One of fantasy football's great traditions is the regular asking
of the following question: "Is (insert name here) even playing?"
Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, most of the players
at the top of the tables in this article are not likely to have
that question asked about them very often. But most successful
fantasy football owners aren't overly concerned about whether
the stars are playing (that should be a given), but rather what
players are on the rise and which ones aren't. Similarly, is a
certain player's recent production a bit of a fluke or possibly
sustainable?
One of the easiest ways to answer these questions and increase
our "hit rate" is by tracking the percentage of the
snaps they are playing and whether those percentages will allow
for sustainable production. It also is beneficial to identify
players who have seen their playing time increase dramatically
over the last month or so. It is that last group of players I
want to focus on this week at each position.
***Cutoff to qualify for the list was 50 percent of team's
snaps for the season. Notable exceptions such as Doug Baldwin
and Alshon Jeffery were included for obvious reasons. Players
who qualified for this list but have not made much of a fantasy
impact - Allen Hurns and Jarius Wright, for example - were not
included to keep the list as relevant as possible.
My real motivation for focusing on snap percentages this week
was to highlight receivers and tight ends. Outside of routes run
(which is not a league-recognized statistic), snap percentages
may be one of the easiest ways to identify who may be on the verge
of a breakout or decline. In my humble opinion, snap percentage
means a bit more these days for pass-catchers than it does for
ball-carriers.
It's no surprise receivers like Marquise Goodwin (fully healthy),
Tre'Quan Smith (filling in for Ted Ginn), Doug Baldwin (healthy-ish)
and Michael Gallup (what took so long?) were among the biggest
risers in playing time over the second quarter of the season.
However, there are others that are most likely flying under the
radar in most leagues that need to be addressed.
As stated earlier, I'm not going to try to predict what is going
on in McCarthy's head right now. Be that as it may, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
played 31 snaps to Geronimo Allison's 30 and Randall Cobb's 24
in Week 8. Was this Green Bay's way of easing the veterans back
in following their return from hamstring injuries? Possibly. Had
the opponent not been the undefeated Rams, maybe I could buy that
rationale. Valdes-Scantling has simply been too productive to
dismiss, and as I suggested last week, there probably needs to
be a change made on the depth chart, especially since the rookie
has proven he can play the slot. Without admitting it publicly,
McCarthy may have shown his hand and started the ball rolling
in that regard.
Whether we like it or not, Tajae Sharpe has seen more playing
time than Taywan Taylor in three straight weeks. Does that mean
anything to fantasy owners, especially considering the state of
the Tennessee offense? That seems doubtful at the moment, but
I don't have to think too hard to remember a time where many believed
Sharpe was a potential star in the making. If the Titans were
able to make ANY kind of improvement offensively during their
bye, Sharpe could be used in a pinch down the stretch.
David Moore hasn't only been a little lucky with his four touchdown
catches in the last three weeks, he's done so despite running
no more than 15 routes in any game over that time. Week 8 marked
only the second time this season in which he saw more than 52
percent of the team's snaps.
D.J. Moore played a season-high 71 percent of the snaps in Week
8 with Torrey Smith (knee) sidelined and unsurprisingly delivered
the kind of game (129 total yards) one might expect from the first
receiver taken in this spring's draft. Smith is off to a bad start
in terms of being ready for Week 9, so Moore could be ready to
make a huge splash (and possibly steal a starting job) if Smith
sits again versus the hapless Tampa Bay secondary.
Given all the injuries to Miami's receiving corps, it's a good
bet Danny Amendola has a fantasy home in most leagues. What is
a bit more surprising is how often he's been on the field of late.
After topping out at 73 percent of the snaps through the first
three weeks and moving up to the mid-80s over the next two, the
slot specialist has seen no fewer than 96 percent of his team's
offensive snaps in three straight contests. Over that span, he
ran at least 35 routes each time, which is partly a function of
playing in overtime once and taking part in two games in which
his team trailed by multiple scores in the second half. It is
also a product of the team's injuries at his position and the
coaching staff's desire to not have Brock Osweiler do much more
than throw short passes.
Keelan Cole played only 23 percent of the snaps in Week 8 after
logging at least 75 percent in each of Jacksonville's first seven
games. That decline dovetailed with a huge increase of playing
time last week for rookie D.J. Chark, who has seen a 27-44-75
progression over the last three weeks. The great unknown is how
much different this offense will operate once Fournette returns,
but it's safe to say Cole may not be worth holding, even in deeper
leagues.
Making the always smooth segue from the risers to the fallers,
Demaryius Thomas watched his playing time drop about 10 percent
from the high 70s and low 80s in the first quarter of the season
to the high 60s and low 70s across his final four weeks in Denver.
Will Fuller was regularly seeing at least 80 percent of the snaps
prior to his ACL injury, so it seems reasonable Thomas will probably
see his usage return to first-quarter levels once he's had a full
week of practice with his new team. As for hot-shot rookie Courtland Sutton, he will probably return to his first-quarter levels as
well. Somewhat surprisingly, he played at least 70 percent of
the offensive plays in four straight weeks after Week 1 before
falling off. The obvious change for him going forward will be
how much of Thomas' target share he will see. Thomas had seven
or fewer in his final six games as a Bronco. It seems unlikely
Sutton will absorb Thomas' looks and keep most of his own, so
it is certainly possible Emmanuel Sanders could be due for a nice
bump in targets.
Taylor Gabriel began the season with his two highest snap percentages
(86 and 95), but he has not topped 80 since. While the 66-79 range
he has operated in over the five games is nothing to scoff at,
he may not be the 1B to Allen Robinson's 1A that some were hoping
after consecutive 100-yard games in Weeks 4 and 6. On the plus
side, his 103 routes run lead the team since the Week 5 bye. Anthony Miller isn't too far off the pace with 94 routes run over the
same time, but his ability to find the end zone despite limited
opportunities is the only thing keeping him in the fantasy conversation.
He has yet to top 37 receiving yards despite seeing seven targets
in each of the last two weeks (to go along with snap percentages
of 63 and 73), so he's due to nosedive quickly if his catch rate
doesn't improve.
The Kenny Golladay train has slowed to a halt in recent weeks.
While his 100 percent catch rate can't be a bad thing, he has
seen a mere three targets over the last two games. A player who
saw at least 88 percent of the snaps through the first four weeks,
Golladay dipped below 80 in each of his previous two games before
exceeding 90 while catching one pass for 12 yards against Seattle.
His recent production feels like an anomaly if only because his
routes run are very much in line with those of Golden Tate and
Marvin Jones). His "slump" figures to be an anomaly
moving forward considering the Lions must find a home for the
10 targets per game Tate leaves behind following this week's trade
to Philadelphia.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.