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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 1.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/12/18

PPR | Half-Pt PPR | Non-PPR

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze well because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to create chaos. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, a player always needs help from at least one teammate to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what it makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to account for quantifiably.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last 1 1/2 weeks, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500 players and assigned between five and seven grades for each player based on the areas I believe are critical for fantasy success at their respective positions. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". Grading each of those players in at least five categories pushes the decision-making number well over 10,000.

The preceding paragraph is not meant to be a brag of any kind. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help owners/analyst set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not. I'm pretty certain I owe a great deal of my success to it. Based on the feedback I receive from readers throughout the year, it would seem many of them have enjoyed similar success. At any rate …

I am still fine-tuning my updated Success Score Index (SSI), which involves meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at that position. Having enjoyed the success I did with it last year and not needing to reinvent the wheel this year, I feel comfortable enough using it to rank the players on the first set of Big Boards (unlike last year). It is the number that allows me to compare apples to oranges across the positions.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: This week, I will release my first Big Boards for The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the final set of Big Boards over the following two weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB Todd Gurley LAR 24 1181.5
2 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 23 1160.8
3 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 23 1157.5
4 RB Melvin Gordon LAC 25 1131.5
5 RB David Johnson ARI 26 1127.0
6 RB Saquon Barkley NYG 21 1120.5
7 WR Antonio Brown PIT 30 1107.1
8 RB Kareem Hunt KC 23 1103.5
9 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25 1097.3
10 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 23 1089.3
11 RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 26 1084.8
12 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26 1082.5
13 WR Michael Thomas NO 25 1022.8
14 WR Julio Jones ATL 29 1018.7
15 WR A.J. Green CIN 30 1013.6
16 WR Davante Adams GB 25 1011.9
17 RB Joe Mixon CIN 22 1004.8
18 RB Jordan Howard CHI 23 1002.8
19 WR Mike Evans TB 24 1001.4
20 WR Keenan Allen LAC 26 1001.3
21 RB Alvin Kamara NO 23 993.0
22 RB Alex Collins BAL 23 988.5
23 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 26 984.8
24 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 22 975.8
25 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34 973.3
26 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 28 964.3
27 RB Jerick McKinnon SF 26 960.8
28 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 30 958.8
29 TE Travis Kelce KC 28 950.7
30 RB Derrick Henry TEN 24 950.0
31 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 29 948.1
32 WR Stefon Diggs MIN 24 943.1
33 WR Adam Thielen MIN 27 933.7
34 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 30 930.3
35 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 29 928.1
36 WR Allen Robinson CHI 24 917.6
37 WR Amari Cooper OAK 24 913.2
38 RB Isaiah Crowell NYJ 25 904.3
39 RB Jay Ajayi PHI 25 895.5
40 WR Jarvis Landry CLE 25 894.0
41 TE Zach Ertz PHI 27 881.9
42 RB Lamar Miller HOU 27 876.0
43 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 31 869.1
44 RB Kenyan Drake MIA 24 866.8
45 WR Tyreek Hill KC 24 866.2
46 WR Sammy Watkins KC 25 863.2
47 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 34 861.9
48 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21 855.0
49 RB Dion Lewis TEN 27 853.8
50 WR Marvin Jones DET 28 851.2
51 WR Golden Tate DET 30 850.6
52 WR Alshon Jeffery PHI 28 843.7
53 RB Rex Burkhead NE 28 840.8
54 TE Delanie Walker TEN 33 840.5
55 RB Ronald Jones TB 21 838.5
56 TE Jimmy Graham GB 31 838.4
57 WR Michael Crabtree BAL 30 837.9
58 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 25 834.0
59 WR Jamison Crowder WAS 25 831.2
60 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 28 830.6
61 WR Chris Hogan NE 29 830.4
62 RB Mark Ingram NO 28 827.5
63 WR Robby Anderson NYJ 25 826.7
64 WR Corey Davis TEN 23 826.6
65 QB Carson Wentz PHI 25 823.1
66 QB Deshaun Watson HOU 22 819.6
67 RB Sony Michel NE 23 818.5
68 QB Tom Brady NE 41 815.9
69 RB Marshawn Lynch OAK 32 815.8
70 TE Greg Olsen CAR 33 814.1
71 QB Drew Brees NO 39 812.1
72 WR Julian Edelman NE 32 811.9
73 RB Chris Carson SEA 23 809.3
74 RB Tarik Cohen CHI 23 808.3
75 WR DeVante Parker MIA 25 807.4
76 QB Kirk Cousins MIN 29 806.0
77 RB Royce Freeman DEN 22 803.0
78 WR Josh Gordon CLE 27 802.7
79 RB Kerryon Johnson DET 21 800.0
80 QB Cam Newton CAR 29 799.1
81 WR Brandin Cooks LAR 24 797.1
82 WR Cooper Kupp LAR 25 795.8
83 TE Trey Burton CHI 26 795.7
84 WR Robert Woods LAR 26 794.0
85 TE Evan Engram NYG 23 794.0
86 RB Chris Thompson WAS 27 788.5
87 WR Kenny Stills MIA 26 787.7
88 QB Russell Wilson SEA 29 786.8
89 TE Jack Doyle IND 28 786.5
90 QB Andrew Luck IND 28 785.9
91 RB Marlon Mack IND 22 785.8
92 RB Nick Chubb CLE 22 784.0
93 RB Matt Breida SF 23 783.3
94 RB Ty Montgomery GB 25 781.3
95 WR Jordy Nelson OAK 33 779.6
96 QB Philip Rivers LAC 36 778.4
97 WR Marquise Goodwin SF 27 775.5
98 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 25 774.0
99 TE Mike Gesicki MIA 22 772.1
100 RB Carlos Hyde CLE 27 771.0
101 QB Marcus Mariota TEN 24 770.7
102 WR Devin Funchess CAR 24 769.6
103 TE Jordan Reed WAS 28 768.0
104 RB Duke Johnson CLE 24 768.0
105 QB Matthew Stafford DET 30 767.2
106 QB Patrick Mahomes KC 22 764.7
107 RB Rashaad Penny SEA 22 764.5
108 WR Will Fuller HOU 24 763.5
109 WR Cameron Meredith NO 25 761.4
110 QB Jared Goff LAR 23 760.2
111 TE George Kittle SF 24 756.8
112 RB Devontae Booker DEN 26 756.8
113 WR Nelson Agholor PHI 25 756.7
114 TE O.J. Howard TB 23 756.5
115 TE Ricky Seals-Jones ARI 23 754.3
116 TE David Njoku CLE 22 752.0
117 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36 750.9
118 RB Aaron Jones GB 23 750.8
119 RB Peyton Barber TB 24 741.0
120 RB Frank Gore MIA 35 740.0
121 WR Rishard Matthews TEN 28 739.3
122 QB Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26 736.0
123 QB Matt Ryan ATL 33 734.1
124 RB Jamaal Williams GB 23 733.5
125 QB Blake Bortles JAC 26 732.9
126 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAC 25 729.6
127 WR Randall Cobb GB 27 729.2
128 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 27 726.6
129 TE Cameron Brate TB 27 726.6
130 WR Kelvin Benjamin BUF 27 722.9
131 WR Pierre Garcon SF 32 722.5
132 RB Doug Martin OAK 29 720.3
133 WR Chris Godwin TB 22 718.5
134 QB Dak Prescott DAL 25 718.5
135 WR Josh Doctson WAS 25 717.7
136 QB Andy Dalton CIN 30 717.2
137 WR Mike Williams LAC 23 716.5
138 QB Alex Smith WAS 34 716.1
139 WR Kenny Golladay DET 28 714.4
140 WR D.J. Moore CAR 21 712.9
141 TE Eric Ebron IND 25 711.0
142 RB Nyheim Hines IND 21 710.8
143 QB Eli Manning NYG 37 708.9
144 WR Tyrell Williams LAC 26 706.9
145 QB Jameis Winston TB 24 706.7
146 WR Tyler Lockett SEA 25 705.6
147 RB Bilal Powell NYJ 29 705.3
148 WR Anthony Miller CHI 23 702.5
149 QB Derek Carr OAK 27 702.3
150 RB C.J. Anderson CAR 27 697.0


PPR Big Board | Half-Pt PPR Big Board





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.