Best Scheme Fit: Traditional
pro-style offense that relies on play-action, perhaps one that
incorporates some RPO (run-pass option) concepts to take advantage
of his running ability.
Best Team Fit(s): Broncos, Patriots, Raiders,
Vikings, Commanders, Giants
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Took a major step forward in virtually every facet of his
game as the 2023 season concluded.
Adept at picking apart a defense from the pocket when he
knows he is protected.
More than enough arm strength to throw a dart from the opposite
hash.
His resume features some highly impressive tight window throws.
Very good runner who is more than capable of breaking loose
for 20 to 30 yards if he breaks contain.
Plenty of experience playing from under center and in an
offense that emphasized NFL concepts.
Negatives
Highly inconsistent ball placement, especially on out routes;
gives defenders a chance to play the ball too often.
Arm strength does not show up often enough on deep balls.
Willing to go through his progressions but can be a bit slow
to come off his primary read.
Too many instances where he throws blindly when under pressure.
Gives up too much ground under pressure because he relies
too much on his athleticism bailing him out of trouble.
Fared well on the rare occasion he needed to rally his team,
but he was rarely asked (or trusted?) to carry the offense.
Bottom Line
In much the same way C.J. Stroud finished his college career
with a bang, McCarthy played arguably the best ball of his college
career against Ohio State, Alabama and Washington en route to
a national championship. In Stroud's case, his last college game
proved to be a sign of things to come in the NFL. Interested teams
will hope a similar fate awaits McCarthy, who did not begin looking
like a first-round prospect consistently until the last four games
of his final year. Perhaps the best traits he displayed throughout
the entirety of his career were scrappiness and heart - not unlike
the best qualities his former head coach at Michigan (Jim Harbaugh)
had during his playing days. Over the last month or so, he just
played with more conviction - almost as if the Ohio State game
gave him the jolt of confidence he needed to be what the Wolverines
thought when they recruited him as a five-star prospect out of
IMG Academy (Fla.).
McCarthy's production paints a much different picture of him
than his tape. It seems almost laughable he completed 72.3 percent
of his passes in 2023 because pinpoint accuracy is not one of
his stronger suits. He was very lucky to finish his college career
with only 11 interceptions because he put the ball in harm's way
much more often than that. (To that end, Pro Football Focus credited
him with making a "turnover-worthy play" - a pass that
has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a play where
the quarterback did a poor job of taking care of the ball and
fumbling - on three percent of his plays in college. That number
is on the high end, especially for someone with a career aDOT
of 10.1, which is a low number in the college game now.) His 632
career rushing yards do not come close to telling the full story
of how good he is as a runner because of how often he lost chunks
of yards while giving ground on broken pass plays.
Another concern that evaluators need to consider: if Harbaugh
has not been able to groom McCarthy to be a master of the "little
things" at the position after three seasons together, who
is to say a NFL position coach or offensive coordinator will?
McCarthy has the arm talent and athleticism to succeed in the
pros, so he has a chance. Time is also on his side, as he will
not turn 22 until the start of the NFL postseason. Evaluators
can tell themselves that he started to show signs of "getting
it" at the end of his college career as well. The comp to
a young Wentz is actually a compliment, as some will remember
he was a favorite to win a league MVP at one point. It is also
an apt comparison now because both quarterbacks believe they have
the arm strength to fit throws into places that will drive most
coaches crazy. McCarthy may have proved over the final month of
his college career that he is ready to be a pro, but he has a
lot more tape that suggests he would benefit from a redshirt year.
Even then, his upside may be as a slightly above-average starter
in the league that needs to rely on play-action and a strong ground
game.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
