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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Put Me In, Coach: WRs
All Out Blitz: Volume 143
11/1/18
RBs | WRs | TEs

One of fantasy football's great traditions is the regular asking of the following question: "Is (insert name here) even playing?"

Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, most of the players at the top of the tables in this article are not likely to have that question asked about them very often. But most successful fantasy football owners aren't overly concerned about whether the stars are playing (that should be a given), but rather what players are on the rise and which ones aren't. Similarly, is a certain player's recent production a bit of a fluke or possibly sustainable?

One of the easiest ways to answer these questions and increase our "hit rate" is by tracking the percentage of the snaps they are playing and whether those percentages will allow for sustainable production. It also is beneficial to identify players who have seen their playing time increase dramatically over the last month or so. It is that last group of players I want to focus on this week at each position.

 Wide Receiver Snap Percentages by Week
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 98% 58% 96% 87% 82% 84% 97% 100%
Chad Williams ARI 94% 76% 86% 85% 80% 67% 68% 71%
Christian Kirk ARI 85% 69% 74% 67% 63% 79% 79% 76%
Julio Jones ATL 81% 76% 79% 77% 74% 76% 75%
Mohamed Sanu ATL 80% 76% 87% 79% 82% 49%
Calvin Ridley ATL 66% 56% 62% 54% 65% 10%
Michael Crabtree BAL 66% 86% 72% 64% 83% 53% 71% 66%
John Brown BAL 60% 79% 76% 58% 68% 55% 74% 68%
Willie Snead BAL 52% 67% 56% 52% 77% 72% 65% 76%
Zay Jones BUF 94% 82% 63% 91% 77% 94% 91% 94%
Kelvin Benjamin BUF 73% 65% 61% 60% 65% 71% 79% 77%
Devin Funchess CAR 85% 99% 78% 72% 97% 92% 74%
D.J. Moore CAR 25% 25% 49% 41% 45% 46% 71%
Allen Robinson CHI 96% 95% 93% 87% 84% 73%
Taylor Gabriel CHI 86% 95% 74% 79% 66% 78% 67%
Anthony Miller CHI 56% 56% 49% 59% 63% 73%
A.J. Green CIN 95% 91% 51% 97% 85% 93% 81% 94%
Tyler Boyd CIN 87% 76% 78% 85% 75% 93% 98% 92%
Jarvis Landry CLE 91% 95% 86% 89% 100% 99% 99% 81%
Antonio Callaway CLE 17% 81% 90% 70% 69% 97% 75% 92%
Cole Beasley DAL 67% 57% 70% 55% 60% 58% 80%
Michael Gallup DAL 45% 47% 41% 58% 39% 81% 85%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 86% 82% 88% 90% 95% 85% 73% 81%
Demaryius Thomas DEN 72% 89% 79% 85% 61% 73% 69% 71%
Courtland Sutton DEN 59% 82% 78% 70% 77% 53% 68% 67%
Marvin Jones DET 89% 100% 91% 93% 94% 88% 97%
Kenny Golladay DET 93% 92% 88% 98% 79% 77% 92%
Golden Tate DET 81% 84% 74% 78% 77% 72% 92%
Davante Adams GB 98% 97% 99% 100% 88% 89% 77%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 3% 8% 17% 71% 95% 93% 60%
Geronimo Allison GB 70% 79% 75% 74% 58%
Randall Cobb GB 87% 92% 94% 46%
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97%
Keke Coutee HOU 93% 71% 74% 25%
Ryan Grant IND 79% 70% 85% 79% 82% 58%
Chester Rogers IND 57% 43% 68% 80% 77% 67% 55% 50%
T.Y. Hilton IND 98% 90% 100% 48% 53% 82%
Keelan Cole JAX 75% 83% 93% 78% 89% 94% 76% 23%
Donte Moncrief JAX 68% 72% 84% 78% 82% 79% 81% 88%
Dede Westbrook JAX 49% 72% 68% 74% 73% 92% 74% 91%
D.J. Chark JAX 21% 42% 19% 38% 30% 27% 44% 75%
Tyreek Hill KC 71% 88% 91% 90% 91% 98% 74% 83%
Sammy Watkins KC 91% 83% 89% 15% 86% 100% 86% 95%
Chris Conley KC 62% 62% 64% 94% 61% 70% 66% 52%
Keenan Allen LAC 88% 89% 77% 84% 77% 65% 91%
Tyrell Williams LAC 76% 81% 73% 81% 72% 82% 82%
Mike Williams LAC 54% 68% 67% 68% 70% 63% 68%
Robert Woods LAR 97% 97% 96% 100% 100% 97% 82% 97%
Brandin Cooks LAR 97% 100% 96% 95% 42% 92% 82% 96%
Cooper Kupp LAR 97% 100% 97% 96% 55% 38%
Kenny Stills MIA 95% 93% 91% 78% 94% 86% 88%
Danny Amendola MIA 73% 73% 70% 86% 83% 96% 98% 98%
Adam Thielen MIN 96% 96% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 95%
Stefon Diggs MIN 86% 85% 86% 84% 85% 89% 91% 88%
Julian Edelman NE 70% 91% 98% 96%
Josh Gordon NE 78% 22% 26% 81% 95% 84%
Chris Hogan NE 91% 90% 100% 86% 91% 60% 66% 59%
Michael Thomas NO 95% 88% 95% 94% 77% 93% 96%
Tre'Quan Smith NO 19% 33% 33% 37% 67% 73% 77%
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 96% 97% 95% 95% 93% 97% 95% 96%
Sterling Shepard NYG 86% 96% 95% 95% 100% 97% 91% 96%
Robby Anderson NYJ 58% 82% 67% 75% 52% 75% 87%
Jermaine Kearse NYJ 31% 54% 85% 63% 83% 90% 96%
Quincy Enunwa NYJ 67% 80% 84% 95% 77% 21%
Jordy Nelson OAK 97% 85% 72% 87% 90% 93% 90%
Amari Cooper OAK 93% 83% 79% 87% 96% 20%
Nelson Agholor PHI 94% 91% 98% 92% 88% 90% 88% 92%
Alshon Jeffery PHI 83% 92% 83% 96% 87%
Antonio Brown PIT 99% 94% 94% 95% 93% 86% 99%
JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 75% 93% 83% 95% 82% 68% 79%
Tyler Lockett SEA 98% 91% 88% 94% 87% 78% 70%
David Moore SEA 28% 30% 35% 65% 52% 47% 71%
Doug Baldwin SEA 19% 76% 88% 75% 86%
Pierre Garcon SF 80% 75% 76% 80% 63% 79% 55%
Marquise Goodwin SF 26% 62% 62% 95% 95% 92%
Mike Evans TB 76% 81% 80% 90% 86% 86% 80%
Adam Humphries TB 67% 50% 72% 78% 77% 60% 70%
Chris Godwin TB 70% 50% 50% 49% 56% 69% 72%
DeSean Jackson TB 30% 59% 58% 62% 52% 45% 52%
Corey Davis TEN 91% 81% 84% 85% 91% 86% 86%
Tajae Sharpe TEN 84% 47% 39% 44% 61% 80% 79%
Taywan Taylor TEN 13% 41% 52% 63% 46% 75% 69%
Paul Richardson WAS 77% 92% 74% 69% 74% 68%
Jamison Crowder WAS 62% 93% 61% 85%

***Cutoff to qualify for the list was 50 percent of team's snaps for the season. Notable exceptions such as Doug Baldwin and Alshon Jeffery were included for obvious reasons. Players who qualified for this list but have not made much of a fantasy impact - Allen Hurns and Jarius Wright, for example - were not included to keep the list as relevant as possible.

My real motivation for focusing on snap percentages this week was to highlight receivers and tight ends. Outside of routes run (which is not a league-recognized statistic), snap percentages may be one of the easiest ways to identify who may be on the verge of a breakout or decline. In my humble opinion, snap percentage means a bit more these days for pass-catchers than it does for ball-carriers.

It's no surprise receivers like Marquise Goodwin (fully healthy), Tre'Quan Smith (filling in for Ted Ginn), Doug Baldwin (healthy-ish) and Michael Gallup (what took so long?) were among the biggest risers in playing time over the second quarter of the season. However, there are others that are most likely flying under the radar in most leagues that need to be addressed.

As stated earlier, I'm not going to try to predict what is going on in McCarthy's head right now. Be that as it may, Marquez Valdes-Scantling played 31 snaps to Geronimo Allison's 30 and Randall Cobb's 24 in Week 8. Was this Green Bay's way of easing the veterans back in following their return from hamstring injuries? Possibly. Had the opponent not been the undefeated Rams, maybe I could buy that rationale. Valdes-Scantling has simply been too productive to dismiss, and as I suggested last week, there probably needs to be a change made on the depth chart, especially since the rookie has proven he can play the slot. Without admitting it publicly, McCarthy may have shown his hand and started the ball rolling in that regard.

Whether we like it or not, Tajae Sharpe has seen more playing time than Taywan Taylor in three straight weeks. Does that mean anything to fantasy owners, especially considering the state of the Tennessee offense? That seems doubtful at the moment, but I don't have to think too hard to remember a time where many believed Sharpe was a potential star in the making. If the Titans were able to make ANY kind of improvement offensively during their bye, Sharpe could be used in a pinch down the stretch.

David Moore hasn't only been a little lucky with his four touchdown catches in the last three weeks, he's done so despite running no more than 15 routes in any game over that time. Week 8 marked only the second time this season in which he saw more than 52 percent of the team's snaps.

D.J. Moore played a season-high 71 percent of the snaps in Week 8 with Torrey Smith (knee) sidelined and unsurprisingly delivered the kind of game (129 total yards) one might expect from the first receiver taken in this spring's draft. Smith is off to a bad start in terms of being ready for Week 9, so Moore could be ready to make a huge splash (and possibly steal a starting job) if Smith sits again versus the hapless Tampa Bay secondary.

Given all the injuries to Miami's receiving corps, it's a good bet Danny Amendola has a fantasy home in most leagues. What is a bit more surprising is how often he's been on the field of late. After topping out at 73 percent of the snaps through the first three weeks and moving up to the mid-80s over the next two, the slot specialist has seen no fewer than 96 percent of his team's offensive snaps in three straight contests. Over that span, he ran at least 35 routes each time, which is partly a function of playing in overtime once and taking part in two games in which his team trailed by multiple scores in the second half. It is also a product of the team's injuries at his position and the coaching staff's desire to not have Brock Osweiler do much more than throw short passes.

Keelan Cole played only 23 percent of the snaps in Week 8 after logging at least 75 percent in each of Jacksonville's first seven games. That decline dovetailed with a huge increase of playing time last week for rookie D.J. Chark, who has seen a 27-44-75 progression over the last three weeks. The great unknown is how much different this offense will operate once Fournette returns, but it's safe to say Cole may not be worth holding, even in deeper leagues.

Making the always smooth segue from the risers to the fallers, Demaryius Thomas watched his playing time drop about 10 percent from the high 70s and low 80s in the first quarter of the season to the high 60s and low 70s across his final four weeks in Denver. Will Fuller was regularly seeing at least 80 percent of the snaps prior to his ACL injury, so it seems reasonable Thomas will probably see his usage return to first-quarter levels once he's had a full week of practice with his new team. As for hot-shot rookie Courtland Sutton, he will probably return to his first-quarter levels as well. Somewhat surprisingly, he played at least 70 percent of the offensive plays in four straight weeks after Week 1 before falling off. The obvious change for him going forward will be how much of Thomas' target share he will see. Thomas had seven or fewer in his final six games as a Bronco. It seems unlikely Sutton will absorb Thomas' looks and keep most of his own, so it is certainly possible Emmanuel Sanders could be due for a nice bump in targets.

Taylor Gabriel began the season with his two highest snap percentages (86 and 95), but he has not topped 80 since. While the 66-79 range he has operated in over the five games is nothing to scoff at, he may not be the 1B to Allen Robinson's 1A that some were hoping after consecutive 100-yard games in Weeks 4 and 6. On the plus side, his 103 routes run lead the team since the Week 5 bye. Anthony Miller isn't too far off the pace with 94 routes run over the same time, but his ability to find the end zone despite limited opportunities is the only thing keeping him in the fantasy conversation. He has yet to top 37 receiving yards despite seeing seven targets in each of the last two weeks (to go along with snap percentages of 63 and 73), so he's due to nosedive quickly if his catch rate doesn't improve.

The Kenny Golladay train has slowed to a halt in recent weeks. While his 100 percent catch rate can't be a bad thing, he has seen a mere three targets over the last two games. A player who saw at least 88 percent of the snaps through the first four weeks, Golladay dipped below 80 in each of his previous two games before exceeding 90 while catching one pass for 12 yards against Seattle. His recent production feels like an anomaly if only because his routes run are very much in line with those of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones). His "slump" figures to be an anomaly moving forward considering the Lions must find a home for the 10 targets per game Tate leaves behind following this week's trade to Philadelphia.


Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.