looks from everyone in this passing attack, but look for Nelson to be less affected by his arrival than Davante Adams and Randall Cobb.

Make no mistake about it: Michael Thomas and Donte Moncrief were models of efficiency last year in scoring territory. Neither player saw more than 17.8 percent of their team's targets inside the 20 or 21.6 percent of the looks inside the 10. While both were buried fairly deep in the "Tm%" column inside both ranges (Moncrief due mostly to injury), Thomas' 13 red zone catches were tied with Larry Fitzgerald for fourth in the league, while his 68.4-percent catch rate in that area was the best among the most highly targeted wide receivers inside the 20.

On the other hand, Moncrief converted all six of his opportunities inside the 10 into scores, tying Thomas for the second-most TDs (six) while only taking up 16.7 percent of the team's target percentage. Moncrief's firm grasp on Andrew Luck's attention in close figures to get tested this year if Kamar Aiken can win the No. 3 job, giving the quarterback another decent-sized option to throw to (as opposed to speedsters T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett). Thomas is bound to see his production increase due to the departure of Brandin Cooks, but Drew Brees' history with lead receivers suggests owners should exercise caution when it comes to how much those numbers will get bumped up.

One look at Rishard Matthews' line should be enough to make owners reconsider overlooking him in 2017. No receiver with at least 15 red zone targets caught a higher percentage than Matthews (80), while only Stefon Diggs (91.7) and Brandin Cooks (90.9) outclassed him among receivers with more than 10 targets. He was one of the few to haul in every one of his targets inside the 10, turning five of those six opportunities into scores as well. Matthews may lose volume to Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis, but count on him staying heavily involved. Perhaps after lining up in "11" personnel (one back, one tight end and three receivers) a league-low 42 percent of the time last season, the Titans decide to push that mark closer to the league average from a year ago (60 percent).

Speaking of Diggs and Cooks, they were remarkably similar inside the 20 and 10, as both receivers caught all but one of the passes thrown in their direction at both levels. Diggs (11-of-12) was actually targeted one more time than Cooks (10-of-11) inside the red zone, but Cooks doubled up Diggs inside the 10. While it didn't help Diggs' cause that Sam Bradford essentially needed to get the ball out of his hands within two seconds on virtually every pass play last year, the inside-the-10 gap between the two players speaks more to the difference in quarterback play and Drew Brees' ability to move from one read to the next almost seamlessly.

While Diggs is probably due to take another statistical jump this year if he can play more than 13 games for the first time in his career, he figures to continue to take a back seat to Kyle Rudolph (if not also Adam Thielen and maybe even Laquon Treadwell) at the very least in the red zone again in 2017. While it is unlikely Cooks will see much more of the team's target share inside the 20 (10.3 percent) and 10 (11.8) in New England than he did last year, Cooks may only need yet another injury to Rob Gronkowski in order to become a primary option in the red zone. He's a strong candidate to reach the 10-TD plateau for the first time in his career.

Demaryius Thomas has been among the league leaders in red zone targets for years. Outside of four fewer catches inside the 20, however, Emmanuel Sanders was essentially his equal almost across the board. Perhaps that fact shouldn't be terribly surprising since the duo was separated by only seven targets (144-137) for the year and Thomas battled through a hip injury for at least half of the season. Still, Thomas out-targeted Sanders inside the 20 (19-8) and 10 (8-2) by substantial margins in Peyton Manning's final season in 2015. Although a full offseason from A.J. Derby - as well as the additions of rookies Carlos Henderson and Jake Butt - should eventually reduce Denver's dependence on Thomas and Sanders to carry the passing game, it wouldn't be surprising if the status quo - Thomas and Sanders hogging red zone looks - remained intact for one more season.

While Kyle Rudolph did not lap the field at his position in terms of terms of scoring touchdowns inside the 20 (five) and 10 (four), he was much busier inside both ranges than any other tight end (24, 10). In fact, his 24 targets inside the 20 ranked second in the NFL behind Nelson and were the most by a tight end since Jimmy Graham in 2013. To put Rudolph's numbers inside the 20 and 10 into perspective, he saw more targets than Odell Beckham Jr. from both distances (24-21 and 10-9), caught more such passes than OBJ (14-9 and 6-4) and matched him at both levels in touchdowns. OBJ saw a slightly higher percentage of his team's targets inside the 20 (34.4-32.4) and 10 (36-34.5). The major difference in their lines? Beckham turned all four of his catches inside the 10 into touchdowns. Nevertheless, Rudolph needs to be taken more seriously by owners after back-to-back years of seeing more than a third of his team's targets inside the 10.

Three receivers/tight ends earned at least a 30-percent share of their team's red zone targets and we just finished talking about two of them (OBJ and Rudolph), each of whom also saw more than a third of their team's targets inside the 10 as well. The one exception? Jason Witten (30.2). The ageless wonder was targeted a team-high 16 times in the red zone but was mostly invisible to Dak Prescott inside the 10, however, ranking fourth on his own team with a measly three opportunities and a 12-percent target percentage. With Ryan Switzer complementing Cole Beasley as an underneath receiver with the ability to uncover quickly and Dez Bryant a dominant high-point receiver when healthy, Witten will almost certainly fall further down the TE2 ranks.

Philip Rivers has long been accused of having too many children (he has eight), wearing bolo ties and loving tight ends. Perhaps in part due to the early loss of Keenan Allen and the fact he has two stud tight ends (one a surefire Hall-of-Famer and the other a prospect the team can't say enough good things about), Rivers made Antonio Gates (18) and Hunter Henry (16) the second- and fourth-most targeted players at their position inside the red zone a season ago. (Both were tied for third with a handful of other tight ends inside the 10 last year with seven targets.) While San Diego has quickly emerged as an offense on the verge of having too many mouths to feed, don't expect the emphasis on keeping Gates and Henry involved near the goal line to change in 2017.

Next | Quarterbacks | Runners



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.